The Vision set a GDP growth rate of 7% for 2016 and 2020. However, this target was set at a time when Lesotho was experiencing population growth of approximately 2% per annum. Now that population is remaining stable, a real economic growth rate of at least 5% would deliver a similar impact on per capita incomes and poverty reduction.
Data sources may differ in coverage, definitions, frequency and sampling errors. The data used in the MDG Update are not necessarily those referred to elsewhere in this Plan.
This forecast total of 1,972,791 in 2020 (derived from the 2006 Census) is considered more accurate than the estimate in the UN Human Development Report that the 2010 population is 2.1 million and that the growth rate will be 0.8% from 2010-2015.
Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey.
Bureau of Statistics, 2010.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shows the value added by the domestic economy. Net primary income from abroad is added to GDP to measure Gross National Income (GNI) and net transfers are added to GNI to measure Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI). Lesotho is unusual because Lesotho receives substantial inflows of net factor income from abroad, principally remittances from Basotho mine-workers. Therefore GNI is a more appropriate measure of Lesotho’s economic well-being than GDP, while GNDI determines the resources available for savings and consumption.
This Section is based on a number of forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the ‘World Economic Outlook’ (April 2011), the ‘Regional Economic Outlook – Sub-Saharan Africa – Recovery and New Risks’ (April 2011) and the ‘World Economic Outlook UPDATE’ (June 17, 2011) and by South Africa’s Treasury in the ‘Medium Term Budget Policy Statements’ (2011).
The Output Gap is an economic concept that measures the difference between actual GDP growth and its potential growth rate. For South Africa, the gap is currently estimated at approximately 3% of GDP (IMF: Regional Economic Outlook – Sub-Saharan Africa – Recovery and New Risks, April 2011).
South Africa Treasury ‘Medium Term Budget Policy Statements’ (2011).
The Human Development Index score is derived from life expectancy at birth of 45.9, 5.8 mean years of schooling, 10.3 expected years of schooling and GNI per capita of $ 2,021 (calculated at purchasing power parity).
World Bank, Poverty Assessment, 2010, page 24.
African Peer Review Mechanism, Country Report No. 12, June 2010, page 183.
World Bank, Poverty Assessment, 2010, page 26.
The Gender Index score is derived from a Maternal Mortality Rate of 960, adolescent fertility rate of 73.5, female MPs at 25.8%, female secondary education of 24.3%, female labour participation rate of 71.9%, married women contraceptive prevalence rate of 37.3%, at least one antenatal visit at 90% and 55% of deliveries with trained birth attendants.
The LDHS 2009 estimates the MMR as 1,155 per 100,000 live births but acknowledges that this calculation has wide confidence intervals.
The forecast only includes investment related to the transfer tunnel. It does NOT include investment connected with possible hydroelectric generation as plans for that are not yet finalised.
This Forecast represents the current “best estimate” of the probable evolution of the economy up to 2016/17. However, there will inevitably be movements around the trend. Some of the core investments may be delayed; other activities, not captured in this forecast, may occur as investors respond to emerging commercial opportunities.
As outlined in South Africa’s New Growth Path, 2011.
The original forecast of the Customs Revenue Pool in 2008/09 was used to determine distributions to member states but the global financial and economic crisis meant that actual collections were substantially less than anticipated. Distributions in 2010/11 were far below average as the forecast was more conservative and members had to repay excess amounts from 2008/09.
Lesotho Post Disaster Needs Assessment, May 2011.
Producers based in Lesotho would be required to undertake at least two production processes in country or using materials sourced through other qualifying countries in order to remain eligible for quota and duty free access to the US textile market.
World Bank Doing Business Indicators: the DBI ranks more than 180 countries based on ten categories (starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registering a property, getting electricity, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and closing a business).
Such as World Bank Business Enterprise Surveys and Global Competitiveness Reports.
According to the World Bank Doing Business Indicators (2012), Lesotho is the worst performer in SACU: South Africa ranks 35, Botswana 54, Namibia 78 and Swaziland 124. Other textile exporters in East Asia also score better.
These are subsidiaries of South African banks and their assets account for 90.3 per cent of the total assets of the banking sector in Lesotho
LNDC cannot profitably finance the construction of factory shells as rents are subsidised through a rent ceiling set by MTICM. LNDC rents of M10/m2 per month are substantially lower than the commercial alternatives. This results in an implicit annual subsidy which is the equivalent of M1,400 per worker (in the textiles subsector) and M6,000 per worker (in other manufacturing).
The cost of providing factory shells and associated transport and infrastructure is approximately M 350 million for every 10,000 jobs to be created.
A large number of these were Guesthouses and B&Bs in the Maseru urban area.
The average bed occupancy rate was only 17.9% in 2009.
LHWP is a complex programme of engineering works that transfers water that would otherwise flow down the Orange River into South Africa into the Vaal catchment area, where is can be used more productively
MOHSW (2009): Demographic and Health Survey, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare.
NAC, UNAIDS (2009) Modes of Transmission Report, National AIDS Council, United Nations Joint Programme on HIV and AIDS.