Bolivia
Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Module, Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessment Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

The Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module provides an assessment of Bolivia’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). The report reveals that the quality of Bolivia’s macroeconomic statistics has improved over recent years. The statistics have been broadly adequate for macroeconomic analysis and policy design and monitoring. The authorities have demonstrated a commitment to pursue plans and programs to further improve their statistics.

Abstract

The Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module provides an assessment of Bolivia’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). The report reveals that the quality of Bolivia’s macroeconomic statistics has improved over recent years. The statistics have been broadly adequate for macroeconomic analysis and policy design and monitoring. The authorities have demonstrated a commitment to pursue plans and programs to further improve their statistics.

I. Overall Assessment

1. The quality of Bolivia’s macroeconomic statistics has improved over recent years and the statistics have been broadly adequate for macroeconomic analysis and policy design and monitoring. Nevertheless, the ROSC mission identified shortcomings in some statistical practices that have the potential for detracting from the accurate and timely analysis of economic and financial developments and the formulation of appropriate policies. The authorities have established a good track record of implementing recommendations of technical assistance missions and have demonstrated a commitment to pursue plans and programs to further improve their statistics. The authorities are strongly committed to adhering to internationally accepted standards and good practices, as demonstrated by their participation in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) and their forthcoming subscription to the more demanding Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

2. Bolivia has an effective legal and institutional framework that supports statistical quality. The resources are generally commensurate with the current volume of statistical services, but insufficient to advance the implementation of needed improvements in most datasets. The work of all statistical agencies is based on professionalism, transparency, and adherence to ethical standards. The methodologies for the consumer price index (CPI), monetary, and balance of payments (BOP) statistics are basically sound, but there is room for improving the conceptual framework, scope, classification, and basis for recording in all other datasets. Adequate source data are generally available, except for national accounts and the producer price index (PPI). The reference year for national accounts (1990) has become obsolete and there is excessive use of fixed intermediate consumption/output coefficients. Indirect estimates of illegal production linked to the transformation of the coca leaf, some informal industrial and domestic trade activities, and shuttle trade are made, but related exports are excluded from BOP statistics. Furthermore, the CPI and PPI weights have not been updated during the past 16 years. Most of the official statistics are consistent within each dataset and over a reasonable period of time, but consistency with other datasets needs to be improved for the national accounts. Most datasets meet the periodicity and timeliness recommended by the GDDS, with the GFS, GDP, monetary, and BOP also meeting SDDS requirements.

3. Bolivia participates in the GDDS since November 2000 and meets the recommendations for the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of most required data categories. However, there are some exceptions, including (a) the periodicity and timeliness of the manufacturing and producer price indexes; (b) the coverage of the consolidated central government operations; and (c) dissemination of data on public and publicly guaranteed debt service schedule. Bolivia compiles and disseminates most encouraged data categories. Exceptions are the debt service schedule of private external debt not publicly guaranteed and the timeliness of data on gross national income, capital formation, and savings. A share price index is not compiled because the volume of transactions in shares in the stock exchange is very small. Appendix I provides an overview of Bolivia’s dissemination practices compared to the GDDS.

4. In applying the current version of the IMF’s DQAF (July 2003), the remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions. The presentation is done at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions and across datasets for the remaining four.

5. Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity:

  • The National Statistical Institute (NSI) has a legal and institutional environment that supports the production and dissemination of national accounts and price statistics. The laws establish mandatory data reporting by public and private entities to the NSI and the confidential nature of individual information, but no sanctions or fines are specified for noncompliance. Resources should be strengthened to establish a regular program of economic surveys for national accounts and to improve the quality of the PPI. Formal mechanisms to consult data users need to be strengthened. The NSI applies strict technical principles and professional ethics in the compilation and dissemination of statistics, and promotes a culture of professionalism. The terms and conditions under which statistics are produced are not available on the NSI website, but various publications reproduce the relevant legal precepts. Information on internal government access to data before their release to the public is only disseminated on the IMF’s DSBB. The legal framework establishes sanctions for improper behavior of public servants in the performance of their functions, and these regulations are made known to the staff.

  • The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has a legal and institutional environment that supports the compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS). Data sharing and coordination among and within institutions are broadly adequate, but there is some room for improvement (e.g., by centralizing the compilation and dissemination of GFS). Although resources are commensurate with the current needs of statistical programs, additional personnel and financing resources will be required for developmental work, including the adoption of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001. Regular procedures to consult with data users and to monitor the quality of the statistics need to be established. Data are collected, compiled and disseminated on an impartial basis. The MOF promotes a culture of professionalism and is authorized to respond to misinterpretation/misuse of fiscal data. The terms and conditions under which the MOF collects, compiles, and disseminates GFS are specified in relevant laws, which are available to the public. The legislation provides guidelines on staff behavior and administrative procedures, which are well known by the staff.

  • The compilation of statistics by the Central Bank of Bolivia (CBB) is based on a legal framework that supports mandatory data reporting and the confidentiality of the reported data. Inter-agency coordination is effective, but there is room for improving the data sharing arrangements with the NSI for the provision of timely survey data for the BOP. Human resources dedicated to the compilation of monetary and BOP statistics are adequate, but insufficient for conducting surveys needed for the BOP. The CBB maintains some informal contacts with data users, but there are no formal mechanisms to monitor the relevance of the statistics or to identify emerging data requirements. The statistics are compiled and disseminated following strict technical criteria and within a culture of professionalism. The terms and conditions under which statistics are compiled and disseminated are available to the public. Information on internal government access to data before their release to the public is disseminated on the CBB website and the IMF’s DSBB. The CBB’s Code of Conduct establishes ethical principles for CBB staff, including integrity, professional independence, and confidentiality. Staff of the CBB must sign at the start of each year a confidentiality agreement concerning the activities and operations of the reporting institutions.

  • The Superintendency of Banks and Financial Entities (SBFE) has the legal authority to collect data from all financial intermediaries under its supervision and the laws include penalties in cases of delays or inaccurate reporting. While the SBFE’s main function is to collect data for supervisory purposes, it has always demonstrated willingness to meet the CBB’s emerging data needs. Technical criteria alone are applied in the selection of data collection methods and processes and activities in the workplace promote a culture of professionalism. The terms and conditions for collecting data for supervisory purposes are specified in the relevant laws, which are available to the public. The SBFE’s Ethics Code contains rules on staff conduct, which are known by all staff.

6. The methodologies for the CPI, as well as monetary and BOP statistics broadly follow international standards. However, there are important shortcomings in the methodological soundness of the national accounts, PPI, and GFS, where progress towards adopting the latest statistical manuals has been slower. In general, there is room for improving the scope of all datasets. For example, important economic activities are missing in the PPI, including agriculture, mining, energy, water, gas, and services. For national accounts, the institutional sector accounts are compiled only up to the capital account and the nonprofit institutions serving households sector (NPISH) is not investigated. Indirect estimates of illegal production linked to the transformation of the coca leaf, some informal industrial and domestic trade activities, and shuttle trade are made. The GFS exclude data from some decentralized agencies and local governments and the consolidated central government data are not compiled, even though information is available. Monetary aggregates exclude data for Investment Funds Management Societies, which issue liabilities that should be included in broad money. The BOP excludes unrecorded trade and some other transactions with nonresidents. There is room to improve classification and sectorization systems for all datasets, in particular for GFS, where there are significant departures from best practices, e.g., in the classification of royalties, commissions, tax returns, social assistance benefits, and lending minus repayments. The basis for recording national accounts, prices, and monetary statistics follow international best practices. Recording of transactions for the BOP and GFS could be improved, for example, by fully adopting accrual accounting.

7. While ample source data sustain a high level of accuracy and reliability in the monetary statistics, there is significant room for improvement in all other datasets, especially for national accounts and the PPI. Source data are very good for monetary statistics, are reasonably available for the CPI, but are insufficiently developed for the national accounts, the PPI, GFS, and BOP statistics. Despite recent improvements in the data sources for national accounts, such as the conduct of a household survey, important weaknesses remain. For example, a comprehensive business directory does not exist, the compilation of the annual manufacturing, foreign direct investment, and tourism surveys were suspended, and economic censuses are not conducted on a regular basis. With respect to the PPI, the basket is not fully representative of current national output. There is some overlapping of responsibilities in the collection of source data for GFS, and the coverage of certain services and financial transactions in the BOP needs to be expanded. Assessment and validation of source data for GFS, monetary, and BOP statistics are sound, but need to be strengthened for national accounts and price indices. Statistical techniques need to be improved for most datasets. For example, the reference year for national accounts (1990) has become obsolete and there is excessive use of fixed intermediate consumption/output coefficients; CPI and PPI weights have not been updated during the past 16 years and new products are not introduced in the CPI. The procedures for validating intermediate and final data are sound. For the most part, revision studies and analysis are conducted and used to inform the statistical processes. However, only the analyses of revisions to monetary statistics are documented on a systematic basis.

8. Serviceability of the macroeconomic statistics is broadly satisfactory, as confirmed by the results of a user survey conducted in the context of this assessment. With the exception of the PPI and the public and publicly guaranteed debt service schedule, data in all assessed areas are compiled and disseminated with the periodicity and timeliness recommended by the GDDS. Furthermore, all data categories in the GFS, monetary, and BOP datasets, meet the periodicity and timeliness required by the more demanding SDDS. Macroeconomic statistics are broadly consistent within the dataset and can be reconciled over a reasonable period of time. While publicly available information permits the reconciliation of GFS, monetary, and BOP statistics, there is room to improve the consistency of national accounts with other datasets. The statistical agencies have well established revision policies and practices for most datasets, and preliminary and revised data are identified in the publications. However, neither the revision cycle nor the analyses of revisions are publicized.

9. There are opportunities to improve the accessibility of official statistics, for example, by disseminating the advance release calendars on the websites of all statistical agencies and improving access to data via the Internet. Currently, the advance release calendar for all the assessed datasets is disseminated on the CBB website. A government policy advisory committee is provided with data that may or may not be disseminated to the public. However, this practice does not affect the pre-scheduled release. Detailed metadata are posted on the websites of the statistical agencies and in the publications, with the exception of metadata for GFS, which are only available on the IMF’s DSBB. All data-producing agencies provide effective assistance to users.

10. At the request of the authorities, current data dissemination practices were also reviewed against the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). 1 The following points about the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness prescriptions of the data dimension highlight some significant issues to be addressed prior to subscription to the SDDS:

  • In the real sector,

    • i. Data on employment, unemployment, and wages/salaries need to be compiled on a quarterly basis and disseminated within three months after the end of the reference period. While data for public sector employment and wages/salaries meet the SDDS standard, data for the private sector are only compiled every six months and disseminated with a four-month lag. Data on unemployment are only compiled on an annual basis and disseminated with a four-month lag; and

    • ii. The PPI needs to be compiled on a monthly basis and disseminated within a month of the end of the reference period. Currently, the PPI is compiled on a quarterly basis and disseminated with a ten-week lag.

  • In the fiscal sector, the consolidated operations of the central government (budgetary, extrabudgetary, and social security operations) are not compiled, even though the data for the component subsectors are available. Data on the consolidated operations of the general government and the nonfinancial public sector are compiled and disseminated.

  • All data categories in the financial and external sectors meet the SDDS prescriptions on coverage, periodicity, and timeliness.

11. Advanced release calendars for all data categories are disseminated at: http://www.bcb.gov.bo/sitio/estadisticast.php?n2=5&n3=9&n4. Appendix III in the accompanying document presents a more detailed description of current practices regarding coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of data compared to the SDDS.

12. Bolivia should be able to meet the remaining requirements for SDDS subscription in the very short term, particularly because the country is entitled to take two flexibility options. This means that for any two prescribed data categories listed above (employment, unemployment, wages/salaries, and the producer price index), periodicity and/or timeliness may be less than prescribed. 2

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

13. Assessment of the quality of six macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, consumer price index, producer price index, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics—were conducted using the July 2003 vintage of the DQAF. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements and using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ad. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3af.

Table 1.

Bolivia: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results

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Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies.Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities' ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.
Table 2a.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—National Statistical Institute

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Table 2b.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Central Bank of Bolivia

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Table 2d.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Superintendency of Banks and Financial Entities

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Table 3a.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Consumer Price Index

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Table 3c.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Consumer Price Index

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Table 3d.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3e.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3f.

Bolivia: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

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14. In order to complement the Fund’s assessment of the quality of official statistics, the mission conducted an informal survey of key users of macroeconomic statistics. Questionnaires were sent to a broad range of users who were asked to evaluate key aspects of data quality. Surveys were sent to 329 targeted users, with 85 of them submitting responses, including the main users of official statistics.

15. On a five point scale (1 = poor and 5 = excellent), the average rating for the overall quality of official statistics for all sectors was 3.5. A majority of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the methodological soundness of the data and believed that Bolivia’s statistics were comparable to the statistics disseminated by neighboring countries. Respondents also indicated that they were satisfied with the level of coverage and detail as well as the periodicity. However, respondents expressed general dissatisfaction with the accessibility to metadata and timeliness, particularly of national accounts.

16. Several respondents suggested that the level of detail of economic statistics be expanded by disseminating, for example, GDP by region. In addition, users expressed interest in a producer price index, increased periodicity of labor statistics, and forward looking indicators of economic activity. A more detailed analysis of the Users' Survey and the tabulated results are included in Appendix IV of the accompanying document Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF).

III. Staff’s Recommendations

Based on the review of Bolivia’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users, the mission presents a set of recommendations. They are designed to further increase adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and would enhance the analytical usefulness of Bolivia’s statistics. The recommendations are subdivided into “High priority” and “Other key recommendations.” While all the high priority actions listed below should be treated as such, the cross-cutting recommendations need to be addressed with the greatest priority. More detailed technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume for each dataset.

Cross-cutting Recommendations

High Priority

  • Improve coordination among and within public institutions to facilitate information sharing and to avoid potential duplication in data collection and dissemination, as well as to improve intersectoral consistency.

  • Ensure that agencies and units compiling macroeconomic statistics have adequate resources to undertake needed developmental work.

  • Disseminate macroeconomics statistics simultaneously to all users, publicizing any prior access granted to selected users.

  • Promote the adoption of the new Statistics Law and a National Statistical Plan.

  • Strengthen data sources across all datasets, including surveys and censuses.

Other key recommendations

  • Establish regular mechanisms to monitor the relevance of the statistics and to identify emerging data needs.

  • Provide advance notice of changes in methodology, source data, and statistical techniques and disseminate advance release calendars, revision policies, and revision studies.

National Accounts

High Priority

  • Formulate a comprehensive data collection program of economic censuses and surveys to support the compilation of the national accounts.

  • Improve timeliness of national accounts to meet SDDS requirements.

  • Give high priority to the ongoing project to update the national accounts’ reference year and implement the 1993 SNA, and bring forward the targeted completion date.

  • Improve the quality of the Volume and Producer Price Indices for manufacturing activities and improve the coverage and quality of volume measures for construction, commerce, and service activities.

  • Assess the feasibility of using the households survey, and other sources, where available, to estimate the participation of the informal sector in GDP, and changes in employment and income generation.

Other key recommendations

  • Apply COFOG to the classification of government consumption expenditures.

  • Assess feasibility of compiling directly the changes in inventories for important products.

Consumer Price Index

High Priority

  • Update the CPI basket on the basis of results from the 2003/2004 HBS and the CPI Manual 2004.

Other key recommendations

  • Improve treatment of seasonal products, missing items, quality changes, and introduction of new products.

  • Calculate retroactive index series using chain linking between old a new series.

Producer Price Index

High Priority

  • Adopt the 1993 SNA concepts and definitions, including new weights, changes in inventories, own-account production for final use, and the coverage of economic activities.

  • Improve treatment of seasonal products, missing items, quality changes, and introduction of new products.

  • Improve periodicity and timeliness to meet GDDS recommendations.

Other key recommendations

  • Change the base year of the PPI, updating its weights by using output by industry and including all goods producing activities.

  • Asses PPI data source and calculate the variance or sampling errors to guide the new PPI sample design.

  • Calculate retroactive index series using chain linking, between old a new series.

Government Finance Statistics

High priority

  • Ensure reporting of detailed data on the operations of all general government institutional units to the MOF.

  • Compile and disseminate GFS for operations of the consolidated central government (including budgetary, extrabudgetary, and social security subsectors) and general government (including consolidated central government and regional and local government subsectors) following international best practices.

  • Centralize the compilation of GFS to ensure intra-agency coordination, timely dissemination, and avoid overlapping responsibilities.

  • Integrate and standardize data sources for improving consistency of the GFS and for reducing the collection and compilation burden.

Other key recommendations

  • Adopt a migration plan to the GFSM 2001.

  • Improve presentation of GFS in hard copy and electronic publications.

Monetary Statistics

High Priority

  • Expand the ODC survey with the inclusion of the accounts of the SAFIs.

  • Reclassify accounts of SAFIs from OFCs to ODCs and separate the accounts of the private nonfinancial resident sector into accounts of “other nonfinancial corporations” (private enterprises) and “other resident sectors” (households and NPISHs).

Other key recommendations

  • In collaboration with the SBFE, monitor that in the “sectoral accounts,” ODCs are properly classifying accounts of nonresidents.

  • Compile a monthly OFC survey, with data from insurance corporations, pension funds, NAFIBO, and FONDESIF.

  • Facilitate staff access to Internet and telecommunications.

Balance of Payments Statistics

High Priority

  • In consultation with the NSI, develop a methodology to include unrecorded trade and its counterpart transactions in the BOP.

  • Provide additional staff resources to the BPD to undertake additional tasks associated with the recent introduction of the CBB’s Foreign Private Capital (FPC) survey.

  • Initiate in 2007 quarterly FPC surveys, identifying improvements in design, data validation, and sample techniques, based on the results of the 2006 FPC survey.

  • Continue efforts to improve data collection and estimation techniques for workers’ remittances and other transfers, and certain services and financial transactions.

Other Key Recommendations

  • Resume in 2007 the semiannual travel survey, jointly conducted by NSI and CBB.

  • Apply the accrual principle for recording interest on public sector external debt.

  • Review external debt relief data recording to ensure that treatment is consistent with BPM5, including the recording of debt forgiveness in the capital account.

  • Compile and disseminate data on the external debt-service payment schedule (for total and public sector external debt), in line with the External Debt Guide.

Appendix I. Bolivia: Practices Compared to the GDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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D = Daily; W = Week(ly); WD = Working days; M = Month(ly); Q = Quarter(ly); A = Annually; NLT = No later than; (…) = not applicableItalics indicate encouraged categories.

Indexes for construction, telecommunications, electricity, transportation, hydrocarbons, and mining.

While the index is compiled on a quarterly basis, it is only disseminated annually in the NSI’s Statistical Yearbook.

3 Dissemination as part of a high-frequency (e.g. monthly) publication.

Data are compiled but not disseminated.

1

A detailed description of the SDDS can be found on the IMF’s Data Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) on the Internet at http://www.dsbb.imf.org. A summary is presented in Appendix II of the Detailed Assessment document.

2

For a detailed description of the flexibility options see the Guide to the Data Dissemination Standards, 1996 (56–59).