Belize
Use of Fund Resources: Request for Emergency Assistance: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
Author:
International Monetary Fund
Search for other papers by International Monetary Fund in
Current site
Google Scholar
Close

The staff report for Belize’s use of Fund Resources and Request for Emergency Assistance is examined. Economic growth has been sustained largely by rising oil production, while inflation has remained under control. Despite rising oil production, economic growth has been low in 2007, in part because of the impact of Hurricane Dean. The authorities are confident that the banking system is stable and adequately capitalized, and largely insulated from international market turmoil.

Abstract

The staff report for Belize’s use of Fund Resources and Request for Emergency Assistance is examined. Economic growth has been sustained largely by rising oil production, while inflation has remained under control. Despite rising oil production, economic growth has been low in 2007, in part because of the impact of Hurricane Dean. The authorities are confident that the banking system is stable and adequately capitalized, and largely insulated from international market turmoil.

I. Background

1. Belize suffered considerable destruction from floods resulting from tropical rain systems in May–June and October 2008. The weather system culminating in Tropical Storm Arthur made a landfall on May 28 in Nicaragua. Through the first week of June, total rainfall in Belize reached nearly 30 inches, resulting in extensive flooding in the Corozal, Orange Walk, and Stann Creek Districts. Tropical Depression No. 16 (TD-16) made landfall in northern Honduras on October 16, 2008 inundating the highland region of Central America with rain for about five consecutive days. The situation was exacerbated a few days later by strong rainfall in Southern Mexico. Within days, the water masses moved from the Cayo highlands eastward into the Belize River Valley, and from the Mexican border Southward, to the lower-lying regions of central and Northern Belize, flooding over 100 communities in the Eastern Cayo, Belize, Orange Walk, and Corozal Districts. Flood waters began to recede only in November. The overall direct and economic losses are estimated at about US$66 million (4.8 percent of GDP), and the balance of payments impact at US$46 million.

2. The government promptly provided emergency assistance to the population in the regions affected by the disaster. The floods affected 50,000 people, or roughly one-sixth of Belize’s population. The government of Belize, through the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO), has distributed food, clean water, medical care, and other emergency relief supplies to about 16,500 people in the affected areas.

3. The authorities have requested a purchase equivalent to 25 percent of quota (SDR 4.7 million) under the Fund’s policy on Emergency Assistance for Natural Disasters (ENDA). In the attached letter, Prime Minister Barrow describes the harm caused by the floods to the Belizean people, physical infrastructure, and the economy, including the country’s balance of payments. He also explains his government’s macroeconomic policies for the period ahead. The Fund’s emergency assistance will bolster Belize’s external reserves which are being affected by increased imports and shortfalls in export earnings resulting from the floods (see below), at a time when deteriorating global conditions are expected to adversely affect the country’s external accounts.

4. The international community is also providing assistance. The CDB has already approved two infrastructure support loans of US$9 million to rebuild bridges destroyed by Tropical Storm Arthur. Belize has also requested additional assistance from the CDB (US$10 million) and from the IDB (US$5 million) for infrastructure projects, largely in the flood areas affected by TD-16. The International Red Cross, PAHO, UNICEF, UNDP, and USAID provided emergency grants (US$0.5 million), food items, and medical and technical assistance.

II. Economic Performance Prior to the Floods

5. In recent years, economic growth has been sustained largely by rising oil production, while inflation has remained under control. Despite rising oil production, economic growth was low in 2007 (1.2 percent), in part because of the impact of Hurricane Dean. In 2008, growth is estimated to have remained low (2½ percent), reflecting the impact of floods on economic activity. Rising food and fuel prices pushed 12-month inflation to 9½ percent last summer, but it declined to 4½ percent by November.

6. Boosted by external grants, the primary surplus of the central government is projected to increase from 3¾ percent of GDP in 2007/08 to 4¾ percent in FY2008/09. With nominal stocks broadly unchanged, total public debt declined to about 80 percent of GDP by end-2008. However, the underlying fiscal position is weaker as recurrent expenditure has been growing rapidly, at a time of rising dependence on volatile revenue sources, such as petroleum and grants.

7. The external current account deficit widened sharply to 13 percent of GDP in 2008, largely reflecting a surge in FDI-related imports. These increases in private inflows and associated imports are not expected to be sustained, in particular in the context of the global slowdown. The gross international reserves of the Central Bank of Belize (CBB) reached US$166 million (2 months of imports) by end-2008. Some of this recent increase, however, reflects external disbursements deposited by the government with the CBB, which will be spent during 2009 as agreed with donors.

8. The impact of the global slowdown on Belize appears to have been limited thus far. The authorities are confident that the banking system is stable and adequately capitalized, and largely insulated from international market turmoil. The first amortization payment on the private debt restructured in early 2007 will fall due only in 2019. However, external reserves at the CBB remain low and the economy is expected to be adversely affected by the impact of the global slowdown on tourism, FDI, and remittances, as well as by the lasting effect of the recent floods. Belize’s commodity exports (mainly crude oil, citrus, fisheries, banana, sugar) will be affected by lower international prices and tourist arrivals will decline reflecting income and wealth effects of the global slowdown impacting Belize’s main partner countries.

9. Progress in the structural reform agenda continues, but significant challenges persist. In the area of tax administration, domestic revenue collection is being computerized and the ASYCUDA system, to be rolled in the coming months, is expected to strengthen the customs department and enhance audit procedures. A paper outlining next steps in reforming monetary management will be submitted shortly for the consideration by the government. A review of public expenditure and financial accountability supported by the European Union is being finalized, setting out a reform agenda. The authorities are aware of the pressing need to strengthen the financial position of key public sector programs, in particular with regard to the Social Security Board and the pension plan for civil servants, in order to ensure the long-term viability of public finances.

III. Economic Impact of the Floods

10. According to a preliminary assessment by NEMO, the damage to output and infrastructure from the two floods reached 4.8 percent of GDP. The damage to agriculture, which ruined the crops of bananas, corn, papaya, and sugarcane, was substantial, with additional secondary impact on other sectors of the economy. Tourism was also adversely affected, as many tourist destinations, including those for cruise ship passenger day-tours, were flooded or could not be accessed by road, and had to be temporarily closed. Losses to infrastructure were also significant. Flood waters undermined roads and destroyed or weakened bridges. More than 1,700 buildings were inundated, destroying private household items and private and public housing infrastructure.

11. The fiscal impact of the floods is expected to be mostly in the form of additional spending on emergency relief and reconstruction. Revenue performance has been on target, underpinned by robust tax collections, in particular from the sales tax and petroleum extraction. The authorities have reallocated investment and additional spending to assist the affected population and rehabilitate vital infrastructure, estimated at US$30 million (2.2 percent of GDP). A significant share of additional spending on infrastructure rehabilitation will extend into FY 2009/10, and will be reflected in the next year’s budget.

12. The balance of payments impact of the two floods is estimated at US$46 million (3.3 percent of GDP). The external current account position will be affected by losses in exports of agricultural goods and tourism receipts, as well as increased imports of food and inputs for agriculture and infrastructure rehabilitation. Most of the export losses, conservatively estimated at the cost of destroyed unprocessed export crops, took place during 2008 and were mainly in the citrus and banana sectors. By contrast, losses in the sugar sector will be principally reflected in lower exports in 2009. On the import side, about two thirds of the impact will be from higher imports of reconstruction-related materials, and most of the remainder for agricultural inputs, which is expected to take place in 2009. Imports will also be affected by slower economic activity and lower international prices. The combined impact of the floods over the 2008–09 period is equivalent to nearly one third of end-2008 external foreign reserves.

Estimated Impact of 2008 Floods on External Current Accounts During 2008-091/

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

article image
Sources: Belizean authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

These estimates are based on a preliminary assessment of losses by the authorities and do not include possible additional current flows, such as grants, insurance payments, etc.

IV. The Policy Response

13. After focusing on emergency relief, the authorities are now concentrating their efforts on infrastructure rehabilitation and measures to restart economic activity in the affected areas. Assessment of the repair needs to critical infrastructure is being conducted with the support of the CDB and the IDB, which are in the process of preparing their financial assistance. The government has allocated about US$6 million from its own resources for infrastructure rehabilitation during 2009. In the context of the budget preparation for FY 2009/10, the government has indicated that it will review its ongoing investment program to incorporate the additional flood relief spending in a manner consistent with medium-term debt sustainability.

14. The authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to pursuing prudent fiscal policies. As stated in the attached letter, the government is committed to a fiscal strategy aimed at reducing the debt ratio significantly over the medium term, maintaining price stability, and increasing Belize’s external reserves. They recognize that Belize’s public debt burden remains high, which limits the fiscal space for addressing the consequences of exogenous shocks. They are also aware of a growing dependence of the budget on volatile revenue sources such as petroleum and grants. Therefore, they intend to consider appropriate policy adjustments while broadly following the fiscal strategy outlined in the context of last year’s Article IV consultation. The authorities have also indicated that they welcome the opportunity to discuss their fiscal strategy and needed policy adjustments in the context of the forthcoming 2009 Article IV consultation.

15. The authorities remain committed to fiscal structural reforms to boost revenues and strengthen the viability of public finances. Further improvements in tax administration, including more transparency and regular audits of oil taxation, are key priorities. The authorities recognize the need to develop a strategy for contingent public liabilities. The pension plan for civil servants will require additional annual budget contributions for the next decade and the Social Security Board needs to be reformed to regain a sound financial footing. Benefits coverage and participant contributions under both plans may need to be adjusted to restore financial viability. The roll-out of the National Health Insurance is being delayed pending agreement on how to achieve sustainable funding. The authorities also indicated that the Development Finance Corporation will resume its lending operations in the coming months, with funding from the CDB, and that appropriate safeguards will be in place to ensure financial viability and avoid risks to the budget.

V. Access and Capacity To Repay

16. The authorities have requested a purchase for an amount equivalent to SDR 4.7 million (25 percent of quota) under the Fund’s policy of ENDA. The purchase—which represents approximately 0.5 percent of Belize’s 2008 GDP—would help meet the immediate foreign exchange needs stemming from the floods, thereby reducing a decline in Belize’s external reserves, which remain low relative to imports and external debt service.

17. It is expected that Belize will be able to discharge its obligations to the Fund in a timely manner. Belize’s public sector and external debt was on a declining trajectory before the tropical systems of 2008, largely reflecting improvements in the fiscal primary balance since 2005. Belize is also benefiting from a significant cash-flow relief obtained in the cooperative debt restructuring agreement concluded with external private creditors in 2007. This agreement resulted in a 21 percent NPV reduction in the external debt owed to private creditors.

18. Belize’s public debt is expected to remain on a declining path, but debt-related risks have increased in the deteriorating global environment. Belize remains vulnerable to exogenous shocks, as its public debt burden is high and external debt service obligations are set to increase in two steps in 2010 and 2012, when the coupon rate on the private restructured debt reaches 8.5 percent, up from 4.5 percent currently. In addition, external reserves would remain low (Table 4) under unchanged policies (the authorities’ commitment to increase them is reassuring in this regard). This will overlap with the period of repurchases under the ENDA falling due in 2012–14. However, in the staff’s view the risks to the Fund are mitigated by the authorities’ commitment to prudent fiscal and monetary policies and to maintaining macroeconomic stability.

VI. Staff Appraisal

19. Belize’s economy has suffered significant losses from the tropical systems and the resulting floods during 2008. Economic growth in 2008 was reduced by the floods that paralyzed economic activity in large parts of the country for weeks. In addition, Belize’s imports will increase to provide inputs to agriculture and for repairs to damaged infrastructure. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but considerable efforts and resources are needed to rebuild productive capacity to the levels prior to the floods, particularly in the agricultural sector which is important for growth and exports. Belize is also facing higher investment needs to repair damaged public infrastructure, at a time of tight budgetary resources and limited international reserves.

20. The staff believes that policies outlined in the letter of intent are adequate for sustaining fiscal consolidation and maintaining broad macroeconomic stability. The authorities rightly seek to address the reconstruction effort through financial assistance from multilateral institutions on relatively favorable terms and the reallocation of public investment, cognizant of the large public debt. The staff welcomes the opportunity to review the authorities’ fiscal strategy in the context of the forthcoming Article IV consultation discussions, and in particular to take into account a significant deterioration in the global environment. The authorities’ fiscal strategy will need to target primary surpluses consistent with improving debt sustainability within a framework of sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms aimed at achieving high and sustainable growth over the medium term.

21. The staff supports the authorities’ request for a purchase under the Fund’s policy on emergency assistance for natural disasters. In the staff’s view, the authorities’ request is justified on the basis of the considerable damage to the economy and associated balance of payment needs, in the context of low international reserves. Belize’s large public debt and a relatively high vulnerability to exogenous shocks could pose some risks to the Fund’s resources. Nonetheless, these risks, in staff view, are mitigated to a large degree by the soundness of policies outlined in the attached letter of intent, the expectation of continued support from the international community, and the authorities’ commitment to work closely with the Fund in developing the medium-term fiscal strategy to improve debt sustainability. The staff welcomes the authorities’ commitment to stay current in all debt-service payments to creditors and not to impose or intensify restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, introduce multiple currency practices, nor impose or intensify import restrictions for balance of payments purposes, or conclude bilateral payments’ agreements that are inconsistent with Article VIII.

Table 1.

Belize: Selected Economic Indicators, 2004-09

article image
Sources: Belize authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

In percent of GDP.

Including inventory accumulation.

Calendar year.

Including official grants.

Public and publicly guaranteed external debt.

Excluding amortization and interest payments of the debt exchange operation in 2007.

Table 2a.

Belize: Operations of the Central Government, 2007-10 1/

article image
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank of Belize; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Fiscal year end-March.

Table 2b.

Belize: Operations of the Central Government, 2007-10 1/

article image
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank of Belize; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Fiscal year end-March.

Table 3.

Belize: Operations of the Banking System, 2006-11

article image
Sources: The Central Bank of Belize; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Includes Central Government's foreign assets.

Table 4.

Belize: Balance of Payments, 2006-14

article image
Sources: Central Bank of Belize; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Disbursements and amortization are net of the debt exchange operation in 2007.

Detailed data on private sector flows are not available.

Table 5.

Belize: Financial and External Vulnerability Indicators, 2004-08

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

article image
Sources: Central Bank of Belize, Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

Data for 2008 is for the period ending in Sep.

Treasury bill rate adjusted by end-of-period inflation.

Excluding amortization and interest payments of the debt exchange operation in 2007.

Table 6.

Belize: Medium-Term Outlook, 2006-14

article image
Source: Fund staff projections.

Fiscal projections are on a calendar year basis.

Disbursements and amortization exclude the gross flows of the debt exchange operation in 2007.

Includes errors and omissions.

Table 7a.

Belize: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2003-2013

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

article image

Public sector debt includes central government, publicly guaranteed external debt, anectodal external public debt and other public sector external debt. External debt is on a gross basis, while domestic debt is on a net basis.

Derived as [(r - π(1+g) - g + αε(1+r-)]/(1+g+π+gπw)) times previous period debt ratio, with r = interest rate; π = growth rate of GDP deflator; g = real GDP growth rate; α = share of foreign-currency denominated debt; and e = nominal exchange rate depreciation (measured by increase in local currency value of U.S. dollar).

The real interest rate contribution is derived from the denominator in footnote 2/ as r - π (1+g) and the real growth contribution as -g.

The exchange rate contribution is derived from the numerator in footnote 2/ as αε(1+r).

For projections, this line includes exchange rate changes.

Defined as public sector deficit, plus amortization of medium and long-term public sector debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.

The key variables include real GDP growth; real interest rate; and primary balance in percent of GDP.

Derived as nominal interest expenditure divided by previous period debt stock.

Assumes that key variables (real GDP growth, real interest rate, and other identified debt-creating flows) remain at the level of 2013 to capture the increased interest rates starting from 2013 due to the step-up structure of the exchanged bond.

Figure 1a.
Figure 1a.

Belize Public Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/

(Public debt in percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2009, 069; 10.5089/9781451805574.002.A001

Sources: International Monetary Fund, country desk data, and staff estimates.1/ Shaded areas represent actual data. Individual shocks are permanent one-half standard deviation shocks. Figures in the boxes represent average projections for the respective variables in the baseline and scenario being presented. Ten-year historical average for the variable is also shown.2/ Permanent – standard deviation shocks applied to real interest rate, growth rate, and primary balance.3/ One-time real depreciation of 30 percent and 10 percent of GDP shock to contingent liabilities occur in 2008, with real depreciation defined as nominal depreciation (measured by percentage fall in dollar value of local currency) minus domestic inflation (based on GDP deflator).
Table 7b.

Belize: External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2003-2013

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

article image

Derived as [r - g - r(1+g) + ea(1+r)]/(1+g+r+gr) times previous period debt stock, with r = nominal effective interest rate on external debt; r = change in domestic GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms, g = real GDP growth rate, e = nominal appreciation (increase in dollar value of domestic currency), and alpha = share of domestic-currency denominated debt in total external debt.

The contribution from price and exchange rate changes is defined as [-r(1+g) + ea(1+r)]/(1+g+r+gr) times previous period debt stock. r increases with an appreciating domestic currency (e > 0) and rising inflation (based on GDP deflator).

For projection, line includes the impact of price and exchange rate changes.

Defined as current account deficit, plus amortization on medium- and long-term debt, plus short-term debt at end of previous period.

The key variables include real GDP growth; nominal interest rate; dollar deflator growth; and both non-interest current account and non-debt inflows in percent of GDP.

Long-run, constant balance that stabilizes the debt ratio assuming that key variables (real GDP growth, nominal interest rate, dollar deflator growth, and non-debt inflows in percent of GDP) remain at their levels of the last projection year.

Figure 1b.
Figure 1b.

Belize: External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/

(External debt in percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2009, 069; 10.5089/9781451805574.002.A001

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Country desk data, and staff estimates.1/ Shaded areas represent actual data. Individual shocks are permanent one-half standard deviation shocks. Figures in the boxes represent average projections for the respective variables in the baseline and scenario being presented. Ten-year historical average for the variable is also shown.2/ Permanent ½ standard deviation shocks applied to real interest rate, growth rate, and current account balance.3/ One-time real depreciation of 30 percent occurs in 2008.
Table 8.

Belize: Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2006-14

(Under obligation schedule)

article image
Sources: Belize authorities and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Totals might not add up due to rounding.

1 USD = 0.664029 SDR (as of Jan 6th 2009).

Appendix I. Belize—Fund Relations

(As of January 16, 2009)

I. Membership Status:Joined: March 16, 1982; Article VIII

II. General Resources Account:

article image

III. SDR Department:

article image

IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

V. Latest Financial Arrangements:

article image

VI. Projected Payments to Fund: None

VII. Implementation of HIPC Initiative: Not Applicable

VIII. Implementation of MDRI Assistance: Not Applicable

B. Nonfinancial Relations

IX. Exchange Rate

Since 1976, the Belize dollar has been pegged to the U.S. dollar, the intervention currency, at the rate of BZ$2 per U.S. dollar. Since the second quarter of 1995, the central bank has been resorting to the rationing of its sales of foreign exchange to commercial banks on an ad-hoc basis, except for some essential import items, which has given rise to restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions.

Attachment I

January 23, 2009

Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn

Managing Director

International Monetary Fund

700 19th Street, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20431

Dear Mr. Strauss-Kahn:

Belize has been badly affected by two tropical weather events during the 2008 Hurricane Season. In late May, the southern part of Belize suffered significant damage following the passage of Tropical Storm Arthur. The second event occurred over the period mid-October to early November 2008 when the effects of Tropical Depression 16 (TD 16) caused severe flooding in western and northern Belize, and the Belize River Valley.

Overall, the entire country was affected by torrential rains following the passage of these two tropical storms, which resulted in unprecedented flooding causing loss to human lives and severe damage to the country’s infrastructure including the transportation system and income earning sectors. The agricultural sector, in particular sugar cane, corn, papayas, vegetables, rice and bananas, took the brunt of the damage while commercial and residential buildings and other key physical infrastructure were also affected. In the tourism sector, the cottage industries along the Belize River Valley were partially or completely inundated by flood waters. Additionally, tourism earnings were impacted through cancellations and poor access to primary destinations and ancillary facilities. The overall damage is estimated at US$66 million, 4.8 percent of GDP, and the balance of payments impact at US$45 million, 3.3 percent of GDP.

Our preliminary estimates suggest that growth in the economy may slow to 1.5 percent in 2009 after 3 years of growth not only as a result of these two natural disasters, but also because of the global economic slowdown. The external current account deficit will remain large as earnings from agricultural exports and tourism revenues fall and rehabilitation and reconstruction imports rise.

The Government moved immediately after these two events to provide relief to those affected by the disasters and repair and reconstruct the damaged homes and dwellings while seeking financing to repair and rehabilitate damaged infrastructure particularly the road network. Donors, including the IDB and CDB, have indicated their willingness to help meet these priorities but the process will require a considerable amount of time and resources.

Accordingly, the Government of Belize requests a purchase equivalent to SDR 4.7 million (25 percent of quota) under the Fund’s Policy on Emergency Assistance for Natural Disasters. The purchase will help meet the foreign exchange needs related to the disaster response, the rise in imports of food, and the replacement of damaged household items, thereby easing pressure on our external reserves and maintaining confidence in the external position.

The Government’s overall strategy for dealing with the crisis is mindful of its commitment to implement prudent fiscal and monetary policies that would bring about a reduction of external public debt ratios over the medium term in order to regain market access. We remain committed to fiscal structural reforms to boost revenue and strengthen the viability of public finances. Our monetary policy will continue to aim at maintaining price stability and increasing Belize’s international reserves. The first and immediate priority is to provide assistance to those who suffered abrupt losses in earnings and repair critical infrastructure (roads, bridges, drains and culverts). The emergency response has been largely expenditure-related facilitated in part by the reallocation of previously budgeted capital expenditure of US$1.5 million and by additional expenditure of US$4 million to repair and rebuild critical infrastructure, and to assist those who were displaced and/or severely affected by the floods.

The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) have both been approached for emergency reconstruction assistance. The CDB has approved already two loans in the sum of US $9.3 million for the reconstruction of two bridges destroyed by Tropical Storm Arthur and for clean-up and restoration to damaged infrastructure. Negotiations are well advanced to access quick-disbursing loans from the CDB (US $10 million) and the IDB (US $5 million) to repair the major highway network affected by TD 16. Over the medium-to-long term, we will restore normalcy to the roads and bridges affected by the floods, replace the housing stock, and assist farmers in the rehabilitation of their fields and replacement of livestock lost in the floods.

The government will continue to cooperate with the Fund in an effort to strengthen Belize’s balance of payments’ situation and maintain economic stability and expect to finalize our medium term and fiscal strategy during the upcoming Article IV Mission scheduled for the latter half of March 2009. The government will stay current in all debt-service payments to creditors and does not intend to impose or intensify restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, introduce multiple currency practices, impose or intensify import restrictions for balance of payments purposes, or conclude bilateral payments’ agreements that are inconsistent with Article VIII.

Sincerely yours,

/s/

Dean Oliver Barrow

Prime Minister and Minister of Finance

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Belize: Use of Fund Resources: Request for Emergency Assistance: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
Author:
International Monetary Fund
  • Figure 1a.

    Belize Public Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/

    (Public debt in percent of GDP)

  • Figure 1b.

    Belize: External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests 1/

    (External debt in percent of GDP)