Abstract
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that following an extended boom led by strong domestic demand, the slowdown in the United States has largely reflected a drag from residential investment as the housing market has weakened substantially. Unexpected weakness in business investment and net exports, as well as an inventory correction, amplified the downturn in early 2007, but growth is expected to recover in the remainder of the year. The most likely scenario is a soft landing of the U.S. economy, with growth picking up during 2007.
Annex I. United States: Fund Relations
(As of April 30, 2007)
I. Membership Status: Joined 12/27/45; Article VIII
II. General Resources Account:
| SDR Million | Percent Quota | |
|---|---|---|
| Quota | 37,149.30 | 100.0 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 34,161.26 | 92.0 |
| Reserve position in Fund | 2,987.48 | 8.0 |
| SDR Million | Percent Quota | |
|---|---|---|
| Quota | 37,149.30 | 100.0 |
| Fund holdings of currency | 34,161.26 | 92.0 |
| Reserve position in Fund | 2,987.48 | 8.0 |
III. SDR Department:
| SDR Million | Percent Allocation | |
|---|---|---|
| Net cumulative allocation | 4,899.53 | 100.0 |
| Holdings | 5,924.53 | 120.9 |
| SDR Million | Percent Allocation | |
|---|---|---|
| Net cumulative allocation | 4,899.53 | 100.0 |
| Holdings | 5,924.53 | 120.9 |
IV. Outstanding purchases and Loans: None
V. Financial Arrangements: None
VI. Projected Obligations to Fund: None
VII. Exchange Rate Arrangements: The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar floats independently and is determined freely in the foreign exchange market.
VIII. Payments Restrictions: The United States maintains restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions to the Balkans, Belarus, Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Liberia, Myanmar, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, and Zimbabwe and has notified the Fund of these restrictions under Decision No. 144-(52/51). The United States restricts the sale of arms and petroleum to the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) and to the territory of Angola and has prohibitions against transactions with international narcotics traffickers. The United States notified the Fund under Decision No. 144-(52/51) on August 2, 1995 of the imposition of further restrictions on current transactions with Islamic Republic of Iran. On March 21, 2002, the United States notified the Fund of exchange restrictions related to the financing of terrorism. The United States has lifted restrictions previously imposed with respect to Libya. The United States notified the Fund under the Framework of Decision 144 of the imposition of two additional exchange restrictions solely for the preservation of national and international security in March 2007 (EBD/07/34, 3/19/07): (i) the blocking of property of and prohibiting transactions with the Government of Sudan and prohibiting transactions with the petroleum and petrochemical industries in Sudan and (ii) the blocking of property of certain persons contributing to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
IX. Article IV Consultation. The 2006 Article IV consultation was concluded in July 2006 and the Staff Report was published as IMF Country Report 06/279. A fiscal ROSC was completed in the context of the 2003 consultation.
The 2007 Article IV discussions were conducted from April 23-May 8. Concluding meetings with Chairman Bernanke of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Treasury Secretary Paulson occurred on May 29 and June 15. A press conference on the consultation was held on June 22. The team comprised R. Teja (Head), T. Bayoumi, T. Helbling, R. Balakrishnan, F. Gonçalves, V. Klyuev, K. Krajnyák, and K. Mathai (all WHD); P. Mills and A. Bhatia (MCM); and J.J. Hallaert (PDR). Mmes. Lundsager (Executive Director) and Pollard (Advisor) attended some of the meetings. Outreach included discussions with the private sector and think tanks. The authorities have agreed to the publication of the staff report.
Annex II. Statistical Issues
Statistical Issues: Comprehensive economic data are available for the United States on a timely basis. The quality, coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of U.S. economic data are adequate for surveillance. Coverage of international capital flows in external sector statistics is being improved, with the June 2007 releases of BOP and IIP data on financial derivatives. The United States has subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and its metadata are posted on the Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB).
United States: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of June 15, 2007)
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D), Weekly (W), Biweekly (B), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); NA: Not Available.
United States: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of June 15, 2007)
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of data6 | Frequency of reporting6 | Frequency of publication6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange rates | same day | same day | D | D | D |
| International reserve assets and reserve liabilities of the monetary authorities1 | Jun. 18 | Jun. 11 | W | W | W |
| Reserve/base money | May 23 | Jun. 7 | B | W | W |
| Broad money | May 28 | Jun. 7 | W | W | W |
| Central bank balance sheet | Jun.12 | Q | Q | Q | |
| Interest rates2 | Same day | Same day | D | D | D |
| Consumer price index | Apr. 2007 | May 15 | M | M | M |
| Revenue, expenditure, balance and composition of financing3 - general government4 | 2007 Q1 | Jun. 7 | Q | Q | Q |
| Revenue, expenditure, balance and composition of financing3 - central government | Apr. 2007 | May 10 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of central government and central government-guaranteed debt | Apr. 2007 | May 10 | M | M | M |
| External current account balance | 2006 Q4 | Mar. 14 | Q | Q | Q |
| Exports and imports of goods and services | Apr. 2007 | Jun. 8 | M | M | M |
| GDP/GNP | 2007 Q1 | May 31 | Q | Q | Q |
| Gross External Debt5 | 2007 Q1 | Jun. 7 | Q | Q | Q |
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D), Weekly (W), Biweekly (B), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); NA: Not Available.
United States: Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance
(As of June 15, 2007)
| Date of latest observation | Date received | Frequency of data6 | Frequency of reporting6 | Frequency of publication6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange rates | same day | same day | D | D | D |
| International reserve assets and reserve liabilities of the monetary authorities1 | Jun. 18 | Jun. 11 | W | W | W |
| Reserve/base money | May 23 | Jun. 7 | B | W | W |
| Broad money | May 28 | Jun. 7 | W | W | W |
| Central bank balance sheet | Jun.12 | Q | Q | Q | |
| Interest rates2 | Same day | Same day | D | D | D |
| Consumer price index | Apr. 2007 | May 15 | M | M | M |
| Revenue, expenditure, balance and composition of financing3 - general government4 | 2007 Q1 | Jun. 7 | Q | Q | Q |
| Revenue, expenditure, balance and composition of financing3 - central government | Apr. 2007 | May 10 | M | M | M |
| Stocks of central government and central government-guaranteed debt | Apr. 2007 | May 10 | M | M | M |
| External current account balance | 2006 Q4 | Mar. 14 | Q | Q | Q |
| Exports and imports of goods and services | Apr. 2007 | Jun. 8 | M | M | M |
| GDP/GNP | 2007 Q1 | May 31 | Q | Q | Q |
| Gross External Debt5 | 2007 Q1 | Jun. 7 | Q | Q | Q |
Includes reserve assets pledged or otherwise encumbered as well as net derivative positions.
Both market-based and officially-determined, including discount rates, money market rates, rates on treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Foreign, domestic bank, and domestic nonbank financing.
The general government consists of the central government (budgetary funds, extra budgetary funds, and social security funds) and state and local governments.
Including currency and maturity composition.
Daily (D), Weekly (W), Biweekly (B), Monthly (M), Quarterly (Q), Annually (A); NA: Not Available.