Guinea: 2011 Article IV Consultation and Requests for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and for Additional Interim Assistance Under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries—Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea.

2011 Article IV Consultation and Requests for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and for Additional Interim Assistance Under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries—Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea.

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publication Date:: 26 Mar 2012

eISBN:: 9781475502602

Language:: English

Keywords:: ISCR; CR; financing; government; authority; Paris Club creditor; debt relief; central bank; Guinean authorities; fiscal policy; broad money; Mining sector; Debt relief; Africa; Global; foreign exchange

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This paper presents Guinea’s 2011 Article IV Consultation and requests for a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. The macroeconomic improvement in 2011 has been mainly owed to sharp fiscal adjustment. The deficit on the budget’s basic balance has been reduced from 13 percent of GDP in 2010 to an estimated 2.5 percent of GDP, while monetary financing of the budget has been avoided in an effort to reduce excess liquidity stemming from large central bank advances in 2009–10. Key medium-term challenges are to reduce inflation while preparing the economy for an expected substantial increase in mining activity.

Abstract

I. A new beginning

1. Guinea’s outlook has improved significantly over the course of 2011. During 2010, the country transitioned from a military regime and underwent a tense election process. The new government inherited a stagnating economy and serious macroeconomic imbalances. One year later, an improved political environment and strong stabilization efforts have contributed to resurgent growth, a sharp decline in the fiscal deficit, and an improved international reserves position. The resolution of a long-standing dispute with a foreign mining company resulted in a one-off payment ($700 million, some 15 percent of GDP)¹ in 2011, improving the government’s ability to start addressing urgent public-sector investment needs. The positive outlook for political stability and better governance has led to the start of large new private investment in the mining sector, raising the prospect that economic activity will expand sharply following the start of production by the middle of the decade.

2. But major challenges remain. A legacy of weak governance and intermittent periods of domestic unrest has left Guinea among Africa’s poorest countries (Figure 1), a fragile state with weak institutions and limited technical capacity. The transition toward full constitutional rule remains to be completed by legislative elections; the consolidation of political stability also depends on security sector reform. Reducing still-high inflation will be important to maintain support for the stabilization and reform effort. Over the medium term, the recent windfall revenue and the expected boom in the mining sector present major challenges for Guinea to ensure that its natural resource wealth translates into broad-based poverty reduction and sustained and diversified economic growth.

II. Recent Economic Developments

3. The government’s main macroeconomic objective for 2011 was to sharply reduce the imbalances. The abandonment of fiscal control under the 2009–10 military regime resulted in a large fiscal deficit, sharp monetary expansion, and external arrears. By end-2010, annual inflation was over 20 percent and climbing, the market exchange rate was depreciating rapidly, and external reserves covered less than 1 month of imports (Figure 2; Tables 1-4). In its economic program for 2011, which was monitored by Fund staff, ² the government’s stabilization policies focused on bringing inflation and the fiscal deficit under control, and on tightening monetary policy. Structural reform priorities included improving public financial management and governance in the mining sector.

Table 1.

Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008–16

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Growth of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou, expected to start production in 2015.

^{^2/}In percent of the broad money stock at the beginning of the period.

^{^3/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^4/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^5/}In months of imports excluding imports for large foreign-financed mining projects.

Table 1.

Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008–16

				2008	2009	2010	2011			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
							Prog.	Est Sep	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
				(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
National accounts and prices
	GDP at constant prices			4.9	−0.3	1.9	4.0		3.6	4.7	4.8	5.0	19.8	19.9
		Excluding large mining project ^1/		4.9	−0.3	1.9	4.0		3.6	4.7	4.8	5.0	5.0	5.0
	GDP deflator			14.1	6.8	20.2	19.6		21.0	12.3	7.9	5.8	5.4	5.2
	GDP at market prices			19.7	6.5	22.5	24.3		25.3	17.6	13.1	11.2	26.3	26.2
	Consumer prices
		Average		18.4	4.7	15.5	19.6	21.1	21.4	15.0	11.2	7.3	6.0	5.9
		End of Period		13.5	7.9	20.8	17.1	21.0	19.0	12.0	8.7	6.2	5.9	5.9
External sector
	Exports, f.o.b. (in US$ terms)			28.2	−21.3	15.3	17.9		11.7	11.4	3.5	5.4	74.3	51.9
	Imports, f.o.b. (in US$ terms)			12.2	−19.8	28.2	28.5		18.3	72.3	10.6	3.6	15.2	8.6
	Average effective exchange rate (depreciation -)
		Nominal index		−13.4	3.3	17.0	…		…	…	…	…	…	…
		Real index		−2.2	7.1	8.2	…		…	…	…	…	…	…
Money and credit
	Net Foreign Assets ^2/			14.3	4.7	−5.5	43.4	49.1	36.9	−9.6	…	…	…	…
	Net Domestic Assets ^2/			24.7	21.2	79.9	−36.6	−37.8	−21.4	15.6	…	…	…	…
		Net Claims on government ^2/		20.8	28.7	67.9	−38.0	−47.6	−30.1	5.4	…	…	…	…
		Credit to nongovernment sector ^2/		1.9	3.1	8.9	3.5	10.4	11.1	12.7	…	…	…	…
	Reserve Money			13.8	81.7	73.0	1.7	−1.7	4.4	−7.5	…	…	…	…
	Broad money (M2)			39.0	25.9	74.4	6.8	11.2	15.5	6.1	…	…	…	…
	Interest rate (short term T-bill)			21.5	15.0	13.0	…	13.0	13.0	…	…	…	…	…
				(Percent of GDP)
Central government finances ^3/
	Total revenue and grants			16.1	16.5	15.7	20.7	15.0	21.1	22.0	22.5	22.9	25.2	26.8
		Revenue		15.6	16.2	15.3	17.2	12.5	17.7	18.8	19.5	19.8	22.9	24.9
			Of which: nonmining revenue	12.1	12.9	11.5	13.0	9.2	13.2	15.1	15.6	15.9	16.2	17.3
		Grants		0.5	0.4	0.4	3.5	2.5	3.4	3.2	3.0	3.1	2.3	2.0
	Total expenditure and net lending			17.5	23.7	29.7	23.1	13.8	24.1	28.7	25.9	26.6	28.7	30.3
		Current expenditure		13.4	16.5	20.5	16.3	11.3	16.0	16.8	15.9	15.5	15.1	14.5
			Of which: interest payments	2.6	2.1	2.0	1.8	1.1	1.8	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.0
		Capital expenditure and net lending		4.0	7.2	9.1	6.7	2.6	8.1	11.9	10.0	11.0	13.7	15.7
	Overall budget balance ^4/
		Including grants (commitment)		−1.3	−7.1	−14.0	−2.4	1.2	−2.9	−6.7	−3.4	−3.7	−3.5	−3.4
		Excluding grants (commitment)		−1.8	−7.5	−14.4	−5.9	−1.3	−6.4	−9.9	−6.4	−6.7	−5.8	−5.4
	Basic fiscal balance			1.6	−5.6	−12.6	−2.0	0.6	−2.5	−3.8	−0.7	−0.9	0.2	1.7
National accounts
	Gross capital formation			17.5	11.4	10.6	18.1		15.0	37.3	44.1	43.9	33.7	17.7
	Domestic savings			12.4	7.2	2.4	8.0		5.8	6.2	9.3	10.0	17.7	18.6
Current account balance
	Including official transfers			−10.3	−9.9	−12.4	−9.7		−6.6	−34.9	−38.8	−37.9	−19.1	−1.8
	Excluding official transfers			−10.7	−9.9	−12.4	−12.1		−8.9	−35.0	−38.8	−37.9	−19.1	−1.8
Overall balance of payments				−0.9	5.3	−3.6	11.3		9.5	−5.9	−4.0	−4.0	3.2	0.8
				(US$ millions, unless otherwise indicated)
Memorandum Items:
	Exports f.o.b.			1,470.8	1,157.4	1,334.9	1,508.6		1,490.6	1,660.8	1,718.2	1,811.8	3,158.9	4,798.0
	Imports f.o.b.			1,366.1	1,096.1	1,404.9	1,677.0		1,661.4	2,862.5	3,165.3	3,279.2	3,777.2	4,103.4
	Overall balance of payments			−42.4	245.9	−177.8	527.1		497.7	−323.7	−227.6	−241.3	232.0	69.5
	Net foreign assets (central bank)			−14.1	97.9	44.3	603.6	754.4	590.6	381.6	357.3	324.8	684.4	843.7
	Gross available reserves (months of imports) ^5/			0.6	0.8	0.8	5.5	5.9	4.5	3.3	3.3	3.1	4.1	5.2
	External debt stock (percent of GNFS exports)			197.6	261.2	225.0	200.6		200.1	169.8	162.9	154.5	90.7	63.3
	Nominal GDP (GNF billions)			20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145		33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	63,442	80,039

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Growth of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou, expected to start production in 2015.

^{^2/}In percent of the broad money stock at the beginning of the period.

^{^3/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^4/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^5/}In months of imports excluding imports for large foreign-financed mining projects.

Table 1.

Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008–16

				2008	2009	2010	2011			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
							Prog.	Est Sep	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
				(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
National accounts and prices
	GDP at constant prices			4.9	−0.3	1.9	4.0		3.6	4.7	4.8	5.0	19.8	19.9
		Excluding large mining project ^1/		4.9	−0.3	1.9	4.0		3.6	4.7	4.8	5.0	5.0	5.0
	GDP deflator			14.1	6.8	20.2	19.6		21.0	12.3	7.9	5.8	5.4	5.2
	GDP at market prices			19.7	6.5	22.5	24.3		25.3	17.6	13.1	11.2	26.3	26.2
	Consumer prices
		Average		18.4	4.7	15.5	19.6	21.1	21.4	15.0	11.2	7.3	6.0	5.9
		End of Period		13.5	7.9	20.8	17.1	21.0	19.0	12.0	8.7	6.2	5.9	5.9
External sector
	Exports, f.o.b. (in US$ terms)			28.2	−21.3	15.3	17.9		11.7	11.4	3.5	5.4	74.3	51.9
	Imports, f.o.b. (in US$ terms)			12.2	−19.8	28.2	28.5		18.3	72.3	10.6	3.6	15.2	8.6
	Average effective exchange rate (depreciation -)
		Nominal index		−13.4	3.3	17.0	…		…	…	…	…	…	…
		Real index		−2.2	7.1	8.2	…		…	…	…	…	…	…
Money and credit
	Net Foreign Assets ^2/			14.3	4.7	−5.5	43.4	49.1	36.9	−9.6	…	…	…	…
	Net Domestic Assets ^2/			24.7	21.2	79.9	−36.6	−37.8	−21.4	15.6	…	…	…	…
		Net Claims on government ^2/		20.8	28.7	67.9	−38.0	−47.6	−30.1	5.4	…	…	…	…
		Credit to nongovernment sector ^2/		1.9	3.1	8.9	3.5	10.4	11.1	12.7	…	…	…	…
	Reserve Money			13.8	81.7	73.0	1.7	−1.7	4.4	−7.5	…	…	…	…
	Broad money (M2)			39.0	25.9	74.4	6.8	11.2	15.5	6.1	…	…	…	…
	Interest rate (short term T-bill)			21.5	15.0	13.0	…	13.0	13.0	…	…	…	…	…
				(Percent of GDP)
Central government finances ^3/
	Total revenue and grants			16.1	16.5	15.7	20.7	15.0	21.1	22.0	22.5	22.9	25.2	26.8
		Revenue		15.6	16.2	15.3	17.2	12.5	17.7	18.8	19.5	19.8	22.9	24.9
			Of which: nonmining revenue	12.1	12.9	11.5	13.0	9.2	13.2	15.1	15.6	15.9	16.2	17.3
		Grants		0.5	0.4	0.4	3.5	2.5	3.4	3.2	3.0	3.1	2.3	2.0
	Total expenditure and net lending			17.5	23.7	29.7	23.1	13.8	24.1	28.7	25.9	26.6	28.7	30.3
		Current expenditure		13.4	16.5	20.5	16.3	11.3	16.0	16.8	15.9	15.5	15.1	14.5
			Of which: interest payments	2.6	2.1	2.0	1.8	1.1	1.8	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.0
		Capital expenditure and net lending		4.0	7.2	9.1	6.7	2.6	8.1	11.9	10.0	11.0	13.7	15.7
	Overall budget balance ^4/
		Including grants (commitment)		−1.3	−7.1	−14.0	−2.4	1.2	−2.9	−6.7	−3.4	−3.7	−3.5	−3.4
		Excluding grants (commitment)		−1.8	−7.5	−14.4	−5.9	−1.3	−6.4	−9.9	−6.4	−6.7	−5.8	−5.4
	Basic fiscal balance			1.6	−5.6	−12.6	−2.0	0.6	−2.5	−3.8	−0.7	−0.9	0.2	1.7
National accounts
	Gross capital formation			17.5	11.4	10.6	18.1		15.0	37.3	44.1	43.9	33.7	17.7
	Domestic savings			12.4	7.2	2.4	8.0		5.8	6.2	9.3	10.0	17.7	18.6
Current account balance
	Including official transfers			−10.3	−9.9	−12.4	−9.7		−6.6	−34.9	−38.8	−37.9	−19.1	−1.8
	Excluding official transfers			−10.7	−9.9	−12.4	−12.1		−8.9	−35.0	−38.8	−37.9	−19.1	−1.8
Overall balance of payments				−0.9	5.3	−3.6	11.3		9.5	−5.9	−4.0	−4.0	3.2	0.8
				(US$ millions, unless otherwise indicated)
Memorandum Items:
	Exports f.o.b.			1,470.8	1,157.4	1,334.9	1,508.6		1,490.6	1,660.8	1,718.2	1,811.8	3,158.9	4,798.0
	Imports f.o.b.			1,366.1	1,096.1	1,404.9	1,677.0		1,661.4	2,862.5	3,165.3	3,279.2	3,777.2	4,103.4
	Overall balance of payments			−42.4	245.9	−177.8	527.1		497.7	−323.7	−227.6	−241.3	232.0	69.5
	Net foreign assets (central bank)			−14.1	97.9	44.3	603.6	754.4	590.6	381.6	357.3	324.8	684.4	843.7
	Gross available reserves (months of imports) ^5/			0.6	0.8	0.8	5.5	5.9	4.5	3.3	3.3	3.1	4.1	5.2
	External debt stock (percent of GNFS exports)			197.6	261.2	225.0	200.6		200.1	169.8	162.9	154.5	90.7	63.3
	Nominal GDP (GNF billions)			20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145		33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	63,442	80,039

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Growth of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou, expected to start production in 2015.

^{^2/}In percent of the broad money stock at the beginning of the period.

^{^3/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^4/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^5/}In months of imports excluding imports for large foreign-financed mining projects.

Table 2a.

Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2008–16

(Billions of Guinean franc)

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Revenue minus expenditures excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.

^{^2/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^3/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^4/}For 2011, the program assumed toleration of arrears by Paris Club and other bilateral creditors.

For the columns 2011 Est. Sep and 2011 proj, figures show actual accrual of arrears.

^{^5/}For 2012 and following years, assumes Paris Club debt relief for end-2011 arrears and maturities falling due in 2012-14 on terms similar to those under the 2008 Paris Club agreement. Comparable terms are assumed for other bilateral creditors. HIPC/MDRI relief is assumed to be delivered effective October 2012.

Table 2a.

Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2008–16

(Billions of Guinean franc)

					2008	2009	2010	2011			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
								Prog.	Est Sep	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
Revenue and grants					3,352	3,662	4,258	6,848	5,092	7,173	8,798	10,156	11,509	14,028	16,542
	Revenue				3,249	3,582	4,155	5,687	4,245	6,012	7,526	8,795	9,968	12,742	15,336
		Mining sector			738	725	1,032	1,383	1,117	1,518	1,489	1,741	1,981	3,741	4,648
		Non-mining sector			2,511	2,857	3,123	4,303	3,128	4,494	6,037	7,054	7,987	9,000	10,689
			Direct taxes		508	677	732	934	810	976	1,168	1,354	1,542	1,750	1,989
			Indirect taxes		1,814	1,902	2,212	3,020	2,043	2,845	4,576	5,361	6,057	6,811	8,201
				Taxes on goods and services	1,244	1,292	1,526	2,180	1,368	1,943	3,022	3,502	3,991	4,527	5,146
				Taxes on international trade	570	610	685	840	675	902	1,554	1,858	2,067	2,284	3,055
			Non-tax revenue		189	278	180	349	275	674	293	340	387	439	499
	Grants				103	81	103	1,161	848	1,161	1,272	1,361	1,540	1,286	1,206
		Project grants			103	81	103	381	262	381	1,223	1,361	1,540	1,286	1,206
		Budget support			0	0	0	780	586	780	49	0	0	0	0
Total expenditures and net lending					3,627	5,240	8,049	7,650	4,698	8,175	11,465	11,703	13,343	15,970	18,663
	Current expenditures				2,787	3,655	5,570	5,419	3,828	5,434	6,696	7,179	7,800	8,373	8,956
		Primary current expenditures			2,237	3,195	5,023	4,838	3,464	4,837	5,961	6,436	7,016	7,551	8,337
			Wages and salaries		860	1,109	1,551	2,061	1,319	1,824	2,124	2,384	2,559	2,754	3,062
			Goods and services		988	1,361	2,546	1,618	1,319	1,891	2,182	2,423	2,666	2,869	3,130
			Subsidies and transfers		388	725	926	1,159	826	1,122	1,655	1,629	1,792	1,928	2,144
		Interest on debt			550	461	547	580	364	597	735	742	784	822	620
			Domestic debt		274	326	356	304	168	304	352	398	442	489	298
			External debt		276	135	191	276	196	293	383	345	341	333	322
	Capital expenditures				837	1,577	2,479	2,227	870	2,737	4,759	4,512	5,529	7,582	9,690
		Domestically financed			396	1,273	2,187	1,207	422	1,715	2,704	2,225	2,941	4,557	5,601
		Capital transfer			5	19	13	15	8	17	16	19	21	23	25
		Externally financed			436	285	279	1,006	441	1,006	2,039	2,269	2,567	3,002	4,063
	Net lending & restructuring expenditure				3	8	0	4	0	4	11	12	14	15	17
Basic fiscal balance ^1/					334	−1,239	−3,424	−663	183	−864	−1,518	−295	−466	106	1,058
	in percent of GDP ^2/				1.6	−5.6	−12.6	−2.0	0.5	−2.5	−3.8	−0.7	−0.9	0.2	1.7
Overall balance, commitment basis ^3/
	Excluding grants				−379	−1,658	−3,894	−1,963	−453	−2,162	−3,939	−2,908	−3,374	−3,228	−3,326
	Including grants				−276	−1,578	−3,791	−802	394	−1,001	−2,667	−1,547	−1,834	−1,942	−2,121
Financing					332	1,650	3,861	−1,966	−418	1,001	−857	376	493	1,015	1,241
	Domestic financing				225	1,686	3,801	1,112	−102	1,525	2,291	720	755	776	−256
		Bank financing			472	1,349	4,037	−3,943	−4,964	−3,120	650	913	966	1,009	0
			Central bank, of which		50	1,364	2,871	−4,243	−5,087	−3,420	650	913	966	1,009	0
				Special Investment Fund							−2,888	913	966	1,009	0
			Commercial banks		422	−15	1,166	300	123	300	0	0	0	0	0
		Nonbank financing			−247	337	−236	5,055	4,862	4,645	1,641	−193	−212	−233	−256
			Privatization revenue		69	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			Amortization of domestic debt		−339	−39	−124	−206	−2	−206	−179	−197	−216	−238	−262
			Change in arrears		−25	0	−157	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			Change in float		48	118	23	30	24	30	0	0	0	0	0
			Exceptional revenue ^3/		0	0	0	4,981	4,583	4,583	1,816	0	0	0	0
			Other		0	258	22	251	185	237	4	4	4	5	5
	External financing				108	−36	60	−3,077	−316	−524	−3,148	−344	−262	239	1,497
		Drawings			333	204	177	624	517	624	815	907	1,027	1,715	2,858
		Amortization due			−636	−443	−605	−1,151	−712	−1,166	−1,243	−1,252	−1,288	−1,476	−1,360
		Debt relief and interim HIPC assistance			251	11	149	122	358	567	0	0	0	0	0
		Change in arrears (- = reduction) ^4/			159	192	340	−2,673	−478	−549	−2,721	0	0	0	0
Errors and omissions					−57	−73	−70	0	92	0	0	0	0	0	0
Financing gap					0	0	0	2,768		0	3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
Possible financing (incl. debt relief) ^5/								398		0	3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
	Of which: Debt relief and HIPC interim assistance ^5/										3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
Residual financing gap								2,369		0	0	0	0	0	0
	Of which: forbearance on external debt							2,369		0
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	63,442	80,039
Nominal GDP excl. Simandou production					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	55,590	61,642

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Revenue minus expenditures excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.

^{^2/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^3/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^4/}For 2011, the program assumed toleration of arrears by Paris Club and other bilateral creditors.

For the columns 2011 Est. Sep and 2011 proj, figures show actual accrual of arrears.

Table 2a.

Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2008–16

(Billions of Guinean franc)

					2008	2009	2010	2011			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
								Prog.	Est Sep	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
Revenue and grants					3,352	3,662	4,258	6,848	5,092	7,173	8,798	10,156	11,509	14,028	16,542
	Revenue				3,249	3,582	4,155	5,687	4,245	6,012	7,526	8,795	9,968	12,742	15,336
		Mining sector			738	725	1,032	1,383	1,117	1,518	1,489	1,741	1,981	3,741	4,648
		Non-mining sector			2,511	2,857	3,123	4,303	3,128	4,494	6,037	7,054	7,987	9,000	10,689
			Direct taxes		508	677	732	934	810	976	1,168	1,354	1,542	1,750	1,989
			Indirect taxes		1,814	1,902	2,212	3,020	2,043	2,845	4,576	5,361	6,057	6,811	8,201
				Taxes on goods and services	1,244	1,292	1,526	2,180	1,368	1,943	3,022	3,502	3,991	4,527	5,146
				Taxes on international trade	570	610	685	840	675	902	1,554	1,858	2,067	2,284	3,055
			Non-tax revenue		189	278	180	349	275	674	293	340	387	439	499
	Grants				103	81	103	1,161	848	1,161	1,272	1,361	1,540	1,286	1,206
		Project grants			103	81	103	381	262	381	1,223	1,361	1,540	1,286	1,206
		Budget support			0	0	0	780	586	780	49	0	0	0	0
Total expenditures and net lending					3,627	5,240	8,049	7,650	4,698	8,175	11,465	11,703	13,343	15,970	18,663
	Current expenditures				2,787	3,655	5,570	5,419	3,828	5,434	6,696	7,179	7,800	8,373	8,956
		Primary current expenditures			2,237	3,195	5,023	4,838	3,464	4,837	5,961	6,436	7,016	7,551	8,337
			Wages and salaries		860	1,109	1,551	2,061	1,319	1,824	2,124	2,384	2,559	2,754	3,062
			Goods and services		988	1,361	2,546	1,618	1,319	1,891	2,182	2,423	2,666	2,869	3,130
			Subsidies and transfers		388	725	926	1,159	826	1,122	1,655	1,629	1,792	1,928	2,144
		Interest on debt			550	461	547	580	364	597	735	742	784	822	620
			Domestic debt		274	326	356	304	168	304	352	398	442	489	298
			External debt		276	135	191	276	196	293	383	345	341	333	322
	Capital expenditures				837	1,577	2,479	2,227	870	2,737	4,759	4,512	5,529	7,582	9,690
		Domestically financed			396	1,273	2,187	1,207	422	1,715	2,704	2,225	2,941	4,557	5,601
		Capital transfer			5	19	13	15	8	17	16	19	21	23	25
		Externally financed			436	285	279	1,006	441	1,006	2,039	2,269	2,567	3,002	4,063
	Net lending & restructuring expenditure				3	8	0	4	0	4	11	12	14	15	17
Basic fiscal balance ^1/					334	−1,239	−3,424	−663	183	−864	−1,518	−295	−466	106	1,058
	in percent of GDP ^2/				1.6	−5.6	−12.6	−2.0	0.5	−2.5	−3.8	−0.7	−0.9	0.2	1.7
Overall balance, commitment basis ^3/
	Excluding grants				−379	−1,658	−3,894	−1,963	−453	−2,162	−3,939	−2,908	−3,374	−3,228	−3,326
	Including grants				−276	−1,578	−3,791	−802	394	−1,001	−2,667	−1,547	−1,834	−1,942	−2,121
Financing					332	1,650	3,861	−1,966	−418	1,001	−857	376	493	1,015	1,241
	Domestic financing				225	1,686	3,801	1,112	−102	1,525	2,291	720	755	776	−256
		Bank financing			472	1,349	4,037	−3,943	−4,964	−3,120	650	913	966	1,009	0
			Central bank, of which		50	1,364	2,871	−4,243	−5,087	−3,420	650	913	966	1,009	0
				Special Investment Fund							−2,888	913	966	1,009	0
			Commercial banks		422	−15	1,166	300	123	300	0	0	0	0	0
		Nonbank financing			−247	337	−236	5,055	4,862	4,645	1,641	−193	−212	−233	−256
			Privatization revenue		69	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			Amortization of domestic debt		−339	−39	−124	−206	−2	−206	−179	−197	−216	−238	−262
			Change in arrears		−25	0	−157	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
			Change in float		48	118	23	30	24	30	0	0	0	0	0
			Exceptional revenue ^3/		0	0	0	4,981	4,583	4,583	1,816	0	0	0	0
			Other		0	258	22	251	185	237	4	4	4	5	5
	External financing				108	−36	60	−3,077	−316	−524	−3,148	−344	−262	239	1,497
		Drawings			333	204	177	624	517	624	815	907	1,027	1,715	2,858
		Amortization due			−636	−443	−605	−1,151	−712	−1,166	−1,243	−1,252	−1,288	−1,476	−1,360
		Debt relief and interim HIPC assistance			251	11	149	122	358	567	0	0	0	0	0
		Change in arrears (- = reduction) ^4/			159	192	340	−2,673	−478	−549	−2,721	0	0	0	0
Errors and omissions					−57	−73	−70	0	92	0	0	0	0	0	0
Financing gap					0	0	0	2,768		0	3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
Possible financing (incl. debt relief) ^5/								398		0	3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
	Of which: Debt relief and HIPC interim assistance ^5/										3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
Residual financing gap								2,369		0	0	0	0	0	0
	Of which: forbearance on external debt							2,369		0
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	63,442	80,039
Nominal GDP excl. Simandou production					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	55,590	61,642

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Revenue minus expenditures excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.

^{^2/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^3/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^4/}For 2011, the program assumed toleration of arrears by Paris Club and other bilateral creditors.

For the columns 2011 Est. Sep and 2011 proj, figures show actual accrual of arrears.

Table 2b.

Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2008–16

(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^2/}Revenue minus expenditures excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.

^{^3/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^4/}For 2011, the program assumed toleration of arrears by Paris Club and other bilateral creditors.

For the columns 2011 Est. Sep and 2011 proj, figures show actual accrual of arrears.

Table 2b.

Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2008–16

(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

					2008	2009	2010	2011			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
								Prog.	Sep.	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj. ^1/	Proj. ^1/
Revenue and grants					16.1	16.5	15.7	20.7	15.0	21.1	22.0	22.5	22.9	25.2	26.8
	Revenue				15.6	16.2	15.3	17.2	12.5	17.7	18.8	19.5	19.8	22.9	24.9
		Mining sector			3.6	3.3	3.8	4.2	3.3	4.5	3.7	3.9	3.9	6.7	7.5
		Non-mining sector			12.1	12.9	11.5	13.0	9.2	13.2	15.1	15.6	15.9	16.2	17.3
			Direct taxes		2.4	3.1	2.7	2.8	2.4	2.9	2.9	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.2
			Indirect taxes		8.7	8.6	8.2	9.1	6.0	8.4	11.5	11.9	12.1	12.3	13.3
				Taxes on goods and services	6.0	5.8	5.6	6.6	4.0	5.7	7.6	7.8	7.9	8.1	8.3
				Taxes on international trade	2.7	2.8	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.7	3.9	4.1	4.1	4.1	5.0
			Non-tax revenue		0.9	1.3	0.7	1.1	0.8	2.0	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
	Grants				0.5	0.4	0.4	3.5	2.5	3.4	3.2	3.0	3.1	2.3	2.0
		Project grants			0.5	0.4	0.4	1.2	0.8	1.1	3.1	3.0	3.1	2.3	2.0
		Budget support			0.0	0.0	0.0	2.4	1.7	2.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total expenditures and net lending					17.5	23.7	29.7	23.1	13.8	24.1	28.7	25.9	26.6	28.7	30.3
	Current expenditures				13.4	16.5	20.5	16.3	11.3	16.0	16.8	15.9	15.5	15.1	14.5
		Primary current expenditures			10.8	14.4	18.5	14.6	10.2	14.2	14.9	14.2	14.0	13.6	13.5
			Wages and salaries		4.1	5.0	5.7	6.2	3.9	5.4	5.3	5.3	5.1	5.0	5.0
			Goods and services		4.8	6.1	9.4	4.9	3.9	5.6	5.5	5.4	5.3	5.2	5.1
			Subsidies and transfers		1.9	3.3	3.4	3.5	2.4	3.3	4.1	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.5
		Interest on debt			2.6	2.1	2.0	1.8	1.1	1.8	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.0
			Domestic debt		1.3	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.5
			External debt		1.3	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5
	Capital expenditure				4.0	7.1	9.1	6.7	2.6	8.1	11.9	10.0	11.0	13.6	15.7
		Domestically financed			1.9	5.8	8.1	3.6	1.2	5.0	6.8	4.9	5.9	8.2	9.1
		Capital transfer			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		Externally financed			2.1	1.3	1.0	3.0	1.3	3.0	5.1	5.0	5.1	5.4	6.6
	Net lending & Restructuring expenditure				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Basic fiscal balance ^2/					1.6	−5.5	−12.6	−2.0	0.5	−2.5	−3.8	−0.7	−0.9	0.2	1.7
Overall balance, commitment basis ^3/
	Excluding grants				−1.8	−7.5	−14.4	−5.9	−1.3	−6.4	−9.9	−6.4	−6.7	−5.8	−5.4
	Including grants				−1.3	−7.1	−14.0	−2.4	1.2	−2.9	−6.7	−3.4	−3.7	−3.5	−3.4
Financing					1.3	7.1	14.2	−5.9	−1.2	2.9	−2.1	0.8	1.0	1.8	2.0
	Domestic financing (net)				0.8	7.3	14.0	3.4	−0.3	4.5	5.7	1.6	1.5	1.4	−0.4
		Bank Financing			2.3	6.1	14.9	−11.9	−14.6	−9.2	1.6	2.0	1.9	1.8	0.0
			Central bank, of which		0.2	6.2	10.6	−12.8	−15.0	−10.1	1.6	2.0	1.9	1.8	0.0
				Special Investment Fund							−7.2	2.0	1.9	1.8	0.0
			Commercial banks		2.0	−0.1	4.3	0.9	0.4	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		Nonbank financing			−1.5	1.2	−0.9	15.3	14.3	13.7	4.1	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4
			Privatization revenue		0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Amortization of domestic debt		−1.6	−0.2	−0.5	−0.6	0.0	−0.6	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4
			Change in arrears		−0.1	0.0	−0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Change in float		0.2	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Exceptional revenue ^3/		0.0	0.0	0.0	15.0	13.7	13.5	4.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Other		0.0	1.2	0.1	0.8	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	External financing				0.5	−0.2	0.2	−9.3	−0.9	−1.5	−7.9	−0.8	−0.5	0.4	2.4
		Drawings			1.6	0.9	0.7	1.9	1.5	1.8	2.0	2.0	2.0	3.1	4.6
		Amortization due			−3.1	−2.0	−2.2	−3.5	−2.1	−3.4	−3.1	−2.8	−2.6	−2.7	−2.2
		Debt relief and interim HIPC assistance			1.2	0.0	0.5	0.4	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		Change in arrears (- = reduction) ^4/			0.8	0.9	1.3	−8.1	−1.4	−0.2	−6.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Errors and omissions							−0.3		0.1
Financing gap					0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3		0.0	8.8	2.6	2.7	1.7	1.4
Possible financing								1.2		0.0	8.8	2.6	2.7	1.7	1.4
	Of which: Debt relief and HIPC interim assistance ^5/										8.8	2.6	2.7	1.7	1.4
Residual financing gap								7.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Of which: possible forbearance on external debt							7.1
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP (billions GNF)					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	63,442	80,039
Nominal GDP excl. Simandou production(bln GNF)					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	55,590	61,642

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^2/}Revenue minus expenditures excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.

^{^3/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^4/}For 2011, the program assumed toleration of arrears by Paris Club and other bilateral creditors.

For the columns 2011 Est. Sep and 2011 proj, figures show actual accrual of arrears.

Table 2b.

Guinea: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2008–16

(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

					2008	2009	2010	2011			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
								Prog.	Sep.	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj. ^1/	Proj. ^1/
Revenue and grants					16.1	16.5	15.7	20.7	15.0	21.1	22.0	22.5	22.9	25.2	26.8
	Revenue				15.6	16.2	15.3	17.2	12.5	17.7	18.8	19.5	19.8	22.9	24.9
		Mining sector			3.6	3.3	3.8	4.2	3.3	4.5	3.7	3.9	3.9	6.7	7.5
		Non-mining sector			12.1	12.9	11.5	13.0	9.2	13.2	15.1	15.6	15.9	16.2	17.3
			Direct taxes		2.4	3.1	2.7	2.8	2.4	2.9	2.9	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.2
			Indirect taxes		8.7	8.6	8.2	9.1	6.0	8.4	11.5	11.9	12.1	12.3	13.3
				Taxes on goods and services	6.0	5.8	5.6	6.6	4.0	5.7	7.6	7.8	7.9	8.1	8.3
				Taxes on international trade	2.7	2.8	2.5	2.5	2.0	2.7	3.9	4.1	4.1	4.1	5.0
			Non-tax revenue		0.9	1.3	0.7	1.1	0.8	2.0	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
	Grants				0.5	0.4	0.4	3.5	2.5	3.4	3.2	3.0	3.1	2.3	2.0
		Project grants			0.5	0.4	0.4	1.2	0.8	1.1	3.1	3.0	3.1	2.3	2.0
		Budget support			0.0	0.0	0.0	2.4	1.7	2.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total expenditures and net lending					17.5	23.7	29.7	23.1	13.8	24.1	28.7	25.9	26.6	28.7	30.3
	Current expenditures				13.4	16.5	20.5	16.3	11.3	16.0	16.8	15.9	15.5	15.1	14.5
		Primary current expenditures			10.8	14.4	18.5	14.6	10.2	14.2	14.9	14.2	14.0	13.6	13.5
			Wages and salaries		4.1	5.0	5.7	6.2	3.9	5.4	5.3	5.3	5.1	5.0	5.0
			Goods and services		4.8	6.1	9.4	4.9	3.9	5.6	5.5	5.4	5.3	5.2	5.1
			Subsidies and transfers		1.9	3.3	3.4	3.5	2.4	3.3	4.1	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.5
		Interest on debt			2.6	2.1	2.0	1.8	1.1	1.8	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.0
			Domestic debt		1.3	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.5
			External debt		1.3	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5
	Capital expenditure				4.0	7.1	9.1	6.7	2.6	8.1	11.9	10.0	11.0	13.6	15.7
		Domestically financed			1.9	5.8	8.1	3.6	1.2	5.0	6.8	4.9	5.9	8.2	9.1
		Capital transfer			0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		Externally financed			2.1	1.3	1.0	3.0	1.3	3.0	5.1	5.0	5.1	5.4	6.6
	Net lending & Restructuring expenditure				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Basic fiscal balance ^2/					1.6	−5.5	−12.6	−2.0	0.5	−2.5	−3.8	−0.7	−0.9	0.2	1.7
Overall balance, commitment basis ^3/
	Excluding grants				−1.8	−7.5	−14.4	−5.9	−1.3	−6.4	−9.9	−6.4	−6.7	−5.8	−5.4
	Including grants				−1.3	−7.1	−14.0	−2.4	1.2	−2.9	−6.7	−3.4	−3.7	−3.5	−3.4
Financing					1.3	7.1	14.2	−5.9	−1.2	2.9	−2.1	0.8	1.0	1.8	2.0
	Domestic financing (net)				0.8	7.3	14.0	3.4	−0.3	4.5	5.7	1.6	1.5	1.4	−0.4
		Bank Financing			2.3	6.1	14.9	−11.9	−14.6	−9.2	1.6	2.0	1.9	1.8	0.0
			Central bank, of which		0.2	6.2	10.6	−12.8	−15.0	−10.1	1.6	2.0	1.9	1.8	0.0
				Special Investment Fund							−7.2	2.0	1.9	1.8	0.0
			Commercial banks		2.0	−0.1	4.3	0.9	0.4	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		Nonbank financing			−1.5	1.2	−0.9	15.3	14.3	13.7	4.1	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4
			Privatization revenue		0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Amortization of domestic debt		−1.6	−0.2	−0.5	−0.6	0.0	−0.6	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4	−0.4
			Change in arrears		−0.1	0.0	−0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Change in float		0.2	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Exceptional revenue ^3/		0.0	0.0	0.0	15.0	13.7	13.5	4.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			Other		0.0	1.2	0.1	0.8	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	External financing				0.5	−0.2	0.2	−9.3	−0.9	−1.5	−7.9	−0.8	−0.5	0.4	2.4
		Drawings			1.6	0.9	0.7	1.9	1.5	1.8	2.0	2.0	2.0	3.1	4.6
		Amortization due			−3.1	−2.0	−2.2	−3.5	−2.1	−3.4	−3.1	−2.8	−2.6	−2.7	−2.2
		Debt relief and interim HIPC assistance			1.2	0.0	0.5	0.4	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		Change in arrears (- = reduction) ^4/			0.8	0.9	1.3	−8.1	−1.4	−0.2	−6.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Errors and omissions							−0.3		0.1
Financing gap					0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3		0.0	8.8	2.6	2.7	1.7	1.4
Possible financing								1.2		0.0	8.8	2.6	2.7	1.7	1.4
	Of which: Debt relief and HIPC interim assistance ^5/										8.8	2.6	2.7	1.7	1.4
Residual financing gap								7.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Of which: possible forbearance on external debt							7.1
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP (billions GNF)					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	63,442	80,039
Nominal GDP excl. Simandou production(bln GNF)					20,780	22,133	27,118	33,145	33,973	33,973	39,944	45,184	50,225	55,590	61,642

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}Figures in 2015-16 are in percent of GDP excluding the large iron ore project of Simandou.

^{^2/}Revenue minus expenditures excluding interest on external debt and foreign-financed investment.

^{^3/}The one-off mining revenue in 2011 is included under non-bank financing.

^{^4/}For 2011, the program assumed toleration of arrears by Paris Club and other bilateral creditors.

For the columns 2011 Est. Sep and 2011 proj, figures show actual accrual of arrears.

Table 2c.

Guinea: Statement of Operations of the Central Government ^1/

(Billions of Guinean franc)

Sources: Guinean authorities and Fund staff estimates.

^{^1/}Presentation according to the GFSM 2001.

Table 2c.

Guinea: Statement of Operations of the Central Government ^1/

(Billions of Guinean franc)

					2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
					Real.	Real.	Real.	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
Revenue					3,352	3,662	4,258	7,173	8,798	10,156	11,509	14,028	16,542
		Tax Revenues			3,060	3,304	3,975	5,339	7,233	8,455	9,581	12,302	14,837
			Mining sector		738	725	1,032	1,518	1,489	1,741	1,981	3,741	4,648
			Indirect taxes		1,814	1,902	2,212	2,845	4,576	5,361	6,057	6,811	8,201
				Taxes on goods and services	1,244	1,292	1,526	1,943	3,022	3,502	3,991	4,527	5,146
				Taxes on international trade	570	610	685	902	1,554	1,858	2,067	2,284	3,055
			Direct taxes		508	677	732	976	1,168	1,354	1,542	1,750	1,989
		Grants			103	81	103	1,161	1,272	1,361	1,540	1,286	1,206
		Other revenue			189	278	180	674	293	340	387	439	499
Expenditure					3,625	4,975	8,027	3,351	9,635	11,687	13,325	15,950	18,641
	Expense				2,793	3,675	5,583	5,451	6,712	7,198	7,821	8,396	8,982
		Compensation of employees			860	1,109	1,551	1,824	2,124	2,384	2,559	2,754	3,062
		Use of goods and services			988	1,361	2,546	1,891	2,182	2,423	2,666	2,869	3,130
		Interest			550	461	547	597	735	742	784	822	620
			Domestic		274	326	356	304	352	398	442	489	298
			Foreign		276	135	191	293	383	345	341	333	322
		Subsidies			77	168	294	282	351	378	415	447	497
		Grants			125	272	254	465	783	611	672	723	804
		Social benefits			100	141	167	164	275	318	349	376	418
		Other expense			92	163	223	228	263	341	376	405	450
	Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets				832	1,300	2,444	−2,100	2,922	4,489	5,504	7,554	9,659
		Acquisitions of nonfinancial assets			832	1,558	2,466	2,721	4,742	4,493	5,508	7,559	9,665
			Acquisitions of fixed assets, domestically financed		396	1,273	2,187	1,715	2,704	2,225	2,941	4,557	5,601
			Acquisitions of fixed assets, externally financed		436	285	279	1,006	2,039	2,269	2,567	3,002	4,063
		Disposals of nonfinancial assets			0	−258	−22	−4,820	−1,820	−4	−4	−5	−5
Gross Operating Balance					559	−12	−1,325	1,723	2,086	2,958	3,688	5,632	7,560
Net lending (+)/borrowing (–)					−273	−1,312	−3,769	3,822	−837	−1,531	−1,816	−1,922	−2,099
Net financial assets					−273	−1,312	−3,769	3,822	−837	−1,531	−1,816	−1,922	−2,099
Net acquisition of financial assets					3	8	0	3	11	12	14	15	17
	Domestic				3	8	0	3	11	12	14	15	17
Net incurrence of liabilities					276	1,320	3,770	−3,819	847	1,543	1,829	1,937	2,115
	Domestic ^1/ 2/				168	1,356	3,709	−3,295	471	716	750	771	−262
		Debt securities			−131	0	−157	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Loans			238	1,310	3,913	−3,325	471	716	750	771	−262
			Central bank		50	1,364	2,871	−3,420	650	913	966	1,009	0
			Commercial banks		422	−15	1,166	300	0	0	0	0	0
			Other		−233	−39	−124	−206	−179	−197	−216	−238	−262
				of which: Amortization of domestic debt	−208	−39	−124	−206	−179	−197	−216	−238	−262
		Equity and investment fund shares			69	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Other accounts payable			−8	46	−47	30	0	0	0	0	0
	Foreign				108	−36	60	−524	376	827	1,079	1,166	2,377
		Loans, of which			108	−36	60	−524	376	827	1,079	1,166	2,377
			Project		333	204	177	624	815	907	1,027	1,715	2,858
			Amortization due		−636	−443	−605	−1,166	−1,243	−1,252	−1,288	−1,476	−1,360
			Debt rescheduling		114	3	139	99	3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
			Change amort. arrears (- = reduction)		98	144	262	−81	−2,721	0	0	0	0

Sources: Guinean authorities and Fund staff estimates.

^{^1/}Presentation according to the GFSM 2001.

Table 2c.

Guinea: Statement of Operations of the Central Government ^1/

(Billions of Guinean franc)

					2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
					Real.	Real.	Real.	Est.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
Revenue					3,352	3,662	4,258	7,173	8,798	10,156	11,509	14,028	16,542
		Tax Revenues			3,060	3,304	3,975	5,339	7,233	8,455	9,581	12,302	14,837
			Mining sector		738	725	1,032	1,518	1,489	1,741	1,981	3,741	4,648
			Indirect taxes		1,814	1,902	2,212	2,845	4,576	5,361	6,057	6,811	8,201
				Taxes on goods and services	1,244	1,292	1,526	1,943	3,022	3,502	3,991	4,527	5,146
				Taxes on international trade	570	610	685	902	1,554	1,858	2,067	2,284	3,055
			Direct taxes		508	677	732	976	1,168	1,354	1,542	1,750	1,989
		Grants			103	81	103	1,161	1,272	1,361	1,540	1,286	1,206
		Other revenue			189	278	180	674	293	340	387	439	499
Expenditure					3,625	4,975	8,027	3,351	9,635	11,687	13,325	15,950	18,641
	Expense				2,793	3,675	5,583	5,451	6,712	7,198	7,821	8,396	8,982
		Compensation of employees			860	1,109	1,551	1,824	2,124	2,384	2,559	2,754	3,062
		Use of goods and services			988	1,361	2,546	1,891	2,182	2,423	2,666	2,869	3,130
		Interest			550	461	547	597	735	742	784	822	620
			Domestic		274	326	356	304	352	398	442	489	298
			Foreign		276	135	191	293	383	345	341	333	322
		Subsidies			77	168	294	282	351	378	415	447	497
		Grants			125	272	254	465	783	611	672	723	804
		Social benefits			100	141	167	164	275	318	349	376	418
		Other expense			92	163	223	228	263	341	376	405	450
	Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets				832	1,300	2,444	−2,100	2,922	4,489	5,504	7,554	9,659
		Acquisitions of nonfinancial assets			832	1,558	2,466	2,721	4,742	4,493	5,508	7,559	9,665
			Acquisitions of fixed assets, domestically financed		396	1,273	2,187	1,715	2,704	2,225	2,941	4,557	5,601
			Acquisitions of fixed assets, externally financed		436	285	279	1,006	2,039	2,269	2,567	3,002	4,063
		Disposals of nonfinancial assets			0	−258	−22	−4,820	−1,820	−4	−4	−5	−5
Gross Operating Balance					559	−12	−1,325	1,723	2,086	2,958	3,688	5,632	7,560
Net lending (+)/borrowing (–)					−273	−1,312	−3,769	3,822	−837	−1,531	−1,816	−1,922	−2,099
Net financial assets					−273	−1,312	−3,769	3,822	−837	−1,531	−1,816	−1,922	−2,099
Net acquisition of financial assets					3	8	0	3	11	12	14	15	17
	Domestic				3	8	0	3	11	12	14	15	17
Net incurrence of liabilities					276	1,320	3,770	−3,819	847	1,543	1,829	1,937	2,115
	Domestic ^1/ 2/				168	1,356	3,709	−3,295	471	716	750	771	−262
		Debt securities			−131	0	−157	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Loans			238	1,310	3,913	−3,325	471	716	750	771	−262
			Central bank		50	1,364	2,871	−3,420	650	913	966	1,009	0
			Commercial banks		422	−15	1,166	300	0	0	0	0	0
			Other		−233	−39	−124	−206	−179	−197	−216	−238	−262
				of which: Amortization of domestic debt	−208	−39	−124	−206	−179	−197	−216	−238	−262
		Equity and investment fund shares			69	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		Other accounts payable			−8	46	−47	30	0	0	0	0	0
	Foreign				108	−36	60	−524	376	827	1,079	1,166	2,377
		Loans, of which			108	−36	60	−524	376	827	1,079	1,166	2,377
			Project		333	204	177	624	815	907	1,027	1,715	2,858
			Amortization due		−636	−443	−605	−1,166	−1,243	−1,252	−1,288	−1,476	−1,360
			Debt rescheduling		114	3	139	99	3,524	1,171	1,341	927	880
			Change amort. arrears (- = reduction)		98	144	262	−81	−2,721	0	0	0	0

Sources: Guinean authorities and Fund staff estimates.

^{^1/}Presentation according to the GFSM 2001.

Table 3a.

Guinea: Central Bank and Deposit Money Banks Accounts, 2008–12 ^1/

(Billions of Guinean franc; unless otherwise indicated)

Sources: Guinean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}End of period.

Table 3a.

Guinea: Central Bank and Deposit Money Banks Accounts, 2008–12 ^1/

(Billions of Guinean franc; unless otherwise indicated)

						2008	2009	2010	2011		2012
									Prog.	Est	Proj.
Central Bank
	Net foreign assets					−73	482	241	4,614	4,109	2,890
			(US$ millions)			−14	98	44	604	591	382
		Of which: net international reserves				−226	1,248	1,353	5,985	3,765	3,471
				(US$ millions)		−44	253	222	783	541	458
	Net domestic assets					2,293	3,553	6,741	2,488	3,178	3,854
		Domestic credit				1,928	3,505	6,356	2,104	2,943	3,596
			Claims on central government (net)			2,077	3,450	6,321	2,078	2,902	3,552
				Of which: on the Treasury (PNT1)		2,241	3,618	6,489	2,246	3,069	3,720
			Claims on private sector			9	10	6	6	6	6
			Liabilities to deposit money banks (-)			−208	2	0	−10	−7	−5
			Claims on other public sector			49	42	29	29	43	43
		Other items, net (assets +)				365	48	384	384	235	259
	Reserve Money					2,221	4,035	6,982	7,101	7,287	6,744
		Currency outside banks				1,652	2,120	3,988	3,765	3,113	2,731
		Bank reserves				537	1,885	2,961	3,302	3,939	3,968
			Deposits			434	1,720	2,839	3,180	3,669	3,665
				Required reserves		289	360	603	1,243	1,950	2,194
				Excess reserves		145	1,360	2,236	1,938	1,719	1,471
					Of which: in foreign exchange	102	111	136	158	194	211
			Cash in vaults of deposit banks			103	164	122	122	271	303
		Private sector deposits				32	30	33	34	234	45
Deposit Money Banks
	Net foreign assets					944	609	524	649	483	558
	Bank reserves					537	1,885	2,961	3,302	3,939	3,968
		Deposits at the central bank				434	1,720

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