Republic of Kazakhstan
Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Module, Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

The data quality assessment shows that Kazakhstan is in observance of the Special Data Dissemination Standard, meeting the specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and the dissemination of advance release calendars. Executive Directors have suggested a set of recommendations that are designed to further increase Kazakhstan’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and enhance the analytical usefulness of Kazakhstan’s statistics. Cross-cutting recommendations, national accounts, consumer and producer price indices, government finance statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments statistics were reviewed for the recommendations.

Abstract

The data quality assessment shows that Kazakhstan is in observance of the Special Data Dissemination Standard, meeting the specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and the dissemination of advance release calendars. Executive Directors have suggested a set of recommendations that are designed to further increase Kazakhstan’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and enhance the analytical usefulness of Kazakhstan’s statistics. Cross-cutting recommendations, national accounts, consumer and producer price indices, government finance statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments statistics were reviewed for the recommendations.

I. Overall Assessment

1. Kazakhstan subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) on March 24, 2003 and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) on March 24, 2003. Kazakhstan is in observance of the SDDS, meeting the specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and the dissemination of advance release calendars. Kazakhstan uses a flexibility option for the periodicity and timeliness of the data on central government operations. Appendix I provides an overview of Kazakhstan’s dissemination practices compared to the SDDS.

2. The Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module covers national accounts, consumer price, producer price, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments (BOP) statistics. This report assesses these datasets against the requirements of the SDDS using the July 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). It is a reassessment of the data module for Kazakhstan conducted in 2002 against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) on the basis of the July 2001 version of the DQAF. In the interval since the last assessment, practices have been strengthened in transparency, scope, source data, relevance, cross-dataset consistency, and data and metadata accessibility. The more demanding standard of the 2003 DQAF against largely unchanged practices in statistical techniques for price statistics and basis for recording for government finance statistics (GFS) lead to lower assessments in these areas than in 2002. The report contains the following main observations. Kazakhstan’s statistical system shows relative strengths in legal and institutional environment, professionalism, assessment and validation of intermediate data and outputs, and assistance to users. However, the commendably high cross-dataset consistency of the system means that a few instances of incomplete implementation of concepts in one dataset propagate to the others, and makes more critical the need for all sector datasets to adhere closely to the most recent statistical standards. Section II provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-part scale. This is followed by staff recommendations in Section III. Practices compared to the SDDS are summarized in Appendix I. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents. This is the first data ROSC whose detailed assessments (Section III) include descriptions of practices for incorporating information on oil and gas activities and products into the estimates for the covered datasets, as encouraged by the Sixth Review of the Fund’s Data Standards Initiatives of November 2005.

3. In applying the current, July 2003, version of the IMF’s DQAF, the remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions. The presentation is done at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions and across datasets for the remaining four. Section II provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-point rating scale. This is followed by staff recommendations in Section III. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents.

4. Prerequisites of quality. The Kazakh data-producing agencies rely on a well-designed legal and institutional framework providing a solid foundation for the dataset assessed in this report. Since the 2002 data ROSC, amendments to the Law on Official Statistics in 2002 and 2004, the 2004 government regulation on the Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASRK), and the 2005 ASRK order establishing the Public Council clearly position the ASRK as the country’s central executive statistical agency. As such, the ASRK has the leading role in coordinating the activities of other producers of official statistics, primarily through a medium-term program of statistical development and annual statistical plans that are embedded in the budgetary process. Budgeted resources are broadly commensurate with the existing statistical programs for the data categories under review.

5. In assessing quality management, the mission noted the ambitious medium-term statistical program the ASRK management has mapped and for which it has secured funding, including censuses of agriculture and population, as well as the major reorganization of headquarters functions scheduled for end-2006 through the second quarter of 2007. The reorganization includes relocation to Astana of agency and departmental management, as well as senior professionals, comprising about 30 percent of the current Almaty staff. The remaining staff of the new Astana headquarters will be recruited in part from existing ASRK staff and in part from new hires. The ASRK has received funds for the logistics of the move to Astana and management sees training of new and existing staff as a priority. At the same time, the capacity of the National Accounts Department and, to a lesser extent, the Price and Labor Statistics Department, to implement current programs is at risk from a recent and significant increase in the number of vacancies. In view of the current tight staff situation, continuity of these programs will require close attention to filling vacancies with qualified applicants and providing training for new staff.

6. All agencies maintain the relevance of their statistical outputs by soliciting and acting on user feedback. The ASRK expects to further enhance outreach to both users of and data suppliers for the national accounts through the recently established user group in the Public Council. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) could improve the relevance of its data to users by publishing breakdowns of its cash-based statistics allowing ASRK to compile accrual-based sector accounts for the general government.

7. Assurances of integrity. All agencies demonstrate professionalism and provide guidelines on ethical conduct to their staff. The MOF transparency practices could be improved by posting for users the list of the officials having pre-release access to GFS. Both the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NBRK) and the MOF do not provide users advance notice of changes in methodology.

8. Methodological soundness. The six datasets reviewed broadly follow internationally accepted standards for concepts and definitions, classification and sectorization, and valuation basis. However, the NBRK practice of classifying subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies expected to operate in Kazakhstan for more than one year as nonresidents in the BOP is not internationally standard. Also, there are currently inconsistencies between the official external debt and international investment position (IIP) statistics, the source of which is clearly identified, and which can be easily corrected. The Republic of Kazakhstan government, while retaining cash execution of the budgets, has implemented certain presentational aspects of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) methodology. With the introduction of the Budget Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan as of January 1, 2005, certain provisions of the GFSM were implemented: operations of the current fiscal year related to the recording of budget revenues and payments begin on January 1 and end on December 31 of the current calendar year, and the structure of the budget has been brought closer into line with the GFSM 2001. The scope of the MOF statements of government operations is nonstandard because they do not consolidate the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK) with central and general government. The basis for recording monetary stocks and flows is not fully consistent with the guidelines in the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). However, while the general valuation of financial instruments is based on current market prices, and market exchange rates are now used to convert foreign currency accounts into domestic currency, securities held for investment purposes continue to be valued at historic or amortized cost rather than market prices. In the BOP, transfer pricing of oil exports, considered significant up until 2000, is still monitored and adjustments are made when detected, but has diminished and is currently considered a minor measurement issue.

9. Accuracy and reliability. The national accounts source data still include cumulatively reported components whose first differences are used to approximate the discrete quarterly data needed for compiling published time series. 1 New ASRK survey sources supply discrete data for the quarterly national accounts, but the staff resource constraints noted under prerequisites of quality have slowed their full incorporation into published series. The national accounts, because they integrate source data from across the statistical system, also reflect data quality issues arising in agencies other than the ASRK. GFS are compiled by the MOF, and are incorporated into the national accounts by the ASRK, on a cash rather than accrual basis. As noted under methodological soundness, the MOF has no plans, in the immediate future, to transition the GFS to the GFSM 2001, which would implement accrual recording as well as presentations of government operations statistics consistent with national accounts concepts. Also recalling the assessment of methodological soundness, one source of the discrepancy between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure is the NBRK’s nonstandard treatment of the residency of subsidiaries of foreign construction companies in the BOP, which results in an overstatement of imports and an understatement of GDP by expenditure.

10. Serviceability. With the exception of the periodicity and timeliness of monthly central government operations, for which a flexibility option is taken, the Kazakh datasets fully conform to the periodicity and timeliness of the SDDS. In fact, Kazakhstan exceeds SDDS requirements in key areas such as GFS (general government operations monthly estimates within five weeks on a cash basis versus an SDDS requirement of annual estimates within two quarters), and the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) (which have a timeliness of one day versus the SDDS requirement of 30 days) and monetary statistics (which have a timeliness of 25 days versus one month for banking sector accounts, and seven days versus two weeks for central bank accounts). Since 2004, inconsistencies between monetary and IIP data on banks’ external liabilities have been resolved. However, data inconsistencies remain in several areas: the national accounts internal discrepancy noted above between GDP by production and expenditure, which is generated by nonstandard residency criteria in the BOP; inconsistencies between monetary and GFS data on bank financing of government; and inconsistency between external debt statistics disseminated by the NBRK and the MOF, and the IIP statistics disseminated by the NBRK. Revision practices could be improved in certain areas, such as revising a data series in the monetary statistics, providing advance notice of methodological changes for GFS, monetary, and BOP revisions, and revising published GFS on the basis of audited figures.

11. Accessibility. All three data-producing agencies have made significant improvements in both data and metadata accessibility since 2002. All six datasets are now readily available to the public and are accompanied by suitable, comprehensive documentation on concepts, scope, classification, basis of recording, data sources, and statistical techniques. Users of GFS data should be informed of the early access afforded certain government officials. Serviceability to users is very good, including clear identification of contact persons and provision of links to documentation on agency websites.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

Assessment of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance, monetary, and balance of payments (BOP) statistics—were conducted using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements and using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ac. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3af.

Table 1

Kazakhstan: Data Quality Assessment Framework—Summary Results

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Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies.Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.
Table 2a

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Agency of Statistics

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Table 2b

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—National Bank

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Table 3a

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Consumer Price Index

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Table 3c

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Producer Price Index

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Table 3d

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3e

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3f

Kazakhstan: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

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III. Staff’s Recommendations2

12. Based on the review of Kazakhstan’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission has a set of recommendations. They are designed to increase further Kazakhstan’s adherence to internationally-accepted statistical practices and would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of Kazakhstan’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

Cross-cutting recommendations

  • The MOF should reconcile its data on bank financing of general government with the same data disseminated in the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin. The MOF could consider taking data on bank financing of general government from the NBRK.

  • The MOF should disseminate sufficient information on payables and receivables from past periods, and settled in the current period, that would permit users (for example, ASRK in compiling accounts for the central and general government institutional sectors), to adjust cash basis GFS statistics to an accrual basis.

  • The NBRK should compile and disseminate external debt statistics that are consistent with its IIP statistics. The MOF is encouraged to disseminate data on public external debt in line with the NBRK’s statistics.

  • Subsidiaries of foreign construction and drilling companies should be considered resident statistically, and therefore subject to NBRK surveys as any other resident entity engaged in foreign transactions. Data from surveys of these units currently under development by the NBRK should be incorporated as soon as they begin to yield reliable data. This change in methodology will result in significant revisions to time series, in particular for the current account, and their introduction will have to be managed carefully (backward revision of time series, preparation of information for users). This will improve not only the adherence to internationally-standard concepts of the BOP, but also the internal consistency of the national accounts by reducing the discrepancy between GDP by production and GDP by expenditure.

National accounts

  • In view of staff attrition on the eve of the ASRK headquarters reorganization, close attention should be given to filling vacancies with qualified applicants and providing training to the new staff, so that sufficient skilled national accounts and price statistics staff are available to ensure program continuity.

  • The ASRK is encouraged to use the recently established users’ group to monitor users’ needs systematically and periodically (for example biannually), to provide feedback on the quality of the data disseminated, detail, and possible future developments, and to inform users on the specific aspects of the current data, in particular regarding the compilation and dissemination of national accounts data by discrete (quarterly) periods rather than cumulatively.

  • Investigate further options for streamlining the statistical program by focusing attention and resources on collecting and disseminating the data by discrete time periods, and providing more resources to the quarterly national accounts to make greater use of such data.

  • Exploit administrative data sources and, as needed, conduct small-scale supplementary surveys to improve the coverage of small businesses in selected activities such as retail trade and construction, which are growing rapidly in economic importance and becoming a major source of employment.

  • Available data should be used to compile volume estimates via double deflation.

Consumer and producer price indices

  • Consider changing the elementary aggregate formula of both indices to a geometric mean, as currently recommended by the CPI Manual and PPI Manual.

  • The imputation method for seasonal goods in the CPI should be changed so that the index picks up the price change at the beginning of a new season. The price change should be based on the imputed value and the new season price at the time the seasonal item appears in the price collection.

Government finance statistics

  • Users should be advised, in the Statistical Bulletin and on the MOF website, that certain officials have prior access to budget execution data.

  • Users should be provided with advance notification of major changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques.

  • The MOF is encouraged to re-establish implementation of the GFSM 2001 in its statistical plan; the 2002 data ROSC noted that it had been a part of the MOF’s forward program, but the mission was informed that the MOF has no current plans to undertake this work. In view of the ready availability of data on financial assets and liabilities, the MOF could take a first step toward transition to GFSM 2001 methodology by compiling government financial balance sheets. By bringing the basis for recording to the accrual standard, adopting GFSM 2001 will improve the fitness for policy use, not only of the GFS, but also of the national accounts.

  • The MOF should consider including operations of the NFRK in the coverage of central and general government when compiling consolidated statements of government operations. If MOF includes the NFRK in consolidated statements of government operations, NBRK should classify its liabilities to the NFRK as belonging to the central government sector, in line with the recommended treatment of the NFRK in GFS.

  • When a debtor defaults on government guaranteed debt, the debt should be assumed by the guarantor, and shown as government debt. The creditor agreement with the borrower should be recorded as a government financial asset, which will offset the assumed government debt liability in the government’s balance sheet. This presentation assists transparency, however it requires the dissemination of government financial balance sheets. Debt data should be compiled on a current residency and sector of debt holder basis that reconciles with NBRK monetary and IIP data.

  • The MOF should establish a formal reconciliation process with the NBRK to explain the inconsistency among fiscal, monetary, and IIP data.

  • The MOF should disclose its revision policy in its statistical publications. Published cumulative budget execution statistics should be replaced by audited annual data.

Monetary statistics

  • With the introduction of a new data series in the NBRK’s Statistical Bulletin called “narrow reserve money” to supplement the existing data series, reserve money, it would also be useful to provide the definition of and data for required reserves to allow users to better understand the relationship between these three measures of reserve money.

  • Resume collection of data on and coverage of credit partnerships in the banking system survey. Credit partnerships currently are such a small part of the banking system that their exclusion does not now materially affect the scope of monetary statistics. However, as unsupervised financial institutions, they may grow to become a material part of monetary and credit activities in Kazakhstan.

  • Revalue banks’ holdings of securities for investment purposes at market prices, not historic or amortized cost.

  • Additional data on NBRK notes by sector, which are collected by the Central Securities Depository, should be published when they become available.

Balance of payments statistics

  • The NBRK should include in its publications information on the revision status of the data disseminated: initial (or preliminary), revised, and final.

Appendix I Kazakhstan: Practices Compared to the SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

Kazakhstan: Practices Compared to the SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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Note: Periodicity and timeliness: (D) daily; (W) weekly or with a lag of no more than one week from the reference data or the closing of the reference week; (M) monthly or with a lag of no more than one month; (Q) quarterly or with a lag of no more than one quarter; (A) annually; and (…) not applicable.Italics indicate encouraged categories.
1

Decumulated sources propagate the misallocation of transactions across the quarters of the year that is inherent in nonrevised cumulative data, and can cause spurious short term movements in quarterly series.

2

Please see Volume II, Response by the Authorities regarding actions Kazakhstan has taken on these recommendations since the dates of the mission.