Republic of Serbia
Financial Sector Assessment Program Update: Detailed Assessment of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision

This paper discusses key findings of the Detailed Assessment of Basel Core Principles (BCPs) for Effective Banking Supervision on the Republic of Serbia. The assessment reveals that Serbia has made considerable progress toward enhanced compliance with the BCPs and with international standards. A major overhaul of the legal framework—the enactment of the new laws on banks in 2005 and the issuance of new regulations—has provided the basis for this improvement, which are reflected in upgraded scores for a considerable number of BCPs.

Abstract

This paper discusses key findings of the Detailed Assessment of Basel Core Principles (BCPs) for Effective Banking Supervision on the Republic of Serbia. The assessment reveals that Serbia has made considerable progress toward enhanced compliance with the BCPs and with international standards. A major overhaul of the legal framework—the enactment of the new laws on banks in 2005 and the issuance of new regulations—has provided the basis for this improvement, which are reflected in upgraded scores for a considerable number of BCPs.

I. Summary, Key Findings, and Recommendations

Introduction

1. This assessment of the Basel Core Principles (BCP) was conducted as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) updated evaluation of the Serbia financial system from October 6 to October 21, 2009. The supervisory framework was assessed against the BCP methodology issued in October 2006. The assessment was conducted by Mr. Miquel Dijkman, World Bank staff, and Mr. Fernand Naert, a consultant with the IMF and former CBFA staff.

Information and Methodology used for Assessment

2. The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) generously provided the assessment team with key documentation, including a self-assessment of compliance with the 25 BCPs completed by the Banking Supervision Department, the legal and regulatory framework for banking supervision as well as numerous documents available at the NBS’s website. During their stay, the assessors held extensive discussions with staff of the NBS banking supervision department, which includes staff from the on and off site division, the legal division, and the Basel II implementation unit, as well as the legal department, accounting and finance and the international relations department. The assessors also met with representatives from the Ministry of Finance and banking institutions. The assessors enjoyed excellent cooperation with their counterparts and received all the information requested. The team extends its thanks to the staff of the various institutions and in particular to the staff of the NBS for their participation in the process and their hospitality.

3. The assessment of compliance with each principle is made on a qualitative basis. A four-part assessment system is used: compliant; largely compliant; materially non-compliant; and non-compliant. To achieve a “compliant” assessment with a principle, all essential iteria generally must be met without any significant deficiencies. A “largely compliant” assessment is given if only minor shortcomings are observed, and these are not seen as sufficient to raise serious doubts about the authority’s ability to achieve the objective of that principle. A “materially non-compliant” assessment is given when the shortcomings are sufficient to raise doubts about the authority’s ability to achieve compliance, but substantive progress has been made. A ‘non-compliant’ assessment is given when no substantive progress toward compliance has been achieved.

4. The ratings assigned during this assessment are not comparable to the ones assigned in the 2005 FSAP, as the bar to measure the effectiveness of a supervisory framework has been raised in the new methodology. New iteria have also been added while existing ones have been redefined following the revision of the methodology in october 2006.

Institutional and Macroeconomic setting and Market structure-overview

5. The Serbian financial sector is dominated by the banking industry, which accounts for 89 percent of the financial sector assets. Total financial assets amount to 71 percent of GDP. Currently 34 banks operate in Serbia. They are represented by 8 state-controlled banks (representing 15 percent of total financial sector assets), 6 local private banks (8 percent of total financial sector assets) and 20 foreign-owned banks (66 percent of total financial sector assets). The NBS is responsible for licensing, regulation and supervision of the aforementioned banks, hereinafter called “scheduled banks”. The NBS is also responsible for the supervision of insurance companies, voluntary pension funds and leasing companies. Although nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) have been growing apace, they remain small with assets representing 11% of the banking sector.

6. Following the complete overhaul of the financial system in the early transition years, the NBS has undertaken major efforts to upgrade the legal and regulatory framework for banking supervision. The 2005 Law on Banks (LOB) envisaged harmonization of the legal framework with international standards, European Union (EU) Directives and the BCPs on banking supervision. The NBS also has enhanced risk management standards in the banking sector by issuing new regulation. Banks are now required to set up risk management systems, including risk identification, measurement, assessment and mitigation taking into account the scope, type, and complexity of their operations. Furthermore, the NBS issued specific rules on a large number of aspects of banking operations, including liquidity risk management, capital adequacy requirements, loan classification and provisioning, external auditing and know-your-customer procedures. Mirroring increasing foreign ownership in the Serbian banking sector, the NBS also intensified cooperation with foreign supervisors, although cooperation still needs to be formalized in the form of bilateral Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with a number of important home supervisors.

7. The run-up to the 2008 crisis was characterized by a rapid expansion of banks’ balance sheets, financed primarily by buoyant growth in foreign-currency deposits and foreign borrowing. Although new loans were predominantly dinar-denominated, most were indexed to the euro, thereby increasing the banks’ credit risk resulting from their borrowers’ exposure to exchange rate risk. In response to these developments, the NBS introduced a special 125 percent risk-weight that is applied to unsecured foreign-currency lending to borrowers with an unmatched foreign currency position, and 75 percent risk-weight that is applied to foreign-currency lending to borrowers with an unmatched foreign currency position but secured by a mortgage on residential property. The NBS had also imposed limits on the ratio of gross household loans to core capital. The limit was lowered from 200 percent to 150 percent in November 2007 before it was abolished altogether in June 2009. A number of foreign banks responded by increasing capital. As a result, Serbian banks were (and are) among the best-capitalized in the region, with capital adequacy in the order of 20 percent. Liquidity ratios were similarly reassuring, with liquid assets representing more than 40 percent of total assets. Partly reflecting high solvency buffers, profitability in the Serbian banking system was typically low by regional standards. By 2009H1, the average return on equity (ROE) amounted to 4.1 percent, compared to 9.3 percent in 2008.

8. The global financial turmoil began to spill over to Serbia in the late 2008. The turmoil manifested itself initially in the form of a sharp deterioration in the financial outlook, including sharp corrections in the stock market, rising sovereign spreads, slowing capital inflows and—amid high volatility and frequent NBS interventions—a depreciation of the dinar. Following false rumors about an impending banking crisis, households withdrew some of their foreign-currency denominated deposits. Credit growth came to a sudden halt and the economy went into a recession.

9. Although the Serbian banking sector entered the crisis with reassuring solvency and liquidity buffers, these developments signaled increasing financial stability risks. The deteriorated economic outlook has strongly affected the corporate sector’s financial condition, as illustrated by a sharp increase in non-performing assets. Households’ balance sheets were hit by a combination of rising unemployment and the depreciation of the dinar. The latter caused financial stress as most households are unhedged borrowers in foreign currency loans. As a result, nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased from 11.3 percent of total loans in 2008 to 16.5 percent in 2009H1. NPLs are more than covered with total provisions.

10. In response to the crisis, Serbia launched a Financial Sector Support Program (FSSP), involving a balanced mix of commitments and incentives to ensure that the banking system’s capital and liquidity levels remain adequate. This involves a commitment of parent banks of participating foreign subsidiaries to maintain their exposure to Serbia at end-2008 level, provide adequate capital and liquidity support to their subsidiaries and have their subsidiaries participate in a diagnostic study involving stress tests. Subsidiaries and local banks participating in the FSSP are required to facilitate voluntary conversion of foreign exchange (FX) and FX-linked loans into local currency loans, work with the NBS toward developing a common loan workout scheme, and facilitate loan restructuring under a pre-agreed framework. This entails an extension of remaining loan maturity by at least 12 months or 20 percent with reduced monthly payments, or any other restructuring lowering monthly payments by at least 20 percent. ln return, banks participating in the FSSP are granted access to an extended dinar liquidity facility and an FX swap facility.

Preconditions for Effective Banking supervision

11. Prior to the crisis, Serbia posted several years of solid economic growth, which was mainly driven by buoyant domestic demand and was accompanied by increasing external imbalances. The NBS introduced inflation targeting by end-2006 and conducts a managed float of the dinar. This has contributed to a gradual decline in headline inflation figures, currently around 9 percent y-o-y. ln the run-up to the crisis, rising fiscal deficits were offset by a booming economy, causing the public debt ratio to decline. Gross public debt currently stands at around 32 percent of GDP.

12. Serbia currently faces a number of risks to its macroeconomic and financial sector stability, of which are direct relevance to the banking sector. These include inter alia a scenario of prolonged weakness, which could be exacerbated by a slow economic recovery in Serbia’s main trading partners. This would further deteriorate asset quality, with a corresponding deterioration of banks’ balance sheets. Another key risk is the recurrence of FX market pressures. A depreciating currency is associated with increasing financial stress for unhedged borrowers, primarily households. Although banks have shifted exchange rate risk to the household and real sectors, FX risk would resurface in the form of rising credit risk.

13. Weaknesses in enforcement and insolvency mechanisms are among the principal shortcomings in the public infrastructure. Loan loss mitigation in Serbia is hampered by a still evolving but uneven collateral and enforcement framework that complicates restructuring and leads to delays and lower recoveries in execution procedures. On the other hand, some collection mechanisms, like the blocked account process, work almost too efficiently and can cause rapidly escalating blockages of company’s current accounts and immobilize corporate activity. Parts of the collateral and enforcement framework have been improved over the past years, but collective procedures for voluntary dissolution and court supervised insolvency are still costly and ineffective. Judicial enforcement still takes long to obtain and enforcing a judgment on collateral may take up to 2-3 years. Although reforms are underway, creditor recoveries in the insolvency process in Serbia are among the most costly and yield the lowest returns in the region.

14. Market discipline seems to be well-established in the Serbian financial sector. Banks in Serbia operate in a rather competitive environment, with 34 banks operating in a small, bank-dominated financial system. This is also illustrated by the stability of net interest margins, despite a large drop in profitability in 2009. Banking regulation and supervisory practices do not discriminate between different categories of banks, ensuring a level playing field.

15. In the context of the financial crisis, several aspects of the crisis management framework were significantly enhanced. Besides the additional liquidity facilities for banks participating in the FSSP (see para 10), the NBS opened LOLR facilities up to one year at 150 percent of the policy rate to solvent banks against selected liquid collateral. ln response to the deposit run in late 2008, deposit insurance coverage was raised drastically from EUR 3,000—per private individual depositor per bank to EUR 50,000—while the list of eligible depositors was extended to include sole entrepreneurs and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Coverage levels are currently very high, as 99 percent of deposits of the banking system by number and 90 percent by volume are covered by the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF). The DIF’s total financial assets currently amount to EUR 98.4 million compared to total insured deposits of EUR 5.4 billion. The funding capacity of the DIF in case of a systemic crisis is limited, and no government contingency funding lines of credit are in place. The DIF is prohibited from using its funds for bank resolution actions like mergers or sale of selected liabilities and assets. Lastly, a new Banking Stability law, outlining the legal framework for contingency measures to be activated in the event of a systemic crisis is awaiting enactment.

Main Findings

16. Since the previous FSAP, Serbia has made considerable progress towards enhanced compliance with the BCPs and with international standards. A major overhaul of the legal framework—the enactment of the new LOB in 2005—and the issuance of new regulations provided the basis for this improvement, which are reflected upgraded scores for a considerable number of BCPs. By now, Serbia is Compliant or Largely Compliant with most BCPs. Serbia is assessed “compliant” with 9 BCPs, “largely compliant” with 13, and “materially non-compliant” with 8. The assessors are of the view that the outcomes correspond to an overall “largely compliant” score.

17. While the NBS is to be lauded for its efforts, a number of challenges remain. The remaining challenges lie primarily in the areas of international cooperation and the strengthening of supervision on risk management for categories beyond credit risk. The following summarizes the main findings of the detailed assessment of compliance with the BCP.

Objectives, independence, powers, transparency and cooperation (CPI)

18. The legal framework of the NBS has benefitted from the introduction of the LOB, which envisaged enhanced legal powers and much-improved legal protection for NBS’s staff. The NBS can by now be considered functionally independent, and staffing levels seem adequate given the NBS’s current supervisory responsibilities and the state of the financial sector. Basel II implementation, the expected growth of the financial sector and its increasing complexity do however highlight the importance of capacity building, both in quantitative and qualitative terms. ln this context, it is important that sufficient priority is given to retaining experienced staff. This requires competitive compensation, training and promotion packages.

19. Although the NBS takes a proactive stance with regard to cooperation with foreign supervisors, cooperation with a number of important home supervisors is awaiting formalization in the form of bilateral MOUs. The main impediment is the mandatory exchange of information between the NBS and the national tax authority, which raises confidentiality concerns on behalf of the home authorities.

Licensing and structure (CP 2-5)

20. The new Law on Banks has brought major improvements, notably with regard to the licensing process and the legal framework for transfer of significant ownership. The licensing process is now split up in two stages and the NBS has the authority to withdraw a bank’s license in case conditions that motivated the NBS to grant the license no longer exist. Following the enactment of the new Law on Banks, threshold levels for supervisory approval for transfer of significant ownership have been lowered and are currently in line with best practices. The LOB spells out clear limits as to maximum investments that banks are allowed to undertake. A body of criteria on the basis of which proposed acquisitions of banks are assessed is in place, but the framework does not explicitly address the acquisition of non-bank financial institutions.

Prudential regulation and requirements (CPs 6-18)

21. The capital adequacy framework is conservative by regional standards and is broadly aligned with international sound practice. It seems adequate given the current structure of the Serbian banking sector and the nature of its operations. There is however a need to further to upgrade the regulatory framework beyond credit risk. The NBS has started issuing newregulations, which is clearly bearing fruit in some areas (e.g., liquidity risk). Other areas such as market risk, countryrisk, operational risk and interest rate risk are however still in need of an equivalent upgrading, although new regulation is being prepared as part of Basel II preparations. Even though these risk categories are presently of limited relevanceto the Serbian banking sector, upgrading of regulation and supervisory practices in those areas is necessary in a financial system that is likely to expand and to become increasingly complex over the next years. Basel II implementation, scheduled for 20111, also makes this an urgent issue.

22. The regulatory framework for asset classification and provisioning is clear and prudent regarding the number of overdue days. However, the qualitative elements of the framework and the practice of formulating brackets rather than minimumprovisioning levels creates differences in interpretation between banks and the NBS, with potentially far-reaching implications for provisioning levels. With regard to governance requirements enhancement of the compliance function is suggested.

Methods of ongoing banking supervision (CPs 19-21)

23. Methods and techniques for ongoing supervision appear broadly adequate given the current stage of development of the Serbian banking sector. Thanks to comprehensive reporting requirements, the NBS has ample information on all relevant aspect of the banking sector at its disposal. Through analysis of individual data and compilation of aggregate figures it has a good overview of the state of affairs at individual banks as well as the banking sector at large. For this purpose, the NBS uses a capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings and profitability, liquidity, and sensitivity to market risk (CAMEL)-based methodology, which is also put to use as a planning and prioritization tool.

24. An important challenge facing the NBS is to ensure that the emphasis in onsite supervision shifts towards more qualitative assessments. In a similar vein, the current framework could be made more forward looking, e.g. by developing a full early warning system. It is recommended that the NBS builds on the coordinated EU efforts within the framework of Basel II implementation. Furthermore, there is scope to further formalize policies and procedures with regard to analysis at the sector level. Lastly, there is scope for enhancing the quality of prudential reporting by enhancing the cooperation between the external auditors and the accounting and finance department of the NBS. Reporting requirements could be further aligned with EU practices.

Accounting and disclosure (CP 22)

25. Serbian accounting legislation has been brought in full compliance with IFRS standards. Accounts of banks are audited and certified by external auditors, who need to be recognized to this effect by the NBS. External auditors are legally obliged to notify the NBS whenever they become aware of breaches of laws or NBS regulations. There is an obligation for banks to publish qualitative and quantitative information on risk exposures and/or risk management strategy according to IFRS 7. Further enhancements can be made in order to bring the framework in full compliance with international standards stipulated in Pillar III of Basel II.

Corrective and remedial powers of supervisors (CP 23)

26. Corrective measures and sanctioning powers appear to be well-established. The NBS has a wide spectrum of corrective actions at its disposal. The framework consists of (i) written warnings; (ii) ordering letters; (iii) a formal NBS Decision to eliminate irregularities; (iv) appointment of receiver; and (v) removal of the license of the bank. The framework is in the process of being expanded, with enhanced responsibility and authority for receivers in the pipeline - including the capacity to impose a temporary moratorium. The NBS also has the authority to impose fines and it can remove and suspend members of the Board of Directors and of the Executive Board. In order to impose these measures, the NBS observes the principle of proportionality. The main priorities are the strengthening of cooperation with other involved supervisors (both domestically and internationally) and ensuring that internal procedures do not prevent the NBS from acting speedily and decisively in the face of serious irregularities.

Consolidated and cross-border banking supervision (CPs 24-25)

27. The NBS not only supervises banks, but also leasing companies, insurance companies and pension funds, and is therefore in a favorable position to conduct consolidated supervision over banking groups whose controlling entity is established in Serbia. The NBS exerts due diligence with regard to shareholder-structures over banks, their transparency and their potential impact on supervision. Serbian law requires publication of consolidated statements on the basis of standards inspired by international practice. The possibility to exclude minor entities from consolidation and the very limited impact of subsidiaries on Serbian banks somewhat limits the impact of this requirement. NBS does not systematically analyze consolidated risk position, and supervisory requirements for reporting on a consolidated basis by banks can be improved.

28. The NBS has taken a proactive stance with regard to international cooperation. It has signed a number of regional MOUs and bilateral MOUs with countries in the region, it participates in supervisory colleges and a number of joint inspections with foreign supervisors have been conducted. The main shortcoming in the area of international cooperation is that the NBS is prevented from signing MOUs with three important EU home supervisors due to its obligations on domestic information exchange with the tax authorities.

Table 1.

Summary Compliance with the BCPs-Detailed Assessments

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Aggregate: Compliant (C) - 7, Largely Compliant (LC) - 14, Materially Non-Compliant (MNC) - 9, Non-Compliant (NC) - 0, Not Applicable (N/A) - 0

Recommended Action Plan and Authorities’ Response

Recommended action plan

29. As outlined in the preceding sections, the NBS faces a number of challenges, some of which need to be addressed as a matter of high priority. This section outlines the principal areas for reform, while a more detailed recommended action plan is included in Table 2. The following three items are among the most pressing issues:

  • capacity building: although staffing levels seem broadly adequate given the current stage of financial development salary, capacity building of the Banking Supervisory Department is a priority in view of the expected further development of the financial system and -especially- Basel II implementation scheduled for 2011. Capacity building relates to increasing the headcount, but also to upgrading of supervisory skills. This will require a concerted effort to retain experienced staff. In this context, the NBS needs to pay particular attention to the competitiveness of the compensation packages, training opportunities and career prospects offered to its staff. This is necessary to avoid shortages of staff further down the road, but also to allow for a shift towards risk-based supervision under Basel II.

  • problem assets, provisions and reserves: the present divergences between NBS’ and banks’ assessment of asset classifications and the corresponding provisioning levels illustrates the need to significantly streamline the regulation. The qualitative elements of the framework and the practice of formulating brackets rather than minimum provisioning levels creates differences in interpretation between banks and the NBS, with potentially far-reaching implications for provisioning levels. It is therefore recommended that the NBS considers establishing a more precise set of criteria for loan classification and provisioning that is clear, transparent and acceptable to both banks and supervisors.

  • home host relationships: given the significant participation of EU-banking groups in Serbia, it is essential that the NBS clears the remaining hurdles for concluding the remaining MOU agreements. It is therefore recommended that the present obligations to exchange information with the domestic tax authorities is reconsidered as a matter of priority.

30. In the medium term, the following remedial measures are suggested to the NBS:

  • risk management regulations: it is recommended that the NBS issues regulation on risk management categories other than credit risk and (more recently) liquidity risk. Although these risk categories are not of great significance within the Serbian banking sector as of today, the NBS should provide the regulatory basis for further development of the sector and its activities. New regulation in the area of market risk, country risk operational risk and interest rate risk is currently under preparation. The NBS should build as much as possible on EU regulation and Basel guidance.

  • supervisory approach and techniques: NBS’s onsite banking department faces the challenge of shifting towards a more risk-based approach, with greater reliance on qualitative assessments. Rather than checking whether policies and procedures are in place, supervision needs to assess whether risk management arrangements are adequate given the overall characteristics (size, complexity, risk profile) of the respective financial institution. This requires further development of the NBS’s tools and manuals and an upgrading of supervisory skills to ensure that staff is capable of conducting risk-based supervision. Due to the significant presence of EU banking groups alignment with EU best practice is recommended.

  • consolidated supervision: although the NBS conducts supervision on a consolidated basis, it needs to develop a framework for prudential reporting on a consolidated basis. It can take reference with EU-developments in this respect.

  • reporting accounting and disclosure: the NBS should consult with accounting and auditing associations to develop a legal framework for disclosure and conduct of external audits that is in line with EU best practice. In the same effort, NBS should seek to enhance enhanced cooperation with external auditors in order to ensure a more systematic certification of prudential reports, thereby increasing the auditors’ contribution to supervision.

Table 2.

Recommended action plan to improve compliance with the BCPs

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Authorities’ response

31. The following response was received from the NBS: “The National Bank of Serbia appreciates the recommendations, considers them as very valuable and, in general, in line with our own assessment and priorities for the forthcoming years.

This is particularly the case with regards to necessity to further upgrade supervisory skills in terms of number of supervisors and their expertise, as well as to provide for adequate framework for retaining experienced staff. Moreover, we fully recognize that risk management regulations, as well as internal supervisory tools and manuals, need to be additionally improved in order to cover all types of risk in more details. We are fully devoted to aligning both regulation and supervisory practices with internationally recognized best practices in line with strategic orientation of the Republic of Serbia to integration in EU.

With that regards, during the year 2007 the National Bank of Serbia adopted the Basel II Implementation Strategy and Action Plan and this project addresses most of the shortcomings identified in the assessment. As it has done so far, the National Bank of Serbia in this process upholds to principles of full transparency and communication with the industry.

Finally, we would like to emphasize following:

  • We are closely observing the most recent developments and changes in the international standards and principles, triggered by the recent financial crisis, and we are aligning our plans and actions with them.

  • The priorities in developing regulations and supervisory tools for risk management categories are based on the assessment of their materiality for Serbian banking sector.

  • Recognizing the significance of adequate home-host cooperation, the National Bank of Serbia is participating in all initiatives from the host supervisors, and continuously initiates communication and information sharing. However, this is a two way process and adequate improvement in this area is subject to effort on both sides.”

II. Detailed Assessment

Table 3

Detailed Assessment of Compliance with the Basel Core Principles

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Table 4

Regional Comparison of Capital Adequacy Requirements

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Table.5

Regional Comparison of Loan Classification Rules

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1

The NBS is currently reviewing the possibility to push back Basel II implementation due to the changes in the international environment and legislation.

2

CAR in Croatia is expressed as capital/(risk-weighted assets + foreign currency exposure).

3

Requirements today only ensure three board members to have knowledge or experience in finance.

4

Essentially the assessment whether cash-flow and/or working capital are positive or negative.

5

See for the concept and its elaboration CEBS’s guidance on prudential reporting.

6

At present not all positions of portfolio managers have been assigned by lack of staff members fulfilling the experience requirements set by management for such function. In this case a deputy portfolio manager is heading the team.

7

Other supervisory staff and management have conditional access to the database; i.e., a hierarchy of access authorizations has been established in order to better ensure confidentiality of supervisory information.

8

External auditors of banks have to provide the NBS with a copy of their report and have a fiduciary duty to signal breaches of laws or prudential regulations. They do not contribute, however, to certify the prudential reports or the systems in place to generate such reports.

9

E.g., when deposit outflow turned significant during the crisis

10

E.g., limits on consumer lending

11

It shall be noted however that on the application of loan classification regulation there appears to be a rather broad divergence in interpretation by banks and supervisors impacting on the quality of reports.

12

Essentially FINREP and the core parts of COREP as recommended by CEBS.

13

Banks which could be subject to consolidated supervision have as of today very comfortable capital buffers and that the main subsidiaries (leasing companies) are under NBS’ supervision on a solo-basis.