Republic of Palau: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex

This 2012 Article IV Consultation reports that Palau’s growth is expected to be favorable at 3 percent in FY2012 and to average 2 percent over the medium term. The outlook is clouded by an unsettled global environment, and downside risks dominate. Highly dependent on tourism, imports of food and fuel, and foreign aid, Palau remains vulnerable to external headwinds and has limited policy space to counter these risks. The authorities have made commendable efforts to reduce the current fiscal deficit markedly during FY2010–11, but the deficit remains sizable.

Abstract

This 2012 Article IV Consultation reports that Palau’s growth is expected to be favorable at 3 percent in FY2012 and to average 2 percent over the medium term. The outlook is clouded by an unsettled global environment, and downside risks dominate. Highly dependent on tourism, imports of food and fuel, and foreign aid, Palau remains vulnerable to external headwinds and has limited policy space to counter these risks. The authorities have made commendable efforts to reduce the current fiscal deficit markedly during FY2010–11, but the deficit remains sizable.

ANNEX I. FUND RELATIONS

(As of February 10, 2012)

I. Membership Status: Joined December 16, 1997; Article VIII

II. General Resources Account

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III. SDR Department

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IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None.

V. Financial Arrangements: None.

VI. Projected Obligations to Fund: None.

VII. Exchange Rate Arrangements.

The U.S. dollar is legal tender and the official currency. Palau maintains an exchange system that is free of restrictions on international payments and transfers for current and capital transactions.

VIII. Article IV Consultation:

The first Article IV consultation discussions took place during June 24-July 6, 1999 and the Article IV consultation procedure was completed on November 10, 1999. The last Article IV consultation discussions were held during February 2010. The Executive Board discussed the staff report and concluded the consultation on April 28, 2010. Palau is on a 24-month consultation cycle.

IX. Technical Assistant:

STA, MCM, LEG, and PFTAC have provided technical assistance on statistics, banking supervision, tax policy, and combating of financial crime and financial system abuse.

X. Resident Representative:

Mr. Yongzheng Yang has been the Resident Representative for Pacific Island Countries since September 2010. He is based in Suva, Fiji.

ANNEX II. RELATIONS WITH THE WORLD BANK GROUP

1. The Bank team led by Mr. Suri and the Fund team led by Ms. Sun maintain a close working relationship and have an ongoing dialog on a range of macroeconomic and structural issues.

2. The teams agreed that Palau’s key macroeconomic challenges are to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability and to spur private sector development, in the absence of a higher level of grants. To meet these challenges, Palau needs to achieve significant fiscal adjustments over a prolonged period and facilitate private sector development.

3. Based on this shared assessment, the teams identified five macro-critical areas for structural reform:

  • Fiscal adjustments. This comprises three elements: (i) Revenue reform. Tax revenue stands at 14½ percent of GDP, one of the lowest in the Pacific. Measures to boost revenue include improving tax administration, eliminating import duty exemptions, and moving to cost, insurance and freight (CIF) evaluation for imports. Over the longer term and with adequate preparation, the current inefficient tax system needs to be overhauled, replacing the gross revenue tax with a corporate income tax and moving from the import tax to a consumption tax, such as a value-added tax (VAT). (ii) Expenditure reform. More than half of Palau’s domestic budget is spent on wages and salaries, which is unsustainable as Compact grants wind down. While Palau’s wage bill is the lowest among Compact countries, it exceeds the non-Compact Pacific island average by about 4 percent of GDP. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that the average public sector wage is higher than that of workers with similar skills in the private sector. In the absence of stepped-up grants, the public sector wage bill needs to be rationalized in a phased manner through adjustments in both the civil service size and average pay. However, this will need to be planned and managed carefully as reductions in the public sector could have large adverse knock-on impacts on the economy. Subsidies on certain government functions, such as water and sewage services, also remain a sizeable burden for the government. (iii) Public financial management. Revenue projections sometimes are inflated during deliberation and final approved budgets are not comprehensive. Budget execution is based on appropriations rather than cash availability, resulting in the drawdown of cash reserves and/or accumulation of arrears. With assistance from the AsDB, the authorities have been working towards implementing a medium-term budget framework in FY2013, which will help improve the budget process. There is also a need to base budget execution on cash availability and establish a cash management committee, which could help ensure transparent allocations of cash resources.

  • Public utilities. The Palau Public Utilities Corporation faces financial difficulties and maintenance suffers. Electricity tariffs should be increased towards cost-recovery levels, with mechanisms to protect the poor. With assistance from the AsDB, the authorities are making progress in commercializing water and sewage services. A key challenge here will be to balance commercial viability with the need to ensure access to vulnerable groups.

  • Potential petroleum revenue. A strong legal and fiscal framework to manage potentially volatile oil and gas revenue is essential. Adequate capacity to manage such revenue is also critical to translating petroleum wealth into a broad-based and sustainable increase in living standards.

  • Private sector development. Key obstacles to private sector development include a restrictive FDI regime, foreign labor regulations that distort hiring practices, complex and opaque licensing arrangements, the lack of secured access to land, as well as inadequate access to bank credit. Measures to promote private sector development include continued liberalization of the FDI regime, establishment of a one-stop arrangement for business licensing, timely passage of the secured transaction legislation, and improvement of land and labor regulations.

  • Statistics. The capacity to compile macroeconomic statistics has deteriorated due to the loss of key personnel and severe understaffing. Strong statistical capacity is critical as serious shortcomings in data quality and availability impede policy formulation and surveillance.

4. The teams agreed on close cooperation going forward. The below table lists the teams’ work programs during October 2011-January 2013. The Bank is currently in the process of assessing Palau’s eligibility for World Bank resources. This process will have implications for the Bank’s potential lending program and the relevant outcomes of discussions with the authorities will be shared with the Fund team.

Palau: Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-critical Structural Reform Areas

October 2011-January 2013

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ANNEX III. RELATIONS WITH THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

(PREPARED BASED ON INPUT FROM THE ASDB STAFF AS OF END-JANUARY 2012)

Palau joined the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) on December 29, 2003, as its sixty-third member. While admitted as a regional country, its country classification was to be determined. AsDB prepared a Country Economic Report for Palau and the Development Status and Country Classification of the Republic of Palau which served as the basis for a determination of Palau’s development status. On December 16, 2005, Palau was re-classified as a Pacific developing member country. A more recent report prepared by AsDB in 2007, Republic of Palau: Achieving Sustainable Development, provided a more detailed overview of Palau’s economy.

Palau and the AsDB entered into a new 5 year Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2009-13. The strategy aligns AsDB ‘s program with that of Palau’s Medium Term Development Strategy.

The Outcomes or the CPS are: (i) improve public sector effectiveness to achieve the medium-term fiscal strategy; (ii) facilitate private sector development; (iii) deliver safe water and sanitation services to Palauans; and (iv) manage the threat of Climate Change.

Bilateral and regional technical assistance grants scheduled during the strategy are in the attached tables.

Table A3.1:

Indicative Assistance Pipeline for Lending Products, 2012–2014

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ADB = Asian Development Bank; ADF = Asian Development Fund; ENV = environmental sustainability; GI = general intervention; Gov’t = government; OCR = ordinary capital resources; PAUS = Pacific Urban, Social Development, and Public Management Division; PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates.

Indicative Assistance Pipeline for Nonlending Products and Services, 2012–2014

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ADB = Asian Development Bank; CDTA = capacity development technical assistance; PAUS = Pacific Urban, Social Development, and Public Management Division; TASF = TechnicalAssistance Special Fund.Source: Asian Development Bank estimates.

Indicative Assistance Pipeline for Regional Nonlending Products and Services Accessible by Palau, 2012–2014

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Source: Asian Development Bank estimates.ADB = Asian Development Bank; ADF = Asian Development Fund; CDTA = capacity development technical assistance; DMC = developing member country; GEF = Global Environment Facility, ICT = Information and Communication Technology; MUL = multisector; PAOD = Office the Director General, Pacific Department; PATE = Pacific Transport, Energy, and Natural Resources Division; PAUS = Pacific Urban, Social Development and Public Management Division; PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance; PSM = public sector management; RDTA = research and development technical assistance; TASF = Technical Assistance Special Fund; TBD = to be determined; TCT = transport and information and communication technology.

ANNEX IV. RELATIONS WITH THE PACIFIC FINANCIAL TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE CENTRE (PFTAC)1

Palau has been a heavy user of PFTAC technical assistance in recent years. In phase III (FY2009-11) there were 21 missions, spread across all sectors, with the largest concentration in public financial management (PFM), where the focus was on strengthening cash management and laying the groundwork for the development of medium-term budgeting. Other results achieved in phase III included revenue compliance strategies and strengthened bank supervision through the adoption of regulations, improved bank reporting and the establishment of an on-site supervision program. Methodologies for producing a broader range of national income and balance of payments statistics were also developed.

Strategy 2011-13

PFTAC’s TA strategy is guided by the APD regional strategy note and is planned within the results framework for current PFTAC (Phase IV) FY2011-16 funding cycle.2

PFTAC TA aims to support the authorities sustain progress on fiscal consolidation and strengthen the financial sector. Priorities will be strengthening revenue administration and, in close coordination with AsDB, strengthening PFM. Continued strengthening of financial sector supervision will also be required.

In public financial management, the focus will be on continuing to support the AsDB project on developing medium-term budgeting. PFTAC will also encourage Palau to undertake a PEFA assessment and look to support it in 2013, in line with the objectives of the regional PFM roadmap. Follow up support on accounting and cash management may also be required.

In tax administration and policy, follow up to recent TA on IT development and improved corporate strategy, business planning and compliance will be provided. Ultimately, the aim is to lay the foundation for a modernized tax policy and the introduction of VAT. Assistance in this area is not expected to commence until 2013. If resources are available, additional assistance may be available in the customs administration area, in line with recent informal discussions with the authorities.

In the financial sector supervision area, support in the off-site area will be in developing prudential returns that allow ultimate integration with the automated statistical system currently being developed by PFTAC and RBNZ for implementation in the South Pacific Central Banks. Capacity building in on-site supervision will also continue, likely in late-2012.

In economic statistics, PFTAC will be available to build capacity to produce National Accounts and Balance of Payments statistics under the methodologies developed in phase III and implemented with ongoing PFTAC support. However, with significant levels of Compact-related statistics support expected to begin in 2012, there may not be a demand for substantial PFTAC TA support.

In the macroeconomic analysis and frameworks area, little demand for direct TA is currently anticipated. Officials will though be encouraged to participate in financial programming and macro-fiscal issues planned for 2012.

ANNEX V. STATISTICAL ISSUES

As of January 25, 2012

Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance

General: Palau’s statistics have serious shortcomings that hamper surveillance. Shortcomings include the coverage, timeliness, and quality of economic statistics in all sectors. Since 2009, the Office of Planning and Statistics (OPS) had just one statistician until a second returned from study leave in the summer of 2011. As a result, no macroeconomic statistics had been compiled before a PFTAC statistics mission in November 2011. Staff shortages have also prevented capacity building in recent years. The authorities’ capacity to produce macroeconomic statistics will remain weak, unless understaffing and inadequate capacity building are addressed. In general, the quality of data is weak and the statistics, particularly national accounts estimates, need to be used with caution.

National Accounts: With PFTAC assistance, production-based and expenditure-based GDP estimates through FY2011 were compiled in November 2011. Expenditure-based GDP estimates, however, have large discrepancies with production-based estimates. Estimates for the last three years (FY2009-11) suffer from significant weaknesses in source data availability and quality. These gaps need to be filled before the estimates can be finalized and adopted as official.

Price statistics: From mid-2009 to mid-2011, the quarterly consumer price index was not compiled on a regular basis due to the lack of staff. The series was backdated in mid-2011. The data quality needs to be improved, particularly regarding the precise specification of priced items.

Government finance statistics: Fiscal data are compiled as part of the annual budget process, but budget data provide an incomplete coverage of grants, with only “Compact” current grants included. Upon request, the authorities provide fiscal data using the GFSM 1986 format. Only one staff is able to prepare the data, and data quality and timeliness are a matter of concern. The most recent audited accounts available are for FY2009.

Monetary and financial statistics: Since Q3 2009, banks have submitted quarterly financial statements, including balance sheets and profit and loss statements, to the Financial Institutions Commission (FIC). The submissions enabled the FIC to prepare soundness indicators and publish Annual Banking Sector Reports since 2009.

Balance of payments: Preliminary balance of payments estimates have been compiled through FY2011 with assistance from the PFTAC. However, there are substantial data gaps for FY2009-11 due to poor source data. International merchandise trade statistics have not been compiled for FY2010-11. Improvements to data on tourism’s impact on the economy and a visitors’ survey are needed. More BOP compilers are also needed. Final government accounts and quarterly social security data are missing from the latest estimations. Errors and omissions remain high.

II. Data Standards and Quality

Does not participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). Palau has been invited to participate in a Japanese sponsored technical assistance project to GDDS participation.

No data ROSC available.

III. Reporting to STA (Optional)

No data are currently reported to the Statistics Department for publication in Government Finance Statistics Yearbook, Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook, or International Financial Statistics.

Palau: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

As of January 25, 2012

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency, but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency, but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

1

PFTAC is a regional technical assistance institution operated by the IMF with financial support of the AsDB, Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. The Centre’s aim is to build skills and institutional capacity for effective economic and financial management that can be sustained at the national and regional level. Member countries are Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. It is based in Suva, Fiji.

2

The results framework and additional detail on recent activity can be found within the PFTAC Phase IV program document and FY2011 Annual Report, available at www.pftac.org.