Abstract
Bolivia’s 2007 Article IV Consultation reports that reforms are needed to make the budget a more effective developmental and poverty-reducing tool. The fiscal position has shifted into a substantial surplus, and public debt has been substantially reduced. Financial sector stability has improved, although dollarization is still high. Efforts to address remaining financial sector vulnerabilities should be intensified. Priority areas of reform include the adoption of prudential regulations to mitigate market risk and credit risks from dollarization; and of legislation governing corporate bankruptcy/restructuring.
The sustainability of Bolivia’s public debt has improved substantially as a result of the MDRI—which has granted stock debt relief equivalent to about 25 percent of the GDP—and the shift into an overall fiscal surplus since 2006. Debt ratios are currently at very manageable levels, with ample margins with respect to risk thresholds, and may be expected to decline further over the long run under baseline policies. Given that the remaining stocks of both domestic and foreign debt are of long maturities, debt service is also projected to remain low. The declining path of the debt ratio displays an inflexion under standard stress tests and an alternative scenario of lower oil prices, but would still remain within sustainable bounds in the long run.
1. Bolivia’s public debt (external and domestic) decreased significantly since the last Article IV consultation thanks to lower fiscal financing needs and the delivery of the latest installment of the MDRI by the Inter American Development Bank (IADB) for US$ 1.2 billion. The outlook for the nominal public debt-to-GDP ratio—currently at the 35 percent level, down from 70 percent in 2005—is very favorable as it is projected to decline gradually to 16 percent during the DSA’s projection period. Similarly the NPV of debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach levels below 15 percent, compared to 33 percent at present. Moreover, with the accumulation of deposits of the public sector in the financial system—amounting to about 17 percent of GDP at present—the solvency of the public sector measured by the net public debt (i.e., gross debt minus those deposits) has improved even more significantly and could reach very low levels during the projection period.
2. The relief granted by the MDRI has reduced significantly Bolivia’s public external debt. The relief, amounting to US$2.9 billion, is equivalent to almost 25 percent of the GDP and has cut by more than half the public external debt to about US$2.1 billion at present (19 percent of the 2006 GDP) since end-2005. The importance of multilateral debt in the public external debt has also decreased from 90 percent to about 80 percent of total, with Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) remaining as the main creditor with 37 percent of total external debt. The rest of the external debt comes mainly from official sources on noncommercial terms, which limits significantly the rollover risk and makes external debt service very manageable, in particular in light of the strong export earnings from hydrocarbons and mining.
Main Assumptions
The main assumptions of the baseline scenario for the period 2007–27 are:
Average annual real GDP growth: 5 percent until 2012, on account of agriculture recovery, and mining and hydrocarbons expected project implementation, and 4 percent during 2013–27.
Average inflation: 5 percent per year, in line with recent history and medium term expectations.
Export growth: 8 percent until 2012 due to expected developments in the natural gas sector (notably, as specified below, increase in exports to Argentina), and 4½ percent afterwards.
Import growth: 10 percent in the 2007–12 period as some of the expected investment projects have a significant imported content. Average of 4 percent per year in the long term.
Natural gas price: contract prices until 2012 moving consistently with WEO projections, and for the period 2013–27 constant in real terms at US$5 dollars per thousand cubic feet.
Natural gas volumes: growing within current capacity levels until 2010 (average of 35 million of cubic meters per day), increasing early in the next decade to reflect expected additional natural gas exports to Argentina, up to 60 million of cubic meters per day, stable after 2013.
FDI: in line with expected investments for the hydrocarbons and mining sectors.
The profile of the average concessionality of the public sector borrowing is projected to evolve in line with the existing official loans in the pipeline. Over the longer run, concessionality is expected to decrease gradually.
The evolution of domestic public debt is consistent with the path for the overall fiscal balance and available domestic financing.
3. Given Bolivia’s overall macroeconomic outlook, its external debt is expected to remain sustainable throughout the projection period. In the 20-year projections, the fiscal position shifts from overall surpluses between 1 and 2 percent of GDP in the period 2007–12 to small surpluses of about 0.5 percent of GDP in the outer years of the projection—reflecting among other things declining hydrocarbons-based revenues in relation to GDP. Nevertheless, the overall performance under baseline assumptions yields very manageable indebtedness and debt service levels. Thus, the stock of total public and private external debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall to about 24 percent by 2012 and stabilize at the range of 15 percent by 2027. At the same time, while the composition of public external debt is expected to gradually shift into less concessional sources over time, the NPV of debt-to-GDP ratio would reach single digits by 2027.2 Consequently, Bolivia’s risk of debt distress is low.3 This outcome holds even under significant stress tests.
4. The standard stress testing shows that Bolivia’s favorable external debt situation is fairly resilient to severe exogenous shocks (Table 2). The NPV of debt-to-GDP ratio deteriorates most under the simulation based on historical averages. Since such averages reflect the crisis period of 2002–03 (when the primary fiscal deficit reached over 6 percent of the GDP) and incorporate only partially the recent development of natural gas exports, the simulated debt ratio approaches the LIC DSA thresholds by the end of the projection period. All stress tests also lead to higher but stabilizing ratios, below levels considered risky. Flow indicators also remain manageable under most of the stress tests, except under the historical trends simulation, which results in a return to still sustainable but very high debt levels.4
Bolivia: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2004-27 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Derived as [r - g - r(1+g)]/(1+g+r+gr) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and r = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that NPV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the NPV of new debt).
Bolivia: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2004-27 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Projections | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Historical | Standard | Avg. | Avg. | |||||||||||||||
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Average 2/ | Deviation 2/ | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | Dec. 2007 | 2017 | 2027 | 2013-27 | |||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 67.9 | 64.7 | 40.2 | 29.4 | 27.7 | 26.3 | 24.9 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 19.7 | 13.0 | ||||||||
| Of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 57.3 | 52.3 | 28.9 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 18.2 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 15.0 | 10.6 | ||||||||
| Change in external debt | -7.1 | -3.2 | -24.5 | -10.8 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | -10.6 | -8.3 | -24.1 | -12.2 | -8.5 | -6.5 | -7.4 | -8.4 | -9.0 | -8.4 | -6.5 | ||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | -5.5 | -8.4 | -13.7 | -1.3 | 6.7 | -10.8 | -9.7 | -7.5 | -6.7 | -6.4 | -6.6 | -6.9 | -5.7 | -6.5 | |||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | -2.6 | -4.4 | -7.7 | -5.5 | -4.6 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.0 | ||||||||
| Exports | 29.1 | 34.7 | 38.2 | 36.1 | 35.7 | 32.5 | 32.7 | 33.5 | 35.1 | 32.1 | 26.3 | ||||||||
| Imports | 26.5 | 30.3 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 31.1 | 29.9 | 30.7 | 31.6 | 32.9 | 27.8 | 22.3 | ||||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | -5.6 | -6.2 | -7.3 | -5.3 | 1.0 | -5.9 | -5.6 | -5.2 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -2.7 | -1.7 | -2.5 | |||||
| Of which: official | -3.7 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -0.7 | 3.0 | -2.2 | -5.7 | 5.2 | -1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -1.0 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -1.0 | -1.6 | |||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 3/ | -4.5 | -2.8 | -8.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | ||||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | ||||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | -3.2 | -2.2 | -7.7 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||||||
| Residual (3-4) 4/ | 3.6 | 5.0 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | ||||||||
| Of which: exceptional financing | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| NPV of external debt 5/ | … | … | 32.3 | 25.9 | 24.4 | 23.2 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 18.0 | 12.1 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 84.5 | 71.7 | 68.4 | 71.5 | 67.5 | 64.4 | 60.9 | 56.0 | 46.0 | ||||||||
| NPV of PPG external debt | … | … | 21.0 | 16.0 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 9.7 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 54.9 | 44.2 | 43.6 | 46.8 | 45.1 | 43.9 | 42.3 | 41.4 | 36.7 | ||||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 63.0 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 50.6 | 48.5 | 47.6 | 47.4 | 44.8 | 37.1 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 18.9 | 16.5 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 5.9 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 14.9 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 17.8 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | ||||||||
| Total gross financing need (billions of U.S. dollars) | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -2.5 | ||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 1.6 | -5.2 | 10.8 | 0.0 | -8.0 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -5.8 | -6.5 | -6.2 | -5.2 | ||||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 4.5 | 3.3 | 13.4 | 1.6 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | -0.7 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 6/ | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | ||||
| Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 30.6 | 28.0 | 31.0 | 19.1 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 0.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.8 | ||||
| Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 13.8 | 22.9 | 19.9 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 | ||||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 | ||||
| Aid flows (in billions of US dollars) 7/ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: Grants | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||
| Of which: Concessional loans | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 35.6 | 37.0 | 39.0 | 39.7 | 40.1 | 41.1 | 44.1 | 38.9 | 45.6 | |||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of US dollars) | 8.8 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 14.4 | 15.9 | 17.4 | 18.6 | 19.5 | 27.0 | 52.1 | ||||||||
| (NPVt-NPVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Derived as [r - g - r(1+g)]/(1+g+r+gr) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and r = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that NPV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the NPV of new debt).
Bolivia: External Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2004-27 1/
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Projections | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Historical | Standard | Avg. | Avg. | |||||||||||||||
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Average 2/ | Deviation 2/ | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | Dec. 2007 | 2017 | 2027 | 2013-27 | |||||
| External debt (nominal) 1/ | 67.9 | 64.7 | 40.2 | 29.4 | 27.7 | 26.3 | 24.9 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 19.7 | 13.0 | ||||||||
| Of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) | 57.3 | 52.3 | 28.9 | 19.5 | 18.8 | 18.2 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 17.6 | 15.0 | 10.6 | ||||||||
| Change in external debt | -7.1 | -3.2 | -24.5 | -10.8 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Identified net debt-creating flows | -10.6 | -8.3 | -24.1 | -12.2 | -8.5 | -6.5 | -7.4 | -8.4 | -9.0 | -8.4 | -6.5 | ||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit | -5.5 | -8.4 | -13.7 | -1.3 | 6.7 | -10.8 | -9.7 | -7.5 | -6.7 | -6.4 | -6.6 | -6.9 | -5.7 | -6.5 | |||||
| Deficit in balance of goods and services | -2.6 | -4.4 | -7.7 | -5.5 | -4.6 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.0 | ||||||||
| Exports | 29.1 | 34.7 | 38.2 | 36.1 | 35.7 | 32.5 | 32.7 | 33.5 | 35.1 | 32.1 | 26.3 | ||||||||
| Imports | 26.5 | 30.3 | 30.6 | 30.6 | 31.1 | 29.9 | 30.7 | 31.6 | 32.9 | 27.8 | 22.3 | ||||||||
| Net current transfers (negative = inflow) | -5.6 | -6.2 | -7.3 | -5.3 | 1.0 | -5.9 | -5.6 | -5.2 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -4.4 | -2.7 | -1.7 | -2.5 | |||||
| Of which: official | -3.7 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Other current account flows (negative = net inflow) | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Net FDI (negative = inflow) | -0.7 | 3.0 | -2.2 | -5.7 | 5.2 | -1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -1.0 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -1.0 | -1.6 | |||||
| Endogenous debt dynamics 3/ | -4.5 | -2.8 | -8.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | ||||||||
| Contribution from nominal interest rate | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | ||||||||
| Contribution from real GDP growth | -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Contribution from price and exchange rate changes | -3.2 | -2.2 | -7.7 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | ||||||||
| Residual (3-4) 4/ | 3.6 | 5.0 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | ||||||||
| Of which: exceptional financing | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| NPV of external debt 5/ | … | … | 32.3 | 25.9 | 24.4 | 23.2 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 18.0 | 12.1 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 84.5 | 71.7 | 68.4 | 71.5 | 67.5 | 64.4 | 60.9 | 56.0 | 46.0 | ||||||||
| NPV of PPG external debt | … | … | 21.0 | 16.0 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 9.7 | ||||||||
| In percent of exports | … | … | 54.9 | 44.2 | 43.6 | 46.8 | 45.1 | 43.9 | 42.3 | 41.4 | 36.7 | ||||||||
| In percent of government revenues | … | … | 63.0 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 50.6 | 48.5 | 47.6 | 47.4 | 44.8 | 37.1 | ||||||||
| Debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 18.9 | 16.5 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 5.9 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-exports ratio (in percent) | 14.9 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ||||||||
| PPG debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | 17.8 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | ||||||||
| Total gross financing need (billions of U.S. dollars) | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -2.5 | ||||||||
| Non-interest current account deficit that stabilizes debt ratio | 1.6 | -5.2 | 10.8 | 0.0 | -8.0 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -5.8 | -6.5 | -6.2 | -5.2 | ||||||||
| Key macroeconomic assumptions | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||||
| GDP deflator in US dollar terms (change in percent) | 4.5 | 3.3 | 13.4 | 1.6 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | -0.7 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||||
| Effective interest rate (percent) 6/ | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | ||||
| Growth of exports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 30.6 | 28.0 | 31.0 | 19.1 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 0.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.8 | ||||
| Growth of imports of G&S (US dollar terms, in percent) | 13.8 | 22.9 | 19.9 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 | ||||
| Grant element of new public sector borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 | ||||
| Aid flows (in billions of US dollars) 7/ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||||||
| Of which: Grants | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||
| Of which: Concessional loans | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of GDP) 8/ | … | … | … | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | |||||||
| Grant-equivalent financing (in percent of external financing) 8/ | … | … | … | 35.6 | 37.0 | 39.0 | 39.7 | 40.1 | 41.1 | 44.1 | 38.9 | 45.6 | |||||||
| Memorandum items: | |||||||||||||||||||
| Nominal GDP (billions of US dollars) | 8.8 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 14.4 | 15.9 | 17.4 | 18.6 | 19.5 | 27.0 | 52.1 | ||||||||
| (NPVt-NPVt-1)/GDPt-1 (in percent) | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |||||||||
Includes both public and private sector external debt.
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
Derived as [r - g - r(1+g)]/(1+g+r+gr) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and r = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.
Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.
Assumes that NPV of private sector debt is equivalent to its face value.
Current-year interest payments divided by previous period debt stock.
Defined as grants, concessional loans, and debt relief.
Grant-equivalent financing includes grants provided directly to the government and through new borrowing (difference between the face value and the NPV of new debt).
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analyses for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2007-27
(In percent)
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analyses for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2007-27
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2017 | 2027 | |
| NPV of debt-to-GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2008-27 1/ | 16 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 38 | 30 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2008-27 2/ | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 15 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 16 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 12 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 10 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 16 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 11 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 16 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 13 |
| NPV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2007-26 1/ | 44 | 54 | 62 | 66 | 72 | 77 | 119 | 113 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2007-26 2/ | 44 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 58 | 58 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 44 | 45 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 35 | 33 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 44 | 48 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 50 | 47 | 38 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 44 | 47 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| NPV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 52 | 51 | 51 | 48 | 48 | 47 | 45 | 37 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2007-26 1/ | 52 | 63 | 67 | 71 | 78 | 86 | 129 | 115 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2007-26 2/ | 52 | 53 | 55 | 54 | 55 | 57 | 63 | 59 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 52 | 52 | 53 | 51 | 50 | 50 | 47 | 39 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 52 | 52 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 36 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 58 | 57 | 57 | 54 | 45 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 52 | 56 | 61 | 58 | 57 | 57 | 51 | 39 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 52 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 50 | 43 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 52 | 71 | 70 | 67 | 66 | 66 | 62 | 52 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2008-27 1/ | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2008-27 2/ | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2008-27 1/ | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 16 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2008-27 2/ | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analyses for Key Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 2007-27
(In percent)
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2017 | 2027 | |
| NPV of debt-to-GDP ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 16 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2008-27 1/ | 16 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 38 | 30 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2008-27 2/ | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 15 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 16 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 12 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 10 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 16 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 11 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 16 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 13 |
| NPV of debt-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2007-26 1/ | 44 | 54 | 62 | 66 | 72 | 77 | 119 | 113 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2007-26 2/ | 44 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 58 | 58 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 44 | 45 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 35 | 33 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 44 | 48 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 50 | 47 | 38 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 44 | 47 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 44 | 44 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 37 |
| NPV of debt-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 52 | 51 | 51 | 48 | 48 | 47 | 45 | 37 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2007-26 1/ | 52 | 63 | 67 | 71 | 78 | 86 | 129 | 115 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2007-26 2/ | 52 | 53 | 55 | 54 | 55 | 57 | 63 | 59 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 52 | 52 | 53 | 51 | 50 | 50 | 47 | 39 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 52 | 52 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 36 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 58 | 57 | 57 | 54 | 45 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 52 | 56 | 61 | 58 | 57 | 57 | 51 | 39 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 52 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 50 | 43 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 52 | 71 | 70 | 67 | 66 | 66 | 62 | 52 |
| Debt service-to-exports ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2008-27 1/ | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2008-27 2/ | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B4. Net non-debt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| A. Alternative Scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Key variables at their historical averages in 2008-27 1/ | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 16 |
| A2. New public sector loans on less favorable terms in 2008-27 2/ | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| B. Bound Tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B2. Export value growth at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 3/ | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| B3. US dollar GDP deflator at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| B4. Net nondebt creating flows at historical average minus one standard deviation in 2008-09 4/ | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| B5. Combination of B1-B4 using one-half standard deviation shocks | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| B6. One-time 30 percent nominal depreciation relative to the baseline in 2008 5/ | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Memorandum item: | ||||||||
| Grant element assumed on residual financing (i.e., financing required above baseline) 6/ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Variables include real GDP growth, growth of GDP deflator (in U.S. dollar terms), non-interest current account in percent of GDP, and non-debt creating flows.
Assumes that the interest rate on new borrowing is by 2 percentage points higher than in the baseline., while grace and maturity periods are the same as in the baseline.
Exports values are assumed to remain permanently at the lower level, but the current account as a share of GDP is assumed to return to its baseline level after the shock (implicitly assuming an offsetting adjustment in import levels).
Includes official and private transfers and FDI.
Depreciation is defined as percentage decline in dollar/local currency rate, such that it never exceeds 100 percent.
Applies to all stress scenarios except for A2 (less favorable financing) in which the terms on all new financing are as specified in footnote 2.
5. However, the outlook for public debt sustainability could be less favorable under a scenario of significantly lower energy prices. An alternative scenario based on lower oil prices (by 30 percent compared to baseline), starting in 2008, would show a deterioration in the fiscal position throughout most of the projection period. However, since public sector deposits now stand at 17 percent of GDP, the impact should be seen mostly in the path of net public debt, as the authorities could finance the fiscal deficits by drawing from those deposits up to a point, and only then resorting to new borrowing. Such alternative scenario would diverge from the baseline net public debt-to-GDP ratio by up to about 18 percent of GDP by 2027 (Figure 1). Similar effects could also be observed under a scenario of disruption in hydrocarbons production, or in case of a delayed implementation of the new natural gas production/pipeline projects to enable increased exports to Argentina.
Bolivia: Net Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt under the Low Oil Price Scenario, 2006-2027
(In percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Fund staff projections and simulations.Bolivia: Net Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt under the Low Oil Price Scenario, 2006-2027
(In percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Fund staff projections and simulations.Bolivia: Net Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt under the Low Oil Price Scenario, 2006-2027
(In percent)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Fund staff projections and simulations.
Bolivia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2007-2027
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Staff projections and simulations.Bolivia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2007-2027
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Staff projections and simulations.Bolivia: Indicators of Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2007-2027
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Staff projections and simulations.Bolivia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2007-2027
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Bolivia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2007-2027
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Projections | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Historical | Standard | Average | Average | ||||||||||||||
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Average 1/ | Deviation 1/ | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2007-12 | 2017 | 2027 | 2013-27 | ||||
| Public sector debt 2/ | 76.7 | 70.0 | 45.8 | 34.7 | 33.4 | 32.4 | 31.0 | 30.1 | 29.6 | 24.7 | 16.3 | |||||||
| Of which: foreign-currency denominated | 67.9 | 62.1 | 39.0 | 27.6 | 26.1 | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 20.5 | 14.5 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 2.6 | -6.7 | -24.2 | -11.1 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.7 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | -2.9 | -5.3 | -15.5 | -6.5 | -4.6 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.5 | -3.3 | -1.5 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | 2.6 | -0.8 | -7.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | -3.4 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.6 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.5 | -3.1 | -1.2 | -2.5 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 26.8 | 31.3 | 35.2 | 32.3 | 32.0 | 31.3 | 31.6 | 31.9 | 32.3 | 30.6 | 27.1 | |||||||
| Of which: grants | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 29.4 | 30.5 | 28.0 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.1 | 28.4 | 27.5 | 25.8 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | -4.3 | -3.5 | -8.3 | -3.1 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | -3.0 | -2.2 | -2.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | |||||||
| Of which: contribution from average real interest rate | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | |||||||
| Of which: contribution from real GDP growth | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -0.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | -1.3 | -1.3 | -5.4 | -2.7 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | -1.3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | -1.3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | 5.6 | -1.4 | -8.7 | -4.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | |||||||
| NPV of public sector debt | … | 44.8 | 40.2 | 33.9 | 32.5 | 31.3 | 29.9 | 28.9 | 28.2 | 22.5 | 14.1 | |||||||
| Of which: foreign-currency denominated | … | 36.9 | 33.4 | 26.8 | 25.2 | 23.9 | 22.7 | 22.2 | 21.9 | 18.4 | 12.3 | |||||||
| Of which: external | … | 22.3 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 9.7 | |||||||
| NPV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 3/ | 14.9 | 12.2 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |||||||
| NPV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | 143.1 | 114.1 | 104.9 | 101.5 | 100.2 | 94.7 | 90.8 | 87.4 | 73.6 | 52.2 | |||||||
| NPV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | 153.8 | 120.6 | 110.5 | 106.1 | 104.4 | 98.2 | 93.8 | 90.2 | 76.1 | 54.2 | |||||||
| Of which: external 4/ | … | 76.7 | 63.0 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 50.6 | 48.5 | 47.6 | 47.4 | 44.8 | 37.1 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 5/ | 35.1 | 31.8 | 20.0 | 17.5 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 15.9 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 7.7 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 5/ | 38.7 | 34.2 | 21.1 | 18.4 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 16.4 | 15.1 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 8.0 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 0.0 | 5.9 | 17.0 | 7.7 | -2.0 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -3.3 | -2.1 | -0.5 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 4.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic currency debt (in percent) | -4.2 | 5.1 | -2.2 | -3.1 | 4.4 | -2.5 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.2 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | -2.5 | -2.0 | -9.1 | 1.2 | 5.5 | -7.0 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 8.5 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | 4.5 | 8.6 | -4.0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | … | |||
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Bolivia: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, Baseline Scenario, 2007-2027
(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
| Projections | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Historical | Standard | Average | Average | ||||||||||||||
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Average 1/ | Deviation 1/ | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2007-12 | 2017 | 2027 | 2013-27 | ||||
| Public sector debt 2/ | 76.7 | 70.0 | 45.8 | 34.7 | 33.4 | 32.4 | 31.0 | 30.1 | 29.6 | 24.7 | 16.3 | |||||||
| Of which: foreign-currency denominated | 67.9 | 62.1 | 39.0 | 27.6 | 26.1 | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 20.5 | 14.5 | |||||||
| Change in public sector debt | 2.6 | -6.7 | -24.2 | -11.1 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.7 | |||||||
| Identified debt-creating flows | -2.9 | -5.3 | -15.5 | -6.5 | -4.6 | -4.0 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.5 | -3.3 | -1.5 | |||||||
| Primary deficit | 2.6 | -0.8 | -7.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | -3.4 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.6 | -3.8 | -3.9 | -3.5 | -3.1 | -1.2 | -2.5 | |||
| Revenue and grants | 26.8 | 31.3 | 35.2 | 32.3 | 32.0 | 31.3 | 31.6 | 31.9 | 32.3 | 30.6 | 27.1 | |||||||
| Of which: grants | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||||
| Primary (noninterest) expenditure | 29.4 | 30.5 | 28.0 | 28.9 | 28.8 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 28.1 | 28.4 | 27.5 | 25.8 | |||||||
| Automatic debt dynamics | -4.3 | -3.5 | -8.3 | -3.1 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | |||||||
| Contribution from interest rate/growth differential | -3.0 | -2.2 | -2.8 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | |||||||
| Of which: contribution from average real interest rate | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | |||||||
| Of which: contribution from real GDP growth | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -0.7 | |||||||
| Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation | -1.3 | -1.3 | -5.4 | -2.7 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | … | … | |||||||
| Other identified debt-creating flows | -1.3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Privatization receipts (negative) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Debt relief (HIPC and other) | -1.3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Residual, including asset changes | 5.6 | -1.4 | -8.7 | -4.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | |||||||
| NPV of public sector debt | … | 44.8 | 40.2 | 33.9 | 32.5 | 31.3 | 29.9 | 28.9 | 28.2 | 22.5 | 14.1 | |||||||
| Of which: foreign-currency denominated | … | 36.9 | 33.4 | 26.8 | 25.2 | 23.9 | 22.7 | 22.2 | 21.9 | 18.4 | 12.3 | |||||||
| Of which: external | … | 22.3 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 9.7 | |||||||
| NPV of contingent liabilities (not included in public sector debt) | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| Gross financing need 3/ | 14.9 | 12.2 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |||||||
| NPV of public sector debt-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) | … | 143.1 | 114.1 | 104.9 | 101.5 | 100.2 | 94.7 | 90.8 | 87.4 | 73.6 | 52.2 | |||||||
| NPV of public sector debt-to-revenue ratio (in percent) | … | 153.8 | 120.6 | 110.5 | 106.1 | 104.4 | 98.2 | 93.8 | 90.2 | 76.1 | 54.2 | |||||||
| Of which: external 4/ | … | 76.7 | 63.0 | 52.0 | 50.8 | 50.6 | 48.5 | 47.6 | 47.4 | 44.8 | 37.1 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue and grants ratio (in percent) 5/ | 35.1 | 31.8 | 20.0 | 17.5 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 15.9 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 7.7 | |||||||
| Debt service-to-revenue ratio (in percent) 5/ | 38.7 | 34.2 | 21.1 | 18.4 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 16.4 | 15.1 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 8.0 | |||||||
| Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio | 0.0 | 5.9 | 17.0 | 7.7 | -2.0 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -2.9 | -3.3 | -2.1 | -0.5 | |||||||
| Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real GDP growth (in percent) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) | 4.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 | |||
| Average real interest rate on domestic currency debt (in percent) | -4.2 | 5.1 | -2.2 | -3.1 | 4.4 | -2.5 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.2 | |||
| Real exchange rate depreciation (in percent, + indicates depreciation) | -2.5 | -2.0 | -9.1 | 1.2 | 5.5 | -7.0 | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | |||
| Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent) | 8.5 | 4.6 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |||
| Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent) | 4.5 | 8.6 | -4.0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | |||
| Grant element of new external borrowing (in percent) | … | … | … | … | … | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | … | |||
Historical averages and standard deviations are generally derived over the past 10 years, subject to data availability.
[Indicate coverage of public sector, e.g., general government or nonfinancial public sector. Also whether net or gross debt is used.]
Gross financing need is defined as the primary deficit plus debt service plus the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period.
Revenues excluding grants.
Debt service is defined as the sum of interest and amortization of medium and long-term debt.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2007-2027
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of 20 (i.e., the length of the projection pe
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2007-2027
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2017 | 2027 | |
| NPV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 34 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 23 | 14 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 34 | 38 | 43 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 85 | 122 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2007 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 9 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 35 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 41 | 46 | 57 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 34 | 41 | 48 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 38 | 30 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 34 | 40 | 47 | 46 | 44 | 44 | 38 | 29 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2008 | 34 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 34 | 27 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2008 | 34 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 38 | 38 | 32 | 23 |
| NPV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 105 | 102 | 100 | 95 | 91 | 87 | 74 | 52 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 105 | 119 | 137 | 151 | 167 | 183 | 276 | 445 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2007 | 105 | 102 | 102 | 98 | 96 | 96 | 93 | 35 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 105 | 102 | 102 | 97 | 95 | 93 | 94 | 127 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 105 | 109 | 119 | 120 | 122 | 125 | 150 | 210 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 105 | 128 | 155 | 148 | 142 | 138 | 126 | 110 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 105 | 126 | 150 | 144 | 139 | 135 | 125 | 108 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2008 | 105 | 136 | 135 | 128 | 124 | 121 | 111 | 99 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2008 | 105 | 133 | 132 | 125 | 120 | 116 | 104 | 85 |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 18 | 17 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 40 | 82 | 160 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2007 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 4 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 34 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 37 | 68 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 18 | 17 | 24 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 33 | 32 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 18 | 17 | 24 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2008 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2008 | 18 | 17 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 21 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of 20 (i.e., the length of the projection pe
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Bolivia: Sensitivity Analysis for Key Indicators of Public Debt 2007-2027
| Projections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2017 | 2027 | |
| NPV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio | ||||||||
| Baseline | 34 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 23 | 14 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 34 | 38 | 43 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 85 | 122 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2007 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 9 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 35 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 41 | 46 | 57 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 34 | 41 | 48 | 47 | 45 | 44 | 38 | 30 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 34 | 40 | 47 | 46 | 44 | 44 | 38 | 29 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2008 | 34 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 34 | 27 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2008 | 34 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 38 | 38 | 32 | 23 |
| NPV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 105 | 102 | 100 | 95 | 91 | 87 | 74 | 52 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 105 | 119 | 137 | 151 | 167 | 183 | 276 | 445 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2007 | 105 | 102 | 102 | 98 | 96 | 96 | 93 | 35 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 105 | 102 | 102 | 97 | 95 | 93 | 94 | 127 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 105 | 109 | 119 | 120 | 122 | 125 | 150 | 210 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 105 | 128 | 155 | 148 | 142 | 138 | 126 | 110 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 105 | 126 | 150 | 144 | 139 | 135 | 125 | 108 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2008 | 105 | 136 | 135 | 128 | 124 | 121 | 111 | 99 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2008 | 105 | 133 | 132 | 125 | 120 | 116 | 104 | 85 |
| Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio 2/ | ||||||||
| Baseline | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| A. Alternative scenarios | ||||||||
| A1. Real GDP growth and primary balance are at historical averages | 18 | 17 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 40 | 82 | 160 |
| A2. Primary balance is unchanged from 2007 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 4 |
| A3. Permanently lower GDP growth 1/ | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 34 |
| B. Bound tests | ||||||||
| B1. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 37 | 68 |
| B2. Primary balance is at historical average minus one standard deviations in 2008-2009 | 18 | 17 | 24 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 33 | 32 |
| B3. Combination of B1-B2 using one half standard deviation shocks | 18 | 17 | 24 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
| B4. One-time 30 percent real depreciation in 2008 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| B5. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2008 | 18 | 17 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 21 |
Assumes that real GDP growth is at baseline minus one standard deviation divided by the square root of 20 (i.e., the length of the projection pe
Revenues are defined inclusive of grants.
Bolivia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2006-2027 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Staff projections and simulations.1/ Most extreme stress test is test that yields highest ratio in 2017.2/ Revenue including grants.Bolivia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2006-2027 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Staff projections and simulations.1/ Most extreme stress test is test that yields highest ratio in 2017.2/ Revenue including grants.Bolivia: Indicators of Public Debt Under Alternative Scenarios, 2006-2027 1/
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 248; 10.5089/9781451805826.002.A003
Source: Staff projections and simulations.1/ Most extreme stress test is test that yields highest ratio in 2017.2/ Revenue including grants.Since Bolivia is an IDA blend country, this DSA was not conducted jointly with the World Bank.
Residuals shown on Table 1 are explained by the significant reserve accumulation expected during the projection period due to the strength of the balance of payments.
The World Bank’s 3-year average IDA Resource Allocation Index (IRAI) classifies Bolivia as a medium performer with respect to the overall quality of its macroeconomic policies and the related risk thresholds on NPV of debt-to-GDP and debt-to-exports ratios (40 and 150 percent, respectively) leave the country’s current levels with significant safety margins.
The historical test has been estimated on the basis of 5-year averages to leave out the extremely volatile years of the recent past. At the same time, for FDI we take only the average of the last four years to avoid an extremely positive bias due to the significant investments in hydrocarbons in the early years of this decade.
