Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: Staff Report for the 2008 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility—Informational Annex
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The 2008 Article IV Consultation with the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe and sixth review under the three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility discusses policies and exchange rate arrangement. In recent years, public finances have been supported by large oil signature bonuses, but exploratory drilling for oil has not yet confirmed the existence of commercially extractable reserves. Executive Directors supported the authorities’ intention to reconsider São Tomé and Príncipe’s monetary and exchange arrangements.

Abstract

The 2008 Article IV Consultation with the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe and sixth review under the three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility discusses policies and exchange rate arrangement. In recent years, public finances have been supported by large oil signature bonuses, but exploratory drilling for oil has not yet confirmed the existence of commercially extractable reserves. Executive Directors supported the authorities’ intention to reconsider São Tomé and Príncipe’s monetary and exchange arrangements.

Appendix I—Relations with Fund

(As of April 30, 2008)

I. Membership Status: Joined: September 30, 1977; Article XIV

II. General Resources Account:

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III. SDR Department:

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IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans:

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V. Latest Financial Arrangements:

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VI. Projected Payments to Fund

(SDR Million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs):

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VII. Implementation of HIPC Initiative:

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Assistance committed under the original framework is expressed in net present value (NPV) terms at the completion point, and assistance committed under the enhanced framework is expressed in NPV terms at the decision point. Hence these two amounts can not be added.

Under the enhanced framework, an additional disbursement is made corresponding to interest income earned on the amount of HIPC assistance committed but not disbursed

VIII. Implementation of Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI):

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The MDRI provides 100 percent debt relief to eligible member countries that qualified for the assistance. Grant assistance from the MDRI Trust and HIPC resources provide debt relief to cover the full stock of debt owed to the Fund as of end-2004 that remains outstanding at the time the member qualifies for such debt relief.

IX. Safeguards Assessments:

Under the Fund’s safeguards assessment policy, Central Bank of Sao Tome and Principe (BCSTP) was subject to a full safeguards assessment with respect to the PRGF arrangement approved on August 1, 2005. The assessment, which was completed on August 2, 2004, found vulnerabilities in the area of financial reporting, internal audit and internal control. Measures to strengthen the control framework and help safeguard Fund resources were proposed. Some recommendations have been implemented, including contracting annual external audits, endorsing plans to modernize the BCSTP’s internal audit function, and adopting International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as the bank’s accounting framework. Progress in the implementation of IFRS has been slow.

X. Exchange Arrangements:

The IMF classifies São Tomé and Príncipe’s exchange rate regime as managed floating with no pre-announced path for the exchange rate. The official exchange rate is determined daily as the sum of 40 percent of previous day’s selling rate quoted by commercial banks and 60 percent of previous day’s central bank selling rate. São Tomé and Príncipe’s exchange rate system has been liberalized in recent years and a number of exchange restrictions/multiple currency practices have been eliminated. In particular, current data indicate that there is no earmarking in foreign exchange to specific importers and a multiple currency practice resulting from the central bank’s auction system has been eliminated with the move to a single price auction.

Two measures subject to Fund approval remain: (i) a multiple currency practice and exchange restriction arise from the existence of multiple exchange markets with multiple effective exchange rates for spot transactions with no mechanism to ensure that the spreads among rates for spot transactions in these markets do not diverge by more than 2 percent at any given time; and (ii) an exchange restriction arises from Article 23(b) of the Investment Code which limits the amount of investment income that can be transferred abroad by nonresidents.

Under the PRGF-supported program, the BCSTP intends to revise, based on a careful review of the domestic market conditions in 2008, the mechanism for setting the daily official exchange rate and to establish a mechanism to keep the spread between the central bank rate and commercial bank exchange rate within 2 percentage points. The government is also committed to expedite the approval by the National Assembly of the new Investment Code which contains provisions aiming to eliminate the restrictions on transfers of dividends. The intervention currency for the dobra is the U.S. dollar. The official selling exchange rate was Db. 14,882 per U.S. dollar on April 30, 2008.

XI. Article IV Consultation:

The Executive Board concluded the last Article IV consultation with São Tomé and Príncipe on March 6, 2006.

XII. Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), Reports on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs), and Offshore Financial Center (OFC) Assessments:

None.

XIII. Technical Assistance:

March 2008: MCM mission on banking supervision

September 2007: STA mission on government finance statistics.

July 2007: STA mission on monetary and financial statistics.

July 2007: MCM mission on banking supervision

March 2007: FAD mission on public financial management.

March 2007: MCM mission on the foreign exchange market.

March 2007: STA mission on balance of payment statistics.

February 2007: LEG mission on tax laws.

November/December 2006: LEG mission on tax codes.

November/December 2006: MCM mission on banking supervision.

November/December 2006: MFD missions on foreign exchange market and monetary operations.

August 2006: MFD mission on banking supervision.

June 2006: MFD mission to assess implementation of technical assistance.

April/May 2006: STA mission on monetary and financial statistics.

February 2006: MFD mission on monetary operations and liquidity management.

January 2006: MFD mission on the foreign exchange market.

December 2005: LEG/MFD mission on the exchange system.

August/September 2005: MFD mission on banking supervision and foreign exchange operations.

February 2005: STA technical assistance mission on national accounts statistics.

January 2005: MFD mission on monetary operations and liquidity management.

December 2004: STA mission to advice on compilation and reporting of monetary statistics.

October 2004: STA technical assistance mission on government finance statistics.

September 2004: MFD multi-sector mission to develop foreign exchange and interbank money markets.

July–September 2004: MFD expert mission on banking supervision.

June 2004: STA technical assistance mission on balance of payments statistics.

July 2004: MFD expert mission on monetary operations.

June 2003: STA technical assistance mission on balance of payments statistics.

March and June 2003: STA technical assistance missions on national accounts statistics.

March 2003 and April 2004: Visits by MFD advisors on monetary policy and banking supervision.

March 2003: STA technical assistance mission on national accounts statistics.

January 1998–December 2001: MFD advisor on the conduct of monetary policy, banking supervision, and foreign exchange management.

June 2001: MFD mission on handling of banking crisis and foreign exchange market organization.

XIV. Resident Representative:

The Fund does not have a Resident Representative office in São Tomé and Príncipe since October 2006.

Appendix II—Relations with the World Bank Group Joint Managerial Action Plan (JMAP) for São Tomé and Príncipe

(As of April 30, 2008)

1. The IMF and World Bank São Tomé and Príncipe teams met on March 3, 2008 to discuss a joint managerial action plan, under this initiative. The team from the World Bank comprised Mr. Bell (lead economist) and Mr. Munoz (country economist) and from the IMF, Mr. Wang and Ms. Takebe

2. The World Bank’s work program entails moving forward with the following components: (i) Development Policy Operation of US$ 6 million to be approved by the Bank Board June 10, 2008; (ii) a Country Economic Memorandum to be delivered in FY09; and (iii) CAS Progress Report.

  • The two teams discussed the need to coordinate the up-coming joint products to be delivered in FY 08, the Joint Staff Assessment Note and the Debt Sustainability Analysis.

  • The two teams have agreed to coordinate missions to the extent possible and to meet regularly to update each other on progress.

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Appendix III—Relations with the African Development Bank Group

(As of April 21, 2008)

1. São Tomé and Príncipe became a member of the African Development Bank Group in 1976. To date, the Bank Group has financed 25 operations in the country. The net commitments amount to UA 90.4 million, 1 comprising UA 89.4 million of African Development Fund (ADF)2 and Technical Assistance Facility (TAF) resources and UA 1.00 million of Nigerian Trust Fund (NTF) resources. The sectors benefiting from AfDB Group financing are agriculture (26 percent), transport (25 percent), multi-sector3 (21 percent), social sector (17 percent), and public utilities (11 percent). These operations have helped build and rehabilitate basic economic and social infrastructure (roads, airport, electricity, water, schools, and health centers) and have strengthened São Tomé and Príncipe’s economic and institutional capacities. The AfDB has had a national program office since 1999.

2. The AfDB has two ongoing projects in human resource development and agriculture (the second phase of the livestock development project). These projects, in accordance with the PRSP, focus on the main factors affecting poverty. The disbursement rate was 35.20 percent as of August 2007. The two projects have started recently (2005 and 2006). The second phase of the livestock development project was approved in May 2006 and signed in July 2006. The human resource development project was signed in June 2003 and began in March 2005. This project tackles cross-sectoral capacity-building by providing for training in literacy, information, and community organization, as well as specialized vocational training adapted to specific demands, particularly in the oil and tourist sectors.

3. The AfDB Group assistance strategy for 2005–09 (Country Strategy Paper 2005–09) rests on two pillars: poverty reduction in rural area and promotion of governance in public finance management. The country allocation on ADF-X resources (2005–07) is UA 5.15 million in the form of grants. The first pillar will help promote and diversify the country’s economic base, especially the agricultural and rural sector, and reinforce operations in the social sectors. Under this pillar, the livestock development support project-phase II (UA 4 millions) was approved in May 2006. The second pillar will support macroeconomic reforms and governance, through an institutional support project on governance and a technical assistance on the PRSP process, which will help improve public finance management and institutional capacity building to prepare the country for the forthcoming oil era. Given the considerable needs for institutional capacity building, the AfDB will finance strategic economic and sector studies, such as the Country Governance Profile; the joint study with the World Bank on the integrated fiduciary assessment (PER/CFAA/CPAR); the transport sector study; and the insular costs study. Furthermore, the AfDB will finance regional capacity building initiatives, within CEMAC, ECCAS, the African Portuguese-speaking countries and the small insular countries.

4. In addition, the AfDB will continue to provide the country with financial assistance through the enhanced HIPC initiative. In April 2001 the AfDB approved debt relief of US$34.35 million in end 1999 NPV terms. In light of the delay in the HIPC process, the AfDB extended its interim debt relief period until the country reaches the completion point in May 2007 with an additional assistance (topping up) of US$ 9.08 million in end-2005 NPV terms.

Table 1.

Ongoing Projects as of April, 2008

(Millions of UA)1

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Exchange rate for August 2007 is UA 1 = US$1.53122

Appendix IV—Statistical Issues

Introduction

1. Although economic data are generally adequate for surveillance, serious financial, human, and technological resource constraints have slowed down efforts to strengthen the statistical system.

2. The country has participated in the Fund’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since April 20, 2004. The metadata and plans for improvement have not been updated since the original metadata were posted on the DSBB. Over the period 2003–06, the country has benefited from technical assistance from STA and other providers, largely under the GDDS project for Lusophone Africa.

National accounts

3. Statistics on GDP/GNP are compiled on a yearly basis and provided at the time of the Article IV consultation. STA provided technical assistance in national accounts to the National Statistics Institute in February and March 2005 and in January 2006 in the context of a GDDS project for Lusophone countries. Low response rates and/or insufficient rigor of the responses to the business surveys, including those from important enterprises, continue to affect the quality of the business data compiled.

4. A new GDP series for the period 2001-2006 with base year 2001 became available in early-2007. The new estimates cover: (i) GDP by production approach at current and constant prices; and (ii) cross-classification tables by industry sectors. The revised series reflect more accurately recent economic developments. Based on the most recent population census, corporation census, and living conditions survey, higher weights are now attributed to the sectors that experienced faster growth, such as trade, transportation and communication, and services. Despite the considerable upward revision in GDP, São Tomé and Príncipe remains a low income country, with GDP per capita amounting to about $771 in 2006, compared to $497 before this revision. While the revision of the GDP series is a significant improvement, a number of shortcomings remain. Further improvements would require input from a new household expenditure survey (rather than living conditions survey), using producer prices, and better estimates for agricultural production.

Consumer prices

5. Since 1997 the CPI weights have been based on a three-month household survey conducted in 1995. An updated and more comprehensive household expenditure survey is needed. Current price surveys only cover the capital, although there are plans to implement regional surveys.

Government finance statistics

6. Detailed revenue and expenditure data are compiled and reported to AFR. The main areas that need to be strengthened at the Ministry of Planning and Finance (MPF) are (i) monitoring of expenditures on projects financed by donors; and (ii) financing operations. All project loans financed by donors are programmed in the budget, but some are executed independently. The government has requested development partners to help in recording all external financing in the budget. The recording of financing operations and stocks is expected to improve since the debt data management capacity is expected to be strengthened.

7. An October 2004 government finance statistics (GFS) mission helped the MPF to compile and disseminate GFS for the general government in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001). The mission prepared bridge tables between national budget classification and GFSM 2001 classifications to be used to compile GFS for reporting to STA and AFR, as well as in MOF policy work. Given the importance of oil-related revenues, the mission also reviewed the classification of oil revenues under the Oil Revenue Management Law and made recommendations on classification of such transactions. A September 2007 follow-up mission found some progress with regard to the recommendations made by the 2004 mission. In particular, in January 2007 a new budget law was approved that significantly improved national budget classifications. Notwithstanding these efforts, faster statistical progress is hampered by an inadequate accounting system.

Monetary and financial statistics

8. STA missions provided technical assistance on monetary statistics in December 2004, April/May 2006, and June 2007. As a result, the accuracy and timeliness of the monetary data reported in the standardized report forms (SRF) for the central bank and the other depository corporations data have improved. However, the lags with which the Central Bank of São Tomé and Principe (BCSTP) reports monetary data based on the old reporting forms have increased again in recent months.

9. The missions found that the BCSTP monthly trial balance sheets were broadly adequate to compile monetary statistics in line with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). However, the plan of accounts of the other depository corporations is not adequate to derive monetary statistics consistent with the MFSM, particularly with regard to the sectorization of institutional units.

10. The June 2007 follow-up mission assisted in implementing the SRFs for reporting monetary and financial statistics to the Fund. The mission assisted in finalizing the SRFs beginning with March 2006 and December 2006 data for the BCSTP and Other Depository Corporations respectively. It also provided on-the-job-training to compilers. For the integrated monetary database that will meet the data needs of STA, AFR, and BCSTP to be finalized, STA needs to reconstruct the historical data starting from December 2001.

External sector statistics

11. There are significant weaknesses in the collection of source data related to merchandise trade. Some transactions, including certain imports related to investment, are not fully captured in the balance of payments (BOP). Monthly data on the main exports and imports are reported to AFR regularly but with some lags in recent months, and unit prices and volumes of exports are only occasionally included.

12. The GDDS Lusophone project has targeted a substantial improvement in the source data, including the response rate to the surveys, and in the methodology for compiling the BOP in line with the Fifth Edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. A June 2003 mission reviewed the shortcomings of reported current and financial account transactions and concluded that weaknesses were mainly due to under coverage, including of foreign direct investment and commercial bank reports on international transactions.

13. A June 2004 mission found that despite efforts to implement the previous recommendations, several measures, in particular those related to improving source data were at best partially implemented. As a result, inconsistencies in the classification of BOP operations persisted and certain components continued to be largely estimated. Resource constraints, particularly with regard to qualified staff, contribute to the lack of improvement in the response rate to surveys. The mission recommended improving coordination and data sharing among data-producing agencies, intensifying contacts with survey respondents, and using alternative sources to improve source data. A March 2007 mission found that little progress had been achieved in implementing recommendations of previous missions, primarily due to resource constraints in the BCSTP. The mission assisted the authorities in reconciling balance of payments data and outlined a set of recommendations and detailed work plan to improve compilation capacity.

14. In 2007, the central bank reported balance of payments data to STA for the years 2001-2003.

15. The authorities have built on previous efforts to strengthen debt data management, and a unit was created in late 2003 within the MOF. The authorities are reconciling debt records with creditors and the Commonwealth Secretariat debt recording and management system is being operationalized.

Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of April 31, 2008)

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Includes reserve asset pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Central bank’s reference rate

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic non-bank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra-budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D); weekly (W); monthly (M); quarterly (Q); annually (A); irregular (I); not available (NA).

1

The exchange rate for August 2007 is UA 1 = US$1.53122.

2

ADF is the concessional window (or grant for ADF-X for high debt countries), on the same conditions as IDA, of the African Development Bank Group.

3

Institutional support and structural adjustment programs.

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Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: 2008 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for Waivers of Performance Criteria-Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
Author:
International Monetary Fund