South Africa: Selected Issues

This Selected Issues paper discusses the policy response by a sample of central banks to the ongoing oil and food price shocks in South Africa, drawing some lessons, which can help put in context developments in the country. The paper discusses first- and second-round effects of “supply shocks,” and attempts to gauge second-round effects in South Africa. The paper also analyzes the factors that have constrained South Africa’s growth since the end of apartheid, by comparing its GDP components and its saving and investment performance with those of a panel of faster-growing countries.

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper discusses the policy response by a sample of central banks to the ongoing oil and food price shocks in South Africa, drawing some lessons, which can help put in context developments in the country. The paper discusses first- and second-round effects of “supply shocks,” and attempts to gauge second-round effects in South Africa. The paper also analyzes the factors that have constrained South Africa’s growth since the end of apartheid, by comparing its GDP components and its saving and investment performance with those of a panel of faster-growing countries.

III. Can Fiscal Policy Boost Growth and Employment in South Africa?1

1. South Africa has made strong progress in the past few years, but unemployment and poverty persist. Good macroeconomic management and favorable external conditions have raised growth, lowered inflation for a while, strengthened public finances, and improved the external reserve position. The life of ordinary citizens has improved significantly, measured by indicators such as access to electricity and clean water, as well as reduction in child hunger. Still, unemployment and poverty remain high, especially in rural areas and townships.

2. The authorities aim to raise economic growth further to reduce high unemployment and deep-rooted poverty. The medium-term objectives of South Africa are ambitious: (i) achieve a 6 percent average growth in 2010–14; (ii) bring unemployment down to 14 percent by 2014 from 28 percent in 2004 and 23 percent in 2007. The strategy involves adopting policies conducive to higher growth and employment creation while sustaining macroeconomic and financial stability.

3. This paper analyzes the contribution fiscal policy can make toward achieving these objectives without compromising macroeconomic stability. The emphasis is on a deficit-neutral rebalancing of the revenue-expenditure mix in the medium term to improve incentives to invest and work and to create fiscal space for the most productive type of expenditure. The paper also explores the distributional implications of the proposed policies for high-income and low-income households.

4. The analytical tool chosen for this exercise is the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF). In this model, described in detail in Kumhof and Laxton (2007),2 fiscal policy can have strong and persistent effects on economic activity through realistic features such as: (i) two types of households—intertemporally-optimizing (overlapping-generations) and liquidity-constrained ones, generally corresponding to higher-and lower-income households.3 This feature strengthens the effects of fiscal policy changes through their large and immediate impact on liquidity-constrained households; (ii) finite planning horizon for the intertemporally-optimizing households, which leads to stronger discounting of future flows and thus gives more weight to current and near-term policies; and (iii) distortionary taxes on consumption, capital, and labor that affect saving, investment, and labor supply decisions. Built from extensive microfoundations, the model is particularly suitable for policy analysis owing to its rich structure, flexible and realistic menu of tax and expenditure instruments, and endogenous interaction between fiscal and monetary policies.

5. We have adapted the model to the South African environment. First, as workers at the bottom half of the income distribution (who are more likely to be liquidity-constrained) typically do not pay personal income tax in South Africa, liquidity-constrained households have been exempt from the scope of the labor tax in the model; moreover, they receive only a small share of the dividends paid by corporations as opposed to the higher-income households.4 Second, we introduce a wage subsidy received by the liquidity-constrained households, which is indeed being considered by the government in the context of a social security reform. Third, to account for the existence of a large pool of underutilized labor, willing to work at the prevailing wage rate should labor demand pick up, the labor supply elasticity of liquidity-constrained households with respect to wages has been raised significantly above that of the nonconstrained ones.5 Finally, the risk premium on international borrowing has been linked to both the current account deficit and the terms of trade, according to observed empirical regularities in South Africa. The model is calibrated to match South Africa’s historical national accounts and fiscal data.

6. The rule-based fiscal and monetary policies aim to smooth the economic cycle and maintain stability. Fiscal policy aims to stabilize the budget balance around a chosen structural target; cyclically higher/lower revenue lead to higher/lower target headline balance. Government consumption adjusts to achieve the target given the effect of economic activity on revenue. Monetary policy operates in an inflation-targeting framework, guided by the usual inflation-forecast-based rule where the policy interest rate responds gradually to deviation of projected inflation from the target and to the output gap.

7. In the model, fiscal policy affects medium-term growth through its effects on incentives to invest and work, and through improving productivity of private capital. Specifically, a cut in the tax on capital raises private return to capital and thus investment and labor demand. A cut in the tax on labor raises the marginal return to working and thus labor supply (a wage subsidy works the same way). On the expenditure side, rising public investment lifts the productivity of private capital and makes private investment more attractive, while a cut in government consumption works in the opposite direction, but with a much smaller force.

8 The paper explores two policy scenarios in support of growth and employment creation. The first scenario packages together policies aimed at raising the output growth rate, while the second adds policies specifically targeting a rise in employment as well.

  • Scenario I: Raising output growth.

    • Cut the corporate income tax rate by two percentage points (cost: 0.5 percentage points of GDP);

    • Raise public investment by one percentage point of GDP;

    • To maintain the targeted structural fiscal balance, close the resulting gap by:

      • Raising one percentage point of GDP through the planned introduction of mining royalties, thus capturing some of the economic rents provided by South Africa’s mineral endowment;6

      • Slowing the growth of government consumption (which remains positive in real terms) so that its ratio to GDP falls by about 0.5 percentage points.

  • Scenario II: Raising output growth and employment. The scenario employs the same policies as in Scenario I, plus:

    • Cut the average effective personal income tax rate by one percentage point to boost the supply of labor by income tax-paying workers (cost: 0.3 percentage points of GDP). To maximize the labor supply effect, the cut can be targeting the middle of the income tax scale, lowering the marginal tax rate of sought-after skilled workers and small businesses;

    • Introduce a 10 percent wage subsidy for low-skill, lower-income workers (cost: 1.2 percentage points of GDP, broadly matching the authorities’ estimate);

    • In addition to the introduction of mining royalties, these policies would be financed by an even slower growth in government consumption, so that its ratio to GDP drops by about 2 percentage points. This could be achieved by holding general government consumption constant in real terms for two years.

9. The main results are:

  • Scenario I: output moves to a higher equilibrium, and in the process growth increases by 0.5 percentage points a year on average in the first five years; during this period, employment increases by 0.4 percent, or about 52,000 positions, using the 2007 number of employees as a base (Figure III.1). The corporate income tax cut raises the profitability of private capital and boosts private investment and labor demand. The rising public investment reinforces this effect by allowing more output to be produced with the available capital and labor, i.e., raising total factor productivity. These positive effects outweigh, in terms of growth and employment, the reduction in private dividend income caused by the introduction of royalties in mining, and the cost of slower-growing government consumption. The effect of the royalties is responsible for the larger medium-term employment response of higher-income households (as well as their lower consumption growth), as the loss of dividend income motivates them to raise their supply of labor.7

  • Scenario II: results are predictably stronger, with growth increasing by 0.6 percentage points a year in the first five years and employment rising by nearly 1 percentage point, or 128,000 positions, as incentives to work are strengthened for both household groups (Figure III.2). In addition, consumption of liquidity-constrained households rises significantly, as the wage subsidy raises their disposable income akin to social safety net transfers. This partly explains why their labor response is not even stronger—the subsidy raises both their marginal and average income, so its income and labor/leisure substitution effects work in opposite directions.

  • What is the effect of the two employment-boosting policies—cutting the personal income tax and introducing the wage subsidy—in Scenario II? The income tax cut yields a gain of about 24,000 positions for the higher-income households (at fiscal cost of 0.3 percentage points of GDP in foregone revenue) and the wage subsidy delivers about 59,000 more positions for the lower-income households (at a net cost of 1 percentage point of GDP after netting out the revenue increase from the higher consumption generated by the subsidy). 8 9 While the personal income tax cut appears more efficient, it is worth stressing that the two policies are not substitutes, as each of them affects (and targets) only one of the two household groups. Still, the wage subsidy appears expensive for the size of its effect on employment.

  • Macroeconomic stability is preserved, as inflation and the current account deficit deviate little from equilibrium. Under both scenarios, monetary policy tightens early in response to the perceived opening positive output gap, but reverses course upon realization that output is rising permanently. Inflation hovers around equilibrium, checked by monetary policy’s strong reaction (Figures III.1 and III.2, middle-right panel). As domestic demand initially rises faster than output, spurred by the strong investment response, the current account balance declines slightly (Figures III.1 and III.2, middle-left panel). In the long run, it improves slightly but permanently relative to the initial equilibrium, as dividend payments to nonresidents are reduced by the royalties in the mining sector.

10. In conclusion, the analysis has found that notable growth and employment gains could be achieved by rebalancing the composition of fiscal revenue and expenditure without detriment to macroeconomic stability. In particular, cuts in the corporate income tax would stimulate private investment, while increases in public infrastructure investment would boost the productivity of the private capital stock, with beneficial effect on growth. Regarding employment, an appropriately targeted cut in the personal income tax would strengthen the incentive to work among higher-income workers, while the introduction of a wage subsidy would lower the take-home reservation wage required by low-income workers and thus raise their employment; however, the effect appears modest relative to the subsidy’s fiscal cost. An alternative use of these resources—to support continuing skill-enhancement programs to enable workers to take available higher-skill jobs—may result in bigger employment and wage gains for low-income households. Financing of the described policy package would be provided by slower growth in government consumption than so far, the forthcoming introduction of mining royalties, and possibly by the introduction of environment-friendly charges. Many of these policy measures are already in train—in particular the corporate income tax cut in 2008, the rise in public investment, and the introduction of an electricity levy—thus providing a solid foundation beneath South Africa’s sustainable medium-term growth rate.

Figure III.1.
Figure III.1.

Scenario I: Macroeconomic Effects of a Fiscal Policy Package Aimed at Raising Output Growth

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 347; 10.5089/9781451841060.002.A003

Source: IMF staff calculations.Note: Simulations run over 20 years; each tick mark corresponds to one year. The abbreviations OLG and LIQ denote the overlapping-generation (higher-income) consumers and the liquidity-constrained (lower-income) ones.
Figure III.2.
Figure III.2.

Scenario II: Macroeconomic Effects of a Fiscal Policy Package Aimed at Raising Output Growth and Employment

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 347; 10.5089/9781451841060.002.A003

Source: IMF staff calculations.Note: Simulations run over 20 years; each tick mark corresponds to one year. The abbreviations OLG and LIQ denote the overlapping-generation (higher-income) consumers and the liquidity-constrained (lower-income) ones.

South Africa: Tax Summary as of June 20081

(All amounts in South African rand)

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Updated by N. Gueorguiev, African Department, with the assistance of South African officials. For further information, see http://www.sars.gov.za or http://www.treasury.gov.za.

The average rate for 2002/03 was R 1.40 per R 100 of earnings.

Fuel excise rates are from April 4, 2008.

1

Prepared by Nikolay Gueorguiev.

2

Kumhof, M., and D. Laxton, 2007, “A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits”, IMF Working Paper 07/202 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

3

Throughout the paper, we will use interchangeably the term pairs overlapping-generations—higher-income households, and liquidity-constrained—lower-income households.

4

Even if they do not typically purchase equities directly, lower-income households could still own them indirectly, for example through employer-supported pension plans.

5

This parameterization allows large response of employment of liquidity-constrained workers to small changes in wages, approximating empirically observed absorption of excess labor at close to prevailing wages.

6

The introduction of royalties is modeled as an increase in the government’s share of dividends from the mining sector and a reduction in private resident and nonresident share. To the extent that mineral output prices are well above production costs, the negative effect of royalties on investment and output in the mining sector would be minimal. Should revenue from this source prove insufficient, the gap could be filled by environmentally-motivated indirect taxes and charges (an electricity levy, emissions charges, etc.), which are also being implemented or contemplated by the authorities.

7

In technical terms, the loss of dividend income forces these households to choose less of both consumption and leisure, the two arguments in their utility function.

8

These results are obtained by re-running Scenario II while excluding each of the two policies separately.

9

The estimate of a gain of 59,000 positions appears conservative, as the model does not allow for different labor intensity in the economy’s sectors. Using a more disaggregated computable general equilibrium model with 43 sectors and 9 different types of labor, a forthcoming World Bank study estimated that a 10 percent wage subsidy applied to 60 percent of the employees could raise overall employment by 2–4 percent.

South Africa: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund
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    Scenario I: Macroeconomic Effects of a Fiscal Policy Package Aimed at Raising Output Growth

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    Scenario II: Macroeconomic Effects of a Fiscal Policy Package Aimed at Raising Output Growth and Employment