Abstract
The global financial crisis has forced government intervention in major financial institutions in Belgium. This 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses that the boom in energy and food prices in early 2008 caused inflation to spike to well above the euro area average. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for their prompt and decisive intervention as the Belgian banking sector began to face severe pressure in September 2008. Directors have also encouraged the authorities to allow fiscal stabilizers to operate fully, and welcomed the moderate discretionary stimulus.
This supplement to the staff report for the 2008 Article IV consultation with Belgium provides an update on the staff’s revised economic outlook, recent developments in financial markets, and the 2009 budget and economic stimulus package. The information does not alter the thrust of the staff appraisal.
Summary
GDP is forecast to contract by 2.5 percent in 2009 due to deeper recessions in partner countries, a worse outcome than anticipated in the staff report. The financial sector faces increased risks related to adverse developments in central and Eastern Europe as well as legal proceedings. Reflecting the downward revision of the growth forecast, the general government deficit is now projected to widen to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent in the staff report.
Outlook
1. Staff projects the real GDP contraction to deepen to 2.5 percent in 2009, from 1.9 percent in the staff report (Table 1). The revision is driven by worse-than-anticipated growth results for the last quarter of 2008 and reflects downward revisions to the growth outlook in Belgium’s main economic partners. Consumer and business confidence further eroded in February 2009 as labor market conditions are deteriorating. In addition, significant downside risks remain, related to the international environment and contagion effects from the global financial crisis.
Belgium: Selected Economic Indicators 2005–14
Contribution to GDP growth.
Belgium: Selected Economic Indicators 2005–14
| Projection | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | ||||
| (Percentage change from the previous period; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||||||
| Real economy | |||||||||||||
| Real GDP | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||
| Private consumption | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |||
| Public consumption | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||
| Gross fixed investment | 7.3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 4.3 | -5.3 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | |||
| Business investment | 5.2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | -6.2 | -0.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | |||
| Dwellings | 10.0 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -4.1 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | |||
| Public investment | 15.5 | -10.6 | 3.4 | -2.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |||
| Stockbuilding 1/ | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Foreign balance 1/ | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | |||
| Exports, goods and services | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | -1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | |||
| Imports, goods and services | 4.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | -0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | |||
| Household saving ratio (in percent) | 12.6 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 15.7 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.1 | 17.0 | |||
| Potential output growth | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | |||
| Output gap (in percent) | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.0 | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.7 | |||
| Employment | |||||||||||||
| Unemployment rate | 8.5 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | |||
| NAIRU | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | |||
| Employment | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -1.7 | -0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | |||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Consumer prices | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
| GDP deflator | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | |||
| ULC (in whole economy) | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||
| (In percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||||||
| Public finance | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 49.3 | 48.6 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 48.7 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.3 | |||
| Expenditure | 52.0 | 48.3 | 48.4 | 49.7 | 52.1 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 52.8 | |||
| General government balance | -2.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -3.4 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.5 | |||
| Structural balance | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | |||
| Primary balance | 1.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | |||
| General government debt | 92.0 | 87.7 | 83.9 | 86.3 | 91.8 | 94.1 | 94.9 | 95.3 | 95.4 | 95.9 | |||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Trade balance | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.8 | |||
| Current account | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.2 | -2.3 | -2.4 | |||
| Terms of Trade (percent change) | -0.9 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | |||
| Exports, goods and services (volume, percent change) | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | -1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | |||
| Imports, goods and services (volume, percent change) | 4.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | -0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | |||
Contribution to GDP growth.
Belgium: Selected Economic Indicators 2005–14
| Projection | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | ||||
| (Percentage change from the previous period; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||||||
| Real economy | |||||||||||||
| Real GDP | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||
| Private consumption | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |||
| Public consumption | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||
| Gross fixed investment | 7.3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 4.3 | -5.3 | -0.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | |||
| Business investment | 5.2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | -6.2 | -0.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | |||
| Dwellings | 10.0 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -4.1 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | |||
| Public investment | 15.5 | -10.6 | 3.4 | -2.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |||
| Stockbuilding 1/ | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Foreign balance 1/ | -0.6 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | |||
| Exports, goods and services | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | -1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | |||
| Imports, goods and services | 4.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | -0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | |||
| Household saving ratio (in percent) | 12.6 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 15.7 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.1 | 17.0 | |||
| Potential output growth | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | |||
| Output gap (in percent) | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.0 | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.7 | |||
| Employment | |||||||||||||
| Unemployment rate | 8.5 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | |||
| NAIRU | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | |||
| Employment | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -1.7 | -0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | |||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Consumer prices | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||
| GDP deflator | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | |||
| ULC (in whole economy) | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||
| (In percent of GDP; unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||||||
| Public finance | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 49.3 | 48.6 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 48.7 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.3 | |||
| Expenditure | 52.0 | 48.3 | 48.4 | 49.7 | 52.1 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 52.8 | |||
| General government balance | -2.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -3.4 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.5 | |||
| Structural balance | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | |||
| Primary balance | 1.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | |||
| General government debt | 92.0 | 87.7 | 83.9 | 86.3 | 91.8 | 94.1 | 94.9 | 95.3 | 95.4 | 95.9 | |||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Trade balance | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.8 | |||
| Current account | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.2 | -2.3 | -2.4 | |||
| Terms of Trade (percent change) | -0.9 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | |||
| Exports, goods and services (volume, percent change) | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | -1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | |||
| Imports, goods and services (volume, percent change) | 4.9 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | -0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | |||
Contribution to GDP growth.
Financial sector
2. The need for additional interventions in the financial sector cannot be ruled out. The shareholders’ rejection of the sale of Fortis Bank Belgium to BNP-Paribas has heightened uncertainties about the future of the group, and has exposed the budget and Belgium’s sovereign rating to additional risk. The recent sharp drop in KBC’s share price and jump in its credit default spread manifest market uneasiness about the group’s core capital ratio and its exposure to emerging Europe where vulnerabilities have risen. The liquidity position of the third major Belgian bankassurance group, Dexia, remains severely mismatched, and the group might need to shore up its capital. As the need for additional government support to these and other financial institutions cannot be excluded, establishing a broader intervention framework remains a priority.
2009 budget and stimulus plan
The government has updated its fiscal projections to take into account the deterioration in the economic parameters underlying the budget and the Plan de Relance’s measures. The general government deficit is now officially projected to widen to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2009. At this stage, the government is not considering any additional measures beyond the ones contained in the 2009 budget and in the Plan de Relance, which is still being debated by parliament. The government intends to return to a medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy as soon as economic conditions allow it, and has tasked the High Finance Council with quantifying adjustment objectives.
Belgium: Fiscal Scenarios, 2004-14
(In percent of GDP, unadjusted for working days; unless otherwise indicated)
Includes the effect of the restructuring of the national railway company in 2005 as presented by Eurostat.
Excludes one-off measures including the restructuring of the national railway company in 2005.
Belgium: Fiscal Scenarios, 2004-14
(In percent of GDP, unadjusted for working days; unless otherwise indicated)
| Projection | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | ||
| Current policies (A) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 49.2 | 49.3 | 48.6 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 48.7 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.3 | |
| Expenditure | 49.5 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 48.4 | 49.7 | 52.1 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 52.8 | |
| Primary expenditure | 44.7 | 47.7 | 44.4 | 44.5 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 48.8 | 48.6 | 48.6 | |
| Interest payments | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |
| Balance 1/ | -0.3 | -2.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -3.4 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.5 | |
| Structural balance 2/ | -0.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.7 | |
| Balance change | -0.2 | -2.4 | 3.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | |
| Change in structural balance | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | |
| Primary balance | 4.5 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | |
| Structural primary balance 2/ | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | |
| Debt 1/ | 94.5 | 92.0 | 87.8 | 83.9 | 86.3 | 91.8 | 94.1 | 94.9 | 95.3 | 95.4 | 95.9 | |
| Memorandum items (in percent): | ||||||||||||
| Real primary expenditure growth 2/ | 0.2 | 8.9 | -4.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | |
| Real discretionary spending growth 2/ | -3.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | |
| Output gap | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.0 | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.7 | |
| GDP growth | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Staff-recommended scenario (B) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 49.2 | 49.3 | 48.6 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 48.7 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.3 | |
| Expenditure | 49.5 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 48.4 | 49.7 | 52.1 | 52.7 | 51.8 | 50.7 | 49.6 | 48.7 | |
| Primary expenditure | 44.7 | 47.7 | 44.4 | 44.5 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 48.7 | 47.7 | 46.7 | 45.7 | 44.8 | |
| Interest payments | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | |
| Balance 1/ | -0.3 | -2.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -3.4 | -4.1 | -3.2 | -2.2 | -1.1 | -0.4 | |
| Structural balance 2/ | -0.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | |
| Balance change | -0.2 | -2.4 | 3.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |
| Change in structural balance | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Primary balance | 4.5 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | |
| Structural primary balance 2/ | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.3 | |
| Debt 1/ | 94.5 | 92.0 | 87.8 | 83.9 | 86.3 | 90.3 | 92.3 | 91.8 | 90.1 | 87.2 | 84.0 | |
| Memorandum items (in percent): | ||||||||||||
| Real primary expenditure growth 2/ | 0.2 | 8.9 | -4.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | |
| Output gap | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.0 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -1.8 | |
| GDP growth | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | |
Includes the effect of the restructuring of the national railway company in 2005 as presented by Eurostat.
Excludes one-off measures including the restructuring of the national railway company in 2005.
Belgium: Fiscal Scenarios, 2004-14
(In percent of GDP, unadjusted for working days; unless otherwise indicated)
| Projection | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | ||
| Current policies (A) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 49.2 | 49.3 | 48.6 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 48.7 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.3 | |
| Expenditure | 49.5 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 48.4 | 49.7 | 52.1 | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.0 | 52.8 | 52.8 | |
| Primary expenditure | 44.7 | 47.7 | 44.4 | 44.5 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 48.8 | 48.6 | 48.6 | |
| Interest payments | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | |
| Balance 1/ | -0.3 | -2.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -3.4 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -4.3 | -4.5 | |
| Structural balance 2/ | -0.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.7 | |
| Balance change | -0.2 | -2.4 | 3.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | |
| Change in structural balance | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | |
| Primary balance | 4.5 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | |
| Structural primary balance 2/ | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | |
| Debt 1/ | 94.5 | 92.0 | 87.8 | 83.9 | 86.3 | 91.8 | 94.1 | 94.9 | 95.3 | 95.4 | 95.9 | |
| Memorandum items (in percent): | ||||||||||||
| Real primary expenditure growth 2/ | 0.2 | 8.9 | -4.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | |
| Real discretionary spending growth 2/ | -3.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | |
| Output gap | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.0 | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.7 | |
| GDP growth | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Staff-recommended scenario (B) | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 49.2 | 49.3 | 48.6 | 48.1 | 48.8 | 48.7 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.3 | |
| Expenditure | 49.5 | 52.0 | 48.3 | 48.4 | 49.7 | 52.1 | 52.7 | 51.8 | 50.7 | 49.6 | 48.7 | |
| Primary expenditure | 44.7 | 47.7 | 44.4 | 44.5 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 48.7 | 47.7 | 46.7 | 45.7 | 44.8 | |
| Interest payments | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | |
| Balance 1/ | -0.3 | -2.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -3.4 | -4.1 | -3.2 | -2.2 | -1.1 | -0.4 | |
| Structural balance 2/ | -0.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | |
| Balance change | -0.2 | -2.4 | 3.0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |
| Change in structural balance | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Primary balance | 4.5 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | |
| Structural primary balance 2/ | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.3 | |
| Debt 1/ | 94.5 | 92.0 | 87.8 | 83.9 | 86.3 | 90.3 | 92.3 | 91.8 | 90.1 | 87.2 | 84.0 | |
| Memorandum items (in percent): | ||||||||||||
| Real primary expenditure growth 2/ | 0.2 | 8.9 | -4.1 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | |
| Output gap | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.0 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -1.8 | |
| GDP growth | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | |
Includes the effect of the restructuring of the national railway company in 2005 as presented by Eurostat.
Excludes one-off measures including the restructuring of the national railway company in 2005.