Papua New Guinea: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publication Date:
12 Mar 2008
eISBN:
9781451831740
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; rate; repo rate; interest rate; monetary management; comparator policy rate change; treasury bill rate; interest rate pass-through; monetary policy statement; Exchange rates; Monetary transmission mechanism; Bank credit; Vector autoregression; Global
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This paper analyzes the workings and effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism in Papua New Guinea. The paper is organized as follows: it describes the current institutional structure in Papua New Guinea; interest rate is discussed; the evidence from vector autoregression analysis on the relationship between monetary policy variables and output and prices is considered; finally, implications are included. The Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG) uses a reserve money framework to conduct monetary policy operations. A macroeconomic balance approach estimates the REER, which simultaneously achieves internal and external balance.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the workings and effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism in Papua New Guinea. The paper is organized as follows: it describes the current institutional structure in Papua New Guinea; interest rate is discussed; the evidence from vector autoregression analysis on the relationship between monetary policy variables and output and prices is considered; finally, implications are included. The Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG) uses a reserve money framework to conduct monetary policy operations. A macroeconomic balance approach estimates the REER, which simultaneously achieves internal and external balance.

II. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Papua New Guinea1

A. Introduction

1. The Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG) has made progress towards attainment of an independent framework for the conduct of its monetary policy. From a system of controlled monetary management prior to 1994, following the move to a floating exchange rate that year, it has gradually moved to a market-based system of monetary management with price stability as its objective.

2. The main stimulus for this change was the significant reform of the banking and financial sector undertaken as part of a stabilization program begun earlier this decade. In 2000, the Central Bank Act was passed granting the central bank the needed independence for the conduct of its monetary policy. Other key reforms implemented since then include passage of the Financial Institutions Act and the Insurance Act, and reform of the pension system. Together, these reforms have precipitated a rapid increase in the size of the overall financial sector since 2000 (see Chapter 4).

3. Against this background of change in the institutional structure and size of the financial sector, an informed assessment of how and by what magnitude policy changes affect the economy would assist the successful design and implementation of monetary policy. This paper therefore analyzes the workings and effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism in Papua New Guinea. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section B describes the current institutional structure in Papua New Guinea. Section C looks at interest-rate pass through, while Section D considers the evidence from vector autoregression analysis on the relationship between monetary policy variables and output and prices. Finally, Section E sets out the paper’s conclusions and policy implications.

B. Background: Institutional and Operational Framework

4. As part of a broader agenda of financial sector reform, a new Central Bank Act was enacted in June 2000.

  • This Act set price stability as the primary macroeconomic goal of the BPNG and granted considerable policy independence in its pursuit. A Monetary Policy Committee was subsequently formed with responsibility for formulating appropriate policies that would help attain a stable inflation environment and macroeconomic stability.

  • The central bank was then free to use whatever instruments it possessed to achieve price stability. To this end, the BPNG is required to publish semi-annual monetary policy statements, setting out its outlook for the economy and the intended policy response over the coming six months.

  • The new Act also sought to reduce the effect of fiscal operations on monetary management by limiting the amount that the government can borrow from the central bank.2

  • Papua New Guinea has also since adopted the principles of universal banking, promoted competition in the financial system through the nondiscriminatory treatment of foreign investment, privatized a public bank, introduced prudential regulations consistent with the Basle standards, and improved bank supervision significantly. In addition, a stock market and mutual funds started operations.

5. In determining its monetary policy stance, the BPNG reviews a broad range of factors influencing the evolution of inflation. These include developments in the global economy, the balance of payments, fiscal operations of the government, domestic activity and the exchange rate. Although the BPNG has price stability as its ultimate objective, it does not have an explicit inflation-targeting framework.3

  • The market component of Papua New Guinea’s economy is relatively open, with nearly one-half of GDP exported and a larger proportion of consumption imported. Appropriately, Papua New Guinea has a managed floating exchange rate regime that can help to buffer the domestic economy from external shocks. However, this also implies that the exchange rate does play a significant role in the transmission of monetary policy. While not targeting a particular level of the kina, the BPNG does seek to reduce short-term and seasonal volatility of the exchange rate through foreign exchange market intervention.

  • The BPNG uses a reserve money framework to conduct monetary policy operations. Through market instruments it seeks to control the growth of reserve money, which in turn, through the money multiplier, is expected to determine the evolution of broader monetary aggregates in a manner that would achieve the price objective.

  • On a day-to-day basis, the BPNG gauges the tightness of its policy by the system-wide level of Exchange Settlement Account (ESA) balances.4 These are accounts held at the BPNG by each commercial bank.

6. In implementing monetary policy, the Kina Facility Rate (KFR) plays a key role. Since February 2001, the BPNG has used the KFR as an indicator of the stance of monetary policy. Operationally, the KFR determines the rates on the central bank’s Kina Facility and Repurchase Agreement Facility (the latter by a margin relative to the KFR determined at the BPNG’s discretion). However, the KFR has a broader role as the official benchmark rate used to signal changes in the policy stance. Decisions to vary or keep unchanged this rate are explained publicly relative to the outlook for achieving the BPNG’s inflation objective.

  • In practice, changes in the KFR have been infrequent. It has remained unchanged at 6 percent since September 2005. In addition, average KFR changes measured over one month, at between 50 and -100 basis points, are small relative to comparator policy rate changes in transition countries.

  • Another instrument actively used to manage liquidity and influence interest rates are open market operations, most recently using central bank bills and repurchase operations, which allow it to conduct open market operations at a higher frequency than the weekly treasury bill auction cycle. Also, the Repurchase Agreement Facility (RAF) operates as an overnight unsecured borrowing and lending arrangement; as noted above, its interest rate is based on the prevailing KFR.

  • The Kina Facility Rate and the RAF rate together anchor the short end of the yield curve. However, treasury bill rates have moved below the deposit rate for the Kina Facility in recent years, possibly reflecting market expectations for further reductions in the KFR (Figure 3). Given the size and persistence of the deviation, it may also reflect the KFR’s loss of credibility as a signal of the BPNG’s policy intentions.

Figure 2.
Figure 2.

Papua New Guinea: The Transmission Mechanism for Monetary Policy

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

Figure 3.
Figure 3.

Papua New Guinea: Key Financial Variables

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and Information Notice System; Country authorities; and Fund staff calculations.1/ From Sept 2005 onward using Central Bank Bills.
uA02fig01

Frequency of KFR Changes, March 2001 - Dec. 2006

(Quarter to quarter changes)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

Source: Country authorities.

7. The BPNG can also influence liquidity conditions on a daily basis through its interventions in the foreign exchange market. The low interest rates associated with current monetary conditions of high liquidity could lead to short-term capital outflows. If this occurred, and the BPNG sold foreign exchange to ease the resulting pressure on the exchange rate, it simultaneously would withdraw liquidity. However, the recent experience has been that the BPNG has generally been able to manage liquidity using its domestic instruments, and so has been able to maintain an adequate level of reserves.

8. In practice, the main instrument for monetary policy has been the repurchase facility (or repo) rate. As indicated in the monetary policy transmission mechanism depicted in Figure 2, the repo rate has direct effects on other variables in the economy, such as other interest rates, the exchange rate, money and credit, other asset prices and decisions on spending and investment. Thus, changes in the repo rate affect the demand for and supply of goods and services. Relative demand pressure and the supply capacity of the economy then becomes a key factor influencing domestic inflationary pressures. In addition, imported inflation, influenced by exchange-rate movements, plays an important role in contributing to price movements.5

C. Stylized Facts: Interest Rate Pass-Through

9. To achieve the objectives of monetary policy, the key transmission channel is the pass-through from the repo rate to other interest rates. Trends in nominal and real interest rates suggests that the repo and other interest rates have moved in the same direction since 2001 (Figure 3). Since 2003, repo rates have been declining, as have other rates. Simple OLS regressions of the contemporaneous and lagged KFR on the repo rate and of the repo rate on market rates are used to investigate interest rate pass-through. The results show that changes in the KFR translate quickly into changes in the repo rate (Table 1), as would be expected. However, changes in policy rates do not appear to translate as quickly or fully to market-determined interest rates. For each one percentage point increase in the repo rate, the Treasury bill rate changes by 75 basis points. Cross correlations of interest rates with credit, output and prices display mixed results (Table 2). While the repo rate appears to be positively correlated with inflation, it seems to have little relationship to output and credit.

Table 1.

Interest Rate Pass-through

(Regression results, 2001M1 - 2006M12)

article image
Source: Fund staff calculations.
Table 2.

Cross-Correlations of Changes in the Repo rate and Select Variables, 2001M2-2006M12

article image
Source: Fund staff calculations.

D. Evidence From Vector Autoregression Analysis

10. This section examines the relationships between monetary policy variables and output and prices using a Vector Autoregression Analysis (VAR). The VAR has several advantages:

  • VARs have been used extensively in the study of monetary policy transmission processes as they represent dynamic systems of equations in which the current level of each variable in the system depends on past movements in that variable and all other variables in the system. A key advantage of the methodology is that it imposes minimal restrictions on how monetary shocks affect the economy.

  • Moreover, the methodology recognizes explicitly the simultaneity between monetary policy and macroeconomic developments; that is, the dependence of monetary policy on other economic variables, as well as the dependence of economic variables on monetary policy.

  • Once estimated, VARs can be used to simulate the response over time of any variable in the set to either an own disturbance or a disturbance to any other variable in the system and to produce a variance decomposition of the variable.

The mathematical representation of a VAR is:

yt=αyt−1+α2yt−2+.....................+αpyt−pεt(1)

Where yt is a k vector of endogenous variables, α1,..... α p are matrices of coefficients to be estimated, and εt is a vector of innovations that may be contemporaneously correlated but are uncorrelated with their own lagged values and uncorrelated with all of the right-hand side variables. Given that only lagged values of the endogenous variables show on the right-hand side of the equations, simultaneity is not a problem, and OLS yields consistent estimates.

11. The VAR is identified using recursive Cholesky decomposition. As the reduced-form errors are typically correlated, the Cholesky decomposition isolates the underlying structural errors by recursive orthogonalization, with the innovation in the first equation untransformed, the innovation in the second equation taken as orthogonal to the first, and so on.

Data and choice of variables 6

12. The analysis focuses on the period since the passage of key financial sector reforms, including the Central Bank Act, and considers the effects of three policy instruments, namely interest rates, the exchange rate, and the money supply. We use the repo rate, which is (in connection with the KFR), the key short-term interest rate used by the BPNG to signal its monetary policy stance. The second policy-related variable is the nominal exchange rate (x). We focus on the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) to examine the effects of exchange rate changes on output and prices.7 Output is measured as real GDP (y) and the consumer price index (p) is taken as the measure of the general price level. All data are expressed in natural logs and are seasonally adjusted using ARIMA X12, with the exception of the repo rate, which is in levels and not seasonally adjusted.

13. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test suggests that the null hypothesis that the variables are I (1) cannot be rejected. Given that the monetary transmission mechanism is a short-run phenomenon, an analysis of the economy’s long run behavior is not carried out in this paper. This allows us to conduct the analysis in levels, thereby allowing for implicit cointegrating relationships in the data.8 The lag length of the VAR estimation was selected using the Akaike (AIC) and Schwartz (SC) Information Criteria, and the residuals were tested for autocorrelation. Both tests suggest a lag of the first order, and the Lagrange Multiplier Test suggests that the residuals are not serially correlated.

The Basic Model

14. In the baseline model, the vector of endogenous variables consists of real GDP (yt), the consumer price index (pt), repo rate (repot), and the nominal exchange rate (neert):

Y=[yt,pt,repot,neert](2)

The ordering of the variables was based on the speed with which the variables respond to shocks. Real output is assumed to be the least responsive, as would be expected for a small, open, developing economy, like Papua New Guinea’s, with many structural rigidities. A fundamental assumption is that in the short run, shocks to the policy variables have no contemporaneous impact on output and prices due to the real sector’s sluggish reaction to monetary and exchange rate shocks. The nominal interest rate responds contemporaneously to shocks to output and prices, but not to changes in financial variables. Finally, the nominal exchange rate responds contemporaneously to all types of shocks.9

Impulse responses and variance decomposition

15. To observe the influence of monetary policy on output and prices, we look at the impulse response functions (Figure 4). The results are summarized as follows:

  • An unexpected, temporary rise in the repo rate tends to be followed by a sluggish, but persistent decline in output. Variance decomposition indicates that, after 2 years, monetary policy accounts for 42 percent of the fluctuation in output, with own shocks accounting for broadly the amount of the variance.

  • An unexpected, temporary rise in the repo rate is followed by a decline in prices, that is significant between 5 to 17 months, peaking after around 15 months following the shock.

  • Likewise, the nominal exchange rate responds strongly to an exogenous increase in the repo rate. An unexpected and temporary rise in the repo rate tends to be followed by an immediate nominal appreciation, with the impact culminating 9–12 months after the shock.

Figure 4.
Figure 4.

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - NEER

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

i. Interest Rate Channel

16. To examine the interest rate channel more closely, we added to the basic model (Equation 2) the lending rate for new loans. The variables in this expanded VAR have the following ordering: real output, prices, repo rate, lending rate on new loans, and NEER. Figure 5 presents impulse responses stemming from innovations in monetary policy (increase in the repo rate) and bank lending rates. The lending rate responds immediately and significantly to an unexpected change in the repo rate. Output and prices, however, do not respond significantly to lending rate shocks. The results highlight the transmission of changes in the key policy interest rate to other interest rates in the economy.

Figure 5.
Figure 5.

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - Lending rate - NEER

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

17. Importantly, the results also highlight the weakness of the interest rate channel in Papua New Guinea, as changes in bank lending rates do not seem to affect economic activity and prices. Variance decomposition suggests that, after two years, interest on new lending account for 11 percent of the fluctuation in output, and just 2 percent of the fluctuation in prices.

ii. Bank Lending Channels

Bank credit

18. To examine the importance of credit in the monetary transmission mechanism, we included the natural log of seasonally adjusted domestic credit in the VAR. The variables in this expanded VAR have the following ordering: real output, prices, bank credit, and the repo rate. Bank credit appears to be important for the monetary transmission mechanism and a significant source of independent shocks to prices. A shock to bank loans results in an almost immediate increase in prices that is significant for about a year (Figure 6). Variance decomposition suggests that, after one year, credit accounts for 15 percent of the fluctuation in prices (Annex, Table 1).

Figure 6.
Figure 6.

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - Credit - NEER

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

19. Shocks to bank credit do not appear to elicit an output response that conforms to what one would expect from the theory—i.e., a positive shock to credit results in a negative output response. This result may be explained by the still relatively modest share that credit to the economy has in total bank assets. Commercial banks with limited credit assessment capacity, in an environment where property rights are not adequately defined, and where corporate governance is weak, have tended to invest their funds in government securities rather than in credit portfolios.

Bank reserves

20. To examine the issue of whether changes in the bank reserves have implications for output and prices in Papua New Guinea, we add bank reserves to Equation 2. As can be seen from Figure 7, the impulse response of output and prices to a change in bank reserves is not significant. Variance decomposition suggests that, after two years, a shock to reserve money account for only 2½ percent of the fluctuation in output, and only 2 percent of the fluctuation in prices. These results can be explained by structural rigidities in the banking system, including commercial banks’ preference to invest in government paper rather than lending operations. The results are consistent with Saxegaard (2006), which uses a threshold vector autoregression model for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries and finds that excess liquidity in the region weakens the monetary transmission mechanism, and thus the ability of monetary authorities to influence demand conditions in the economy.

Figure 7.
Figure 7.

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Bank reserves - Repo rate - NEER

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

Source: Fund staff calculations.

iii. Exchange Rate Channel

21. Evidence on the exchange rate channel suggests that prices respond strongly to the exchange rate. An appreciation of the NEER results in an almost immediate (within 2 months) decline in prices, which is significant for 10 months after the initial shock. The rapid pass-through of exchange rate changes to prices is consistent with findings from other countries. The results suggest that the exchange rate plays a significant role for monetary transmission in Papua New Guinea.

Figure 8.
Figure 8.

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - NEER - Repo rate

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 093; 10.5089/9781451831740.002.A002

Source: Fund staff calculations.

E. Conclusions And Policy Implications

22. To gain insights into the workings of the Papua New Guinea economy, we investigated various channels of the monetary transmission mechanism. While the results should be interpreted with some caution given the level of noise in the data, evidence presented in this paper suggests that monetary policy has been successful in influencing prices and market interest rates. It has been, however, less successful in influencing domestic output.

  • Policy instrument (repo): We find evidence to support the view that changes in the BPNG’s key policy instrument (the repo rate) have a significant and rapid impact on prices. Changes in the repo rate also affect output sluggishly, and with a significant lag. An unexpected and temporary rise in the repo rate also tends to be followed by nominal exchange rate appreciation.

  • Bank lending rate: The lending rate responds immediately and significantly to an unexpected change in the repo rate. Output and prices, however, do not respond significantly to lending rate shocks.

  • Bank credit: We find no statistical link in our data between monetary policy and bank credit, nor between bank credit and economic activity. Bank credit appears, however, to be an important source of independent shocks to prices.

  • Bank reserves: Our results also show that monetary policy does not seem to have an effect on bank reserves. In addition, the response of output and prices to a change in bank reserves is not significant. These result could be explained by structural rigidities in the banking system, including commercial banks’ preference to invest in government paper, despite a significant amount of excess liquidity.

  • Exchange rate: The nominal exchange rate responds immediately and significantly to an unexpected change in the repo rate rates, possibly reflecting capital mobility associated with interest rate differentials vis-à-vis other countries. The appreciation of the currency following monetary tightening in turn makes imports cheaper, thereby decreasing the overall price level and the rate of inflation.

23. While the BPNG has developed and improved its set of monetary instruments over the years, the instruments could be more effective, to allow the various channels of monetary transmission to operate most effectively. The authorities could consider an in-depth assessment of the financial system to take stock, identify, and address remaining weaknesses in the sector. These include improving governance of the central bank and financial institutions, strengthening the regulatory framework, as well as enhancing the legal framework, with a view to improving the monetary transmission mechanism to the real sector. In addition, strengthening the quality, frequency and timeliness of price statistics and indicators of economic activity would contribute to an improved understanding of the monetary transmission mechanism.

Annex I. Model Variance Decomposition: Data Evidence

Table 1.

Variance Decomposition of the Basic Model 1/

article image
Source: Fund staff calculations.

Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo - NEER.

Table 2.

Variance Decomposition of Extended Model - Lending Rate 1/

article image
Source: Fund staff calculations.

Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo - Lending rate - NEER

Table 3.

Variance Decomposition of Extended Model - Bank Credit 1/

article image
Source: Fund staff calculations.

Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo - Credit - NEER

Table 4.

Variance Decomposition of Extended Model - Bank Reserves 1/

article image
Source: Fund staff calculations.

Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Reserves - Repo - NEER.

References

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  • Favero, C. A., 2001, Applied Macroeconometrics, (Oxford: University Press).

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  • Saxegaard, Magnus, 2006, “Excess Liquidity and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa,” IMF Working Paper, No. 06/115 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

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1

Prepared by Ebrima Faal and Agnes Isnawangsih. This chapter is based on a presentation delivered at the BPNG in Port Moresby in November 2007 and benefits from comments received at that time.

2

The Bank of Papua New Guinea can provide a temporary advance to the government (limited originally to K100 million, and since adjusted for inflation) for a period of no longer than six months. However, the central bank can also hold government securities for monetary policy purposes, which are not subject to the borrowing limit.

3

In part, this reflects the fact that there are insufficient timely data available, particularly on economic activity, for accurate inflation forecasts that would form the basis for a quantitative inflation target.

4

All interbank transfers are settled through these accounts, which represent “same-day” funds. The balances in these accounts do not include deposits used to satisfy reserve requirements, and therefore ESA levels represent the excess reserves of the banking system. The level of ESA balances is affected by many factors beyond the control of Bank of Papua New Guinea, including government expenditure and tax collections, foreign exchange transactions, and changes in the check float.

5

Papua New Guinea moved to a floating exchange rate system in September 1994.

6

Monthly data for 2001–06 are used for the econometric analyses. The annual GDP series is converted into a monthly series using quadratic match sum feature in Eviews and the quarterly CPI series is converted using the linear match last feature.

7

Using the NEER as opposed to a real effective exchange rate makes it easier to distinguish the exchange rate channel from other channels.

8

Most of the empirical literature on VARs has tended to estimate VARs that are unrestricted in levels (Favero, 2001). Sims, Stock, and Watson (1990) show that if enough of the variables are cointegrated, an analysis in levels is still correct because the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator of the reduced-form VAR efficiently estimates the cointegrating relationship.

9

Alternative orderings of the variables in the VAR produced broadly similar qualitative findings as in the baseline model.

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Papua New Guinea: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Author: International Monetary Fund
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2008: Issue 093
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
9781451831740
ISSN:
1934-7685
Pages:
100
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451831740.002
  • View in gallery

    Papua New Guinea: The Transmission Mechanism for Monetary Policy

  • View in gallery

    Papua New Guinea: Key Financial Variables

  • View in gallery

    Frequency of KFR Changes, March 2001 - Dec. 2006

    (Quarter to quarter changes)

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    Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - NEER

  • View in gallery

    Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - Lending rate - NEER

  • View in gallery

    Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - Credit - NEER

  • View in gallery

    Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Bank reserves - Repo rate - NEER

  • View in gallery

    Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - NEER - Repo rate

Papua New Guinea: The Transmission Mechanism for Monetary Policy

Papua New Guinea: Key Financial Variables

Frequency of KFR Changes, March 2001 - Dec. 2006

(Quarter to quarter changes)

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - NEER

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - Lending rate - NEER

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Repo rate - Credit - NEER

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - Bank reserves - Repo rate - NEER

Papua New Guinea: Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations + 2 SE Cholesky Ordering: Output - Prices - NEER - Repo rate