Abstract
The paper is an account of Finland’s unexpected upcoming deceleration in the economy at the end of 2011 and later. The deleveraging of the financial sector and the debt crisis made the nation fear an inevitable recession. To sustain this vulnerable situation, due attention was given to short-term growth and long-term challenges. Banks were encouraged to build up capitals and toughen bank decrees. Plans were made to multiply labor power and productivity. At the end of the paper, the Board welcomed the commitment of the state in improving and safeguarding the financial sector.
1. This statement summarizes developments in Finland since the issuance of the staff report (www.imf.org). The additional information does not change the thrust of the staff appraisal.
2. Economic developments in 2011 have proven somewhat weaker than indicated in the staff report, while staff now also projects lower growth in 2013.
• Recent revisions to the official data reveal that real GDP growth in 2011 reached 2.7 percent, down from the 2.9 percent previously estimated. In addition, revisions to the current account statistics now put the corresponding 2011 deficit at 1.2 percent of GDP, compared to 0.7 percent of GDP before.
• Real GDP growth for 2013 is now expected at 1.4 percent (compared to 1.6 percent in the staff report), reflecting up-to-date information pointing to a longer-lasting period of weak growth than anticipated in the staff report, owing to continuation of the weakness in the euro area. In particular, new orders in manufacturing continued their worsening trend in June and consumer confidence has deteriorated.
3. Staff projects the 2012 headline fiscal balance to be also slightly weaker. The deficit for 2012 is now expected at 1.3 percent of GDP (compared to 1.1 percent before), partly owing to lower-than-expected tax collections, which has prompted a downward revision of general government revenue.