Appendix I: Data
Agha, A, and Haughton, J., 1996, “Designing VAT Systems: Some Efficiency Considerations,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (3), pp. 303–08.
Aizenman, J., and Jinjarak, Y., 2008, “The Collection Efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and International Evidence,” The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 17 (3) pp. 391–410.
Bornhorst, and others, 2011, “When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A. Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances,” Technical Guidance Note, Fiscal Affairs Department (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Congressional Budget Office, 2009, “Measuring the Effects of the Business Cycle on the Federal Budget,” (Washington: Congressional Budget Office).
De Mello, L., 2009, “Avoiding the Value-added Tax: Theory and Cross-country Evidence,” Public Finance Review, 37 (1): pp. 27–46.
Fedelino, A., Ivanova, A., and Horton, M., 2009, “Cyclically-Adjusted Balances and Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers: Some Computational and Interpretational Issues,” IMF Technical Notes and Manuals TNM/09/05.
Girouard, N., and Andre, C., 2005, “Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries,” OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 434.
Pesaran, H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R., 1999, “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94: pp. 621–34.
Prepared by Tigran Poghosyan (FAD).
In case of the VAT, the elasticity is set to unity without conducting any estimations.
Equation (3) can be derived from equation (2) by assuming constant growth rates in Bt* and Tt*. For the estimation purposes, we take y-o-y differences to account for the seasonality effects.