Chad
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: 2005 Annual Implementation Progress Report
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publication Date:
08 Aug 2007
eISBN:
9781451836479
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; civil society; primary sector; public expenditure; private sector; economic development; international community; production system; government reform; labor market; cash flow
Download PDF (2 MB)

This paper discusses key findings of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS) Monitoring and Implementation Report 2005 for Chad. The strategy is based on the attainment of five core objectives: good governance, robust and sustained growth, the development of human capital, improved living conditions for the most vulnerable segments of the population, and environmental protection. This report aims to provide a more comprehensive account of the measures taken and results achieved since the beginning of NPRS implementation.

Abstract

This paper discusses key findings of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS) Monitoring and Implementation Report 2005 for Chad. The strategy is based on the attainment of five core objectives: good governance, robust and sustained growth, the development of human capital, improved living conditions for the most vulnerable segments of the population, and environmental protection. This report aims to provide a more comprehensive account of the measures taken and results achieved since the beginning of NPRS implementation.

I. A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW OF POVERTY REDUCTION

1.1 Justification for an Integrated Approach to Poverty Reduction

The core objective of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy is to cut the poverty indicators by half between now and 2015. In light of Chad’s current socioeconomic situation, attaining this goal requires consistent and coordinated action in most sectors of the national economy and in the country’s institutional life. Sustainable growth is an essential condition for social progress and poverty reduction; it assumes the development of a diversified economy that is less vulnerable to the internal and external shocks that have long plagued Chad. In addition, growth can be made sustainable only by fulfilling two conditions: first, it must go hand-in-hand with environmental protection, and second, its overall focus must be accepted by the general population. The participatory consultations that preceded the formulation of the NPRS showed that the population’s priorities were the security of people and property, good governance, and broad-based support for grassroots initiatives.

Reducing poverty is a multifaceted and complex endeavor that comprises actions ranging from establishing democracy and consolidating social peace to decentralizing power and involving civil society: in short, poverty reduction is about striking a new balance between representative democracy and the direct participation of the population in managing the issues that affect them.

More concretely, defining and executing well-coordinated sectoral policies and programs is the key operational instrument of the overall poverty reduction strategy.

  • - In economic terms, the spillover from the oil economy should spur the development of traditional production sectors in which the majority of the population is involved, in particular the poorest families. In this respect, the rural sector (agriculture, stock farming, fishing, forestry, and hunting), which employs 80 percent of the active population and generates more than 60 percent of rural household income, must play a primary role in the implementation of this strategy. This sector should be able to respond to the demands of a more solvent domestic market and better compete with imports of food products from Cameroon and Nigeria. The sector should gradually boost its productivity;

  • - The ongoing development of the primary sector, the expansion of traditional industries, the emergence of new industries, and the development of closer economic and commercial links between urban and rural areas will result in the increased mobility of people and goods. The infrastructure network—particularly roadways—should adapt to these trends and help reduce factor costs and boost national productivity; and

  • - The oil and post-oil economy requires a skilled labor force. Economic development and social peace require the social sectors to develop at a more rapid pace, both quantitatively (improved access, expanded coverage rates) and qualitatively.

Consequently, the future of poverty reduction is contingent upon a coherent set of effective, well-coordinated intra- and intersectoral initiatives.

1.2 Specific Poverty Reduction Objectives Through 2006

The NPRS is based on five main pillars: (i) promoting good governance; (ii) ensuring strong and sustainable growth; (iii) developing human capital; (iv) improving the living conditions of vulnerable groups; and (v) protecting ecosystems.

Each pillar comprises a series of specific objectives, and priority actions have been identified to attain them. The table below lists the priority actions planned for each objective.

Strategic Pillars—Objectives—Priority Actions

article image
article image

The quantitative targets for 2006 are listed in the table below.

Quantitative Targets for 2006

article image
article image

II. INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM AND MONITORING TOOLS

2.1 Status of Implementation of NPRS Monitoring and Assessment Mechanisms

The mechanisms for monitoring and assessing the NPRS were established in Decree 056/PM/2005 of February 4, 2005, and finalized by Order 023/MPDC/SG/2005 of July 19, 2005. These mechanisms are built around the following three units:

  • The High Committee for NPRS Supervision;

  • The Poverty Observatory; and

  • Local and sectoral entities, which act as the technical interface.

The High Committee for NPRS Supervision is the political entity responsible for supervising the implementation of the strategy. Chaired by the Prime Minister, its membership comprises 21 ministers and the Secretary General of the Office of the President. The government’s economic partners may be invited to take part in meetings. The High Committee is responsible for defining the major guidelines of the strategy, supervising its implementation, and taking the necessary measures to ensure the proper functioning of the units involved to achieve NPRS objectives. It also reviews and adopts the reports and documents prepared by the NPRS Steering Committee. The government makes decisions based on the results of the High Committee’s work, and the institutions and personnel involved then execute those decisions. The administrative aspects of the High Committee are handled by the Economic Unit Coordinator, who prepares the meetings, drafts minutes, and submits them to the entities concerned.

In technical and administrative terms, the Poverty Observatory is responsible for the monitoring mechanism, which comprises a Steering Committee, a Technical Secretariat, and a Communications Unit.

The Steering Committee is the central entity of the Poverty Observatory. Its primary functions are to:

  • Disseminate the NPRS, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and the principles of Sustainable Human Development (SHD), and promote the ownership of these various objectives by all partners involved and by the population as a whole;

  • Validate the sectoral strategies and programs required to implement the NPRS, the MDGs, and SHD;

  • Adopt the schedule proposed for monitoring and assessing the NPRS, the MDGs, and SHD;

  • Ensure that poverty reduction projects and programs are consistent at the sectoral and intersectoral levels, as well as regionally and locally;

  • Assess the impact of NPRS implementation on the beneficiaries;

  • Prepare and implement a communications plan for the NPRS, the MDGs, and SHD;

  • Guide and monitor the activities of the Poverty Observatory’s Technical Secretariat and provide the necessary support so that it can carry out its work;

  • Adopt the budget required to set up and ensure the operation of mechanisms for coordinating the implementation, monitoring, and assessment of the NPRS, the MDGs, and SHD; and

  • Propose periodic reviews of the NPRS.

The Steering Committee has 49 members who represent the public sector (26), civil society organizations and NGOs (16), the private sector (3), the National Assembly (3), and the Oil Revenue Control and Supervision Board (Collège de contrôle et de surveillance des revenus pétroliers—CCSRP) (1).

The public-sector representatives are mainly the general secretaries of the stakeholder ministries. Other public entities, such as the Office of the President of the Republic, the Office of the Prime Minister, the university, the City Hall of N’Djamena, and the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) are also represented in the Steering Committee, which is chaired by the Secretary-General of the Ministry of Planning. The Committee is subdivided into the following five subcommittees, which are responsible for monitoring the priority actions programmed under the five main pillars of the NPRS:

  • (i) Promoting good governance;

  • (ii) Ensuring strong, sustainable development;

  • (iii) Developing human capital;

  • (iv) Improving the living conditions of vulnerable groups; and

  • (v) Restoring and protecting ecosystems.

Each subcommittee monitors the priority actions associated with a given strategic pillar. The subcommittees are made up of individuals selected on the basis of their expertise and area of specialization. If necessary, subcommittee members can take part in the work of another subcommittee. The work of the monitoring subcommittees is supported by the Technical Secretariat of the Poverty Observatory.

The Technical Secretariat of the Poverty Observatory is a small unit attached to the General Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Cooperation. Comprised of both national and international experts, it is responsible for supporting the Steering Committee’s activities of monitoring and assessing the strategy. Its main duties are to:

  • Prepare the meetings of the monitoring subcommittees and the NPRS Steering Committee;

  • Draft monitoring reports on the NPRS, the MDGs, and SHD; and

  • Help to build the capacity of the units in the sectoral and local entities acting as a technical interface.

The Technical Secretariat works with the Directorate of Development Planning, which serves as the Steering Committee Secretariat.

The Communications Unit is responsible for disseminating the NPRS, the MDGs, and SHD. It designs public outreach activities on NPRS objectives and carries out such activities with the support of the public and private media. The Communications Unit operates under the authority of the Secretary-General of the Ministry of Communications and has a staff of four, two each representing the public media and the private media. The unit prepares and implements a communications strategy for the NPRS, and is supported by the Technical Secretariat of the Poverty Observatory.

The sectoral and local entities that act as a technical interface are units responsible for providing the Steering Committee with appropriate data on NPRS implementation by the various ministries and administrative units concerned. These are mainly the National Statistics and Economic and Demographic Research Institute (Institut National de Statistique, des Etudes Economiques et Démographiques - INSEED), the General Directorate of the Budget, the General Directorate of the Treasury, the Directorates of Research and Planning of ministries in the priority sectors, as well as the regional offices of the ministries involved.

These entities are responsible for providing data on poverty trends and the impact of projects on beneficiaries in a given area; coordinating public expenditure reviews in all the priority sectors; and helping to prepare, implement, and monitor program budgets in the ministries concerned.

The authorities in the sectoral entities acting as a technical interface attend the meetings of the Steering Committee and the NPRS monitoring subcommittees.

In the administrative regions, regional committees were set up in October 2003, even before the organic laws now in force had been approved. Their structure and function should therefore be adapted based on the new laws to ensure that social and economic activities focusing on poverty reduction are monitored locally.

In addition, the regional committees are responsible for: (i) increasing public awareness of NPRS objectives; (ii) accurately analyzing the areas concerned; and (iii) producing reports on the implementation status of poverty reduction initiatives. Chaired by the governors of the regions, these Committees are composed of representatives of public services (3), civil society associations (2), NGOs (2), decentralized local governments (2), and the private sector (1).

The different NPRS monitoring units have been established gradually since June 2005, thanks to the technical and financial support of the UNDP through the project to support the monitoring/assessment of the NPRS, the MDGs, and SHD.

The NPRS Steering Committee has met five times since June 2005. This report was prepared with the participation of the NPRS monitoring subcommittees.

2.2 Information System for Monitoring the NPRS

The quality of the NPRS monitoring report depends on the availability of recent, accurate, and relevant statistics (choice of appropriate indicators), and on the quality of the analysis conducted on the results of sectoral policies and strategies and their links to the NPRS.

2.2.1. Choice of NPRS indicators

A national workshop was held in December 2003, during which all members of the NPRS Steering Committee, the INSEED, and the statistical units of the sectoral ministries initially selected 206 indicators. The number of indicators selected was subsequently considered to be unrealistic for the following reasons:

  • - Chad has limited statistical resources; and

  • - Many indicators require data sources and compilation methods that have not yet been identified.

In August 2005, another national workshop was held to review the list, which contained 109 indicators (91 quantitative and 18 qualitative) divided into three categories:

  • The first category comprises ten indicators that measure structural phenomena, such as monetary poverty and mortality; these trends are normally observed through ECOSIT, EDST, or EIMT surveys, conducted every five years;

  • The second category contains a core of 53 indicators for tracking NPRS and MDG execution (25 performance indicators and 28 results indicators), which are used to perform an annual assessment of NPRS implementation status. In principle, these indicators are observable. Furthermore, researchers were able to reconstruct the benchmark conditions and recent trends for these indicators and use them to estimate the current values; and

  • The third category is a supplementary list of 28 indicators for monitoring the NPRS and the MDGs (9 performance indicators and 19 results indicators). These indicators can no longer be systematically monitored; consequently, they should be further defined and observation and calculation methods for producing reliable indicators for the implementation of NPRS objectives and corresponding sectoral strategies should be identified.

2.2.2. Observability of changes in indicators

The groundwork has been laid for the 53 indicators in the second category, which are the core NPRS and MDG tracking indicators. This task was completed thanks to recent surveys and the use of appropriate administrative sources.

(a) The surveys

  • Agricultural statistics are calculated using the permanent agricultural survey (Enquête Permanente Agricole - EPA). This survey provides data on production factors, cultivated land, crop yields, and production. Data on cotton, tobacco, sugarcane and gum arabic, the main cash crops, are collected using specific mechanisms.5 Despite external financing being ended in 1999, the EPA has continued without interruptions (it is financed from the national budget); provisional results are available in October of the year in progress and are used to calculate the cereals balance sheet for the crop year. The statistical yearbook, published in March of the following year, provides the final results for the crop year.

  • The Demographic and Health Survey in Chad (Enquête Démographique et de Santé au Tchad -EDST) was conducted in 2004 and published in 2005 by INSEED. Data are collected on household characteristics, particularly the status of women (fertility, family planning, marriage rate, pregnancy risk exposure, mother and child health, mother/child nutrition status, infant mortality, and maternal mortality); and on STDs, HIV/AIDS, and the availability of community services.

(b) Administrative sources of data

The sectoral ministries and other units provide the following data:

  • - Stock farming statistics: problems with tracebacks are the reason why data publication has been delayed and why the 2004 Statistical Report has not yet been published. Data on livestock are approximate and the variables for which data are available are limited. A livestock survey project is scheduled for 2007/2008, however. The preparatory phase will be launched in 2006 with FAO financing.

  • - Education statistics: these data are compiled, processed, and published by the Ministry of National Education, based on an annual school census6 (conducted in February/March) of basic, secondary, and post-secondary education. The most recent data available, however, are for 2003/2004.

  • - Health statistics: the publication of this statistical yearbook is behind schedule (the most recent yearbook is the 2003 edition). Nevertheless, data for the 1996–2003 period are available.

Improving the formulation of poverty reduction policies and programs and the monitoring of NPRS implementation means also improving the conditions under which statistical data are generated (quantitative and qualitative data). To that end, plans have been made to perform a detailed study of the national statistics system—focusing on meeting user needs—and of the capacities of sectoral statistics producers and INSEED.

III. NPRS IMPLEMENTATION – TOWARD GOOD GOVERNANCE

In 2001–2002, the National Secretariat for Capacity Building (Secrétariat National pour le Renforcement des Capacités - SENAREC) prepared a National Good Governance Strategy (Stratégie Nationale de Bonne Gouvernance - SNBG), which was adopted by the High Interministerial Committee in August 2002. Several of the SNBG objectives that give top priority to governance and security were included in the NPRS, in accordance with the wishes of the population consulted during the NPRS preparatory phase.

3.1. The SNBG Program of Action

The main goal of this strategy is to improve the administration of public affairs based on the following five pillars:

  • 1. Administrative reform to improve the performance and increase the transparency of public sector management. This involves: (i) systematically assessing public institutions to redefine the State’s role and mission; (ii) reforming the justice system to increase its independence and enhance its integrity; (iii) building the capacities of the Audit Office, the final auditor of government finances; and (iv) supporting deconcentration and decentralization by building human and institutional capacities and through communications.

  • 2. Fiscal consolidation, in particular: (i) controlling expenditure and revenue management; (ii) reforming public procurement by streamlining procedures, preparing a simplified guide for purchasers (government units) and bidders (providers), and publishing an information bulletin containing procurement procedures and the result of invitations to bid.

  • 3. Reforming high-priority sectors so that they can play a more effective role in the country’s economic and social development and, in particular, in combating poverty.

  • 4. Strengthening the partnership between the public sector, the private sector, civil society organizations, and citizens through the following measures: (i) implementing a communications plan for public affairs management with the support of public and private media; (ii) strengthening national dialogue between public and private actors; (iii) implementing a capacity-building program for human rights organizations; and (iv) creating a national mediation office (la Médiature) to settle disputes between communities or between the State and groups of individuals.

  • 5. Improving security for people and property, by: (i) effectively controlling the program for the demobilization of military personnel and their reintegration into civilian life; (ii) systematically disarming civilians who possess weapons of war; (iii) cleaning up (demining) mined areas; and (iv) reinforcing public security forces and establishing a partnership between the police and the population.

A joint committee comprising representatives of the public sector, the private sector, and civil society, set up in 2003, is responsible for implementing this strategy.

3.2. The SNBG and the SNRP

In accordance with the wishes of the government and the Chadian people, the NPRS places high priority on good governance and has incorporated many of the main objectives outlined in the SNBG:

  • (a) improve the effectiveness and efficiency of general government through the following measures: (i) pursuing civil service reforms; (ii) building the capacities of actors in the public sector, the private sector, and civil society; and (ii) fighting corruption; and

  • (b) improve the legal environment by: (i) reforming the justice system so that it gains credibility in the eyes of the people; (ii) restoring the security of people and property; and (iii) reforming the National Army into a professional army focused on development work.

3.3. NPRS Implementation in the Area of Governance

General government reform:

  • (a) An organizational and institutional audit has been performed in nine pilot ministries (national education, public health, social action and families, postsecondary education, agriculture, stock farming, justice, planning, and finance). The government has adopted an action plan to implement the recommendations and begun the process of recruiting a firm that will be responsible for auditing the other ministries.

  • (b) Work has begun on revising all government personnel regulations. Thus far, some common rules have been established but pay scales have yet to be determined. This issue will be addressed in a document that will also determine the types of compensation that should be granted to some categories of civil servants and other government personnel, in light of the special constraints to which they are subject.

Government finance management: the following measures were taken to place overall government finances on a sound footing, increase tax and non-tax revenue, reduce deficits, and restructure spending to benefit the priority sectors:

  • (a) The ratio of tax and non-tax revenues rose from 7.4 percent of GDP in 2001 to 8 percent in 2002, 8.7 percent in 2003, and 10.5 percent in 2004. This figure should reach 12.4 percent in 2005. This growth is attributable mainly to increased oil revenues (3.4 percent of GDP in 2004 and 5.4 percent in 2005). Other tax revenues also recorded a significant increase over the past five years (from CFAF 79 billion in 2001 to CFAF 119 billion in 2004 and CFAF 143 billion in 2005), despite the fact that their share of GDP has been stable at around 6 percent since 2001;

  • (b) The government has been able to stabilize current and total expenditures since 2002-2003. In fact, current expenditures fell from 10 percent of GDP in 2002 to around 7 percent in 2004–2005. Total expenditures also dropped, from 24 percent of GDP in 2003 to 18–19 percent in 2004–2005;

  • (c) The opposing trends in revenues and expenditures have enabled the government to put its fiscal house in order. The primary budget deficit of 1–2 percent of GDP in 2001–2002 became a surplus of 1–2 percent in 2004–2005. The overall deficit (commitment basis, excluding grants) shrank from 10–13 percent of GDP in 2001–2003 to around 7–8 percent in 2004–2005. Recent cash flow problems are due to errors in revenue forecasting and in the management of some expenditures, as well as to the collapse of budget assistance (grants and loans), which totaled CFAF 51 billion in 2002 (around 4 percent of GDP), but barely exceeded CFAF 1 billion in 2004 (0.1 percent of GDP); and

  • (d) Government expenditure was fundamentally restructured. As shown in the table on trends in government finance attached to this report (Annex 1), the relative share of the nine priority economic and social sectors (education, health, social action, public works, agriculture, stock farming, water/environment, and land management) increased from 32 percent of total expenditures (executed) to 66 percent in 2004. Equally, 66 percent of the 2005 budget allocations are earmarked for the priority sectors.

Fiscal consolidation was accompanied by institutional and structural reforms aimed at improving the monitoring and transparency of financial management and combating corruption:

  • (a) A simplified and automated expenditure system is now operational, as is the Integrated Expenditure Circuit (CID) and the wiring and linkups between the Treasury, the Payroll Office, and the Information Technology Unit. This reform of public expenditure management and monitoring will be pursued. A fiscal modernization plan (PAMFIP) was prepared with the support of the World Bank;

  • (b) The concept of program budgets was introduced. All of the priority ministries adopted this system, which seeks to promote detailed strategic discussions on the relative priority of the ministries’ main activities and spending programs;

  • (c) Specialized studies were launched to assess expenditure efficiency and verify that programmed funds did in fact reach their intended recipients and had the expected impact on the quality of public services. A report on the implementation of the Comprehensive Expenditure Tracking System was prepared for the health sector, in the context of the Institutional Reform Support Credit (IRSC). The survey of health services users has been completed and the report was adopted;

  • (d) A new public procurement code was adopted and the enabling decrees were published. Bid assessment committees were set up in the priority sectors and in the other ministries as well. Eight quarterly bulletins were published informing the public of prospective invitations to bid and the results of adjudicated competitions; and

  • (e) With the support of an international auditing firm, the Audit Office of the Supreme Court audited the government contracts awarded in 2001 and 2002, and these reports were subsequently published. An audit report on the expenditures made in 2003 using poverty reduction funds (HIPC Initiative) was finalized in 2004.

    Regarding the fight against corruption, the Ministry for General Oversight of the Government and Ethics launched a series of activities to instill ethics, improve discipline, and create a new climate of transparency and integrity in all areas of governance:

    • Design of ads to raise public awareness, activities to promote ethical conduct, and a study on the fight against corruption (broadcast on Chadian national radio (RNT) and television);

    • A national survey on the perception of corruption is underway throughout the country;

    • Numerous meetings with officials responsible for different ministerial departments to encourage them to adhere to the strategy to fight corruption and to respect ethics and the rules of professional conduct;

    • Preparation of a draft law on illicit enrichment (underway); and

  • (f) Finally, the Oil Revenue Control and Supervision Board produced a report on the management of these revenues in 2004 by the relevant units in the priority sectors.

Improving the legal environment:

  • (a) Following the 2003 Justice Forum, progress was made in 2004 and 2005 with the implementation of justice action plan and the recommendations made during that meeting, in particular:

    • A decree was in issued in 2004 appointing the chair and members of the committee responsible for monitoring the recommendations arising from the Justice Forum;

    • The Justice Reform program was approved by decree in 2005;

    • The post of Justice de paix was created in some departments, sub-prefectures, and arrondissements of N’Djamena;

    • A draft law was prepared in which some provisions of the Criminal Code benefiting children are amended and supplemented; and

    • Five trainers, two of whom are judges and three prison administrators, received training.

  • (b) The most significant step is the creation of commercial courts in all the regional capitals other than N’Djamena. The purpose of this initiative is to facilitate the settlement of trade disputes and ensure that the private sector believes the legal and professional criteria underlying judicial decisions to be credible.

  • (c) In this spirit, the government appointed the judges and clerks for the N’Djamena commercial court during the first quarter of 2005. Appointments to courts in Bongor, Abéché, Moundou, and Sarh were made in August 2005.

  • (d) In addition, the 2004 expenditure review of the justice system identified a number of problems with absorption capacity, which affected how the resources allocated to the Ministry of Justice were used.

  • (e) Plans are also being made to:

    • Build two Courts of Appeal in two major towns (Moundou et Abéché);

    • Train judges and clerks; and

    • Build the capacity of judicial personnel.

Security of people and property:

  • (a) A draft law on migratory herds and nomadism was prepared jointly by the public mediation office and the Ministry of Territorial Administration to replace Law 4 of 1959, which had become obsolete. If adopted, this law will serve as a code of conduct for settling farmer-herder disputes, which have multiplied in recent years. The implementation of the new law should help to reestablish social peace in the affected rural areas by better organizing the movement of livestock.

  • (b) A Ministry of Public Security and Immigration was created. The program to collect weapons of war from civilians is now underway. The new minister has decided to suspend all purchases and sales of handguns.

  • (c) Some mine clearance activities were carried out in the northern region of the country, but financial constraints delayed the implementation of the National Strategic Plan Against Mines and Unexploded Shells.

  • (d) The Armed Forces Forum held in April 2005 marks a significant step toward achieving one of the core objectives of the NPRS and the SNBG. The recommendations adopted during the meetings should encourage the government to promote the reforms necessary to professionalize the military, make it more dynamic, and restore its credibility in the eyes of the people. In particular, this effort would involve: (i) reorganizing the different branches of the military and improving the organization of troops, whose number should not exceed 30,000 by 2007; and (ii) improving the rate of promotions and wage increases, and setting the amount of compensation payable to demobilized troops. A committee was set up to track the implementation of these recommendations.

3.4. Assessment of Measures Taken and Governance Reforms Implemented

Governance reform is a long-term task that should be pursued vigorously by the Chadian authorities, with the support of civil society and the effective participation of all national institutions and the population as a whole. In most of the other sectors, the foundations of reform have been laid and the main guidelines discussed and approved. What remains now is to better define the concrete measures that should be taken and begin their implementation.

Administrative reform is a good example of this type of situation. Institutional audits should now be conducted in all the other ministries, and the conclusions and recommendations of completed audits should be implemented. Civil service recruitment methods and incentive systems (salaries and promotions based on merit and performance) should be modernized, as should measures to promote government ethics. The adoption of codes of ethics, the reinforcement of controls, and the sanctioning of infractions are the most important conditions for making progress toward good governance.

IV. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NPRS – TOWARD SUSTAINED GROWTH

The NPRS was prepared in 2001–2003, at the same time as investments were being made to develop the Doba oilfields. The first two years of strategy implementation coincided with the beginning of crude oil development in Chad. Oil production rose from 12.2 million barrels per day in 2003 to 63 million barrels in 2004, and will likely reach 80.7 million barrels in 2005. Nevertheless, Chad benefited little from the surge in international crude prices that began in 2004. In fact, a drop in quality stabilized the price of Chadian oil at around CFAF 15,000–17,000 per barrel.

The investment period and the beginnings of development had a considerable impact on GDP growth rates and the structure of Chad’s economy. The main challenge now is to diversify the economy and make all of its sectors more dynamic by implementing structural measures to avoid the polarization of the national economy. In this context, the NPRS places special significance on strategies to ensure strong and sustainable growth that helps to reduce poverty, in particular by: (i) developing infrastructure to support production (roads, communications, energy, and water resources management); and (ii) ensuring the sustainable growth of agricultural production and other productive activities in rural areas.

4.1. Supporting Robust Growth by Developing Oil Resources

While GDP recorded slightly negative growth in 2000, it has since continued to accelerate, from 10.6 percent in 2001 to 7.3 percent in 2002, 15.1 percent in 2003, and finally to 33.4 percent in 2004. The end of the investment period and what will likely be the temporary stabilization of oil production will lead to a slowdown in growth. Nevertheless, the GDP growth rate should remain at around 13 percent in 2005.

GDP Growth

(in percent)

article image
Source: INSEED

The table above shows the growth rate of total GDP and non-oil GDP, as well as the growth rate per capita for each type of GDP measurement over the past five years. It clearly shows the strong growth in GDP per capita, attributable mainly to oil production. With the exception of 2004, however, non-oil GDP growth (overall and per capita) was satisfactory, recording figures well above the average for the past decade. It could be said, then, that oil production had some positive, indirect effects on most of the other sectors of the economy.

4.2 Transforming the Structure of the Economy

Oil development has fundamentally shifted the country’s production and trade. Once dominated by agricultural-pastoral activities and services, Chad’s economy now depends largely on oil production. In 2004, the oil GDP already accounted for one-third of total GDP and 80 percent of export proceeds. The two tables below show the annual growth rates for different sectors of the economy and the change in the sectoral distribution of GDP since 2001.

Annual Growth Rates of Different Sectors in Chad’s Economy

(In percent)

article image

Distribution of GDP by Sector, 2001–2005

(As a percentage of total GDP)

article image

Weather changes continue to be the main factor affecting the growth or stagnation of the non-oil economy and particularly the primary sector (agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, and hunting). After a good harvest and a 4.6 percent growth rate in 2003, the primary sector was seriously affected in 2004 by scant and irregular rainfall, an invasion of migrant locusts that devastated food crops, soil impoverishment, the appearance of striga, desert encroachment, and insufficient pastureland (negative growth of minus 19.3 percent). The good performance of industrial crops (cotton and gum arabic) only partially compensated for declining food production, and the primary sector recorded negative growth (minus 3.3 percent) in 2004. Increased rainfall has led to expectations of a strong upsurge in the production of subsistence crops and satisfactory growth in the primary sector in 2005. Nevertheless, the share of the primary sector in Chad’s GDP fell from more than 40 percent in 2000-2001 to 23–25 percent in 2004–2005.

This development is significant, as the majority of the poor population works in the primary sector. Without strong and sustainable growth in agricultural production and stock farming, poverty reduction will be extremely difficult to achieve over the next few years. It is in this context that efforts are being made to develop basic infrastructure and improve rural sector performance.

4.3. Favorable Development of Foreign Exchange

The development of the main foreign trade aggregates is characterized primarily by a strong increase in the trade deficit (CFAF 978 billion in 2002) and the balance of services (CFAF 420 billion in 2002), caused by the jump in goods and services imports during the oil investment period. The beginning of the production period resulted in a net trade surplus (CFAF 763 billion in 2004 and CFAF 1,272 billion in 2005). Oil development also led to an overall decrease in the income balance (remuneration of expatriate employees and particularly the remuneration of private investment), but the current account deficit (CFAF 422 billion in 2001 and CFAF 1,391 billion in 2002) has shrunk significantly since that time (CFAF 156 billion in 2004 to just CFAF 55 billion in 2005).

4.4. Basic Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure development can clearly help to improve the living conditions of the most disadvantaged segments of the population by facilitating the servicing of landlocked areas and by improving access to safe drinking water, new sources of renewable energy, and finally, adequate communication tools. Significant efforts have been made in this area and the proportion of total public spending (actual disbursements) on public works has increased from 4.9 percent in 2001-2002 to more than 23 percent in 2003–2004.

4.4.1. The transport sector

Chad’s landlocked geographical position poses one of the greatest obstacles to its economic development, and the isolation of many remote regions is one of the principal factors contributing to Chadian poverty. The nearest seaport, Douala, is 1,700 kilometers from N’Djamena. Other foreign seaports that Chad uses are Lagos (1,900 kilometers from N’Djamena), Cotonou (2,000 kilometers away), Lomé (2,100 kilometers away), Pointe Noire (2,700 kilometers away), and Port Sudan (3,350 kilometers away). Chad’s landlocked position also creates the additional problem of exorbitant transport costs.

The government prepared a National Transport Program (PNT) for the period 2000 to 2009, the primary objective of which is to contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction by:

  • opening up domestic and external access;

  • reducing transport costs for both domestic transport and foreign trade;

  • ensuring a minimum standard of access to all regions of the country, even during the rainy season;

  • maintaining an adequate highway network connecting the country’s principal cities, suitable for use year-round;

  • liberalizing the transport sector and modernizing transport administration; and

  • developing rural infrastructure.

(a) Opening up domestic and external access:

The PNT assigns priority to three key corridors in the national highway system, and significant progress has been made in these areas:

  • in the Sudan corridor (N’Djamena-Abéché-Sudanese border: 1,063 kilometers in total), 74 kilometers have now been surfaced, and 226 kilometers are being paved;

  • in the Cameroon corridor (N’Djamena-Moundou-Cameroonian border: 586 kilometers in total), 80 percent of the road had been surfaced as of March 2005; and

  • in the Nigeria/Niger corridor (N’Djamena-Massakory-Bol), 77 kilometers have been completed on the section between N’Djamena and Massaguet, but work on the full 249 kilometers has not yet begun due to a lack of financing.

These three corridors are very important for reducing the country’s isolation. Together, the roads connecting Chad and Cameroon and Chad and Nigeria carry 96 percent to 98 percent of all the country’s international freight.

The total length of asphalt-paved road was extended from 557 kilometers in 2002 to 650 kilometers in 2004, and will increase to 736 kilometers by end-2005. By that time, 82 percent of the 900 kilometers of road planned under the NPRS will have been completed.

Road maintenance is also crucial to reducing the country’s isolation and ensuring a minimum level of access to all the country’s regions. In 2004, maintenance work was done on 87 percent of the year-round road system and 53.2 percent of the seasonal road system. Under the PNT, some dirt roads were to have been improved, but in fact no significant rehabilitation work was carried out.

The table below shows the portion of the permanent road system being maintained.

article image
Source: General Directorate of Roadways/DER

The table shows that particular attention was given to the permanent network, of which only 9 percent was not maintained. Conversely, ongoing preventive maintenance is conducted only on previously rehabilitated seasonal roadways.

Maintenance is funded out of the Highway Maintenance Fund (FER), which collects toll revenues, the road freight fees charged by the National Freight Bureau (Bureau National de Fret—BNF), as well as oil tax revenues and resources generated from concession contracts for road network projects. From 2002/2003 to 2003/2004, FER resources increased from CFAF 3,762 billion to CFAF 5,745 billion, nearly 53 percent. In 2004, the Road Maintenance Directorate maintained 2,300 kilometers of road, or 88.4 percent of the annual target of 2,600 kilometers. This progress was achieved through the use of HIPC funds and the improved mobilization of the enterprises involved.

(b) Traffic flows and transport costs

In terms of the transport of goods, most domestic traffic flows are concentrated in two regions. All of the country’s major road networks converge on N’Djamena, the capital, which is the point of origin for 24 percent of such traffic flows and the destination for 46 percent of total traffic. Although the region of Mandoul and its capital city, Koumra, have no paved roads, they receive 52 percent of domestic traffic flows (221,324 metric tons). In fact, the region is a hub for Tandjilé, Moyen Chari, and Eastern Logone, and receives goods from N’Djamena, Nigeria, and Cameroon destined for the region or in transit to Moyen Chari.

A01ufig01

Domestic Trade by Origin/Destination in 2004

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 282; 10.5089/9781451836479.002.A001

Source: BNF

The fact that the N’Djamena—Moundou tract of highway is fully paved makes it very attractive to economic agents. Its market should also be one of the largest in the region. The Hadjer Lamis region, situated near N’Djamena, produces cereals and provides food products to the capital. The regions of Batha and BET are the most disadvantaged in terms of domestic trade. The BET region, located in the middle of the desert, is enormously constrained by the lack of roadways. The Batha region lacks road links with the two large cities of N’Djamena and Abéché, which explains the lack of road traffic. The Lac, Salamat, Guera, and South Ouaddaï egions, which have significant agricultural potential, are also limited by an underdeveloped road network.

A01ufig02

Price Trends in the Transport of Goods

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 282; 10.5089/9781451836479.002.A001

Source: DTS/INSEED, 2005

The graph above shows a high variation in transport prices by region. Transport prices are particularly high for the N’Djamena-Mongo and N’Djamena-Abéché corridors, whose stretches of dirt road often make travel during the rainy season impracticable. The situation has much improved along the Sarh-Dananmadji corridor, however. There, transport prices for all goods are relatively low and likely attributable to road maintenance, the region’s economic attractiveness, and its traffic density.

Passenger transport is on the rise. Taking into account only vehicles used exclusively for the carriage of passengers, domestic traffic has reached 3,078 vehicles per day, in comparison with 2,093 vehicle per day in 1999, for an annual growth rate of 8 percent.

A01ufig03

Price Trends in Passenger Transport

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 282; 10.5089/9781451836479.002.A001

Source: INSEED, Series 1: 2001, Series 2: 2005

The graph shows that passenger transport prices (CFAF/km) vary by corridor and road accessibility. In 2001, the Sarh-Danamadji segment had the highest cost at CFAF 33/km, or 2.5 times the cost of the N’Djamena-Sarh segment, which is 11 times as long. This is likely due to the road conditions of these two corridors, particularly during the rainy season.

A01ufig04

Trends in Passenger Transport, 2001–2005

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 282; 10.5089/9781451836479.002.A001

Source: INSEED, 2005

Transport costs are tending to decline, however. Admittedly, the cost of the Bongor-Pala segment has increased significantly, due in part to the worsening state of the roads (despite maintenance) and a demand for transport that exceeds supply, as well as distance and the rainy season. Conversely, the Bongor-Fianga and Sarh-Dananmadji segments show a much more favorable price trend due to better road conditions.

(c) Development of rural infrastructure

One of the objectives of the PNT is to improve the transport system in rural areas. Thus far, the progress made in this area has been limited. To boost efforts in this area, the government has established the Rural Roads Directorate (DRPR), which will assume responsibility for implementing the rural transport component of the National Transport Program Support Project (PAPRONAT) financed by the World Bank.

The government recently drew up a five-year investment plan for investing CFAF 4 billion a year in rural roads during the period 2006 to 2010. This plan will make it possible to rehabilitate 3,000–4,000 kilometers of rural roads, using government funding from oil revenues. In addition, some major projects include a rural roads component. Examples are the construction of 100 kilometers of rural roads in the target area identified under the sixth EDF (financed by the European Union), the project to rehabilitate rural roads in the old Biltine region (financed by the Swiss development cooperation agency), and the project to rehabilitate and maintain rural roads in the old Mayo-Kebbi region (financed by the German development cooperation agency, KFW).

4.4.2. Access to water

The Master Plan for Water and Sanitation (SDEA) for 2003–2020 follows up on the recommendations made at the United Nations Conference on integrated water resources management (Harare, 1998), which were adopted at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002). The participatory, comprehensive, and integrated approach of this plan, as well as its focus on local activities, make it consistent with the approach of the NPRS. The objective is twofold: to improve access to water in urban and rural areas, and to turn over the management of water resources to the population.

Clear progress has been made in this area. Thanks to the expansion of infrastructure, the proportion of the population having access to drinking water has increased from 23 percent in 2000 to 28 percent in 2002, 32 percent in 2003, and 36 percent in 2004. In general, beneficiaries are given the responsibility for managing such facilities as soon as they have been completed.

article image

These projects are financed primarily with HIPC funds and oil revenues.

4.4.3. Energy

This sector, still underdeveloped, is characterized by the high consumption of wood fuels (wood-charcoal), which account for 90 percent of Chad’s total energy consumption, while conventional energy sources (oil and electricity) account for only 10 percent.

From 2001 to 2005, annual energy consumption increased from 240 to 292 kilograms of oil equivalent per inhabitant. During the past several years, however, the energy sector has been experiencing a crisis that has severely affected the Chadian economy.

The main objective of the policy and strategy letter for Chad’s electricity subsector (for 2002–2006) is to meet the electricity needs of the population and expand access to electric power for all other production sectors, all at the lowest possible cost. It also aims to promote alternative sources of energy (solar and wind energy) so as to lessen the impact of the cutting of firewood on the regeneration of forest resources.

To this end, the letter contains the following measures, which have been proposed to reduce the cost of each kilowatt-hour and expand access to electricity for much of the population:

  • - building a new power plant in Farcha;

  • - resuming negotiations on electric interconnections between Chad and Cameroon;

  • - completing the project to develop the Sédigui oilfield;

  • - building a mini-refinery in Farcha; and

  • - concluding the study on the possibility of using crude from Doba or Sédigui or gas-oil from the distillation column (topping unit)

Furthermore, the action plan outlined in this letter is a type of crisis recovery plan. Thus, during this period, the government has been focusing its efforts on rehabilitating resources and boosting the production capacity of the Chadian Water and Electric Power Corporation (STEE) by:

  • - acquiring 4 CAT generators with an installed capacity of 5 megawatts (emergency loan) and installed and operational MBH generators since early 2005 (Crédit Libanais); and

  • - rehabilitating some generators in the old power plant

As a result of these efforts, the production capacity of STEE in N’Djamena increased from 9 MW to nearly 25 MW. Outside the capital, some towns now have electricity and the existing infrastructure has been improved.

The crucial problem of electricity in Chad is linked to the fuel supply. National energy resources must be used to resolve this problem.

The government is preparing a national energy strategy and a national rural electrification plan.

4.4.4. Postal and telecommunications services

A postal and telecommunications strategy is now being finalized. The aim is to improve the coverage of urban and rural areas, particularly by expanding mobile (cellular) telephone systems. The Sotel Tchad telephone company operates a network consisting of interurban transmission links and infrastructure connecting 16 cities and towns across the country. In 2004, Sotel Tchad had approximately 13,000 subscribers to fixed telephony services.

Fixed Subscriber Grow

article image
Source: OTRT

The mobile telephony market has been growing rapidly. In 2004, there were approximately 120,000 mobile subscribers.

Mobile Subscriber Growth

article image

The growth in mobile telephony has significantly improved the population’s access to telephone service (15 percent in 2004). This percentage is sure to increase when the Millicom company (TIGO) enters the Chadian market.

The rural telephony project was able to install VSAT antennas in 15 secondary towns of the 24 originally identified, for a 63 percent completion rate. The Internet penetration rate is only 0.3 per 1,000 population.

The Ministry of Posts and New Communications Technologies (MPNTC) is currently drawing up a National Information Technology and Telecommunications Strategy.

4.5 Foundations for Sustainable Growth in Agricultural Production

The National Rural Development Strategy was presented to the international community at the Sectoral Consultation on Rural Development in June 1999.

The overall objective of the strategy is to boost sustainable production growth within a more secure environment and to strengthen the capacities of the rural sector. To that end, five specific objectives were established:

  • increasing production;

  • encouraging the emergence of competitive enterprises;

  • managing and making optimum use of natural resources;

  • promoting the rural milieu; and

  • improving the effectiveness of public interventions

Two strategic pillars of the NPRS—strong, sustained growth and protection of ecosystems—reflect the objectives of the National Rural Development Strategy.

The implementation of this strategy has involved a number of collaborative efforts by the government, donors, civil society, the private sector, and so on. These efforts resulted in the preparation of the Rural Development Intervention Plan in 2003, comprising a Local Development Support Program (PROADEL) and a Sectoral Capacity Building Program (PROSE). In addition, a National Food Security Program (PNSA) covering the period up to 2015, stemming from the PROSE, and a Master Plan for Agriculture were prepared and adopted in 2005. A subprogram for microfinance development has also been developed. Lastly, a National Stock farming Development Plan is in preparation.

A permanent unit responsible for monitoring the agricultural sector has been established and is operational. It publishes an information bulletin, Al Nougara, on the monitoring mechanism of the Sectoral Meeting on Rural Development.

Increased production—on which the growth of the sector and poverty reduction depend—is contingent on crop diversification, increased productivity, and ensuring food security in rural areas.

As a result of increased investment in water management facilities for crops and livestock, the land area benefiting from such facilities was increased from 20,000 hectares in 2003 to 27,000 hectares in 2005. In the stock farming sector, 80 wells were sunk and 25 pumping stations installed. These accomplishments are not enough, however. Herders continue to travel long distances in search of water, and transhumance often provokes conflicts between farmers and herders, or among herders themselves.

Thanks to reduced prices for farm equipment, the proportion of farms with equipment rose from 24 percent in 2004 to 26.12 percent in 2005. By using the resources derived from equipment sales, and with the support of projects now underway, the proportion of farms with equipment should grow by at least 2 percent a year.

Achievements in microfinance have paled in comparison with the growing needs of producers. In most cases, microfinance activities are integrated into projects and also support programs for the development and diversification of production, as well as income-generating activities. Finding appropriate solutions to the problems of rural credit and local financial intermediation is the top priority in fighting poverty, particularly in rural areas.

Measures to protect crops are largely inadequate. Chad has received considerable amounts of international assistance from over 20 countries to help it fight locust invasions, but the same is not true for other traditional enemies of crops (caterpillars, Spanish flies, and grain-eating birds) which can also wreak enormous destruction.

Despite the investments already made, the country’s food situation continues to be marked by chronic grain shortages. Nationwide production varies sharply from year to year, but it is almost never sufficient to meet the country’s grain demand, which is reckoned at 1,480,000 metric tons a year for a population estimated at 9.3 million (based on a standard of 159 kilograms per inhabitant per year).

A01ufig05

Coverage of Grain Demand by Local Production

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 282; 10.5089/9781451836479.002.A001

Source: DSA/MA, Grain production from 1994/1995 to 2003/2004

To overcome this shortfall, a package of policies, programs, and projects needs to be implemented to ensure proper water management, access to means of production, and capacity-building in rural areas.

Rural development also occurs through the emergence of competitive industries.

Cotton growing provides rural dwellers with their largest source of income. Although it is the most well-organized part of the rural economy and has received significant support from the government and donors, it faces serious problems that affect the entire production chain. The amount of cotton produced varies greatly: it reached 186,300 metric tons in 1999–2000, declined sharply in 2002–03, and then increased to 220,000 metric tons in 2003–04. The decline in output was mainly due to unattractively low producer prices and problems in getting the product to market. There are often delays (of up to six months) in paying cotton growers. This situation discourages production and has a highly negative impact on poverty reduction in rural areas. The government and its partners have drawn up a list of measures to be taken—the “road map”—in preparation for the effective privatization of Cotontchad in June 2007.

Insofar as a crop diversification policy is concerned, a number of studies have been carried out with a view to developing new sorts of agricultural production, particularly poultry raising, stock farming close to urban centers, spirulina harvesting, and cattle finishing. None of these studies has resulted in new projects being undertaken thus far.

Chad is the second largest producer of gum arabic in the world, and this business is thriving. Total production for 2005 was 18,000 metric tons. It contributes 7 percent to GDP. The production of sesame and peanuts could also be significant sources of income for rural populations, although these crops are not well known, and their production is poorly developed and badly organized.

One high-priority objective common to all rural sector programs and the poverty reduction strategy is the organization of the rural milieu. The government is aiming to have producers’ organizations take on responsibilities and to involve them in managing the rural sector: Representatives of these organizations sit on project steering committees and participate in the design and execution of sectoral reforms. Efforts to promote the rural milieu increased the number of producers’ organizations from 33,000 in 2003 to 35,000 in 2005. What is needed now is to improve the framework within which these organizations operate to strengthen their capacities and make them true development partners.

Another key measure to further the development of the rural sector is the deconcentration of the ministries involved in the rural sector. To improve the effectiveness of the National Bureau of Rural Development, the government decided to give it an organizational structure consisting of one national directorate, seven rural development regions, 45 rural development districts, and 191 rural development zones. These entities are not as effective as they should be, however, because they lack adequate resources and genuine authority.

Despite its slow pace of implementation, the rural development strategy has improved producers’ access to means of production, facilitated the dissemination of new techniques, and strengthened the capacities of the main actors. It has also mobilized resources—from both the government and donors—for the development of the rural sector. However, the resources are insufficient, the beneficiaries are not yet well organized, and the responsible entities do not possess the necessary capacities to be able to complete programs and projects, improve the performance of the rural sector, and reduce rural poverty. Agriculture and livestock accounted for 6.9 percent of Chad’s total public spending (actual disbursements) in 2001–02, 7.3 percent in 2003, and 11.1 percent in 2004. Agriculture and livestock appropriations in the 2005 budget amounted to 11.3 percent of total planned spending.

V. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NPRS – DEVELOPING HUMAN CAPITAL

Human resources promotion is essential if Chadians are to assume their rightful role in their country’s socioeconomic development.

5.1 The education sector

5.1.1. Education policy and the NPRS

Since early independence, the Chadian educational system inherited from French colonization has been subject to several constraints: poorly designed programs, a system that fails to meet output needs, strong pressure from unsatisfied enrollment demand from a growing population, and insufficient teaching supervision. Attempts at reforms (ruralization of the educational system in the 1960s and 1970s, “Chadization” of schools in the 1970s and 1980s, and a few pedagogical innovations) yielded disappointing results. As a result of the protracted political turmoil experienced by the country, communities took their children’s future into their own hands. This community initiative came about as a result of the education services offered by the government, which were inadequate and unsuitable. Even today, communities organized into Parent Teachers Associations pay over 60 percent of the primary school teachers known as maîtres communautaires, or community teachers, and spend almost CFAF2 billion to run primary schools (30 percent for the physical running of the schools and over 70 percent directly for running classes).

According to estimates, the poor account for almost 80 percent of Chad’s population. Of their total expenditure, 1.3 percent is spent on education. This proportion is double that spent by the better-off on education. The problem is particularly acute in urban areas, where, of total expenditure, the share of spending on education is twice that of rural households.

In the early 1990s, the government of Chad adopted an “Education-Training-Employment” [EFE] strategy. This strategy was based on two basic approaches, namely: (i) a quality-oriented strategy aimed at improving system performance through a revitalization of educational and training units, and (ii) a quantity-oriented strategy aimed at a moderate expansion of school and university enrollment, so that enrollment can be adjusted on an ongoing basis to keep pace with the country’s demographic, economic, and sociocultural changes. Implementation of this EFE Strategy in 1993 yielded appreciable results.

The strategy was strengthened as of 2000 through a new vision of educational policy based on three strategic pillars: (i) better (more equitable) access to education; (ii) an improvement in the quality of teaching and learning conditions; and (iii) building capacity in the administration, planning, management, and steering of the educational system. The National Poverty Reduction Strategy adopted in 2003 by the government and its partners embraced this vision by setting a twofold objective: validate the strides made by the communities while gradually reducing the burden of the schools on poorer communities.

The government’s education and training policy is taken into account in the NPRS inasmuch as education is one of the instruments available to the country to reduce hardship and vulnerability. Through education, households are afforded more income options, the labor force becomes more mobile, maternal and child health are improved, and fertility and child mortality can be reduced. Education is therefore a determining factor in sustainable development, because it has a cross-cutting effect on improving results in other poverty sectors and enhances the productivity of the labor force in the informal and agriculture/livestock sectors, which form the backbone of national production, whereas the modern sector provides a mere 5 percent of jobs on the labor market.

The recent assessment of performance in the Chadian educational system shows that, as far as the quality of teaching is concerned, the country is lagging far behind other developing countries, in that the continued attendance rate in primary schools is no higher than 38 percent, compared with an average of 64 percent for all of Africa.

The Poverty Reduction Strategy incorporates the objectives of the above-mentioned educational reform and is aimed at achieving a CP1 admission rate of 90 percent for boys and 75 percent for girls in 2005–2006 (reducing the gap between girls and boys by 15 points each year); another of its aims is a continued attendance rate of 63 percent in the primary cycle.

In pursuit of these objectives, the government adopted the following measures (see 2002 Sectoral Policy Letter):

  • a) The share of GDP allocated to education must be increased and reach at least 4 percent in 2015;

  • b) Nonwage expenditure in the operating budget for education must be increased by at least 20 percent per year until 2015;

  • c) At least 50 percent of the education budget must be allocated to basic education;

  • d) Reforms are needed to redefine priorities, reallocate budgets, and divide the responsibilities for education among the state, communities, and local authorities, in a decentralized management framework in which schools have greater autonomy.

5.1.2. Progress in education

The Chadian educational system, as in the other countries of the Sahel, experienced strong growth in enrollment demand, with a 9.6 percent rate of increase in primary school pupils between 1995 and 2000, and 7.6 percent between 2000 and 2004. The system is characterized by strong community participation in school development; consequently, the 2003-2004 statistics point to 29 percent of students enrolled in community schools and 64 percent in public schools, where the majority of teachers are paid by the communities (in some cases all the teachers are paid by the community). The proportion of teachers paid by the communities was higher than 60 percent in 2003-2004.

In 2003–2004, the rate of CP1 admission was 107 percent overall (of which 123% for boys and 91.4 percent for girls), which is a 15 percent increase for boys and 14 percent for girls compared with the 2002-2003 school year. The objective of the NPRS in this area—an admission rate of 90 percent for boys and 75 percent for girls—has already been surpassed by a large margin. The gender parity point on the index moved from 1.5 percent in 1990–2000 to 1.35 percent in 2003–2004, which reflects a clear improvement in establishing equitable access for girls to primary school.

Nevertheless, these positive rates conceal major regional differences, as shown in the chart below:

It also bears noting that the gross enrollment rate rose from 72 percent in 1999–2000, to 87.58 percent in 2003–2004, which is a far higher rate than the average for the 15 French-speaking African countries (80.4 percent), or an average increase of 22 percent over the past five years. In theory, this means that the universal enrollment rate will be achieved in 2010, not counting repeaters. The main problem is that of drop-outs during the cycle. In Chad, of a cohort of 100 children enrolled in CP1, only 38 percent reach CM2. The situation is even more grave, considering the geographic disparities revealed in 2.2 below:

Since implementation of the NPRS, the government maintained education as one of what are known as its priority sectors, even though the tax effort (8.2 percent of GDP in 2004) is still insufficient to enable the sector to promote the human resources essential for sustainable economic development. The table and chart below show the trend of the tax effort, which has been increasing from year to year, despite the pressure from burgeoning needs in the sector.

An analysis of changes in the share of national wealth allocated to education shows that the government considers it as being relatively stable—about 2.8 percent of GDP—since implementation of the NPRS. Total expenditure on education accounts for an average of 13 percent of overall government expenditure (non-debt), with an average growth rate of 23 percent per annum over the past five years. Expenditure on basic education increased 8 percent on average over the period and represents more than half of expenditure on education at current values.

An international comparison of fiscal policies on education shows that the resources spent by Chad on education are markedly lower than the average for other countries with comparable incomes, as shown in the chart below:

Over the past two years, work on improving this sector was affected by extremely low execution rates, especially in 2004. This difficulty is essentially linked to the slowness of procurement procedures and delays in establishing the budget. Implementation of the new government procurement code should make for clear improvements in the execution of the budget.

5.1.3 Educational policy assessment

At a time when the entire international community has pledged to ensure that all children are given enough education to enable them to escape poverty, the Chadian educational system needs to tackle several challenges before it can seize the opportunities afforded at this juncture, and on which the hopes for future generations hinge:

  • The challenge of building a national consensus around Chadian education as it relates to the Millennium Development Goals;

  • The challenge of gathering national momentum in mobilizing national resources to make the educational system more credible;

  • The challenge of effective and efficient management of the system to streamline the use of resources;

  • The challenge of having an effective and reliable data system to facilitate the generation of relevant political analyses and improve the monitoring of the policies and programs implemented;

  • The challenge of decentralizing educational objectives and resources through performance contracts linking decentralized units to performance obligations; and lastly,

  • The challenge of the reporting requirement (accountability).

The main actions to be undertaken are as follows:

  • Adopt the framework law for the Chadian educational system;

  • Harmonize the different educational development strategies;

  • Strengthen the statistical information system and the school map and lay the groundwork for the statistical data production system;

  • Develop and implement a plan to build planning and management capacity in the decentralized units of the MEN;

  • Strengthen computerized monitoring of teaching staff;

  • Set up a computerized system to manage materials and supplies;

  • Revise the education component of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy;

  • Organize a positioning conference of technical and financial partners;

  • Launch the Chadian education advocacy process;

  • Organize an education forum to build a national consensus on Chadian education.

5.2. Establish an effective healthcare system

5.2.1. The National Health Policy

The National Health Policy adopted by the government is based on 12 strategic pillars:

This policy is implemented through sectoral health projects, the most recent of which was the Health Sector Support Project supported by the World Bank.

5.2.2. The Health Sector in the NPRS

With a view to establishing an effective healthcare system, the NPRS defined the following objectives:

  • i) Provide access to high quality health services throughout the entire country;

  • ii) Improve health sector indicators;

  • iii) Improve the use of resources allocated to health;

  • iv) Combat HIV/AIDS;

  • v) Combat malaria;

  • vi) Combat malnutrition.

In order to achieve these objectives, the following actions were to have been executed during the first phase of the NPRS from 2003 to 2006:

  • Build/and or rehabilitate 50 health centers, 5 district hospitals, and 15 district offices; provide them with the necessary equipment for their operation;

  • Train health officers as well as the members of the Health and Health Unit Management Committees to improve community participation and enlist committees as partners in managing health services;

  • Give more autonomy to 10 district or departmental hospitals;

  • Encourage the creation of health mutual associations among less advantaged population groups;

  • Strengthen the protection of children and pregnant women, combat preventable diseases (by immunization) and malnutrition;

  • Strengthen the surveillance and early-warning system for endemic diseases (polio, neonatal tetanus, measles) and potentially endemic diseases (cholera, meningitis, tuberculosis);

  • Provide 600 health centers with equipment for monitoring pregnancies and childbirth;

  • Offer postnatal consultation in all health centers and all maternity clinics;

  • Equip 25 district hospitals or prefectural hospitals for obstetric emergencies;

  • Assign one surgeon, one anesthetist, and one midwife per district or prefectural hospital;

  • Introduce programs for spacing births at 600 health centers and 25 hospitals;

  • Build the capacities of management bodies in 43 health districts;

  • Prepare a three-year action plan to develop the health districts;

  • Provide supervision and monitoring of 43 health districts;

  • Continue and broaden programs for early detection, (particularly among those aged 15 to 49, pregnant women, and seropositive women), and treatment;

  • Continue and broaden prevention and treatment programs;

  • Continue and expand programs to provide micronutrient supplements, encourage breastfeeding, and promote healthy foods.

5.2.3. Implementation status

The main results obtained within the framework of the NPRS as of end-2005 are as follows:

  • 52 health centers, 6 district hospitals, and 4 district offices were built in 2005;

  • 569 health centers received training in community participation;

  • 6 mutual associations were created as of end-2005;

  • The DTC 3 rate was 47.5 percent in 2005;

  • 900 public awareness meetings were held in the 18 regions of the country;

  • 3,000 posters on the immunization schedule were made;

  • 433 health centers were equipped with pregnancy monitoring equipment;

  • Postnatal consultation is offered in 98 percent of health centers and districts;

  • 32 of 45 hospitals are equipped to handle obstetric emergencies;

  • 42 of 45 district hospitals are staffed by qualified personnel;

  • The contraceptive prevalence rate was 2.5 percent in 2005;

  • 37 of 43 management bodies have been formed;

  • An action plan was prepared and is now available;

  • 42 of 43 districts are regularly monitored;

  • 14 of 18 hospitals are now dispensing ARVs and 52 voluntary testing centers are now in operation;

  • 3,125,000 condoms were sold in 2005;

  • 168 public awareness campaigns were conducted;

  • Mosquito net use in 2005 was 7 percent;

  • All operational health units offer malaria treatment;

  • Iodized salt use is 77 percent;

  • 16 breastfeeding outreach campaigns were conducted.

It also bears noting that the share of health in total public expenditure rose from 4.8 percent of the total in 2001–2002, to 8.6 percent in 2003 and 9.7 percent in 2004. Nevertheless, this percentage is expected to be reduced in the 2005 budget (only 7.8 percent of appropriations).

5.2.4 Results obtained

The results of the implementation of the sectoral health strategy are satisfactory, despite the difficulties encountered by the technical staff of the Ministry of Health. The indicators below indicate the results obtained in achieving the objectives of the NPRS.

article image

5.2.5. Problems encountered

Implementation of the NPRS in the health sector has been complicated by two sorts of problems:

  • The first problem is the lack of qualified staff (healthcare personnel and managers). This is shown in the chart below. As shown in the results of the macro participation of October-December 2001, the population is aware of the problem, which is considered one of the determinants of poverty. Progress in this area is slow, despite measures taken in budget laws to establish a recruitment quota for health personnel in the civil service. This understaffing is particularly acute in the outlying centers; one of the factors is the delay in the payment of the salaries of personnel on assignment in the provinces, compared with their colleagues in the capital.

A01ufig06

Chart: Population per healthcare provider and human development index (HDI) per region

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 282; 10.5089/9781451836479.002.A001

Source: RDP Santé

VI. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NPRS – IMPROVING THE LIVING CONDITIONS OF VULNERABLE GROUPS

The government launched a study on social protection, which will be used as the basis for defining a strategy and operational programs to benefit vulnerable groups. This is a two-dimensional issue:

  • The first task is to ensure that sectoral strategies and programs are better targeted to meet the needs of the poorest segments of the population.

  • The second task is to organize more specific actions to benefit the disabled, orphans, and the urban unemployed, as well as women, who play a critical role not only in the economy, but also in family health and childhood education.

Regarding the first initiative, additional efforts should be made to improve economic performance and social services to benefit the poorest. Recent GDP growth barely affected the rural sector, in which a large part of the poorest segments of the population live and work. Poor families shoulder a relatively heavy burden in terms of the cost of primary education, and the most vulnerable regions are those where the lack of qualified personnel seriously compromises the availability and quality of health services.

In terms of initiatives to benefit the disabled, orphans, and the urban unemployed, it is primarily NGOs, particularly those that are well-established at the local level, that are best able to manage programs targeting the specific problems experienced by these segments of society. Nevertheless, a public sector-NGO partnership could make it easier to define and implement coherent strategies that would serve as frameworks for NGO action.

Regarding women’s issues, huge steps have been taken to better integrate women into national economic and social activities. In particular, school enrollment for girls has increased and efforts have been made to improve maternal and child health. The measures planned to develop microfinance could have a significant impact on the economic activity and lives of women. The adoption of the new Family and Individual Persons Code could also play a key role in improving the lives of women.

VII. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NPRS – ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

Poverty reduction also involves protecting ecosystems and the environment. In a country such as Chad, protecting natural resources—forests, grasslands, water resources, and arable land—is essential for the continuance of core economic activities and for meeting the priority needs of families.

Long-standing legal and regulatory provisions protect the forests and biodiversity, but these laws are little respected. The population places enormous pressure on forested areas (firewood and encroaching farmland) and it is very difficult to prevent poaching, overlogging, and uncontrolled brush fires.

The energy problem is central to environmental protection policies. Wood fuels (wood and charcoal) provide 90 percent of the energy consumed in Chad. Gas consumption is on the rise, growing from 69 metric tons in 1999 to 367 metric tons in 2004, but only a small percentage of the population uses this type of energy. Fewer than 11,000 households are equipped with gas heaters, and 90 percent of those households are located in N’Djamena.

The measures taken to better organize migratory herds should have positive environmental effects, in terms of both protecting crops and better organizing the movement of livestock during the dry season.

Restoring and safeguarding the ecosystem

Natural resources in general and forestry resources in particular remain fragile and have suffered severe degradation under the combined effects of major cyclical droughts and the direct or indirect harmful actions of man (large-scale clearing of land, late and repeated brush fires, overgrazing, overlogging, and so on).

Protected forests, game reserves, national parks, no-logging areas, and forest plantations have undergone considerable destruction because of itinerant farmers, intensive poaching, overlogging, brush fires, village settlements, roads, and the like.

It is still not clear how much area is covered by natural forests or has been replanted in Chad, for lack of a complete forest inventory. The overall area of natural forests is estimated at 23.5 million hectares and is distributed as follows:

article image

In addition to these natural forests, there are 15,000 hectares of reforested land spread across the country; there are also 41,400 hectares of national parks and 11,080,000 hectares of game reserves.

There are significant ground and underground water resources spread throughout the entire country in the form of rivers, lakes, ponds, and flood plains. However, these resources are constantly being degraded.

As for plants, the plant inventories are now outdated. Vegetation maps have been drawn up, with an emphasis on grazing potential. There are about 84 million hectares of natural pastureland, most of which are not subject to rationalized exploitation.

Given the severe degradation of natural resources, Chad is now obliged to take legal and regulatory measures to restore and protect its ecosystems and environment. Specifically, it will implement Law 14/PR/98, the aim of which is to hold individuals responsible, individually or as part of traditional institutions or associations. This law defines the general principles of environmental protection.

  • Environmental education;

  • Protection of human settlements;

  • Protection of the country’s natural heritage and environment;

  • Pollutants and environmental nuisances;

  • Environmental assessment and emergency plans; and

  • Environmental management instruments.

Restoring and safeguarding ecosystems also requires implementation of the programs, agreements, and treaties signed and ratified by Chad. The government needs to allocate the resources necessary for these purposes, notably the project for water transfer from the Ubangui River into Lake Chad.

An environmental impact study must be required for each project, whether public or private, that is likely to have an impact on the natural, socioeconomic, or human environment.

VIII. OUTLOOK AND RECOMMENDATIONS

8.1 Provisional Assessment of Economic Policies and Implementation of the NPRS

Overall, the assessment is positive, but much remains to be done to win the battle of poverty reduction and effect a radical change in the lives of the poor through rapid expansion of the primary sector and other economic activities of interest to the poor, as well as through developing high quality social services.

The greatest success, obviously, is the development of the oil industry and its impact on growth. In order to achieve this, Chad—with the support of its partners—had to create conditions conducive to this project, which, ten years before, seemed highly unlikely, given the huge cost of the infrastructure necessary for this investment. Chad now has good reason to hope that this initial investment will be followed by many more, inasmuch as the exploration underway confirms the existence of substantial reserves and the government has been keeping its commitments and is pursuing efforts to improve the business climate. Admittedly, recent cash flow crises show that the expansion in oil production is not a panacea. Today, as before, prudent revenue forecasts, careful management of public expenditure, and the financial support of the international community are still critical to a sustainable improvement in the fiscal situation. The fact remains, nevertheless, that even within the framework of careful financial management, Chad will have additional resources that it will be able to allocate on a priority basis to the economic and social development of the country and to poverty reduction.

Oil has enabled Chad to experience two-digit growth, which is unprecedented. Even though a significant share of this growth finances the payment of dividends on foreign capital, a large share remains in the country and stimulates non-petroleum activities that benefit the players in Chad’s economy. The biggest disappointment has been that this growth has not yet succeeded in stimulating production and incomes among farmers, stockbreeders, and families living in rural areas, who account for 80 percent of the Chadian population and certainly an even larger share of the poorest segments of the population. Unavoidable external shocks—insufficient rainfall and locust plagues—are the main factors explaining the recent stagnation of the rural economy. Nonetheless, expansion, diversification, consolidation, and modernization of the rural economy are the main challenges facing Chad. The development of this sector will for a long time be one of the highest poverty reduction priorities.

The report showed how the development of the primary sector and sustainable growth of the economy also required a massive and constant effort on the part of the government and its partners to open up the country, reduce transport costs, implement an infrastructure program (access to water, energy, and telecommunications) focused on the economic and social development priorities for the country as a whole and on poverty reduction. Significant efforts have been made in this area. However, the effectiveness of the infrastructure program also depends on the quality of the maintenance work, elimination of bottlenecks in the free circulation of goods and persons, and, in a more general way, effective economic and financial management of the sectors in question.

The social sectors—especially education and health—are also critical to the sustainable development of Chad’s economy. Unlike the situation in several other very poor countries, demand for education is heavy and the government has made human resource development a major priority. Spectacular results were obtained in this area, which reflect the progress made in improving the main sectoral indicators (mainly very high enrollment rates for boys as well as a clear improvement in the enrollment of girls). Progress made in these areas is even more important because they are also a condition for the success of many other priority activities, notably health, family planning, and nutrition. Nonetheless, even in this sector, the results obtained will remain partial and unreliable as long as the development of basic education is not further geared toward an improvement in quality.

Significant efforts have also been made to improve healthcare access indicators. However, the construction of hospitals and health centers will not yield tangible results unless there is an improvement in infrastructure management, unless there is an increase in utilization, and unless cost recovery methods are mindful first and foremost of the poorest of the poor. As in most countries of the region, effective economic and social management of health services is a formidable task, which will require the government and its partners to redouble their efforts.

Consultations with the public conducted as part of the preparation of the NPRS pointed to the importance that Chadians—especially the poor—attach to governance. Even in this area, considerable progress has been made. Deficits have been reduced and public expenditure was restructured to help the priority sectors. In this area, some of the quantitative objectives of the NPRS (share of public expenditure allocated to individual sectors) were not all met. Yet, the most important thing is not the mechanical implementation of sometimes unrealistic objectives, but the fact that the policies and outcomes are moving in the right direction and prompt hopes of lasting improvement in the economic and social situation within the framework of a very long term view of development.

Nevertheless, governance is not only about restructuring public expenditure, it is also about transparency in financial management, the effectiveness of government agencies, judicial reform, the security of people and property, and the redefinition of the role and resources of the military. In all these areas, constructive debates have been organized and worthwhile strategies have been defined. The challenge for the future is to implement them effectively.

8.2 Recommendations

Preparation of the second follow-up report to the NPRS comes slightly ahead of a more ambitious exercise, that of a revision of the Strategy. This revision will be based on a participatory process that will make it possible to better appreciate how development stakeholders, civil society, and concerned communities perceive the efforts already made to reduce poverty and establish effective and high quality public services. Already, some of the new approaches that will have to be adopted in the second NPRS to meet the challenges of economic and social development and poverty reduction are becoming clear.

The main shortcomings of the first NPRS can be summarized as follows:

  • a) Despite the intensity of the initial consultations, the messages of the NPRS have not yet been fully integrated into the daily management of national institutions. The NPRS presents an integrated, crosscutting vision of economic, social, and financial policies. However, regardless of how effective the monitoring systems may be, the objectives of the NPRS will never be truly operational until the sectoral ministries and development stakeholders fully incorporate the objectives of the strategy into their sectoral and institutional priorities and their budgets.

  • b) The twofold problem is that not only must the sectors and institutions internalize the objectives of the NPRS, the NPRS must also be enriched and made operational and the overall objectives of the strategy must be parlayed into specific institutional and sectoral programs based on the national policies approved by all the departments involved and on realistic performance indicators.

  • c) Lastly, it is essential that the international community continue to play an active part in implementing the sectoral strategies underpinning the NPRS and recognize that although Chad may be an oil-rich country, it is still a poor country with limited resources that needs major external assistance to finance its development.

  • d) Specific activities, such as protecting vulnerable groups, are unlikely to be accomplished by the public sector. In this area, nongovernmental organizations—firmly established at the grassroots level—are often better placed than the official administrations to deliver services on an ad-hoc basis, considering the actual circumstances of the individuals in the direst need. Social protection strategies defined with the assistance of civil society would facilitate establishment of a partnership between official departments, local government authorities, and nongovernmental organizations.

Considerable progress has been made in several of these areas.

  • a) The report notes the efforts made by most sectoral ministries to define and update increasingly specific sectoral strategies and gradually build poverty reduction into their priorities. Nevertheless, this critical task has not yet been completed.

  • b) In fact, operationalization of the NPRS will not be fully completed until sectoral strategies that build in poverty reduction objectives become the main tools for fiscal decisions. Most ministries have been preparing program budgets, but the budgets that are approved and adopted are but a poor reflection of the priorities in the program budgets. In this regard, the identification and classification of poverty-reducing expenditures may prove to be an important tool for ensuring that the strategy and the budget are consistent.

  • c) Lastly, it is important to continue and intensify the dialogue between the government and the international community to better coordinate national programs and development aid. The first follow-up report recommended holding a roundtable meeting of donors and creditors around the themes of the NPRS. This recommendation remains valid and is worth retaining.

Throughout the validation workshop, which took place December 19–20, 2005, the following recommendations were voiced by the participants:

  • a) Establish a strategy for monitoring the standards of imported seeds and food of suspect quality, given the widespread existence of genetically modified foods and crops (GM);

  • b) Boost production of gum arabic, which accounts for a large share of national production;

  • c) Allow certain ministries such as mines and geology, tourism, and housing to play a leading role in the PRSP2;

  • d) Ensure that good governance measures are effectively applied;

  • e) Combat widespread impunity, especially corruption, and strengthen the judiciary;

  • f) Establish a Ministry in Charge of Government Oversight and Ethics as a State Ministry and provide it with the appropriate resources to discharge its mandate;

  • g) Combat desertification and protect the environment by effectively implementing the provisions governing the protection of plants and wildlife;

  • h) Make domestic gas available at a reduced cost, so as to curb the use of wood charcoal by urban households.

8.3 Timing of the revision of the NPRS

It is therefore important to undertake the preparatory work for the revision of the NPRS under the best possible conditions. Granted, it is not a question of modifying fundamentally the orientations of the strategies but to fine-tune certain objectives and operationalize them. An agreement must therefore be struck between the government and its partners on the timing of this revision. The schedule must therefore be realistic. For these reasons:

  • a) It is important that for purposes of the revision of the strategy, the analysis of the final results of ECOSIT 2 on poverty profiles, data on household situations, and the incidence of poverty by region be available. These data are essential to better target the actions proposed.

  • b) It will be necessary to undertake a systematic re-reading of the sectoral strategies and assess both their effectiveness and their consistency with the objectives of the national strategy. It is the integration of these strategies that will enable us to provide a more accurate operational content in the second version of the NPRS.

  • c) It will be necessary to undertake a study on the sources of growth and their impact on poverty.

Revision of the NPRS will therefore be a relatively intensive activity, which is likely to last all of 2006.

ANNEXES

Annex 1: Table of pro-poor expenditure in Chad

article image
article image
article image