Republic of Belarus: Staff Report for 2007 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
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This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Belarus’s centralized economy grew rapidly over the past few years, enhancing social development. The state redistributed large and growing terms-of-trade gains stemming from favorable Russian energy pricing across the economy, boosting domestic demand. A new energy agreement, however, has abruptly reversed terms-of-trade gains. Belarus now pays Russia twice as much for gas supplies as in 2006 and a fifth more as a share of world market prices for crude oil. This resulted in an estimated loss of 5½ percent of GDP in 2007.

Abstract

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Belarus’s centralized economy grew rapidly over the past few years, enhancing social development. The state redistributed large and growing terms-of-trade gains stemming from favorable Russian energy pricing across the economy, boosting domestic demand. A new energy agreement, however, has abruptly reversed terms-of-trade gains. Belarus now pays Russia twice as much for gas supplies as in 2006 and a fifth more as a share of world market prices for crude oil. This resulted in an estimated loss of 5½ percent of GDP in 2007.

Annex I. Belarus: Fund Relations

As of May 31, 2007

Fund Relations: Belarus has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2–4, and has no outstanding purchases (Appendix II). The authorities are not seeking a Fund program.

Exchange rate policy: The NBRB maintains a de facto peg to the U.S. dollar—the rubel exchange rate fluctuates within a band of ¼ percent around the pegged value. Section VIII describes the de jure arrangement.

Statistical database: Belarus’s statistical data are adequate for surveillance, albeit with some shortcomings (Appendix III). Belarus subscribed to the SDDS in December 2004.

Consultation cycle: 12 months.

I. Membership Status: Joined July 10, 1992; Article VIII

II. General Resources Account:

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III. SDR Department:

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IV. Outstanding Purchases and Loans: None

V. Financial Arrangements:

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VI. Projected Obligations to the Fund (SDR million; based on existing use of resources and present holdings of SDRs): None

VII. Safeguards Assessments:

As there is no arrangement in place, under the Fund’s safeguards assessments policy, the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) is not subject to a full safeguards assessment. However, as a potential borrower, the NBB requested a voluntary safeguards assessment, and an on-site assessment was conducted in December 2003. The assessment concluded that significant vulnerabilities existed in the safeguards framework, especially in the areas of the legal structure and independence, external and internal audit, and in financial reporting. The assessment made specific recommendations to correct the identified shortcomings. The authorities have begun to address some of these issues, and are considering appropriate measures to address the remaining concerns.

VIII. Exchange Arrangements:

As of August 20, 1994, the rubel (Br) became the unit of account replacing the Belarusian ruble, which was formally recognized as the sole legal tender only on May 18, 1994. The conversion took place at the rate of 10 Belarusian rubles = 1 rubel. The authorities decided to drop three zeroes from the rubel denomination as of January 1, 2000. The exchange rate for the U.S. dollar was Br 2,146 on August 10, 2007.

In mid-September 2000, the official exchange rate was unified with the market-determined rate resulting from daily auctions at the Belarus Currency and Stock Exchange. Since then, the official rate on any day is equal to the closing rate of the previous trading day. Since 2006, the exchange rate was set in the framework of horizontal corridors for the Russian ruble and the U.S. dollar around central parity. In 2007, the width of these corridors were ±4 percent vis-à-vis the Russian ruble, and ±2.5 percent vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. On November 5, 2001, Belarus accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4 of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement. During the same month, the NBB suspended all ad hoc exemptions from the 30 percent surrender requirement. Based on currently available information, Belarus does not maintain exchange restrictions or multiple currency practices.

IX. UFR/Article IV Consultation:

Belarus is on a 12-month consultation cycle. The 13th Article IV consultation was concluded on May 29, 2006. Subsequently, a staff visit occurred during February 7–14, 2007.

X. FSAP Participation, ROSCs, and OFC Assessments:

The fiscal ROSC was published on

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=17839.0 and the data ROSC on

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=18013.0. Two FSAP missions took place in 2004 and an FSSA report was published on

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=18367.0. The detailed FSAPs were disseminated in May 2006 for the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision on

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=19246.0, for the Transparency of Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision on

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=19248.0, and the Technical Note - Deposit Insurance on http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=19250.0.

XI. Technical Assistance, 2000–07

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Annex II. Belarus: Relations with the World Bank

Partnership in Belarus’ development strategy

1. According to the recent Country Assistance Strategy for Belarus the World Bank Group aims to advance cooperation in critical areas, help the country open up its economy and society, minimize social and environmental risks, and address global public good concerns.

IMF-World Bank collaboration in specific areas

2. The Bank and Fund teams work closely in Belarus and maintain an extremely good relationship. The IMF plays a key role at the macro level, while the World Bank focuses on the structural agenda, energy efficiency, social and environmental issues. The Bank and the Fund teams carry out joint activities on the key fiscal and structural issues. The joint work on the Public Expenditure Review (PER), Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and the Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) - are examples of excellent cooperation between the two institutions.

Areas in which the World Bank leads

3. Social sphere. The World Bank technical engagement with Belarus has generated a significant amount of analysis in areas of relevance to the assessment of poverty and living conditions in the country. In 2004 the Bank presented study “Poverty Assessment. Can Poverty Reduction and Access to Services Be Sustained?” offering a number of improvements to the methodology for measuring poverty and living conditions in Belarus and contributing an in-depth analysis of the multiple dimensions of poverty. Driven by demographic and socio-economic factors, Belarus faces a need for deep pension system reform. To analyze current situation and discuss possible reform options the World Bank team conducted a Pension Policy Dialogue with the Government during FY 2004.

4. Energy sector. The Social Infrastructure Retrofitting Project (US$22.6 million) aims to assist in the rehabilitation of the heating system, thermal insulation, and lighting in over 450 public buildings across the country. The project targets schools, hospitals, orphanages and community homes for the elderly and the disabled. It also includes measures to increase energy efficiency. In September 2006 the Bank issued a report Belarus: Addressing Challenges Facing the Energy Sector which reviewed current standings of the electricity and gas sectors and proposed policy recommendations to mitigate the impact of gas price increases on the energy sector.

5. Energy Sector Management Assistance Program grant (US$50.0 thousand, completed in 2005). The project helped the Committee on Energy Efficiency explore market mechanisms to improve energy efficiency through operation of Energy Servicing Companies (ESCOs) and options of strengthening the energy efficiency program by learning experience of neighboring countries that have managed to weather the impact of multi-fold energy prices increases.

6. Private-Public Infrastructure Advisory Facility project (US$350.0 thousand) was approved in 2005. The project will help to advance the transition to market principles and encourage private sector involvement in the Belarus energy sector by providing regulatory, institutional and other support to create an environment that is conducive to private investment. While recognizing that the environment for private investments is not conducive in Belarus, the government has considered some reform scenarios that draw on experience gained by neighboring countries, and is seeking technical assistance in the evaluation and implementation of such scenarios.

7. Environment. Belarus has made good progress in the protection of environment. However, the country is still facing many environmental problems, including coping with the legacy of the Chernobyl accident. The Post-Chernobyl Recovery Project (approved on April 18, 2006) is designed to revitalize selected regions of the country, affected by the Chernobyl accident, by improving local people’s living conditions, reinforcing the energy efficiency and environmental safeguards. The project is based on the recommendations of the Chernobyl Review (2002) and also intended to spearhead greater support of the international community to the affected regions of the country.

8. The government welcomes the Bank’s continued support on the implementation of the Kyoto protocol which was ratified in November 2005. Pending the effectiveness of amendment to Annex B of the protocol, the country could be eligible to engage in joint initiatives program or carbon emission trading under the Kyoto Protocol. In the meantime, the Bank would assist the country in preparing for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.

Areas of shared responsibility

9. Economic development. The Bank team cooperated closely with the IMF on the issues related to the preparation of the Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), with one chapter - “Macroeconomic policies and risks,” prepared jointly. This chapter reviews the country’s macroeconomic developments since 1996, the sources and structure of growth, and analyzes the role of macroeconomic policies in Belarus’s growth performance. Special attention was paid to the risks associated with Belarus’s current macroeconomic position, and how these risks might be addressed effectively through adjustments in monetary policy, fiscal policy, and debt management.

10. Private sector development. The most challenging reform agenda for Belarus is in the area of structural reforms and private business development. The Bank Group seeks to improve the general environment for the creation and operation of private business in Belarus through technical assistance, policy dialogue and analytical work. The Bank and the IFC conducted a number of studies including Improving the Business Environment and Costs of Doing Business Surveys to track the developments in this area, define impediments to private business expansion and provide policy recommendations. The Fund focuses on macroeconomic policies aimed at sustainable growth and encouraging private sector development. The Fund also provides technical assistance to improve taxation, banking regulations and supervision of financial institutions.

11. Public expenditure management. The IMF and the Bank provide continuous technical assistance to Belarus in the area of public expenditure management. In FY 2006 the assistance has been provided for preparation of budget programs’ description and other basic documents required for the introduction of performance-based budgeting (PBB).

12. The Bank is currently preparing a Public Expenditures Review (FY07) in the form of short policy notes, focused on two areas: (i) increasing efficiency in public capital expenditures; and (ii) reforming intergovernmental fiscal relations. Upon completion of the notes and in consultation with government, the Bank will determine specific areas that need further attention to produce just-in-time advisory notes.

14. Financial sector. The FSAP for Belarus (2005) has been centered on assessments of the banking system, including deposit insurance, securities markets, insurance industry, payment system and transparency in conducting monetary policy. Regulations, oversight and governance arrangements has been reviewed also. The Bank and the IMF also carry out joint responsibility for providing assistance to Belarus in the prevention of money laundering and combating financing of terrorism.

15. In the context of the CIS Payments and Securities Settlement Initiative (CISPI), the World Bank-lead mission visited Minsk in spring 2006 to review the payment and securities settlement systems of the Republic of Belarus. The CISPI is a cooperative effort lead by the World Bank. Its objective is to describe and assess the payments systems of the countries of the CIS with a view to identifying possible improvement measures in their safety, efficiency and integrity.

16. Statistical capacity-building. The IMF and the World Bank provide technical assistance in the area of statistics to the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis, National Bank and the Ministry of Finance. Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building grant (US$108.0 thousand, 2005) was designed to assist the government in the design of the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics.

Areas in which the IMF leads

17. The IMF is actively engaged with the Authorities in discussing the macroeconomic program providing them with technical assistance and related support, including on economic and financial statistics, tax policy, monetary operations and fiscal transparency. The IMF is leading the dialogue on setting the objectives for monetary and exchange rate policies, public debt management, overall budget envelope and tax policy.

18. The IMF analysis in these areas serves as an input to the Bank policy advice. The Bank and the IMF teams have regular consultations and the Bank staff takes part in the IMF Article IV Consultation missions. This helps to ensure consistency of the policy recommendations by the two institutions.

The World Bank Group Strategy

18. The last strategy program covered the period of 2002-2004. The Country Assistance Review (2004) recommended completing the key elements of latest CAS before initiation of the new strategy of engagement. This included: completion of ongoing ESW, particularly the CEM and the FSAP; continuation of the environment initiatives, and finalization of the Chernobyl Project. The new CAS for Belarus is currently under preparation.

19. To date, the Bank lending commitments in Belarus total US$243 million, with US$17.5 million provided as grants. The active portfolio includes two ongoing operations—the Social Infrastructure Retrofitting Project (US$22.6 million.) and the Post Chernobyl Recovery Project (US$50 million).

20. The International Finance Corporation has been actively involved in advisory work in Belarus since 1993. The work began with the advisory services on privatization of small businesses. Currently IFC focuses its efforts on small and medium enterprise development and improvement of the business environment.

21. IFC has invested a total of US$107 million in six projects, mostly over the course of the past five years, in the financial, agribusiness and retail sectors. In the financial sector, IFC has provided long-term funding to Priorbank and Belgazprombank to support their expansion and SME lending operations. By focusing on SME lending, financial sector investments have allowed IFC to reach a large number of private companies while strengthening the country’s financial system.

Questions may be referred to Sergiy Kulyk, Country Program Coordinator, ECA Region, World Bank (202) 458-4068

Annex III. Belarus: Statistical Issues

1. The quality and timeliness of statistical data are broadly adequate for surveillance, although macroeconomic analysis is encumbered in some areas. The authorities have made significant efforts and improvements over the past years in a number of key areas, with the support of technical assistance from the Fund. As a subscriber to the SDDS since December 2004, Belarus disseminates regularly prescribed series, an advance release calendar and maintains a National Statistics Data Page (http://www.belstat.gov.by/homep/en/specst/np.htm). The provision of data over the last year has generally been adequate for the analysis of economic developments on a regular basis.

2. The data ROSC mission that visited Minsk in early 2004 found that all statistical agencies face the challenge of increasing users’ confidence in the accuracy and reliability of official statistics.

National Accounts

3. National accounts are compiled in accordance with the System of National Accounts of 1993 (SNA 1993). GDP is compiled by the production, the expenditure and the income approaches, and covers the entire economic territory of the Republic of Belarus. Data on GDP are disseminated on a quarterly basis (in national currency) in current and constant market prices (2000=100) expressed as absolute values.

4. In early 2006, the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis (Minstat) introduced a new methodology early 2006 for measuring industrial production in constant prices (on the basis of prices of the previous year). In October 2006, a national account mission reviewed the methodology. It found that it is remains essentially based on quantity measures and noted the limitations of such measures for dealing with issues such as the introduction of new products and improvements in quality. Besides, the methodology relies on a limited number of deflators to derive intermediate consumption in constant prices, that hamper a proper capture of volume and price breakdown and may introduce a systematic bias in measuring industrial output.

5. In addition, GDP figures are likely to be distorted by the underreporting of newly emerging sectors—in particular services—and an active informal sector. In addition, problems remain in calculating holding gains from inventories, and in measuring the capital stock and consumption of fixed capital. Estimates of GDP by expenditure categories are still uncertain as the statistical discrepancy has been soaring.

Prices

6. Data on Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) are being reported to the Fund monthly on a timely basis. Both indices were developed with substantial technical assistance from the Fund. As regards the PPI, in January 1995 a Laspeyres formula recommended by the Fund was adopted. Other recommendations, such as inclusion of exports, adequate specification of items, and better selection of representative products and prices, have either been adopted or are in the process of being adopted. Since January 2001, the PPI has been compiled using the 1999 weights; and beginning with 2003 data, with 2001 production weights.

Government Finance Statistics

7. Since the 2004 data ROSC mission, the MOF has made progress in different areas of collection, compilation, and dissemination of fiscal data. The authorities have extended the coverage of the general government (republican and local government) operations by including data for innovation funds, included the Social Protection Fund’s operations in the consolidated budget, increased the number of officials involved in the GFS compilation work, established a close coordination with the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) for the reconciliation of fiscal and monetary datasets, and increased provision of detailed budgetary metadata and methodological descriptions on the MOF’s website. In addition to these improvements, the MOF has prepared new budgetary classifications codes for revenue, expenditure, and financing data that will align them to the GFSM 2001 analytical framework.

8. At the end of April 2005, a GFS technical assistance (TA) mission visited Minsk. This mission found that the existing fiscal, accounting, and statistical systems have a sound basis for migrating to the GSFM 2001. Nonetheless, several areas were identified that will need further work before satisfactory implementation of the GFSM2001. In order to provide assistance in this area, the GFS TA mission collaborated with the authorities on the preparation of a migration plan for a gradual implementation of this analytical framework.

9. The authorities have reported GFS for 2003 and 2004 under the GFSM 2001 analytical framework for publication in the GFS Yearbook and started disseminating, through the MOF’s website, fiscal data according to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard.

Monetary Statistics

10. The balance sheet of the NBRB and the monetary survey are usually provided with a lag of no more than two weeks; the bank monthly balance sheet is available on or about the fifth of the month following the reference period, while monetary data for publication in IFS are reported with a lag of about four weeks.

11. Interest rate data on bank deposits and credits, as well as data on NBRB credit auctions and the placement of NBRB and government securities, are provided with a one-month lag. Exchange rate data are readily available on the NBRB’s web site, and periodically reported to the Fund in electronic file.

12. Following STA technical assistance mission in October 2005, the NBRB compiles monetary statistics according to the methodology of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual. The NBRB reports monetary data to STA using the Standardized Report Forms (SRFs) framework. Monetary and financial data for Belarus in the SRF framework are available from December 2001 and have been published in the December 2006 issue of the IFS Supplement.

Balance of Payments Statistics

13. The overall quality and timeliness of external sector data is satisfactory. The International Transactions Reporting System employed by the NBRB has been broadened to permit a more accurate classification of external transactions, while coverage and reporting forms for enterprise surveys were also improved. The NBRB publishes quarterly balance of payments and international investment position statements in the BPM5 format on a timely basis. Scheduled interest and amortization payments on public sector debt are tracked by the MoF and reported to the Fund, and timely information is available on arrears on government and government-guaranteed debt.

14. Belarus has started to disseminate historical data on the reserves template on the IMF’s website: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/colist.htm. Monthly time series start with November 2004 data.

Belarus: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance

(As of July 27, 2007)

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Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.

Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.

The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.

Including currency and maturity composition.

Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A), Irregular (I); Not Available (NA).

These columns should only be included for countries for which a Data ROSC (or a Substantive Update) has been prepared.

Reflects the assessment provided in the data ROSC (published on February 1, 2005, and based on the findings of the mission that took place during March 23–April 7, 2004) for the dataset corresponding to the variable in each row. The assessment indicates whether international standards concerning concepts and definitions, scope, classification/sectorization, and basis for recording are fully observed (O), largely observed (LO), largely not observed (LNO), or not observed (NO).

Same as footnote 8, except referring to international standards concerning source data, assessment of source data, statistical techniques, assessment and validation of intermediate data and statistical outputs, and revision studies.

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