Abstract
The staff report for Bolivia’s 2009 Article IV Consultation describes economic developments and policies. The impact of the global recession on Bolivia has been milder than in other countries in the region. Lower commodity exports and remittances have resulted in a sharp narrowing of the external current account surplus. The financial system has been barely affected by the global crisis owing to its limited integration with international capital markets. As the economy gathers momentum, a tighter monetary policy is needed to reduce the risks of excessive credit creation, foreign-exchange pressures, and a pick-up in inflation.
Following MDRI debt relief, Bolivia’s public debt sustainability has continued to improve as a result of overall fiscal surpluses, and the risk of debt distress is low. Debt ratios continue to display ample margins with respect to risk thresholds and are expected to decline further under the baseline scenario. Debt service is projected to remain low, reflecting predominantly long maturities of remaining stocks of both domestic and foreign debt. The path of debt ratios would deteriorate somewhat under standard stress tests, but would remain within manageable bounds over the medium- and long run.
Background
1. Bolivia’s gross public debt (domestic and external) has fallen significantly over the last several years, benefiting from the MDRI and fiscal surpluses. Between 2004 and 2008, gross debt has fallen by 50 percentage points of GDP to 38 percent of GDP in 2008. While multilateral external debt has fallen sharply, bilateral external debt has increased, driven by higher lending from South American countries, mainly Venezuela.
2. Bolivia’s changing debt structure and the accumulation of significant deposits have further reduced debt vulnerabilities. Since 2005, average maturities have been successfully extended and foreign currency exposure has been reduced. Moreover, with the accumulation of deposits of the non-financial public sector in the financial system—amounting to about 21 percent of GDP at present—the solvency of the public sector measured by the net public debt (i.e., gross debt minus those deposits) has improved even more significantly. On account of declining gross debt, net debt ratios would reach very low levels during the projection period.
Baseline Scenario
3. The main assumptions of the baseline scenario for the period 2009–29 are:
Average annual real GDP growth: 4 percent until 2029. Potential growth is subject to significant upside risks, as discussed in Box 7 of the Staff Report.
Average deflator inflation: 2.4 percent per year on average until 2014, in line with the recent medium-term staff projections, and would increase to 3.5 percent over the long term.
Export and import growth: in line with the medium-term staff projections and the assumption of stable import and export ratios to GDP over the long term.
Financing strategy: commercial debt is expected to remain nil, with CAF expected to remain as the main source of financing. Despite the overall balanced fiscal position, net external financing flows are expected to be positive until 2014. Likewise, complex intergovernmental fiscal relations may require some additional domestic financing. The excess funds at the level of the non-financial sector will continue to be accumulated as deposits.
Average concessionality of the public sector borrowing: projected to evolve, in the medium-term, based on projected disbursements of official loans.
Bolivia’s public and external debt is expected to remain sustainable throughout the projection period, and the risk of debt distress is low. Bolivia is classified as a medium performer in terms of its policy and institutional capacity, measured by the three-year average of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) scores. All the debt burden indicators for Bolivia are well below the specific indicative thresholds for medium performers. Hence, Bolivia’s risk of debt distress is low—an assessment that would hold even under significant stress tests. After a projected small deficit in 2010, the fiscal position would return to small surpluses in 2011–2014, with an average overall surplus of about 0.4 percent of GDP, and would remain at this level throughout the projection period. Under the baseline scenario, Bolivia’s indebtedness and debt service levels would remain very manageable. Specifically, the gross non-financial sector public debt-to-GDP ratio—39 percent in 2009—is projected to decline gradually to 34 percent by 2014, and to 14 percent in 2029. A temporary increase in 2009 is due to net external financing and additional domestic bond issuance despite an overall surplus. The total stock of external debt (public and private) is projected to fall to about 22 percent of GDP by 2014, and to stabilize around 9 percent of GDP by 2029.
Indicative Policy-Dependent Debt Thresholds for Medium Performers
Indicative Policy-Dependent Debt Thresholds for Medium Performers
| PV of debt, percent of | Debt service, percent of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | GDP | Revenue | Exports | Revenue | |
| Bolivia, 2009 | 46 | 14 | 44 | 5 | 5 |
| Indicative thresholds | 150 | 40 | 250 | 20 | 30 |
Indicative Policy-Dependent Debt Thresholds for Medium Performers
| PV of debt, percent of | Debt service, percent of | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | GDP | Revenue | Exports | Revenue | |
| Bolivia, 2009 | 46 | 14 | 44 | 5 | 5 |
| Indicative thresholds | 150 | 40 | 250 | 20 | 30 |
Stress Tests
4. inability of Bolivia’s public and external indebtedness is resilient to a series of shocks. Under the most extreme stress test to external debt—a combined shock to debt concessionality, GDP growth, export growth, and external inflation—the ratio of the NPV of debt to GDP deteriorates somewhat and eventually returns to a downward trajectory. In all cases, it would remain well below risky levels. Flow indicators also remain manageable under all stress tests. For public debt, the biggest risk stems from a temporary or permanently lower GDP growth, however, tests indicate that ratios remain within manageable levels.
Bolivia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2006-2029
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Non-financial public sector gross debt.
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Bolivia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2006-2029
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Average | Standard Deviation | Estimate | Projections | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2009-14 Average | 2019 | 2029 | 2015-29 Average | ||||||
| Public sector debt 1/ | 55.2 | 40.9 | 37.5 | 39.4 | 37.4 | 36.1 | 35.1 | 34.4 | 33.5 | 24.3 | 14.2 | |||||||
| o/w foreign-currency denominated | 37.4 | 25.0 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 21.3 | 21.0 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 15.3 | 9.0 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | -25.1 | -14.3 | -3.5 | 1.9 | -2.0 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -1.4 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | -20.0 | -11.0 | -10.9 | -0.8 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -1.4 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | -7.0 | -5.1 | -6.4 | -0.1 | 5.4 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -1.9 | -1.7 | -1.8 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 34.3 | 34.4 | 38.9 | 32.5 | 34.3 | 34.7 | 35.1 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 35.6 | 32.3 | |||||||
| of which: grants | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 27.3 | 29.3 | 32.5 | 29.8 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.6 | 31.7 | 31.6 | 33.7 | 30.6 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | -10.6 | -4.9 | -5.6 | 1.8 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | -4.9 | -1.8 | -2.1 | 1.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from average real interest rate | -1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from real GDP growth | -3.7 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.6 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | -5.6 | -3.0 | -3.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | -2.4 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | -2.4 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | -5.2 | -3.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | ||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | 29.9 | 26.5 | 36.3 | 39.5 | 39.4 | 39.2 | 39.1 | 39.4 | 39.4 | 34.3 | 20.6 | |||||||
| o/w foreign-currency denominated | 12.1 | 10.5 | 20.4 | 22.2 | 23.3 | 24.1 | 24.8 | 25.9 | 26.7 | 25.3 | 15.4 | |||||||
| o/w external | … | … | 11.6 | 13.9 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 18.2 | 19.6 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 13.0 | |||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 2/ | 5.6 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | 87.1 | 76.9 | 93.3 | 121.4 | 114.9 | 112.9 | 111.4 | 115.7 | 116.0 | 96.5 | 63.7 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 92.1 | 80.8 | 96.4 | 125.3 | 118.7 | 116.6 | 115.0 | 119.5 | 119.9 | 99.9 | 66.2 | |||||||
| o/w external 3/ | … | … | 30.9 | 44.1 | 47.2 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 59.6 | 63.4 | 61.7 | 41.9 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/ | 22.4 | 35.3 | 21.9 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 11.7 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/ | 23.6 | 37.0 | 22.6 | 15.2 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 18.1 | 9.2 | -2.9 | -4.6 | 0.1 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.5 | 0.4 | -0.2 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 3.5 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 7.1 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | -6.8 | 0.0 | -2.7 | -2.0 | 2.9 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | -10.0 | -8.3 | -14.5 | -4.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 13.7 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | -1.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.3 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 10.8 | … | |||
Non-financial public sector gross debt.
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Bolivia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2006-2029
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Average | Standard Deviation | Estimate | Projections | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2009-14 Average | 2019 | 2029 | 2015-29 Average | ||||||
| Public sector debt 1/ | 55.2 | 40.9 | 37.5 | 39.4 | 37.4 | 36.1 | 35.1 | 34.4 | 33.5 | 24.3 | 14.2 | |||||||
| o/w foreign-currency denominated | 37.4 | 25.0 | 21.6 | 22.1 | 21.3 | 21.0 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.8 | 15.3 | 9.0 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | -25.1 | -14.3 | -3.5 | 1.9 | -2.0 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -2.2 | -1.4 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | -20.0 | -11.0 | -10.9 | -0.8 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -1.4 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | -7.0 | -5.1 | -6.4 | -0.1 | 5.4 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -1.9 | -1.7 | -1.8 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 34.3 | 34.4 | 38.9 | 32.5 | 34.3 | 34.7 | 35.1 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 35.6 | 32.3 | |||||||
| of which: grants | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 27.3 | 29.3 | 32.5 | 29.8 | 32.4 | 32.4 | 32.6 | 31.7 | 31.6 | 33.7 | 30.6 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | -10.6 | -4.9 | -5.6 | 1.8 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | -4.9 | -1.8 | -2.1 | 1.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from average real interest rate | -1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | |||||||
| of which: contribution from real GDP growth | -3.7 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.6 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | -5.6 | -3.0 | -3.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | -2.4 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | -2.4 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | -5.2 | -3.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other Sustainability Indicators | ||||||||||||||||||
| PV of public sector debt | 29.9 | 26.5 | 36.3 | 39.5 | 39.4 | 39.2 | 39.1 | 39.4 | 39.4 | 34.3 | 20.6 | |||||||
| o/w foreign-currency denominated | 12.1 | 10.5 | 20.4 | 22.2 | 23.3 | 24.1 | 24.8 | 25.9 | 26.7 | 25.3 | 15.4 | |||||||
| o/w external | … | … | 11.6 | 13.9 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 18.2 | 19.6 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 13.0 | |||||||
| PV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 2/ | 5.6 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | 87.1 | 76.9 | 93.3 | 121.4 | 114.9 | 112.9 | 111.4 | 115.7 | 116.0 | 96.5 | 63.7 | |||||||
| PV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 92.1 | 80.8 | 96.4 | 125.3 | 118.7 | 116.6 | 115.0 | 119.5 | 119.9 | 99.9 | 66.2 | |||||||
| o/w external 3/ | … | … | 30.9 | 44.1 | 47.2 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 59.6 | 63.4 | 61.7 | 41.9 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 4/ | 22.4 | 35.3 | 21.9 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 11.7 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 4/ | 23.6 | 37.0 | 22.6 | 15.2 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 18.1 | 9.2 | -2.9 | -4.6 | 0.1 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.5 | 0.4 | -0.2 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 3.5 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 7.1 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic debt (in percent) | -6.8 | 0.0 | -2.7 | -2.0 | 2.9 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | -10.0 | -8.3 | -14.5 | -4.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 13.7 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | -1.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.3 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 10.8 | … | |||
Non-financial public sector gross debt.
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2009-2029
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2009-2029
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2019 | 2029 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 34 | 21 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 39 | 41 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 50 | 52 | 47 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2009 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 28 | 7 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 50 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 39 | 41 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 50 | 45 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 39 | 46 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 45 | 28 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 39 | 44 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 48 | 38 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2010 | 39 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 47 | 32 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2010 | 39 | 49 | 49 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 41 | 25 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 121 | 115 | 113 | 111 | 116 | 116 | 97 | 64 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 121 | 120 | 124 | 129 | 140 | 146 | 145 | 147 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2009 | 121 | 112 | 109 | 106 | 109 | 108 | 79 | 22 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 121 | 116 | 115 | 115 | 121 | 124 | 123 | 155 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 121 | 120 | 125 | 128 | 137 | 141 | 139 | 138 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 121 | 135 | 154 | 151 | 155 | 154 | 126 | 86 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 121 | 129 | 142 | 142 | 149 | 151 | 136 | 116 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2010 | 121 | 145 | 143 | 142 | 149 | 150 | 133 | 100 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2010 | 121 | 144 | 140 | 138 | 142 | 141 | 116 | 78 |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 17 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2009 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 17 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2010 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2010 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2009-2029
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2019 | 2029 | |
| PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 34 | 21 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 39 | 41 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 50 | 52 | 47 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2009 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 28 | 7 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 50 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 39 | 41 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 50 | 45 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 39 | 46 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 45 | 28 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 39 | 44 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 48 | 38 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2010 | 39 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 47 | 32 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2010 | 39 | 49 | 49 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 41 | 25 |
| PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 121 | 115 | 113 | 111 | 116 | 116 | 97 | 64 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 121 | 120 | 124 | 129 | 140 | 146 | 145 | 147 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2009 | 121 | 112 | 109 | 106 | 109 | 108 | 79 | 22 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 121 | 116 | 115 | 115 | 121 | 124 | 123 | 155 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 121 | 120 | 125 | 128 | 137 | 141 | 139 | 138 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 121 | 135 | 154 | 151 | 155 | 154 | 126 | 86 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 121 | 129 | 142 | 142 | 149 | 151 | 136 | 116 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2010 | 121 | 145 | 143 | 142 | 149 | 150 | 133 | 100 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2010 | 121 | 144 | 140 | 138 | 142 | 141 | 116 | 78 |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 17 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2009 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 15 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 17 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2010-2011 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2010 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2010 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of the length of the projection period.
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2006-2029 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2006-2029 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Historical Average | Standard Deviation | Projections | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2009-2014 Average | 2019 | 2029 | 2015-2029 Average | ||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 38.4 | 25.3 | 22.0 | 22.6 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 16.0 | 9.1 | |||||||
| o/w public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 28.2 | 16.1 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 16.6 | 12.4 | 7.4 | |||||||
| Change in external debt | -24.6 | -13.0 | -3.3 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | |||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | -24.3 | -19.0 | -19.3 | -7.0 | -4.6 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.7 | -3.1 | -2.1 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | -13.3 | -13.6 | -13.1 | -6.4 | 6.9 | -4.5 | -3.4 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.1 | -2.7 | ||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | -7.7 | -6.1 | -7.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | |||||||
| Exports | 37.8 | 37.3 | 41.8 | 30.1 | 31.5 | 31.8 | 31.3 | 30.9 | 30.4 | 30.5 | 30.9 | |||||||
| Imports | 30.0 | 31.2 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 31.4 | 31.9 | 31.3 | 30.9 | 30.7 | 30.9 | 31.6 | |||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | -7.1 | -9.5 | -7.7 | -6.4 | 1.6 | -5.8 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -5.4 | -5.3 | -5.4 | -4.4 | -2.9 | -4.0 | ||||
| o/w official | -2.6 | -1.7 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.3 | |||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | |||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -2.4 | -2.1 | -2.2 | -2.9 | 3.8 | -2.9 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.7 | ||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 2/ | -8.5 | -3.3 | -4.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | |||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | -8.2 | -3.6 | -3.8 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Residual (3-4) 3/ | -0.3 | 5.9 | 15.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | |||||||
| o/w exceptional financing | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| PV of external debt 4/ | … | … | 19.4 | 21.2 | 22.4 | 23.3 | 24.0 | 25.1 | 26.0 | 24.8 | 14.7 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 46.3 | 70.3 | 71.1 | 73.3 | 76.9 | 81.3 | 85.4 | 81.1 | 47.7 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 11.6 | 13.9 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 18.2 | 19.6 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 13.0 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 27.8 | 46.1 | 49.8 | 53.6 | 58.1 | 63.5 | 68.6 | 69.5 | 42.2 | |||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 30.9 | 44.1 | 47.2 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 59.6 | 63.4 | 61.7 | 41.9 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 23.5 | 34.1 | 19.0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 5.5 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 16.4 | 28.0 | 16.9 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 4.6 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 19.1 | 31.8 | 18.8 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | |||||||
| Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars) | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 11.3 | -0.5 | -9.8 | -5.1 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -1.9 | -1.6 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 14.9 | 10.3 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 5/ | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.6 | |||
| Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 32.7 | 13.9 | 40.1 | 18.6 | 14.8 | -23.6 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | |||
| Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 20.7 | 19.8 | 37.1 | 10.8 | 14.5 | -10.0 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | |||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.3 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 11.8 | |||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 32.5 | 32.7 | 37.7 | 31.5 | 33.2 | 33.6 | 34.0 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 34.4 | 31.1 | 33.4 | ||||||
| Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) 7/ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | |||||||
| o/w Grants | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | |||||||
| o/w Concessional loans | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 28.3 | 29.5 | 33.7 | 36.6 | 35.4 | 35.5 | 42.4 | 56.1 | 46.4 | ||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) | 11.5 | 13.3 | 16.6 | 17.6 | 19.1 | 20.5 | 21.9 | 23.4 | 25.0 | 36.2 | 75.9 | |||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 20.4 | 15.3 | 24.9 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | |||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 9.9 | |||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | ||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2006-2029 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Actual | Historical Average | Standard Deviation | Projections | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2009-2014 Average | 2019 | 2029 | 2015-2029 Average | ||||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 38.4 | 25.3 | 22.0 | 22.6 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 16.0 | 9.1 | |||||||
| o/w public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 28.2 | 16.1 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 16.6 | 12.4 | 7.4 | |||||||
| Change in external debt | -24.6 | -13.0 | -3.3 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | |||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | -24.3 | -19.0 | -19.3 | -7.0 | -4.6 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.7 | -3.1 | -2.1 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | -13.3 | -13.6 | -13.1 | -6.4 | 6.9 | -4.5 | -3.4 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.1 | -2.7 | ||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | -7.7 | -6.1 | -7.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | |||||||
| Exports | 37.8 | 37.3 | 41.8 | 30.1 | 31.5 | 31.8 | 31.3 | 30.9 | 30.4 | 30.5 | 30.9 | |||||||
| Imports | 30.0 | 31.2 | 34.2 | 29.0 | 31.4 | 31.9 | 31.3 | 30.9 | 30.7 | 30.9 | 31.6 | |||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | -7.1 | -9.5 | -7.7 | -6.4 | 1.6 | -5.8 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -5.4 | -5.3 | -5.4 | -4.4 | -2.9 | -4.0 | ||||
| o/w official | -2.6 | -1.7 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.3 | |||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | |||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -2.4 | -2.1 | -2.2 | -2.9 | 3.8 | -2.9 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.7 | ||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 2/ | -8.5 | -3.3 | -4.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | |||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | -8.2 | -3.6 | -3.8 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Residual (3-4) 3/ | -0.3 | 5.9 | 15.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | |||||||
| o/w exceptional financing | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| PV of external debt 4/ | … | … | 19.4 | 21.2 | 22.4 | 23.3 | 24.0 | 25.1 | 26.0 | 24.8 | 14.7 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 46.3 | 70.3 | 71.1 | 73.3 | 76.9 | 81.3 | 85.4 | 81.1 | 47.7 | |||||||
| PV of PPG external debt | … | … | 11.6 | 13.9 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 18.2 | 19.6 | 20.8 | 21.2 | 13.0 | |||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 27.8 | 46.1 | 49.8 | 53.6 | 58.1 | 63.5 | 68.6 | 69.5 | 42.2 | |||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 30.9 | 44.1 | 47.2 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 59.6 | 63.4 | 61.7 | 41.9 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 23.5 | 34.1 | 19.0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 5.5 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 16.4 | 28.0 | 16.9 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 4.6 | |||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 19.1 | 31.8 | 18.8 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | |||||||
| Total gross financing need (Billions of U.S. dollars) | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 11.3 | -0.5 | -9.8 | -5.1 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -1.9 | -1.6 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 14.9 | 10.3 | 17.7 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 5/ | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.6 | |||
| Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 32.7 | 13.9 | 40.1 | 18.6 | 14.8 | -23.6 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | |||
| Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 20.7 | 19.8 | 37.1 | 10.8 | 14.5 | -10.0 | 17.3 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | |||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 8.3 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 11.8 | |||
| Government revenues (excluding grants, in percent of GDP) | 32.5 | 32.7 | 37.7 | 31.5 | 33.2 | 33.6 | 34.0 | 32.9 | 32.9 | 34.4 | 31.1 | 33.4 | ||||||
| Aid flows (in Billions of US dollars) 7/ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | |||||||
| o/w Grants | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | |||||||
| o/w Concessional loans | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 28.3 | 29.5 | 33.7 | 36.6 | 35.4 | 35.5 | 42.4 | 56.1 | 46.4 | ||||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Billions of US dollars) | 11.5 | 13.3 | 16.6 | 17.6 | 19.1 | 20.5 | 21.9 | 23.4 | 25.0 | 36.2 | 75.9 | |||||||
| Nominal dollar GDP growth | 20.4 | 15.3 | 24.9 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | |||||
| PV of PPG external debt (in Billions of US dollars) | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 9.9 | |||||||||
| (PVt-PVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | ||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that PV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the PV of new debt).
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2009-2029
(In percent)
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2009-2029
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2019 | 2029 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 13 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | -3 | -21 | -50 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 22 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 12 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 14 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 13 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 13 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 14 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 13 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 14 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 13 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 14 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 17 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 46 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 64 | 69 | 69 | 42 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 46 | 35 | 23 | 11 | 1 | -10 | -70 | -161 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 46 | 53 | 59 | 67 | 75 | 82 | 91 | 70 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 38 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 46 | 62 | 81 | 86 | 91 | 96 | 89 | 47 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 38 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 46 | 59 | 70 | 73 | 78 | 82 | 77 | 41 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 46 | 54 | 56 | 60 | 65 | 69 | 68 | 39 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 46 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 38 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 44 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 60 | 63 | 62 | 42 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 44 | 33 | 21 | 10 | 1 | -9 | -62 | -160 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 44 | 50 | 56 | 61 | 70 | 76 | 81 | 69 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 55 | 61 | 64 | 61 | 40 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 44 | 54 | 68 | 69 | 75 | 78 | 69 | 41 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 44 | 50 | 56 | 59 | 65 | 69 | 66 | 43 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 44 | 56 | 66 | 68 | 73 | 76 | 68 | 41 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 44 | 52 | 57 | 59 | 65 | 69 | 64 | 41 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 44 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 82 | 86 | 82 | 54 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -9 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -9 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2009-2029
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2019 | 2029 | |
| PV of debt-to GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 13 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | -3 | -21 | -50 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 22 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 12 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 14 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 13 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 13 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 14 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 13 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 14 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 13 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 14 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 17 |
| PV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 46 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 64 | 69 | 69 | 42 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 46 | 35 | 23 | 11 | 1 | -10 | -70 | -161 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 46 | 53 | 59 | 67 | 75 | 82 | 91 | 70 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 38 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 46 | 62 | 81 | 86 | 91 | 96 | 89 | 47 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 46 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 38 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 46 | 59 | 70 | 73 | 78 | 82 | 77 | 41 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 46 | 54 | 56 | 60 | 65 | 69 | 68 | 39 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 46 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 62 | 66 | 66 | 38 |
| PV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 44 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 60 | 63 | 62 | 42 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 44 | 33 | 21 | 10 | 1 | -9 | -62 | -160 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 44 | 50 | 56 | 61 | 70 | 76 | 81 | 69 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 55 | 61 | 64 | 61 | 40 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 44 | 54 | 68 | 69 | 75 | 78 | 69 | 41 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 44 | 50 | 56 | 59 | 65 | 69 | 66 | 43 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 44 | 56 | 66 | 68 | 73 | 76 | 68 | 41 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 44 | 52 | 57 | 59 | 65 | 69 | 64 | 41 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 44 | 66 | 70 | 74 | 82 | 86 | 82 | 54 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -9 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2009-2029 1/ | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -9 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2009-2029 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 3/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2010-2011 4/ | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2010 5/ | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Bolivia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2009-2029 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 027; 10.5089/9781451805864.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2019.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.Bolivia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2009-2029 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 027; 10.5089/9781451805864.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2019.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.Bolivia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2009-2029 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 027; 10.5089/9781451805864.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2019.2/ Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Bolivia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternatives Scenarios, 2009-2029 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 027; 10.5089/9781451805864.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2019. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Terms shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockBolivia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternatives Scenarios, 2009-2029 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 027; 10.5089/9781451805864.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2019. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Terms shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockBolivia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt under Alternatives Scenarios, 2009-2029 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2010, 027; 10.5089/9781451805864.002.A002
Sources: Country authorities; and staff estimates and projections.1/ The most extreme stress test is the test that yields the highest ratio in 2019. In figure b. it corresponds to a One-time depreciation shock; in c. to a Terms shock; in d. to a One-time depreciation shock; in e. to a Exports shock and in figure f. to a One-time depreciation shockSince Bolivia is an IDA blend country, this DSA was not conducted jointly with the World Bank.
