This Selected Issues paper analyzes Senegal’s real effective exchange rate (REER) and external competitiveness. A REER significantly above its equilibrium, as determined by economic fundamentals, can impede a country’s external competitiveness, calling for corrective macroeconomic measures. This paper finds no conclusive evidence of a REER overvaluation, implying that structural reforms are key to improving Senegal’s external competitiveness. The paper also describes Senegal’s export performance, developments of the REER, and an empirical analysis of the equilibrium REER. Structural measures of competitiveness are also illustrated.

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper analyzes Senegal’s real effective exchange rate (REER) and external competitiveness. A REER significantly above its equilibrium, as determined by economic fundamentals, can impede a country’s external competitiveness, calling for corrective macroeconomic measures. This paper finds no conclusive evidence of a REER overvaluation, implying that structural reforms are key to improving Senegal’s external competitiveness. The paper also describes Senegal’s export performance, developments of the REER, and an empirical analysis of the equilibrium REER. Structural measures of competitiveness are also illustrated.

I. Senegal—Assessment of the REER and External Competitiveness1

A. Introduction

1. Senegal’s export performance has been far from impressive in recent years. The country has steadily lost its share in world export markets, and its net exports have contributed negatively to economic growth. Exports are not well diversified, mainly from the primary sector, and concentrated in products that have experienced below-average growth in volumes compared to world exports. These developments point toward a problem with external competitiveness and raise questions about the appropriateness of the real effective exchange rate (REER) and Senegal’s business environment.

2. This chapter analyzes Senegal’s REER and external competitiveness.2 A REER significantly above its equilibrium, as determined by economic fundamentals, can impede a country’s external competitiveness, calling for corrective macroeconomic measures. In the same vein, structural impediments in the economy, mainly with respect to the business environment, could hamper external competitiveness and depress export performance, which would require structural reforms to induce a diversification of exports into more promising areas.

3. This chapter finds no conclusive evidence of a REER overvaluation, implying that structural reforms are key to improving Senegal’s external competitiveness. The recent REER appreciation may nevertheless reflect rising production costs, which can be addressed through business environment reforms. Structural performance indicators suggest that substantial barriers to private sector development hinder Senegal’s external competitiveness. Reforms should focus on improving infrastructure, education, the provision of health services, the legal, regulatory, and administrative framework, labor markets, financial sector intermediation, and governance.

4. The remainder of the chapter is structured as follows. Senegal’s export performance is described in Section B. Section C describes developments of the REER, followed by an empirical analysis of the equilibrium REER in Section D, which applies a variety of econometric techniques with the fundamental real exchange rate approach and the macroeconomic balance approach. Structural measures of competitiveness are illustrated in Section E, followed by a concluding Section F with policy recommendations.

B. Senegal’s Export Performance

5. Senegal’s export sector performed poorly over the last two decades (Figure I.1). Strikingly, its share in world exports has been steadily eroding in both value and volume, with the 1994 CFA franc devaluation halting this process only briefly. In volume terms, Senegal’s share of world exports was almost 80 percentage points lower in 2007 than in 1995.

Figure I.1.
Figure I.1.

Market Shares, 1983-2007

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Sources: IMF staff estimates and UN Comtrade.

6. The 1994 CFA franc devaluation did not have a lasting effect on raising export performance (Figure I.2). This illustrates the limited scope of an exchange rate adjustment in boosting exports, if underlying structural obstacles continue to hamper business activity. At present, exports are only percent of GDP higher than they were in 1993, prior to the devaluation. While the devaluation boosted exports by over 10 percent of GDP initially, about half of this increase dissipated over the following years.

Figure I.2.
Figure I.2.

Export of Goods and Services, 1983-2007

(Percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Sources: IMF staff estimates.

7. Senegal’s exports are concentrated in products with below-average volume increases relative to world exports. Figure I.3 compares the volume and price growth of Senegal’s exports with that of world exports. The conclusions are striking:

  • None of Senegal’s main exports appear in the upper right-hand quadrant which shows the most competitive exports—i.e., those that have high market and price growth relative to world exports. Only fuel products appear in that category, but they represent re-exports of refined petroleum to Mali—and faced some supply-side difficulties, as discussed below.

  • Fish and phosphate exports benefited from price increases above world exports, but faced difficulties since their market growth is below that of average global exports. The situation for phosphoric acid appears to have improved since late 2007, with rising prices and demand.3

  • In contrast, groundnut oil exports (6 percent of total exports—Figure I.4) are even worse off, with below average price and market growth relative to global exports. The groundnut sector employs about half of the population.

Figure I.3.
Figure I.3.

Export Performance by Product, 1994-2006

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Sources: IMF staff estimates and UN Comtrade.
Figure I.4.
Figure I.4.

Exports by Products, 1994-2007

(Percent of total exports of goods)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Sources: IMF staff estimates.

8. Recent supply-side difficulties have hampered exports but are being overcome.

  • Production of refined fuel, one of Senegal’s few exports in high-demand markets, practically came to a halt during 2006–07 due to the financial difficulties faced by SAR, the state-owned petroleum company. However, SAR’s prospects are improving and production has resumed.

  • Senegal’s main producer of phosphate products, ICS, also faced serious financial difficulties during 2005–07 and is now in the process of recapitalization and restructuring. Production, which plummeted to one-third of capacity in 2006–07, is expected to pick up in the second half of 2008, reaching capacity by 2010.

  • Given the change in ocean currents and over-fishing, the supply of fish in easily attainable waters is rapidly declining. In addition, improvements in boats and equipment are needed to maintain exports are their current level.

C. Developments of the REER

9. Senegal’s REER has been broadly stable since the 1994 devaluation but appreciated somewhat since 2001 (Figure I.5 and I.6). As a result, its exports have become relatively more expensive on world markets. This appreciation has been driven by the appreciation of the euro, to which the CFA franc is pegged. Rising prices and production costs in Senegal relative to its major trading partners have also contributed to the REER appreciation:

  • The REER based on consumer price indices (CPI) has appreciated by over 10 percent since 2001. Half of that appreciation has been the consequence of recent surges in food and energy prices.

  • The REER based on unit labor costs (ULC) shows an even greater appreciation of more than 20 percent since 2001, owing to rapidly rising Senegalese labor costs. In recent years, the shortage of high-skilled labor, especially expatriates, has resulted in large increases of private sector salaries.4

  • The CPI-based REER is applied in the empirical analysis of this chapter, as it has a sufficiently long time series. The short time series of the ULC-based REER precludes its application in econometric analysis.

Figure I.5.
Figure I.5.

Consumer price index-based REER

(Index 1997=100)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Source: IMF staff estimates.
Figure I.6.
Figure I.6.

Senegal: Unit labor cost-based REER

(Index 1997=100)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Sources: World Bank; IMF estimates.

10. The actual extent of REER appreciation is likely to lie somewhere between the CPI-based REER and the ULC-based REER. The CPI-based REER may understate the growing cost of Senegal’s exports, since (i) consumer prices include the price of imported final goods which are unrelated to domestically produced goods; and (ii) controls on some utility and transport prices included in the CPI understate the cost of production in Senegal. On the other hand, the ULC-based REER may overstate the extent of REER appreciation, since labor costs are not the only costs of production.

D. Empirical Analysis of the Equilibrium REER

11. Comparisons of the actual REER with its equilibrium level may help identify macroeconomic imbalances. The equilibrium REER is one in which the economy is both in internal balance—low unemployment and low inflation—and external balance—defined as a sustainable long-term current account position.5 If a country faces a persistently high unemployment rate, or a persistently high current account deficit, a REER adjustment—through nominal exchange rate depreciation or subdued wage growth—is needed to restore the equilibrium. The fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) approach and the macroeconomic balance approach are applied to assess whether Senegal’s REER is overvalued relative to its equilibrium value.

FEER approach

12. The FEER approach assumes the equilibrium REER is a function of its fundamental determinants: the terms of trade, productivity, and investment. Openness and government consumption are also commonly applied fundamentals in the FEER analysis. For Senegal, these two variables turn out to be not quantitatively significant in estimating the equilibrium exchange rate and are excluded from the analysis. They may not be significant because of strong indirect effects on the REER. For example, openness may impact the REER through the terms of trade, and government consumption through productivity and government investment.

13. The expected relationships between the variables is as follows:

  • The REER and terms of trade are expected to be positively correlated. An increase in the terms of trade corresponds to increased demand and increased relative prices for domestically produced goods, resulting in a higher REER.

  • Productivity, a measure of technological progress proxied by real GDP per capita in Senegal relative to its trading partners, is also expected to be positively correlated with the REER. An increase in productivity raises relative wages, and thus relative prices, increasing the REER.

  • Investment, defined as the sum of private and public investment as a share of GDP, is expected to be negatively correlated with the REER. Given that Senegal has a high import content in investment, higher investment will increase import consumption, decreasing the REER.

14. The model is estimated by applying four econometric estimation techniques. These are the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Johansen, fully-modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG) approaches.6 Their specific features are as follows:

  • The ARDL and Johansen approaches estimate the equilibrium exchange rate based on time series data for Senegal. While the Johansen method is the classic approach for determining long-run relationships, it requires that all variables are integrated of order one. The ARDL approach, however, is independent of individual variables’ order of integration. Small-sample performance of the ARDL bounds testing approach has been shown to be superior to the conventional Johansen approach.

  • The FMOLS and PMG approaches estimate the equilibrium exchange rate for Senegal using information from panel data for all WAEMU countries. This allows for greater estimation precision, but the estimation results may be misleading to the extent that Senegal is different from other WAEMU countries. The model was estimated on annual data for the natural logs of the REER and its fundamentals over the period 1970–2007.7 The panel includes the corresponding data for all WAEMU countries.

15. The estimation results confirm the expected relationship between Senegal’s REER and its fundamentals (Table I.1).8 Improvements in productivity and the terms of trade appreciate the REER while increased investment depreciates it.

Table I.1:

FEER Parameter Estimation Results

article image
Sources: IMF staff calculations.

16. The FEER approach does not provide conclusive evidence of an overvaluation. The equilibrium REER for each year in the sample is calculated by fitting long-run values of each of the fundamentals to the parameter estimates from each estimation method.9 The resulting deviation bounds, showing the maximum percent deviation of the actual REER from the equilibrium REER under the different econometric techniques,10 are relatively large, albeit smaller in the post-1994 devaluation period (Figures I.7 and I.8):11,12

  • Prior to the 1994 devaluation, Senegal’s REER experienced a substantial overvaluation of between +15 percent and +75 percent.

  • Immediately after the devaluation, the deviation is estimated at between -15 percent to -45 percent.

  • Over the last decade, the deviation of the actual REER from its equilibrium has been relatively small. The deviation bounds do not provide conclusive evidence of an over-or undervaluation of the REER.13

  • During 2007, this trend continued, since the estimated deviation of the REER from its equilibrium ranged between -10 percent and +15 percent.14

Figure I.7.
Figure I.7.

Senegal: Actual and Equilibrium REER

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Source: IMF staff calculations.
Figure I.8.
Figure I.8.

Senegal: Exchange Rate Deviation Bounds

(in percent)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Source: IMF staff calculations.

Macroeconomic balance approach

17. The macroeconomic balance approach estimates the REER adjustment needed to close the gap between the projected current account balance, as implied by macroeconomic fundamentals, and its long-run equilibrium value. The current account (CA) balance implied by fundamentals is called the CA “norm.” It is derived in two steps:

  • an econometric estimation of the equilibrium relationship between the CA balance and its fundamentals for low-income countries; and

  • the application of the parameter estimates to Senegal’s medium-term fundamentals to obtain the CA norm for Senegal.

18. The long-run equilibrium CA balance, also called the underlying CA balance, is the CA balance stripped of all temporary factors, including imports associated with FDI. If the REER is perfectly aligned with its long-run value, then the CA norm will be the same as the underlying CA balance. Otherwise, the REER adjustment needed to bring the CA norm to the level of the underlying CA balance represents the deviation of the REER from its equilibrium value.15

19. The CA norm for Senegal is estimated to be 6 percent of GDP, and the underlying CA balance is 5 percent of GDP.

  • The CA norm was derived from the parameters estimated by regressing the CA on the following macroeconomic fundamentals for low-income countries (LICs): fiscal balance, net foreign assets relative to GDP, relative income, per-capita GDP growth, and population growth (Box I.1).

  • The underlying CA balance is the balance consistent with (i) historical trends prior to the recent large influx of FDI; and (ii) the forecast CA balance once stable levels of FDI and related export production are achieved.

20. The macroeconomic balance approach also does not provide conclusive evidence of an overvaluation. The analysis finds that a depreciation of less than 8 percentage points would close the gap between the norm and underlying CA balance.16 Qualitatively, this implies that the REER is above its equilibrium value. However, the small magnitude of REER deviation from its equilibrium and the statistical error associated with the estimation prevent a conclusive finding of an overvaluation.

Macroeconomic Balance Approach for Low-Income Countries

A key challenge of applying the macroeconomic balance approach to LICs lies in estimating an appropriate CA norm. The Fund’s Research Department has estimated the equilibrium relationship between the CA balance and its fundamentals for developed and emerging market economies. The application of these estimates to LICs would produce biased results due to sizeable differences in the economic dynamics between these countries and LICs.

For the purpose of deriving Senegal’s CA norm, the relationship between the CA balance and its fundamentals was estimated specifically for LICs. The fundamentals used were the fiscal balance, net foreign assets relative to GDP, relative income, per-capita GDP growth, and population growth. The LIC equilibrium CA relationship was estimated using a panel of 35 LICs over 1980–2005.1,2 The coefficient estimates (Table I.2) demonstrate the following:

  • An improvement in the ratio of the overall fiscal balance to GDP corresponds to a more positive CA balance.

  • An improvement in net foreign assets relative to GDP is also associated with a more positive CA balance.

  • However, increased per-capita GDP growth deteriorates the CA balance. Relative income and population growth are less significant, and are, respectively, positively and negatively correlated with the CA balance.

Future estimations of the CA balance equilibrium relationship could be improved by:

  • Filtering out high-frequency fluctuations, by taking four-year averages of the data to better reflect medium-term relationships across the variables.

  • Applying deviations from the averages of trading partners for the following variables: fiscal balance and population growth. This would eliminate current estimation biases arising from: (i) overestimation of the impact of an improved budget balance in situations where there is a worldwide budget balance improvement with little effect on the CA balance of individual countries; and (ii) underestimation of the impact of a higher share of economically dependent young people which reduces national savings and consequently decreases the CA balance.

1 The analysis is restricted to the period 1980–2005 to obtain as large a country sample as possible, with the goal of improving the precision of the CA norm coefficient estimates due to the within- and between- country variation. Earlier data are less reliable. The reliability of the results may be further improved by adjusting for global current account imbalances.2 Pooled OLS, random effects, and fixed effects models were estimated. A Hausman test rejects systematic differences between the random effects and fixed effects coefficient estimates.
Table I.2:

Estimation of CA on Fundamentals1/

article image
Source: IMF staff calculations.

Standard errors in brackets.

Other considerations

21. The empirical findings are complemented by developments that suggest limited concerns over the recent REER appreciation. Senegal’s sustainable debt position and a stable macroeconomic environment have succeeded in increasing investor confidence, reflected in the recent FDI surge. FDI has more than doubled in less than five years. However, the FDI stems from a small number of large multinationals in the areas of infrastructure, services, and natural resources. Structural improvements that ameliorate the business environment will be necessary to entice further and more diversified FDI.

E. Analysis of Structural Measures of Competitiveness

22. Senegal is ranked as one of the least competitive countries in the world. The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index ranks the country as 100 out of 131 countries in 2007 (Table I.3); Senegal was not ranked in 2006. Its stable macroeconomic and political environment, as well as technological readiness, rank relatively high, but the survey points toward a need to develop institutions, labor market efficiency, education, and infrastructure. In these areas, Senegal ranks well below other African countries, including Kenya and South Africa.

Table I.3.

Global Competitiveness Index 2007-08

(Out of 131 countries, best=1, worst=133)

article image
Source: World Economic Forum.

23. Firms face high costs of doing business. According to the World Bank’s Doing Business Report, in 2007–08 Senegal ranked 162 out of 178 countries in terms of the ease of doing business—below all WAEMU countries, except Guinea-Bissau and Niger (Figure I.9 and Table I.4). In comparison, Ghana and Kenya were ranked among the top ten global reformers. These countries excelled in reducing the financial cost and time spent to start a business, register property, pay taxes, and obtain credit. Senegal has begun improving its business environment, especially with respect to starting a business. The creation of a one-stop window in mid-2007 has shortened the duration to open a new business from 58 days to 48 hours, which should help improve Senegal’s ranking in the 2008–09 Doing Business Report. Notwithstanding such progress, property registration and obtaining credit remain cumbersome, while investors are provided little protection. These institutional hurdles discourage new firms from entering the market and make Senegal less attractive for private investment.

Figure I.9.
Figure I.9.

Doing Business Indicators 2007-08

(Out of 178 countries, 1=best, 178=worst)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Source: World Bank Doing Business Indicators.
Table I.4.

Doing Business Indicators: 2007-08 Relative to 2006-07

(- = improvement, + =deterioration)

article image
Source: World Bank Doing Business Indicators.

24. Human capital needs to be further developed through education. In 2007, Senegal ranked 156 out of 177 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), not improving much from its 2005 ranking of 157. Relative to other African countries, Senegal fares well in certain health-related social indicators, such as life expectancy and infant mortality. Lower adult literacy and enrollment ratios than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa, however, reveal poorer conditions for education (Table I.5).

Table I.5:

Social Indicators, 2005

article image
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2007); and UNDP, Human Development Report (2007).

25. Improved governance can also boost Senegal’s competitiveness. It has been shown that small improvements in governance can sharply improve a country’s competitiveness. For example, Wei (2000) finds that reducing the level of corruption in Mexico to that of Singapore would have the same impact as reducing the corporate income tax by 30 percent. Although Senegal ranks high in voice and accountability—measuring civil liberties, citizens’ participation in government selection, and government accountability towards citizens—in the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators, corruption and inefficient administration hold the country back (Figure I.10 and Table I.6). Over the past decade, rather than improving administrative efficiency and reducing corruption, Senegal’s position in these crucial areas has significantly deteriorated.

Figure I.10.
Figure I.10.

World Governance Indicators (2007)

(Best=100, Worst=0)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 221; 10.5089/9781451834093.002.A001

Source: World Bank World Governance Indicators.
Table I.6.

Changes in 2007 World Governance Indicators Relative to 1997

(In percentage points)

(+ = improvement, - = deterioration)

article image
Source: World Bank, World Governance Indicators.

F. Policy Implications and Conclusions

26. Given the absence of conclusive evidence of a REER overvaluation, policies to improve Senegal’s external competitiveness should concentrate on business environment reforms. Nonetheless, the REER needs to be carefully monitored going forward, as the recent appreciation, if continued, would make Senegal’s exports more expensive on world markets.

27. Survey-based competitiveness indicators point to various areas for reform in the business environment. Those reforms would set the stage for expanding and diversifying Senegal’s export base, improving product quality, and lowering production costs. They should be embedded in prudent macroeconomic policies that create a stable operating environment for the private sector. Specific measures should aim to improve infrastructure, education, the provision of health services, the legal, regulatory, and administrative framework, labor markets, financial sector intermediation, and governance.

28. The authorities have embarked on those reforms. For example, they are undertaking significant investment to modernize infrastructure in various areas, such as roads, airports, ports, and energy. Public spending on health and education, which boosts human capital development and labor productivity, is rising. The authorities are also strengthening the judicial system and easing administrative procedures that proved costly to entrepreneurs in the past, such as through the new one-stop window to start a business.

29. Overall, implementation of the reform agenda would lead to a more attractive business environment that fosters both domestic and international investment in both traditional and new exports. In the end, Senegal’s resilience to changing world prices and markets should be strengthened by these reform efforts.

References

  • Edwards, S. 1989, Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment: Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries (Cambridge: MIT Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2006, “Methodology for CGER Exchange Rate Assessments,” available at www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2006/110806.pdf. (Washington: IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johansen, S., 1988, “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 23154.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johansen, S., 1991, “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models,Econometrica, Vol. 59, pp. 155180.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johansen, S., 1995, Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models (United Kingdom: Oxford University Press).

  • Pedroni, P., 2000, “Fully-Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panelsin Advances in Econometrics: Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Vol.15, pp. 93150.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pesaran, M.H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, 1999, “Pooled Mean-Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogenous Panels,Journal of the American Statistical Association, No. 94, pp. 62134.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pesaran, M.H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith,, 2001, “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships,Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, pp. 289326.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roudet, S., M. Saxegaard, and C. Tsangarides (2007), “Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the WAEMU: A Robustness Approach,IMF Working Paper 07/194, Washington DC.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wei, S., 2000, “How Taxing Is Corruption on International Investors?Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82 (February), pp. 111.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Williamson J. (1994), “Estimates of FEERs,in Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Institute of International Economics, John Williamson, Editor.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2007a, Doing Business 2008, (Washington: World Bank Doing Business Project) http://rru.worldbank.org/DoingBusiness/.

  • World Bank, 2007b, “Sénégal - À la recherche de l’emploi: le chemin vers la prosperité,” Country Economic Memorandum, No. 40344-SN, Washington DC.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Economic Forum, 2007, Global Competitiveness Report (Geneva: Switzerland) http://www.weforum.org/en/index.htm.

  • United Nations, 2007, Human Development Report 2007/08, United Nations Development Program, New York, NY.

1

Prepared by Pritha Mitra (PDR).

2

A country’s external competitiveness is not only reflected in its export performance but also the ability of domestically produced products to compete with imports. Due to insufficient data on the performance of Senegalese products in relation to imports, only export performance is discussed in this chapter.

3

Senegalese phosphate products currently do not compete in world export markets. ICS, the main producer of phosphate products, is contracted to export close to its entire current production to India. With the expansion of ICS’s operations in 2008, an increasingly large share of ICS’s output may be sold in the world markets, allowing it to benefit from the current surge in world phosphate prices.

4

World Bank (2007b) provides more details. Recently, the demand for expatriate and other high-skilled workers has exceeded the supply. The subsequent growth in their wages (estimated at more than 25 percent per annum) exceeds the relative productivity gains, pushing up unit labor costs.

5

This concept of equilibrium REER for developing countries is based on the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate framework of Edwards (1989) and Williamson (1994) where internal equilibrium is defined as the present and future clearing of the nontradable market.

6

See Pesaran, et al. (2001) for details on the ARDL, and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) on the Johansen approach. Pedroni (2000) describes the FMOLS approach. The PMG approach is explained in Pesaran, et al. (1999).

7

All variables have a unit root applying the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test at the 1 percent level. The bounds test for a level long run relationship in the ARDL model was significant at the 5 percent critical value band tabulated in Pesaren, et al. (2001). The Johansen cointegration method finds one cointegrating vector, implying the existence of one long-run relationship.

8

The FEER estimation approach is based on applications of this approach to WAEMU countries in Roudet, et al. (2007). The results are broadly consistent with their analysis.

9

Long-run fundamental values are approximated by taking a three-year moving average of each variable.

10

The results from each estimation technique are generally equally relevant. However, the Johansen approach’s inferior small-sample performance relative to the ARDL approach (see paragraph 14) may justify placing a smaller weight on its results. This would not change the deviation bounds.

11

The deviation bounds do not take into account the statistical uncertainty surrounding the point estimates underlying this maximum deviation.

12

Given the small sample, data inconsistencies, and low frequency of the data, these econometric results must be used with caution. Alternative estimation techniques and models may yield different conclusions.

13

Estimations which include a dummy for the 1994 devaluation yield similar results.

14

The 95 percent confidence interval accompanying the deviation bounds for 2007 is –15 percent to +25 percent. Statistically, this implies that the estimated REER deviation is not significantly different from zero.

15

This is derived by using the elasticity of the current account balance to the REER. See IMF (2006) for more details on this methodology.

16

The adjustment depends on the exchange rate elasticity of the CA, which is identified by applying trade elasticity estimates from single-equation models of export and import demand. The estimated export (import) elasticity is 0.37 (-1.16).

Senegal: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund