References
Bayoumi, T. and A. Swiston, 2007, “Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries,” IMF Working Paper No. 07/182 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Bayoumi, T. and A. Swiston , 2008, “Spillovers Across NAFTA,” IMF Working Paper No. 08/3 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
International Monetary Fund, 2008a, “Can Asia Decouple? Investigating Spillovers from the United States to Asia,” Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, Chapter 2 (Washington: April).
International Monetary Fund, 2007, World Economic Outlook (Washington: April).
Kanda, D., 2008, “Spillovers to Ireland,” IMF Working Paper No.08/2 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Appendices
Graph1a. Orthogonalized Impulse Responses (1996q1-2008q4)
Graph1b. Orthogonalized Cumulative Impulse Responses (1996q1-2008q4)
In order of importance, these countries are France, Italy, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, and Austria. Real GDP of each country is weighted by its share in total Tunisian exports of goods. Exports of Tunisian goods to these countries represented 73 percent of total exports of goods in 2008.
Textile, mechanical, and electrical were the most affected sectors.
Tunisia’s capital account is only partially opened, it has avoided borrowing from international capital markets since August 2007, and foreign participation in the Tunis stock exchange is mainly strategic and stable (see Text Box 1 of the staff report for the 2009 Article IV consultation).
In particular, FDI in the energy sector increased significantly.
Potential output is estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter.
Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from 1988 to 1992.
The April 2002 terrorist attack in Djerba also hit the economy with tourists arrivals and tourism nights dropping by 6 percent and 22 percent respectively in 2002. Tourism receipts fell by 13.5 percent.
We consider year-on-year growth in real GDP excluding agriculture, which also removes seasonal effects. Both Akaike and Schwarz criteria suggest that two lags are sufficient to capture the dynamics of the variables.
The elasticity remains unchanged at 0.9 across samples (1998q1-2008q4, 2001q1-2008q4) after the AAEU. However, when using a larger sample covering also the period before the AAEU (1993q1-2008q4), the elasticity falls to about 0.7 percent.
The VAR was augmented with the relative price of oil deflated by the US CPI. Results are available upon request.
This approach is based on the assumption that the transmission channels introduced in the augmented VAR are mainly a function of foreign factors with no contemporaneous correlation with home-country factors.
Due to data limitations, we use the volume of total exports.
A quarterly series was constructed for observations prior to 2004. Full results are available upon request.
This may also reflect difficulties in constructing a quarterly series for FDI, which is available only annually.
