A. 2.1 Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon

12. Poverty reflects the privations that hinder a person’s access to basic means to satisfy her basic needs of nutrition, health, education and housing and to live longer. Poverty is a tangible phenomenon that can be defined as a state of great need and the incapacity to satisfy basic needs for food, clothing, drinking water, housing, basic sanitation, primary healthcare and education. Poverty is also a limitation of the possibilities for choice, or the populations’ inability to benefit from the opportunities enabling them to live in decent conditions, with liberty and dignity. Poverty, and particularly extreme poverty, deprives populations of the means to stay alive because it exposes them to hunger, disease and environmental catastrophes.

13. In order to obtain the in-depth diagnostic of the poverty situation in Guinea Bissau required for the preparation of the NPRSP, the government carried out two surveys: one qualitative and the other quantitative. The qualitative or subjective approach relates to the perception that the populations have of their own living conditions. The qualitative study of the perceptions of poverty along with the participatory diagnostic brought to light the fact that the majority of the population considers poverty to be a state of material incapacity and moral powerlessness against the minimal needs of society. In summary, a poor person is the one who does not have either material goods or power. The quantitative or objective approach is based on quantitative monetary or non-monetary data facilitating the definition of the poverty line at which a person or household may be considered poor. It permits measuring the incidence, depth, and severity of poverty all at once, as well as the inequality among households with respect to consumption. The Small Poverty Assessment Survey (ILAP) carried out from March to May 2002 facilitated the determination of all the indicators and highlighted the main determinants of poverty in Guinea-Bissau through a poverty profile analysis.

B. 2.2 Measuring poverty

14. The prevalence of poverty is very high. According to ILAP estimates, among a population estimated at 1,181,641 people, 764,672 live in a situation of poverty, with less than two dollars per day, which yields an incidence of poverty of approximately 64.7 percent. A population of 245,965 people, or 20.8 percent, live in extreme poverty, with less than one dollar per day.

Table 1.

Poverty indicators in Guinea-Bissau

Source: INEC/ILAP

Table 1.

Poverty indicators in Guinea-Bissau

	$ 1			$ 2
	Bissau	Other regions	Total	Bissau	Other regions	Total
Poverty line	108,000 FCFA			216,000 FCFA
P0 Incidence (%)	9.3	24.8	20.8	51.6	69.7	64.7
Number of poor people	28,414	217,551	245,965	157,612	607,060	764,672
P1 Depth	0.018	0.065	0.053	0.169	0.278	0.250
Average gap between threshold income of the poor	21,419	28,493	27,668	71,509	87,276	84,032
P2 Severity	0.006	0.026	0.021	0.073	0.142	0.124

Source: INEC/ILAP

View Table

Table 1.

Poverty indicators in Guinea-Bissau

	$ 1			$ 2
	Bissau	Other regions	Total	Bissau	Other regions	Total
Poverty line	108,000 FCFA			216,000 FCFA
P0 Incidence (%)	9.3	24.8	20.8	51.6	69.7	64.7
Number of poor people	28,414	217,551	245,965	157,612	607,060	764,672
P1 Depth	0.018	0.065	0.053	0.169	0.278	0.250
Average gap between threshold income of the poor	21,419	28,493	27,668	71,509	87,276	84,032
P2 Severity	0.006	0.026	0.021	0.073	0.142	0.124

Source: INEC/ILAP

15. In general, poor people’s spending on consumption was 25 percent below the poverty line of $ 2 per day. These gaps are more pronounced in the interior of the country than in Bissau, with the percentages being 27.8 percent and 16.9 percent, respectively. With respect to extreme poverty, people with less than one dollar had a consumption deficit of 5.3 percent preventing them to reach the poverty line of $ 1 per day. The depth of poverty at the rate of 1 dollar per day was 1.8 percent for Bissau versus 6.5 percent for the regions.

16. The indicators of the depth and severity of poverty were 25 percent and 12.4 percent, respectively, while the average difference between the poverty line and poor people’s income is estimated at 84,032 FCFA for people living on 2 USD per day, and 27,688 FCFA for those living on 1 USD per day. This means that the income deficit of poor people versus the poverty line (216,000 FCFA) is 84,032 FCFA, and versus people living in extreme poverty is 27,688 FCFA. In other words, 84,032 FCFA per person per year is required for all poor people to reach the poverty line.

17. These indicators cannot be compared to the data from the survey carried out in 1991 (HCBS) because the methodology used in the two surveys are distinct. However, at the $ 2 per day poverty line the HCBS data yields a poverty rate of 49 percent in 1991, whereas the ILAP data yields a rate of 64.7 percent in 2002. Likewise, for the extreme poverty line of $ 1 per day, the HCBS gives a rate of 26 percent and the ILAP a rate of 20.8 percent. Although it is difficult to draw conclusions based on these data, overall, the prevalence of poverty is high and the social indicators in Guinea-Bissau are still below desirable standards and average levels in Africa.

18. It should be noted that the monetary poverty rate at the poverty line of $2 per day estimated at 64.7 percent in 2002 was revised upward to 65.7 percent and the extreme poverty rate of 20.8 percent to 21.7 percent under the World Bank assessment carried out in 2005 ¹. This assessment showed poverty to be more prevalent among people 45 years of age and older, and particularly among those over 66 years of age with considerable familial responsibilities. ² People 31 to 45 years of age had the lowed prevalence of poverty. Women as a group were shown to be as poor as men, with respective incidences of 65.6 percent and 65.9 percent for the two dollars per day line and 21.1 percent and 22 percent for the 1 dollar per day line. However, up to the age of 31 and beyond the age of 65, the incidence of poverty is much higher for women than for men. Women fair better as a group because of their activities in the informal sector.

C. 2.3 Analysis of poverty by category and region

19. The methodology used for the ILAP was based on an analysis of poverty in Bissau versus the other regions as opposed to the decomposition in rural and urban areas of the HCBS. For this reason, it is therefore difficult to provide a more in-depth, detailed analysis of poverty in rural areas. Despite this limitation, the ILAP provides data on age, activity, gender, etc. that provide a great deal of knowledge on poverty in Guinea-Bissau.

20. Poverty and economic activity. Of all people over 15 years of age, more than 60 percent are active, meaning they are engaged in some activity (ILAP, 2002 data). The unemployment rate for this age group is 12.4 percent nationwide; it is 19.3 percent in Bissau and 10.2 percent in the rest of the regions. With regard to economic sectors 63.5 percent of the working age population (15 years of age and older) are employed in agricultural (including forestry and fishing), 8.9 percent in industry, and 6.1 percent in the public administration. As the data show, the large majority of the employed derive their income from working for themselves through freelance activities (58.4 percent). Wage earners, however, represent a significant proportion (42 percent) in Bissau. People employed in agriculture are poorer than those employed in other sectors. Poverty increases as a function of location of residence and size of household, but decreases with the level of education of the head of household. Persons with a secondary education and particularly those with higher education are at less risk of poverty.

21. Poverty and location. The prevalence of poverty is higher in rural areas than in urban areas. As shown in Table 2, except in Bissau, the poverty rate ranges from 62.6 percent for Biombo/Bolama to 79.6 percent for Oio. The proportion of the population living on less than two dollars per day in 2002 was 51.6 percent in Bissau versus 69.1 percent in the other regions. One can also see that Bissau is the region with the greatest contribution to the phenomenon of poverty in the country because of its demographic significance. However, the contribution of each of the regions to this phenomenon is considerable.

Table 2.

Poverty rate by region and regional contribution to poverty

Source: INEC, December 2002.

Table 2.

Poverty rate by region and regional contribution to poverty

Regions	Absolute poverty rate (%) (less than $ 2 per day)	Regional contribution to poverty
BAFATA	72.4%	13.6%
BIOMBO/BOLAMA	62.6%	9.1%
CACHEU	63.8%	14.2%
GABU	65.8%	12.3%
OIO	79.6%	18.0%
QUINARA/TOMBALI	69.1%	12.2%
BISSAU	51.6%	20.6%
Regions other than BISSAU	69.1%	79.4%
Total for the country	64.7%	100%

Source: INEC, December 2002.

View Table

Table 2.

Poverty rate by region and regional contribution to poverty

Regions	Absolute poverty rate (%) (less than $ 2 per day)	Regional contribution to poverty
BAFATA	72.4%	13.6%
BIOMBO/BOLAMA	62.6%	9.1%
CACHEU	63.8%	14.2%
GABU	65.8%	12.3%
OIO	79.6%	18.0%
QUINARA/TOMBALI	69.1%	12.2%
BISSAU	51.6%	20.6%
Regions other than BISSAU	69.1%	79.4%
Total for the country	64.7%	100%

Source: INEC, December 2002.

22. The depth of poverty is greater in the other regions than in Bissau for both the $1 and $2 poverty lines considered. While the monetary value of raising the income of the poor at the level of the poverty line (216,000 FCFA) is 84,032 FCFA nationally, in Bissau this value is 71,509 FCFA compared to 87,276 FCFA in other regions.

23. According to the ILAP data, the GINI index ³ used to measure inequality is 0.36. This indicates a lower concentration of spending among certain groups within the population and therefore less inequality in the distribution of income in Guinea-Bissau, as compared to other countries in the sub-region, and particularly Senegal, whose index is 0.40. The GINI index is 0.37 for Bissau and 0.33 for the rest of the country. It is estimated that approximately 30 percent of the population of Bissau control 60 percent of consumption or income, while 40 percent of the population in the other regions taken together control 60 percent of consumption. The level of spending by poor people is virtually one third that of non-poor people, and this gap is even greater in Bissau. The Lorenz curves ⁴ shows that inequality is slightly higher in Bissau.

Table 3.

GINI Index

Table 3.

GINI Index

		Bissau	Other regions	Total
GINI Index		0.37	0.33	0.36
Annual per inhabitant spending		216,409	145,793	164,061
POVERTY LINE $ 1
	Poor people (1)	68,509	60,360	61,311
	Non-poor people (2)	231,566	173,579	190,715
	Ratio of (2) to (1)	3.1	2.9	3.1
Poverty line $ 2
	Poor people (1)	113,104	96,998	100,312
	Non-poor people (2)	324,182	253,282	278,352
	Ratio of (2) to (1)	2.9	2.6	2.8

View Table

Table 3.

GINI Index

		Bissau	Other regions	Total
GINI Index		0.37	0.33	0.36
Annual per inhabitant spending		216,409	145,793	164,061
POVERTY LINE $ 1
	Poor people (1)	68,509	60,360	61,311
	Non-poor people (2)	231,566	173,579	190,715
	Ratio of (2) to (1)	3.1	2.9	3.1
Poverty line $ 2
	Poor people (1)	113,104	96,998	100,312
	Non-poor people (2)	324,182	253,282	278,352
	Ratio of (2) to (1)	2.9	2.6	2.8

Expenditure Concentration Curves

LORENZ CURVES

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 339; 10.5089/9781451815825.002.A001

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Expenditure Concentration Curves

LORENZ CURVES

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 339; 10.5089/9781451815825.002.A001

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Expenditure Concentration Curves

LORENZ CURVES

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 339; 10.5089/9781451815825.002.A001

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D. 3.1 Political and macroeconomic performance

24. In recent years, political and institutional instability combined with other endogenous shocks have had a significant effect on poverty in Guinea-Bissau. The fragility of governance led to deficient functioning of institutions thereby generating chains of negative reactions in other sectors, particularly economic and social sectors. As in the period prior to the 1998-99 war–which was allegedly triggered by bad governance - political and institutional instability has risen to alarming levels after the conflict. The latter claimed thousands of lives and destroyed much of the already weak economic and social and administrative infrastructures, putting the viability of the State in question.

25. In fact, one of the greatest consequences of the armed conflict was the increase in the level of poverty, reflected in the deterioration of the provision of basic services, the destruction of housing and other basic infrastructures, the decline in the level of security and the weakening of the rule of law. The household perceptions survey carried out by the World Bank in 2005 ⁵ showed for both rural and urban areas a deterioration of living conditions as compared to the period prior to the war for 76.6 percent of the people surveyed. This perception is more pronounced for urban populations (80.8 percent) than for rural populations (74.1 percent). With the armed conflict, most of the economic advances achieved by the country were wiped out; the real GDP deteriorated approximately 28 percent from 1998 to 1999; agricultural production fell approximately 17 percent during the same period and losses for the private sector were assessed at approximately USD 90 million. The precarious situation of the social sectors was aggravated. The most vulnerable segments of the population were those that suffered the greatest consequences of this conflict. The conflict also caused the weakening of the public administration.

26. Moreover the trend in the immediate aftermath of the conflict was marked by chronic political and institutional instability generated by the difficult relationships among the political powers, democratic institutions, the various political forces and the armed forces. The most notable episodes of this instability notably the armed confrontation between the factions of the armed forces in late 2000, the failure of the coalition efforts for stable governance, the dissolution of the elected parliament in late 1999, the failure of several successive governments, through the coup d’etat of September 2003, brought to light the difficulties in establishing the rule of law in Guinea-Bissau. This unstable political and institutional context severely hindered the implementation of economic and social policies aimed at reversing the trend and initiating economic recovery and poverty reduction.

27. The weak economic growth resulting from the implementation of inadequate macroeconomic and sectoral policies in the past is another major determinant of the high poverty rate in Guinea-Bissau. The economic policies implemented over the last three decades were not sufficient to drive economic growth and reduce poverty. In order to address the situation, corrective measures have been taken over the past years but were not sufficient to reverse the trend of weak performance.

28. Weak growth is also linked to the weak improvement of the country’s potential in the various sectors, particularly in agriculture, fishing, tourism etc. This limits the participation of these sectors in the country’s economic growth. Although the country has comparative advantages at the sub-regional level based on the production and export of several products other than cashew nuts, the weak private investment in these sectors and products, due to weak savings and the absence of an environment favorable to business and investment, limits the possibilities for development of these sectors and the impact they can have on economic growth, the creation of employment opportunities and improvement of the country’s external competitiveness.

29. The economic trend of recent years shows that during the period 1990-2001 the standard of living declined 1.3 percent per year. In 2002, the country had a negative GDP growth rate of -7.2 percent. As a result of the consequences of the 1998-99 conflict, investment as a percentage of GDP went from 21.8 percent in 1997 to 11 percent in 2003, thus dashing hopes for reconstruction. The local savings rate has been negative from 1998 to the present. Government aid for development is declining, going from 74.2 percent of GDP in 1994 to nearly 29.2 percent in 2002. In per capita terms, government aid for development dropped from 133.8 dollars in 1994 to 40.4 dollars in 2002.

30. The economy is not diversified and the primary agricultural sector (agriculture, livestock and fishing) is still the greatest contributor to GDP, at 59.6 percent in 2004, while the industrial and services sectors contributed only 12 percent and 28.4 percent, respectively, that year. The economy also still relies on a single export, cashew nuts. More than 93,000 tons of cashew nuts were exported in 2004 and 2005, and since 2000 they have represented nearly 90 percent of the value of the country’s exports.

31. The state of the Guinea-Bissau economy in recent years has been characterized by a constant deterioration of the principal macroeconomic indicators. As mentioned, real GDP growth was nearly 1 percent from 2000 to 2004, a level too weak to halt the deterioration of the standard of living of the populations. The estimates for 2005 are around 3.5 percent. Inflation has continued with Guinea-Bissau joining the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the adoption of the FCFA as its currency. Inflation dropped drastically, going from double digits before the country’s entry into WAEMU to an average of less than 4 percent. It was estimated to be 0.8 percent in 2004 and 3.4 percent in 2005.

32. With respect to public finances, the main budgetary indicators deteriorated as well. Le primary current balance as a percentage of GDP was negative in recent years, and dropping, at -4.7 percent in 2001 and -6.9 percent in 2005. The global budgetary balance including donations declined from -11.7 percent in 2001 to -15.6 percent in 2003 and then to -12.1 percent in 2005. The tax pressure rate is still far below the rate recommended by the WAEMU (17 percent), at 8.3 percent in 2004 and 11.5 percent in 2005. The wage bill as a percentage of tax revenues is critical; salaries far exceed revenues (111.9 percent, 155.0 percent and 108.9 percent, respectively, in 2003, 2004 and 2005), while they should not exceed 35 percent of revenues.

33. Investments, which advanced somewhat from 9.6 percent to 14.6 percent in 2005 as a percentage of GDP, are still far below the 20 percent investment rate called for in the WAEMU convergence criteria. While the domestic savings rate was negative from 2001 to 2005, the national savings rate was positive for the first time since the 1990’s, at 9.8 percent, 16.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, in 2003, 2004 and 2005. Transfers from emigrants were the basis for this positive national savings performance.

34. The country’s indebtedness is also excessive, with foreign debt outstanding in the amount of 540.1 billion FCFA and debt service representing 364.9 percent of GDP and 43.9 percent of exports in 2004. Foreign debt service should represent 103.4 percent of total revenues excluding grants in 2004 and 43.9 percent of exports. The debt portfolio is notable for the significance of the arrears accrued on the foreign debt over several years. The trend of Guinea Bissau’s foreign debt stock is shown in Table 4. The increases in the debt stocks payable to bilateral and commercial creditors are the result of interest arrears rather than new funding from this group of creditors. Actually, there was little new funding during this period. The foreign debt as of late 2004 is estimated at 540.1 billion FCFA, of which 129.9 billion FCFA were arrears accrued vis-a-vis all foreign creditors except IDA, the ADB and the IMF.

Table 4.

Guinea-Bissau: Total foreign debt stock by creditor

(in thousand USD)

Table 4.

Guinea-Bissau: Total foreign debt stock by creditor

(in thousand USD)

			2001	2002	2003
Multilateral			403,016.0	424,260.0	431,953.0
	Of which
IDA			228,689.0	234,990.0	237,830.0
ADF			109,930.9	124,779.0	127,167.0
Bilateral			555,962.0	449,104.0	464,518.0
	Paris Club		448,241.0	312,273.0	324,394.0
		Of which
Pre cut-off date			371,429.0	224,549.0	232,741.0
Post cut-off date			76,812.0	87,724.0	91,654.0
Excluding Paris Club			107,720.0	135,805.0	140,124.0
Commercial			733.0	1,026.0	1,085.0
TOTAL			959,711.0	874,390.0	897,556.0

View Table

Table 4.

Guinea-Bissau: Total foreign debt stock by creditor

(in thousand USD)

			2001	2002	2003
Multilateral			403,016.0	424,260.0	431,953.0
	Of which
IDA			228,689.0	234,990.0	237,830.0
ADF			109,930.9	124,779.0	127,167.0
Bilateral			555,962.0	449,104.0	464,518.0
	Paris Club		448,241.0	312,273.0	324,394.0
		Of which
Pre cut-off date			371,429.0	224,549.0	232,741.0
Post cut-off date			76,812.0	87,724.0	91,654.0
Excluding Paris Club			107,720.0	135,805.0	140,124.0
Commercial			733.0	1,026.0	1,085.0
TOTAL			959,711.0	874,390.0	897,556.0

35. The bilateral portion of the total external debt is the largest (57.4 percent); however, when arrears are excluded the multilateral share is the largest (52.8 percent). This implies that while the policy adopted consists of accruing arrears, those arrears are for the most part owed to bilateral creditors, with Paris Club creditors holding 82.1 billion FCFA in arrears as of end-2004, compared to Non-Paris Club creditors (342.8 million FCFA) and multilateral creditors, estimated at 12.6 billion CFA.

36. The debt owed to the Paris Club represented 324. 4 billion FCFA in 2003, of which 71.7 percent was pre cut-off date, 28.3 percent was classified as post cut-off date and was not rescheduled under the Paris Club. A non-concessionary rescheduling of the arrears in this category was obtained during the last round of negotiations. It is expected that Italy will offer 100 percent forgiveness at the completion point, while Spain will offer comparable treatment on a case by case basis. An agreement with the IMF will offer the prospect of substantial relief under the initiative in favor of heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCI). However, Guinea-Bissau believes that the treatment of the foreign debt under the HIPCI will not be sufficient to ensure sustainability. The initiative undertaken by the Group of Eight and confirmed by the general assemblies of the IMF and the World Bank to forgive the multilateral debt of poor countries offers hope. The problem for Guinea-Bissau will be to take advantage of this additional multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI) as soon as possible.

37. The debt owed to non-Paris Club creditors represents nearly 30.2 percent of the bilateral debt. This category benefited from forgiveness of the debt extended by Cuba and the People’s Republic of China. The negotiations to obtain HIPCI relief from the other creditors, particularly the three Arab funds, have not yet been successful.

38. While the total amount of the domestic debt has not been confirmed yet, preliminary estimates indicate a sum of 62.7 billion CFA as of end-2003. Approximately 82 percent of this total represents domestic arrears. This amount represents a major budgetary challenge for the government since its resources are limited. Considering Government revenues (approximately 30 billion FCFA for the year) and the GDP (150 billion FCFA), the sum of 80 billion in domestic arrears seems enormous and beyond Guinea-Bissau’s absorption capacity, not mentioning the burden of the foreign debt.

Table 5.

Total domestic arrears

(in million CFA)

Table 5.

Total domestic arrears

(in million CFA)

	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Outstanding, audit as if 12/31/99	20.300,0
Salaries and sundry bonuses		1.251,0	190,5	729,6	6.973,6
Acquisitions of goods and services		5.621,9	2.140,3	2.980,4	7.674,4
Embassies		595,3	137,8	560,1	98,8
Restitution		967,2	192.7	34,0	781,4
Memorandum account		3,4	187.9	15,1	19,6
Subtotal	20.300,0	8.438,8	2.849,2	4.319,2	15.547,7
Total		28.738,8	31.588	35.907,2	51.454,9
Arrears 1999 elections					315,9
Arrears 2004 elections					323,4
Stipend arrears					69,3
Counterparty funds					1.860,2
Unpaid IOUs					4.844,1
Direction Plan Balance					3.877,3
Subtotal	20.300,0	28.738,8	31.588	35.907,2	11.290,2
Total	20.300,0	28.738,8	31.588	35.907,2	62.745,2

View Table

Table 5.

Total domestic arrears

(in million CFA)

	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003
Outstanding, audit as if 12/31/99	20.300,0
Salaries and sundry bonuses		1.251,0	190,5	729,6	6.973,6
Acquisitions of goods and services		5.621,9	2.140,3	2.980,4	7.674,4
Embassies		595,3	137,8	560,1	98,8
Restitution		967,2	192.7	34,0	781,4
Memorandum account		3,4	187.9	15,1	19,6
Subtotal	20.300,0	8.438,8	2.849,2	4.319,2	15.547,7
Total		28.738,8	31.588	35.907,2	51.454,9
Arrears 1999 elections					315,9
Arrears 2004 elections					323,4
Stipend arrears					69,3
Counterparty funds					1.860,2
Unpaid IOUs					4.844,1
Direction Plan Balance					3.877,3
Subtotal	20.300,0	28.738,8	31.588	35.907,2	11.290,2
Total	20.300,0	28.738,8	31.588	35.907,2	62.745,2

39. The external sector is constrained by the country’s weak export capacity. While exports covered imports in 2000 and 2001 in their entirety, in 2002, 2003 and 2004 they only covered 93.1 percent, 99.8 percent and 94.1 percent, respectively. The balance of payment’s balance of services as a share of GDP was -14.3 percent in 2003 and -16.9 percent in 2004. The trade deficits, along with the services deficit, resulted in an external current account deficit during the period: -14.3 percent in 2002, -10.2 percent in 2003 and -15 percent in 2004. The flows of aid and the accumulation of external arrears resulted in an overall balance of payment surplus during the period 2000-2004.

E. 3.2 Poor access to infrastructures and basic social services

Education and poverty

42. Education is at the center of the poverty debate in Guinea-Bissau. The sector is characterized by poor performance and a lack of human, material and financial resources. The financial resources allocated to education in the Government Budget declined sharply from 15 percent in 1987 to 10 percent in 1995. This is equivalent to 0.9 percent of GDP, compared to the average for sub-Saharan Africa, which was 4 percent of GDP over the same period. The situation has deteriorated much rapidly in recent years with a share of 11.2 percent in 2001 and 13.1 percent in 2004 (2.2 percent and 2.5 percent of GDP, respectively).

43. The net enrollment rate (NER) by region, sex and the equality index in the age category 7 to 12 years (data for the school year 1999/2000) is 53.5 percent for boys and 36.3 percent for girls. The gross enrollment rate (GER) by region, sex and the equality index in the age category 7 to 12 years yields an equality index of 0.7. The net enrollment rate has improved overall, but is still far from primary education for all. Enrollment has improved in seven regions of the country (Biombo, Cacheu, Oio, Bafata, Quinara, Gabu and Tombali) and deteriorated in the autonomous sector of Bissau and in Bolama (see Table 6). However, the regions of Gabu and Oio, like the autonomous sector of Bissau and Bolama, have lower than average enrollment rates.

Table 6.

Net primary enrollment rate by gender and by region

Source: RPF

Table 6.

Net primary enrollment rate by gender and by region

1999/00					2003/04
Regions	M	F	MF	M	F	MF
BISSAU	50.2	52.4	51.2	45.4	43.6	44.4
Biombo	93.5	67.2	79. 9	89.9	83.8	87.0
Cacheu	70.0	38.4	53.3	71.0	64.2	67.8
Oio	55.1	25.0	39.8	50.0	41.7	46.2
Bafatá	34.2	20.3	27.0	57.1	60.0	58.5
Gabú	43.6	29.4	36.3	52.1	56.4	54.2
Quinara	53.3	28.6	40.6	60.2	59.2	59.8
Tombali	56.1	32.4	43.8	76.6	77.5	77.0
Bolama	76.7	59.2	67.8	53.9	51.5	52.7
Nat. Total	51.7	38.5	45.3	58.0	55.9	56.9

Source: RPF

View Table

Table 6.

Net primary enrollment rate by gender and by region

1999/00					2003/04
Regions	M	F	MF	M	F	MF
BISSAU	50.2	52.4	51.2	45.4	43.6	44.4
Biombo	93.5	67.2	79. 9	89.9	83.8	87.0
Cacheu	70.0	38.4	53.3	71.0	64.2	67.8
Oio	55.1	25.0	39.8	50.0	41.7	46.2
Bafatá	34.2	20.3	27.0	57.1	60.0	58.5
Gabú	43.6	29.4	36.3	52.1	56.4	54.2
Quinara	53.3	28.6	40.6	60.2	59.2	59.8
Tombali	56.1	32.4	43.8	76.6	77.5	77.0
Bolama	76.7	59.2	67.8	53.9	51.5	52.7
Nat. Total	51.7	38.5	45.3	58.0	55.9	56.9

Source: RPF

44. The enrollment of girls has progressed significantly except in the autonomous sector of Bissau and in Bolama. The girl/boy ratio has improved throughout the country from 0.7 in 1999-00 to 0.8 in 2003-05. The improvement of this index has been notable in all regions except in the autonomous sector of Bissau, where equality had already been achieved. Despite the efforts put forth to achieve gender equality in primary education, the country has been slow to do so.

45. The expected years of enrollment is 3.6 years, and less for the following regions, which have significant retention and dropout problems: Gabú, 1.8; Bafatá. 2.1; Oio. 3.1; Tombali. 3.3. Girls remain in the educational system for a shorter time, due to socio-cultural and economic factors, particularly female excision, marriage and early motherhood, and girl’s participation in income-generating activities. Early childhood, an important stage for the child’s socialization, is the period for preschool education from 3 to 6 years of age, with an insufficient coverage rate (2.3 percent).

46. In terms of access, the data indicate the existence of incomplete school cycles, which do not cover the four years of the primary cycle of six classes of basic education. In 1999/2000, the student/classroom ratio was 64; it rose to 90 in 2001/2002. Nearly 52 percent of the students in primary education are concentrated in the first and second years. Only 56.6 percent of schools offer a cycle of four classes.

47. With respect to the technical and pedagogical qualifications of the teachers, only 40.5 percent of teachers of basic education have diplomas. The student/teacher ratio is 39, but is estimated at 96 in terms of students per trained teacher. The quality of the teachers of basic education, recruited for the most part with the academic level of primary instruction, continues to be a concern.

48. In 1999, the number of establishments offering secondary education increased to 27 (17 public and 10 private), serving 26,000 students. With respect to the professional training of adolescents and adults, out of approximately 305,000 adolescents and adults 15 to 29 years of age, 1,332 attend the 4 teacher training schools that exist in the country, 8,783 continue their secondary studies and the rest enter the informal labor market early, without appropriate preparation.

49. The adult illiteracy rate is estimated at 63.4 percent, 76.2 percent for women and 47.4 percent for men (INEC - ILAP data). It is believed that this high index may be one of the causes for the low school attendance rate for children and girls in particular.

F. 4.1 The long- and medium-term outlook

65. The strategy for the fight against poverty was inspired by the options determined by Guineans in the long-term forward-looking study “Djitu ten”, whose timeline runs through 2025. In order to meet the challenges posed by the delay in terms of development and the promotion of well-being of the populations, the long term view offered by the Djitu ten approach, based on the rational assessment of domestic efforts and potentialities, to make Guinea-Bissau: (i) a well-governed country with institutions for balance and control of powers, a decentralized administration that values merit; (ii) a country with an environment favorable to sustainable economic growth, good distribution of income and integrated into the sub region; (iii) a country with well-trained human resources adapted to its needs; (iv) a country with self-sufficiency in food and an exporter of grains in the sub region; (v) a country with rational management of its natural resources and greater environmental awareness among its citizens; (vi) a peaceful country with diversity, that values its cultural patrimony and ensures equality of opportunities between sexes; (vii) a strong country, economically independent, with good infrastructures; (viii) a country with a democratic system that stimulates participation by its citizens in basic decisions and achievement of the rule of law.

66. The strategies outlined in “Djitu ten” for achieving the long-term vision were laid out as follows: (i) implement a system of governance facilitating the creation of a climate favorable to development, and rational, efficient and transparent use of public assets and human resources with a strong emphasis on accountability; (ii) ensure a good education and training of human resources; (iii) ensure the existence of a democratic, pluralist, participatory, stable system; (iv) ensure the mobilization and rational use of natural, human and financial resources for sustainable economic growth; (v) construct the social and infrastructural bases for sustainable development.

67. The Government poverty reduction strategy is harmoniously integrated into the vision of the “Djitu ten”. Taking into account subsequent trends, particularly the rupture caused by the 1998-1999 war and its consequences implies the integration of elements indispensable for the building of peace, national reconstruction, reconciliation and preventing the resurgence of conflict. The strategy aims at building peace and consolidating the rule of law and regional integration so as to meet the challenges of globalization in the context of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD).

68. As shown by the NPRSP participatory diagnostic process, the elimination of poverty requires a broader approach that takes into account economic, social and institutional concerns as well as cultural and environmental aspects. From this perspective, cross-cutting issues (such as governance, corruption, human rights, gender equality, HIV/AIDS, institutional capacity, conservation of the environment, etc) require a particular attention.

69. The structural nature of poverty, which requires immediate as well as medium- and long-term actions, requires a phased approach, since intervention must be progressive, taking into account the capacity to create the conditions for accelerated growth, and external constraints in the area of the mobilization of resources.

70. In a first phase that will cover the period 2006-2008, for which the perspective is post-conflict rebuilding, efforts will concentrate on the implementation of measures and actions with immediate, visible effects for poor people. Beyond the assurance of macroeconomic stability, the actions to be implemented will concentrate on the key sectors of the economy, particularly agriculture, fishing, basic infrastructures and those that support production, microfinance, etc., which are likely to have a significant impact on growth. The quantitative and qualitative improvement of the supply of social services will be the lever for the development of human capital. In a second phase, based on the assessment of the first phase, the actions intended to achieve medium-term goals will be defined.

71. The reform of the security sector as set forth in the NPRSP focuses on the one hand on demobilization and improvement of living conditions in the military barracks, and on the other hand on the transformation of the armed forces into stakeholders for pacification and consolidation of the rule of law. The reform of the security forces will be carried out in a consensual context of dialogue and consultation among all the parties involved. This will be based on a transparent assessment of the situation of the military and the paramilitary (police and gendarmes). The demobilization and reintegration effort will be implemented through an incentive system.

G. 4.2 The medium- and long-term goals

72. The long-term goals of the poverty reduction strategy are stated in the development program agreed upon with the international community. The poverty rate projected for 2005, estimated at 68.5% is a projection of the rate for 2002, derived from the decrease in income per inhabitant (see the hypothesis cited below.) Thus, the goals that guide the strategy are: (i) reduce the incidence of generalized poverty, which will go from 68.5% in 2005 to 65.9% in 2008, 64.1% in 2010 and 59.7% in 2015; (ii) reduce extreme poverty from 22% in 2005 to 21.2% in 2008, 20.6% in 2010 and 19.2% in 2015; (iii) accelerate the achievement of the millennium goals for development because of the considerable delays experience up to now; (iv) develop infrastructure to support production.

73. In the education sector, it is necessary to promote: (i) the expansion and improvement of access to education with a view to making basic education universal, achieving in 2007 the rate of 83%, and in 2015 approximately 98% for children for whom the current admission rate is 77.8% (RPF/2000), (ii) improvement of the internal efficiency of the system, raising the ratio of children who finish primary school to 25%, (iii) improvement in the rate of girls who finish basic education, eliminating the disparities in primary and secondary education and achieving equality by 2015.

74. With regard to health and drinking water, it is necessary to: (i) reduce the infant mortality rate from 122 per thousand in 2004 to 112.9 in 2006, 104.5 in 2008 and 79.7 deaths per thousand in 2015; (ii) reduce the infant-juvenile or under-5 child mortality rate from 205.2 deaths per thousand in 2004, to 189.9 in 2006, 169.1 in 2008 and to 134 deaths per thousand in 2004, 800 in 2006, 752 in 2008 to 525 in 2015; (iv) substantially increase access to drinking water through connection to piped water and public fountains in the cities and to protected wells in the villages.

75. The main objectives of the NPRSP, in the absence of exogenous shocks, include on the one hand the definition of the macroeconomic context outlined with the IMF Technical Team in June 2004 and review in the context of the Staff-Monitored Programs (SMP) (April-December 2005 and 2006), and on the other hand, the 2005-07 Multiyear Convergence Program which falls within the context of the WAEMU’s Convergence, Growth and Solidarity Pact. It is worth noting that the macroeconomic framework of the 2004 SMP and the Multiyear Convergence Program projected a slow and gradual recovery of the economy in the medium-term. The real GDP growth rate projected for the period 2006-2008 was 5% with a real growth rate per capita of approximately 2.5% per year on average. The macroeconomic framework of the NPRSP is based on a slightly more optimistic outlook for mobilizing resources to jumpstart economic growth, reduce poverty, and progressively achieve the MDGs. The NPRSP will cover the period 2006-08 and will include a transitory phase of one year as outlined in the action plan for 2005. This will be followed by a multiyear action to be implemented during the period 2006-08. The main objectives of the NPRSP under the multiyear action plan are the following: (i) ensure an average annual growth rate of at least 5% over the period, (ii) limit the average annual inflation rate to 3%, (iii) reduce the nationwide poverty incidence from 68.5% in 2005 to 65.9% in 2008, 64.1% in 2010 and 59.7% in 2015 and the extreme poverty rate from 22% in 2005 to 21.2% in 2008, 20.6% in 2010 and 19.2% in 2015.

H. 4.3 Underlying assumptions

76. Guinea-Bissau is a poor and at the same time a heavily indebted country. It is also a country where the MDGs are at risk of not being achieve within the timeframes set forth. The delays are considerable. At the current pace, none of the seven MDGs will be achieved by 2015. That is why the NPRSP through strong, accelerated growth, and well-defined structural reforms should facilitate closing the gaps within a reasonable timeframe. Thus, the setting of the reduction of poverty goals for that horizon is based on the following assumptions and conditions:

• The average real GDP growth rate set for the period 2006-2008 is at least 5% with a demographic growth rate of approximately 2.2%: the average growth rate per inhabitant will thus be established between 2% and 2.8 %;

• Assuming that income inequality will remain low and stable, it is expected that each 1% increase in real GDP per capita would translate into at least 0.5% reduction in the incidence of poverty;

• New job creation will represent the main transmission channel through which growth will sustainably reduce poverty;

• The average investment rate expected to generate 5% growth per year is estimated at approximately 20% per year. However, based on the mobilization of the resources called for in the context of the donor round table, the government hopes to exceed that level; however, in the event of investment delays the growth impact will be felt only after 2008;

• Strong mobilization of external resources is envisaged. It will facilitate the progressive strengthening of the capacities for the mobilization of internal resources;

• Transfers from emigrants are assumed to continue at levels that will facilitate the generating of positive domestic savings, which will serve to finance investments in the domestic private sector;

• During the NPRSP implementation, the government intends to carry out efforts to broaden the tax base and reduce budget deficits;

• Guinea-Bissau hopes to benefit from the support called for under the HIPC initiative, and the decision by the Group of Eight to forgive the multilateral debt of poor countries, and from the requirements in view of the post-conflict reconstruction.

I. 4.4 Sociopolitical prerequisites and the reform of the security sector

77. Based on the above retrospective analysis, it is evident that a key determinant of poverty is instability and the recurrence of violence as evidenced by repeated coups d’etat and armed conflicts. This situation contributed has hindered the realization of development programs and projects and continually weakened the already fragile institutions and infrastructure. Therefore, the prerequisites to make the poverty reduction strategy viable lie in the fostering of stability, good governance, reconciliation and peace consolidation in order to create the conditions to prevent a return to armed conflicts.

78. Guinea-Bissau’s commitment to creating the conditions necessary for stability has already been demonstrated with the realization of the political transition of the past three years aimed at reestablishing constitutional rules. During this period, free and transparent legislative elections were successfully held in March and April 2004. The constitutional government, operating since May 2004, with the support of bilateral and multilateral partners, held presidential elections within a reasonable timeframe, in the third quarter of 2005. The investiture of the newly elected President of the Republic organized on October 1 in a republican context, brought to a close the transition process begun following the September 14, 2003 coup d’état. Moreover, the Government’s program envisions the holding of local elections to complete the cycle of democratic consultations and to consolidate the democratic process through broad civil participation by the population from the outset.

79. In order to lessen the intensity of potential conflicts, the Government will foster reconciliation among the various former factions of the armed forces and the social forces that were involved in the political and military crises of the past. This reconciliation will be extended to all components of society in order to create the conditions for lasting peace. From this perspective, the Government, in collaboration with all the sovereign entities, will foster the building of a consensus of political and social forces around the questions of vital interest to the future of the nation. A reform of the security sector (RSS) that will be undertaken through a large consensus will foster the rebuilding of lasting peace and thus the conditions for human development.

80. The Government will continue the demobilization and social reinsertion of the former combatants in order to restructure the armed forces based on the country’s actual needs and financial capacity, and to eliminate hotbeds of tension likely to reignite violence. In parallel with the restructuring of the army, the Government intends to profoundly reform the armed forces in order to cement their submission to the political institutions and transform them into a republican army that abides to democratic institutions.

81. This policy of pacification, intended to eliminate threats to stability, would diminish the risks of a return to violence and to make the peace consolidation process irreversible. This policy will have a sub regional component, since Guinea-Bissau is a major stakeholder in sub regional peace processes. Domestic peace and stability in Guinea-Bissau will have positive effects on the process of stabilization and pacification of the neighboring countries, eliminating the potential hotbeds of destabilization in the sub region, which has already been deeply affected by many conflicts of recent years.

82. In positioning itself as a stakeholder in domestic and sub regional pacification and stabilization, Guinea-Bissau will learn to value the fact that it is a melting pot at the crossroads of people, civilizations and cultures in the sub region. Thus, the country will be able to serve as a source of union, a source of balance and a catalyst for the process of regional integration.

J. 4.5 The main stakeholders

K. 5.1. Strengthen governance, modernize the public administration and ensuring macroeconomic stability

5.2. Promote economic growth and job creation

L. 5.3. Increase access to social services and basic infrastructure

M.

N. 5.4. Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups

164. The vulnerable groups that the strategy addresses are people who have no means to solve their daily basic needs due to the lack of income or resources, or people who are confronted with specific situations that endanger their lives and/or physical integrity. In this latter category, there are in particular the victims of landmines and other explosives. This type of vulnerability can be structural or temporary, and is determined by the local and national environment. Vulnerable groups are identified not just by their limited resources for subsistence, but also by the geographical areas in which they reside, because most of them live in rural areas and outlying urban areas. Vulnerable groups also belong to specific social categories such as: children, women, the handicapped (especially victims of landmines and other explosives), youth, war veterans and the elderly.

165. The policies to improve the situation of vulnerable groups aim to: (i) increase access to social services, (ii) develop programs to assist with income-generating activities in the area of economically integrating the most vulnerable populations, mainly through microlending and community development.

166. Improving the access of the most vulnerable populations to social services assumes that infrastructure will be expanded, in particular in education and health, and improving the operations of health and educational systems. The promotion of economic and social integration for vulnerable groups requires the development of a Social Action Fund, the implementation of systems to monitor and evaluate the impact of projects on the target groups, and building the capacities of the base communities, groups and associations.

167. The program to assist children will have the following priorities: (i) provide schools with school cafeterias for rural and outlying urban areas, (ii) develop programs to fight malnutrition, (iii) strengthen intervention programs for street children and working children and eliminate the worst types of labor, (iv) improve the enforcement of agreements on the protection of children’s rights, and (v) build the capacities of institutions that protect children, in particular the Women’s and Children’s Institute (Institut de la Femme and de l’Enfant).

168. With regard to the handicapped the intervention includes: (i) improving the legislation and protection of the handicapped from discrimination or aggression; (ii) providing health assistance to the handicapped; (iii) promoting education and training for the handicapped; (iv) fostering economic and social integration for the handicapped. For victims of mines and/or other explosives, specific programs must be planned for them in order to ensure their physical and psychological rehabilitation, and their integration into the communities. For this purpose, it is necessary to: (i) support the health system to increase emergency first-aid capacity in case of accidents caused by landmines and other explosives; (ii) train specialists in the area of psychological, physical and social rehabilitation for victims of landmines and other explosives; (iii) strengthen the rights of victims of landmines and other explosives, primarily by providing for their treatment and potential compensation; (iv) prevent accidents caused by landmines and other explosives by raising the awareness and educating of rural populations (particularly children) on the risks of landmines and other explosives. The border region with Senegal and Guinea will need to be cleaned of all landmines.

169. For war veterans and senior citizens, the intervention will emphasize: (i) identifying and implementing social protection systems; (ii) increasing the income of retirees by revising the pension system.

170. Programs for young people of both sexes are planned since youth in rural areas experience considerable difficulties in becoming integrated into a society that is still heavily marked by tradition. The main strategic objective to reduce the rural exodus of youth is to improve living conditions in rural areas by: (i) creating youth and adult training and qualification centers in an equitable manner; (ii) supporting farming and/or farming-related activities; (iii) creating infrastructures to end isolation; (iv) upgrading supply in the area of education, health and water resources; (v) creating an adequate lending system for youth; (vi) raising the awareness of the populations, particularly local officials, as to the necessity of giving youths access to the land so that they can grow cash crops.

171. The creation of a Social Action Fund in conjunction with the savings and lending program seeks to: (i) make a source of financing available to developers of income-generating activities so that they can develop a productive and profitable business operation; (ii) institute a responsible, effective and transparent service so that the different domestic and international partners are able to materialize their contribution to the operation of the lending system; (iii) stimulate savings to ensure the stable development and autonomy of the system; (iv) adopt strict, transparent and effective standards for managing the available resources of the system as essential components for the sustainability of the Fund Management Commission; (v) involve civil society in the selection of programs and projects to be financed out of the Fund’s budget; (vi) allocate 3 to 5% of the budget to supervising the impact of disbursements from the Social Action Fund.

172. The promotion of SMEs and jobs is an important component of accelerated growth and poverty reduction. This will contribute to lowering unemployment, especially among women and youth, who are more affected by poverty, through self-employment and assistance for private or association initiatives for the poor. In the country there are several institutions (NGOs) that are dedicated to lending and savings. In the Ministry of Finance there is also a department known as Parmec whose fundamental role is to coordinate and support these decentralized financial organizations.

173. By acknowledging that small operators find it difficult to access loans, and operate essentially with their individual savings or informal loans made available to them at exorbitant rates with a negative impact on the potential for creating jobs, it is necessary to stimulate savings and lending through effective and sustainable lending systems.

174. The priority measures in this area must include the following among others: the development of labor-intensive programs in urban and rural areas; vocational education; intensification of youth integration programs in coordination with the private sector; upgrading the job information system; the institutionalization, in coordination with the NGOs, of microlending programs; strengthening the microlending coordination organization so that it is able to carry out its role.

175. To reverse the negative trend of female participation and allow better involvement of women development activities, the following actions will be necessary: making considerable improvements in the social, economic and legal status of women, by promoting more participation in national development. The main objectives that arise from this are as follows: (i) make it easier for women to carry out tasks, especially in rural areas; (ii) shorten working time for women and raise their incomes; (iii) develop programs for women while preserving family and community balance.

176. In order to allow women to contribute significantly to reducing poverty, the following specific objectives have been identified: (i) develop awareness-raising and mobilization programs at several levels of the society in an effort to change mentalities and attitudes regarding women; (ii) improve the socioeconomic status of women; (iii) give women easier access to resources; (iv) raise education and training levels for women; (v) improve health conditions for women by fighting morbidity and mortality related to reproduction; (vi) harmonize domestic legislation in accordance with ratified international conventions; and (vii) improve the representation of women in every sector of public life.

177. Based on these objectives, the following strategies have been set: (i) simultaneously build women’s productive and organizational capacities; (ii) increase the level of information, training and participation for women; (iii) improve the status of women in the statutes and in society, and integrate them into national development programs. The strategies established to reduce poverty pertain to women, both in rural areas and urban areas, in a context marked by the prospect of decentralization and capacity-building for governance.

6.1. Institutional monitoring framework

179. The NPRSP implementation and monitoring process will encourage the involvement of all stakeholders concerned, both technically and in terms of policy. The Ministry of the Economy will provide technical coordination for the NPRSP Implementation and Monitoring Unit (IMU). The entire NPRSP monitoring and implementation process will be overseen by a Steering Committee chaired by the Prime Minister. This committee will periodically monitor the preparation of quarterly and annual reports, hold meetings with the members of the Government and development partners to generally guide the process, monitor fundraising levels and identify policy difficulties in order to determine the ways and means to overcome them. At the technical level, the IMU will be coordinated by the Ministry of the Economy in partnership with the Ministry of Social and Family Solidarity and Poverty Alleviation, with the participation of the different stakeholders, in particular the State institutions as well as private and civil society institutions, such as trade unions, NGOs and local associations. The Ministry of the Economy will submit a twice-yearly monitoring report to the sessions of the Management Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister. The IMU will be a permanent organization that will ensure the continuity of the NPRSP implementation. To this end, it will serve as liaison with the implementing organizations and entities, for day-to-day relationships with national and development partners, and focal points and organizations in the field (regional and sectoral committees and local communities). To ensure that the performance of the IMU’s mission is of high quality, its staff will be hired based on a competition and will enjoy stable employment conditions as civil servants of the State.

180. The local communities that benefit from the strategy and their elected representatives or leaders of civil society will play an active role in the IMU. Participation means that the beneficiaries are effectively involved in the decision-making and program-implementation processes. As part of this participation, a framework will be created that is appropriate for the representativeness of all the parties, including the Government, civil society, local communities, the private sector, donors, etc. All stakeholders are expected to intervene in the process, including in programming and the auditing expenditures. Improving knowledge and local potential in the poverty reduction strategy is critical for laying the groundwork for efficient use of domestic resources that support local initiatives for decentralization. Transparency and accountability require the creation of sound supervisory mechanisms. Efficiency and synergy assume that priority will be placed on the cost-benefit relationship of the interventions and on its feasibility and complementarity. Equity implies equal rights and responsibilities for all stakeholders, taking into consideration gender differences and social and regional asymmetries.

6.2. Monitoring-evaluation content

181. The NPRSP implementation will be monitored and evaluated on the basis of a multiyear action plan for 2006-08 to check that the activities planned by pillar and sub-pillar are effectively carried out. For 2005, which was considered a transitional phase, a priority program plan was prepared. Each Activity Implementation Unit will prepare periodic quarterly reports to be reviewed by the ministry’s Research and Planning Department (GEP) before the report is transmitted to the IMU’s technical secretariat. The IMU’s feedback will allow taking necessary corrective measures that will be discussed with the Government and the Steering Committee.

182. The monitoring of the NPRSP will be carried out through progress reports of the multiyear program plan. This will be supplemented by a data collection work for the purpose of generating monitoring indicator tables by pillar. The analysis of these indicators will make it possible to gradually evaluate the NPRSP mid-term implementation results. The expected effects of the NPRSP implementation will be reflected by specific indicators in the scoreboard below (Table 7) for monitoring the indicators of the Millennium Development Goals. The NPRSP’s economic and financial performances will be monitored using indicators in Table 7, projecting the main macroeconomic results during the implementation phase. The monitoring process will also include the production of a detailed report on the implementation of the 2006-08 multiyear action plan. The presentation of the mid-term results by pillar and annual activities will be an important part of the monitoring reports. The performance and monitoring indicators used in these tables also address concerns of data availability, simplicity and reliability.

Table 7.

Scoreboard for monitoring the Millennium Development Goal indicators

Table 7.

Scoreboard for monitoring the Millennium Development Goal indicators

Objectives	Indicators	2002	2005	2006	2007	2008	2010	Target for 2015
1. Lower extreme poverty and food insecurity
Lower by half the percentage of the population living on less than one dollar per day	Absolute poverty rate (%)	64.7	68.5	67.8	66.8	65.9	64.1	59.7
	Extreme poverty rate (%)	20.8	22.0	21.8	21.5	21.2	20.6	19.2
Lower by half the percentage of the population that suffers from hunger	Underweight (children less than 5 years old) (%)	27	--	--	--	--	--	--
2. Ensure primary education for all
Provide all children with the means to complete a full cycle of primary schooling	Net enrolment rate (%)	50.6	62.8	66	69.4	72.6	80.5	100
	Percentage of children that complete the primary cycle (%)	33	35	--	--	85	90	100
	Average duration of studies for students that complete the cycle	8.5	8	7.5	7.3	7.1	6.7	6
3. Promote gender equality and women’s empowerment
Eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education by 2005 [sic]	Net girl-to-boy primary enrolment ratio	0.5	0.57	0.62	0.67	0.72	0.82	1
	Net girl-to-boy secondary enrolment ratio	0.44	0.49 --	0.54	0.59	0.64	0.69	1
	Illiteracy rate for women (Women/men) 15-24 years old (%)		--	--	--	--	--	--
			65.1	--	--	--	--	--
	Rate of women in the government (%)	71.3	--	63.3	61.6	60	56.8	38
			11	--	--	--	--	--
		7.8		--	--	--	--	--
4. Reduce mortality for children under 5 years old
Reduce the mortality rate of children under 5 years old by two-thirds	Mortality rate for children under 5 years old (per 1,000 children)	203	197.4	189.9	182.7	175.7	161.1	134.0
	Child mortality rate (per 1,000 children)	122	117.4	112.9	108.6	104.5	96.7	79.7
	Vaccination coverage against measles		95	80	85	90
	Complete vaccination coverage rate for children							100
			87.5	86.2	90	90		100
5. Improve maternal health
Lower the maternal mortality rate by three-quarters	Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 women)	822	809	800.1	791.3	751.7-	678.4	525
6. Fight HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
The spread of HIV/AIDS has been stopped and a reversal in the current trend has begun	AIDS prevalence rate (%)	7.0	--	--	--	--	--	2.5
Malaria and other major diseases have been controlled, and a reversal in the current trend has begun	Trend in malaria cases (prevalence)	15.0	18.1	--	--	---	--	15.0
	Trend in the incidence of tuberculosis (per 100.000)	54.4	87	--	--	--	--	50
7. Ensure a sustainable environment
Incorporate the principles of sustainable development into national policies and reverse the current trend of the loss of environmental resources	Percentage of forest areas (%)	55.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
	Units of energy consumed per capita (Kep)	300	--	--	--	--	--	--
Reduce by half the percentage of the population that has no sustainable access to healthy drinking water supplies	Percentage of the population with sustainable access to drinking water supply	54.6	--	--	--	--	--	80.0
	Percentage of the population with access to water supply in the home	5.1	--	--	--	--	--	--
		--	--	--	--	--	--	--
		35.0	--	--	--	--	--	--

View Table

Table 7.

Scoreboard for monitoring the Millennium Development Goal indicators

Objectives	Indicators	2002	2005	2006	2007	2008	2010	Target for 2015
1. Lower extreme poverty and food insecurity
Lower by half the percentage of the population living on less than one dollar per day	Absolute poverty rate (%)	64.7	68.5	67.8	66.8	65.9	64.1	59.7
	Extreme poverty rate (%)	20.8	22.0	21.8	21.5	21.2	20.6	19.2
Lower by half the percentage of the population that suffers from hunger	Underweight (children less than 5 years old) (%)	27	--	--	--	--	--	--
2. Ensure primary education for all
Provide all children with the means to complete a full cycle of primary schooling	Net enrolment rate (%)	50.6	62.8	66	69.4	72.6	80.5	100
	Percentage of children that complete the primary cycle (%)	33	35	--	--	85	90	100
	Average duration of studies for students that complete the cycle	8.5	8	7.5	7.3	7.1	6.7	6
3. Promote gender equality and women’s empowerment
Eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education by 2005 [sic]	Net girl-to-boy primary enrolment ratio	0.5	0.57	0.62	0.67	0.72	0.82	1
	Net girl-to-boy secondary enrolment ratio	0.44	0.49 --	0.54	0.59	0.64	0.69	1
	Illiteracy rate for women (Women/men) 15-24 years old (%)		--	--	--	--	--	--
			65.1	--	--	--	--	--
	Rate of women in the government (%)	71.3	--	63.3	61.6	60	56.8	38
			11	--	--	--	--	--
		7.8		--	--	--	--	--
4. Reduce mortality for children under 5 years old
Reduce the mortality rate of children under 5 years old by two-thirds	Mortality rate for children under 5 years old (per 1,000 children)	203	197.4	189.9	182.7	175.7	161.1	134.0
	Child mortality rate (per 1,000 children)	122	117.4	112.9	108.6	104.5	96.7	79.7
	Vaccination coverage against measles		95	80	85	90
	Complete vaccination coverage rate for children							100
			87.5	86.2	90	90		100
5. Improve maternal health
Lower the maternal mortality rate by three-quarters	Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 women)	822	809	800.1	791.3	751.7-	678.4	525
6. Fight HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
The spread of HIV/AIDS has been stopped and a reversal in the current trend has begun	AIDS prevalence rate (%)	7.0	--	--	--	--	--	2.5
Malaria and other major diseases have been controlled, and a reversal in the current trend has begun	Trend in malaria cases (prevalence)	15.0	18.1	--	--	---	--	15.0
	Trend in the incidence of tuberculosis (per 100.000)	54.4	87	--	--	--	--	50
7. Ensure a sustainable environment
Incorporate the principles of sustainable development into national policies and reverse the current trend of the loss of environmental resources	Percentage of forest areas (%)	55.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
	Units of energy consumed per capita (Kep)	300	--	--	--	--	--	--
Reduce by half the percentage of the population that has no sustainable access to healthy drinking water supplies	Percentage of the population with sustainable access to drinking water supply	54.6	--	--	--	--	--	80.0
	Percentage of the population with access to water supply in the home	5.1	--	--	--	--	--	--
		--	--	--	--	--	--	--
		35.0	--	--	--	--	--	--

183. Implementing the strategy involves financial and human resources management. They will be monitored through the Government’s annual budgets and the Public Investment Program (PIP). Emphasis will be placed not only on the efficient uses of resources, and hence on building absorption capacity, but also on the impact of funds spent in the field. In the medium term, Guinea-Bissau wants to commit to developing strategic instruments to manage its public expenditures through an initiation to the medium-term public expenditures framework. In this way, human resources will be strengthened to develop their capabilities to master the instruments for efficiently and strategically managing its expenditures and public resources.

O. 6.3. Monitoring-evaluation methodology and the production of monitoring reports

184. Monitoring and evaluation information will be collected from producers of basic statistics. These include ministries, regional departments, etc., the Central Bank (BCEAO) and the National Statistics and Census Institute. Nonetheless, it will be necessary to supplement the information by conducting general surveys or surveys in the poorest areas to monitor the dynamics of poverty. For each type of survey, appropriate methodologies will be identified. The cost of the surveys is such that Guinea-Bissau feels it is important to conduct a general census of the population at the mid-term point of the NPRSP implementation to obtain baseline statistics essential for preparing economic and social policies. A quantitative survey of poverty will be conducted as the NPRSP concludes to measure the general impact of implementing the strategy and also to prepare the revision or strengthening of the strategy after 2008.

185 The main monitoring instruments will be the following: reports, surveys and studies. During the NPRSP implementation, quarterly, twice-yearly and annual reports will be prepared. The quarterly reports will be prepared for each sector and will contain information on the status of program implementation by sector. Each sector will prepare its report and send it to the NPRSP Implementation and Monitoring Unit, which will in turn prepare the comprehensive quarterly report and send it to the Management Committee. The IMU will prepare the quarterly and annual reports and they will be submitted to the Monitoring Committee, the World Bank, the ADB, the UNDP, the European Union, the WAEMU, and to other bilateral and multilateral cooperation agencies.

6.4. The statistical information and capacity-building system of monitoring organizations

186. The logic that supports the development of the monitoring framework is the necessity of: (i) building long-term poverty monitoring/evaluation capacities as a requirement for ensuring the continuity, sustainability and survivability of the system in the organizations in charge of designing, managing and developing sector policies; (ii) developing national capacities to evaluate the impacts of development policies, results and program effects; iii) ensuring the autonomy, objectivity and credibility of the monitoring and policy organizations.

187. The national statistical information system, in which the INEC is situated, must be strengthened in terms of its ability to produce and disseminate official statistical information that meets ever-growing and strict needs in order to achieve the NPRSP and to monitor the MDGs. INEC’s capacities to coordinate organizations that produce sector statistics will be bolstered as well to ensure that the information and indicators are reliable. This strengthening will be achieved through legislation by enacting the necessary laws and regulations and by support in terms of training and equipment.

188. Statistical production must be strengthened to meet the greater needs generated by monitoring the MDGs and NPRSP. Technically speaking, strengthening statistical production must be centered on the most important instruments of coordination: the national accounts and the social scoreboard. The national accounts are the best instrument for integrating and coordinating economic statistics. The social scoreboard must be the central theme for social analyses and policies, as the national accounts must be the pillar for economic policies.

6.5. Risks

189. There are different types of risks inherent in the NPRSP implementation. (i) The first risk is institutional in nature. Institutional stability is important to ensure the successful implementation of the NPRSP. (ii) The second type of risk is related to the technical aspects of the NPRSP implementation. Absorption capacity and monitoring will be a great challenge. (iii) The third risk is obtaining funding to implement the programs planned in the NPRSP which, although they are considered ambitious, are feasible proposals that stem from a major ranking effort and an effort to arrive at a consensus throughout the entire participatory process. (iv) A fourth risk is related to impacts from abroad, and in particular changes in the price of oil, the depreciation of the dollar against the euro, the FCFA reference currency, and the ensuing deterioration of the terms of trade, with inevitable damage to microeconomic balances and a decrease in the growth that is essential for the poverty alleviation strategy to succeed.

190. These risks may be decreased, in particular by: (i) creating a legal and institutional environment that promotes stability and raises domestic and foreign funding to finance the strategy; (ii) strengthening the organization in charge of coordinating the NPRSP implementation and ensuring the coordination and participation of all stakeholders involved; strengthening the organizations involved in carrying out and monitoring the multiyear action plan; (iii) close cooperation with the private sector and other social partners to ensure a stable environment that promotes the sustainable development of growth; (iv) cooperation with the development partners to guarantee the aid necessary to absorb impacts from abroad that could jeopardize growth.

P. 7.1 NPRSP budget and breakdown by main pillar

191. The budgeting for the NPRSP is based on the priority programs as part of the 2006-08 multiyear action plan, regardless of whether or not financing has been secured. The timeframe for implementing the programs, which is three years will certainly change based on changes in the economic and social context.

192. The proposed budgeting reflects the structure and prioritization considered in the NPRSP ⁷, the multiyear action plan and PIP covering each of the strategic pillars of the NPRSP. Expenditures were classified by category according to objective: expenditures intended directly for the poor populations and institutional support, human resources development, structural reforms and sect development. Investments or expenditures for equipment and construction the renovation economic and social infrastructures were grouped into the appropriate category.

193. The exercise was carried out by the General Directorate of Planning of the Ministry of Economy with the participation sectoral departments in a manner consistent with the objectives of the overall strategy. These evaluations will be supplemented by those made in the context of planning for the MDGs as recommended by the United Nations General Assembly in September 2005. The timeframe that will be considered for planning based on the MDGs will cover the period from 2006 to 2015 and perhaps beyond.

194. Funding requirements for the NPRSP for the period 2006-08 are estimated at CFAF 227.7 billion, or USD 441.2 million. Of this amount, 148.4 billion FCFA, or 65.3% of the entire budget, will go toward investments throughout the entire period. The interventions that are intende directly for the poor populations, the different structural and sector reforms, institutional support and human resources development will account for the remainder of the total budget, or 34.7% of the NPRSP’s budget. The annual planned investment amounts to 26.8% of GDP in 2006, 32.5% in 2007 and 21.9% en 2008. As planned in the convergence, growth and solidarity pact, the Government will make the efforts necessary to raise public investment to 20% of tax revenue.

195. The implementation of the NPRSP is expected to stimulate economic activity by increasing the production of goods and services thanks to increased capital and non-capital spending. However, this multiplier effect should not be exaggerated given the poor ability of the economy to supply the goods and services necessary for implementing the strategy. Significant demand for imported goods and services will follow. Although some of the investments will go toward renovating the economic and social infrastructures that were destroyed in the 1998-99 conflict, the may also impact capacity, which would in turn increase the production base in the long run. All of this will have undeniable effects in terms of stimulating growth and job creation, and therefore income opportunities for the in the long run.

Table 8.

NPRSP Financing by Pillars, themes and sub themes

(in FCFA)

Table 8.

NPRSP Financing by Pillars, themes and sub themes

(in FCFA)

Main pillars, themes and sub themes			Years			Total	In %
			2006	2007	2008
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the public administration and ensure macroeconomic stability			2,535,139,500	12,870,609,500	15,378,650,000	30,784,399,000	13.6%
	1.1. Strengthen governance and ensure macroeconomic stability		1,135,000,000	2,298,000,000	3,100,000,000	6,533,000,000	2.9%
		1.1.1. Continue with improvements in budget management	50,000,000	233,000,000	40,000,000	323,000,000
		1.1.2. Strengthen macroeconomic management	1,085,000,000	2,065,000,000	3,060,000,000	6,210,000,000
	1.2. Modernize the administration and build capacities		720,139,500	2,382,609,500	1,773,650,000	4,876,399,000	2.2%
		1.2.1. Reform the public administration	205,000,000	1,955,000,000	1,345,000,000	3,505,000,000
		1.2.2. Build capacities	515,139,500	427,609,500	428,650,000	1,371,399,000
	1.3. Strengthen the Rule of Law/judicial apparatus and support decentralization/social consensus-building		275,000,000	1,160,000,000	3,405,000,000	4,840,000,000	2.1%
		1.3.1. Promote rapid, transparent, accessible and independent justice and strengthen the National People’s Assembly	175,000,000	1,060,000,000	3,305,000,000	4,540,000,000
		1.3.2. Promote local development and social consensus-building	100,000,000	100,000,000	100,000,000	300,000,000
	1.4. Reform the security sector		405,000,000	7,030,000,000	7,100,000,000	14,535,000,000	6.4%
		1.4.1. Demobilize, convert and improve living conditions in the barracks	130,000,000	3,280,000,000	3,850,000,000	7,260,000,000
		1.4.2. Transform the defense and security forces into stakeholders for re-establishing peace and strengthening the Rule of Law	275,000,000	3,750,000,000	3,250,000,000	7,275,000,000
II) Promote economic growth and job creation			31,345,229,929	43,272,110,295	30,015,095,147	104,632,435,371	46.1%
	2.1. Improve the business environment and stimulate the sectors that employ the poor populations		6,818,413,000	9,906,684,000	7,265,908,000	23,991,005,000	10.6%
		2.1.1. Improve the business environment and investment	627,925,000	100,000,000	100,000,000	827,925,000
		2.1.2. Stimulate the productive sectors and promote diversification and economic competitiveness	6,190,488,000	9,806,684,000	7,165,908,000	23,163,080,000
	2.2. Develop the infrastructures that support production		24,526,816,929	33,365,426,295	22,749,187,147	80,641,430,371	35.5%
		2.2.1. Rehabilitate the energy sector	6,488,054,571	6,509,865,141	5,431,963,802	18,429,883,514
		2.2.2. Develop road infrastructures	13,973,043,558	19,932,631,094	9,239,870,675	43,145,545,327
		2.2.3. Support the development of surface and river infrastructures	2,735,373,250	3,980,839,250	5,175,235,000	11,891,447,500
		2.2.4. Support the air, meteorology and telecommunications sectors	1,330,345,550	2,942,090,810	2,902,117,670	7,174,554,030
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures			28,460,258,285	26,678,367,549	20,208,293,613	75,346,919,447	33.1%
	3.1. Improve access to equality education		6,923,208,285	6,679,267,549	4,395,193,613	17,997,669,447	7.9%
		3.1.1. Increase access to primary, secondary and higher education	4,801,954,000	4,750,087,774	2,715,989,323	12,268,031,097
		3.1.2. Provide universal high-quality schooling	2,121,254,285	1,929,179,775	1,679,204,290	5,729,638,350
	3.2. Improve the population’s health status		8,850,350,000	9,010,100,000	6,755,800,000	24,616,250,000	10.8%
		3.2.1. Improve the supply and quality of health services	5,916,050,000	6,105,800,000	3,900,800,000	15,922,650,000
		3.2.2. Fight HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other diseases	681,800,000	651,800,000	602,500,000	1,936,100,000
		3.2.3. Improve the status of mothers and children	2,252,500,000	2,252,500,000	2,252,500,000	6,757,500,000
	3.3. Improve the lifestyle of the populations		12,686,700,000	10,989,000,000	9,057,300,000	32,733,000,000	14.4%
		3.3.1. Improve access to drinking water and sanitation	5,035,000,000	5,414,000,000	5,374,000,000	15,823,000,000
		3.3.2. Improve social housing	7,651,700,000	5,575,000,000	3,683,300,000	16,910,000,000
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups			5,214,572,000	6,223,622,000	5,019,022,000	16,457,216,000	7.2%
	4.1. Promote the socioeconomic integration of vulnerable groups		2,520,250,000	2,891,250,000	2,635,000,000	8,046,500,000	3.5%
		4.1.1. Improve the social protection of vulnerable groups	70,000,000	857,500,000	807,500,000	1,735,000,000
		4.1.2. Promote income-generating activities	2,450,250,000	2,033,750,000	1,827,500,000	6,311,500,000
	4.2. Develop specific programs to support vulnerable groups		2,694,322,000	3,332,372,000	2,384,022,000	8,410,716,000	3.7%
		4.2.1. Promote the creation of reception and monitoring centers and fight illiteracy in women	1,047,250,000	1,385,300,000	1,251,950,000	3,684,500,000
		4.2.2. Promote the practice of sports and renovate the poor areas (shantytowns)	1,647,072,000	1,947,072,000	1,132,072,000	4,726,216,000
		NPRSP TOTAL	67,555,199,714	89,044,709,344	70,621,060,760	227,220,969,818	100%
		NPRSP in USD	131,175,145	172,902,348	137,128,273	441,205,767

View Table

Table 8.

NPRSP Financing by Pillars, themes and sub themes

(in FCFA)

Main pillars, themes and sub themes			Years			Total	In %
			2006	2007	2008
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the public administration and ensure macroeconomic stability			2,535,139,500	12,870,609,500	15,378,650,000	30,784,399,000	13.6%
	1.1. Strengthen governance and ensure macroeconomic stability		1,135,000,000	2,298,000,000	3,100,000,000	6,533,000,000	2.9%
		1.1.1. Continue with improvements in budget management	50,000,000	233,000,000	40,000,000	323,000,000
		1.1.2. Strengthen macroeconomic management	1,085,000,000	2,065,000,000	3,060,000,000	6,210,000,000
	1.2. Modernize the administration and build capacities		720,139,500	2,382,609,500	1,773,650,000	4,876,399,000	2.2%
		1.2.1. Reform the public administration	205,000,000	1,955,000,000	1,345,000,000	3,505,000,000
		1.2.2. Build capacities	515,139,500	427,609,500	428,650,000	1,371,399,000
	1.3. Strengthen the Rule of Law/judicial apparatus and support decentralization/social consensus-building		275,000,000	1,160,000,000	3,405,000,000	4,840,000,000	2.1%
		1.3.1. Promote rapid, transparent, accessible and independent justice and strengthen the National People’s Assembly	175,000,000	1,060,000,000	3,305,000,000	4,540,000,000
		1.3.2. Promote local development and social consensus-building	100,000,000	100,000,000	100,000,000	300,000,000
	1.4. Reform the security sector		405,000,000	7,030,000,000	7,100,000,000	14,535,000,000	6.4%
		1.4.1. Demobilize, convert and improve living conditions in the barracks	130,000,000	3,280,000,000	3,850,000,000	7,260,000,000
		1.4.2. Transform the defense and security forces into stakeholders for re-establishing peace and strengthening the Rule of Law	275,000,000	3,750,000,000	3,250,000,000	7,275,000,000
II) Promote economic growth and job creation			31,345,229,929	43,272,110,295	30,015,095,147	104,632,435,371	46.1%
	2.1. Improve the business environment and stimulate the sectors that employ the poor populations		6,818,413,000	9,906,684,000	7,265,908,000	23,991,005,000	10.6%
		2.1.1. Improve the business environment and investment	627,925,000	100,000,000	100,000,000	827,925,000
		2.1.2. Stimulate the productive sectors and promote diversification and economic competitiveness	6,190,488,000	9,806,684,000	7,165,908,000	23,163,080,000
	2.2. Develop the infrastructures that support production		24,526,816,929	33,365,426,295	22,749,187,147	80,641,430,371	35.5%
		2.2.1. Rehabilitate the energy sector	6,488,054,571	6,509,865,141	5,431,963,802	18,429,883,514
		2.2.2. Develop road infrastructures	13,973,043,558	19,932,631,094	9,239,870,675	43,145,545,327
		2.2.3. Support the development of surface and river infrastructures	2,735,373,250	3,980,839,250	5,175,235,000	11,891,447,500
		2.2.4. Support the air, meteorology and telecommunications sectors	1,330,345,550	2,942,090,810	2,902,117,670	7,174,554,030
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures			28,460,258,285	26,678,367,549	20,208,293,613	75,346,919,447	33.1%
	3.1. Improve access to equality education		6,923,208,285	6,679,267,549	4,395,193,613	17,997,669,447	7.9%
		3.1.1. Increase access to primary, secondary and higher education	4,801,954,000	4,750,087,774	2,715,989,323	12,268,031,097
		3.1.2. Provide universal high-quality schooling	2,121,254,285	1,929,179,775	1,679,204,290	5,729,638,350
	3.2. Improve the population’s health status		8,850,350,000	9,010,100,000	6,755,800,000	24,616,250,000	10.8%
		3.2.1. Improve the supply and quality of health services	5,916,050,000	6,105,800,000	3,900,800,000	15,922,650,000
		3.2.2. Fight HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other diseases	681,800,000	651,800,000	602,500,000	1,936,100,000
		3.2.3. Improve the status of mothers and children	2,252,500,000	2,252,500,000	2,252,500,000	6,757,500,000
	3.3. Improve the lifestyle of the populations		12,686,700,000	10,989,000,000	9,057,300,000	32,733,000,000	14.4%
		3.3.1. Improve access to drinking water and sanitation	5,035,000,000	5,414,000,000	5,374,000,000	15,823,000,000
		3.3.2. Improve social housing	7,651,700,000	5,575,000,000	3,683,300,000	16,910,000,000
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups			5,214,572,000	6,223,622,000	5,019,022,000	16,457,216,000	7.2%
	4.1. Promote the socioeconomic integration of vulnerable groups		2,520,250,000	2,891,250,000	2,635,000,000	8,046,500,000	3.5%
		4.1.1. Improve the social protection of vulnerable groups	70,000,000	857,500,000	807,500,000	1,735,000,000
		4.1.2. Promote income-generating activities	2,450,250,000	2,033,750,000	1,827,500,000	6,311,500,000
	4.2. Develop specific programs to support vulnerable groups		2,694,322,000	3,332,372,000	2,384,022,000	8,410,716,000	3.7%
		4.2.1. Promote the creation of reception and monitoring centers and fight illiteracy in women	1,047,250,000	1,385,300,000	1,251,950,000	3,684,500,000
		4.2.2. Promote the practice of sports and renovate the poor areas (shantytowns)	1,647,072,000	1,947,072,000	1,132,072,000	4,726,216,000
		NPRSP TOTAL	67,555,199,714	89,044,709,344	70,621,060,760	227,220,969,818	100%
		NPRSP in USD	131,175,145	172,902,348	137,128,273	441,205,767

Pillars and themes	Years			Total	In %
	2006	2007	2008
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the administration and ensure macroeconomic stability	2,535,139,500	12,870,609,500	15,378,650,000	30,784,399,000	13.6%
II) Promote economic growth and job creation	31,345,229,929	43,272,110,295	30,015,095,147	104,632,435,371	46.1%
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures	28,460,258,285	26,678,367,549	20,208,293,613	75,346,919,447	33.1%
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups	5,214,572,000	6,223,622,000	5,019,022,000	16,457,216,000	7.2%
NPRSP Total	67,555,199,714	89,044,709,344	70,621,060,760	227,220,969,818	100%
NPRSP total in USD	131,175,145	172,902,348	137,128,273	441,205,767

View Table

Pillars and themes	Years			Total	In %
	2006	2007	2008
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the administration and ensure macroeconomic stability	2,535,139,500	12,870,609,500	15,378,650,000	30,784,399,000	13.6%
II) Promote economic growth and job creation	31,345,229,929	43,272,110,295	30,015,095,147	104,632,435,371	46.1%
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures	28,460,258,285	26,678,367,549	20,208,293,613	75,346,919,447	33.1%
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups	5,214,572,000	6,223,622,000	5,019,022,000	16,457,216,000	7.2%
NPRSP Total	67,555,199,714	89,044,709,344	70,621,060,760	227,220,969,818	100%
NPRSP total in USD	131,175,145	172,902,348	137,128,273	441,205,767

Pillar IV: Improving the living conditions of vulnerable groups

199. For this pillar, the planned interventions are more likely to rapidly improve thee living conditions of vulnerable groups because of well-targeted programs designed to protect and provide many types of support to these groups. The idea is primarily to contribute to improving their lifestyle and to supporting them in their income-generating activities. This pillar represents 7.2% of the entire NPRSP budget. The interventions under the socioeconomic integration programs for vulnerable groups will cost CFA 8.046 billion, or 3.5% of the NPRSP budget. The specific programs to support vulnerable groups will cost CFAF 8.410 billion or 3.7% of the total NPRSP budget. Investments amount to 48.9% of the amount planned for this pillar. It should be noted that programs to fight poverty are for the entire NPRSP, and the interventions planned for this pillar should not be considered the only ones that are meant to fight poverty. All the interventions under the NPRSP are either directly or directly aimed at fighting poverty.

200. The NPRSP monitoring and evaluation will require an amount of CFAF 250 million, or 485,437 dollars. This sum, which is available, is not incorporated into total NPRSP funding. It will contribute to training the staff involved in monitoring, data collection, performing impact studies, monitoring reports and information for the public and partners.

Table 9.

Financing by type of expense

(in FCFA)

Table 9.

Financing by type of expense

(in FCFA)

Pillars	Years			TOTAL	In %
	2006	2007	2008
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the administration and ensure macroeconomic stability	2,535,139,500	12,870,609,500	15,378,650,000	30,784,399,000
Build human capacities	423,155,000	305,800,000	155,800,000	884,755,000	2.9%
Structural reform	1,921,375,000	11,301,200,000	11,747,750,000	24,970,325,000	81.1%
Institutional support and current expenditures	80,100,000	140,100,000	110,100,000	330,300,000	1.1%
Investments	110,509,500	1,123,509,500	3 365,000,000	4,599,019,000	14.9%
II) Promote economic growth and job creation	31,345,229,929	43,272,110,295	30,015,095,147	104,632,435,371
Build human capacities	393,500,000	558,500,000	407,500,000	1,359,500,000	1.3%
Structural reform	472,300,000	-	-	472,300,000	0.5%
Institutional support and current expenditures	1,629,227,135	2,251,307,790	2,473,630,630	6,354,165,555	6.1%
Sector reform	3,411,988,000	5,542,684,000	4,718,408,000	13,673,080,000	13.1%
Investments	25,438,214,794	34,919,618,505	22,415,556,517	82,773,389,816	79.1%
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures	28,460,258,285	26,678,367,549	20,208,293,613	75,346,919,447
Build human capacities	663,449,785	753,799,785	881,599,785	2,298,849,355	3.1%
Institutional support and current expenditures	3,815,288,285	3,992,447,549	3,896,133,613	11,703,869,447	15.5%
Sector reform	3,359,500,000	3,230,800,000	1,750,800,000	8,341,100,000	11.1%
Investments	20,622,020,215	18,701,320,215	13,679,760,215	53,003,100,645	70.3%
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups	5,214,572,000	6,223,622,000	5,019,022,000	16,457,216,000
Build human capacities	298,500,000	316,550,000	276,950,000	892,000,000	5.4%
Institutional support and current expenditures	1,960,000,000	2,800,000,000	2,762,500,000	7,522,500,000	45.7%
Investments	2,956,072,000	3,107,072,000	1,979,572,000	8,042,716,000	48.9%

View Table

Table 9.

Financing by type of expense

(in FCFA)

Pillars	Years			TOTAL	In %
	2006	2007	2008
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the administration and ensure macroeconomic stability	2,535,139,500	12,870,609,500	15,378,650,000	30,784,399,000
Build human capacities	423,155,000	305,800,000	155,800,000	884,755,000	2.9%
Structural reform	1,921,375,000	11,301,200,000	11,747,750,000	24,970,325,000	81.1%
Institutional support and current expenditures	80,100,000	140,100,000	110,100,000	330,300,000	1.1%
Investments	110,509,500	1,123,509,500	3 365,000,000	4,599,019,000	14.9%
II) Promote economic growth and job creation	31,345,229,929	43,272,110,295	30,015,095,147	104,632,435,371
Build human capacities	393,500,000	558,500,000	407,500,000	1,359,500,000	1.3%
Structural reform	472,300,000	-	-	472,300,000	0.5%
Institutional support and current expenditures	1,629,227,135	2,251,307,790	2,473,630,630	6,354,165,555	6.1%
Sector reform	3,411,988,000	5,542,684,000	4,718,408,000	13,673,080,000	13.1%
Investments	25,438,214,794	34,919,618,505	22,415,556,517	82,773,389,816	79.1%
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures	28,460,258,285	26,678,367,549	20,208,293,613	75,346,919,447
Build human capacities	663,449,785	753,799,785	881,599,785	2,298,849,355	3.1%
Institutional support and current expenditures	3,815,288,285	3,992,447,549	3,896,133,613	11,703,869,447	15.5%
Sector reform	3,359,500,000	3,230,800,000	1,750,800,000	8,341,100,000	11.1%
Investments	20,622,020,215	18,701,320,215	13,679,760,215	53,003,100,645	70.3%
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups	5,214,572,000	6,223,622,000	5,019,022,000	16,457,216,000
Build human capacities	298,500,000	316,550,000	276,950,000	892,000,000	5.4%
Institutional support and current expenditures	1,960,000,000	2,800,000,000	2,762,500,000	7,522,500,000	45.7%
Investments	2,956,072,000	3,107,072,000	1,979,572,000	8,042,716,000	48.9%

For all NPRSP Pillars	YEARS			Total by category	In %
	2006	2007	2008
Build human capacities	1,778,604,785	1,934,649,785	1,721,849,785	5,435,104,355	2.4%
Structural and sector reform	9,165,163,000	20,074,684,000	18,216,958,000	47,456,805,000	20.9%
Institutional support and current expenditures	7,484,615,420	9,183,855,339	9,242,364,243	25,910,835,002	11.4%
Investments	49,126,816,509	57,851,520,220	41,439,888,732	148,418,225,461	65.3%
Total per year	67,555,199,714	89,044,709,344	70,621,060,760	227,220,969,818	100.0%

View Table

For all NPRSP Pillars	YEARS			Total by category	In %
	2006	2007	2008
Build human capacities	1,778,604,785	1,934,649,785	1,721,849,785	5,435,104,355	2.4%
Structural and sector reform	9,165,163,000	20,074,684,000	18,216,958,000	47,456,805,000	20.9%
Institutional support and current expenditures	7,484,615,420	9,183,855,339	9,242,364,243	25,910,835,002	11.4%
Investments	49,126,816,509	57,851,520,220	41,439,888,732	148,418,225,461	65.3%
Total per year	67,555,199,714	89,044,709,344	70,621,060,760	227,220,969,818	100.0%

Table 10.

NPRSP monitoring and evaluation

(in FCFA)

Table 10.

NPRSP monitoring and evaluation

(in FCFA)

Categories	Years			Total
	2006	2007	2008
Training	15,000,000	19,250,000	15,000,000	49,250,000
Data collection	25,000,000	27,500,000	25,000,000	77,500,000
Impact studies	20,000,000	33,250,000	20,000,000	73,250,000
Reports, dissemination/communication	15,000,000	20,000,000	15,000,000	50,000,000
Total	75,000,000	100,000,000	75,000,000	250,000,000

View Table

Table 10.

NPRSP monitoring and evaluation

(in FCFA)

Categories	Years			Total
	2006	2007	2008
Training	15,000,000	19,250,000	15,000,000	49,250,000
Data collection	25,000,000	27,500,000	25,000,000	77,500,000
Impact studies	20,000,000	33,250,000	20,000,000	73,250,000
Reports, dissemination/communication	15,000,000	20,000,000	15,000,000	50,000,000
Total	75,000,000	100,000,000	75,000,000	250,000,000

7.2 NPRSP financing strategy

200. Financing for the NPRSP is based on domestic contributions from the Government and the private sector, as well as on external assistance. Out of a total budget of CFAF 227.221 billion 80.3%, or CFAF 182.479 billion (USD 354.328 million) will depend on donor support. This shows how vital is the role of the development partners for the implementation for the NPRSP.

201. Raising domestic funding will not be neglected. By improving the management of public finances and the effectiveness of the tax authorities, the Government intends to significantly improve fiscal revenue, which is currently about 10% of GDP, whereas the WAEMU stability and growth pact recommends increasing it to 17%. The introduction of the value-added tax to replace the sales tax and the modernization of revenue collection departments should contribute to improving the government’s performances in terms of taxation. Along with this, the Government will implement appropriate reforms for using its natural resources, particularly fisheries, to obtain substantial revenues, while still paying attention to environmental conservation.

202. It is also expected that implementing the strategy will generate additional enterprises and hence additional revenue and income for all stakeholders, including the State. The implementation of the NPRSP should make it possible to quickly lower the budget deficit and to find additional funds for investment. It is not the Government’s intention to increase its foreign and domestic debt under the NPRSP. Most of all, the Government wants to reach a point where it eliminates its foreign debt under the HIPC Initiative as quickly as possible so that it is eligible for the MDRI approved by the IMF and World Bank in September 2005. It is important for the Government that the support from its partners not be a source of increasing its foreign debt. The Paris declaration of April 2005 makes it possible for Guinea-Bissau to expect untied aid from all of its partners and this aid will indeed meet its development priorities as expressed in the NPRSP.

Table 11.

Financing acquired and financing to be raised by Pillar

(in FCFA)

Table 11.

Financing acquired and financing to be raised by Pillar

(in FCFA)

Pillars	Total Pillars	Financing acquired		Financing to be raised
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the administration and ensure macroeconomic stability	30,784 399,000	2,123,000,000	6.9%	28,661,399,000	93.1%
II) Promote economic growth and job creation	104,632,435,371	15,278,262,705	14.6%	89,354,172,666	85.4%
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures	75,346,919,447	25,280,335,447	33.6%	50,066,584,000	66.4%
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups	16,457,216,000	2,060,216,000	12.5%	14,397,000,000	87.5%
TOTAL NPRSP	227,220,969,818	44,741,814,152	19.7%	182,479,155,666	80.3%
NPRSP in USD	441,205,767	86,877,309		354,328,458

View Table

Table 11.

Financing acquired and financing to be raised by Pillar

(in FCFA)

Pillars	Total Pillars	Financing acquired		Financing to be raised
I) Strengthen governance, modernize the administration and ensure macroeconomic stability	30,784 399,000	2,123,000,000	6.9%	28,661,399,000	93.1%
II) Promote economic growth and job creation	104,632,435,371	15,278,262,705	14.6%	89,354,172,666	85.4%
III) Increase access to basic social services and social infrastructures	75,346,919,447	25,280,335,447	33.6%	50,066,584,000	66.4%
IV) Improve the living conditions of vulnerable groups	16,457,216,000	2,060,216,000	12.5%	14,397,000,000	87.5%
TOTAL NPRSP	227,220,969,818	44,741,814,152	19.7%	182,479,155,666	80.3%
NPRSP in USD	441,205,767	86,877,309		354,328,458