First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Modification of Performance Criterion and Consultation Clause—Informational Annex
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This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Guatemala. The fiscal deficit is increasing owing to a sharp decline in revenues, associated with the contraction in imports and domestic demand. The policy interest rate has been cut. All quantitative performance criteria through June have been met. Inflation has fallen below the consultation band set in the program, triggering a consultation with IMF staff. Fiscal policy needs to continue striking a balance between avoiding a procyclical stance and maintaining debt sustainability.

Abstract

This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Guatemala. The fiscal deficit is increasing owing to a sharp decline in revenues, associated with the contraction in imports and domestic demand. The policy interest rate has been cut. All quantitative performance criteria through June have been met. Inflation has fallen below the consultation band set in the program, triggering a consultation with IMF staff. Fiscal policy needs to continue striking a balance between avoiding a procyclical stance and maintaining debt sustainability.

Appendix I. Guatemala—Fund Relations

(As of July 31, 2009)

I. Membership Status: Joined: December 28, 1945; Article VIII

II.General Resources Account:

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III.SDR Department:

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IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

V. Latest Financial Arrangements:

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VI. Projected Obligations to the Fund (SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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VII. Safeguards Assessment

Under the Fund’s safeguards assessment policy, the Bank of Guatemala was subject to an assessment with respect to the Stand-By Arrangement, which was approved on April 22, 2009 (EBS/09/49). The assessment, which was completed in September 2009, found that the Bank of Guatemala has strengthened safeguards in the areas of financial reporting transparency and the management of foreign exchange reserves. Recommendations were made to further strengthen the bank’s governance and independence.

VIII. Exchange Rate Arrangements

Since March 1994, Guatemala has had an arrangement based on an interbank foreign exchange market in which authorized financial institutions buy and sell foreign exchange at market-determined rates. Financial institutions authorized to operate in the foreign exchange market include commercial banks, finance companies, and exchange houses. The exchange regime is classified as “Floating.” As of August 19, 2009, the reference exchange rate was Q8.26 per U.S. dollar.

IX. Last Article IV Consultation

The last Article IV consultation was concluded by the Executive Board on May 19, 2008. The next Article IV consultation is scheduled for November 2009.

X. FSAP Participation

An FSAP was conducted on July 3–7, 2000 and on September 11–23, 2000, and the Financial System Stability Assessment was discussed by the Executive Board on May 14, 2001 at the time of the 2001 Article IV consultation. An FSAP update was undertaken during October 27–November 10, 2005.

XI. Technical Assistance

Technical assistance provided in recent years has covered tax policy administration, expenditure management, inflation targeting, financial sector regulation and supervision, and statistics. Since 2004, FAD has provided assistance on tax policy, expenditure management and tax administration in various missions. STA has also assisted in completing General Data Dissemination System metadata for the financial and external sector, and in improving statistics on the balance of payments, the national accounts, and government financial statistics. In July 2009, a STA mission provided technical assistance on quarterly national accounts. MCM has provided assistance on inflation targeting, monitoring the banking system, and improving banking sector regulation and supervision. During March 2008–May 2009, three advisory missions assisted in designing an action plan for the development of secondary markets for private securities and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of monetary policy.

A regional Technical Assistance Center for Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPTAC-DR), started operations in June 2009. CAPTAC-DR, which is based in Guatemala City, will deliver capacity-building and training to seven countries in the region, supporting the implementation of the countries’ development strategies in IMF areas of expertise. The center will also provide technical assistance (TA) at the regional and national level in support of ongoing economic and financial integration efforts in the region. TA is already being provided to Guatemala on revenue administration as well as on issues related to the planned customs union between Guatemala and El Salvador.

XII. Resident Representative

The Resident Representative office in Guatemala was opened in 2003. In August 2009, Mr. Fernando Delgado was appointed Regional Resident Representative for Central America, based in Guatemala.

Appendix II. Guatemala—Relations with the World Bank

(As of July 28, 2009)

The Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy for Guatemala. The Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for the period FY09–12 was developed in close collaboration with the government and wide consultation with country stakeholders. The CPS was discussed by the Bank’s Executive Board in September 2008 and supports growth and poverty reduction strategies within the government’s development program, Plan de la Esperanza. The CPS supports key elements of Guatemala’s program, including a new conditional cash transfer program, policies to support natural disaster risk mitigation, fiscal reform, rural infrastructure development, and other poverty reduction efforts.

IBRD Flows and Total Debt Outstanding. IBRD disbursements to Guatemala have increased in recent years, rising from an annual average of about US$90 million during 2003–06 to an average of some US$160 million during 2007–09. Guatemala’s total debt outstanding to the IBRD was US$979.5 million as of end-July 2009.

The current portfolio. As of July 28, 2009, the IBRD active portfolio consisted of 7 projects with a total commitment of US$402.3 million and net disbursements of US$66.2 million. These comprise six investment loans and one Catastrophic Development Policy Loan with Deferred Draw-down Option (CAT DPL-DDO).

In addition, the Board of Directors approved the Second Programmatic Fiscal and Institutional Development Policy Loan (DPL) for $350 million on July 28, 2009. This DPL is part of a series developed within Guatemala’s medium-term development plan and is designed to: (i) enhance macroeconomic stability, governance, and transparency; (ii) expand opportunities for vulnerable groups through improved targeting of social programs; and (iii) promote sustainable growth and productivity for better jobs.

IBRD Flows (US$ millions)

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Through July 31, 2009.

IBRD Operations by Sector, in US$ millions, as of July 28, 2009

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Appendix III. Guatemala—Relations with the Inter-American Development Bank

(As of August 2009)

A. Recent Projects and Objectives

1. On June 30, 2009, the IDB approved its country strategy for Guatemala for 2008– 2011. The country strategy was the product of dialogue with the current Guatemalan administration. It will focus on supporting the following government goals: (i) reducing chronic malnutrition; (ii) reducing the intergenerational transmission of poverty; (iii) upgrading and maintaining production infrastructure; and (iv) achieving the revenue collection targets established in the Peace Accords.

2. As of August 7, 2009, the IDB portfolio of approved sovereign guaranteed investment and policy-based loans under execution amounted to US$1,466 million, with an undisbursed balance of US$888.5 million. The existing portfolio focuses on: (i) supporting the reform and modernization of the State (including a policy-based loan targeted to support the government’s efforts in modernizing its fiscal system); (ii) strengthening the country’s social programs (including a policy-based loan directed to support the Conditional Cash Transfer program); and (iii) improving productive infrastructure (especially in the rural areas and in the water and sanitation sector).

3. In the private sector, over the last two years, the IDB has approved one lending facility for the financial sector (US$45 million) and two credit line operations for trade financing (US$75 million).

4. The pipeline includes projects in the areas of health and nutrition and water and sanitation. In addition, the Bank continues to support nonfinancial activities, including assistance in the area of fiscal reform, health and nutrition, education, water and sanitation, and public sector strengthening.

B. IDB Loan Disbursements 2005–2009

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Source: IDB Financial Department

Projections

C. IDB Portfolio in Guatemala as of August 2009

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

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Note: Sovereign guaranteed and nonsovereign guaranteed programs. Excluding regional programs.

Appendix IV. Guatemala—Statistical Issues

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Guatemala: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of August 20, 2009)

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Any reserve assets that are pledged or otherwise encumbered should be specified separately. Also, data should comprise short-term liabilities linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means as well as the notional values of financial derivatives to pay and to receive foreign currency, including those linked to a foreign currency but settled by other means.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); and not available (NA).

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC, (published on June 10, 2005 and based on the findings of the mission that took place during October 14–28, 2004) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O); largely observed (LO); largely not observed (LNO); not observed (NO); and not available (NA).

Same as footnote 7, except referring to international standards concerning source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of source data, assessment, and revision studies.

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