Prepared by Charleen Gust.
Staff estimates suggest that the old-age dependency ratio (the ratio of the population age 65 and older to the working age population) is projected to nearly double from around 18 percent to 36 percent between 2010 and 2050, about the same pace as in advanced economies.
A standard POIM rule, which implies a stable nonoil deficit on average over time, is also shown for completeness. Such a rule would imply a very large consolidation in the medium-term but would allow a higher level of consumption of oil wealth in the outer years (i.e. after oil runs out) than under the POIM-real criterion rule.
See “Is Russia’s 2011–13 Budget Growth-Friendly” in Russian Federation: 2011 Selected Issues Paper for details of the GIMF model and how it has been applied in the Russian context.