Sierra Leone: Joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis 2010
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publication Date:
20 Dec 2010
eISBN:
9781455212934
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Three-Year arrangement; Three-Year; request; spending; Sierra Leone government; U.S. dollar; debt service; debt relief; sensitivity analysis; Domestic debt; Debt sustainability analysis; Global
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After a period of economic slowdown, the outlook for Sierra Leone appears more favorable. Development priorities and their financing while maintaining a competitive economy and a sustainable debt outlook will help. Structural reforms will focus on improving tax administration, strengthening public financial management, and deepening the financial sector. A key constraint to economic growth in the medium term is the lack of basic infrastructure. Executive Directors support the request to modify the target on net domestic bank credit to the government.

Abstract

After a period of economic slowdown, the outlook for Sierra Leone appears more favorable. Development priorities and their financing while maintaining a competitive economy and a sustainable debt outlook will help. Structural reforms will focus on improving tax administration, strengthening public financial management, and deepening the financial sector. A key constraint to economic growth in the medium term is the lack of basic infrastructure. Executive Directors support the request to modify the target on net domestic bank credit to the government.

Based on the low-income country (LIC) debt sustainability analysis (DSA), staff’s assessment is that Sierra Leone’s risk of debt distress remains moderate. Under baseline projections, all external debt indicators are below their indicative thresholds throughout the projection period (2010-30). Under the most extreme shock scenarios, however, the PV of debt to exports breaches its threshold significantly, the PV of debt to revenue breaches its threshold marginally, and the PV of debt to GDP ratio touches its threshold temporarily. Public sector debt dynamics remain on a stable path under the baseline scenario, but stress tests suggest that threats to debt sustainability remain. The analysis highlights the continued need for improved domestic revenue mobilization, the containment of low priority current expenditures, as well as growth and export-enhancing policies. Sierra Leone should continue to contract new external financing only in the form of grants and highly concessional loans and promote the development of a domestic debt market. The authorities agree with staff’s assessment, highlighting the need for continued borrowing on highly concessional terms to meet the countries’ large infrastructure investment needs, while stressing the importance of not unduly increasing the risk of debt distress.

I. Background

1. This debt sustainability analysis (DSA) updates the DSA presented in December 2009 (IMF Country Report, No. 10/15). It was jointly conducted by the Fund and World Bank staffs in collaboration with the authorities.

2. Sierra Leone reached the completion point under the enhanced HIPC Initiative and qualified for debt relief under the MDRI on December 15, 2006. In January 2007, Paris Club creditors agreed to cancel outstanding claims.1 Debt relief from the international community helped decrease Sierra Leone’s public sector nominal external debt from about 142 percent of GDP at end-2005 to about 32 percent of GDP at end-2007.

3. At end-2009, Sierra Leone’s nominal public and publicly guaranteed external debt, including arrears, was estimated at US$692.6 million.2 About 57 percent of this debt is multilateral, 8 percent bilateral, and 35 percent commercial. The largest multilateral creditors are the World Bank Group (US$124 million), the African Development Bank (US$60 million) the Islamic Development Bank (US$47 million), and the IMF (US$72 million). Debt to commercial creditors consists of arrears accumulated before and during the civil war, which ended in 2002. The Sierra Leone government is making goodwill payments to some commercial creditors to avoid litigation. With World Bank assistance, the authorities are preparing for a debt-buy-back operation of eligible commercial debt by end-2011.

4. Domestic debt amounted to 20 percent of GDP at end-2009. Around 80 percent of outstanding domestic debt is in the form of treasury instruments. Commercial banks and other financial institutions accounted for about one half and the Bank of Sierra Leone one quarter of the holdings.

Comparison with the 2009 DSA

(averages in percent of current GDP unless indicated)

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II. Underlying DSA Assumptions

5. While Sierra Leone was negatively affected by the global economic downturn, the medium-term outlook remains relatively favorable. Economic activity continued to decline in the first half of 2009 due to falling global demand and declining foreign inflows. Despite a pickup in exports of diamonds and agricultural products in the second half of 2009 and an increase in domestic food production, real GDP growth for the year as a whole slowed to 3.2 percent in 2009 compared with 5.5 percent in 2008. The external current account deficit is estimated to have declined to 8.4 percent of GDP in 2009 from 11.5 percent of GDP in 2008, reflecting an increase in official transfers and weak imports. After a long period of stability, the leone depreciated against the US dollar by about 25 percent in 2009, mostly reflecting weaker inflows from exports. The medium-term outlook is, however, favorable for Sierra Leone. Economic growth will benefit from the recent completion of the Bumbuna power station, investment in basic infrastructure, initiatives to improve the business climate and raise agricultural productivity, and continued macroeconomic stability. This should support a recovery of real GDP growth to 4.5 percent in 2011 and to 6 percent in 2012. An expected recovery in export demand for minerals and cash crops should contribute to exchange rate stability. Monetary and exchange rate policies will aim to bring 12-month CPI inflation down to 8 percent at end-2012 from a projected inflation of 16 percent at end-2010. The baseline macroeconomic assumptions underlying this DSA are summarized in Box 1.3

Baseline Macroeconomic Assumptions Underlying the DSA

  • Economic activity is projected to recover gradually with real GDP reaching 6 percent by 2012 and declining thereafter towards a steady state of 5.5 percent by 2018. Medium- to long-term growth is predicated on the government’s ongoing policies to consolidate macroeconomic stabilization, expand basic public infrastructure, and improve the business environment for private sector development.

  • Monetary and exchange rate policies will aim to bring 12-month (end of period CPI) inflation down to 8 percent at end-2012, from a projected inflation of 16 percent at end-2010, and to a steady state of 5.4 percent by 2016. The projection reflects the WEO assumptions on the prices of the main commodities, as well as the authorities’ commitment to refrain from central bank financing and to strengthen central bank capacity in conducting monetary policy.

  • Exports are expected to benefit from a projected increase in commodity prices, expansion in mining capacity, and increased investment in agriculture. Exports of goods and services are projected to gradually increase from about 18 percent of GDP in 2009 to 31 percent by 2030. Imports of goods and services are projected to gradually increase from about 31 percent of GDP in 2009 to 40 percent in 2030.

  • The new GST together with ongoing strengthening and modernization of customs and tax administration is expected to gradually broaden the tax base, raising domestic revenue from 11.8 percent of GDP in 2009 to 14.5 percent by 2012 and gradually to 22.5 percent by 2030. Current expenditures are projected to gradually increase from 15 percent to 19.5 percent of GDP by 2030, while public capital expenditures are expected to gradually increase from 7 percent of GDP in 2009 to 12 percent by 2030 in order to address the substantial infrastructure needs of the country. The overall fiscal deficit, including grants, is projected to slightly increase from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2009 to 3.5 percent by 2030.

  • Total donor assistance, including grants and concessional loans, is expected to decline from the current level of 10 percent of GDP to 8 percent of GDP in the medium term. Budget support is projected to decline gradually from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2009 to 0.6 percent by 2030.

  • It is assumed that about US$240 million of unreconciled commercial debt would be eligible for the World Bank assisted debt buy-back operation in 2011.

  • Domestic debt is expected to decline gradually from 19 percent of GDP in 2009 to 16 percent in 2030, as the government refrains from central bank borrowing and limits issuance of new securities. In the outer years, domestic debt in percent of GDP is projected to be significantly higher than envisaged under the 2009 DSA because of higher annual fiscal deficits reflecting investment in infrastructure and social services. Domestic debt includes treasury bills, treasury bearer bonds, non-interest bearing bonds, recapitalization bond, ways and means advances, and domestic arrears.

III. External Debt Sustainability

A. Baseline

6. Under the baseline scenario, the debt indicators are projected to remain below the corresponding thresholds throughout the projection period. The PV of debt-to-GDP ratio would remain in the range of 19-22 percent throughout.4 The PV of external debt to exports is projected to decline from 108 percent in 2009 to 95 percent in 2015, 79 percent by 2020, and 63 percent in 2030. The PV of debt-to-revenue ratio declines from a peak of 159 in 2009 to 87 by 2030, below its 200 percent threshold. The ratios of debt-service-to exports and debt-service-to-revenue remains well below their thresholds throughout the projection period (Table 1).5

Table 1.:

External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2007-2030 1/

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

Includes both public and private sector external debt.

Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.

Includes project grants (3 and 4 percent of GDP annually), exceptional financing (changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exch. rate changes. The large residual in 2007 includes HIPC relief and in 2011 the pending debt buyback.

Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.

Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.

Historical averages and standard deviations are derived over the past 5 years due to large fluctuations in the post-conflict economic data.

Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.

Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).

B. Alternative Scenarios and Stress Tests

7. The alternative scenarios highlight the need for maintaining prudent external debt management and refraining from non-concessional borrowing. Under an alternative scenario that assumes less favorable borrowing terms, the PV of debt-to-exports ratio breached the indicative thresholds (A2, Table 2a). It would therefore be important to pursue a prudent external debt management policy, relying mostly on grants and highly concessional loans. The government has expressed interest in technical assistance from the Bank and the Fund on developing a Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS).

Table 2a.

Sierra Leone: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2010-2030

(In percent)

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Table 2b.

Sierra Leone: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2010-2030 (continued)

(In percent)

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Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.

Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.

Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).

Includes official and private transfers and FDI.

Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.

Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.

8. Under the standard stress tests, public debt ratios are sensitive to an export shock and a one-time real depreciation of 30 percent in 2011. These highlight the vulnerability of the economy to adverse external developments. Notably the analysis shows that the debt-to-exports ratio is particularly sensitive to export shocks. Under the most extreme bound test of a one standard deviation export shock (B2), the PV of debt-to-exports-ratio would reach 159 percent of exports in 2012, gradually declining to 89 percent in 2030.6 A combination shock (B5), which reduces growth in exports, real GDP, net FDI inflows, and the GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms by half a standard deviation, would also breach the threshold, but to a lesser degree. The most extreme stress test for the debt-to-GDP and debt-to-revenue indicators represents a one-time 30 percent real exchange rate depreciation relative to the baseline in 2011. This results in a temporary breach of the indicative threshold of the debt to revenue indicator, while the threshold is touched but not breached in the case of the debt-to-GDP ratio. Finally, none of the stress tests for the liquidity indicators breach their corresponding thresholds. Overall, however, the tests underscore the importance of strengthening the environment for economic growth and export oriented policies, including continuing infrastructure investment and financial deepening.

IV. Fiscal Debt Sustainability

A. Baseline

9. Under the baseline, Sierra Leone’s total public debt burden (including domestic debt) is expected to stabilize over the projection period.7 The baseline macroeconomic scenario assumes a marginal and gradual reduction in domestic financing relative to GDP. With moderate domestic financing, domestic debt is expected to decline from 19 percent of GDP in 2009 to 16 percent by 2030. This trend helps offset the increase in external debt, so that the public debt-to-GDP ratio would decline from 60 percent of GDP in 2009 to 44 percent by 2030. While a lower relative accumulation of domestic debt is a positive development, there is a need to develop a more competitive domestic debt market that could result in lower nominal and real interest rates and longer maturities (Table 3).

Table 3.

Sierra Leone: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2007-2030

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

Public sector refers to central government and nonfinancial public sector.

Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.

Revenues excluding grants.

Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.

Historical averages and standard deviations are derived over the past 5 years due to large fluctuations in the post-conflict economic data.

B. Alternative Scenarios and Stress Tests

10. In order to avoid unfavorable developments in public debt dynamics, the primary fiscal deficit needs to be contained going forward. Under an alternative scenario assuming an unchanged primary balance from 2010, the PV of debt-to-GDP ratio would moderately increase after 2020, compared to the baseline during the projection period. This underscores the importance of improving domestic revenue mobilization and containing non-priority current expenditures (Table 4). Under bound tests, a one standard deviation growth shock in 2011-12, and a one-time 30 percent depreciation, would moderately increase the corresponding PV of debt ratios.

Table 4.

Sierra Leone: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2010-2030

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Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.

Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.

Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.

V. Debt Distress Classification and Conclusions

11. Based on the LIC-DSA framework, Sierra Leone remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. Under the baseline scenario, debt indicators are below the indicative, country-specific policy dependent thresholds. Stress tests reveal that Sierra Leone’s external debt trajectory is still vulnerable to shocks affecting its external sector. The evolution of external debt critically hinges on policies aimed at boosting growth and diversifying the export base, while continuing to access grants and highly concessional loans.

12. Although domestic debt is projected to decline significantly over time relative to GDP, it does not affect the overall assessment. A slowdown in domestic debt accumulation does, however, lessen liquidity and rollover risks associated with its short maturities. Stress tests underline the importance of improving domestic revenue mobilization and containing non-priority expenditures. Policies should aim at developing the domestic debt market.

Figure 1.
Figure 1.

Sierra Leone: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternatives Scenarios, 2010-2030 1/

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 370; 10.5089/9781455212934.002.A002

Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2020. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Exports shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shock
Figure 2.
Figure 2.

Sierra Leone: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2010-2030 1/

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 370; 10.5089/9781455212934.002.A002

Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2020.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
1

Sierra Leone has received debt relief under HIPC and MDRI Initiatives from the IMF, IDA, AfDB, EIB, IFAD, BADEA, IDB, and OPEC Fund. Bilateral agreements have been signed with all Paris Club creditors. Agreements on the delivery of the HIPC relief are still pending with China, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

2

Public sector refers to central government and the nonfinancial public sector. This includes USD$240 million of unreconciled commercial debt for which a debt-buy-back operation is pending.

3

The impact of two new iron ore projects is not reflected in the baseline because of limited information.

4

Sierra Leone remains rated as a weak performer with regard to its policies and institutions with an average 2007–09 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating of 3.14. As a poor performer, the debt and debt service thresholds under the joint IMF-WB DSA framework for LICs applied to Sierra Leone are:

(i) 100 percent for Present Value (PV) of debt-to-exports; (ii) 30 percent for PV of debt-to-GDP; and

(iii) 200 percent for PV of debt-to-revenue. The relevant debt service thresholds are (i) 15 percent of exports; and (ii) 25 percent of revenues.

5

While the nominal value of public debt includes USD$240 million of unreconciled commercial debt for which a debt-buy-back operation is pending in 2011, the present value calculation includes 10 percent of this nominal debt stock, reflecting the expected payments in the debt-buy-back. It should be noted, however, that all the external debt thresholds would be breached temporarily in 2010 in the case of treating the full amount at face value in the present value calculation prior to the debt buy-back in 2011.

6

Due to large fluctuations in the economic data following the end of the civil war in 2002, stress tests and alternative scenarios have been calibrated to use a 5-year historical period.

7

Public debt reflects current and committed government obligations.

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: 2010 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sierra Leone
Author: International Monetary Fund
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2010: Issue 370
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
9781455212934
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
87
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455212934.002