Republic of Madagascar
Second and Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Staff Statement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar

There has been progress in strengthening public financial management; however, improving budget execution and strengthening public finances is required. The tax and custom administration reforms will help bolster private sector-led growth and meet the ambitious revenue target to finance priority expenditure. Monetary and exchange rate policy is required to reduce inflation while preventing an overshooting of the exchange rate. Further progress is needed to foster financial sector development. A more ambitious rehabilitation plan for the electricity sector needs to be designed and implemented with urgency.

Abstract

There has been progress in strengthening public financial management; however, improving budget execution and strengthening public finances is required. The tax and custom administration reforms will help bolster private sector-led growth and meet the ambitious revenue target to finance priority expenditure. Monetary and exchange rate policy is required to reduce inflation while preventing an overshooting of the exchange rate. Further progress is needed to foster financial sector development. A more ambitious rehabilitation plan for the electricity sector needs to be designed and implemented with urgency.

I. Introduction

1. The completion of the second review, initially scheduled in conjunction with the Article IV consultation (which took place on June 25, 2007), was postponed at the request of the authorities. Evidence of one case of misreporting regarding a continuous structural performance criterion on no waiver of established procedures for valuation and clearance of goods at customs (MEFP, Table 2) was identified in March 2007, and the authorities asked for additional time to conduct an audit.

II. Recent Economic Developments

2. Economic growth picked up while inflation abated in 2007 (Tables 2 and 3). The start up of construction of two large mining projects more than offset the adverse effect on agriculture (particularly rice and vanilla) of the cyclones and floods that occurred early in the year. Following a food-related price increase early in the year and a nonfood-related price moderation owing to currency appreciation during the first half of the year, overall inflation and core inflation (excluding rice and energy) declined to single digits (year-on-year).

Table 1.

Madagascar: Tentative Work Program Under the Three-Year PRGF Arrangement, 2006–08

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Table 2.

Madagascar: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2005–09

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Sources: Malagasy authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

IMF Country Report No. 07/7, Republic of Madagascar: First Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the PRGF.

IMF Country Report No. 07/236; Republic of Madagascar-Staff Report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation.

Growth in percent of beginning of period money stock (M3).

Year-on-year growth.

Includes MDRI capital transfers in 2006.

Program definition: see Table 4a, footnote 7.

Table 3.

Madagascar: National Accounts and Savings-Investment Balance, 2005–09

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Sources: Malagasy authorities and IMF staff estimates.

IMF Country Report No. 07/236; Republic of Madagascar-Staff Report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation.

Includes non-inputed banking services.

Excluding MDRI capital transfers in 2006.

Including MDRI capital transfers in 2006.

A01ufig01

Madagascar: Consumer Price Index, June 2005–November 2007

(Annual percent change)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2008, 066; 10.5089/9781451825459.002.A001

Source: Malagasy authorities.

3. Budget execution has been broadly on track (Table 5). Tax revenue performance at end-September 2007 was below target owing to some weakening in tax administration during the transition to a new management team at the tax directorate, and the currency appreciation which dampened the domestic currency equivalent of foreign trade taxes. Net domestic financing of the budget was nonetheless below the program ceiling owing to slow execution of expenditure, and cuts in nonpriority spending (0.5 percent of GDP) to allow for higher than programmed obligatory spending (e.g., under budgeted civil service pensions and VAT reimbursements) and transfers to the electricity company. In June 2007, the President announced an amnesty (expiring at end-2007) on penalties related to breaches of tax, customs and foreign exchange legislation.

Table 4a.

Madagascar: Government Financial Operations, 2005–09

(Billions of ariary, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and Budget; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

IMF Country Report No. 07/7, Republic of Madgascar: First Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the PRGF.

IMF Country Report No. 07/236; Republic of Madagascar-Staff Report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation.

After MDRI debt relief from 2006 onward.

Includes annexed budgets of quasi-public entities (i.e. port authorities, post office, government printing office, civil service, retirement funds, and correspondent accounts of local authorities).

Total revenue minus expenditure, excluding foreign interest payments and foreign-financed capital expenditure.

Difference between committed and paid expenditure.

Program definition: banking system, nonbanking system, Treasury correspondent accounts, privatization receipts, float, and variation in arrears, excluding capital transfer flowing from MDRI assistance from IMF via central bank in 2006, transfers to recapitalize the central bank in 2007, interest payment on central bank recapitilization bond in 2007, and transfers to the central bank to defray sterilization costs in 2008 (TMU, ¶12).

Spending of education, health, agriculture, public works and tranport, justice, environment, energy and mining ministries.

Table 4b.

Madagascar: Government Financial Operations, 2005–09

(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and Budget; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Foreign grants and loans, less debt service (excluding MDRI capital transfers in 2006).

Table 5.

Madagascar: Quarterly Government Financial Operations, 2007

(Billions of ariary, cumulated since the beginning of the year)

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Sources: Ministry of Economy, Finance, and Budget; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

4. Monetary growth remained robust and interest rates fell sharply (Tables 7 and 8). The accumulation of net foreign assets (NFA) has boosted annual growth of M3 and reserve money. While the Central Bank has mopped up about eighty percent of the liquidity injected by its purchases of foreign exchange, residual liquidity and reduced budgetary financing demands have led to a decline in the average yield on treasury bills to 8.6 percent in November. The monetary authorities have taken actions to strengthen their internal auditing, following bank note thefts of 0.1 percent of GDP uncovered in early 2007.

Table 6.

Madagascar: Balance of Payments, 2005–11

(Millions of SDRs)

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Sources: Central Bank of Madagascar, Ministry of Finance, IMF Finance Dept., and IMF staff estimates and projections.

IMF Country Report No. 07/7, Republic of Madagascar: First Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the PRGF.

IMF Country Report No. 07/236; Republic of Madagascar-Staff Report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation.

After MDRI debt relief from 2006 onward.

Other official grants less payments due to scholarships and contributions to international organizations.

Includes impact of MDRI in 2006.

After HIPC and MDRI debt reliefs.