This DSA has been prepared jointly by the IMF and the World Bank staffs based on the framework considered by the Boards of the Fund and the Bank in April 2005 and revised in December 2006. The analysis has benefited from inputs provided by the Asian Development Bank and was discussed with the Cambodian authorities during the 2007 Article IV Consultation.
Cambodia received debt relief from the Fund under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) of SDR57 million (US$82 million) in early 2006, as outlined in Press Release No. 05/291 (12/23/2005).
An FDI-financed, offshore operation without large domestic investments in shipping facilities or refineries. Production would begin in 2011. Fiscal revenues from oil would reach around US$1.5 billion or around 5 percent of GDP in 2017.
The previous DSA (in Country Report No. 06/264) incorporated in its analysis the exchange rate to convert USSR Gosbank Ruble debt to U.S. Dollars, but the discount was applied only after the agreement to rescheduling the future path of the debt. The current DSA applies the 70 percent discount for both the past and the future path of the debt, consistent with the 1997 MoU between Russia and the Paris Club and with agreements reached in the context of bilateral negotiations between Cambodia and the Russian Federation.
Contrary to the DSA, which assumes that nominal GDP in US$ would fall by almost as much as the depreciation, a depreciation in the case of Cambodia would affect nominal GDP in US$ only marginally.
For the U.S. debt, the payment schedule based on the latest bilateral agreement sent by the United States (48 consecutive semi-annual back-loaded installments commencing in 2012 and an interest rate of 3 percent) is assumed. For the Russian debt, the disputed US$40 million loans are classified as post-cut-off-date debt, and the interest rates on the post-cut-off-date debt is assumed to rise gradually from 2.5 to 5.75 percent throughout payment period.
This assumes that Cambodia issues a sovereign US$ bond with a face value of 10 percent of GDP in 2008, at 9 percent interest rate and 15-year maturity.