Namibia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
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The recent uptrend in Namibia’s current account surplus reflects an increase in public and private savings. Tighter domestic investment rules will not reduce capital outflows. The phasing and macroeconomic impact of regulatory changes requires careful scrutiny. Market-based incentives for investment repatriation are attractive. Namibia’s non-renewable natural resource sector is a significant contributor to Namibia’s economy and it is important to continue management of its mineral resources wisely. Faster growth in low-skill job opportunities and more flexible labor market institutions will help tackle unemployment in the short-term.

Abstract

The recent uptrend in Namibia’s current account surplus reflects an increase in public and private savings. Tighter domestic investment rules will not reduce capital outflows. The phasing and macroeconomic impact of regulatory changes requires careful scrutiny. Market-based incentives for investment repatriation are attractive. Namibia’s non-renewable natural resource sector is a significant contributor to Namibia’s economy and it is important to continue management of its mineral resources wisely. Faster growth in low-skill job opportunities and more flexible labor market institutions will help tackle unemployment in the short-term.

V. The Challenges of Reducing Unemployment19

A. Introduction

129. High and persistent unemployment is one of the most pressing issues facing Namibia. Despite annual GDP growth of 4.6 percent during 2000 to 2005, the unemployment rate has risen from 34.5 percent in 2000 to 36.7 percent in 2004,20 which is high by broader African standards.

130. Employment growth has been inhibited by generally low skill levels, lack of diversification of the economy, and labor market inflexibilities. At independence in 1990, Namibia inherited a poor education system that did not prepare students well for the work place. Job opportunities have also been restricted by a heavy dependence on the capital-intensive mining and mineral processing. At the same time, labor market impediments have deterred job creation outside the mining sector.

131. Faster growth in low-skill job opportunities and more flexible labor market institutions would help tackle unemployment in the short run. While improvements in education and training are required over the long run, near-term job creation may require lower-skill, entry-level positions in manufacturing, tourism, and other service activities. More competitive labor costs and flexible labor market institutions would help encourage investments in these sectors.

B. Unemployment Overview

132. Weak job growth has resulted in rising unemployment. Employment growth of less than 1 percent per annum during 1992–2004 contrasted with annual labor force growth of about 3 percent, resulting in an increase in unemployment from 19 percent in 1992 to 37 percent in 2004, comparable to Lesotho and South Africa, but well above a number of other African peers (Table V.1).

Figure V.1.
Figure V.1.

Namibia: GDP Growth, Employment, and the Labor Force

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 082; 10.5089/9781451828450.002.A005

Table V.1.

Labor Force Participation and Unemployment

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Sources: Namibia Labour Force Survey; International Labor Organization; and World Bank Development Indicators

Narrow definition, excluding those not looking for work

133. Unemployment varies significantly by region, gender, age, and education level. On a broad definition, including those seeking work, unemployment ranges regionally from a low of 19 percent to a high of 65 percent. On the same basis, rural unemployment is higher than urban (45 percent, compared to 29 percent), and women are more likely to be unemployed than men (43 percent, compared to 30 percent). Unemployment is particularly high among the young, reaching 57 percent in the 20–24 age group. Unemployment is also higher for those with lower education levels: those with less than secondary education face unemployment rates of over 30 percent (Figure V.2).

Figure V.2.
Figure V.2.

Namibia: Unemployment Characteristics

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 082; 10.5089/9781451828450.002.A005

134. Discouraged workers and underemployment are common. Almost half of the unemployed are not seeking jobs, while 56 percent of those actively looking for employment have been unemployed for more than 2 years. At the same time, nearly one third of employed workers experience some degree of underemployment and are interested in additional work.

Figure V.3.
Figure V.3.

Namibia: Discouraged Workers and Under Employment

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 082; 10.5089/9781451828450.002.A005

C. Contributions to High Unemployment

Low skills

135. Lack of skills and low educational attainment contribute to high unemployment. Compared to workers with no education, those with senior secondary education (beyond grade 10) face a 60 to 80 percent higher probability of being employed (Figure V.4). Perhaps surprisingly, primary and Junior secondary education does not appear to strengthen Job prospects. This finding is consistent with a recent World Bank (2005) study, which finds a negative return on primary education in raising employees’ wage levels. The apparently weak impact of education through the Junior secondary level is a concern, given that only 20 percent of the working age population is educated beyond this point.

Figure V.4.
Figure V.4.

Namibia: Education and Employment Probability

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 082; 10.5089/9781451828450.002.A005

136. Scarcity of skilled workers results in high wage premia. Skilled workers earn about 5 times the wage of the unskilled, and for professional and managerial workers, wages are about 10 times higher. These skill premia appear large, by international standards (Table V.2).

Table V.2.

Wage Differentials

Namibia Wage Differential 2001–07

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Source: Jobs Unlimited Salary Survey (2001–07)

Wage Differential in Selected Countries

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Median wage of skilled to unskilled, staff estimate

90th to 10th percentile of wage for manufacturing workers in 1995, Avalos and Savvides (2003)

Weighted average wage of college graduate to high school diploma in the mid 90s, Murphy and Welch (2002)

Economic structure

137. Structural change has been biased against those with lower skills. Although the primary and secondary sectors offer proportionally more low-skill jobs, employment in these sectors declined between 1997 to 2004 by 3.6 percent and 0.8 percent per annum, respectively. By contrast, jobs in the service sector, which tend to be more high-skill, expanded by 1.7 percent per annum (Figure V.5). The bias of structural change toward high-skill jobs has also been noted for the South African labor market by Rodrik (2006). As in Namibia, this trend has been associated in South Africa with a stubbornly high unemployment for labor force participants with limited education and skills.

Figure V.5.
Figure V.5.

Namibia: Annual Employment Growth by Industry, 1997–2004

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 082; 10.5089/9781451828450.002.A005

138. Mining and agriculture are not the answer. The mining sector is highly capital-intensive, and although employment has been rising, the base is very small, and unable to make a significant dent in unemployment. While the agricultural sector is a large employer of low-skill workers, value-added per worker is low (as well as incomes), and employment has been declining over the past decade. Moreover, with very low rainfall, Namibia is less well-suited to agricultural production than many economies, including a number of regional peers.

139. Manufacturing is possibly an option, though the base is also small. The manufacturing sector accounts for just 12–13 percent of employment and GDP. With a population of just two million, Namibia cannot build a manufacturing base without developing export markets. Progress on this front is also lagging, with manufacturing goods representing a smaller share of merchandise exports than for many peers (Table V.3). Beyond manufacturing, job options include construction and labor-intensive service sectors, including tourism.

Table V.3.

Manufacturing Share in GDP and Merchandise Exports

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Source: World Development Indicators

Data for 2005, unless otherwise indicated.

Data for 2003.

Data for 2002.

Labor costs

140. Wage levels need to be competitive for labor-intensive export sectors in a global market. A recent World Bank report shows that the median monthly wage for a production worker in Namibia is higher than most other middle-income countries, except South Africa. While this is matched by relatively high productivity and capital intensity for existing companies, it could be an obstacle to the expansion of low-skill employment.

Figure V.6.
Figure V.6.

Namibia: Median Monthly Wage for Production Workers

(U.S. dollars)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 082; 10.5089/9781451828450.002.A005

141. It is also important to minimize non-wage labor cost. Non-wage benefits constitute an important part of the overall labor cost in Namibia. The new Labor Act will increase minimum annual leave from 24 consecutive days (about 18 working days) to 24 working days; a further 5 days of compassionate leave will also be provided.21 These leave benefits are generous compared to many potential export competitors (Table V.4).

Table V.4.

Statutory Leave Comparisons

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Sources: IM F database, and various sources for leave days

Unemployment data for 2004.

Leave of 24 consecutive days.

Leave of 24 working days plus 5 compassionate days.

Leave after 1 year’s service.

Leave rises from 8 days with up to 2 years’ service to 16 days with 5 years or more with one employer.

Leave after one year’s service.

Labor market institutions

142. Rigidities in hiring and firing have been a deterrent to employment. The Namibian labor market is characterized by a high level of regulation. Private sector employers have complained about the difficulty in hiring part-time labor and expatriate workers. Lack of appropriate regulatory measures for temporary employment agencies have reduced contract jobs for unskilled and semi skilled workers. On the other hand, the burdensome and ineffective process of firing employees under the old Labor Act has made employers cautious in increasing employment levels (Box V.1).

Labor Dispute Resolution in Namibia

Under the 1992 Act, labor disputes should be first resolved at the District Labor Courts, which handle complaints from either an employee or an employer on issues concerning labor laws, employment contracts or collective bargaining agreements. This results in an adversarial labor relations, with cases appealed to the higher labor courts and a high incidence of strikes and lockouts. The system has also been criticized for its low efficiency and difficulties in enforcing decisions resulted from its complicated structure. The new Labor Act seeks to improve the resolution process by using conciliation and arbitration instead of the District Labor Courts. Under the new Act, dispute will be referred to a Labor Commissioner, who appoints a conciliator and oversees the whole process of conciliation and arbitration. The conciliator is required to resolve the case within 30 days. If this fails, the parties can seek arbitration based on mutual agreement. In certain cases, the Labor Commissioner may require compulsory arbitration.

143. Strong union power is a feature of the Namibian labor market. Union membership is particularly high among government employees (57 percent), and unions appear to have been successful in raising the incomes of their members, with the 2003 Household Survey indicating that the mean hourly wage for a trade union member is about 45 percent higher than for a non-union member.

Figure V.7.
Figure V.7.

Namibia: Unionization

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 082; 10.5089/9781451828450.002.A005

D. Policies to Reduce Unemployment

144. Over the longer term, strengthened education and training are a top priority for reducing unemployment. Efforts are needed to strengthen the quality of education through the junior secondary level, increase the proportion of students benefiting from higher secondary and tertiary education, and provide continuing education and training for those in the workforce. The government has initiated several programs in this area. A center-piece is the government’s Education and Training Sector Improvement Program (ETSIP), which aims to improve the quality of general education, develop the use of information and communication technology, and expand vocational education and training. The program is to be implemented in three phases over 15 years, and funding was secured in May 2007 for the first phase from a coalition of development partners including the World Bank.

145. Policy measures are also needed to open up low skill employment. This will be important, given the time required to strengthen education and training in a broad-based manner. Given the limited prospects for job growth in mining and agriculture, policies should be focused on tackling obstacles to investment and growth of labor-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and construction.

146. More flexible labor market institutions could encourage labor demand. Relaxing the work permit regime to permit entry by foreign workers with critical skills could create rather than eliminate jobs for nationals by broadening the economic base. In addition, steps to eliminate undue restrictions on temporary work and worker dismissals could encourage employers to increase hiring. The latter is being addressed in the new Labor Act through a proposed expansion of conciliation and arbitration.

147. A more pro-business approach within the public sector would also be beneficial. It is important that public sector employees recognize the contribution of the private sector to job creation, and be helpful in minimizing any undue bureaucratic obstacles. This approach could be fostered through training provided to the civil service in the planned National Institute of Public Administration and Management, scheduled for opening in 2009.

Table 1.

Namibia: GDP and Gross National Income (GNI) at Current Prices, 2001–06 1/

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics and IMF staff estimates.

Columns may not sum due to rounding error.

Table 2.

Namibia: GDP by Industrial Origin at Current Prices, 2001–06 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Columns may not sum due to rounding error.

Table 3.

Namibia: Sector Shares of GDP at Current Prices, 2001–06

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Table 4.

Namibia: GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant 1995 Prices, 2001–06 1/

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.

Columns may not sum due to rounding error.

Table 5.

Namibia: GDP Growth by Industrial Origin at Constant 1995 Prices, 2001–06

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 6.

Namibia: Expenditure on GDP, 2001–06 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Columns may not sum due to rounding error.

Changes in inventories includes only livestock, ores and minerals. Discrepency includes other changes in inventories.

Table 7.

Namibia: National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), January 2005–October 2007

(Index, December 2001=100)

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 8.

Namibia: Financial Operations of the Central Government, 2001/02–2006/07 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Transfers from the common revenue pool (customs and excise) of the Southern African Customs Union.

Includes externally financed project spending (except for roads) that is not channeled through the state account.

Table 9.

Namibia: Central Government Revenue and Grants, 2001/02–2006/07 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Transfers from the common revenue pool (customs and excise) of the Southern African Customs Union.

Table 10.

Namibia: Central Government Revenue and Grants (Percent of GDP), 2001/02–2006/07 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

Transfers from the common revenue pool (customs and excise) of the Southern African Customs Union.

Table 11.

Namibia: Central Government Expenditure, 2001/02–2006/07 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

This includes externally financed project spending (except for roads) that is not channeled through the state account.

Table 12.

Namibia: Central Government Expenditure (Percent of GDP), 2001/02–2006/07 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1.

This includes externally financed project spending (except for roads) that is not channeled through the state account.

Table 13.

Namibia: Outstanding Debt of Central Government, 2001/02–2006/07 1/

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Sources: Namibian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Fiscal year begins April 1. Unless otherwise indicated, data correspond to debt stocks at the end of each fiscal year.

Table 14.

Namibia: Summary Accounts of the Bank of Namibia, 2003–07

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Source: Bank of Namibia
Table 15.

Namibia: Monetary Survey, 2003–07

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Source: Bank of Namibia.
Table 16.

Namibia: Interest Rates, 2001–07

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Sources: South African Reserve Bank; Bank of Namibia; and IMF, International Financial Statistics.

South African Reserve Bank’s repo rate.

Average tender rate for 91-day bills.

For South Africa, rates are upper margin of interest on time deposits of 88-91 days. For Namibia, rates are weighted averages of demand deposits, 88-day notice deposits, savings deposits, and deposits with a maturity of more than one year of two largest commercial banks.

For South Africa, prime overdraft rate of major banks. For Namibia, weighted average of different lending instruments.

Headline inflation for South Africa; Windhoek consumer price index for Namibia until 2004, NCPI from 2005 on.

Deflated by consumer price indices.

Table 17.

Namibia: Selected Indicators of Stock Exchange Activity, 2001–07

(Based on calendar years, with listings and share price figures stated as of December 31)

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Source: Namibian Stock Exchange.

As of October.

Table 18.

Namibia: Balance of Payments, 2001–06

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Sources: Bank of Namibia and IMF staff estimates.

Southern African Customs Union.

Gross foreign assets of the Bank of Namibia.

Table 19.

Namibia: Merchandise Exports by Commodity Group, 2001–First Half of 2007

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Source: Bank of Namibia.
Table 20.

Namibia: Mineral Exports, 2001–First Half of 2007

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Source: Bank of Namibia.
Table 21.

Namibia: External Trade Indices, 2001–06

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Sources: Bank of Namibia; and IMF staff estimates.
Table 22.

Namibia: Merchandise Imports by Commodity Group, 2001–06

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Source: Bank of Namibia, and IMF staff estimates.
Table 23.

Namibia: Imports (c.i.f) by Country of Origin, 2001–06

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 24.

Namibia: Exports by Country of Destination, 2001–06

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Source: Central Bureau of Statistics.
Table 25.

Namibia: Developments in the Exchange Rate of the Namibia Dollar, 1998–07

(Period averages; 2000=100)

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Sources: IMF, Information Notice System; and IMF staff calculations.

References

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19

Prepared by Chuling Chen (AFR).

20

Broad definition. Data from Namibia Labour Force Survey 2000, 2004.

21

Employers will also be required under the new Labor Law to contribute to the benefits of workers on maternity leave, in contrast to the current regime, where payments are funded by the Social Security Commission.

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Namibia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Author:
International Monetary Fund