Lebanon
2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic developments in Lebanon in 2006 were significantly affected by the July–August conflict with Israel. Real GDP is estimated to have been flat, with strong growth in the first half of the year offset by the disruptions during and after the conflict. Inflation increased, mainly reflecting supply shortages during the conflict and the ensuing blockade. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ success in containing the primary fiscal deficit in the first half of 2007.

Abstract

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic developments in Lebanon in 2006 were significantly affected by the July–August conflict with Israel. Real GDP is estimated to have been flat, with strong growth in the first half of the year offset by the disruptions during and after the conflict. Inflation increased, mainly reflecting supply shortages during the conflict and the ensuing blockade. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ success in containing the primary fiscal deficit in the first half of 2007.

I. Introduction

1. The Lebanese authorities presented an ambitious five-year reform program to donors at the Paris III conference in January 2007. The program aims at raising growth, improving living standards, and reducing Lebanon’s large debt overhang and financial vulnerabilities, taking account of the special challenges created by the conflict with Israel in July-August 2006. A number of reforms were developed in close consultation with the Fund (Box 1), and, on April 9, 2007, the Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for EPCA in support of their 2007 program.

Implementation of Past Fund Advice

Since the Paris II conference of 2003, Fund advice has focused on the implementation of the authorities’ medium-term strategy of fiscal adjustment, privatization, and structural reforms. The pace of reform and fiscal adjustment has fallen short of the initial plans and of Fund recommendations because of political instability and insufficient domestic consensus on the reform agenda. The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 caused a further setback and led to the authorities’ decision to delay most adjustment measures until 2008.

In developing their reform strategy, the authorities have, to a large extent, relied on Fund advice. Most of the tax policy and administration measures, as well as the public financial management reforms, embedded in the revised strategy presented by the authorities at the Paris III conference were developed in close consultation with staff, and have benefited from extensive Fund technical assistance. The Fund has supported the authorities’ view that the exchange rate peg remains key to financial stability.

2. Even with the strong fiscal adjustment envisaged for 2008-12, Lebanon will continue to be highly vulnerable to swings in investor confidence, and the level of public debt will remain high for years to come. Against this background, discussions for the Article IV consultation stepped back from the immediate program context and focused on: (i) making the reform strategy more resilient to inherent risks and potential shocks; (ii) reforms in the monetary policy framework and banking sector; and (iii) policies for 2007 and 2008 to support the authorities’ medium-term objectives.

II. Background and Recent Developments

3. Economic developments in 2006 were significantly affected by the conflict with Israel (Tables 110).1 Real GDP is estimated to have been flat in 2006, with strong growth in the first half offsetting the disruptions created by the conflict (Figure 1). accelerated in July-August, largely reflecting supply shortages during the conflict and the ensuing blockade. Financial pressures were managed effectively owing to the banking system’s strong liquidity position. Immediately after the conflict, donors pledged $1.7 billion for relief and recovery (mostly at the Stockholm conference in August 2006), and disbursements in 2006 roughly offset the immediate fiscal costs of the conflict (Text Table 1). Nonetheless, the overall fiscal deficit increased in 2006 because of rising interest expenditures and higher than expected transfers to the power company, Electricité du Liban (EdL). Government debt rose to over $40 billion (178 percent of GDP) at end-2006.

Table 1.

Lebanon: Selected Economic Indicators, 2003–12

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Sources: Lebanese authorities; and Fund staff estimates.

Defined as cash in circulation plus resident and non-resident deposits.

Short-term debt on a remaining maturity basis.

Table 2.

Lebanon: Central Government Primary Balance, 2003–08

(In billions of Lebanese pounds)

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Domestic excises, which are collected at customs, are classified as taxes on international trade.

On checks issued basis.

Excludes principal and interest payments paid on behalf of EdL.

From 2005 onward includes additional transfers to the social security funds (NSSF) to clear the stock of arrears.

Includes (i) $275 million for telecom settlements (2006 and 2007); and (ii) $500 million to the Council of the South and the Displaced Fund (2007 to 2009).

The budgetary cost of the 2006 conflict is estimated to at $1.48 billion.

Includes transfers to municipalities.

Table 3.

Lebanon: Central Government Primary Balance, 2003–08

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Domestic excises, which are collected at customs, are classified as taxes on international trade.

On checks issued basis.

Excludes principal and interest payments paid on behalf of EdL.

From 2005 onward includes additional transfers to the social security funds (NSSF) to clear the stock of arrears.

Includes (i) $275 million for telecom settlements (2006 and 2007); and (ii) $500 million to the Council of the South and the Displaced Fund (2007 to 2009).

The budgetary cost of the 2006 conflict is estimated to at $1.48 billion.

Includes transfers to municipalities.

Table 4.

Lebanon: Government Expenditure by Function, 2002–06 1/

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; IMF Government Finance Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.

Includes treasury and foreign-financed capital expenditure by the Council for Reconstruction and Development.

Includes subsidies on diesel oil and interest, and transfers to municipalities.

Table 5.

Lebanon: Overall Fiscal Deficit and Financing, 2003–08

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Sources: Lebanese authorities; and Fund staff estimates and calculations.

Figures in 2003 are affected by the role played by the Banque du Liban (BdL) in the debt exchange with banks that tends to increase BdL financing and decrease commercial bank financing of the government.

Debt cancellation and Banque du Liban revaluation of gold and foreign exchange.

Table 6.

Lebanon: Government Debt, 2003–12 1/

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Sources: Lebanese authorities; and Fund staff estimates and calculations.

Includes all debt contracted by the treasury on behalf of the central government and public agencies other than the Banque du Liban; accrued interest; and Banque du Liban lending to Electricite du Liban. Excludes government arrears to the private sector.

Defined as gross debt less central government deposits.

Denominated in domestic currency; mainly to the National Social Security Fund, and the National Deposit Insurance Fund.

Table 7.

Lebanon: Monetary Survey, 2003–08

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Sources: Banque du Liban; and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Broad money is taken to be M5 which is defined as M3 (currency + resident deposits) + non-resident deposits.