The Gambia: 2010 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report, Statement by the IMF Staff Representative, Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion, and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia

2010 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report, Statement by the IMF Staff Representative, Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion, and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publication Date:: 03 Sep 2010

eISBN:: 9781455202539

Language:: English

Keywords:: ISCR; CR; transportation price; policy objective; July; bridge loan; private sector; broad money; T-bill yield; monetary policy; Budget planning and preparation; Government asset and liability management; Global

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The Gambian economy showed strong growth and low inflation during the global crisis under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), despite a sharp drop in tourism and remittance receipts. Executive Directors appreciated the macroeconomic policy framework and stressed the importance of achieving the MDGs and targets on poverty-reducing expenditures. They encouraged strengthening of fiscal performance to anchor macroeconomic stability and reduce the debt burden. Directors strongly supported tax reform and welcomed budget procedures and their execution. Directors supported recent improvements in debt management and stressed the importance of debt sustainability.

Abstract

I. Background: Achieving Macroeconomic Stability, While Dealing with a Heavy Debt Burden

1. Following a period of instability during the early 2000’s, the Gambian economy improved with the implementation of sound macroeconomic policies and important structural reforms.¹ Key sectors driving growth included construction, tourism, financial services, and telecommunications, as well as domestically oriented wholesale and retail trade, which all helped to overcome The Gambia’s diminishing role as a regional entrepôt. In more recent years, 2007-09, real GDP growth picked up to 6.0 percent a year on average, which outpaced growth in many countries in the region.² Even during the global economic crisis, real GDP growth remained high (5.6 percent in 2009), as a continuing rebound in agriculture largely outweighed the impact of a sharp drop in tourism and remittances from Gambians working abroad—the latter being a leading source of financing for home building. Inflation has been kept at single-digit rates since 2004, averaging only 4.8 percent during 2007-09. Reflecting monetary restraint by the Central Bank of The Gambia (CBG) and steadier food prices, inflation fell to 2.8 percent in 2009. Also, regulated prices on electricity and fuel remained fixed during the year (Tables 1-7 and Figures 1-3).

Table 1.

The Gambia: Selected Economic Indicators

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹Data for 2009 are the actuals as of March 2010, but still subject to revisions.

^²As per new GDP data, where relevant.

Table 1.

The Gambia: Selected Economic Indicators

			2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
			Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	6th Rev.²	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
National account and prices			(Percent change; unless otherwise indicated)
	Nominal GDP (millions of dalasi)		20,556	22,978	25,805	21,477	28,425	28,425	31,434	34,724	38,356	42,374	46818.9
	Nominal GDP		10.0	11.8	12.3	10.0	…	10.2	10.6	10.5	10.5	10.5	10.5
	GDP at constant prices		6.0	6.3	5.6	4.8	…	5.0	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
	GDP deflator		3.8	5.2	6.4	4.9	…	4.9	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8
	Consumer prices (average)		5.4	4.5	4.6	3.7	…	3.9	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
	Consumer prices (end of period)		6.0	6.8	2.7	5.0	…	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
External sector
	Exports, f.o.b.		8.8	-4.4	8.5	3.6	…	4.9	4.8	4.9	4.5	4.5	3.0
		Of which: domestic exports	-27.9	-0.2	-13.3	11.3	…	12.1	5.9	5.8	0.9	6.7	6.8
	Imports, f.o.b.		18.4	17.4	-3.7	6.5	…	6.4	6.4	6.2	6.5	6.3	7.9
	Terms of trade (deterioration -)		-6.1	-16.2	-0.8	1.7	…	1.7	1.2	1.1	1.0	2.0	2.0
	Nominal exchange rate change (depreciation -)¹		7.6	8.1	-13.3	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
	Real effective exchange rate (depreciation -)¹		9.6	7.5	-10.2	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
Money and credit			(Percent change; in beginning-of-year broad money)
	Broad money		6.7	18.4	19.4	10.9	…	12.5	12.1	12.0	12.1	12.1	12.1
	Net foreign assets		-3.5	-6.3	3.7	-0.1	…	-0.1	0.1	1.4	2.9	3.9	3.5
	Net domestic assets		10.1	24.7	15.7	11.1	…	12.7	12.0	10.6	9.1	8.2	8.7
		Credit to the government (net)	-4.1	17.8	3.8	-0.1	…	4.6	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.4
		Credit to the private sector (net)	4.8	6.8	3.5	8.2	…	5.1	7.8	8.3	7.4	6.6	7.1
		Other items (net)	9.9	-2.4	4.9	2.5	…	-1.0	0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
	Velocity		2.9	2.7	2.5	2.0	…	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.3
	Average treasury bill rate (in percent)¹		11.9	11.8	12.0	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
Central government budget					(In percent of GDP)
	Domestic revenues		16.9	15.2	15.1	20.5	15.5	14.3	14.6	14.7	14.8	15.0	15.0
	Grants		0.9	1.1	3.5	4.9	3.7	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.1
	Total expenditure and net lending		17.7	18.0	22.0	26.9	20.3	19.5	19.4	19.1	19.0	18.8	18.9
	Overall balance		0.4	-1.8	-2.0	-1.4	-1.0	-2.8	-2.4	-2.2	-2.0	-1.8	-1.8
	Basic balance		3.0	-0.6	-1.8	-0.1	-0.1	-0.9	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.4
	Net foreign financing		0.8	0.1	0.5	1.7	1.3	1.0	1.7	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.0
	Net domestic financing		-1.1	1.6	1.5	-0.3	-0.2	1.9	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.7
	Stock of domestic public debt		22.1	19.9	19.7	22.7	17.1	20.7	20.1	19.7	17.9	16.6	15.8
External sector
	Current account balance
		Excluding official transfers	-10.7	-13.7	-14.0	-19.3	-14.5	-13.6	-13.2	-12.5	-12.3	-11.9	-12.2
		Including official transfers	-9.7	-12.7	-10.5	-14.3	-10.8	-11.1	-10.8	-10.3	-10.2	-9.8	-9.1
	Current account balance		(Millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
		Excluding official transfers	-88.1	-142.0	-135.4	-155.1	…	-141.1	-146.6	-148.3	-155.9	-161.8	-182.2
		Including official transfers	-80.3	-131.0	-101.6	-115.3	…	-115.9	-120.0	-122.3	-128.9	-133.1	-135.9
	Overall balance of payments		34.0	-32.3	54.6	-6.8	…	-15.2	-3.7	0.3	8.9	15.3	20.3
	Gross official reserves		141.6	115.6	186.0	178.2	…	177.6	177.6	177.6	185.0	197.1	212.8
		in months of imports, c.i.f.	5.5	3.8	6.4	6.0	…	5.8	5.4	5.1	5.0	5.0	5.0
	External public debt
		Stock	299.4	328.0	330.1	343.5	343.5	343.5	362.3	380.2	397.0	412.9	428.6
		Stock (percent of GDP)	36.2	31.7	34.1	42.6	32.2	33.0	32.6	32.0	31.3	30.4	28.7
	Use of Fund resources				(Millions of SDRs)
	Purchases		4.0	4.0	10.2	4.4	…	4.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Repurchases		-11.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	…	0.0	0.0	-0.2	-1.0	-2.1	-3.8

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹Data for 2009 are the actuals as of March 2010, but still subject to revisions.

^²As per new GDP data, where relevant.

Table 1.

The Gambia: Selected Economic Indicators

			2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
			Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	6th Rev.²	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
National account and prices			(Percent change; unless otherwise indicated)
	Nominal GDP (millions of dalasi)		20,556	22,978	25,805	21,477	28,425	28,425	31,434	34,724	38,356	42,374	46818.9
	Nominal GDP		10.0	11.8	12.3	10.0	…	10.2	10.6	10.5	10.5	10.5	10.5
	GDP at constant prices		6.0	6.3	5.6	4.8	…	5.0	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
	GDP deflator		3.8	5.2	6.4	4.9	…	4.9	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8
	Consumer prices (average)		5.4	4.5	4.6	3.7	…	3.9	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
	Consumer prices (end of period)		6.0	6.8	2.7	5.0	…	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
External sector
	Exports, f.o.b.		8.8	-4.4	8.5	3.6	…	4.9	4.8	4.9	4.5	4.5	3.0
		Of which: domestic exports	-27.9	-0.2	-13.3	11.3	…	12.1	5.9	5.8	0.9	6.7	6.8
	Imports, f.o.b.		18.4	17.4	-3.7	6.5	…	6.4	6.4	6.2	6.5	6.3	7.9
	Terms of trade (deterioration -)		-6.1	-16.2	-0.8	1.7	…	1.7	1.2	1.1	1.0	2.0	2.0
	Nominal exchange rate change (depreciation -)¹		7.6	8.1	-13.3	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
	Real effective exchange rate (depreciation -)¹		9.6	7.5	-10.2	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
Money and credit			(Percent change; in beginning-of-year broad money)
	Broad money		6.7	18.4	19.4	10.9	…	12.5	12.1	12.0	12.1	12.1	12.1
	Net foreign assets		-3.5	-6.3	3.7	-0.1	…	-0.1	0.1	1.4	2.9	3.9	3.5
	Net domestic assets		10.1	24.7	15.7	11.1	…	12.7	12.0	10.6	9.1	8.2	8.7
		Credit to the government (net)	-4.1	17.8	3.8	-0.1	…	4.6	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.4
		Credit to the private sector (net)	4.8	6.8	3.5	8.2	…	5.1	7.8	8.3	7.4	6.6	7.1
		Other items (net)	9.9	-2.4	4.9	2.5	…	-1.0	0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
	Velocity		2.9	2.7	2.5	2.0	…	2.5	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.3
	Average treasury bill rate (in percent)¹		11.9	11.8	12.0	…	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
Central government budget					(In percent of GDP)
	Domestic revenues		16.9	15.2	15.1	20.5	15.5	14.3	14.6	14.7	14.8	15.0	15.0
	Grants		0.9	1.1	3.5	4.9	3.7	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.1
	Total expenditure and net lending		17.7	18.0	22.0	26.9	20.3	19.5	19.4	19.1	19.0	18.8	18.9
	Overall balance		0.4	-1.8	-2.0	-1.4	-1.0	-2.8	-2.4	-2.2	-2.0	-1.8	-1.8
	Basic balance		3.0	-0.6	-1.8	-0.1	-0.1	-0.9	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.4
	Net foreign financing		0.8	0.1	0.5	1.7	1.3	1.0	1.7	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.0
	Net domestic financing		-1.1	1.6	1.5	-0.3	-0.2	1.9	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.7
	Stock of domestic public debt		22.1	19.9	19.7	22.7	17.1	20.7	20.1	19.7	17.9	16.6	15.8
External sector
	Current account balance
		Excluding official transfers	-10.7	-13.7	-14.0	-19.3	-14.5	-13.6	-13.2	-12.5	-12.3	-11.9	-12.2
		Including official transfers	-9.7	-12.7	-10.5	-14.3	-10.8	-11.1	-10.8	-10.3	-10.2	-9.8	-9.1
	Current account balance		(Millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
		Excluding official transfers	-88.1	-142.0	-135.4	-155.1	…	-141.1	-146.6	-148.3	-155.9	-161.8	-182.2
		Including official transfers	-80.3	-131.0	-101.6	-115.3	…	-115.9	-120.0	-122.3	-128.9	-133.1	-135.9
	Overall balance of payments		34.0	-32.3	54.6	-6.8	…	-15.2	-3.7	0.3	8.9	15.3	20.3
	Gross official reserves		141.6	115.6	186.0	178.2	…	177.6	177.6	177.6	185.0	197.1	212.8
		in months of imports, c.i.f.	5.5	3.8	6.4	6.0	…	5.8	5.4	5.1	5.0	5.0	5.0
	External public debt
		Stock	299.4	328.0	330.1	343.5	343.5	343.5	362.3	380.2	397.0	412.9	428.6
		Stock (percent of GDP)	36.2	31.7	34.1	42.6	32.2	33.0	32.6	32.0	31.3	30.4	28.7
	Use of Fund resources				(Millions of SDRs)
	Purchases		4.0	4.0	10.2	4.4	…	4.5	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Repurchases		-11.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	…	0.0	0.0	-0.2	-1.0	-2.1	-3.8

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹Data for 2009 are the actuals as of March 2010, but still subject to revisions.

^²As per new GDP data, where relevant.

Table 2.

The Gambia: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government

(In millions of local currency)

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹The difference between financing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

^²In 2010, includes bridge loan fom CBG for part of the shortfall in disbursements of budget support.

^³Domestic revenue - expenditure and net lending, excluding externally financed capital spending.

^⁴Domestic revenue - expenditure and net lending, excluding interest payments and externally financed capital spending.

^⁵Change in arrears for 2008 includes an additional D25 million for repayments to the National Water and Electricity Company (HAWEC).

Table 2.

The Gambia: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government

(In millions of local currency)

				2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
				Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.

Total revenue and grants				3,663	3,745	4,790	5,474	4,756	5,342	5,857	6,501	7,242	7,998
	Revenue			3,468	3,500	3,891	4,413	4,066	4,591	5,097	5,687	6,347	7,013
		Tax revenue		3,037	3,146	3,519	3,991	3,620	4,117	4,569	5,096	5,684	6,459
			Taxes on income, profits, and capital gains	884	1,125	974	1,185	1,102	1,230	1,373	1,547	1,743	2,005
			Domestic taxes on goods and services	1,345	1,313	1,395	1,572	1,546	1,750	1,942	2,163	2,410	2,736
			Taxes on international trade and transaction	808	708	1,148	1,234	973	1,136	1,255	1,386	1,531	1,718
		Non-tax		421	354	371	422	446	474	528	591	663	554
	Grants			194	244	899	1,061	690	751	760	814	895	985
		Budget support		20	79	189	425	79	79	20	0	0	0
		Project grants		174	I66	710	636	612	673	740	814	895	985
Expenditures and net lending				3,635	4,139	5,683	5,770	5,555	6,184	6,697	7,308	7,979	8,762
	Current expenditures			2,586	3,186	3,622	4,014	3,877	4,049	4,358	4,739	5,147	5,623
		Wages and salaries		680	983	1,192	1,499	1,461	1,662	1,836	2,028	2,240	2,475
		Other charges		1,091	1,489	1,689	1,752	1,595	1,560	1,668	1,827	1,995	2,204
		Interest		815	713	741	762	821	828	854	885	912	944
			External	231	154	153	176	183	194	212	230	247	259
			Domestic	584	560	588	586	638	633	642	655	665	685
	Capital expenditure			973	857	1,924	1,692	1,679	2,085	2,289	2,518	2,782	3,089
		Foreign financed		780	505	1,338	1,327	1,227	1,576	1,675	1,780	1,892	2,017
		Gambia local fund (GLF)		192	352	586	365	452	509	613	739	890	1,072
	Net lending			76	96	138	64	0	50	50	50	50	50
Overall balance (excl. statistical discrepancy)				28	-394	-894	-296	-799	-842	-840	-807	-737	-764
Statistical discrepancy ¹				48	-11	385	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Overall balance				76	-405	-509	-296	-799	-842	-840	-807	-737	-764
Financing				-76	405	509	296	799	842	840	807	737	764
	External fnancing (net)			158	30	129	356	271	531	523	510	494	491
		Borrowing		586	340	628	691	615	904	935	966	996	1,032
		Amortization		-428	-310	-499	-335	-344	-372	-412	-445	-503	-541
	Domestic financing (net)			-234	375	379	-60	528	310	317	297	243	273
		Net borrowing		-514	585	370	-90	561	310	317	297	243	273
			Bank ²	-68	1,044	376	-7	536	230	130	80	80	182
			Nonbank	-267	-369	42	-7	102	115	187	217	163	91
			Repayment of domestic debt	-179	-89	-49	-77	-77	-34	0	0	0	0
	Capital revenue			24	0	0	64	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Change in arrears (- = decrease)			-369	-210	0	-33	-33	0	0	0	0	0
	Privatization proceeds			626	0	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Memorandum items:
Basic balance ³				614	-133	-455	-30	-263	-17	75	159	259	263
Basic primary balance ⁴				1,429	580	287	732	558	811	929	1,044	1,172	1,212
Gross domestic interest bearing debt				4,546	4,571	5,082	4,872	5,973	6,486	6,953	6,953	7,146	7,419
Stock of arrears ⁵				192	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stock of HIPC and MDRI debt relief
	Of which: IMF			336
	IDA			4,652
	A1DF			3,518
Resources freed by debt relief				108	495	585	584	599	532	553	543	472	472
	Amortization			101	378	458	468	480	419	446	443	384	384
	Interest payments			7	116	126	ll6	119	113	107	100	87	87
Uses of resources feed by debt relief				108	495	585	584	599	532	553	543	472	472
	Current expenditures			0	129	131	138	138	173	178	197	189	189
	Capital expenditures			0	129	220	207	207	173	178	161	157	157
	Savings			108	172	234	239	254	186	197	185	126	126
Expenditures financed by privatization receipts				159	391	107	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹The difference between financing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

^²In 2010, includes bridge loan fom CBG for part of the shortfall in disbursements of budget support.

^³Domestic revenue - expenditure and net lending, excluding externally financed capital spending.

^⁴Domestic revenue - expenditure and net lending, excluding interest payments and externally financed capital spending.

^⁵Change in arrears for 2008 includes an additional D25 million for repayments to the National Water and Electricity Company (HAWEC).

Table 2.

The Gambia: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government

(In millions of local currency)

				2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
				Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.

Total revenue and grants				3,663	3,745	4,790	5,474	4,756	5,342	5,857	6,501	7,242	7,998
	Revenue			3,468	3,500	3,891	4,413	4,066	4,591	5,097	5,687	6,347	7,013
		Tax revenue		3,037	3,146	3,519	3,991	3,620	4,117	4,569	5,096	5,684	6,459
			Taxes on income, profits, and capital gains	884	1,125	974	1,185	1,102	1,230	1,373	1,547	1,743	2,005
			Domestic taxes on goods and services	1,345	1,313	1,395	1,572	1,546	1,750	1,942	2,163	2,410	2,736
			Taxes on international trade and transaction	808	708	1,148	1,234	973	1,136	1,255	1,386	1,531	1,718
		Non-tax		421	354	371	422	446	474	528	591	663	554
	Grants			194	244	899	1,061	690	751	760	814	895	985
		Budget support		20	79	189	425	79	79	20	0	0	0
		Project grants		174	I66	710	636	612	673	740	814	895	985
Expenditures and net lending				3,635	4,139	5,683	5,770	5,555	6,184	6,697	7,308	7,979	8,762
	Current expenditures			2,586	3,186	3,622	4,014	3,877	4,049	4,358	4,739	5,147	5,623
		Wages and salaries		680	983	1,192	1,499	1,461	1,662	1,836	2,028	2,240	2,475
		Other charges		1,091	1,489	1,689	1,752	1,595	1,560	1,668	1,827	1,995	2,204
		Interest		815	713	741	762	821	828	854	885	912	944
			External	231	154	153	176	183	194	212	230	247	259
			Domestic	584	560	588	586	638	633	642	655	665	685
	Capital expenditure			973	857	1,924	1,692	1,679	2,085	2,289	2,518	2,782	3,089
		Foreign financed		780	505	1,338	1,327	1,227	1,576	1,675	1,780	1,892	2,017
		Gambia local fund (GLF)		192	352	586	365	452	509	613	739	890	1,072
	Net lending			76	96	138	64	0	50	50	50	50	50
Overall balance (excl. statistical discrepancy)				28	-394	-894	-296	-799	-842	-840	-807	-737	-764
Statistical discrepancy ¹				48	-11	385	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Overall balance				76	-405	-509	-296	-799	-842	-840	-807	-737	-764
Financing				-76	405	509	296	799	842	840	807	737	764
	External fnancing (net)			158	30	129	356	271	531	523	510	494	491
		Borrowing		586	340	628	691	615	904	935	966	996	1,032
		Amortization		-428	-310	-499	-335	-344	-372	-412	-445	-503	-541
	Domestic financing (net)			-234	375	379	-60	528	310	317	297	243	273
		Net borrowing		-514	585	370	-90	561	310	317	297	243	273
			Bank ²	-68	1,044	376	-7	536	230	130	80	80	182
			Nonbank	-267	-369	42	-7	102	115	187	217	163	91
			Repayment of domestic debt	-179	-89	-49	-77	-77	-34	0	0	0	0
	Capital revenue			24	0	0	64	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Change in arrears (- = decrease)			-369	-210	0	-33	-33	0	0	0	0	0
	Privatization proceeds			626	0	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Memorandum items:
Basic balance ³				614	-133	-455	-30	-263	-17	75	159	259	263
Basic primary balance ⁴				1,429	580	287	732	558	811	929	1,044	1,172	1,212
Gross domestic interest bearing debt				4,546	4,571	5,082	4,872	5,973	6,486	6,953	6,953	7,146	7,419
Stock of arrears ⁵				192	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stock of HIPC and MDRI debt relief
	Of which: IMF			336
	IDA			4,652
	A1DF			3,518
Resources freed by debt relief				108	495	585	584	599	532	553	543	472	472
	Amortization			101	378	458	468	480	419	446	443	384	384
	Interest payments			7	116	126	ll6	119	113	107	100	87	87
Uses of resources feed by debt relief				108	495	585	584	599	532	553	543	472	472
	Current expenditures			0	129	131	138	138	173	178	197	189	189
	Capital expenditures			0	129	220	207	207	173	178	161	157	157
	Savings			108	172	234	239	254	186	197	185	126	126
Expenditures financed by privatization receipts				159	391	107	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹The difference between financing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

^²In 2010, includes bridge loan fom CBG for part of the shortfall in disbursements of budget support.

^³Domestic revenue - expenditure and net lending, excluding externally financed capital spending.

^⁴Domestic revenue - expenditure and net lending, excluding interest payments and externally financed capital spending.

^⁵Change in arrears for 2008 includes an additional D25 million for repayments to the National Water and Electricity Company (HAWEC).

Table 3.

The Gambia: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government

(In percent of GDP)

Sources: Gambian authorities: and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹The difference between inancing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

^²In 2010, includes bridge loan from CBG fer part ofthe shortfell in disbursements ofbudget support.

^³Domestic revenue -expenditure and net lending, excluding externally Inanced capital spending.

^⁴Domestic revenue -expenditure and net lending, excluding interest payments and externally inanced capital spending.

^⁵Change in arrears fer 2008 includes an additional D25- million for repayments to the National Water and E lectricrty Company (NAWEC).

^⁶As a percentage of new GDP data.

Table 3.

The Gambia: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government

(In percent of GDP)

				2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
				Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	6th Rev.⁶	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.

Total revenue and grants				17.8	16.3	18.6	25.5	19.3	16.7	17.0	16.9	16.9	17.1	17.1
	Revenue			16.9	15.2	15.1	20.5	15.5	14.3	14.6	14.7	14.8	15.0	15.0
		Tax Revenue		14.8	13.7	13.6	18.6	14.0	12.7	13.1	13.2	13.3	13.4	13.8
		Non-tax		2.1	1.5	1.4	2.0	1.5	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.2
	Grants			0.9	1.1	3.5	4.9	3.7	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.1
		Budget support		0 1	0.3	0.7	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.1	0 0	0.0	0.0
		Project grants		0.8	0.7	2.8	3.0	2.2	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
Expenditures and net lending				17.7	18.0	22.0	26.9	20.3	19.5	19.7	19.3	19.1	18.8	18.7
	Current expenditures			12.6	13.9	14.0	18.7	14.1	13.6	12.9	12.6	12.4	12.1	12.0
		Wages and salaries		3.3	4.3	4.6	7.0	5.3	5.1	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
		Other charges		5.3	6.5	6.5	8.2	6.2	5.6	5.0	4.8	4.8	4.7	4.7
		Interest		4.0	3.1	2.9	3.5	2.7	2.9	2.6	2.5	2.3	2.2	2.0
			External	1.1	0.7	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
			Domestic	2.8	2.4	2.3	2.7	2.1	2.2	2.0	1.8	1.7	1.6	1.5
	Capital expenditure			4.7	3.7	7.5	7.9	6.0	5.9	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6
		Foreign financed		3.8	2.2	5.2	6.2	4.7	4.3	5.0	4.8	4.6	4.5	4.3
		Domestic financed		0.9	1.5	2.3	1.7	1.3	1.6	1.6	1.8	1.9	2.1	2.3
	Net lending			0.4	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Overall balance (exci. statistical discrepancy)				0.1	-1.7	-3.5	-1.4	-1.0	-2.8	-2.7	-2.4	-2.1	-1.7	-1.6
Statistical discrepancy ¹				0.2	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Overall balance				0.4	-1.8	-2.0	-1.4	-1.0	-2.8	-2.7	-2.4	-2.1	-1.7	-1.6
Financing				-0.4	1.8	2.0	1.4	1.0	2.8	2.7	2.4	2.1	1.7	1.6
	External financing (net)			0.8	0.1	0.5	1.7	1.3	1.0	1.7	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.0
		Borrowing		2.9	1.5	2.4	3.2	2.4	2.2	2.9	2.7	2.5	2.4	2.2
		Amortization		-2.1	-1.3	-1.9	-1.6	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2
	Domestic financing (net)			-1.1	l.6	1.5	-0.3	-0.2	1.9	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.6
		Net borrowing		-2.5	2.5	1.4	-0.4	-0.3	2.0	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.6
			Bank ²	-0.3	4.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	1.9	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.4
			Nonbank	-1.3	-1.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2
			Repayment ofdomestic debt	-0.9	-0.4	-0.2	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Capital revenue			0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Change in arrears (- = decrease;			-1.8	-0.9	0.0	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Privatization proceeds			3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Memorandum items:
Basic balance ³				3.0	-0.6	-1.8	-0.1	-0.1	-0.9	-0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.6
Basic primary balance ⁴				7.0	2.5	1.1	3.4	2.6	2.0	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.8	2.6
Gross domestic interest bearing debt				22.1	19.9	19.7	22.7	17.1	21.0	20.6	20.0	18.1	16.9	15.8
Stock of arrears ⁵				0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Stock of HIPC and MDRI debt relief
	Of which: IMF			1.6
	IDA			22.6
	ADF			17.1
Resources feed by debt relief				0.5	2.2	2.3	2.7	2.1	2.1	1.7	1.6	1.4	1.1	1.0
	Amortization			0.5	1.6	1.8	2 2	1.6	1.7	1.3	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.8
	Interest payments			0 0	0 5	0 5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2
Uses of resources feed by debt relief				0.5	2.2	2.3	2.7	2.1	2.1	1.7	1.6	1.4	1.1	1.0
	Current expenditures			0.0	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4
	Capital expenditures			0.0	0.8	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3
	Savings			0.5	0.7	0.9	1.1	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3
Expenditures financed by privatization receipts				0.8	1.7	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Sources: Gambian authorities: and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹The difference between inancing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

^²In 2010, includes bridge loan from CBG fer part ofthe shortfell in disbursements ofbudget support.

^³Domestic revenue -expenditure and net lending, excluding externally Inanced capital spending.

^⁴Domestic revenue -expenditure and net lending, excluding interest payments and externally inanced capital spending.

^⁵Change in arrears fer 2008 includes an additional D25- million for repayments to the National Water and E lectricrty Company (NAWEC).

^⁶As a percentage of new GDP data.

Table 3.

The Gambia: Fiscal Operations of the Central Government

(In percent of GDP)

				2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
				Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	6th Rev.⁶	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.

Total revenue and grants				17.8	16.3	18.6	25.5	19.3	16.7	17.0	16.9	16.9	17.1	17.1
	Revenue			16.9	15.2	15.1	20.5	15.5	14.3	14.6	14.7	14.8	15.0	15.0
		Tax Revenue		14.8	13.7	13.6	18.6	14.0	12.7	13.1	13.2	13.3	13.4	13.8
		Non-tax		2.1	1.5	1.4	2.0	1.5	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.2
	Grants			0.9	1.1	3.5	4.9	3.7	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.1
		Budget support		0 1	0.3	0.7	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.1	0 0	0.0	0.0
		Project grants		0.8	0.7	2.8	3.0	2.2	2.2	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
Expenditures and net lending				17.7	18.0	22.0	26.9	20.3	19.5	19.7	19.3	19.1	18.8	18.7
	Current expenditures			12.6	13.9	14.0	18.7	14.1	13.6	12.9	12.6	12.4	12.1	12.0
		Wages and salaries		3.3	4.3	4.6	7.0	5.3	5.1	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
		Other charges		5.3	6.5	6.5	8.2	6.2	5.6	5.0	4.8	4.8	4.7	4.7
		Interest		4.0	3.1	2.9	3.5	2.7	2.9	2.6	2.5	2.3	2.2	2.0
			External	1.1	0.7	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
			Domestic	2.8	2.4	2.3	2.7	2.1	2.2	2.0	1.8	1.7	1.6	1.5
	Capital expenditure			4.7	3.7	7.5	7.9	6.0	5.9	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6	6.6
		Foreign financed		3.8	2.2	5.2	6.2	4.7	4.3	5.0	4.8	4.6	4.5	4.3
		Domestic financed		0.9	1.5	2.3	1.7	1.3	1.6	1.6	1.8	1.9	2.1	2.3
	Net lending			0.4	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Overall balance (exci. statistical discrepancy)				0.1	-1.7	-3.5	-1.4	-1.0	-2.8	-2.7	-2.4	-2.1	-1.7	-1.6
Statistical discrepancy ¹				0.2	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Overall balance				0.4	-1.8	-2.0	-1.4	-1.0	-2.8	-2.7	-2.4	-2.1	-1.7	-1.6
Financing				-0.4	1.8	2.0	1.4	1.0	2.8	2.7	2.4	2.1	1.7	1.6
	External financing (net)			0.8	0.1	0.5	1.7	1.3	1.0	1.7	1.5	1.3	1.2	1.0
		Borrowing		2.9	1.5	2.4	3.2	2.4	2.2	2.9	2.7	2.5	2.4	2.2
		Amortization		-2.1	-1.3	-1.9	-1.6	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2
	Domestic financing (net)			-1.1	l.6	1.5	-0.3	-0.2	1.9	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.6
		Net borrowing		-2.5	2.5	1.4	-0.4	-0.3	2.0	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.6
			Bank ²	-0.3	4.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	1.9	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.4
			Nonbank	-1.3	-1.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2
			Repayment ofdomestic debt	-0.9	-0.4	-0.2	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Capital revenue			0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Change in arrears (- = decrease;			-1.8	-0.9	0.0	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Privatization proceeds			3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Memorandum items:
Basic balance ³				3.0	-0.6	-1.8	-0.1	-0.1	-0.9	-0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.6
Basic primary balance ⁴				7.0	2.5	1.1	3.4	2.6	2.0	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.8	2.6
Gross domestic interest bearing debt				22.1	19.9	19.7	22.7	17.1	21.0	20.6	20.0	18.1	16.9	15.8
Stock of arrears ⁵				0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Stock of HIPC and MDRI debt relief
	Of which: IMF			1.6
	IDA			22.6
	ADF			17.1
Resources feed by debt relief				0.5	2.2	2.3	2.7	2.1	2.1	1.7	1.6	1.4	1.1	1.0
	Amortization			0.5	1.6	1.8	2 2	1.6	1.7	1.3	1.3	1.2	0.9	0.8
	Interest payments			0 0	0 5	0 5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2
Uses of resources feed by debt relief				0.5	2.2	2.3	2.7	2.1	2.1	1.7	1.6	1.4	1.1	1.0
	Current expenditures			0.0	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4
	Capital expenditures			0.0	0.8	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3
	Savings			0.5	0.7	0.9	1.1	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3
Expenditures financed by privatization receipts				0.8	1.7	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Sources: Gambian authorities: and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹The difference between inancing and the overall balance of revenue and expenditures.

^²In 2010, includes bridge loan from CBG fer part ofthe shortfell in disbursements ofbudget support.

^³Domestic revenue -expenditure and net lending, excluding externally Inanced capital spending.

^⁴Domestic revenue -expenditure and net lending, excluding interest payments and externally inanced capital spending.

^⁵Change in arrears fer 2008 includes an additional D25- million for repayments to the National Water and E lectricrty Company (NAWEC).

^⁶As a percentage of new GDP data.

Table 4.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts ^1/

(In millions of local currency; unless otherwise indicated)

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}End of period

^{^2/}Include public enterprises and the local government.

^{^3/}Including valuation.

Table 4.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts ^1/

(In millions of local currency; unless otherwise indicated)

			2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
			Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
			I. Depository Corporation Survey
Net foreign assets			4,022	3,504	3,869	4,061	3,852	3,870	4,082	4,569	5,294	6,018
Net domestic assets			4,252	6,292	7,826	8,536	9,307	10,888	12,454	13,961	15,478	17,275
	Domestic credit		4,200	6,436	7,491	8,118	9,085	10,580	12,159	13,637	15,121	16,883
		Claims on central government (net)	1,189	2,661	3,033	2,578	3,569	3,799	3,929	4,009	4,089	4,169
		Claims on other public sector ^2/	229	428	765	925	1,223	1,468	1,688	1,857	2,043	2,247
		Claims on private sector	2,783	3,347	3,694	4,615	4,292	5,313	6,542	7,772	8,990	10,467
	Other items (net) ^3/		51	-144	335	418	223	308	294	324	356	392
Broad money			8,274	9,796	11,695	12,597	13,160	14,758	16,535	18,530	20,772	23,293
	Currency outside banks		1,689	1,833	2,005	2,131	2,256	2,530	2,835	3,176	3,561	3,993
	Deposits		6,585	7,963	9,690	10,465	10,904	12,228	13,701	15,353	17,211	19,300
			II. Central Bank
Net foreign assets			3,049	2,742	3,198	2,967	2,975	2,985	3,090	3,458	4,051	4,625
	Foreign assets		3,192	3,069	5,010	4,905	4,927	5,111	5,280	5,674	6,239	6,605
	Foreign liabilities		-142	-327	-1,812	-1,938	-1,952	-2,126	-2,190	-2,216	-2,188	-1,980
Net domestic assets			-305	160	-26	484	488	878	1,216	1,342	1,303	1,347
	Domestic credit		-903	157	-293	105	73	154	184	215	245	276
		Claims on central government (net)	-1,294	-219	-434	-278	-74	6	36	66	96	126
		Claims on banks (net)	34	45	12	45	15	18	21	24	27	30
		Claims on private sector	220	229	45	236	47	50	52	55	58	60
		Claims on public enterprises	137	103	85	103	85	80	75	70	65	60
	Other items (net) ^3/		599	3	266	379	414	725	1,032	1,127	1,057	1,071
Reserve money			2,745	2,902	3,171	3,451	3,463	3,863	4,306	4,800	5,354	5,973
	Currency outside banks		1,689	1,833	2,005	2,131	2,256	2,530	2,835	3,176	3,561	3,993
	Commercial bank deposits		1,055	1,069	1,167	1,320	1,207	1,333	1,471	1,624	1,793	1,980

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}End of period

^{^2/}Include public enterprises and the local government.

^{^3/}Including valuation.

Table 4.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts ^1/

(In millions of local currency; unless otherwise indicated)

			2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
			Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
			I. Depository Corporation Survey
Net foreign assets			4,022	3,504	3,869	4,061	3,852	3,870	4,082	4,569	5,294	6,018
Net domestic assets			4,252	6,292	7,826	8,536	9,307	10,888	12,454	13,961	15,478	17,275
	Domestic credit		4,200	6,436	7,491	8,118	9,085	10,580	12,159	13,637	15,121	16,883
		Claims on central government (net)	1,189	2,661	3,033	2,578	3,569	3,799	3,929	4,009	4,089	4,169
		Claims on other public sector ^2/	229	428	765	925	1,223	1,468	1,688	1,857	2,043	2,247
		Claims on private sector	2,783	3,347	3,694	4,615	4,292	5,313	6,542	7,772	8,990	10,467
	Other items (net) ^3/		51	-144	335	418	223	308	294	324	356	392
Broad money			8,274	9,796	11,695	12,597	13,160	14,758	16,535	18,530	20,772	23,293
	Currency outside banks		1,689	1,833	2,005	2,131	2,256	2,530	2,835	3,176	3,561	3,993
	Deposits		6,585	7,963	9,690	10,465	10,904	12,228	13,701	15,353	17,211	19,300
			II. Central Bank
Net foreign assets			3,049	2,742	3,198	2,967	2,975	2,985	3,090	3,458	4,051	4,625
	Foreign assets		3,192	3,069	5,010	4,905	4,927	5,111	5,280	5,674	6,239	6,605
	Foreign liabilities		-142	-327	-1,812	-1,938	-1,952	-2,126	-2,190	-2,216	-2,188	-1,980
Net domestic assets			-305	160	-26	484	488	878	1,216	1,342	1,303	1,347
	Domestic credit		-903	157	-293	105	73	154	184	215	245	276
		Claims on central government (net)	-1,294	-219	-434	-278	-74	6	36	66	96	126
		Claims on banks (net)	34	45	12	45	15	18	21	24	27	30
		Claims on private sector	220	229	45	236	47	50	52	55	58	60
		Claims on public enterprises	137	103	85	103	85	80	75	70	65	60
	Other items (net) ^3/		599	3	266	379	414	725	1,032	1,127	1,057	1,071
Reserve money			2,745	2,902	3,171	3,451	3,463	3,863	4,306	4,800	5,354	5,973
	Currency outside banks		1,689	1,833	2,005	2,131	2,256	2,530	2,835	3,176	3,561	3,993
	Commercial bank deposits		1,055	1,069	1,167	1,320	1,207	1,333	1,471	1,624	1,793	1,980

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}End of period

^{^2/}Include public enterprises and the local government.

^{^3/}Including valuation.

Table 5.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts ^1/

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}End of period

^{^2/}Include public enterprises and the local government.

^{^3/}Including valuation.

Table 5.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts ^1/

			2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
			Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
							I. Monetary Survey
					(Percent change; in beginning of period broad money)
Net foreign assets			-3.5	-6.3	3.7	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	2.9	4.0	4.3	3.6
Net domestic assets			10.1	24.7	15.7	11.1	12.7	12.0	9.2	8.1	7.8	8.6
	Domestic credit		0.2	27.0	10.8	8.6	13.6	11.4	9.3	7.9	7.7	8.4
		Claims on central government (net)	-4.1	17.8	3.8	-0.1	4.6	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.4
		Claims on other public sector ^2/	-0.5	2.4	3.4	0.4	3.9	1.9	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0
		Claims on private sector	4.8	6.8	3.5	8.2	5.1	7.8	6.9	6.4	6.2	7.0
	Other items (net) ^3/		9.9	-2.4	4.9	2.5	-1.0	0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
Broad money			6.7	18.4	19.4	10.9	12.5	12.1	12.0	12.1	12.1	12.1
	Currency outside banks		-3.2	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
	Deposits		9.9	16.7	17.6	9.1	10.4	10.1	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.1
							II. Central Bank
			(Percent change; in beginning of period monetary base)
Net foreign assets			7.7	-11.2	15.7	-7.5	-7.0	0.3	8.2	12.5	13.7	11.0
	Foreign assets		-4.7	-4.5	66.9	-3.1	-2.6	5.3	9.9	13.1	13.1	7.1
	Foreign liabilities		12.4	-6.7	-51.2	-4.4	-4.4	-5.0	-1.7	-0.6	0.6	3.9
Net domestic assets			-12.0	16.9	-6.4	15.4	16.2	11.3	3.2	-1.0	-2.2	0.6
	Domestic credit		-23.2	38.6	-15.5	6.3	11.5	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6
		Claims on central government (net)	-23.4	39.2	-7.4	6.1	11.4	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6
		Claims on banks (net)	0.0	0.4	-1.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
		Claims on private sector	0.2	0.3	-6.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
		Claims on public enterprises	0.0	-1.2	-0.6	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
	Other items (net) ^3/		11.2	-21.7	9.1	9.1	4.7	9.0	2.4	-1.7	-2.8	0.0
Reserve money			-4.3	5.7	9.3	7.9	9.2	11.6	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.6
	Currency outside banks		-8.7	5.2	5.9	6.6	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	8.0	8.1
	Commercial bank deposits		4.4	0.5	3.4	1.3	1.3	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.5
Memorandum Items:
	Growth of credit to the private sector		15.4	20.3	10.3	23.2	16.2	23.8	19.1	16.8	15.6	17.1
	Velocity		1.86	2.86	1.80	1.79	1.79	1.78	1.77	1.76	1.75	2.75
	Money Multiplier		3.01	3.38	3.69	3.65	3.80	3.82	3.84	3.86	3.88	3.90

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}End of period

^{^2/}Include public enterprises and the local government.

^{^3/}Including valuation.

Table 5.

The Gambia: Monetary Accounts ^1/

			2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
			Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
							I. Monetary Survey
					(Percent change; in beginning of period broad money)
Net foreign assets			-3.5	-6.3	3.7	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	2.9	4.0	4.3	3.6
Net domestic assets			10.1	24.7	15.7	11.1	12.7	12.0	9.2	8.1	7.8	8.6
	Domestic credit		0.2	27.0	10.8	8.6	13.6	11.4	9.3	7.9	7.7	8.4
		Claims on central government (net)	-4.1	17.8	3.8	-0.1	4.6	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.4
		Claims on other public sector ^2/	-0.5	2.4	3.4	0.4	3.9	1.9	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0
		Claims on private sector	4.8	6.8	3.5	8.2	5.1	7.8	6.9	6.4	6.2	7.0
	Other items (net) ^3/		9.9	-2.4	4.9	2.5	-1.0	0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
Broad money			6.7	18.4	19.4	10.9	12.5	12.1	12.0	12.1	12.1	12.1
	Currency outside banks		-3.2	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
	Deposits		9.9	16.7	17.6	9.1	10.4	10.1	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.1
							II. Central Bank
			(Percent change; in beginning of period monetary base)
Net foreign assets			7.7	-11.2	15.7	-7.5	-7.0	0.3	8.2	12.5	13.7	11.0
	Foreign assets		-4.7	-4.5	66.9	-3.1	-2.6	5.3	9.9	13.1	13.1	7.1
	Foreign liabilities		12.4	-6.7	-51.2	-4.4	-4.4	-5.0	-1.7	-0.6	0.6	3.9
Net domestic assets			-12.0	16.9	-6.4	15.4	16.2	11.3	3.2	-1.0	-2.2	0.6
	Domestic credit		-23.2	38.6	-15.5	6.3	11.5	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6
		Claims on central government (net)	-23.4	39.2	-7.4	6.1	11.4	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6
		Claims on banks (net)	0.0	0.4	-1.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
		Claims on private sector	0.2	0.3	-6.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
		Claims on public enterprises	0.0	-1.2	-0.6	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
	Other items (net) ^3/		11.2	-21.7	9.1	9.1	4.7	9.0	2.4	-1.7	-2.8	0.0
Reserve money			-4.3	5.7	9.3	7.9	9.2	11.6	11.5	11.5	11.5	11.6
	Currency outside banks		-8.7	5.2	5.9	6.6	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	8.0	8.1
	Commercial bank deposits		4.4	0.5	3.4	1.3	1.3	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.5
Memorandum Items:
	Growth of credit to the private sector		15.4	20.3	10.3	23.2	16.2	23.8	19.1	16.8	15.6	17.1
	Velocity		1.86	2.86	1.80	1.79	1.79	1.78	1.77	1.76	1.75	2.75
	Money Multiplier		3.01	3.38	3.69	3.65	3.80	3.82	3.84	3.86	3.88	3.90

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^{^1/}End of period

^{^2/}Include public enterprises and the local government.

^{^3/}Including valuation.

Table 6.

The Gambia: Balance of Payments

(In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated)

Sources: Gambian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

^¹Includes SDR allocation of approximately US$39 million in 2009.

^²Includes first disbursement (7.5 percent of quota, US$ 3.7 million) of the augmentation in 2010.

Table 6.

The Gambia: Balance of Payments

(In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated)

			2007	2008	2009	2010	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
			Act.	Act.	Act.	6th Rev.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.
1.	Current account
A.	Goods and services		-105.3	-158.4	-144.8	-170.2	-156.2	-166.3	-174.2	-184.4	-196.8	-221.1
Trade balance			-171.5	-221.3	-202.5	-214.6	-216.8	-232.1	-247.8	-265.9	-284.8	-313.3
	Exports, f.o.b.		91.4	87.4	94.8	89.2	99.5	104.3	109.4	114.4	119.5	123.1
		Of which: domestic exports	7.8	7.2	5.3	8.1	5.7	6.1	6.4	6.9	7.4	8.0
	Imports, f.o.b		-262.9	-308.7	-297.3	-303.7	-316.3	-336.4	-357.2	-380.3	-404.3	-436.4
		Of which: oil	-28.5	-38.7	-30.7	-35.9	-35.3	-34.5	-33.9	-32.9	-31.7	-30.8
Services (net)			66.3	63.0	57.7	44.3	60.6	65.7	73.6	81.5	88.0	92.2
		Of which: travel income	81.2	83.0	74.7	78.4	78.4	82.3	92.2	104.2	116.7	125.9
B.	Income (net)		-46.8	-45.9	-43.2

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Abstract

I. Background: Achieving Macroeconomic Stability, While Dealing with a Heavy Debt Burden