INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Abstract

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Title Page

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

TONGA

STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2012 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION–INFORMATIONAL ANNEX

Prepared By

The Asia and Pacific Department

(In consultation with other departments)

Contents

  • I. FUND RELATIONS

  • II. PACIFIC FINANCIAL TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE CENTRE (PFTAC) COUNTRY STRATEGY 2012–14

  • III. WORLD BANK–IMF COLLABORATION

  • IV. RELATIONS WITH THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

  • V. STATISTICAL ISSUES

ANNEX I. TONGA: FUND RELATIONS1

Membership Status:

Joined September 13, 1985; Article VIII.

General Resources Account:

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SDR Department:

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Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None.

Financial Arrangements: None.

Projected Obligations to Fund:*

(SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs)

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* When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

Exchange Rate Arrangement:

Tonga has accepted the obligations under Article VIII, Sections 2(a), 3 and 4 and maintains an exchange system that is free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international. Since February 11, 1991, the value of the pa’anga is determined based on a weighted basket of currencies comprising the United States, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, with the U.S. dollar as the intervention currency. In July 2000, the Japanese yen was added to the basket, and the monthly maximum adjustment limit was raised to 5 percent from 2 percent that had prevailed since March 1998, when the allowance for adjustment was introduced. Tonga has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4.

Last Article IV Consultation:

Staff discussions were held during March 2011 and the Executive Board discussed the staff report (IMF Country Report No. 11/110) on May 4, 2011.

Previous Fund Recommendations:

The staff and the authorities have continued to share comprehensive views in the past about policy priorities. During the 2011 consultation, Executive Directors noted that the policy challenge was to reduce the country’s vulnerabilities and to boost potential growth. They stressed the importance of fiscal consolidation in ensuring fiscal sustainability and expanding fiscal space to respond to future shocks. But the authorities have followed more moderate steps, primarily owing to capacity constraints and a change in government. Shortcomings continue to be mainly in the area of fiscal policy, where staff recommended reducing current spending, carefully prioritizing spending, improving tax administration, and improving transparency. Staff also recommended setting up a comprehensive medium-term budget framework, improving fiscal management, and strenthening debt management. Progress has been made in setting up a medium-term budget framework.

Technical Assistance:

Legal Department (LEG) has provided assistance on AML/CFT issues for the Pacific islands countries, including Tonga, with an emphasis on risk management.

Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) has provided assistance on budgetary management; tax administration; banking legislation and supervision; and balance of payments and national accounts statistics.

Resident Representative: None.

Annex II. Tonga: Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) Country Strategy 2012–141

Background

Tonga has faced a difficult macroeconomic environment in recent times. Following the global economic crisis growth stagnated, remittances fell and fiscal revenues declined sharply. The financial sector also came under pressure as a result of high levels of non-performing loans in the banking sector. High debt levels constrained fiscal space and the authorities approached development partners to provide budget support to enable key services to continue. Recent donor conferences have endorsed the authorities’ prudent fiscal strategy and development partners are currently working on a joint policy matrix to underpin budget support—technical assistance (TA) will be critical for successful implementation.

PFTAC has provided TA to Tonga in all sectors in recent years, collaborating closely with other development partners. This has been particularly so in the public financial management (PFM) area where PFTAC has been working with the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) to assist the authorities design and implement a realistic reform roadmap. Regular TA has also been provided in the compilation of National Accounts and Balance of Payment statistics. Support has also been provided to the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) in offsite and onsite banking supervision (IMF HQ has also provided TA for on-site supervision) and in exchange rate management.

Strategy 2012–14

PFTAC’s TA strategy is guided by the APD regional strategy note and is planned within the results framework for current PFTAC funding cycle.2 This strategy was discussed with the authorities in June 2011.

PFTAC TA aims to support the authorities sustain progress on fiscal consolidation and to improve the macroeconomic environment. PFTAC will continue to work closely with the broader development partner group to ensure coherence and will aim to support implementation of actions in the development partners’ budget support reform matrix. Inputs are expected in all sectors, primarily at the strategic level in the fiscal and statistics sectors with detailed training and capacity building in bank supervision and macroeconomics.

PFTAC TA aims to support the authorities sustain progress on fiscal consolidation and to improve the macroeconomic environment. PFTAC will continue to work closely with the broader development partner group to ensure coherence and will aim to support implementation of actions in the development partners’ budget support reform matrix. Inputs are expected in all sectors, primarily at the strategic level in the fiscal and statistics sectors with detailed training and capacity building in bank supervision and macroeconomics.

In the public financial management area, the focus will primarily be, together with AsDB, on refining the PFM roadmap developed on the basis of the 2010 Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment (1.2). PFTAC will contribute specific technical areas to support the AsDB project that aims to develop an effective medium-term budget framework (1.5). These are likely to be in more accurate macroeconomic analysis (5.1) and more rigorous cash/debt management (1.6). In the medium term, PFTAC would look to assist the authorities implement a follow-up PEFA assessment, probably in 2014 (1.1).

In the revenue area, the main focus will be assisting the authorities implement the recommendations of the PFTAC strategic revenue review The review and PFTAC’s regional benchmarking exercise showed that Tonga is one of the regional leaders in terms of implementing modern administrative practices; Tonga is also expected to continue to have access to resident TA through AusAID. PFTAC inputs will be determined by ongoing discussions with Ministry of Finance and the revenue administration and are likely to be reliant on resident advisors. PFTAC’s specific inputs are likely to be focused on policy enhancements, including natural resource taxation (2.1), IT development (2.3), and risk management and compliance strategies (2.5).

In statistics, Tonga is relatively well advanced against the overall results framework; based on PFTAC advice, it produces National Accounts on two independent measures (4.1) with production of a range of income indicators (4.3). Balance of payments statistics are now being developed according to BPM6 standards (4.8). However, the quality of statistics and source data need to be strengthened which is being assisted by an AusAID funded resident advisor. As a result, direct PFTAC assistance is expected to reduce. PFTAC will, however, continue to coordinate with and be a resource for the resident advisor and be available to provide focused technical inputs in particular areas. This may include assistance with rebasing of the National Accounts (4.2) using new Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data. Balance of payments support will be provided by IMF HQ.

In financial sector supervision, IMF/PFTAC has assisted the NRBT establish enhanced off-site analysis (3.1 and 3.2) and has provided support to on-site bank supervision. Intensive support will be provided in 2012/13 to build on-site supervision techniques through training in standard procedures, reports and analytical techniques (3.5-3.7). PFTAC will also provide follow-up support on to ensure that NRBT can regularly prepare off-site analysis and monitoring reports (3.1-3.3) using base prudential returns developed by AFSPC. In 2013 this is likely to encompass implementation of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Financial Sector Information System (FSIS).

In the macroeconomic area, the PFTAC macroeconomic advisor will continue to develop measures of pass-through to inflation to assist NRBT enhance its macroeconomic policy making (5.1). PFTAC will coordinate with macroeconomic input under the ADB PFM TA project to ensure GDP and fiscal forecasting becomes more robust (5.3). The advisor may also support the development of debt sustainability analysis (5.4).

Annex III. Tonga: World Bank–IMF Collaboration1

The IMF team led by Mr. Jay Peiris (Mission Chief to Tonga) has a close working relationship with the Bank team led by Mr. Vivek Suri (Lead Economist, East Asia and the Pacific Region) and Mr. Robert Jauncey (Senior Country Officer). The teams have an ongoing dialog on a range of macroeconomic and structural issues.

The level of cooperation and coordination is good and includes the following:

  • Article IV Consultation. The World Bank participated in the 2009–12 Article IV missions as well as joining several consultations and providing various analytical inputs to the 2012 Article IV Report. This participation facilitated the discussions, especially in areas of mutual interest such as fiscal policy and structural reform. In addition, Bank and Fund staffs prepare jointly the Debt Sustainability Analysis appendix to the staff reports.

  • Economic Updates. Fund staff provided an “Assessment Letter” on Tonga’s macroeconomic situation. This public document was a key input to the Bank’s decision to provide budget support to Tonga. IMF analysis continues to provide a vital framework to the ongoing budget support program.

  • Structural Fiscal Reforms. Bank and Fund staffs have worked successfully to provide technical assistance in public expenditure management and continue to collaborate on the ongoing analytical work on public expenditure, the medium-term macro-framework and general structural issues.

Based on the above cooperation, the Bank and the Fund share a common view about Tonga’s macroeconomic and structural reform priorities, which mainly aim at mitigating the risks to Tonga’s external and fiscal sustainability and at promoting long-term growth. These include:

  • Putting public debt firmly on a downward path. This will require progress on multiple fronts over the medium term, including the effective implementation of current policy to avoid new borrowing, stepping up revenue administration and expenditure control, prioritizing expenditure, as well as structural reforms. The government’s fiscal efforts will need to be supplemented by continued provision of grants from donors.

  • Making use of the flexibility afforded by the current exchange rate arrangement. This remains critical for safeguarding external stability.

  • Promoting private drivers of growth. Given fundamental constraints of smallness and isolation, growth prospects are likely to remain concentrated in areas where premiums can be generated to cover higher costs of production. Natural resource industries, including tourism, agriculture, fisheries and mining hold the greatest potential for private sector development. To facilitate development in these areas there is a need to (i) improve efficiency in the energy sector to reduce costs (ii) strengthen the institutional framework for lending—including the enforcement of creditor rights to collateral—as a means to increase access to finance and lower the cost of borrowing; (iii) improve vital tourism infrastructure, including through privatization of the Dateline Hotel and commercialization of Tonga Communication Corporation; (iii) reduce the administrative burden placed on the private sector by the existing system of business licenses; and (iv) lower barriers to foreign investment.

World Bank Group cooperation with Tonga is set out in a Country Assistance Strategy presented to the Board in October 2010. Given the current depth of policy dialogue and Tonga’s difficult position, the Bank is significantly scaling up both analytical and financial support for Tonga. Total IDA and Trust Fund commitments to Tonga over the past three years amount to almost US$73 million, compared to $30 million between 1985–when Tonga became a member–and FY10. All assistance has been provided on 100 percent grant terms.

A key focus of engagement has been around energy-sector and general budget support operations. US$5 million was provided to energy-sector reforms in FY2011, with a series of two development policy operations–focusing on reforms in public financial management, fiscal policy and structural reforms–providing an additional US$14 million of Woirld Bank financing over FY2012–FY2013 through a World Bank-led multi-donor process.

Other World Bank investments are focused around connectivity for sustainable economic development, and include (i) a broadband cable, cofinanced with AsDB (US$17.2 million), (ii) transport sector reform, with PRIF and AusAID financing (US$14.7 million), and (iii) aviation sector support (US$27.2 million).

The World Bank provided TA to the Ministry of Finance and National Planning during FY2012 to strengthen budget execution, monitoring, reporting and transparency, and, with AusAID financing support, is providing additional TA support to the Public Service Commission in managing the current restructure.

The Bank and Fund teams will continue their close cooperation going forward, particularly in supporting the current program of budget support and to assist the Government in responding to ongoing economic difficulties.

Appendix I details the specific activities planned by the two country teams over the September 2010–September 2012 period. It was also agreed that further details on collaboration, as necessary, will be agreed at the technical level as work progresses.

Appendix I. Tonga: Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-Critical Structural Reform Areas (July 2011–July 2013)

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Annex IV. Tonga: Relations with the Asian Development Bank1

The goal of the Asian Development Bank’s (AsDB) Pacific Approach 2010–14 of a sustained and resilient and improved standard of living aligns with the vision of Tonga’s Strategic Development Framework 2009/2010– 2014/2015 (TSDF) to create a society in which all Tongans enjoy higher living standards and a better quality of life. Similarly, as the Pacific Approach aims to achieve its goal through inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth, the TSDF aspires to achieve its vision through equitable and environmentally sustainable private sector-led economic growth. AsDB’s country partnership strategy (CPS) 2007–12 for Tonga shares the same focus as the Pacific Approach and the TSDF.

AsDB’s support to Tonga will be through infrastructure development; renewable energy; effective, prudent macroeconomic and fiscal management; and private sector development. The Pacific Approach focuses on the need to mitigate environmental impact and strengthen cliamte change resilience through development of renewable energy options; enhancing connectivity via multimodal networks and new technologies; and supporting urban development. Two key drivers of change to promote the focus of the Pacific Approach include improved private sector environment and public sector management. The priority outcome objectives of the TSDF supported by AsDB are: (i) to support private sector through better engagement with government, appropriate incentives and streamlining rules and regulations, (ii) maintain and develop infrastructure to improve the everyday lives of people, and (iv) integrate environmental sustainability and climate change into all planning and executing of programs. AsDB’s strategy for Tonga is therefore consistent with the Pacific Approach and the TSDF.

AsDB has approved 15 loans and 4 grants totaling $94.86 million from the Asian Development Fund (ADF) to Tonga since it joined AsDB in 1972. Sixty one technical assistance (TA) projects with a value of $17.6 million were also provided to improve capacity and strengthen institutional development in various sectors. Past AsDB investments have focused on finance development and infrastructure development in transport, power, agriculture, and fisheries.

Active projects include two grant-financed projects and three TA projects in the country portfolio. The grant-financed program approved in 2009 helped Tonga mitigate the impact of the global economic crisis, while establishing the basis for higher, more equitable and sustainable growth in the medium term and creating an economy more resilient to future shocks. Another grant-financed project supports enhancing living standards by improving urban infrastructure. Of the three ongoing TA projects, one focuses on economic and strategic management as well as the development of a public finance management roadmap and a medium-term budget framework. Two TA projectss are supporting the preparation of the proposed Tonga-Fiji submarine cable project and the second phase of the integrated urban development project. Tonga also benefits from a number of regional technical assistance projects in private sector development, economic management, energy efficiency, and public financial management. Assistance to climate change adaptation amd mitigation activities will be made available, in particular, the pilot program for climate resilience will support the mainstreaming of climate change considerations into infrastructure development and through broader who-of-government institutional strengthening.

Tonga: Loan, Grant, and Technical Assistance Approvals, 2007–11

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Annex V. Tonga: Statistical Issues

While economic statistics are broadly adequate for surveillance, data deficiencies continue to complicate the monitoring of economic conditions and policy formulation. The Statistics Department (SD) and the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MOFNP) have received, on a regular basis, technical assistance in national accounts, government finance, and balance of payments (BOP) statistics from Fund’s Statistics department (STA) as well as the Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC); nevertheless, data provision to the Fund continues with long delays.

The two main sources of statistical information are the Quarterly Bulletin of the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT), and the annual and semi-annual budget reports from the MOFNP. The country has been participating in the GDDS since May 30, 2006. The metadata are posted on the Fund’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (http://dsbb.imf.org/Applications/web/gdds/gddscountrycategorylist/?strcode=TON).

Real Sector Statistics

Following PFTAC assistance in 2008 and 2009 a new series of national accounts was released in June 2009. The new series retains a 2000/01 base year but has been revised to improve coverage and estimation techniques. However, source data remains weak and needs to be improved to allow a long overdue rebase of the national accounts. The SD has obtained the assistance of a statistical advisor from New Zealand to improve the quality of the national accounts and balance of payments statistics. The advisor is helping implement the recommendations of the PFTAC technical assistance mission and expects improvements in the classification and valuation of inputs into the national accounts data.

The Consumer Price Index is based on a basket of goods and services from the 2000/01 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Technical assistance was provided in 2008 on the development of an import price index.

Labor market statistics are weak: employment statistics have not been compiled since 2003; and average earnings statistics are not available. Currently the migration data is insufficient, in particular the data on emigration to the United States.

Government Finance Statistics

The FY2002/03 Central Government Budget Statement introduced a presentation of fiscal data compiled according to the methodology of the 1986 Government Finance Statistics Manual. However, improvements are still needed to ensure accurate and reliable fiscal data. Proper classification of transactions is needed to permit reconciliation with monetary financing data. Lags in updating the accounting system should be shortened. Published data are often subject to significant revisions. Consolidated financial statistics for the broader public sector and general government are not published due to lack of capacity. No data are reported for publication in the IFS or GFS Yearbook.

External Sector Statistics

Official BOP statistics are compiled annually by the SD with long lags. Monthly trade figures, derived from customs data, are available with a three-month lag. Unofficially, the NRBT compiles monthly balance of payments statistics based on the Overseas Exchange Transactions (OET) records of the banking system with a six-week lag. There are significant differences between the BOP estimates compiled by the two agencies. Moreover, large errors and omissions point to possible under recording of imports. With regard to international investment positions, no information is published due to lack of capacity.

With PFTAC assistance in March 2009 the SD developed revised draft BoP statistics and methodology, and made recommendations for further improvements in compilation techniques and source data. A follow-up mission took place in March 2010. The MOFNP has put in place a system that provides detailed information on official sector external disbursements and debt service.

Monetary and Financial Statistics

NRBT reports data for the central bank, other depository corporations, and monetary aggregates using the standardized report forms (SRFs). These data were published for the first time in the March 2008 issue of IFS and IFS Supplement on Monetary and Financial Statistics. The NRBT will have to allocate resources to improve the quality of the monetary and financial statistics by obtaining source data suitable for compilation of the SRFs in line with the recommendations of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual. Technical assistance in monetary and financial statistics will be needed to improve the classification and sectorization of accounts once the new prudential reporting system has been introduced.

Tonga: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

As of April 30, 2012

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A), Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).

1

As of April 30, 2012.

1

As of March 2012.

2

See http://www-intranet.imf.org/departments/APD…ional Strategy Note_FY 2012–14_APD_Final.doc for the APD Regional Strategy Note. The specific result in the framework that activities target is identified in italics in the section, for example cash management is referred to as (1.6), where 1.6 is the code in the result framework in the program document.

1

As of April 2012.

1

As of April 2012.