Islamic Republic of Mauritania
Third Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion.

The Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s macroeconomic developments have remained broadly positive, despite high international fuel and food prices and the near-term drought impact. Supported by a rapid growth in manufacturing industries, non-oil output is expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2011 despite the drought-related downturn in agricultural production. A low price pass-through and a prudent monetary policy helped contain inflation. Booming mining exports helped narrow the current account deficit and boost foreign exchange reserves to unprecedented levels.

Abstract

The Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s macroeconomic developments have remained broadly positive, despite high international fuel and food prices and the near-term drought impact. Supported by a rapid growth in manufacturing industries, non-oil output is expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2011 despite the drought-related downturn in agricultural production. A low price pass-through and a prudent monetary policy helped contain inflation. Booming mining exports helped narrow the current account deficit and boost foreign exchange reserves to unprecedented levels.

I. Background

1. The Arab Spring has had only a minimal impact on Mauritania. Political unrest has remained sporadic, and tensions have recently centered around groups of African-Mauritanians opposing the civil census launched earlier in the year. Measures aimed at protecting the poor from high food and energy prices and, more recently, an increase in the minimum wage have helped ease social tensions. A newly signed agreement between opposition leaders and government calls for the creation of an independent electoral commission and more media liberalization, which are expected to be in place ahead of next year’s municipal and legislative elections.

2. Mauritania is facing a serious drought. While a full evaluation is still outstanding, many NGOs and multilateral organizations consider the situation dire (Box 1). Immediate needs linked to free food distribution and the procurement of livestock feeds will have to be met in early 2012. Additional external funds will be needed if the drought impact turns out to be more severe than expected.

Drought in Mauritania

Early warning signs point to a severe drought impact in Mauritania. Approximately 90 percent of the rainfall gauging stations have shown significant deficits and dams are less than 50 percent full. Such a situation is reminiscent of 2002, a harsh drought year in Mauritania. Initial field missions conducted by the authorities and donors indicate a 60–70 percent decline in cultivated areas, which will cause a 50 percent drop in cereal production. The ensuing shrinkage in available pastures will also drastically reduce livestock—the main productive asset for most of the rural population—which is already being sold in some areas at depressed prices.

The considerable economic loss for the rural population will significantly increase food insecurity, particularly among the poor. The World Food Program (WFP)’s preliminary estimates indicate that the number of persons living in food insecurity doubled to at least 700,000 people in September 2011 and could increase to as many as 900,000 people by early 2012 (a quarter of Mauritania’s population). Most of that impact will be felt by the poor as subsistence farming and livestock provide for at least 20 percent of their food intake.

An initial emergency program has been prepared to address the emerging food crisis situation, but full donor mobilization will require an emergency declaration. An emergency response program—estimated at $90 million—is being finalized for incorporation into the 2012 budget. This initial response is aimed at dealing with the most pressing needs, including food distribution in affected areas. This needs to be supplemented by a rapid and coordinated response from donors. The preparation for additional donor financing—including such measures as bringing forward and scaling up existing aid programs—is underway. However, the government is still appraising the full cost of the drought impact, and is not yet in a position to declare a state of emergency, which is necessary to fully mobilize additional external assistance. Delays in declaring an emergency may limit resources available to Mauritania, as it could face donor fatigue from ongoing relief efforts in the Horn of Africa and neighboring countries (Mali, Niger).

3. Significant progress under the ECF-supported arrangement notwithstanding, Mauritania still faces several long-standing challenges. Widespread poverty and unemployment, poor infrastructure, and inadequate supply of medium- and long-term financing hamper efforts to diversify the economy and weigh on private-sector activity. The economy has only limited buffers to cushion external shocks arising from a sharp drop in metals prices or shortfall in donor funding.

II. Recent Economic Developments and Program Implementation

4. Macroeconomic performance was resilient, despite high international food and fuel prices and the near-term drought impact (Tables 18, Figures 15):

Table 1.

Mauritania: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008–12

(Quota: SDR 64.4 million)

(Population: 3.22 million; 2009)

(Per capita GDP: $1,151; 2010)

(Poverty rate: 42 percent; 2008)

(Main exports: Iron ore, gold, fish; 2010)

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Sources: Mauritanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Excluding the oil account.

Defined as government non-oil revenue (excluding grants) minus government expenditure (excluding foreign-financed investment expenditure and interest on external debt).

Table 2.

Mauritania: Balance of Payments, 2008–12

(In millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Mauritanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Total imports in 2012 are lower than programmed in CR/11/189 due to a downward revision of other imports such as garments, cars, and construction materials.

MDRI debt and assumed arrears relief (including passive debt owed to Kuwait and Libya) is treated as a one-time stock operation.

Table 3.

Mauritania: External Financing Requirements, 2009-13

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Source: Mauritanian authorities, and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Arrears to Kuwait are not included.

Table 4a.

Mauritania: Central Government Operations, 2008–12

(In billions of ouguiyas, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Mauritanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Tax arrears from the public electricity company.

Including transfers to public entities outside the central government. For 2012, it also includes payments arrears to hydrocarbon companies and SOMELEC.

These include the development fund (FAID).

Defined as government non-oil revenue (excluding grants) minus government expenditure (excluding foreign-financed investment expenditure and interest on external debt).

Table 4b.

Mauritania: Central Government Operations, 2008–12

(In percent of non-oil GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Mauritanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Tax arrears from the public electricity company.

Including transfers to public entities outside the central government. For 2012, it also includes payments arrears to hydrocarbon companies and SOMELEC.

These include the development fund (FAID).

Defined as government non-oil revenue (excluding grants) minus government expenditure (excluding foreign-financed investment expenditure and interest on external debt).

Table 5.

Mauritania: Monetary Situation, 2008–12

(In billions of ouguiyas at end-of-period exchange rates, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Mauritanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Table 6.

Mauritania: Banking System at a Glance, 2008–11

(Percent, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Mauritanian authorities; and Fund staff.

Liquid assets: cash, reserves, and treasury bills.

Table 7.

Mauritania: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2012–16

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Sources: Fund staff estimates and projections.
Table 8.

Mauritania: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2008–16

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Sources: Mauritanian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Excluding the oil account.

Defined as government non-oil revenue (excluding grants) minus government expenditure (excluding foreign-financed investment expenditure and interest on external debt).