Russian Federation
Report on Observance of Standards and Codes-Data Module
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The report covers national accounts, prices (consumer and producer prices), government finance, monetary, financial and international accounts (balance-of-payments and international investment position) statistics. Assessment of macroeconomic datasets was conducted using data quality assessment framework (DQAF). With the assistance of the Central Bank of Russian Federation (CBR), users’ survey was conducted. Users are satisfied with the methodological soundness, coverage, timeliness, and accessibility of official statistics, especially monetary and financial and balance of payments statistics. Based on the review, the mission has developed a set of recommendations.

Abstract

The report covers national accounts, prices (consumer and producer prices), government finance, monetary, financial and international accounts (balance-of-payments and international investment position) statistics. Assessment of macroeconomic datasets was conducted using data quality assessment framework (DQAF). With the assistance of the Central Bank of Russian Federation (CBR), users’ survey was conducted. Users are satisfied with the methodological soundness, coverage, timeliness, and accessibility of official statistics, especially monetary and financial and balance of payments statistics. Based on the review, the mission has developed a set of recommendations.

I. Overall Assessment

1. This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module is a reassessment of the exercise conducted in October 2003, using the International Monetary Fund’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF July 2003). The Report covers national accounts, prices (consumer and producer prices), government finance, monetary and financial, and international accounts (balance of payments and international investment position) statistics. The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) compiles the national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), and producer price index (PPI); the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Federal Treasury (Treasury) compile the government finance statistics (GFS); and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) compiles the monetary and financial statistics (MFS) and international accounts.

2. The Russian Federation’s macroeconomic statistics are generally of high quality, reflecting a continuation of positive developments in statistical practices since the last mission in October 2003 that prepared the ROSC—Data Module. Significant improvements are underpinned by the adoption of a Statistics Law in 2007, which embodies internationally recommended principles and practices for official statistics. The agencies compiling macroeconomic statistics have made further progress in adopting international statistical methodologies and best practices. Nevertheless, areas for further improvement and refinement exist. The recent financial crisis and increased prominence of the G-20 (of which Russia is a member) pose challenges to Russia to further upgrade the quality of its macroeconomic statistics for a more extensive and detailed analysis of vulnerability and sustainability. Given the statistical improvements that are underway or planned by the compiling agencies, Russia is well placed to respond to these challenges.

3. Following the ROSC mission in 2003, Russia subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) on January 31, 2005 and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) on the same date. Russia is in observance of the SDDS, meeting the specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and the dissemination of advance release calendars. In many cases, it exceeds the SDDS requirements for periodicity and timeliness. Russia uses a flexibility option on the timeliness of the data on central government operations. Appendix I provides an overview of Russia’s dissemination practices compared to the SDDS.

4. In applying the DQAF, the remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions. The presentation is done at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions and across datasets for the remaining four.

5. Regarding prerequisites of quality, the responsibility for collecting, processing, and disseminating the macroeconomic statistics are clearly specified in the relevant laws governing the operations of the Rosstat, the MOF, the Treasury, and the CBR. Significant and important changes in the legal mandate of the Rosstat have taken place since the 2003 ROSC mission. These changes include the adoption of the Statistics Law, which gives Rosstat a clear mandate to coordinate all statistical activities in the federal statistical system and reduces duplication and promotes efficiency. In addition, a well documented and comprehensive Federal Plan of Statistical Operations is prepared, which details specific data that are produced, by which agency, and the release dates. Laws related to the confidentiality of the data have been strengthened and now avoid conflict with the criminal codes. Moreover, all agencies have robust internal security procedures to protect the data. The human, physical, and computer resources allocated to macroeconomic statistics are adequate, except for the national accounts. The number of Rosstat staff for the compilation of national accounts is inadequate, which limits possibilities to implement development work in national accounts. The CBR’s relevance assessment practices and quality management procedures provide a firm foundation for its statistical work program. The MFS, as well as the international accounts statistics programs and products, undergo quality reviews by the CBR senior management. The Scientific and Methodological Council of the Rosstat provides a forum for consulting on the quality of Rosstat’s existing statistics and to discuss emerging data requirements and the implementation of methodological improvements. The CBR maintains formal processes of consulting with external users of monetary statistics regarding their needs. The budget execution data and GFS are used for the design, monitoring, and assessment of fiscal policy. No systematic arrangements are in place at the MOF to obtain feedback from external users. All statistics compiling agencies demonstrate awareness of the importance of the quality of data.

6. Regarding assurances of integrity, officials and staff of the Rosstat, the MOF, the Treasury, and the CBR uphold high standards of professionalism, transparency, and ethical conduct in producing macroeconomic statistics. However, the Rosstat now is administratively under the Ministry of Economic Development. The legal statutes establish the Rosstat as an independent agency but in practice, its technical independence is weakened by the role of the ministry in the approval and decision-making process. Changes in the methods used to compile price indices and national accounts must first be approved by the ministry. Data compilers in the Rosstat, the MOF, the Treasury, and the CBR are competent and have actively participated in relevant statistics courses abroad and received on-the-job training. The CBR staff participated in international technical expert groups that contributed to the development of international statistical methodologies. Macroeconomic statistics are disseminated without political interference. Advance notice of major changes in statistical methodology, data sources, and statistical techniques is given to users. Clear ethical guidelines exist for staff of the statistics compiling agencies.

Regarding methodological soundness, all macroeconomic statistics generally follow international statistical standards, namely the System of National Accounts, 1993 (1993 SNA), international manuals for the CPI and PPI, Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001), Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual 2000 (MFSM 2000), and Balance of Payments, Manual, fifth edition (BPM5). Methodological deviations exist in all datasets. The output of illegal activities is not in the scope of the Russian national accounts. The PPI does not include sales of production for export while the CPI does not include owner-occupied housing. The CPI has not adopted the internationally recommended Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) to classify all items in the CPI. As regards the budget execution data, a number of areas for improvement have been identified. There are monthly and annual cash-based budget execution reports for the general government and its subsectors, but not for the consolidated central government. Expenditures by economic classification are compiled monthly on a cash basis but only disseminated annually on an accrual basis.1 Debt is classified by currency in accordance with budget legislation, not residency. The budget execution data compiled and disseminated do not follow the presentation of the statements and tables of the GFSM 2001. Monetary statistics have a strong methodological foundation. Classification can be further enhanced by (i) separately identifying contra-entries to data on government’s monetary authorities’ functions; (ii) collecting and including data on financial derivatives at end-period market price/fair value; and (iii) reclassifying the CBR’s valuation adjustment and current year result (profit/loss) accounts in shares and other equity. Valuation of securities held to maturity and shares in the investment portfolio is not on market or fair value basis. The international accounts statistics also have a strong methodological underpinning. An area for improvement is the adoption of accrual principle for recording transactions and positions, specifically for other investment income flows of other sectors (nongovernment, nonfinancial sectors), and the positions of government loan liabilities and nontradable debt of other sectors, which are recorded on due-for-payment basis. The CBR has adopted a phased work program for implementing the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition (BPM6) by end-2012.

7. The accuracy and reliability of macroeconomic statistics received high marks. The Rosstat has a comprehensive system of regular monthly, quarterly, and annual enterprise surveys. Source data for the compilation of GDP and price statistics are adequate. Benchmarking procedures of the quarterly data, volume measures of output and value added for the trade industry, and for taxes and subsidies on products need improvement. In general, source data for the compilation of price statistics are adequate and constantly reviewed for consistency over time and with related products. For GFS, source data for budget execution reports are comprehensive and timely. Statistical techniques could be improved by addressing two concerns: (i) statistical errors are corrected only in the period detected, not in the period they took place, and (ii) consolidation does not follow the GFSM 2001 approach. Source data for monetary statistics are broadly adequate and are subject to validation checks. Automated compilation techniques underpin efficient processing. The data sources for compiling the international accounts are broadly sufficient and are under continuous review. During the 2008 financial crisis, the CBR detected increasing levels and types of financial derivative transactions by banks. Accordingly, measures now are underway to widen statistical collections beyond foreign exchange derivative contracts. The use of statistical techniques to enhance coverage in areas including goods, reinvested earnings, and the direct investment flows and positions of enterprises under production-sharing agreements contribute to the reliability of the international accounts.

8. Serviceability of macroeconomic statistics is sound, with price statistics, MFS, and international accounts receiving excellent assessment in all elements. Periodicity and timeliness of all the datasets, except for the timeliness of data for central government operations, meet and in many cases exceed the requirements of the SDDS. The timeliness of central government operations does not meet the SDDS requirement, but the SDDS flexibility option is taken for this category. Source data used to compile macroeconomic statistics are routinely reviewed and are consistent across datasets. Revision policy in the national accounts needs improvement. Revisions of the quarterly data of the current year should be introduced.

9. Regarding accessibility, all datasets and metadata are available to the public through the websites of the Rosstat, the MOF, the Treasury, and the CBR. Users surveyed during the mission expressed a desire to have statistics available in Excel format and for an improved search engine in the websites given the huge volume of available information. As regards GFS, (i) data on the Treasury and the MOF websites are difficult to access; (ii) limited data are available in English; (iii) limited metadata are posted; and (iv) assistance to users is limited. Regarding price statistics, continuous time series of data at a detailed level for both the CPI and the PPI are not disseminated. CPI weight data have been published on the Rosstat website since 2006. Detailed expenditure data used to develop the CPI weights are also posted on the website. PPI weights are not published, but detailed data on total annual sales, which are used to develop weights for the PPI, are published by economic activity on the Rosstat website. In accordance with international best practices, PPI weight data at a detailed level (both current and historic) should be published on the Rosstat website and included in the PPI bulletins.

10. Section II provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-point rating scale. This is followed by a summary of results of the users’ survey in Section III and staff recommendations in Section IV. Practices compared to the SDDS are summarized in Appendix I. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

11. Assessment of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics—were conducted using the DQAF July 2003. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements and using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ac. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3af.

Table 1.

Russia Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results

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Practice observed: Current practices generally meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. Practice largely observed: Some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: Significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: Most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: Used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.
Table 2a.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Federal State Statistics Service

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Table 2b.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Central Bank of the Russian Federation

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Table 3a.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Consumer Price Index

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Table 3c.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Producer Price Index

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Table 3d.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3e.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3f.

Russia Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

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III. Users’ Survey

12. To complement the assessment of the macroeconomic datasets done using the DQAFs, the mission elicited the views of selected users of the statistics. With the assistance of the CBR, a users’ survey was conducted, which generated 36 responses. Overall, users consider the quality of Russia’s macroeconomic statistics good. A majority of the users are satisfied with the methodological soundness, coverage, timeliness, and accessibility of official statistics, especially monetary and financial and balance of payments statistics. Users expressed a general need for improvement in the information about revisions to official statistics and availability of metadata for all macroeconomic datasets. In addition, the need for improvements in the coverage, level of detail, and timeliness of national accounts and government finance statistics were also identified. Several users noted need for more user-friendly websites. Finally, a large majority of respondents consider Russia’s official statistics to be of the same or better quality than those from other countries in the region.

IV. Staff’s Recommendations

13. Based on the review of Russia’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission has developed a set of recommendations. Priority recommendations are presented below while other recommendations are noted in Volume III of the report. They are designed to increase further Russia’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices, respond to data challenges as a G20 member country, and therefore enhance the analytical usefulness of Russia’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

Institutional

  • Rosstat should be provided the technical independence to implement methodological improvements and changes without the approval of the Ministry of Economic Development.

  • Expand the data and metadata available on the English-language version of the Rosstat website to include all data and metadata available on the Rosstat’s main Russian-language website. Update the English-language version of the Rosstat website on a more regular and frequent basis to include the most current data available.

Cross-cutting

  • Update regularly the metadata on the DSBB, and post data on the National Summary Data Page as soon as data are released.

Support for vulnerability and sustainability analysis

  • Compile and disseminate the comprehensive instrument, currency, and maturity breakdown of the assets and liabilities in the CBR and credit institutions’ (other depository corporations) surveys. 2

National accounts

  • Revisions of quarterly GDP for the current year should be compiled and disseminated every time data for a new quarter is released.

  • Caution users not to make use of the first preliminary annual data to derive estimates for the last quarter of the year, thus avoiding misuse of the data.

  • Compile and disseminate a revised series of imputed rental of owner-occupied dwellings based on the internationally recommended methodology.

  • Improve quarterly benchmarking techniques. The use of the Denton method is recommended.

  • Calculate volume measure estimates of general government consumption expenditure as the sum of the cost component of production compiled in volume measures. Develop specific indices to deflate intermediate consumption and consumption of fixed assets.

  • Update the reference period of the chain-linked volume measures and indices to a more recent period.

Consumer price index

  • Include a rental equivalence component in the CPI market basket to represent the cost of owner-occupied housing.

  • Adopt COICOP to classify all items in the CPI to enhance international comparability of Russia’s CPI.

  • Compile and disseminate a continuous time series of data at a detailed level.

Producer price index.

  • Expand coverage of PPI to include export goods for price collection.

  • Disseminate PPI weight data at a detailed level (both current and historic) on the Rosstat website and in PPI bulletins.

  • Compile and disseminate a continuous time series of data at a detailed level

Government finance statistics

  • Disseminate the monthly cash based economic classification of expense table.

  • Compile and disseminate budget execution data for the consolidated central government.

  • Compile and disseminate monthly GFS summary statements and detail tables (including time series) in accordance with GFSM 2001 guidelines for the general government and its subsectors.

  • Use the residency criterion to classify debt as either domestic or foreign debt.

  • Make the MOF and the Treasury websites more user-friendly. Users should be able to access and download data with ease. Introduce a dedicated fiscal data dissemination page that brings together all budget-related data and documents.

  • Disseminate methodological notes, detailing concepts, sources, and methods used in the compilation of budget execution data and GFS on the MOF and the Treasury websites.

  • Make public a contact person and contact details, for users interested in requesting information on budget execution data.

  • Make available to the public a list of the statistical products and services provided by the MOF and the Treasury.

Monetary statistics

  • Separately identify contra-entries to data on government’s monetary authorities functions (as “of which” lines under the aggregates that include the contra-entries).

  • Collect and include in monetary statistics data on central bank and the other depository corporations’ positions on financial derivatives, at end-referenced period market prices/fair values.

  • Reclassify CBR’s valuation adjustment and current year result accounts in shares and other equity.

  • Value securities held to maturity and shares for investment at market price or market price equivalent.

International Accounts

  • Use account accrual method for recording (i) other investment income flows (interest) of other sectors; and (ii) position data on government loans and the nontradable debt of other sectors.

  • Include in the international accounts, data on all types of financial derivatives.

  • Develop quarterly IIP covering all sectors.

Appendix I. Russia: Practices Compared to the SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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Note: Periodicity and timeliness: (D) daily; (W) weekly or with a lag of no more than one week from the reference data or the closing of the reference week; (M) monthly or with a lag of no more than one month; (Q) quarterly or with a lag of no more than one quarter; (A) annually; and (…) not applicable. Italics indicate encouraged categories.
1

Beginning July 8, 2010 the Treasury began posting on its website monthly information on expenditures by economic classification on a cash basis.

2

In July 2010, the CBR has begun disseminating the currency breakdown in the banking survey.

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