Central African Republic: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria, Request for Interim Assistance Under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, and Financing Assurances Review Informational Annex

This report examines the Central African Republic’s Third Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and request for waivers of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria. Global food price hikes and fuel price volatility jeopardize growth, inflation, and the balance of payments. Fiscal performance has been as expected, and all quantitative performance criteria (PC) have been met except for the PC on external arrears and on net credit from commercial banks. Demand for timber has declined, and the unstable domestic security situation has reduced diamond exports.

Abstract

This report examines the Central African Republic’s Third Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and request for waivers of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria. Global food price hikes and fuel price volatility jeopardize growth, inflation, and the balance of payments. Fiscal performance has been as expected, and all quantitative performance criteria (PC) have been met except for the PC on external arrears and on net credit from commercial banks. Demand for timber has declined, and the unstable domestic security situation has reduced diamond exports.

Appendix I. Central African Republic: Relations with the Fund

(As of October 31, 2008)

I. Membership Status: Joined: 07/10/1963; Article VIII

II. General Resources Account:

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III. SDR Department:

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IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans:

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V. Latest Financial Arrangements:

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VI. Projected Payments to the Fund (without HIPC Assistance)7

(SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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VII. Implementation of HIPC Initiative:

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IX. Safeguards Assessments: The Bank of the Central African States (BEAC) is the regional central bank of the Central African States. The most recent safeguards assessment of the BEAC was completed on August 30, 2004. The assessment found that the Bank has implemented a number of measures to strengthen its safeguards framework since the 2001 safeguards assessment, and recommended further enhancements in the areas of external and internal audits, and financial reporting. Latest monitoring results indicate the existence of certain vulnerabilities including in the system of internal controls. These and other aspects of the BEAC safeguards framework will be reviewed in the context of the 2008 update safeguards assessment of BEAC that is underway.

Exchange Rate Arrangement

The Central African Republic is a member of a monetary association with a common central bank, the BEAC. The exchange system common to all members operates without restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. The CFA franc is pegged to the euro at the fixed rate of CFAF 655.957 = €1. On October 31, 2008, the rate of the CFA franc in terms of SDRs was SDR 1 = CFAF 765.272.

Article IV Consultations

The Central African Republic is currently on the standard 24-month cycle for Article IV consultations for program countries. The last Article IV consultation was concluded on September 28, 2007.

Resident Representative

The Fund’s office in Bangui reopened in October 2007 (after being closed in September 2003). The Resident Representative is Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro.

Table 1.

Central African Republic: Recent Technical Assistance

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Appendix II. Central African Republic: Joint Bank-Fund Work Program, 2008–09

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Appendix III. Central African Republic: Statistical Issues

1. Data provision has some shortcomings, but is broadly adequate for surveillance. Weaknesses persist and, to help address them, efforts have been underway to improve the national statistical system including through adopting a statistics law and setting up a National Statistical Board in 2001 and technical assistance in national accounts and government finance statistics. Issues of source data, compilation, and dissemination affect all sectors, but are particularly severe in the areas of the real sector, government finance, and external trade statistics.

2. The Central African Republic (CAR) has participated in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since June 2004.

Real sector

3. The compilation of national accounts is the responsibility of the General Directorate of Statistics and Economic and Social Studies (DGSEES) of the Ministry of Planning. In mid-2005, an STA expert in national accounts and a follow-up Central AFRITAC (AFC) visit in December 2007 found a serious resource gap at the DGSEES and recommended a number of measures, particularly the redeployment of resources to strengthen the national accounts area. There is an urgent need to develop source data, by conducting surveys, particularly for the subsistence agriculture sector, which represents an estimated 30 percent of the economy. In addition, estimates of activity in the informal sector are still based on a 1982 survey. The AFC has continued to assist the DGSEES to improve national accounts. Recent missions focused, in particular, on the preparation of the non-financial and financial sector accounts and updating the business registry. (Use of an outdated business registry has led to overestimates in the manufacturing sector.) Currently, work is ongoing on the treatment of source data for the compilation of the 2007 national accounts. With external assistance, work is ongoing to renovate the CPI including extending its coverage and updating of the expenditure weights.

Government finance statistics

4. In February 2004, an STA follow-up mission underscored the findings of a 1999 multisector statistics mission that the compilation of an analytically meaningful set of government finance statistics (GFS) is hampered by less than full coverage of all budgetary units. In order to re-establish a systematic compilation of GFS, substantial additional assistance would be required, notably in the area of Treasury accounting and expenditure management, with a view to producing reliable source data and improving the accuracy of, among other things, domestic arrears. The mission made specific recommendations toward this objective, and a subsequent April 2004 Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) mission confirmed and reinforced these recommendations. Assistance is currently provided by a resident FAD public expenditure management advisor.

5. A follow-up STA mission in mid-2005 reviewed developments and proposed further steps for improving the source data for the compilation of the government financial operations table (Tableau des Opérations Financières de l’État, TOFE) and for further development and use of the Treasury cash plan. The GFS are expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing work on a revised chart of accounts. Several Ministry of Finance staff participated in recent INS/STA and regional training courses in GFS and they have begun requesting technical assistance to compile both annual and high-frequency data via e-mail. On the basis of these communications, the GFS correspondent submitted data suitable for publication in the January 2009 issue of the International Financial Statistics (IFS).

Monetary accounts

6. The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) regularly reports monthly monetary, interest rate, and exchange rate statistics for the CAR and other Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) member countries for publication in IFS, but sometimes delays occur. Institutional coverage of the monetary statistics for the CAR is not fully comprehensive, and accuracy is affected by cross-border movements of currency among CEMAC member countries. Only 24 percent of banknotes issued in the CAR by the BEAC National Directorate remain in the territory: 54 percent circulate in Cameroon and about 11 percent in Chad, while currency in circulation in the CAR includes some 7 percent of banknotes from Cameroon, and about 4 percent of banknotes from each of Gabon, the Republic of Congo, and Chad.

7. The monetary and financial statistics (MFS) mission in October 2006 assisted the authorities in assessing consistency between government finance statistics (bank financing) and monetary statistics (net position of the government). The mission also provided guidance in migrating to the new Standardized Report Forms (SRFs) for the submission of monetary statistics to STA, and helped update the GDDS metadata for the financial sector posted on the Data Standard Bulletin Board. Key recommendations from the MFS mission included: (i) expansion of monetary statistics to include the largest microfinance institution in the country (Crédit mutuel de Centrafrique); (ii) finalization and implementation of the updated sectorized list of public entities to improve accuracy of monetary statistics and consistency with GFS; and (iii) verification of the reliability of source data reported by commercial banks through the new electronic reporting system.

8. In mid-2007, the BEAC started a project to migrate monetary statistics of member countries of the CEMAC to the methodology in the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). As a part of this project, a regional meeting was organized by the BEAC in December 2007 to finalize the mapping of source data from commercial banks to the MFSM concepts and framework. A STA staff member participated in the meeting to provide guidance and advice. However, the BEAC has yet to submit test data using the SRFs for the CAR.

Balance of payments

9. As in other CEMAC countries, the agency responsible for the compilation of balance of payments statistics is the Balance of Payments Unit of the National Agency of the BEAC. Past delays with data compilation and dissemination, which were mainly related to the transition from the fourth to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, have been addressed through the recent implementation of methodological improvements. The last complete reporting, prepared by the National Balance of Payments Committee, covered 2002 annual data. Preliminary statements for 2003–05 are available from the National Agency of the BEAC office in Bangui, and have been transmitted to the African Department. No data have been reported for publication in the IFS since 1994.

10. Efforts have been made to improve the compilation system, including the development of a flexible questionnaire. Nonetheless, problems remain and the main issues concern data sources, including the need to update the BOP survey (list of respondents, reporting forms, and codification). Various methodologies or statistical techniques need to be reviewed, such as the computation of freight and insurance and procedures for attributing banknote movements among transactions.

External and domestic debt

11. External and domestic debt statistics are compiled by the Debt Directorate of the Ministry of Finance. There is scope to improve the quality of data and efforts are underway to verify with creditors the stock of external debt outstanding and of external arrears. Similarly, domestic debt data are of poor quality, due in part to the difficulty of monitoring the public expenditure chain from commitment to payment. However, the actual stock of government domestic arrears (up to end-2004) has been verified by a working group, with the help of a World Bank consultant, and a census of arrears accumulated during 2005–07 will be undertaken soon. The planned introduction of a government financial management information system should also help improve the monitoring of arrears. The reconciliation process with external creditors was completed in June 2007, with 99 percent of the multilateral, bilateral and commercial debt as of end-2006 reconciled. The Debt Directorate is currently seeking funding and technical expertise to upgrade their outdated debt data management software.

Table 2.

Central African Republic: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of November 18, 2008)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic non-bank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); Irregular (I); Not Available (NA)

7

When a member has overdue financial obligations outstanding for more than three months, the amount of such arrears will be shown in this section.

8

Assistance committed under the original framework is expressed in net present value (NPV) terms at the completion point, and assistance committed under the enhanced framework is expressed in NPV terms at the decision point. Hence, these two amounts cannot be added.

9

Under the enhanced framework, an additional disbursement is made at the completion point corresponding to interest income earned on the amount committed at the decision point but not disbursed during the interim period.

Central African Republic: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criteria, Request for Interim Assistance Under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, and Financing Assurances Review-Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Republic
Author: International Monetary Fund