Republic of Armenia
Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Module, Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessment Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

This paper presents the Republic of Armenia’s report on the Observance of Standards and Codes and detailed assessment using the data quality assessment framework. Armenia exceeds Special Data Dissemination Standard requirements for both periodicity and timeliness in releases of data on unemployment, general government operations, analytical accounts of the central bank, merchandise trade, international investment position, and population. Armenia meets periodicity and exceeds timeliness on production index, employment, wages, consumer price index, producer price index, central government operations, analytical accounts of the central bank, and merchandise trade.

Abstract

This paper presents the Republic of Armenia’s report on the Observance of Standards and Codes and detailed assessment using the data quality assessment framework. Armenia exceeds Special Data Dissemination Standard requirements for both periodicity and timeliness in releases of data on unemployment, general government operations, analytical accounts of the central bank, merchandise trade, international investment position, and population. Armenia meets periodicity and exceeds timeliness on production index, employment, wages, consumer price index, producer price index, central government operations, analytical accounts of the central bank, and merchandise trade.

I. Overall Assessment

1. Armenia subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) on November 7, 2003. Armenia is in observance of the SDDS, meeting the specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and the dissemination of advance release calendars. Appendix I provides an overview of Armenia’s dissemination practices compared to the SDDS. Armenia exceeds SDDS requirements for both periodicity and timeliness in releases of data on unemployment, general government operations, analytical accounts of the central bank, merchandise trade, international investment position, and population. Armenia meets periodicity and exceeds timeliness on production index, employment, wages, consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), and central government operations, analytical accounts of the central bank, and merchandise trade.

2. In applying the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), the remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions on the quality of the five macroeconomic datasets, using the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF July 2003). The presentation is done at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions and across datasets for the remaining four. Section II provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-part scale. This is followed by staff recommendations in Section III. This report assesses these datasets against the requirements of the SDDS using the July 2003 version of the DQAF. It is a reassessment of the data module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for Armenia conducted during August 30 to September 11, 2000 against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) on the basis of the prototypical version of the DQAF available in that year. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents.

3. The 2000 data ROSC noted that Armenia’s data dissemination practices met or, in many cases, exceeded the recommendations of the GDDS. In the interval since the last assessment, Armenia began participation in the GDDS on March 28, 2001, and subscribed to the SDDS in 2003, as noted above. Practices have been strengthened in all dimensions of the July 2003 DQAF. The report contains the following main observations. In general, the statistical agencies comprising Armenia’s statistical system show relative strengths in most elements of the Prerequisites of Quality and Assurances of Integrity dimensions of the DQAF. All of the datasets considered showed strengths in concepts and definitions, assessment of source data, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, revision studies, periodicity and timeliness, consistency, revision policy and practice, and assistance to users. It is notable that the government finance statistics show substantial accomplishment in meeting, by 2008, the classification requirements of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) for central government. The plans for improvement of the Ministry of Finance and Economy (MFE) envisage further significant progress within the next two years in implementing the GFSM 2001 classification for local government in 2009 and in accrual recording for all units of general government in 2010. The commendably high cross-dataset consistency of the system means that a few instances of incomplete implementation of concepts in one dataset propagate to the others, and makes more critical the need for all sector datasets to adhere closely to the most recent international statistical standards.

4. Prerequisites of quality. The Armenian data-producing agencies rely on a well-designed legal and institutional framework providing a solid foundation for the datasets assessed in this report. Since the 2000 data ROSC, the Law On Official Statistics of 2002, as amended since, clearly positions the National Statistical Service (NSS) as the country’s central executive statistical agency. As such, the NSS has the leading role in coordinating the activities of other producers of official statistics, including the MFE and the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), primarily through a three-year program of statistical development and annual statistical plans that are embedded in the budgetary process as part of a 2004 Government Decree. The NSS is experiencing higher than desirable staff turnover as a result of low compensation levels. Budgeted resources for the MFE and CBA are broadly commensurate with the existing statistical programs for the data categories under review. The Armenian statistical system maintains relevance through wide consultation by the NSS of some 100 major users of statistics in drafting the medium-term and annual statistical programs. User communities also have an established consultative role through the State Council on Statistics (SCS), whose members represent the various fields for which the NSS produces statistics.

5. Assurances of Integrity. Professionalism is supported through six-year terms for the NSS President and the SCS, exceeding the five-year term of the President of the Republic, who has appointment authority for these positions. This supports the independence of the NSS from political influence over its technical decisions. Independence of the statistical functions of the MFE and CBA are protected in the Budget System Law of 1997 and Treasury System Law of 2002, respectively, as well as the 1996 Law of the Central Bank. Staff are well qualified and trained. They are exposed to international statistical fora, except the staff compiling balance of payments. The CBA human resource policy is particularly notable. Transparency is assured by public access to the text of legislation governing the statistical system on the NSS, MFE, and CBA websites, a strict simultaneous data-release policy prescribing early releases to officials outside the compiling agencies, and proper attribution of statistics to the responsible agency in all government publications. Ethical standards for the staff are prescribed in the 2002 Civil Service Law for the NSS and MFE, and in the CBA’s Code for Employees.

6. Methodological Soundness. All evaluated datasets adhere closely to internationally standard concepts and definitions. Inclusion of one bank headquarters as well as Armenian banks’ branches in Karabagh causes the scope of the economic territory used for financial corporations in the monetary statistics to differ from that of the other datasets. This affects not only monetary and financial statistics, but also the government finance, national accounts, and balance of payments statistics. Classification and sectorization follow international guidelines. Exceptions to this are that implementation of the Classification of Products by Activity for the producer price index (PPI) is still in progress and the chart of accounts of local governments will not follow the GFSM 2001 until 2009. The cash basis for recording of general government transactions differs from the recommended accrual basis, affecting the national accounts, government finance, and balance of payments aggregates. General government statistics on an accrual basis are planned for 2010.

7. Accuracy and Reliability. Source data meet the requirements of statistical outputs for all datasets except national accounts, which use some sources compiled cumulatively through the year, rather than discretely, period by period. There also is insufficient coverage in the balance of payments sources on financial assets issued by non residents and held by residents, both domestically and abroad. All agencies follow good practice in assessing source data for measurement and compilation errors. Statistical techniques follow good international practice, except for the national accounts, CPI, and balance of payments. The statistical techniques used in the national accounts for owner-occupied housing, consumption of fixed capital, agricultural work in progress, and volume of net exports could be improved. CPI techniques for estimating prices and weights for the housing expenditures of owner occupants need improvement. Balance of payments uses out of date c.i.f./f.o.b. factors for merchandise trade. Assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs and use of revision studies to inform data source development, statistical techniques, and compilation methods meet requirements for all datasets except there are no revision studies for government finance statistics.

8. Serviceability. Periodicity and timeliness meet or exceed SDDS requirements for all datasets. Datasets are generally consistent internally, over time, and between institutional sectors All datasets have a well-defined and consistently implemented revision policy, except balance of payments statistics, where only a brief explanation of revisions is provided.

9. Accessibility. Data disseminated in Armenian use formats, including well-labeled tables and charts, that facilitate interpretation. Although users broadly considered the CBA website easy to navigate and as having adequate content, the existing NSS site was seen as difficult to search. NSS was testing a substantially improved website at the time of the data ROSC, however. Metadata accessibility was considered adequate on all websites, with the exception of balance of payments on the NSS website, where metadata were considered insufficiently comprehensive. All agencies do a good job of assisting users across all of the evaluated datasets.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

10. Assessment of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, CPI, PPI, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics—were conducted using the DQAF, July 2003 version. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements and using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ac. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3af.

Table 1.

Armenia: Data Quality Assessment Framework (July 2003)—Summary Results

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Practice observed: Current practices generally meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. Practice largely observed: Some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: Significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: Most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: Used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.
Table 2a.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—National Statistical Service

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Table 2b.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Finance and Economy

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Table 2c.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Central Bank of Armenia

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Table 3a.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Consumer Price Index

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Table 3c.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Producer Price Index

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Table 3d.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3e.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3f.

Armenia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

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III. Staff’s Recommendations

11. Based on the review of Armenia’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission has developed a set of recommendations. They are designed to increase further Armenia’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of Armenia’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

Cross-cutting recommendations

  • Increase the resources of the NSS to retain qualified staff as well as improve office facilities and computing resources to meet increasing statistical demands.

  • For national accounts, government finance, monetary and financial, and balance of payments statistics, exclude data on bank headquarters and branches located in Karabagh.

  • International users of statistics would be better served by posting more, and more timely, English content on the NSS and MFE websites.

  • Time series with a fixed reference period should be part of the standard set of published tables for national accounts.

National accounts

  • Make adjustments to data on general government outlays, taxes, and subsidies to approximate data on an accrual basis.

  • Improve the accuracy of the quarterly source data by requesting collection of sub-annual data on a discrete basis for all economic statistics surveys.

  • Implement sound statistical techniques to be in accordance with the international guidelines for volume measures of imports and exports, for estimating the consumption of fixed capital and owner-occupied dwellings.

Consumer price index

  • Develop an approach to covering household expenditures on owner-occupied dwellings for either consumption (rental value), capital formation (net acquisition cost), or both.

Producer price index

  • Continue implementation of the Classification of Products by Activities to classify products in the PPI.

Government finance statistics

  • Implement a process for users to provide feedback to the MFE compilers of government finance statistics on perceived problems with the quality or usefulness of data.

  • Align the chart of accounts of municipalities and local governments to GFSM 2001 requirements.

  • Include the NCO in the government finance statistics data published on the national websites.

  • Produce a financial balance sheet of the general government.

  • Follow through on the plan to implement GFSM classifications for recording local government transactions by 2009 and accrual recording for central and local government transactions by 2010.

  • Use market value, rather than face value, for financial assets other than loans and for nonfinancial assets.

Balance of payments statistics

  • Produce balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) statistics for the financial corporations sector that exclude the bank headquarters and branches located in Karabagh from the Armenian economic territory.

  • Update c.i.f./f.o.b. factors for international trade in goods.

  • Improve source data for financial assets issued by non residents and held by residents both domestically and abroad.

  • Along with revised data, provide users of statistics with a more detailed analysis of major revisions due to changes in methods, introduction of additional source data, and adjustments.

  • Provide text and graphs to facilitate interpretation of balance of payments/IIP data disseminated in publications.

  • Publish more comprehensive metadata on sources, methods, and adjustments.

Appendix I. Armenia: Practices Compared to the SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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Italics indicate recommended or encouraged categories.

Given that the data are broadly disseminated by private means, the timeliness with which official data are disseminated is not critical.

Republic of Armenia: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Module, Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessment Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)
Author: International Monetary Fund