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Poverty Reduction and Strategy Paper-2010 Progress Report
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This 2010 Progress Report on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) focuses on the poverty condition in Mali. The incidence of poverty in Mali fell from 55.6 percent in 2001 to 43.6 percent in 2010. Over the past decade, poverty has fallen in rural areas, in Bamako, and in other urban areas. However, it increased in Bamako and in other urban areas between 2006 and 2010. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to accelerate economic growth, to make Mali an agricultural power by 2015, and to combat poverty effectively.

Abstract

This 2010 Progress Report on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) focuses on the poverty condition in Mali. The incidence of poverty in Mali fell from 55.6 percent in 2001 to 43.6 percent in 2010. Over the past decade, poverty has fallen in rural areas, in Bamako, and in other urban areas. However, it increased in Bamako and in other urban areas between 2006 and 2010. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to accelerate economic growth, to make Mali an agricultural power by 2015, and to combat poverty effectively.

I. INTRODUCTION

The fourth review of the Strategic Framework for Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Framework (G-PRSP), chaired by Mr. Sambou Wague, junior minister with responsibility for the budget in the Ministry of Economy and Finance, was conducted on June 5, 2011, in the Fanta Damba room of the Bamako International Conference Center (CICB). This fourth review is particularly important. Although institutionally focused on 2010, it assessed four years of G-PRSP implementation and allowed preparation of the next national poverty reduction strategy, called G-PRSP 2012-2017.

It brought together all the players, both from the national level and from the decentralised level:

  • - The members of the Government: Minister for Justice, Minister for Mines, Minister for Handicrafts and Tourism, Minister for Livestock and Fisheries, Minister for Internal Security and Civil Protection,

  • - The representatives of the institutions of the Republic,

  • - The representatives of civil society,

  • - The representatives of the private sector,

  • - The representatives of trade unions,

  • - The representatives of the Governors of the regions,

  • - The Presidents of the Regional Assemblies,

  • - The representatives of national and regional technical services,

  • - The technical and financial partners.

  • The review work was based essentially on examination of the summary report of the 2010 review of the G-PRSP.

II. RESULTS

1. Poverty

The incidence of poverty (measured as the proportion of the population defined as poor) in Mali fell from 55.6 percent in 2001 to 47.4 percent in 2006 and to 43.6 percent in 2010 on the basis of a poverty threshold in real terms of CFA 165,431 in 2010. Thus, there was a 12 percentage point reduction in national poverty between 2001and 2010, and a 3.8 percentage point reduction between 2006 and 2010.

Over the past decade, poverty has fallen in rural areas (from 65 percent to 51 percent or 14 percentage points), in Bamako (from 18 percent to 10 percent or 8 percentage points), and in other urban areas (from 35 percent to 31 percent or 4 percentage points). However, it increased in Bamako and in other urban areas between 2006 and 2010.

Structurally, poverty affects rural areas in particular: 91 percent of poor people live in rural areas.

From 2001 to 2010, inequalities declined: the poorest 10 percent of the population increased their consumption by more than 40 percent while the consumption of the richest households remained stable.

If inequalities had not decreased by 5.9 percent (“redistributive growth” effect), poverty would have fallen by only 6.0 percent (“growth” effect) instead of the 12 percent observed.

2. Economic growth

Table 1

Rate of real growth in GDP at market prices

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Source: INSTAT
  • Since 2007, GDP growth has been below the 7 percent target every year.

  • There are various reasons for these results below expectations:

  • The Malian economy experienced exogenous shocks, in particular the effects of the international crisis.

  • Implementation of the Accelerated Growth Strategy (AGS) was delayed in a number of key sectors such as the development of basic infrastructures and production sectors.

  • In some sectors, the effects of the AGS will only be felt over the medium-term.

However, since 2007 growth in Mali has been consistently at least 1.2 percent higher than in the WAEMU zone, especially in 2010: 5.8 percent compared with 3.9 percent. Moreover, it is encouraging to note that from 2009 to 2010 the increase was higher in Mali than in the entire zone (1.3 percentage points compared with 0.9).

Analysis by sector

Primary sector

In 2010, primary sector grew at a sustained rate: +11.5 percent in 2010 (+5.6 percent in 2009; +13.2 percent in 2008). That increase can be attributed principally to agricultural production (+16 percent), which is in turn driven by rice growing (+26 percent). The increase is especially remarkable given that the areas farmed decreased compared with the 2009/2010 growing year (-5.5 percent).

  • The production of food crops except for rice, of industrial agriculture except for cotton, and of cotton grew markedly (by 12.0 percent, 9.5 percent, and 14.0 percent respectively).

  • Cereals production reached 6,418,091 metric tons in 2010 (+17.4 percent). Rice accounted for 36.0 percent of the increase (33.5 percent in 2009; 33.8 percent in 2008), which is due in large part to the Rice Initiative.

  • Livestock rearing, fisheries, and forestry recorded lower growth rates (4.3 percent, 4.0 percent, and 4.6 percent respectively in 2010).

Secondary sector

The secondary sector again experienced a recession in 2010 (-2.1 percent). Growth in this sector was 3.5 percent in 2009. Although less pronounced than the 2007 and 2008 recessions, the fear is that there is an underlying trend, the reversal of which requires two necessary (but not sufficient) conditions:

  • an improved business climate,

  • a reduction in the cost of the factors of production.

The 2010 recession stems from a fall in mining (14.3 percent) and manufacturing (8.4 percent) production.

In contrast, the construction and public works sector (BTP) experienced a marked increase (+7.0 percent), as did the water and electricity sectors (+10 percent). The increases were partly driven by the major projects started by government.

Tertiary sector:

The tertiary sector grew from +3.5 percent in 2009 to +4.5 percent in 2010. Since 2009, this sector is no longer being led by the transport and telecommunications sector (5.0 percent in 2010; 1.9 percent in 2009; 10.0 percent in 2008; 20.9 percent in 2007).

Analysis of the period 2007-2010

Over the period 2007-2010, Malian economic growth reached 5 percent despite the international crises. This shows the stability of growth and the positive impact of the measures taken by the Government to tackle the crises.

The G-PRSP 2007-2011 envisaged growth led by the tertiary sector (+2.7 percent of the +7 percent target) and to a lesser extent by the primary sector (+2.1 percent of the +7 percent). The opposite occurred: the contribution of the primary sector to growth was slightly higher than that of the tertiary sector (+2.9 percent as against +2.1 percent).

However, the contribution of the tertiary sector turned out to be more stable than that of the primary sector. In the end, the full difference between the rate of growth planned for the period (+7 percent) and the actual rate (+5 percent) is due to the recession in the secondary sector (-0.4 percent over 2007-2010 as against a forecast of +1.6 percent).

Among sectors having contributed most to overall growth from 2007 to 2010

  • In the primary sector, non-rice food crops (1.4 percent) and rice (.9 percent)

  • In the secondary sector, construction and public works (0.3 percent)

  • In the tertiary sector, Trade (1.0 percent) and Transport and Telecommunications (0.7 percent).

Owing to those developments, the share of the primary sector in GDP increased (38.5 percent in 2010; 33.4 percent in 2007) while the share of the secondary sector shrank (16.9 percent in 2010; 20.4 percent in 2007). The share of the tertiary sector fell slightly (37.6 percent in 2010 to 38.6 percent in 2007). In the end, the primary and tertiary sectors have, since 2008, had similar shares of the economy.

Inflation went from 2.2 percent in 2009 to 1.2 percent in 2010, i.e. the same rate as for the entire WAEMU zone thanks to proactive public policies seeking to make basic goods and services accessible to the greatest number, namely in 2010:

  • Water, gas, electricity and other fuels,

  • Household equipment and routine household maintenance,

  • Basic health services,

  • Road transport,

  • Communication services.

3. Improving living conditions

Nutrition: In 2010, the proportion of the population with unsatisfied nutritional needs remains high (22 percent). It has decreased little since 2006 (-2 percentage points). The reduction was more pronounced from 2001 to 2006 (-8 percentage points).

In 2010, the region of Sikasso has the most seriously affected population (57 percent) whereas the problem is of limited extent in Bamako (3 percent).

Education: The Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in the 1st cycle of basic education increased from 82 percent in the 2008/09 school year to 83.4 percent in the 2009/10 school year, the target being 84.6 percent. The GER was 75.0 percent in the 2005/06 school year. The trend slowed down from 2008/09 to 2009/10 (+1.4 percent compared with +2.0 to +2.5 percent between 2005 and 2009).

The gross admission rate (GAR) in 1st year of the 1st cycle of basic education increased from 77.7 percent in the 2008/09 school year to 78.4 percent in the 2009/10 school year. This result falls short of the target set by PISE III (85.3 percent). Nevertheless, the GAR increased sharply between the school years 2005/06 and 2009/10 (14 points).

The Completion Rate (CR) for the 1st cycle increases from 55.7 percent in the 2008/09 school year to 59.1 percent in the 2009/10 school year. This increase almost allows the PISE III target (60.2 percent) to be met. However, the target set by the G-PRSP (63.9 percent) is not met.

The lowest rates are to be found in the regions of Kidal (26 percent), Timbuktu (37 percent), Mopti (41 percent), and Goa (44 percent).

The pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) in the 1st cycle of basic education has been gradually improving since 2005, despite the sharp rise in the number of pupils. However, from 2009 to 2010, it remained stable at 50. The PTR is not as good in public schools as it is in private schools.

The gap between boys and girls is gradually closing. However, it remains wide. Thus, for the GER in the first cycle, the gap went from 20 to 17.3 points from 2006 to 2010. The most marked difference between the schooling of girls and of boys is in Kayes.

Health: The proportion of the population situated less than 5 km from a health facility providing a minimum package of activities (MPA) increased from 51 percent to 59 percent between 2006 and 2010. The proportion varies from 38 percent in the Kidal region to 95 percent in the Bamako District.

Coverage within a radius of 15 km has increased over the years (from 76 percent in 2006 to 90 percent in 2010).

Penta 3 immunization coverage of infants under 12 increased in all regions. Except for Kidal, all regions exceed the 80 percent threshold above which the risks of epidemics are very low.

The rate of access to safe drinking water remained almost static from 2009 (73 percent) to 2010 (73.1 percent) due in part to the low rate of creation and rehabilitation of improved water point equivalents compared to the targets originally set (around 40 percent less).

The rate of access to electricity has been regularly improving for almost a decade. It grew from 9 percent in 2001 to 27.08 percent in 2010. This increase is much more marked in urban areas (28 percent in 2001 as against 55.27 percent in 2010) than in rural areas (2 percent in 2001 as against 14.89 percent in 2010).

The creation of salaried posts steadily increased from 2007 to 2009 (+66 percent from 2007 to 2008 and +33.54 percent from 2008 to 2009). There was a steep fall from 2009 to 2010 (37.97 percent or 23,828 posts created in 2010). In 2010, 12.5 percent of posts were created by the public sector.

The unemployment rate of the overall active population of Mali is 8.3 percent in 2010 compared with 9.6 percent in 2007. Unemployment remains very high in Bamako even if there has been a fall (27.3 percent in 2007 to 24.9 percent in 2010). The other towns experienced the same trend (16.1 percent to 14 percent). In rural areas, there was a degree of stagnation (from 5.9 percent to 4.7 percent).

4. Governance and structural reforms

Combating corruption: the main achievements in 2010 were:

  • ✓ adoption by the Government (July 2010) of the Operational Plan 2010-2014 of the Ten-year justice development program,

  • ✓ adoption (February 2010) of the National Plan of Actions stemming from the Anti-Corruption Forum. A monitoring committee composed of representatives of civil society, the private sector and government was set up to monitor the implementation of the plan,

  • ✓ making available to the courts a number of cases of economic crime resulting from the work of inspectorates,

  • ✓ increase in the number of members of the Chamber of Accounts of the Supreme Court to audit and deliver opinions on public accounts,

  • ✓ operational implementation of the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority,

  • ✓ preparation of a national internal control strategy.

In the area of decentralisation, in 2010 significant progress was made on transferring resources:

  • Transfers to the supervisory structures of local authorities amounted to CFAF 734 million against a forecast of CFAF 660 million.

  • Transfers to local authorities amounted to CFAF 1.51 billion, which corresponds exactly to the forecast.

Nevertheless, local authorities face two dangers:

  • They struggle to mobilise the funds available from the National Agency for Local Authority Investment (ANICT).

  • They struggle to collect own resources.

In relation to financing, the distribution among the three pillars of the G-PRSP is favourable to Pillar 3 “Strengthening the social sector” (36 percent). As regards Pillars 2 “Continuation of structural reforms” and 1 “Development of infrastructures and production sectors”, they received, respectively, 26 percent and 21 percent of total financing.

  • External financing: The aid envisaged by the technical and financial partners (TFPs), members of the OECD, for year n is taken to be around 60 percent in the Budget Law. However, that percentage has been trending downward since 2007 (66 percent in 2007, 60 percent in 2009 and 56 percent in 2010). Nevertheless, in absolute terms, the amounts are constantly rising (660 billion in 2010 compared with 561 billion in 2007).

  • Domestic financing: despite the efforts of the assessment and collection services, the tax-to-GDP ratio remains below the community norm of 17 percent. The ratio was 14.7 percent in 2010 compared with 14.9 percent in 2009, 13.5 percent in 2008, and 14.7 percent in 2007. The implementation of the fiscal transition program should allow the ratio to reach 17 percent in 2014.

In relation to structural reforms, we note the following in 2010:

  • - the adoption of compulsory health assistance (AMO) and the medical assistance scheme (RAMED):

  • - significant progress made in reforming the cotton sector;

  • - adoption of the national gender policy.

In relation to public financial management

  • - adoption of PAGAM/GFP II

III. THE MAIN SUCCESSES

In addition to the high level of growth and the results achieved in reducing poverty and inequalities, other major successes have been achieved:

  • Maintenance of political stability and of the macroeconomic framework

  • Improvement of infrastructures - extension of the road network (85 percent of the program implemented).

  • Implementation of the “Rice Initiative”, extended to other crops (wheat, maize and cotton), which reflects the Government’s desire to make Mali an agricultural power.

  • Better public financial management, due to implementation of PAGAM-GFP.

  • Improved participation of civil society and the private sector.

IV. THE MAIN CHALLENGES

  • ✓ Maintenance of peace and security, particularly in the Sahel-Saharan strip.

  • ✓ Diversification of the economy and acceleration of growth.

  • ✓ Controlling demographic growth.

  • ✓ The environment and climate change.

  • ✓ Youth employment: Each year, approximately 300,000 young people enter the labor market, the majority without qualifications.

  • ✓ Improving the quality of basic social services, particularly education.

  • ✓ Reducing gender inequalities and regional inequalities;

  • ✓ Achieving the MDGs in 2015.

V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The Government reaffirms its commitment to accelerate economic growth, to make Mali an agricultural power by 2015 and to combat poverty effectively. It thanks all the stakeholders involved in implementing the G-PRSP (local authorities, civil society, private sector, social partners and the TFPs) and it is counting on their support to accelerate the attainment of our goals. Finally, the Government recommends:

  • ✓ Strengthening existing arrangements for promoting peace and security,

  • ✓ Combating corruption effectively by strengthening internal control and external control,

  • ✓ Integrating the gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) approach in the process for the preparation of the Budget Law as of 2012,

  • ✓ Accelerating implementation of the national gender policy,

  • ✓ strengthening the capacities of local authorities by transferring resources and powers,

  • ✓ Accelerating implementation of the Framework Law on Agriculture (LOA),

  • ✓ Developing agri-food industries and export sectors that have a direct impact on the incomes of producers,

  • ✓ Improving the quality of basic education,

  • ✓ Developing vocational training in the sectors wit capacity for growth,

  • ✓ Developing quality general secondary education (GSE) and higher education (HE), particular through better control of flows and appropriate reform of curricula and majors/fields,

  • ✓ Complying with environmental protection regulations, making the population more aware of the importance of protecting the environment, and accelerating implementation of the sustainable land management program,

  • ✓ Continuing to improve the business climate,

  • ✓ Continuing to improve internal and external integration,

  • ✓ Reducing regional disparities of all types,

  • ✓ Improving access to basic health care in rural areas,

  • ✓ Developing a results-based culture,

  • ✓ Accelerating implementation of the national population policy and the action and priority investment program on population.

Bamako, September 15, 2011

ANNEXES

Annex 1: Matrix of Results 2010

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Annex 2: State of implementation of the 2009 review of the G-PRSP

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Annex 3: Real GDP growth

Table 20

Real GDP growth 2007-2011

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Source: INSTAT

Annex 4 Sectoral contributions to GDP growth

Table 21

Sectoral contributions to GDP growth

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Source: INSTAT

Annex 5 Principal social indicators

Table 21

Percentage of population living less than 5 km from health care by region from 2007 to 2010

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Source: DNS/LHIS (base GPHC 1998)
Table 22

Number of new consultants per inhabitant per year by region from 2007 to 2010

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Source: DNS/L HIS (base GPHC 1998)
Table 23

Rate of prenatal clinic attendances by region from 2007 to 2010

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Source: DNS/LHIS (base GPHC 1998)
Table 24

Assisted delivery rate by region from 2007 to 2010

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Source: DNS/LHIS (base GPHC 1998)
Table 25

Penta 3 vaccination rate for children under age 12 by region from 2007 to 2010

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Source: DNS/LHIS (base GPHC 1998)
Table 26

Unemployment rate by age group from 2007 to 2010

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Source: ANPE/DOEF (Preliminary results 2010)

Annex 6 Table of financial trends

Table 27

G-PRSP – Trends in financial resources from 2007 to 2010

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Source: DNTCP (provisional data for 2010)
Table 28

G-PRSP - Trend in allocation of resources from 2007 to 2010

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Source: DNTCP (provisional data for 2010)

Annex 7 CROCSAD and CLOCSAD

Table 29

Actual conduct of CROCSAD and CLOCSAD

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Source: DNCT The rate of 43 percent indicated above was calculated without taking account of the number of meeting planned for the region of Koulikoro and the Bamako District, since the figures for meetings held in those communities did not reach the DNCT.

The Regional Steering Committees for the Coordination and Monitoring of Development Operations (CROCSADs) and the Local Steering Committees for the Coordination and Monitoring of Development Operations (CLOCSAD) are the G-PRSP monitoring agencies at the regional and local levels.

Table 30

Trend in (elected and appointed) positions of responsibility by gender

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Source: CNDIFE
1

In Mali, the term “redistributive economic growth” (croissance économique redistributive) covers the concept of “pro-poor growth.” It means to establish economic growth for the benefit of everyone, starting with the poorest. Direct Government support for individuals or families (various allowances, in money or in kind) constitutes only one part of the redistribution mechanisms.

1

In 2007, as in 2010, the total of the shares of the three sectors does not add up to 100 percent because national accounting includes “Indirect taxes minus subsidies” in the calculation of GDP.

1

World Bank - Development of Competencies for Economic Growth and Competitiveness in Mali - 2009.

1

The report “Preliminary Results of the ELIM Survey” indicates that the results obtained are robust to the choice of poverty threshold. In other words, if another threshold had been chosen, the trends would have been similar.

1

In the following, the demographic data used are those of the 1998 GPHC to ensure comparability with the results and goals presented in previous reviews.

1

The parity index is the ratio of the rate for girls to the rate for boys (GER, GIR or CR).

1

In the following, the demographic data used are those of the 1998 GPHC to ensure comparability with the results and goals presented in previous reviews.

1

The forecasts mentioned in this part are not the forecasts of the initial budget laws but those of the 2007-2011 G-PRSP budget framework prepared in 2006.

1

Difference between total receipts excluding grants and total current expenditure including interest on public debt plus capital expenditure financed from internal resources.

1

The slight difference between the totals in this figure for each year and those in the table below is due to the fact that the figure does not take account of financing that goes to cross-cutting issues, for the sake of clarity, since such financing represents less than 1 percent of the overall support of the TFPs.

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