Abstract
The staff report for Rwanda’s combined 2008 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion is examined. Sound macroeconomic and structural policies backed by substantial donor assistance have led to macroeconomic stability, robust growth and low inflation, a comfortable level of international reserves, and significantly reduced external debt. Short-term risks to economic growth and the balance of payments have emerged because of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown.
Appendix I. Rwanda: Relations with the Fund
(As of October 31, 2008)
I. Membership Status: Joined: September 30, 1963; Article VIII
II. General Resources Account:
| SDR Million | %Quota | |
| Quota | 80.10 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 80.11 | 100.02 |
| Reserve Position | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Holdings Exchange Rate |
| SDR Million | %Quota | |
| Quota | 80.10 | 100.00 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 80.11 | 100.02 |
| Reserve Position | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Holdings Exchange Rate |
III. SDR Department:
| SDR Million | %Allocation | |
| Net cumulative allocation | 13.70 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 20.37 | 148.72 |
| SDR Million | %Allocation | |
| Net cumulative allocation | 13.70 | 100.00 |
| Holdings | 20.37 | 148.72 |
IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans:
| SDR Million | %Quota | |
| PRGF Arrangements | 7.41 | 9.25 |
| SDR Million | %Quota | |
| PRGF Arrangements | 7.41 | 9.25 |
V. Latest Financial Arrangements:
| Type | Date of Arrangement | Expiration Date | Amount Approved (SDR Million) | Amount Drawn (SDR Million) |
| PRGF | Jun 12, 2006 | Jun 11, 2009 | 8.01 | 5.70 |
| PRGF | Aug 12, 2002 | Jun 11, 2006 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| PRGF | Jun 24, 1998 | Apr 30, 2002 | 71.40 | 61.88 |
| Type | Date of Arrangement | Expiration Date | Amount Approved (SDR Million) | Amount Drawn (SDR Million) |
| PRGF | Jun 12, 2006 | Jun 11, 2009 | 8.01 | 5.70 |
| PRGF | Aug 12, 2002 | Jun 11, 2006 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| PRGF | Jun 24, 1998 | Apr 30, 2002 | 71.40 | 61.88 |
VI. Projected Payments to Fund 1/ (SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):
When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.
| Forthcoming | |||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
| Principal | 0.06 | 0.40 | 0.68 | ||
| Charges/Interest | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Total | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.44 | 0.72 |
When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.
| Forthcoming | |||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
| Principal | 0.06 | 0.40 | 0.68 | ||
| Charges/Interest | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Total | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.44 | 0.72 |
When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.
VII. Implementation of HIPC Initiative:
| Enhanced framework | |||
| I Commitment of HIPC assistance | |||
| Decision point date | Dec 2000 | ||
| Assistance committed by all creditors | |||
| (US$ million)23 | 695.50 | ||
| Of which: IMF assistance (US$ million) | 63.40 | ||
| (SDR equivalent in millions) | 46.79 | ||
| Completion point date | Apr 2005 | ||
| II Delivery of IMF assistance (SDR million) | |||
| Amount disbursed | 46.79 | ||
| Interim assistance | 14.45 | ||
| Completion point | 32.34 | ||
| Additional disbursement of interest income24 | 3.77 | ||
| Total disbursements | 50.56 | ||
| Enhanced framework | |||
| I Commitment of HIPC assistance | |||
| Decision point date | Dec 2000 | ||
| Assistance committed by all creditors | |||
| (US$ million)23 | 695.50 | ||
| Of which: IMF assistance (US$ million) | 63.40 | ||
| (SDR equivalent in millions) | 46.79 | ||
| Completion point date | Apr 2005 | ||
| II Delivery of IMF assistance (SDR million) | |||
| Amount disbursed | 46.79 | ||
| Interim assistance | 14.45 | ||
| Completion point | 32.34 | ||
| Additional disbursement of interest income24 | 3.77 | ||
| Total disbursements | 50.56 | ||
VIII. Implementation of MDRI Assistance
| I Total Debt Relief (SDR Million)25 | 52.74 | ||||
| Of which: MDRI | 20.19 | ||||
| HIPIC | 32.55 | ||||
| II Debt Relief by Facility (SDR million) | |||||
| Delivery Date | GRA | PRGF | Total | ||
| January 2006 | NA | 52.74 | 52.74 | ||
| I Total Debt Relief (SDR Million)25 | 52.74 | ||||
| Of which: MDRI | 20.19 | ||||
| HIPIC | 32.55 | ||||
| II Debt Relief by Facility (SDR million) | |||||
| Delivery Date | GRA | PRGF | Total | ||
| January 2006 | NA | 52.74 | 52.74 | ||
Decision point—point at which the IMF and the World Bank determine whether a country qualifies for assistance under the HIPC Initiative and decide on the amount of assistance to be committed.
Interim assistance—amount disbursed to a country during the period between decision and completion points, up to 20 percent annually and 60 percent in total of the assistance committed at the decision point (or 25 percent and 75 percent, respectively, in exceptional circumstances).
Completion point—point at which a country receives the remaining balance of its assistance committed at the decision point, together with an additional disbursement of interest income as defined in footnote 3 above. The timing of the completion point is linked to the implementation of pre-agreed key structural reforms (i.e., floating completion point).
IX. Safeguards Assessments:
Under the Fund’s safeguards assessment policy, the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) was subject to a safeguards assessment with respect of the PRGF arrangement approved on June 12, 2006. The update assessment proposed recommendations to address continuing vulnerabilities in the external audit and financial reporting areas. The implementation of these measures is being monitored by IMF staff.
X. Exchange System:
The Rwandan franc was pegged to the SDR until March 6, 1995, when Rwanda adopted a market-determined exchange rate system. In 2006, the exchange rate regime was reclassified to a conventional fixed peg in the IMF’s Quarterly Report on Exchange Arrangements. On December 1998, Rwanda accepted the obligations under Article VIII, Sections 2, 3 and 4 of the IMF and maintains a system free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. Since 2001, the NBR has been operating a weekly auction to sell foreign exchange to commercial banks and published a reference exchange rate based on its results. From June 2007, the auction was abolished and replaced by a new arrangement whereby the NBR stood ready to trade with commercial banks in foreign exchange in unlimited amounts at the price quoted by the NBR. The exchange rate was set daily as a combination of the previous day’s reference rate, the interbank rate on the previous day and the five-day moving average of the commercial banks’ exchange rates with their clients. From February 2008, the exchange rate of the NBR was adjusted weekly according to the difference between the targeted foreign exchange sales and the actual amounts sold. From July, the reference rate has been determined by the weighted average of the rate applied by the NBR and commercial banks in their foreign exchange transactions with clients during the week, but excluding all transactions between banks. From mid-November 2008, the NBR moved to setting the exchange rate on a daily basis.
XI. Article IV Consultation:
Rwanda is on the revised 24-month consultation cycle. The Executive Board discussed the staff report for the 2006 Article IV consultation (Country Report No. 07/80) on January 29, 2007.
XII. FSAP Participation, ROSCs, and OFC Assessments:
A Report on Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency (ROSC) was issued in July 2003. A Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) took place in February 2005. Rwanda has not had an Offshore Financial Center (OFC) assessment.
XIII. Technical Assistance:
| 2001 | FAD experts on expenditure management and on tax policy. |
| 2001 | FAD mission on tax policy. |
| 2001 | MFD mission on foreign exchange policy, monetary policy, and banking supervision. |
| 2001 | MFD expert on monetary policy implementation. |
| 2001 | FAD mission on assessment of tracking of poverty reducing expenditure, and the fiscal ROSC. |
| 2001 | MFD expert on banking supervision. |
| 2001 | FAD experts on expenditure management, and on tax policy (until mid-year). |
| 2002 | MFD expert on banking supervision (until November). |
| 2002 | MFD expert on monetary and foreign exchange rate policy. |
| 2002 | AFRITAC East work plan mission. |
| 2003 | AFRITAC East mission on statistical issues. |
| 2003 | AFRITAC East expert on Organic Budget Law. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on fiscal ROSC and budget management system. |
| 2003 | AFRITAC East mission on developing the market for government treasury bills. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on reform of investment incentives and tax reform. |
| 2003 | MFD expert on monetary and foreign exchange rate policy. |
| 2003 | MFD expert on banking supervision and regulation. |
| 2003 | MFD missions on banking supervision. |
| 2003 | MFD mission on foreign reserves management. |
| 2003 | STA multi-sector statistics mission. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on Decentralization. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on revenue administration. |
| 2004 | AFRITAC East expert on financial regulations. |
| 2004 | AFRITAC East mission on treasury reforms. |
| 2004 | AFRITAC East expert on implementing cash flow planning and banking arrangements. |
| 2004 | FAD tax administration expert on strengthening of revenue administration. |
| 2004 | FAD mission on revenue administration. |
| 2004 | MFD/LEG mission on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism. |
| 2004 | MFD expert on banking supervision and regulation. |
| 2004 | MFD expert on monetary policy, monetary operations, and money markets. |
| 2004 | MFD missions on on-site banking supervision. |
| 2005 | AFRITAC East expert follow up on cash management. |
| 2005 | MFD/LEG mission on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism. |
| 2005 | MFD mission on financial statements of specific bank. |
| 2005 | MFD-WB joint FSAP mission. |
| 2005 | LEG mission on customs legislation. |
| 2005 | STA mission on Balance of Payments statistics. |
| 2005 | LEG mission on tax legislation. |
| 2005 | FAD mission on public accounting: decentralized accounting for central government. |
| 2005 | FAD expert on tax administration. |
| 2005 | MFD resident expert on monetary operations, monetary policy, money markets. |
| 2005 | MFD expert on banking supervision. |
| 2005 | LEG mission on drafting an amendment to the banking law. |
| 2005 | MFD mission on banking supervision and bank restructuring. |
| 2006 | AFRITAC East experts on establishing intergovernmental fiscal unit in the MOF. |
| 2006 | FAD advisor trade facilitation. |
| 2006 | MFD FSAP-follow up advisory mission on monetary and foreign exchange operations and NBR internal audit. |
| 2006 | LEG mission to strengthen legal and regulatory framework for bank supervision. |
| 2006 | AFRITAC East advisors on finalization of OBL and financial regulations |
| 2007 | AFRITAC East advisors on workshops for implementation of OBL and financial regulations. |
| 2007 | MCM expert on bank restructuring. |
| 2007 | MCM expert on foreign exchange operations. |
| 2008 | LEG mission to assist the Ministry of Finance in modernizing the tax system. |
| 2008 | LEG mission on banking legislation. |
| 2008 | MCM expert on foreign exchange operations. |
| 2008 | MCM mission to assist in building up internal audit in the central bank. |
| 2008 | FAD expert on revenue administration. |
| 2008 | AFRITAC East advisors on (i) improving the budget preparation process and budget accounting, and (ii) changing to the GFS 2001-based economic classification (jointly with STA). |
| 2008 | MCM mission on monetary policy operations, foreign exchange operations, and assessment of the financial health of banks. |
| 2008 | AFRITAC East advisors on enhancement of national accounts estimation. |
| 2001 | FAD experts on expenditure management and on tax policy. |
| 2001 | FAD mission on tax policy. |
| 2001 | MFD mission on foreign exchange policy, monetary policy, and banking supervision. |
| 2001 | MFD expert on monetary policy implementation. |
| 2001 | FAD mission on assessment of tracking of poverty reducing expenditure, and the fiscal ROSC. |
| 2001 | MFD expert on banking supervision. |
| 2001 | FAD experts on expenditure management, and on tax policy (until mid-year). |
| 2002 | MFD expert on banking supervision (until November). |
| 2002 | MFD expert on monetary and foreign exchange rate policy. |
| 2002 | AFRITAC East work plan mission. |
| 2003 | AFRITAC East mission on statistical issues. |
| 2003 | AFRITAC East expert on Organic Budget Law. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on fiscal ROSC and budget management system. |
| 2003 | AFRITAC East mission on developing the market for government treasury bills. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on reform of investment incentives and tax reform. |
| 2003 | MFD expert on monetary and foreign exchange rate policy. |
| 2003 | MFD expert on banking supervision and regulation. |
| 2003 | MFD missions on banking supervision. |
| 2003 | MFD mission on foreign reserves management. |
| 2003 | STA multi-sector statistics mission. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on Decentralization. |
| 2003 | FAD mission on revenue administration. |
| 2004 | AFRITAC East expert on financial regulations. |
| 2004 | AFRITAC East mission on treasury reforms. |
| 2004 | AFRITAC East expert on implementing cash flow planning and banking arrangements. |
| 2004 | FAD tax administration expert on strengthening of revenue administration. |
| 2004 | FAD mission on revenue administration. |
| 2004 | MFD/LEG mission on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism. |
| 2004 | MFD expert on banking supervision and regulation. |
| 2004 | MFD expert on monetary policy, monetary operations, and money markets. |
| 2004 | MFD missions on on-site banking supervision. |
| 2005 | AFRITAC East expert follow up on cash management. |
| 2005 | MFD/LEG mission on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism. |
| 2005 | MFD mission on financial statements of specific bank. |
| 2005 | MFD-WB joint FSAP mission. |
| 2005 | LEG mission on customs legislation. |
| 2005 | STA mission on Balance of Payments statistics. |
| 2005 | LEG mission on tax legislation. |
| 2005 | FAD mission on public accounting: decentralized accounting for central government. |
| 2005 | FAD expert on tax administration. |
| 2005 | MFD resident expert on monetary operations, monetary policy, money markets. |
| 2005 | MFD expert on banking supervision. |
| 2005 | LEG mission on drafting an amendment to the banking law. |
| 2005 | MFD mission on banking supervision and bank restructuring. |
| 2006 | AFRITAC East experts on establishing intergovernmental fiscal unit in the MOF. |
| 2006 | FAD advisor trade facilitation. |
| 2006 | MFD FSAP-follow up advisory mission on monetary and foreign exchange operations and NBR internal audit. |
| 2006 | LEG mission to strengthen legal and regulatory framework for bank supervision. |
| 2006 | AFRITAC East advisors on finalization of OBL and financial regulations |
| 2007 | AFRITAC East advisors on workshops for implementation of OBL and financial regulations. |
| 2007 | MCM expert on bank restructuring. |
| 2007 | MCM expert on foreign exchange operations. |
| 2008 | LEG mission to assist the Ministry of Finance in modernizing the tax system. |
| 2008 | LEG mission on banking legislation. |
| 2008 | MCM expert on foreign exchange operations. |
| 2008 | MCM mission to assist in building up internal audit in the central bank. |
| 2008 | FAD expert on revenue administration. |
| 2008 | AFRITAC East advisors on (i) improving the budget preparation process and budget accounting, and (ii) changing to the GFS 2001-based economic classification (jointly with STA). |
| 2008 | MCM mission on monetary policy operations, foreign exchange operations, and assessment of the financial health of banks. |
| 2008 | AFRITAC East advisors on enhancement of national accounts estimation. |
XIV. Resident Representative:
Mr. Lars Holger Engström assumed his duties as Resident Representative in February 2005.
XV. Management Visit:
The Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Portugal, visited Rwanda during May 3-5, 2007.
Appendix II. Rwanda: Joint Management Action Plan: July 2008–June 2009
| Title | Products/Activity | Provisional timing of mission (if relevant) | Expected delivery date |
|---|---|---|---|
| I. Mutual Information on Relevant Work Program | |||
| Bank Work | |||
| Program | A. Strategy and Analytical Work | ||
| Country Assistance Strategy | August 2008 | ||
| Science and Technology Needs Assessment | October 2008 | ||
| Education - Country Status Report | June 2009 | ||
| Investment Climate Survey | June 2009 | ||
| Regional trade policy in the context of the EAC, COMESA and EPA | June 2009 | ||
| Technical Assistance for Public Expenditure Management in Rwanda | June 2010 | ||
| B. Ongoing and New Projects | |||
| Urban Infrastructure and City Management | March 2009 | ||
| Urgent Electricity Rehabilitation | July 2009 | ||
| Decentralization and Community Development | September 2009 | ||
| Public Sector Capacity Building Project | December 2009 | ||
| E-Rwanda | December 2010 | ||
| Regional Trade Facilitation | June 2011 | ||
| Transport Sector Development | June 2012 | ||
| IMF Work | |||
| Program | A. Missions | ||
| Article IV Consultation and fifth review of PRGF | October 22 - November 4, 2008 | December 2008 | |
| Sixth review of PRGF and likely discussion on prospective new program arrangement | February/March 2009 | June 2009 | |
| B. Analytical Work | |||
| EAC Selected Issues Paper on Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the EAC | No mission needed | October 2008 | |
| Assessment of Rwanda’s external stability and competitiveness | No mission needed | October 2008 | |
| Assessment of financial development and growth | No mission needed | December 2008 | |
| C. Technical Assistance | |||
| Fiscal | |||
| - Tax and customs administration | November 2008 | December 2008 | |
| - Revision of VAT Law | TBD | ||
| - Revenue forecasting | TBD | April 2009 | |
| - Public Financial Management | Ongoing | Ongoing | |
| Monetary | |||
| - Monetary policy operations and bank liquidity | October 2008 | ||
| - Interbank markets in local currency and foreign exchange | October 2008 | ||
| Financial | |||
| - Payment system regulation, rules and procedures | 2 to 3 missions during 2009 | Ongoing | |
| - Bank Supervision | |||
| - Nonbank supervision | October 2008 | ||
| Statistics | |||
| - National Accounts | About 3 missions | ||
| - Government Finance | per year | ||
| II. Request for Work Program Inputs (as needed) | |||
| Bank Request to Fund | Impact of Global Economic Crisis on key Macro Indicators and Growth in Rwanda | To share work being done | |
| Fund Request to Bank | Food and fuel price increases - impact on poverty and growth, policy assessment and response. | To share work done at the region level. No Rwanda-specific work planned. | Ongoing |
| Investment needs and their implications for development spending; quality of spending; and assessment of key infrastructure projects outlined in the Public Investment Program. | To share work being done in response to specific requests. | Ongoing | |
| Assessment of the public service reform program and medium-term pay strategy | To share work being done | ||
| Assessment of performance on fiscal decentralization, particularly in context with other countries | To share work being done | ||
| Regional trade policy in the context of the EAC, COMESA and EPA | To share TA/Analytical work being prepared for the EAC secretariat. | Ongoing | |
| III. Agreement on Joint Products | |||
| Joint products | Public and External Debt Sustainability Analysis | October/November 2008 | December 2008 |
| JSAN of annual poverty reduction strategy (EDPRS) implementation report. | |||
| Collaborate on PFM reform program. | Ongoing | ||
| Collaborate on financial sector reform program. | Ongoing | ||
| Review the PIP to ensure that investment selection criteria and prioritization are clear | October/November 2008 | December 2009 | |
| Title | Products/Activity | Provisional timing of mission (if relevant) | Expected delivery date |
|---|---|---|---|
| I. Mutual Information on Relevant Work Program | |||
| Bank Work | |||
| Program | A. Strategy and Analytical Work | ||
| Country Assistance Strategy | August 2008 | ||
| Science and Technology Needs Assessment | October 2008 | ||
| Education - Country Status Report | June 2009 | ||
| Investment Climate Survey | June 2009 | ||
| Regional trade policy in the context of the EAC, COMESA and EPA | June 2009 | ||
| Technical Assistance for Public Expenditure Management in Rwanda | June 2010 | ||
| B. Ongoing and New Projects | |||
| Urban Infrastructure and City Management | March 2009 | ||
| Urgent Electricity Rehabilitation | July 2009 | ||
| Decentralization and Community Development | September 2009 | ||
| Public Sector Capacity Building Project | December 2009 | ||
| E-Rwanda | December 2010 | ||
| Regional Trade Facilitation | June 2011 | ||
| Transport Sector Development | June 2012 | ||
| IMF Work | |||
| Program | A. Missions | ||
| Article IV Consultation and fifth review of PRGF | October 22 - November 4, 2008 | December 2008 | |
| Sixth review of PRGF and likely discussion on prospective new program arrangement | February/March 2009 | June 2009 | |
| B. Analytical Work | |||
| EAC Selected Issues Paper on Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the EAC | No mission needed | October 2008 | |
| Assessment of Rwanda’s external stability and competitiveness | No mission needed | October 2008 | |
| Assessment of financial development and growth | No mission needed | December 2008 | |
| C. Technical Assistance | |||
| Fiscal | |||
| - Tax and customs administration | November 2008 | December 2008 | |
| - Revision of VAT Law | TBD | ||
| - Revenue forecasting | TBD | April 2009 | |
| - Public Financial Management | Ongoing | Ongoing | |
| Monetary | |||
| - Monetary policy operations and bank liquidity | October 2008 | ||
| - Interbank markets in local currency and foreign exchange | October 2008 | ||
| Financial | |||
| - Payment system regulation, rules and procedures | 2 to 3 missions during 2009 | Ongoing | |
| - Bank Supervision | |||
| - Nonbank supervision | October 2008 | ||
| Statistics | |||
| - National Accounts | About 3 missions | ||
| - Government Finance | per year | ||
| II. Request for Work Program Inputs (as needed) | |||
| Bank Request to Fund | Impact of Global Economic Crisis on key Macro Indicators and Growth in Rwanda | To share work being done | |
| Fund Request to Bank | Food and fuel price increases - impact on poverty and growth, policy assessment and response. | To share work done at the region level. No Rwanda-specific work planned. | Ongoing |
| Investment needs and their implications for development spending; quality of spending; and assessment of key infrastructure projects outlined in the Public Investment Program. | To share work being done in response to specific requests. | Ongoing | |
| Assessment of the public service reform program and medium-term pay strategy | To share work being done | ||
| Assessment of performance on fiscal decentralization, particularly in context with other countries | To share work being done | ||
| Regional trade policy in the context of the EAC, COMESA and EPA | To share TA/Analytical work being prepared for the EAC secretariat. | Ongoing | |
| III. Agreement on Joint Products | |||
| Joint products | Public and External Debt Sustainability Analysis | October/November 2008 | December 2008 |
| JSAN of annual poverty reduction strategy (EDPRS) implementation report. | |||
| Collaborate on PFM reform program. | Ongoing | ||
| Collaborate on financial sector reform program. | Ongoing | ||
| Review the PIP to ensure that investment selection criteria and prioritization are clear | October/November 2008 | December 2009 | |
Appendix III. Rwanda: Statistical Issues
Data provision has some shortcomings, but is broadly adequate for surveillance. National accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments statistics have various weaknesses which hamper economic analysis. Monetary statistics and data relevant for banking supervision are adequate for program monitoring, but there is some scope for improvements in quality and timeliness. The country has participated in the General Data Dissemination System since October 2003. In August 2005, the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) was established following the passage of the new Statistics Law.
National Accounts and Price Statistics
Annual GDP estimates in current and constant prices are compiled and disseminated by the NIS, based on the 1968 System of National Accounts methodology. Work is primarily carried out by a United Nations Development Programme advisor as NIS staff have little training in national accounts compilation. Data quality is weak, reflecting inadequate human and material resources. While considerable effort has been made to improve the reliability of GDP estimates using the production approach, significant weaknesses in data collection on expenditures and income hinder the assessment of savings and investment. The reliability of national accounts estimates is also reduced by weak external sector statistics.
Since 2003, the East AFRITAC has advised the authorities on real sector statistical issues. This assistance is focused on capacity building to enable the construction of short-term indicators such as a monthly PPI for the manufacturing sector, which is a joint project with the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR). The results have not yet been integrated in the national accounts. A UK Department For International Development project is also supporting the NIS with a component on national accounts, aiming to establish a program of economic surveys and the development of leading indicators that can serve as source data for national accounts. Work is currently underway to rebase the national accounts to base year 2006. Work on the development of supply and use tables is due to begin in early 2009.
The consumer price index (CPI, 2003=100) utilizes expenditure weights derived from a 2000-01 survey of 6,450 households. Work is under way to rebase the CPI using data from the 2005/06 Household Living Conditions Survey which the NIS plans to publish in mid 2009. A quarterly PPI (base Q4 2003 = 100) is produced for manufacturing activities.
Real sector data are reported regularly for publication in International Finance Statistics (IFS), although with some lag, particularly for GDP estimates. Data on employment and wages are not collected, except for the central government.
Government Finance Statistics
Detailed monthly revenues and expenditures are reported to AFR with a lag of three to four weeks. These data are compiled by the flash-reporting unit of The Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN). A functional classification of government expenditure has been available since the 2003 budget. Within the economic classification, expenditures on PRSP-designated “priority areas” are clearly identifiable. The fiscal data do not capture capital expenditure consistently because capital projects (almost entirely externally financed) are mainly carried out by line ministries outside the regular budget process. Compilation of data on external budgetary assistance as well as on external debt would benefit from strengthened coordination between the finance ministry and the central bank. Efforts are underway to integrate the development budget into the normal budgetary procedures. Fiscal data often exhibit discrepancies between deficit and financing estimates. To address these issues, the authorities have made adjustments for changes in the balance of non-core government accounts, changes in cash in vault at the revenue authority, accounting errors, and other factors.
No sub-annual data are reported to STA for publication in the IFS, and annual government finance statistics have not been reported for publication in the GFS Yearbook since 1993.
Monetary and Financial Statistics
The balance sheet of the NBR and detailed data on money market transactions are transmitted to AFR on a weekly basis with a lag of one week, while the monetary survey and the consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks are transmitted on a monthly basis with a lag of about five weeks. Detailed data on interbank money market transactions are also provided upon request. Monetary data used to be reported separately to STA and published in the IFS. The reporting of monetary statistics to STA has been delayed during the migration to the Standardized Report Forms (SRFs) undertaken by the NBR. The interruption in reporting has been longer than initially planned as the progress of the SRF migration has been hampered by the scarcity of skilled staff.
An August 2007 STA mission found that (i) a new chart of accounts for commercial banks was enacted in 2005 and the call report forms sent to the NBR were improved, better reflecting the methodology of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual; (ii) the data on the Union des banques populaires du Rwanda—a countrywide mutual bank network—were included in the broad money survey beginning January 2004; (iii) the data on credit and savings cooperatives and other microfinance institutions are still not included in monetary statistics.
External Sector Statistics
Balance of payments statistics are affected by weaknesses in the collection of source data (treatment of customs data and bank settlement reports, questionnaires) and insufficient staffing. The June 2003 multisector statistics mission recommended: (1) reorganizing data entry and production of external trade statistics, using ASYCUDA and Eurotrace software; (2) adapting survey forms sent to companies to the BPM5 methodology; and (3) collaborating with Central Public Investments and External Finance Bureau (CEPEX) to obtain data on international and bilateral aid. Subsequently, STA balance of payments statistics missions followed up in January 2004 and June 2005, as did AFRITAC missions in October 2006 and June 2007.
Technical assistance resulted in significant improvements. In particular, the collection of data through direct surveys now seems to be well established, and the rate of response is satisfactory (except for embassies). The NBR has started compiling BOP/IIP statistics in conformity with the BMP5 methodology. Annual balance of payments and IIP data through 2007 have been reported to STA for publication in the IFS and the Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook.
Nevertheless, some weaknesses remain, particularly in the compilation of trade data. Data compilation was the main focus of the June 2006 AFRITAC mission, and many adjustments to customs data were introduced to improve coverage and valuation. The treatment of bank settlement reports is not effective, because of incomplete automation of the collection of declarations.
The coverage of external aid remains a cause of concern. Data produced by the CEPEX do not include aid from important UN agencies and from certain countries. Only the external aid registered in the Government budget is fully covered. Concerning the NGO sector, the data should result from the survey of NGOs, but its coverage is insufficient.
Databases on external public debt are maintained by both MINECOFIN and the NBR. A committee, composed of staffs from the ministries of finance and economic planning, foreign affairs, and the NBR, is responsible for collecting, harmonizing, and monitoring information on external public debt.
Rwanda: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of December 5, 2008)
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Daily (D); Weekly (W); Monthly (M); Quarterly (Q); Annually (A); Semi-annually (SA); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).
Rwanda: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of December 5, 2008)
| Date of Latest Observation | Date Received | Frequency of Data7 | Frequency of Reporting7 | Frequency of Publication7 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rates | 12/03/08 | 12/05/08 | D | W | M |
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 12/03/08 | 12/05/08 | W | W | M |
| Reserve/Base Money | 12/03/08 | 12/05/08 | W | W | M |
| Broad Money | 09/30/08 | 11/05/08 | M | M | M |
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 11/28/08 | 12/05/08 | W | W | M |
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 09/30/08 | 11/05/08 | M | M | M |
| Interest Rates2 | November 08 | 12/04/08 | M | M | M |
| Consumer Price Index | October 08 | 11/18/08 | M | M | M |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3—General Government4 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3—Central Government | September 08 | 10/22/08 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 12/31/07 | 03/27/08 | A | A | A |
| External Current Account Balance | 2007 | 03/21/08 | A | SA | A |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | 2007 | 03/21/08 | A | A | A |
| GDP/GNP | 2007 | 09/19/08 | A | SA | A |
| Gross External Debt | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| International Investment Position6 | 2007 | 10/09/2008 | A | A | A |
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Daily (D); Weekly (W); Monthly (M); Quarterly (Q); Annually (A); Semi-annually (SA); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).
Rwanda: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of December 5, 2008)
| Date of Latest Observation | Date Received | Frequency of Data7 | Frequency of Reporting7 | Frequency of Publication7 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rates | 12/03/08 | 12/05/08 | D | W | M |
| International Reserve Assets and Reserve Liabilities of the Monetary Authorities1 | 12/03/08 | 12/05/08 | W | W | M |
| Reserve/Base Money | 12/03/08 | 12/05/08 | W | W | M |
| Broad Money | 09/30/08 | 11/05/08 | M | M | M |
| Central Bank Balance Sheet | 11/28/08 | 12/05/08 | W | W | M |
| Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking System | 09/30/08 | 11/05/08 | M | M | M |
| Interest Rates2 | November 08 | 12/04/08 | M | M | M |
| Consumer Price Index | October 08 | 11/18/08 | M | M | M |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3—General Government4 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Revenue, Expenditure, Balance and Composition of Financing3—Central Government | September 08 | 10/22/08 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of Central Government and Central Government-Guaranteed Debt5 | 12/31/07 | 03/27/08 | A | A | A |
| External Current Account Balance | 2007 | 03/21/08 | A | SA | A |
| Exports and Imports of Goods and Services | 2007 | 03/21/08 | A | A | A |
| GDP/GNP | 2007 | 09/19/08 | A | SA | A |
| Gross External Debt | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| International Investment Position6 | 2007 | 10/09/2008 | A | A | A |
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Includes external gross financial asset and liability positions vis-à-vis nonresidents.
Daily (D); Weekly (W); Monthly (M); Quarterly (Q); Annually (A); Semi-annually (SA); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).
Assistance committed under the original framework is expressed in net present value (NPV) terms at the completion point, and assistance committed under the enhanced framework is expressed in NPV terms at the decision point. Hence these two amounts can not be added.
Under the enhanced framework, an additional disbursement is made at the completion point corresponding to interest income earned on the amount committed at the decision point but not disbursed during the interim period.
The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) provides 100 percent debt relief to eligible member countries that are qualified for the assistance. The debt relief covers the full stock of debt owed to the Fund as of end-2004 which remains outstanding at the time the member qualifies for such debt relief. The MDRI is financed by bilateral contributions and the Fund’s own resources, as well as the resources already disbursed to the member under the HIPC Initiative (see Section VII above).