The updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) confirms that The Gambia remains at high risk of debt distress after receiving HIPC and MDRI debt relief. In particular, the NPV of external debt-to-exports ratio remains above its threshold of 100 percent and standard stress tests show that The Gambia remains vulnerable to shocks to GDP and the exchange rate. The fiscal DSA shows public debt declining due to recent fiscal consolidation.
The last DSA was presented to the Fund Executive Board on December 19, 2007 (IMF Country Report No. 08/109, Appendix I) and to the World Bank Executive Board on December 20, 2007 (Enhanced HIPC Completion Point Document and MDRI, Report No. 41413-GM).
The debt relief agreement with the Islamic Development Bank has been negotiated and is in the process of being signed.
As outlined in the HIPC completion point DSA, outstanding debt at end-2007 before completion point is estimated at NPV US$439 million. Following completion point, HIPC assistance reduces the NPV of existing debt by US$92 million while MDRI results in an additional US$182.1 million reduction.
Defined as expenditures excluding interest payments and externally-financed projects.