Montenegro: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
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Since its independence in 2006, Montenegro has experienced an economic and financial roller coaster ride. The baseline is predicated on continued improvements in cost competitiveness and productivity-raising foreign direct investment (FDI). Avoiding a relapse into recession will thus require strengthening the health of the banking system and removing impediments to restructuring the economy. Montenegro’s attractiveness to investors will depend on reducing macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. The business environment needs to be further improved. Redressing solvency issues and improving liquidity were jointly seen as priority tasks.

Abstract

Since its independence in 2006, Montenegro has experienced an economic and financial roller coaster ride. The baseline is predicated on continued improvements in cost competitiveness and productivity-raising foreign direct investment (FDI). Avoiding a relapse into recession will thus require strengthening the health of the banking system and removing impediments to restructuring the economy. Montenegro’s attractiveness to investors will depend on reducing macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. The business environment needs to be further improved. Redressing solvency issues and improving liquidity were jointly seen as priority tasks.

Annex I. Fund Relations1

(As of March 31, 2011)

I. Membership Status: Joined: 01/18/07; Article VIII

II. General Resources Account:

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III. SDR Department:

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IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

V. Financial Arrangements: None

VI. Exchange Rate Arrangement: Montenegro does not issue its own currency, has been using the euro as legal tender since 2002, and has accepted the obligations under Article VIII.

Montenegro maintains an exchange system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, except with respect to pre-1992 blocked foreign currency savings accounts and restrictions maintained for security purposes that have not been notified to the Fund.

VII. Article IV Consultation: Montenegro is on a 12-month cycle.

VIII. FSAP Participation and ROSCs: A Financial Sector Assessment Program, initiated in July 2006 jointly with the World Bank, was concluded during the 2007 Article IV consultation.

IX. Technical Assistance:

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X. Resident Representative: None.

Annex II: Statistical Issues

(As of end-March, 2011)

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Montenegro: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of end-March, 2011)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic non-bank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments. General government reporting is incomplete; local government expenditure data are available only after a six-month lag.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Semi-annually (SA), Annually (A), Irregular (I); or Not Available (NA).

Annex III: Relations with the World Bank Group

Montenegro has joined World Bank Group (WBG) as an independent country in January 2007. The Bank had implemented a discrete program of lending and analytical work for Montenegro for most of the period since the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro had joined the WBG in 2001, with three projects still being active at the onset of Montenegro’s first Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for the fiscal years 2007–10. Within this framework, the Board approved two IDA credits (US$19 million)—just prior to graduation—and five IBRD loans (US$54 million) to provide selective support to three key country priorities, viz., (i) enhancing sustainable macroeconomic growth; (ii) building institutions and strengthening the rule of law; and (iii) improving the standard of living for citizens. The committed portfolio has grown from US$34 million in 2007 to US$81 million in 2011. About 70 percent of these commitments remain to be disbursed. Investment operations are focused principally on supporting programs in the sustainable development and human development sectors.

Montenegro: World Bank Project Portfolio, March 31, 2011

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In January 2011, the Board approved the US$ 216-million CPS for FY2011–14. This CPS supports the government’s overarching objective of full integration with the EU within a medium-term horizon. The strategy—reflecting Montenegro’s status as an upper middle income client with well-defined development priorities—aims at (i) strengthening institutions and competitiveness in line with EU accession requirements; and (ii) improving environmental management, including reducing the costs of environmental problems. The government has requested the Bank to focus its support in areas where it had previously been engaged and/or gained applicable regional or global experience. The centerpiece of the Bank’s engagement will be two financial-sector development policy loans (about US$105 million), which will support a program to strengthen the banking sector, bring regulations into line with EU norms, and encourage resumption of (healthy) credit growth. New investment lending is planned for a Higher Education/R&D project, a small investment to facilitate Montenegrin participation in a Regional Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, and an Industrial Waste Management and Clean-Up Project.

Cooperation with the IMF has been strong, particularly the areas of macroeconomic and financial sector policies. Bank and Fund teams have closely coordinated comments on a set of (organic) financial sector laws enacted by Parliament in mid-2010. The WBG, through its ongoing and planned operations, as well its complementary economic and sector work, will continue to provide input on issues such as (i) public expenditure, including pension and health reforms; (ii) business climate and competitiveness; (iii) public sector institutions and fiduciary review, and (iv) agricultural assessment; and (v) statistical capacity building and poverty monitoring. The Fund and Bank have sought each other’s input in internal review processes.

Montenegro: JMAP Bank and Fund Planned Activities in Macro-critical Structural Reform Areas, July 2010–May 2011

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Prepared by World Bank staff; questions may be addressed to Jan-Peter Olters.
1

Updated information relating to members’ positions in the Fund can be found on the IMF web site (http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exfin1.aspx).

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Montenegro: 2011 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
Author:
International Monetary Fund