Abstract
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that rapid domestic demand growth in Ukraine pushed the economy beyond its capacity in 2007–08, leading to accelerating inflation. The demand expansion, fed by fiscal and income policies and a capital-inflow driven surge in money and credit growth, in combination with rising food and energy prices, gradually lifted CPI inflation to more than 30 percent by end-April 2008. Executive Directors have commended Ukraine’s continued strong economic growth and increased overall resilience to shocks. They have also expressed concern that some macroeconomic vulnerabilities have increased.
I. Introduction
1. Growth has been strong and Ukraine’s medium-term potential is enormous. Real GDP has grown by 7½ percent a year on average since 2000, in line with other CIS countries and higher than in most other transition economies. The economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of a doubling of imported natural gas prices and an uncertain political climate. The implementation of structural reforms would boost growth potential, allowing Ukraine to close the income gap with neighboring countries (Figure 1).
Ukraine: Potential Output and Structural Reforms
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 227; 10.5089/9781451839128.002.A001
Sources: Ukrainian authorities; IMF World Economic Outlook; International Energy Agency; EBRD; and staff estimates.1/ Measured in kilotonnes of oil equivalent per unit of purchasing-power-parity-adjusted GDP.2/ World Bank Doing Business indicators (2008). Ukraine's rank was transformed into an index, with 10 as the best and 0 the lowest value.
Ukraine: Potential Output and Structural Reforms
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 227; 10.5089/9781451839128.002.A001
Sources: Ukrainian authorities; IMF World Economic Outlook; International Energy Agency; EBRD; and staff estimates.1/ Measured in kilotonnes of oil equivalent per unit of purchasing-power-parity-adjusted GDP.2/ World Bank Doing Business indicators (2008). Ukraine's rank was transformed into an index, with 10 as the best and 0 the lowest value.Ukraine: Potential Output and Structural Reforms
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 227; 10.5089/9781451839128.002.A001
Sources: Ukrainian authorities; IMF World Economic Outlook; International Energy Agency; EBRD; and staff estimates.1/ Measured in kilotonnes of oil equivalent per unit of purchasing-power-parity-adjusted GDP.2/ World Bank Doing Business indicators (2008). Ukraine's rank was transformed into an index, with 10 as the best and 0 the lowest value.2. Since the last Article IV consultation, developments in Ukraine and globally have raised macroeconomic issues to the top of the policy agenda. High inflation and a widening current account deficit in Ukraine, together with global financial turbulence and slowing world growth, have increased short-term vulnerabilities. Recent progress on macroeconomic and structural reform has been uneven (Table 1), in large part reflecting protracted political uncertainties leading up to parliamentary elections last September. A new Orange coalition government came to power in December 2007, with a paper thin majority, and presidential elections are scheduled for the fall of 2009. The Article IV discussions were held during March 20-April 2, 2008 (Appendix I).
Reactions to IMF Advice
1/ See Ukraine: Ex-post Assessment of Long-Term Use of Fund Resources (2005), available at www.imf.org, for a discussion of the effectiveness of IMF advice over 1995-2005.
Reactions to IMF Advice
| Policy area | IMF advice | Authorities’ reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal policy | Maintain a general government deficit of about 2 percent of GDP, and save excess revenues; over time reduce the ratio of recurrent spending to GDP through a restrained incomes policy. | The deficit has been kept below 2 percent of GDP, but excess revenues have for the most part been spent. Wages and social transfers have grown at very rapid rates. |
| Monetary and exchange rate policy | Shift gradually to a flexible exchange rate regime, and ultimately, inflation targeting. | NBU agrees in principle, but change has been slow. TA has helped build up capacity in the NBU for such a move (see Table 13). |
| Financial sector policy | Raise capital and provisioning requirements for banks; amend legislation to increase sector transparency and to provide a stronger legal basis for crisis management. | Provisioning and minimum capital requirements have been raised, but the overall capital adequacy ratio has remained at 10 percent. Legal amendments have been stalled in parliament for several years. |
| Structural reforms | Accelerate implementation of the long list of measures highlighted by various IFIs. Recent Fund emphasis has been on trade reform; energy sector reform (price pass-through); tax system reform (VAT administration, base broadening and rate reductions); and financial sector development. | Strong consensus on trade reform has produced results (WTO accession), but progress in other areas has been limited, with a consensus on how to proceed yet to emerge. |
1/ See Ukraine: Ex-post Assessment of Long-Term Use of Fund Resources (2005), available at www.imf.org, for a discussion of the effectiveness of IMF advice over 1995-2005.
Reactions to IMF Advice
| Policy area | IMF advice | Authorities’ reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal policy | Maintain a general government deficit of about 2 percent of GDP, and save excess revenues; over time reduce the ratio of recurrent spending to GDP through a restrained incomes policy. | The deficit has been kept below 2 percent of GDP, but excess revenues have for the most part been spent. Wages and social transfers have grown at very rapid rates. |
| Monetary and exchange rate policy | Shift gradually to a flexible exchange rate regime, and ultimately, inflation targeting. | NBU agrees in principle, but change has been slow. TA has helped build up capacity in the NBU for such a move (see Table 13). |
| Financial sector policy | Raise capital and provisioning requirements for banks; amend legislation to increase sector transparency and to provide a stronger legal basis for crisis management. | Provisioning and minimum capital requirements have been raised, but the overall capital adequacy ratio has remained at 10 percent. Legal amendments have been stalled in parliament for several years. |
| Structural reforms | Accelerate implementation of the long list of measures highlighted by various IFIs. Recent Fund emphasis has been on trade reform; energy sector reform (price pass-through); tax system reform (VAT administration, base broadening and rate reductions); and financial sector development. | Strong consensus on trade reform has produced results (WTO accession), but progress in other areas has been limited, with a consensus on how to proceed yet to emerge. |
1/ See Ukraine: Ex-post Assessment of Long-Term Use of Fund Resources (2005), available at www.imf.org, for a discussion of the effectiveness of IMF advice over 1995-2005.
Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2003-09
Policies assumed here include: (i) a de facto exchange rate peg through 2009 and passive monetary policy in support of this; (ii) convergence of gas prices to European levels (adjusted for transit) by 2009; (iii) full pass-through of rising energy import prices; (iv) the free-play of automatic stabilizers in 2008 and a general government fiscal deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP in 2009; and (v) alignment of the minimum wage with the minimum subsistence level by end-2009.
Inflation excluding extreme price movements in the CPI components. The concept used here is the 65th percentile of the distribution of the monthly price changes.
The public finance aggregates cover the whole of the general government sector, including local authorities and the social funds. Reported fiscal outturns are also adjusted by staff to ensure consistency with international accounting rules.
From 2003 onward, based on an accounting treatment that excludes offset-based amortization to Russia, which decreases revenues and increases net external financing (and the budget deficit) by 0.1 percent of GDP relative to previous years.
The cyclically-adjusted balance estimates the government fiscal balance if output were at its potential level.
Government and government-guaranteed debt and arrears, plus NBU debt. Excludes debt by state-owned enterprises.
Annual GDP divided by end-period broad money (M3).
Period averages; (+) represents real appreciation; based on CPI inflation and IMF INS trade weights (1999-2001).
Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2003-09
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 Est. | 2008 Proj. 1/ | 2009 Proj. 1/ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real economy (percent change unless indicated otherwise) | |||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of hryvnias) | 267 | 345 | 441 | 544 | 713 | 939 | 1139 | ||
| Real GDP | 9.6 | 12.1 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 4.2 | ||
| Domestic demand (contribution) | 11.4 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 16.1 | 11.6 | 6.9 | ||
| Net exports (contribution) | -1.8 | 3.0 | -10.5 | -5.8 | -8.5 | -6.0 | -2.7 | ||
| Output gap | -1.0 | 3.3 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | -0.4 | ||
| Unemployment rate (ILO definition; percent) | 9.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.7 | ||
| Consumer prices (period average) | 5.2 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 12.8 | 23.2 | 16.4 | ||
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 8.2 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 16.6 | 18.5 | 13.2 | ||
| Core inflation (end of period) 2/ | 8.7 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 13.4 | 17.3 | 12.3 | ||
| Nominal monthly wages (average) | 23.0 | 27.5 | 36.7 | 29.2 | 29.7 | 39.3 | 27.0 | ||
| Real monthly wages (average) | 16.9 | 17.0 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 9.1 | ||
| Public finance (percent of GDP) 3/ | |||||||||
| Cash balance | -0.9 | -4.4 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.5 | ||
| Revenue 4/ | 38.0 | 37.1 | 41.8 | 43.7 | 42.3 | 43.9 | 43.7 | ||
| Expenditure (cash basis) | 38.9 | 41.5 | 44.1 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.1 | 45.2 | ||
| Primary balance (cash basis) | 0.1 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.8 | -1.2 | ||
| Cyclically adjusted balance 5/ | -0.4 | -6.0 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | -1.4 | ||
| Privatization proceeds | 1.1 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | ||
| Net domestic financing | -1.2 | -0.1 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | ||
| Net external financing | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | ||
| Public debt 6/ | 30.6 | 25.5 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 8.4 | ||
| Of which: external debt | 21.6 | 19.2 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 6.2 | ||
| Money and credit (end of period, percent change) | |||||||||
| Base money | 30.1 | 34.1 | 53.9 | 17.5 | 46.0 | 37.3 | 26.4 | ||
| Broad money | 46.5 | 32.3 | 54.4 | 34.5 | 51.7 | 38.9 | 27.1 | ||
| Credit to nongovernment | 61.5 | 31.6 | 61.9 | 70.7 | 74.0 | 40.1 | 31.1 | ||
| Velocity 7/ | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | ||
| Interbank overnight rate (annual average, percent) | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | … | … | ||
| Balance of payments (percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Current account balance | 5.8 | 10.6 | 2.9 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -7.1 | -9.8 | ||
| Foreign direct investment | 2.8 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | ||
| Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars) | 6.9 | 9.5 | 19.4 | 22.3 | 32.5 | 36.5 | 35.6 | ||
| In months of next year's imports of goods and services | 2.3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | ||
| Debt service (in percent of exports of goods and services) 5/ | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | ||
| Goods exports (annual volume change in percent) | 14.2 | 18.2 | -8.5 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 | ||
| Goods imports (annual volume change in percent) | 30.4 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 20.3 | 13.9 | 8.9 | ||
| Goods exports | 47.4 | 51.5 | 40.7 | 36.1 | 35.2 | 32.1 | 28.5 | ||
| Goods imports | 47.9 | 45.8 | 42.0 | 40.9 | 42.7 | 41.5 | 40.7 | ||
| Share of metals in merchandise exports (percent) | 35.8 | 39.0 | 40.1 | 42.2 | 37.4 | 35.6 | 36.1 | ||
| Net imports of energy (billions of U.S. dollars) | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 15.3 | 18.1 | ||
| Goods terms of trade (percent change) | 8.7 | 9.6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | -5.1 | ||
| Goods and services terms of trade (percent change) | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | -4.1 | ||
| Exchange rate | |||||||||
| Exchange rate regime | de facto peg | … | |||||||
| Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, end of period | 5.33 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.05 | … | … | ||
| Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, period average | 5.33 | 5.32 | 5.11 | 5.04 | 5.03 | … | … | ||
| Real effective rate, CPI-based (percent change) 8/ | -8.6 | -1.4 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 16.8 | 9.4 | ||
| Social indicators | |||||||||
| Per capita GDP: US$ 3,056 (2007); Poverty (percent of population): 8.0 (2006; World Bank estimate); | |||||||||
| Life expectancy at birth: 68.2 years (2006); Infant mortality (per 1,000): 14.0 (2004); Net primary enrollment (percent net): 86 (2004) | |||||||||
Policies assumed here include: (i) a de facto exchange rate peg through 2009 and passive monetary policy in support of this; (ii) convergence of gas prices to European levels (adjusted for transit) by 2009; (iii) full pass-through of rising energy import prices; (iv) the free-play of automatic stabilizers in 2008 and a general government fiscal deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP in 2009; and (v) alignment of the minimum wage with the minimum subsistence level by end-2009.
Inflation excluding extreme price movements in the CPI components. The concept used here is the 65th percentile of the distribution of the monthly price changes.
The public finance aggregates cover the whole of the general government sector, including local authorities and the social funds. Reported fiscal outturns are also adjusted by staff to ensure consistency with international accounting rules.
From 2003 onward, based on an accounting treatment that excludes offset-based amortization to Russia, which decreases revenues and increases net external financing (and the budget deficit) by 0.1 percent of GDP relative to previous years.
The cyclically-adjusted balance estimates the government fiscal balance if output were at its potential level.
Government and government-guaranteed debt and arrears, plus NBU debt. Excludes debt by state-owned enterprises.
Annual GDP divided by end-period broad money (M3).
Period averages; (+) represents real appreciation; based on CPI inflation and IMF INS trade weights (1999-2001).
Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2003-09
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 Est. | 2008 Proj. 1/ | 2009 Proj. 1/ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real economy (percent change unless indicated otherwise) | |||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of hryvnias) | 267 | 345 | 441 | 544 | 713 | 939 | 1139 | ||
| Real GDP | 9.6 | 12.1 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 4.2 | ||
| Domestic demand (contribution) | 11.4 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 16.1 | 11.6 | 6.9 | ||
| Net exports (contribution) | -1.8 | 3.0 | -10.5 | -5.8 | -8.5 | -6.0 | -2.7 | ||
| Output gap | -1.0 | 3.3 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | -0.4 | ||
| Unemployment rate (ILO definition; percent) | 9.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.7 | ||
| Consumer prices (period average) | 5.2 | 9.0 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 12.8 | 23.2 | 16.4 | ||
| Consumer prices (end of period) | 8.2 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 16.6 | 18.5 | 13.2 | ||
| Core inflation (end of period) 2/ | 8.7 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 13.4 | 17.3 | 12.3 | ||
| Nominal monthly wages (average) | 23.0 | 27.5 | 36.7 | 29.2 | 29.7 | 39.3 | 27.0 | ||
| Real monthly wages (average) | 16.9 | 17.0 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 9.1 | ||
| Public finance (percent of GDP) 3/ | |||||||||
| Cash balance | -0.9 | -4.4 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.5 | ||
| Revenue 4/ | 38.0 | 37.1 | 41.8 | 43.7 | 42.3 | 43.9 | 43.7 | ||
| Expenditure (cash basis) | 38.9 | 41.5 | 44.1 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.1 | 45.2 | ||
| Primary balance (cash basis) | 0.1 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.8 | -1.2 | ||
| Cyclically adjusted balance 5/ | -0.4 | -6.0 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 | -1.7 | -1.4 | ||
| Privatization proceeds | 1.1 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | ||
| Net domestic financing | -1.2 | -0.1 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | ||
| Net external financing | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | ||
| Public debt 6/ | 30.6 | 25.5 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 8.4 | ||
| Of which: external debt | 21.6 | 19.2 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 6.2 | ||
| Money and credit (end of period, percent change) | |||||||||
| Base money | 30.1 | 34.1 | 53.9 | 17.5 | 46.0 | 37.3 | 26.4 | ||
| Broad money | 46.5 | 32.3 | 54.4 | 34.5 | 51.7 | 38.9 | 27.1 | ||
| Credit to nongovernment | 61.5 | 31.6 | 61.9 | 70.7 | 74.0 | 40.1 | 31.1 | ||
| Velocity 7/ | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | ||
| Interbank overnight rate (annual average, percent) | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | … | … | ||
| Balance of payments (percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Current account balance | 5.8 | 10.6 | 2.9 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -7.1 | -9.8 | ||
| Foreign direct investment | 2.8 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.5 | ||
| Gross reserves (end of period, billions of U.S. dollars) | 6.9 | 9.5 | 19.4 | 22.3 | 32.5 | 36.5 | 35.6 | ||
| In months of next year's imports of goods and services | 2.3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | ||
| Debt service (in percent of exports of goods and services) 5/ | 6.2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | ||
| Goods exports (annual volume change in percent) | 14.2 | 18.2 | -8.5 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 | ||
| Goods imports (annual volume change in percent) | 30.4 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 20.3 | 13.9 | 8.9 | ||
| Goods exports | 47.4 | 51.5 | 40.7 | 36.1 | 35.2 | 32.1 | 28.5 | ||
| Goods imports | 47.9 | 45.8 | 42.0 | 40.9 | 42.7 | 41.5 | 40.7 | ||
| Share of metals in merchandise exports (percent) | 35.8 | 39.0 | 40.1 | 42.2 | 37.4 | 35.6 | 36.1 | ||
| Net imports of energy (billions of U.S. dollars) | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 15.3 | 18.1 | ||
| Goods terms of trade (percent change) | 8.7 | 9.6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | -5.1 | ||
| Goods and services terms of trade (percent change) | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | -4.1 | ||
| Exchange rate | |||||||||
| Exchange rate regime | de facto peg | … | |||||||
| Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, end of period | 5.33 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.05 | … | … | ||
| Hryvnia per U.S. dollar, period average | 5.33 | 5.32 | 5.11 | 5.04 | 5.03 | … | … | ||
| Real effective rate, CPI-based (percent change) 8/ | -8.6 | -1.4 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 16.8 | 9.4 | ||
| Social indicators | |||||||||
| Per capita GDP: US$ 3,056 (2007); Poverty (percent of population): 8.0 (2006; World Bank estimate); | |||||||||
| Life expectancy at birth: 68.2 years (2006); Infant mortality (per 1,000): 14.0 (2004); Net primary enrollment (percent net): 86 (2004) | |||||||||
Policies assumed here include: (i) a de facto exchange rate peg through 2009 and passive monetary policy in support of this; (ii) convergence of gas prices to European levels (adjusted for transit) by 2009; (iii) full pass-through of rising energy import prices; (iv) the free-play of automatic stabilizers in 2008 and a general government fiscal deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP in 2009; and (v) alignment of the minimum wage with the minimum subsistence level by end-2009.
Inflation excluding extreme price movements in the CPI components. The concept used here is the 65th percentile of the distribution of the monthly price changes.
The public finance aggregates cover the whole of the general government sector, including local authorities and the social funds. Reported fiscal outturns are also adjusted by staff to ensure consistency with international accounting rules.
From 2003 onward, based on an accounting treatment that excludes offset-based amortization to Russia, which decreases revenues and increases net external financing (and the budget deficit) by 0.1 percent of GDP relative to previous years.
The cyclically-adjusted balance estimates the government fiscal balance if output were at its potential level.
Government and government-guaranteed debt and arrears, plus NBU debt. Excludes debt by state-owned enterprises.
Annual GDP divided by end-period broad money (M3).
Period averages; (+) represents real appreciation; based on CPI inflation and IMF INS trade weights (1999-2001).
Ukraine: Medium-Term Balance of Payments, 2005-13
(In million of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
Policies assumed here include: (i) a de facto exchange rate peg through 2009, followed by a gradually widening exchange rate corridor; (ii) passive monetary policy through 2009 as a result of foreign exchange interventions to defend the peg; (iii) convergence of natural gas import prices to Western European levels (adjusted for transit) by 2009; (iv) full pass-through of rising energy import prices; and (v) alignment of the minimum wage with the minimum subsistence level by end-2009.
Includes lease receipts and offsetting repayments under the Black Sea Fleet debt swap agreement.
Public and publicly-guaranteed debt, on a residency basis.
Ukraine: Medium-Term Balance of Payments, 2005-13
(In million of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | Projection 1/ | |||||||||||||
| Current account balance | 2,531 | -1,617 | -5,918 | -13,376 | -21,887 | -25,453 | -26,297 | -25,467 | -26,752 | |||||
| Merchandise trade balance | -1,135 | -5,194 | -10,572 | -17,618 | -27,258 | -30,325 | -31,538 | -33,318 | -33,634 | |||||
| Exports | 35,024 | 38,949 | 49,840 | 60,251 | 63,563 | 68,158 | 74,298 | 81,508 | 89,946 | |||||
| Imports | -36,159 | -44,143 | -60,412 | -77,869 | -90,821 | -98,483 | -105,836 | -114,826 | -123,580 | |||||
| Services (net) | 1,806 | 2,126 | 2,696 | 2,327 | 3,909 | 4,362 | 5,590 | 8,805 | 8,299 | |||||
| Receipts 2/ | 9,354 | 11,290 | 14,161 | 16,148 | 19,105 | 20,315 | 21,454 | 25,151 | 24,576 | |||||
| Payments | -7,548 | -9,164 | -11,465 | -13,821 | -15,196 | -15,953 | -15,864 | -16,346 | -16,277 | |||||
| Income (net) | -985 | -1,722 | -2,117 | -2,843 | -3,708 | -5,110 | -6,552 | -7,884 | -8,927 | |||||
| o/w: Interest on public debt 3/ | -623 | -892 | -1,001 | -1,104 | -1,105 | -1,108 | -1,212 | -1,350 | -1,705 | |||||
| Current transfers (net) | 2,845 | 3,173 | 4,075 | 4,758 | 5,170 | 5,620 | 6,203 | 6,930 | 7,511 | |||||
| Financial and capital account | 8,038 | 4,088 | 15,776 | 18,171 | 21,519 | 24,974 | 28,165 | 31,692 | 34,564 | |||||
| Direct investment and capital transfers (net) | 7,468 | 5,740 | 9,221 | 12,724 | 14,573 | 16,336 | 17,413 | 18,435 | 19,294 | |||||
| Portfolio investment (excluding government bonds) | 1,437 | 2,822 | 4,423 | 3,114 | 3,214 | 3,314 | 3,514 | 4,214 | 4,814 | |||||
| Bonds and medium and long-term loans (net) | 4,736 | 6,406 | 15,763 | 12,799 | 12,749 | 13,428 | 14,520 | 15,667 | 16,744 | |||||
| Private sector loans | 3,323 | 5,797 | 13,931 | 12,434 | 12,154 | 12,193 | 12,672 | 13,132 | 13,727 | |||||
| Bonds and loans (official) | 1,413 | 609 | 1,832 | 365 | 595 | 1,235 | 1,848 | 2,535 | 3,017 | |||||
| o/w: Disbursements | 3,384 | 3,239 | 4,244 | 1,227 | 1,953 | 2,811 | 3,185 | 3,338 | 3,564 | |||||
| Repayments 2/3/ | -1,971 | -2,630 | -2,412 | -862 | -1,358 | -1,576 | -1,337 | -802 | -547 | |||||
| o/w: Foreign-currency | 162 | 1,158 | 1,654 | 126 | 287 | 738 | 1,340 | 1,971 | 2,352 | |||||
| Domestic -currency | 1,251 | -549 | 178 | 239 | 308 | 497 | 508 | 564 | 665 | |||||
| Short-term capital (net) | -5,603 | -10,880 | -13,631 | -10,467 | -9,017 | -8,104 | -7,283 | -6,625 | -6,288 | |||||
| Errors and omissions | 152 | -42 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | |||||
| Overall balance | 10,721 | 2,429 | 9,395 | 4,331 | -832 | -942 | 1,404 | 5,761 | 7,349 | |||||
| Gross official reserves (- is increase) | -10,425 | -1,999 | -8,980 | -4,011 | 917 | 942 | -1,404 | -5,761 | -7,349 | |||||
| Net use of IMF resources | -296 | -430 | -415 | -320 | -85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||
| Total external debt 3/ | 38,657 | 52,803 | 79,550 | 97,749 | 115,294 | 133,326 | 152,993 | 174,551 | 197,209 | |||||
| Total external debt (In percent of GDP) | 44.9 | 48.9 | 56.2 | 52.1 | 51.6 | 52.8 | 57.2 | 61.6 | 64.7 | |||||
| Public external debt 3/ | 13,526 | 14,838 | 15,559 | 15,605 | 16,115 | 17,350 | 19,198 | 21,733 | 24,750 | |||||
| Public external debt (in percent of GDP) 3/ | 15.7 | 13.7 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | |||||
| Current account (in percent of GDP) | 2.9 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -7.1 | -9.8 | -10.1 | -9.8 | -9.0 | -8.8 | |||||
| Excluding transfers | -0.4 | -4.4 | -7.1 | -9.7 | -12.1 | -12.3 | -12.2 | -11.4 | -11.2 | |||||
| Debt service (in percent of exports of goods and services) 2/3/ | 4.9 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||
| o/w: Interest payments | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | |||||
| Gross international reserves (end of period) | 19,391 | 22,256 | 32,462 | 36,473 | 35,556 | 34,614 | 36,018 | 41,779 | 49,128 | |||||
| In months of next year’s imports of goods and services | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | |||||
| Over next year’s official debt service | 4.9 | 5.8 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 16.7 | 18.6 | … | |||||
| Merchandise export values (percent change) | 4.8 | 11.2 | 28.0 | 20.9 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | |||||
| Merchandise import values (percent change) | 21.8 | 22.1 | 36.9 | 28.9 | 16.6 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 7.6 | |||||
| Merchandise export volume (percent change) | -8.5 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | |||||
| Merchandise import volume (percent change) | 13.0 | 12.5 | 20.3 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | |||||
| Goods terms of trade (percent change) | 6.2 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | -5.1 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | |||||
| Goods and services terms of trade (percent change) | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | -4.1 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | |||||
Policies assumed here include: (i) a de facto exchange rate peg through 2009, followed by a gradually widening exchange rate corridor; (ii) passive monetary policy through 2009 as a result of foreign exchange interventions to defend the peg; (iii) convergence of natural gas import prices to Western European levels (adjusted for transit) by 2009; (iv) full pass-through of rising energy import prices; and (v) alignment of the minimum wage with the minimum subsistence level by end-2009.
Includes lease receipts and offsetting repayments under the Black Sea Fleet debt swap agreement.
Public and publicly-guaranteed debt, on a residency basis.
Ukraine: Medium-Term Balance of Payments, 2005-13
(In million of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. | Projection 1/ | |||||||||||||
| Current account balance | 2,531 | -1,617 | -5,918 | -13,376 | -21,887 | -25,453 | -26,297 | -25,467 | -26,752 | |||||
| Merchandise trade balance | -1,135 | -5,194 | -10,572 | -17,618 | -27,258 | -30,325 | -31,538 | -33,318 | -33,634 | |||||
| Exports | 35,024 | 38,949 | 49,840 | 60,251 | 63,563 | 68,158 | 74,298 | 81,508 | 89,946 | |||||
| Imports | -36,159 | -44,143 | -60,412 | -77,869 | -90,821 | -98,483 | -105,836 | -114,826 | -123,580 | |||||
| Services (net) | 1,806 | 2,126 | 2,696 | 2,327 | 3,909 | 4,362 | 5,590 | 8,805 | 8,299 | |||||
| Receipts 2/ | 9,354 | 11,290 | 14,161 | 16,148 | 19,105 | 20,315 | 21,454 | 25,151 | 24,576 | |||||
| Payments | -7,548 | -9,164 | -11,465 | -13,821 | -15,196 | -15,953 | -15,864 | -16,346 | -16,277 | |||||
| Income (net) | -985 | -1,722 | -2,117 | -2,843 | -3,708 | -5,110 | -6,552 | -7,884 | -8,927 | |||||
| o/w: Interest on public debt 3/ | -623 | -892 | -1,001 | -1,104 | -1,105 | -1,108 | -1,212 | -1,350 | -1,705 | |||||
| Current transfers (net) | 2,845 | 3,173 | 4,075 | 4,758 | 5,170 | 5,620 | 6,203 | 6,930 | 7,511 | |||||
| Financial and capital account | 8,038 | 4,088 | 15,776 | 18,171 | 21,519 | 24,974 | 28,165 | 31,692 | 34,564 | |||||
| Direct investment and capital transfers (net) | 7,468 | 5,740 | 9,221 | 12,724 | 14,573 | 16,336 | 17,413 | 18,435 | 19,294 | |||||
| Portfolio investment (excluding government bonds) | 1,437 | 2,822 | 4,423 | 3,114 | 3,214 | 3,314 | 3,514 | 4,214 | 4,814 | |||||
| Bonds and medium and long-term loans (net) | 4,736 | 6,406 | 15,763 | 12,799 | 12,749 | 13,428 | 14,520 | 15,667 | 16,744 | |||||
| Private sector loans | 3,323 | 5,797 | 13,931 | 12,434 | 12,154 | 12,193 | 12,672 | 13,132 | 13,727 | |||||
| Bonds and loans (official) | 1,413 | 609 | 1,832 | 365 | 595 | 1,235 | 1,848 | 2,535 | 3,017 | |||||
| o/w: Disbursements | 3,384 | 3,239 | 4,244 | 1,227 | 1,953 | 2,811 | 3,185 | 3,338 | 3,564 | |||||
| Repayments 2/3/ | -1,971 | -2,630 | -2,412 | -862 | -1,358 | -1,576 | -1,337 | -802 | -547 | |||||
| o/w: Foreign-currency | 162 | 1,158 | 1,654 | 126 | 287 | 738 | 1,340 | 1,971 | 2,352 | |||||
| Domestic -currency | 1,251 | -549 | 178 | 239 | 308 | 497 | 508 | 564 | 665 | |||||
| Short-term capital (net) | -5,603 | -10,880 | -13,631 | -10,467 | -9,017 | -8,104 | -7,283 | -6,625 | -6,288 | |||||
| Errors and omissions | 152 | -42 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | -463 | |||||
| Overall balance | 10,721 | 2,429 | 9,395 | 4,331 | -832 | -942 | 1,404 | 5,761 | 7,349 | |||||
| Gross official reserves (- is increase) | -10,425 | -1,999 | -8,980 | -4,011 | 917 | 942 | -1,404 | -5,761 | -7,349 | |||||
| Net use of IMF resources | -296 | -430 | -415 | -320 | -85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||||||
| Total external debt 3/ | 38,657 | 52,803 | 79,550 | 97,749 | 115,294 | 133,326 | 152,993 | 174,551 | 197,209 | |||||
| Total external debt (In percent of GDP) | 44.9 | 48.9 | 56.2 | 52.1 | 51.6 | 52.8 | 57.2 | 61.6 | 64.7 | |||||
| Public external debt 3/ | 13,526 | 14,838 | 15,559 | 15,605 | 16,115 | 17,350 | 19,198 | 21,733 | 24,750 | |||||
| Public external debt (in percent of GDP) 3/ | 15.7 | 13.7 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | |||||
| Current account (in percent of GDP) | 2.9 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -7.1 | -9.8 | -10.1 | -9.8 | -9.0 | -8.8 | |||||
| Excluding transfers | -0.4 | -4.4 | -7.1 | -9.7 | -12.1 | -12.3 | -12.2 | -11.4 | -11.2 | |||||
| Debt service (in percent of exports of goods and services) 2/3/ | 4.9 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||
| o/w: Interest payments | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | |||||
| Gross international reserves (end of period) | 19,391 | 22,256 | 32,462 | 36,473 | 35,556 | 34,614 | 36,018 | 41,779 | 49,128 | |||||
| In months of next year’s imports of goods and services | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | |||||
| Over next year’s official debt service | 4.9 | 5.8 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 16.7 | 18.6 | … | |||||
| Merchandise export values (percent change) | 4.8 | 11.2 | 28.0 | 20.9 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | |||||
| Merchandise import values (percent change) | 21.8 | 22.1 | 36.9 | 28.9 | 16.6 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 7.6 | |||||
| Merchandise export volume (percent change) | -8.5 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | |||||
| Merchandise import volume (percent change) | 13.0 | 12.5 | 20.3 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | |||||
| Goods terms of trade (percent change) | 6.2 | -0.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | -5.1 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | |||||
| Goods and services terms of trade (percent change) | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | -4.1 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | |||||
Policies assumed here include: (i) a de facto exchange rate peg through 2009, followed by a gradually widening exchange rate corridor; (ii) passive monetary policy through 2009 as a result of foreign exchange interventions to defend the peg; (iii) convergence of natural gas import prices to Western European levels (adjusted for transit) by 2009; (iv) full pass-through of rising energy import prices; and (v) alignment of the minimum wage with the minimum subsistence level by end-2009.
Includes lease receipts and offsetting repayments under the Black Sea Fleet debt swap agreement.
Public and publicly-guaranteed debt, on a residency basis.
Ukraine: Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2003-08
Overnight interbank rate. Monthly average for December or month of latest observation.
Moody's Investors Service. Note that Fitch and Standard & Poor's upgraded Ukraine from B+ to BB- in January and May 2005, respectively.
Period averages; (+) represents real appreciation; based on GDP deflator and IMF INS trade weights (1999-2001).
Does not include domestically issued public debt held by nonresidents.
Public sector covers the consolidated government. It excludes public enterprises. Public debt also includes arrears and debt by the central bank.
Overall balance plus debt amortization.
Estimated. Excludes debt to official creditors.
Ukraine: Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2003-08
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Latest observation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Market Indicators | ||||||||||||
| Short-term (ST) interest rate (in percent) 1/ | 9.3 | 16.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 14.5 | 29-Apr-08 | |||||
| EMBI secondary market spread (bps, end of period) | 275 | 264 | 184 | 172 | 303 | 333 | 30-Apr-08 | |||||
| Foreign currency debt rating 2/ | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | 30-Apr-08 | |||||
| Exchange rate NC/US$ (end of period) | 5.33 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.05 | 4.79 | 30-Apr-08 | |||||
| Stock market index (PFTS) | 85.4 | 260.1 | 353.0 | 498.9 | 1,174.0 | 855.2 | 25-Apr-08 | |||||
| Broad money to gross reserves (percent) | 256.9 | 249.1 | 199.1 | 234.9 | 247.4 | 250.5 | 31-Mar-08 | |||||
| External Sector | ||||||||||||
| Exchange rate regime | de facto peg to U.S. dollar | |||||||||||
| Current account balance (percent of GDP) | 5.8 | 10.6 | 2.9 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -7.1 | Proj | |||||
| Net FDI inflows (percent of GDP) | 2.8 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 6.8 | Proj | |||||
| Exports (percentage change of US$ value, GNFS) | 24.0 | 42.6 | 7.5 | 13.2 | 27.4 | 19.4 | Proj | |||||
| Real effective exchange rate, GDP deflator based (percent change) 3/ | -5.9 | 2.5 | 21.4 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 13.0 | Proj | |||||
| Gross international reserves (GIR) in US$ billion | 6.9 | 9.5 | 19.4 | 22.3 | 32.5 | 33.6 | 22-Apr-08 | |||||
| GIR in percent of ST debt at remaining maturity (RM) | 67.7 | 87.4 | 161.0 | 155.7 | 174.7 | 137.0 | Proj | |||||
| GIR in percent of ST debt at RM and banks’ FX deposits | 49.8 | 57.3 | 92.0 | 79.0 | 89.2 | 70.8 | Proj | |||||
| Net international reserves (NIR) in US$ billion | 5.1 | 8.0 | 18.2 | 21.4 | 32.1 | 33.1 | 31-Mar-08 | |||||
| Total gross external debt (ED) in percent of GDP | 47.6 | 47.3 | 44.9 | 49.6 | 56.2 | 52.1 | Proj | |||||
| o/w ST external debt (original maturity, in percent of total ED) | 38.5 | 34.2 | 32.6 | 32.3 | 32.0 | 29.7 | Proj | |||||
| ED of domestic private sector (in percent of total ED) | 54.5 | 58.1 | 65.0 | 71.9 | 80.4 | 84.0 | Proj | |||||
| ED to foreign official sector (in percent of total ED) | 22.7 | 17.8 | 16.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 5.8 | Proj | |||||
| Total public external debt (in percent of GDP) 4/ | 21.6 | 19.8 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 8.3 | Proj | |||||
| Domestically issued public debt held by non-residents (in percent of GDP) | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | Proj | |||||
| Total gross external debt in percent of exports of GNFS | 82.4 | 74.4 | 87.1 | 105.1 | 124.3 | 127.9 | Proj | |||||
| Gross external financing requirement (in US$ billion) | 8.4 | 6.4 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 18.3 | 23.9 | Proj | |||||
| Public Sector (PS) 5/ | ||||||||||||
| Overall balance (percent of GDP) | -0.9 | -4.4 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | Proj | |||||
| Primary balance (percent of GDP) | 0.1 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.8 | Proj | |||||
| Debt-stabilizing primary balance (percent of GDP) 4/ | -4.4 | -5.9 | -4.6 | -3.8 | -3.4 | -1.6 | Proj | |||||
| Gross PS financing requirement (in percent of GDP) 6/ | 4.4 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | Proj | |||||
| Public sector gross debt (PSGD, in percent of GDP) | 30.6 | 25.5 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 9.5 | Proj | |||||
| o/w Exposed to rollover risk (in percent of total PSGD) 7/ | 10.9 | 10.2 | 16.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | Proj | |||||
| Exposed to exchange rate risk (in percent of total PSGD) | 70.7 | 75.2 | 75.6 | 79.1 | 78.4 | 75.8 | Proj | |||||
| Public sector net debt (in percent of GDP) | 27.1 | 23.3 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 7.8 | Proj | |||||
Overnight interbank rate. Monthly average for December or month of latest observation.
Moody's Investors Service. Note that Fitch and Standard & Poor's upgraded Ukraine from B+ to BB- in January and May 2005, respectively.
Period averages; (+) represents real appreciation; based on GDP deflator and IMF INS trade weights (1999-2001).
Does not include domestically issued public debt held by nonresidents.
Public sector covers the consolidated government. It excludes public enterprises. Public debt also includes arrears and debt by the central bank.
Overall balance plus debt amortization.
Estimated. Excludes debt to official creditors.
Ukraine: Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2003-08
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Latest observation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Market Indicators | ||||||||||||
| Short-term (ST) interest rate (in percent) 1/ | 9.3 | 16.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 14.5 | 29-Apr-08 | |||||
| EMBI secondary market spread (bps, end of period) | 275 | 264 | 184 | 172 | 303 | 333 | 30-Apr-08 | |||||
| Foreign currency debt rating 2/ | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | B1 | 30-Apr-08 | |||||
| Exchange rate NC/US$ (end of period) | 5.33 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.05 | 4.79 | 30-Apr-08 | |||||
| Stock market index (PFTS) | 85.4 | 260.1 | 353.0 | 498.9 | 1,174.0 | 855.2 | 25-Apr-08 | |||||
| Broad money to gross reserves (percent) | 256.9 | 249.1 | 199.1 | 234.9 | 247.4 | 250.5 | 31-Mar-08 | |||||
| External Sector | ||||||||||||
| Exchange rate regime | de facto peg to U.S. dollar | |||||||||||
| Current account balance (percent of GDP) | 5.8 | 10.6 | 2.9 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -7.1 | Proj | |||||
| Net FDI inflows (percent of GDP) | 2.8 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 6.8 | Proj | |||||
| Exports (percentage change of US$ value, GNFS) | 24.0 | 42.6 | 7.5 | 13.2 | 27.4 | 19.4 | Proj | |||||
| Real effective exchange rate, GDP deflator based (percent change) 3/ | -5.9 | 2.5 | 21.4 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 13.0 | Proj | |||||
| Gross international reserves (GIR) in US$ billion | 6.9 | 9.5 | 19.4 | 22.3 | 32.5 | 33.6 | 22-Apr-08 | |||||
| GIR in percent of ST debt at remaining maturity (RM) | 67.7 | 87.4 | 161.0 | 155.7 | 174.7 | 137.0 | Proj | |||||
| GIR in percent of ST debt at RM and banks’ FX deposits | 49.8 | 57.3 | 92.0 | 79.0 | 89.2 | 70.8 | Proj | |||||
| Net international reserves (NIR) in US$ billion | 5.1 | 8.0 | 18.2 | 21.4 | 32.1 | 33.1 | 31-Mar-08 | |||||
| Total gross external debt (ED) in percent of GDP | 47.6 | 47.3 | 44.9 | 49.6 | 56.2 | 52.1 | Proj | |||||
| o/w ST external debt (original maturity, in percent of total ED) | 38.5 | 34.2 | 32.6 | 32.3 | 32.0 | 29.7 | Proj | |||||
| ED of domestic private sector (in percent of total ED) | 54.5 | 58.1 | 65.0 | 71.9 | 80.4 | 84.0 | Proj | |||||
| ED to foreign official sector (in percent of total ED) | 22.7 | 17.8 | 16.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 5.8 | Proj | |||||
| Total public external debt (in percent of GDP) 4/ | 21.6 | 19.8 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 8.3 | Proj | |||||
| Domestically issued public debt held by non-residents (in percent of GDP) | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | Proj | |||||
| Total gross external debt in percent of exports of GNFS | 82.4 | 74.4 | 87.1 | 105.1 | 124.3 | 127.9 | Proj | |||||
| Gross external financing requirement (in US$ billion) | 8.4 | 6.4 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 18.3 | 23.9 | Proj | |||||
| Public Sector (PS) 5/ | ||||||||||||
| Overall balance (percent of GDP) | -0.9 | -4.4 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | Proj | |||||
| Primary balance (percent of GDP) | 0.1 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.8 | Proj | |||||
| Debt-stabilizing primary balance (percent of GDP) 4/ | -4.4 | -5.9 | -4.6 | -3.8 | -3.4 | -1.6 | Proj | |||||
| Gross PS financing requirement (in percent of GDP) 6/ | 4.4 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | Proj | |||||
| Public sector gross debt (PSGD, in percent of GDP) | 30.6 | 25.5 | 18.7 | 15.7 | 12.5 | 9.5 | Proj | |||||
| o/w Exposed to rollover risk (in percent of total PSGD) 7/ | 10.9 | 10.2 | 16.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | Proj | |||||
| Exposed to exchange rate risk (in percent of total PSGD) | 70.7 | 75.2 | 75.6 | 79.1 | 78.4 | 75.8 | Proj | |||||
| Public sector net debt (in percent of GDP) | 27.1 | 23.3 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 7.8 | Proj | |||||
Overnight interbank rate. Monthly average for December or month of latest observation.
Moody's Investors Service. Note that Fitch and Standard & Poor's upgraded Ukraine from B+ to BB- in January and May 2005, respectively.
Period averages; (+) represents real appreciation; based on GDP deflator and IMF INS trade weights (1999-2001).
Does not include domestically issued public debt held by nonresidents.
Public sector covers the consolidated government. It excludes public enterprises. Public debt also includes arrears and debt by the central bank.
Overall balance plus debt amortization.
Estimated. Excludes debt to official creditors.
Ukraine: General Government Finances, 2004-09 1/
Based on state budget expenditure appropriations, IMF staff macroeconomic and revenue estimates, and IMF staff estimates of budget transfers necessary to fill financing gaps in the pension and social funds. The aggregates for the general government cover the whole of the general government sector, including local authorities and the social funds. The differences between staff's and the authorities' public finances numbers and projections also reflect accounting treatments to ensure consistency with international accounting rules.
Excludes US$ 100 million of non-cash property income paid annually by Russia in exchange for amortization of Ukraine's debt to Russia.
In 2005-06, adjusted for Hrv 2.3 billion in advanced pension payments paid in December 2005, and due in January 2006.
In 2004-06, includes pensions on army, interior, emergency services, penitentiary, tax police and security paid directly by the State budget. Administration of these payments was transferred to the Pension Fund in 2007.
Ukraine: General Government Finances, 2004-09 1/
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj | Proj | ||||||||
| General Gov’t | General Gov’t | General Gov’t | General Gov’t | General Gov’t | State Budget | General Gov’t | State Budget | |||
| (in millions of Hrv) | ||||||||||
| Revenue 2/ | 128,122 | 184,642 | 235,225 | 301,618 | 412,131 | 231,245 | 497,569 | 278,279 | ||
| Tax revenue | 108,000 | 159,707 | 204,721 | 263,394 | 361,623 | 191,821 | 438,679 | 231,290 | ||
| Personal income tax | 13,213 | 17,325 | 22,791 | 34,782 | 45,963 | 0 | 56,369 | 0 | ||
| Enterprise profit tax | 16,162 | 23,464 | 26,172 | 34,407 | 45,505 | 45,422 | 55,211 | 55,109 | ||
| Payroll tax | 36,220 | 49,477 | 61,919 | 82,733 | 111,626 | 0 | 135,886 | 0 | ||
| Property tax | 2,293 | 2,718 | 3,122 | 3,889 | 4,108 | 0 | 4,281 | 0 | ||
| VAT | 14,808 | 33,804 | 50,397 | 59,383 | 86,792 | 86,792 | 107,103 | 107,103 | ||
| Gross collections | 28,701 | 47,110 | 65,438 | 78,252 | 115,037 | 115,037 | 141,373 | 141,373 | ||
| Refunds | -13,894 | -13,306 | -15,041 | -18,869 | -28,245 | -28,245 | -34,270 | -34,270 | ||
| Other taxes on goods and services | 14,961 | 18,580 | 22,731 | 25,844 | 34,245 | 31,407 | 41,796 | 37,136 | ||
| Taxes on international trade | 5,067 | 6,722 | 7,373 | 10,038 | 15,226 | 15,226 | 17,906 | 18,906 | ||
| Other taxes | 5,276 | 7,617 | 10,216 | 12,317 | 18,159 | 12,975 | 20,127 | 13,035 | ||
| Nontax, capital revenue, and grants | 20,123 | 24,935 | 30,504 | 38,224 | 50,508 | 39,424 | 58,889 | 46,989 | ||
| State enterprise and NBU dividends | 2,243 | 5,410 | 4,580 | 3,217 | 5,862 | 5,734 | 7,113 | 6,957 | ||
| Ministry special resources | 11,579 | 10,797 | 15,247 | 18,712 | 20,978 | 14,600 | 24,452 | 16,714 | ||
| Other nontax | 6,300 | 8,729 | 10,677 | 16,296 | 23,668 | 19,090 | 27,325 | 23,318 | ||
| Expenditure | 143,327 | 194,672 | 242,652 | 315,852 | 423,145 | 240,766 | 514,967 | 293,609 | ||
| Current expenditures | 120,868 | 176,334 | 217,888 | 275,594 | 376,591 | 210,673 | 450,927 | 250,195 | ||
| Wages | 32,775 | 42,700 | 55,049 | 72,677 | 94,425 | 42,822 | 116,147 | 52,057 | ||
| Goods and services | 19,646 | 28,442 | 35,783 | 45,991 | 60,955 | 38,451 | 75,706 | 46,757 | ||
| Subsidies | 7,468 | 9,720 | 17,081 | 19,921 | 27,741 | 21,428 | 33,772 | 27,204 | ||
| Transfers | 57,768 | 92,159 | 106,535 | 133,326 | 189,720 | 102,970 | 221,413 | 119,021 | ||
| Pensions 3/4/ | 41,810 | 72,620 | 83,031 | 108,614 | 141,188 | 38,641 | 171,641 | 48,870 | ||
| Other | 15,958 | 19,539 | 23,504 | 24,712 | 48,532 | 64,329 | 49,772 | 70,151 | ||
| Interest | 3,210 | 3,312 | 3,440 | 3,679 | 3,750 | 5,003 | 3,890 | 5,155 | ||
| Domestic | 1,021 | 1,012 | 963 | 811 | 885 | 1,039 | 994 | 1,185 | ||
| Foreign | 2,189 | 2,300 | 2,477 | 2,868 | 2,865 | 3,963 | 2,895 | 3,970 | ||
| Capital spending | 20,665 | 18,111 | 24,536 | 38,683 | 44,481 | 28,093 | 61,524 | 40,987 | ||
| Net lending | 1,102 | 228 | 228 | 1,575 | 2,074 | 2,000 | 2,516 | 2,426 | ||
| Unallocated spending | 692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Overall balance (cash basis) | -15,205 | -10,030 | -7,427 | -14,233 | -11,014 | -9,521 | -17,398 | -15,329 | ||
| Overall balance (commitment basis) | -14,188 | -7,899 | -8,332 | -14,041 | -10,509 | -9,016 | -16,883 | -14,814 | ||
| Financing | 14,980 | 10,052 | 6,947 | 13,450 | 11,014 | 9,521 | 17,398 | 15,329 | ||
| External | 4,738 | 2,729 | 6,950 | 7,007 | 901 | 439 | 3,379 | 2,907 | ||
| Disbursements | 10,222 | 8,487 | 12,290 | 10,640 | 4,939 | 4,439 | 8,391 | 7,881 | ||
| Amortization 2/ | -5,484 | -5,759 | -5,340 | -3,633 | -4,037 | -4,000 | -5,012 | -4,974 | ||
| Domestic | -327 | -14,546 | -2,074 | 2,235 | -537 | 182 | 4,478 | 4,450 | ||
| Net Borrowing | 483 | -978 | -2,332 | 1,385 | 2,389 | 2,698 | 3,141 | 3,469 | ||
| Borrowing | 3,334 | 7,546 | 1,572 | 3,881 | 5,110 | 5,371 | 6,200 | 6,516 | ||
| Amortization | -2,851 | -8,524 | -3,904 | -2,496 | -2,721 | -2,672 | -3,059 | -3,047 | ||
| Other, incl. deposit finance | -810 | -13,567 | 258 | 850 | -2,926 | -2,517 | 1,337 | 980 | ||
| Privatization | 10,569 | 21,869 | 2,071 | 4,209 | 10,649 | 8,900 | 9,540 | 7,973 | ||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | 225 | -22 | 480 | 783 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 37.1 | 41.8 | 43.7 | 42.3 | 43.9 | 24.6 | 43.7 | 24.4 | ||
| Tax revenue | 31.3 | 36.2 | 38.1 | 36.9 | 38.5 | 20.4 | 38.5 | 20.3 | ||
| Personal income tax | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | ||
| Enterprise profit tax | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | ||
| Payroll tax | 10.5 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 0.0 | ||
| Property tax | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||
| VAT | 4.3 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | ||
| Gross collections | 8.3 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.4 | ||
| Refunds | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | ||
| Other taxes on goods and services | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | ||
| Taxes on international trade | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | ||
| Other taxes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | ||
| Nontax, capital revenue, and grants | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.1 | ||
| State enterprise and NBU dividends | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||
| Ministry special resources | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | ||
| Other nontax 2/ | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | ||
| Expenditure | 41.5 | 44.1 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.1 | 25.6 | 45.2 | 25.8 | ||
| Current expenditures | 35.0 | 39.9 | 40.5 | 38.7 | 40.1 | 22.4 | 39.6 | 22.0 | ||
| Wages | 9.5 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 10.1 | 4.6 | ||
| Goods and services | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | ||
| Subsidies | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | ||
| Transfers | 16.7 | 20.9 | 19.8 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 11.0 | 19.4 | 10.4 | ||
| Pensions 3/4/ | 12.1 | 16.5 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 4.1 | 15.1 | 4.3 | ||
| Other | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 6.2 | ||
| Interest | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | ||
| Domestic | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Foreign | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| Capital spending | 6.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | ||
| Net lending | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||
| Unallocated spending | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Overall balance (cash basis) | -4.4 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||
| Overall balance (commitment basis) | -4.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -2.0 | 1.1 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||
| Financing | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | ||
| External | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| Disbursements | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | ||
| Amortization 2/ | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | ||
| Domestic | -0.1 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||
| Net Borrowing | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| Borrowing | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | ||
| Amortization | -0.8 | -1.9 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||
| Other, incl. deposit finance | -0.2 | -3.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Privatization | 3.1 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Hrv million) | 345,113 | 441,452 | 544,153 | 712,945 | 938,762 | 938,762 | 1,138,986 | 1,138,986 | ||
Based on state budget expenditure appropriations, IMF staff macroeconomic and revenue estimates, and IMF staff estimates of budget transfers necessary to fill financing gaps in the pension and social funds. The aggregates for the general government cover the whole of the general government sector, including local authorities and the social funds. The differences between staff's and the authorities' public finances numbers and projections also reflect accounting treatments to ensure consistency with international accounting rules.
Excludes US$ 100 million of non-cash property income paid annually by Russia in exchange for amortization of Ukraine's debt to Russia.
In 2005-06, adjusted for Hrv 2.3 billion in advanced pension payments paid in December 2005, and due in January 2006.
In 2004-06, includes pensions on army, interior, emergency services, penitentiary, tax police and security paid directly by the State budget. Administration of these payments was transferred to the Pension Fund in 2007.
Ukraine: General Government Finances, 2004-09 1/
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prel. | Proj | Proj | ||||||||
| General Gov’t | General Gov’t | General Gov’t | General Gov’t | General Gov’t | State Budget | General Gov’t | State Budget | |||
| (in millions of Hrv) | ||||||||||
| Revenue 2/ | 128,122 | 184,642 | 235,225 | 301,618 | 412,131 | 231,245 | 497,569 | 278,279 | ||
| Tax revenue | 108,000 | 159,707 | 204,721 | 263,394 | 361,623 | 191,821 | 438,679 | 231,290 | ||
| Personal income tax | 13,213 | 17,325 | 22,791 | 34,782 | 45,963 | 0 | 56,369 | 0 | ||
| Enterprise profit tax | 16,162 | 23,464 | 26,172 | 34,407 | 45,505 | 45,422 | 55,211 | 55,109 | ||
| Payroll tax | 36,220 | 49,477 | 61,919 | 82,733 | 111,626 | 0 | 135,886 | 0 | ||
| Property tax | 2,293 | 2,718 | 3,122 | 3,889 | 4,108 | 0 | 4,281 | 0 | ||
| VAT | 14,808 | 33,804 | 50,397 | 59,383 | 86,792 | 86,792 | 107,103 | 107,103 | ||
| Gross collections | 28,701 | 47,110 | 65,438 | 78,252 | 115,037 | 115,037 | 141,373 | 141,373 | ||
| Refunds | -13,894 | -13,306 | -15,041 | -18,869 | -28,245 | -28,245 | -34,270 | -34,270 | ||
| Other taxes on goods and services | 14,961 | 18,580 | 22,731 | 25,844 | 34,245 | 31,407 | 41,796 | 37,136 | ||
| Taxes on international trade | 5,067 | 6,722 | 7,373 | 10,038 | 15,226 | 15,226 | 17,906 | 18,906 | ||
| Other taxes | 5,276 | 7,617 | 10,216 | 12,317 | 18,159 | 12,975 | 20,127 | 13,035 | ||
| Nontax, capital revenue, and grants | 20,123 | 24,935 | 30,504 | 38,224 | 50,508 | 39,424 | 58,889 | 46,989 | ||
| State enterprise and NBU dividends | 2,243 | 5,410 | 4,580 | 3,217 | 5,862 | 5,734 | 7,113 | 6,957 | ||
| Ministry special resources | 11,579 | 10,797 | 15,247 | 18,712 | 20,978 | 14,600 | 24,452 | 16,714 | ||
| Other nontax | 6,300 | 8,729 | 10,677 | 16,296 | 23,668 | 19,090 | 27,325 | 23,318 | ||
| Expenditure | 143,327 | 194,672 | 242,652 | 315,852 | 423,145 | 240,766 | 514,967 | 293,609 | ||
| Current expenditures | 120,868 | 176,334 | 217,888 | 275,594 | 376,591 | 210,673 | 450,927 | 250,195 | ||
| Wages | 32,775 | 42,700 | 55,049 | 72,677 | 94,425 | 42,822 | 116,147 | 52,057 | ||
| Goods and services | 19,646 | 28,442 | 35,783 | 45,991 | 60,955 | 38,451 | 75,706 | 46,757 | ||
| Subsidies | 7,468 | 9,720 | 17,081 | 19,921 | 27,741 | 21,428 | 33,772 | 27,204 | ||
| Transfers | 57,768 | 92,159 | 106,535 | 133,326 | 189,720 | 102,970 | 221,413 | 119,021 | ||
| Pensions 3/4/ | 41,810 | 72,620 | 83,031 | 108,614 | 141,188 | 38,641 | 171,641 | 48,870 | ||
| Other | 15,958 | 19,539 | 23,504 | 24,712 | 48,532 | 64,329 | 49,772 | 70,151 | ||
| Interest | 3,210 | 3,312 | 3,440 | 3,679 | 3,750 | 5,003 | 3,890 | 5,155 | ||
| Domestic | 1,021 | 1,012 | 963 | 811 | 885 | 1,039 | 994 | 1,185 | ||
| Foreign | 2,189 | 2,300 | 2,477 | 2,868 | 2,865 | 3,963 | 2,895 | 3,970 | ||
| Capital spending | 20,665 | 18,111 | 24,536 | 38,683 | 44,481 | 28,093 | 61,524 | 40,987 | ||
| Net lending | 1,102 | 228 | 228 | 1,575 | 2,074 | 2,000 | 2,516 | 2,426 | ||
| Unallocated spending | 692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Overall balance (cash basis) | -15,205 | -10,030 | -7,427 | -14,233 | -11,014 | -9,521 | -17,398 | -15,329 | ||
| Overall balance (commitment basis) | -14,188 | -7,899 | -8,332 | -14,041 | -10,509 | -9,016 | -16,883 | -14,814 | ||
| Financing | 14,980 | 10,052 | 6,947 | 13,450 | 11,014 | 9,521 | 17,398 | 15,329 | ||
| External | 4,738 | 2,729 | 6,950 | 7,007 | 901 | 439 | 3,379 | 2,907 | ||
| Disbursements | 10,222 | 8,487 | 12,290 | 10,640 | 4,939 | 4,439 | 8,391 | 7,881 | ||
| Amortization 2/ | -5,484 | -5,759 | -5,340 | -3,633 | -4,037 | -4,000 | -5,012 | -4,974 | ||
| Domestic | -327 | -14,546 | -2,074 | 2,235 | -537 | 182 | 4,478 | 4,450 | ||
| Net Borrowing | 483 | -978 | -2,332 | 1,385 | 2,389 | 2,698 | 3,141 | 3,469 | ||
| Borrowing | 3,334 | 7,546 | 1,572 | 3,881 | 5,110 | 5,371 | 6,200 | 6,516 | ||
| Amortization | -2,851 | -8,524 | -3,904 | -2,496 | -2,721 | -2,672 | -3,059 | -3,047 | ||
| Other, incl. deposit finance | -810 | -13,567 | 258 | 850 | -2,926 | -2,517 | 1,337 | 980 | ||
| Privatization | 10,569 | 21,869 | 2,071 | 4,209 | 10,649 | 8,900 | 9,540 | 7,973 | ||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | 225 | -22 | 480 | 783 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| (in percent of GDP) | ||||||||||
| Revenue | 37.1 | 41.8 | 43.7 | 42.3 | 43.9 | 24.6 | 43.7 | 24.4 | ||
| Tax revenue | 31.3 | 36.2 | 38.1 | 36.9 | 38.5 | 20.4 | 38.5 | 20.3 | ||
| Personal income tax | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | ||
| Enterprise profit tax | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | ||
| Payroll tax | 10.5 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 0.0 | ||
| Property tax | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||
| VAT | 4.3 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | ||
| Gross collections | 8.3 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.4 | ||
| Refunds | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.8 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | ||
| Other taxes on goods and services | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | ||
| Taxes on international trade | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | ||
| Other taxes | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | ||
| Nontax, capital revenue, and grants | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.1 | ||
| State enterprise and NBU dividends | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||
| Ministry special resources | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | ||
| Other nontax 2/ | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | ||
| Expenditure | 41.5 | 44.1 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.1 | 25.6 | 45.2 | 25.8 | ||
| Current expenditures | 35.0 | 39.9 | 40.5 | 38.7 | 40.1 | 22.4 | 39.6 | 22.0 | ||
| Wages | 9.5 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 10.1 | 4.6 | ||
| Goods and services | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | ||
| Subsidies | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | ||
| Transfers | 16.7 | 20.9 | 19.8 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 11.0 | 19.4 | 10.4 | ||
| Pensions 3/4/ | 12.1 | 16.5 | 15.4 | 15.2 | 15.0 | 4.1 | 15.1 | 4.3 | ||
| Other | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 6.2 | ||
| Interest | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | ||
| Domestic | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Foreign | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| Capital spending | 6.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | ||
| Net lending | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||
| Unallocated spending | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Overall balance (cash basis) | -4.4 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||
| Overall balance (commitment basis) | -4.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -2.0 | 1.1 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||
| Financing | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | ||
| External | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| Disbursements | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | ||
| Amortization 2/ | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | ||
| Domestic | -0.1 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||
| Net Borrowing | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| Borrowing | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | ||
| Amortization | -0.8 | -1.9 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||
| Other, incl. deposit finance | -0.2 | -3.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||
| Privatization | 3.1 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Memorandum items: | ||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (Hrv million) | 345,113 | 441,452 | 544,153 | 712,945 | 938,762 | 938,762 | 1,138,986 | 1,138,986 | ||
Based on state budget expenditure appropriations, IMF staff macroeconomic and revenue estimates, and IMF staff estimates of budget transfers necessary to fill financing gaps in the pension and social funds. The aggregates for the general government cover the whole of the general government sector, including local authorities and the social funds. The differences between staff's and the authorities' public finances numbers and projections also reflect accounting treatments to ensure consistency with international accounting rules.
Excludes US$ 100 million of non-cash property income paid annually by Russia in exchange for amortization of Ukraine's debt to Russia.
In 2005-06, adjusted for Hrv 2.3 billion in advanced pension payments paid in December 2005, and due in January 2006.
In 2004-06, includes pensions on army, interior, emergency services, penitentiary, tax police and security paid directly by the State budget. Administration of these payments was transferred to the Pension Fund in 2007.
Ukraine: Monetary Accounts, 2003-09
See assumptions in footnote 1 of Selected economic Indicators Table.
Projected NIR are at projected exchange rates.
Based on nominal GDP over the last four quarters.
Ukraine: Monetary Accounts, 2003-09
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | |||||
| Projection 1/ | |||||||||||
| Monetary Survey | (In millions of hryvnias) | ||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 26,886 | 43,877 | 81,842 | 66,717 | 50,978 | 27,655 | -11,979 | ||||
| (In millions of US dollars) | 5,043 | 8,270 | 16,206 | 13,211 | 10,095 | 5,423 | -2,349 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 68,448 | 81,828 | 112,229 | 194,346 | 345,179 | 522,662 | 711,164 | ||||
| Domestic credit | 87,912 | 107,923 | 144,892 | 247,037 | 436,285 | 612,044 | 808,000 | ||||
| Net claims on government | 15,692 | 13,509 | -7,180 | -7,821 | -6,658 | -8,389 | -5,482 | ||||
| Credit to the economy | 68,520 | 89,195 | 144,277 | 246,156 | 428,347 | 599,988 | 786,674 | ||||
| Other claims on the economy | 3,700 | 5,220 | 7,796 | 8,702 | 14,597 | 20,446 | 26,807 | ||||
| Other items, net | -19,464 | -26,095 | -32,663 | -52,691 | -91,107 | -89,382 | -96,836 | ||||
| Broad money | 95,334 | 125,705 | 194,071 | 261,063 | 396,156 | 550,317 | 699,185 | ||||
| Currency in circulation | 33,119 | 42,345 | 60,231 | 74,984 | 111,119 | 154,359 | 194,708 | ||||
| Total deposits | 61,484 | 83,138 | 132,914 | 184,430 | 280,154 | 389,173 | 495,858 | ||||
| Domestic currency deposits | 41,836 | 52,835 | 87,296 | 114,274 | 190,287 | 262,127 | 330,858 | ||||
| Foreign currency deposits | 19,648 | 30,303 | 45,617 | 70,155 | 89,867 | 127,047 | 165,001 | ||||
| Money market instruments | 731 | 222 | 925 | 1,650 | 4,884 | 6,784 | 8,619 | ||||
| Accounts of the National Bank of Ukraine | |||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 28,336 | 43,573 | 94,016 | 110,916 | 164,859 | 191,114 | 187,690 | ||||
| Net international reserves 2/ | 27,516 | 43,127 | 91,472 | 106,938 | 157,948 | 183,114 | 178,890 | ||||
| (In millions of U.S. dollars) | 5,161 | 8,129 | 18,113 | 21,176 | 31,277 | 35,905 | 35,076 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 11,753 | 10,190 | -11,256 | -13,702 | -22,958 | 11,735 | 67,382 | ||||
| Net domestic credit | 16,089 | 15,089 | -10,266 | -8,127 | -7,856 | -2,846 | 27,492 | ||||
| Net claims on government | 14,106 | 12,736 | -8,149 | -8,949 | -6,274 | -9,200 | -7,862 | ||||
| Claims on government | 19,079 | 18,001 | 10,315 | 9,676 | 9,058 | 9,058 | 9,058 | ||||
| Liabilities government | 4,973 | 5,264 | 18,464 | 18,625 | 15,332 | 18,258 | 16,920 | ||||
| Net claims on the economy | -40 | 41 | 76 | 169 | 165 | 165 | 165 | ||||
| Net claims on banks | 2,023 | 2,312 | -2,193 | 653 | -1,748 | 7,189 | 35,189 | ||||
| Other items, net | -4,336 | -4,899 | -991 | -5,575 | -15,102 | 14,580 | 39,890 | ||||
| of which: revaluation | -1,795 | -1,754 | |||||||||
| Base money | 40,089 | 53,763 | 82,760 | 97,214 | 141,901 | 194,849 | 246,272 | ||||
| Currency in circulation | 33,119 | 42,345 | 60,231 | 74,984 | 111,119 | 154,359 | 194,708 | ||||
| Banks’ reserves | 6,970 | 11,418 | 22,528 | 22,231 | 30,782 | 40,489 | 51,564 | ||||
| Cash in vault | 2,929 | 3,324 | 5,178 | 7,150 | 11,352 | 15,296 | 19,489 | ||||
| Required reserves | 4,364 | 5,862 | 9,853 | 4,080 | 9,683 | 15,008 | 19,122 | ||||
| Excess reserves | -322 | 2,232 | 7,498 | 11,001 | 9,748 | 10,185 | 12,953 | ||||
| Deposit Money Banks | |||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | -1,450 | 303 | -12,175 | -44,199 | -113,882 | -163,459 | -199,669 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 62,815 | 82,656 | 144,919 | 228,433 | 393,620 | 552,632 | 695,527 | ||||
| Domestic credit | 74,819 | 97,564 | 169,322 | 268,275 | 459,600 | 650,954 | 822,892 | ||||
| Net claims on government | 1,586 | 773 | 969 | 1,128 | -384 | 810 | 2,381 | ||||
| Credit to the economy | 68,482 | 89,050 | 144,129 | 245,973 | 428,146 | 599,788 | 786,474 | ||||
| Other claims on the economy | 3,700 | 5,220 | 7,796 | 8,702 | 14,597 | 16,056 | 17,662 | ||||
| Banks’ reserves | 6,970 | 11,418 | 22,528 | 22,231 | 30,782 | 40,489 | 51,564 | ||||
| Other items, net | -12,0040 | -14,9080 | -24,4020 | -39,842 | -65,981 | -98,322 | -127,365 | ||||
| Banks’ liabilities | 61,365 | 82,959 | 132,745 | 184,234 | 279,738 | 389,173 | 495,858 | ||||
| Demand deposits | 25,467 | 31,593 | 48,115 | 61,136 | 90,364 | … | … | ||||
| Time deposits | 35,898 | 51,366 | 84,629 | 123,098 | 189,374 | … | … | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||
| (Percentage change year-over-year) | |||||||||||
| Base money | 30.1 | 34.1 | 53.9 | 17.5 | 46.0 | 37.3 | 26.4 | ||||
| Broad money | 47.0 | 31.9 | 54.4 | 34.5 | 51.7 | 38.9 | 27.1 | ||||
| Credit to the economy | 63.4 | 30.0 | 61.9 | 70.7 | 74.0 | 40.1 | 31.1 | ||||
| (Ratio) | |||||||||||
| Velocity of broad money 3/ | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.27 | 2.08 | 1.80 | 1.71 | 1.63 | ||||
| Money multiplier | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 2.82 | 2.84 | ||||
| (In percent) | |||||||||||
| Foreign currency loans to total loans | 41.4 | 42.1 | 43.2 | 49.4 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 48.8 | ||||
| Foreign currency deposits to total deposits | 32.0 | 36.4 | 34.3 | 38.0 | 32.1 | 32.6 | 33.3 | ||||
See assumptions in footnote 1 of Selected economic Indicators Table.
Projected NIR are at projected exchange rates.
Based on nominal GDP over the last four quarters.
Ukraine: Monetary Accounts, 2003-09
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | Dec. | |||||
| Projection 1/ | |||||||||||
| Monetary Survey | (In millions of hryvnias) | ||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 26,886 | 43,877 | 81,842 | 66,717 | 50,978 | 27,655 | -11,979 | ||||
| (In millions of US dollars) | 5,043 | 8,270 | 16,206 | 13,211 | 10,095 | 5,423 | -2,349 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 68,448 | 81,828 | 112,229 | 194,346 | 345,179 | 522,662 | 711,164 | ||||
| Domestic credit | 87,912 | 107,923 | 144,892 | 247,037 | 436,285 | 612,044 | 808,000 | ||||
| Net claims on government | 15,692 | 13,509 | -7,180 | -7,821 | -6,658 | -8,389 | -5,482 | ||||
| Credit to the economy | 68,520 | 89,195 | 144,277 | 246,156 | 428,347 | 599,988 | 786,674 | ||||
| Other claims on the economy | 3,700 | 5,220 | 7,796 | 8,702 | 14,597 | 20,446 | 26,807 | ||||
| Other items, net | -19,464 | -26,095 | -32,663 | -52,691 | -91,107 | -89,382 | -96,836 | ||||
| Broad money | 95,334 | 125,705 | 194,071 | 261,063 | 396,156 | 550,317 | 699,185 | ||||
| Currency in circulation | 33,119 | 42,345 | 60,231 | 74,984 | 111,119 | 154,359 | 194,708 | ||||
| Total deposits | 61,484 | 83,138 | 132,914 | 184,430 | 280,154 | 389,173 | 495,858 | ||||
| Domestic currency deposits | 41,836 | 52,835 | 87,296 | 114,274 | 190,287 | 262,127 | 330,858 | ||||
| Foreign currency deposits | 19,648 | 30,303 | 45,617 | 70,155 | 89,867 | 127,047 | 165,001 | ||||
| Money market instruments | 731 | 222 | 925 | 1,650 | 4,884 | 6,784 | 8,619 | ||||
| Accounts of the National Bank of Ukraine | |||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 28,336 | 43,573 | 94,016 | 110,916 | 164,859 | 191,114 | 187,690 | ||||
| Net international reserves 2/ | 27,516 | 43,127 | 91,472 | 106,938 | 157,948 | 183,114 | 178,890 | ||||
| (In millions of U.S. dollars) | 5,161 | 8,129 | 18,113 | 21,176 | 31,277 | 35,905 | 35,076 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 11,753 | 10,190 | -11,256 | -13,702 | -22,958 | 11,735 | 67,382 | ||||
| Net domestic credit | 16,089 | 15,089 | -10,266 | -8,127 | -7,856 | -2,846 | 27,492 | ||||
| Net claims on government | 14,106 | 12,736 | -8,149 | -8,949 | -6,274 | -9,200 | -7,862 | ||||
| Claims on government | 19,079 | 18,001 | 10,315 | 9,676 | 9,058 | 9,058 | 9,058 | ||||
| Liabilities government | 4,973 | 5,264 | 18,464 | 18,625 | 15,332 | 18,258 | 16,920 | ||||
| Net claims on the economy | -40 | 41 | 76 | 169 | 165 | 165 | 165 | ||||
| Net claims on banks | 2,023 | 2,312 | -2,193 | 653 | -1,748 | 7,189 | 35,189 | ||||
| Other items, net | -4,336 | -4,899 | -991 | -5,575 | -15,102 | 14,580 | 39,890 | ||||
| of which: revaluation | -1,795 | -1,754 | |||||||||
| Base money | 40,089 | 53,763 | 82,760 | 97,214 | 141,901 | 194,849 | 246,272 | ||||
| Currency in circulation | 33,119 | 42,345 | 60,231 | 74,984 | 111,119 | 154,359 | 194,708 | ||||
| Banks’ reserves | 6,970 | 11,418 | 22,528 | 22,231 | 30,782 | 40,489 | 51,564 | ||||
| Cash in vault | 2,929 | 3,324 | 5,178 | 7,150 | 11,352 | 15,296 | 19,489 | ||||
| Required reserves | 4,364 | 5,862 | 9,853 | 4,080 | 9,683 | 15,008 | 19,122 | ||||
| Excess reserves | -322 | 2,232 | 7,498 | 11,001 | 9,748 | 10,185 | 12,953 | ||||
| Deposit Money Banks | |||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | -1,450 | 303 | -12,175 | -44,199 | -113,882 | -163,459 | -199,669 | ||||
| Net domestic assets | 62,815 | 82,656 | 144,919 | 228,433 | 393,620 | 552,632 | 695,527 | ||||
| Domestic credit | 74,819 | 97,564 | 169,322 | 268,275 | 459,600 | 650,954 | 822,892 | ||||
| Net claims on government | 1,586 | 773 | 969 | 1,128 | -384 | 810 | 2,381 | ||||
| Credit to the economy | 68,482 | 89,050 | 144,129 | 245,973 | 428,146 | 599,788 | 786,474 | ||||
| Other claims on the economy | 3,700 | 5,220 | 7,796 | 8,702 | 14,597 | 16,056 | 17,662 | ||||
| Banks’ reserves | 6,970 | 11,418 | 22,528 | 22,231 | 30,782 | 40,489 | 51,564 | ||||
| Other items, net | -12,0040 | -14,9080 | -24,4020 | -39,842 | -65,981 | -98,322 | -127,365 | ||||
| Banks’ liabilities | 61,365 | 82,959 | 132,745 | 184,234 | 279,738 | 389,173 | 495,858 | ||||
| Demand deposits | 25,467 | 31,593 | 48,115 | 61,136 | 90,364 | … | … | ||||
| Time deposits | 35,898 | 51,366 | 84,629 | 123,098 | 189,374 | … | … | ||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||
| (Percentage change year-over-year) | |||||||||||
| Base money | 30.1 | 34.1 | 53.9 | 17.5 | 46.0 | 37.3 | 26.4 | ||||
| Broad money | 47.0 | 31.9 | 54.4 | 34.5 | 51.7 | 38.9 | 27.1 | ||||
| Credit to the economy | 63.4 | 30.0 | 61.9 | 70.7 | 74.0 | 40.1 | 31.1 | ||||
| (Ratio) | |||||||||||
| Velocity of broad money 3/ | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.27 | 2.08 | 1.80 | 1.71 | 1.63 | ||||
| Money multiplier | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 2.82 | 2.84 | ||||
| (In percent) | |||||||||||
| Foreign currency loans to total loans | 41.4 | 42.1 | 43.2 | 49.4 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 48.8 | ||||
| Foreign currency deposits to total deposits | 32.0 | 36.4 | 34.3 | 38.0 | 32.1 | 32.6 | 33.3 | ||||
See assumptions in footnote 1 of Selected economic Indicators Table.
Projected NIR are at projected exchange rates.
Based on nominal GDP over the last four quarters.
Ukraine: Structural Reforms
Measures include those listed in the Ukraine-EU Action Plan, and World Bank, OECD, and Fund recommendations. The table does not include measures on the financial sector, which are covered separately.
denotes measures which are not part of the government programme.