Front Matter Page
© 2008 International Monetary Fund
February 2008
IMF Country Report No. 08/65
Nigeria: Selected Issues
This Selected Issues paper for Nigeria was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 22, 2008. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Nigeria or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Front Matter Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
NIGERIA
Selected Issues
Prepared by Chad Steinberg (AFR) and Stephen Swaray and Jennifer Moyo (both MCM)
Approved by the African Department
January 22, 2008
Contents
I. Nigerian Inflation: A Structural Model for Policy Analysis
A. The Model
B. Assumptions on Equilibrium Values
C. Baseline Forecast
D. Risk Analysis
E. Conclusions
References
Figures
I.1. Model Diagram
I.2. Equilibrium Values
I.3. Baseline Scenario
I.4. Fiscal Expansion Scenario
I.5. Naira Appreciation Scenario
I.6. High Food Price Scenario
Appendices
I.A1. Complete Model Equations
I.A2. Calibration
II. Banking Sector Stability Following Consolidation
A. Recent Developments
B. Bank Soundness
C. Stress Tests
D. Emerging Risks and Vulnerabilities
E. Banking Supervision
F. Conclusions
Tables
II.1. Bank Groups
II.2. Portfolio Quality by Group
II.3. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2004–07
II.4. Comparator Countries: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2007
II.5. Sensitivity to Credit Risk
II.6. Sensitivity to Interest Rate Risk
Boxes
II.1. Stress Tests: Methodology and Results