The Gambia
Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation

This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Gambian economy has performed well in recent years, despite a difficult global environment. The external current account deficit has widened in recent years, owing to weak tourism receipts and remittances and high global commodity prices. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for making progress in poverty reduction and achieving strong growth and low inflation despite a difficult global environment. Directors have welcomed the improved fiscal performance and supported the government’s plans for additional fiscal consolidation in the period ahead.

Abstract

This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Gambian economy has performed well in recent years, despite a difficult global environment. The external current account deficit has widened in recent years, owing to weak tourism receipts and remittances and high global commodity prices. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for making progress in poverty reduction and achieving strong growth and low inflation despite a difficult global environment. Directors have welcomed the improved fiscal performance and supported the government’s plans for additional fiscal consolidation in the period ahead.

BACKGROUND: ACHIEVING ROBUST GROWTH IN A DIFFICULT GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

1. The Gambian economy achieved robust growth with low-to-moderate inflation in recent years, despite the global economic crisis (Figure 1). Real GDP growth averaged around 6½ percent a year during 2008–10, driven mainly by agriculture. Tourism and remittances, however, were hit hard by the global crisis. Meanwhile, inflation ranged between 2½ and 7 percent (year-on-year), as the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) generally maintained a restrained monetary stance. At times, this required extensive mopping up of liquidity generated by central bank financing of fiscal deficits.

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Figure 1.

Strong Performance Despite the Global Crisis

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2012, 017; 10.5089/9781463935108.002.A001

Source: The Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

2. The government’s fiscal deficit widened substantially during this period, resulting in a sharp increase in domestic debt (Figure 2). The deterioration of the fiscal balance was caused by a steady decline in government revenues and episodes of large spending overruns. After peaking at nearly 17½ percent of GDP in 2007, revenues fell to just under 15 percent of GDP in 2010, as collections from all major taxes were eroded away. At the same time, expenditures (excluding donor financed projects) rose from about 14½ percent of GDP to 18 percent of GDP. Extra-budgetary expenditures, including realized contingent liabilities, were major factors behind the surge in government spending, particularly in 2009 and 2010. The ensuing large fiscal deficits, were mostly financed with domestic borrowing.1

Figure 2.
Figure 2.

Unsustainable Fiscal Policy

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2012, 017; 10.5089/9781463935108.002.A001

Source: The Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

3. Despite having received extensive debt relief, The Gambia continued to face a heavy debt burden, especially because of rising domestic debt. As of end-2010, domestic debt had risen to almost 30 percent of GDP. Correspondingly, interest on domestic debt has consumed an increasing share of government revenues (18 percent of government revenues in 2011). Moreover, most domestic debt consists of short-term Treasury bills, which poses substantial rollover risks. Despite a large reduction in its external debt under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in December 2007, external debt indicators suggest that The Gambia is still at high risk of debt distress.2

4. The banking sector expanded at a rapid pace in recent years. Between 2007 and 2010, the number of banks doubled (to 14),3 helping to fuel a deepening of financial intermediation. During this period, credit to the private sector and public enterprises relative to GDP grew by about 4½ percentage points, to nearly 17½ percent of GDP.

The new banks are mostly foreign-owned, which generated substantial foreign direct investment, including from the increase in the minimum capital requirement effective at the capacity, while intense competition among a high number of banks in a relatively small market contributed to increased risks to the banking system.

5. Progress on reducing poverty has been mixed. Various social indicators have shown strong improvement (Table 9), notably in education (primary school enrolment and completion and youth literacy rates) and health (immunization and child and maternal mortality rates), but a large share of the population still lives in poverty (58 percent in 2008). 4 The government’s recent initiative to provide greater support to agriculture is expected to have contributed to some progress in reducing the incidence of poverty, by boosting incomes for the rural poor. In addition, the authorities are finalizing a new poverty reduction strategy, the Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment (PAGE), which places further emphasis on agriculture, as well as investment in infrastructure.

Table 1.

The Gambia: Selected Economic Indicators

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Sources: Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Percentage change between December of the previous year and December of the current year (September for 2011).

Average for the month of December (October for 2011).

Defined as gross domestic interest bearing debt.

Table 2.

The Gambia: Statement of Central Government Operations

(In millions of local currency)

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Sources: Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Projection for 2011 includes grants under the World Bank’s West Africa Regional Communications Integration Project (WARCIP).

Beginning in 2011, includes spending on wages and other charges financed by project grants and external borrowing. Prior to that, project grants and external borrowing were assumed to finance capital expenditure only.

Figure for 2010 consists of domestic loans only, and reflects onlending to GAMTEL financed by WARCIP.

In 2010, includes bridge loan from CBG for part of the shortfall in disbursements of budget support.

The difference between financing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

Overall balance, excluding statistical discrepancy, less expenditures financed by project grants and external borrowing.

Basic balance, excluding interest payments.

Defined as gross domestic interest bearing debt.

Table 3.

The Gambia: Statement of Central Government Operations

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Projection for 2011 includes grants under the World Bank’s West Africa Regional Communications Integration Project (WARCIP).

Beginning in 2011, includes spending on wages and other charges financed by project grants and external borrowing. Prior to that, project grants and external borrowing were assumed to finance capital expenditure only.

Figure for 2010 consists of domestic loans only, and reflects onlending to GAMTEL financed by WARCIP.

In 2010, includes bridge loan from CBG for part of the shortfall in disbursements of budget support.

The difference between financing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

Overall balance, excluding statistical discrepancy, less expenditures financed by project grants and external borrowing.

Basic balance, excluding interest payments.

Defined as gross domestic interest bearing debt.

Table 4.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts1

(In millions of local currency; unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

End of period.

Includes public enterprises and the local government.

Including valuation.

Table 5.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts1

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Sources: Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

End of period.

Average for the month of December.

Table 6.

The Gambia: Balance of Payments

(In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Domestic goods consist of (in decreasing order of importance): groundnuts, fruits and vegetables, zircon, fish, and cotton.

Projection for 2011 includes grants under the World Bank’s West Africa Regional Communications Integration Project (WARCIP).

Table 7.

The Gambia: Balance of Payments

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: Gambian authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Domestic goods consist of (in decreasing order of importance): groundnuts, fruits and vegetables, zircon, fish, and cotton.

Projection for 2011 includes grants under the World Bank’s West Africa Regional Communications Integration Project (WARCIP).

Table 8.

The Gambia: Financial Soundness Indicators

(In percent, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Gambian authorities, and Fund staff estimates.

Tier-1 capital is larger than regulatory capital due to the supervisory deduction from premises revaluation.

Table 9.

The Gambia: Progress toward the Millennium Development Goals, 1990-20091

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Source: World Development Indicators.

Figures in italics refer to periods other than those specified.