Abstract
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Armenia. Armenia’s economy performs strongly. All end-December 2006 quantitative and all but one structural performance criteria were observed. The main policy challenges are to broaden economic growth, raise tax revenues, and manage large foreign exchange inflows. Fiscal policy remains appropriate. Meeting the ambitious 2007 revenue target will require broadening the tax base and strengthening administration. The stance of monetary policy is appropriate.
I. Background to the Discussions
1. Armenia’s economy continues to perform very well, with double-digit growth and notable reductions in poverty (Table 1). The main policy challenges are to broaden economic growth, raise tax revenues, and manage foreign exchange inflows.
Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2002–07
Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Comprises state-owned energy companies. Data for 2002 includes the electricity distribution company, Armelnet, which was privatized in late-2002. Data for 2003-04 exclude Armelnet and two generation companies that were also privatized.
In percent of exports of goods and services.
Gross international reserves excluding the special privatization account (SPA).
Gross international reserves in months of next year’s imports of goods and services.
A positive sign denotes appreciation. Base year 1995=100. The calculations are based on 1999-2001 average trade weights.
Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2002–07
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prog. | Est. | Proj. | ||||||
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||
| National income and prices | |||||||||
| Real GDP growth | 13.2 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 13.4 | 9.0 | ||
| Gross domestic product (in billions of drams) | 1,362 | 1,625 | 1,908 | 2,244 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 3,021 | ||
| Gross domestic product (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 2,373 | 2,807 | 3,578 | 4,911 | 6,114 | 6,406 | 7,625 | ||
| Gross domestic product per capita (in U.S. dollars) | 739 | 874 | 1,113 | 1,524 | 1,892 | 1,989 | 2,348 | ||
| CPI (period average) | 1.1 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.5 | ||
| CPI (end of period) | 2.0 | 8.6 | 2.0 | −0.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | ||
| GDP deflator | 2.4 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.0 | ||
| Unemployment rate (in percent) | 9.4 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 8.1 | … | 7.2 | … | ||
| Poverty rate (in percent) | … | 42.9 | 34.6 | 29.8 | … | … | … | ||
| Investment and saving (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Investment | 21.7 | 24.3 | 24.9 | 29.7 | 30.5 | 29.2 | 30.3 | ||
| National savings | 15.4 | 17.5 | 20.4 | 25.7 | 25.5 | 25.2 | 25.3 | ||
| Money and credit (end of period) | |||||||||
| Reserve money | 38.4 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 51.9 | 25.1 | 41.1 | 25.2 | ||
| Broad money | 34.0 | 10.4 | 22.3 | 27.8 | 27.0 | 32.9 | 24.0 | ||
| Commercial banks’ 3-month lending rate (in percent) | 22.0 | 22.5 | 17.5 | 18.3 | … | 17.0 | … | ||
| Central government operations (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 18.8 | 17.8 | 15.4 | 15.7 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 16.7 | ||
| Of which: tax revenue | 14.6 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 15.2 | ||
| Expenditure and net lending | 19.3 | 18.9 | 17.1 | 18.3 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 19.0 | ||
| Overall balance on a commitment basis | −0.4 | −1.1 | −1.7 | −2.6 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||
| Overall balance on a cash basis | −2.6 | −1.5 | −1.6 | −2.6 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||
| Stock of domestic expenditure arrears | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Government and government-guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP) | 46.6 | 40.9 | 32.4 | 24.2 | 22.2 | 21.7 | 16.6 | ||
| Share of foreign currency debt (in percent) | 94.4 | 93.5 | 93.0 | 91.3 | 91.1 | 90.4 | 87.4 | ||
| Primary balance of the energy sector (in percent of GDP) 1/ | −0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | … | … | … | ||
| External sector | |||||||||
| Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 698 | 903 | 985 | 1,337 | 1,437 | 1,407 | 1,548 | ||
| Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | −1,107 | −1,406 | −1,514 | −1,984 | −2,309 | −2,340 | −2,690 | ||
| Exports of goods and services | 29.3 | 29.5 | 9.0 | 35.7 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 10.0 | ||
| Imports of goods and services | 13.2 | 27.0 | 7.7 | 31.1 | 16 | 18.0 | 14.9 | ||
| Current account (in percent of GDP) | −6.2 | −6.8 | −4.5 | −3.9 | −4.9 | −4.0 | −5.0 | ||
| FDI (net, in millions of U.S. dollars) | 111 | 121 | 217 | 252 | 267 | 287 | 316 | ||
| External debt-to-exports ratio (NPV, in percent) | 131 | 60 | 59 | 60 | 47 | 52 | 51 | ||
| Debt service ratio 2/ | 9.8 | 15.6 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | ||
| Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) 3/ | 430 | 502 | 547 | 667 | 790 | 1072 | 1246 | ||
| Import cover 4/ | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | ||
| Nominal effective exchange rate 5/ | −5.8 | −4.6 | 11.5 | 13.6 | … | 14.3 | … | ||
| Real effective exchange rate 5/ | −10.8 | −2.6 | 6.5 | 7.4 | … | 13.6 | … | ||
| End-of-period exchange rate (dram per dollar) | 585 | 566 | 486 | 450 | … | 364 | … | ||
| Average exchange rate (dram per dollar) | 573 | 579 | 533 | 458 | … | 416 | … | ||
| Memorandum item: | |||||||||
| Population (in millions) | 3.210 | 3.212 | 3.214 | 3.223 | … | 3.221 | … | ||
Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Comprises state-owned energy companies. Data for 2002 includes the electricity distribution company, Armelnet, which was privatized in late-2002. Data for 2003-04 exclude Armelnet and two generation companies that were also privatized.
In percent of exports of goods and services.
Gross international reserves excluding the special privatization account (SPA).
Gross international reserves in months of next year’s imports of goods and services.
A positive sign denotes appreciation. Base year 1995=100. The calculations are based on 1999-2001 average trade weights.
Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2002–07
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2006 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act. | Prog. | Est. | Proj. | ||||||
| (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) | |||||||||
| National income and prices | |||||||||
| Real GDP growth | 13.2 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 13.4 | 9.0 | ||
| Gross domestic product (in billions of drams) | 1,362 | 1,625 | 1,908 | 2,244 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 3,021 | ||
| Gross domestic product (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 2,373 | 2,807 | 3,578 | 4,911 | 6,114 | 6,406 | 7,625 | ||
| Gross domestic product per capita (in U.S. dollars) | 739 | 874 | 1,113 | 1,524 | 1,892 | 1,989 | 2,348 | ||
| CPI (period average) | 1.1 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.5 | ||
| CPI (end of period) | 2.0 | 8.6 | 2.0 | −0.2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | ||
| GDP deflator | 2.4 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.0 | ||
| Unemployment rate (in percent) | 9.4 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 8.1 | … | 7.2 | … | ||
| Poverty rate (in percent) | … | 42.9 | 34.6 | 29.8 | … | … | … | ||
| Investment and saving (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Investment | 21.7 | 24.3 | 24.9 | 29.7 | 30.5 | 29.2 | 30.3 | ||
| National savings | 15.4 | 17.5 | 20.4 | 25.7 | 25.5 | 25.2 | 25.3 | ||
| Money and credit (end of period) | |||||||||
| Reserve money | 38.4 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 51.9 | 25.1 | 41.1 | 25.2 | ||
| Broad money | 34.0 | 10.4 | 22.3 | 27.8 | 27.0 | 32.9 | 24.0 | ||
| Commercial banks’ 3-month lending rate (in percent) | 22.0 | 22.5 | 17.5 | 18.3 | … | 17.0 | … | ||
| Central government operations (in percent of GDP) | |||||||||
| Revenue and grants | 18.8 | 17.8 | 15.4 | 15.7 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 16.7 | ||
| Of which: tax revenue | 14.6 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 15.2 | ||
| Expenditure and net lending | 19.3 | 18.9 | 17.1 | 18.3 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 19.0 | ||
| Overall balance on a commitment basis | −0.4 | −1.1 | −1.7 | −2.6 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||
| Overall balance on a cash basis | −2.6 | −1.5 | −1.6 | −2.6 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||
| Stock of domestic expenditure arrears | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Government and government-guaranteed debt (in percent of GDP) | 46.6 | 40.9 | 32.4 | 24.2 | 22.2 | 21.7 | 16.6 | ||
| Share of foreign currency debt (in percent) | 94.4 | 93.5 | 93.0 | 91.3 | 91.1 | 90.4 | 87.4 | ||
| Primary balance of the energy sector (in percent of GDP) 1/ | −0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | … | … | … | ||
| External sector | |||||||||
| Exports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 698 | 903 | 985 | 1,337 | 1,437 | 1,407 | 1,548 | ||
| Imports of goods and services (in millions of U.S. dollars) | −1,107 | −1,406 | −1,514 | −1,984 | −2,309 | −2,340 | −2,690 | ||
| Exports of goods and services | 29.3 | 29.5 | 9.0 | 35.7 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 10.0 | ||
| Imports of goods and services | 13.2 | 27.0 | 7.7 | 31.1 | 16 | 18.0 | 14.9 | ||
| Current account (in percent of GDP) | −6.2 | −6.8 | −4.5 | −3.9 | −4.9 | −4.0 | −5.0 | ||
| FDI (net, in millions of U.S. dollars) | 111 | 121 | 217 | 252 | 267 | 287 | 316 | ||
| External debt-to-exports ratio (NPV, in percent) | 131 | 60 | 59 | 60 | 47 | 52 | 51 | ||
| Debt service ratio 2/ | 9.8 | 15.6 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | ||
| Gross international reserves (in millions of U.S. dollars) 3/ | 430 | 502 | 547 | 667 | 790 | 1072 | 1246 | ||
| Import cover 4/ | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | ||
| Nominal effective exchange rate 5/ | −5.8 | −4.6 | 11.5 | 13.6 | … | 14.3 | … | ||
| Real effective exchange rate 5/ | −10.8 | −2.6 | 6.5 | 7.4 | … | 13.6 | … | ||
| End-of-period exchange rate (dram per dollar) | 585 | 566 | 486 | 450 | … | 364 | … | ||
| Average exchange rate (dram per dollar) | 573 | 579 | 533 | 458 | … | 416 | … | ||
| Memorandum item: | |||||||||
| Population (in millions) | 3.210 | 3.212 | 3.214 | 3.223 | … | 3.221 | … | ||
Sources: Armenian authorities; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
Comprises state-owned energy companies. Data for 2002 includes the electricity distribution company, Armelnet, which was privatized in late-2002. Data for 2003-04 exclude Armelnet and two generation companies that were also privatized.
In percent of exports of goods and services.
Gross international reserves excluding the special privatization account (SPA).
Gross international reserves in months of next year’s imports of goods and services.
A positive sign denotes appreciation. Base year 1995=100. The calculations are based on 1999-2001 average trade weights.
2. The PRGF-supported program remains on track. All end-December 2006 quantitative and all but one structural performance criteria were observed (Tables 2 and 3). A new insurance law (structural performance criterion) was submitted to parliament in January 2007 rather than December 2006.1 The law was subsequently passed in April. The authorities requested that the quantitative performance criterion on tax revenues of the central government be changed to an indicative target, effective June 1, 2007, given their strong track record in meeting the target under the program.
Armenia: Quantitative Targets, June 2006-December 2006 1/
(End of period ceilings on stocks, unless otherwise specified)
All items as defined in the technical memorandum of understanding.
Performance criterion.
Indicative target.
At program exchange rate of of 450 dram per U.S. dollar for 2006.
Cumulative flow from the beginning of the calendar year until the end of the month indicated.
AMD 8 billion from the privatization of Zangzeur is classified as financing (below-the-line) from June 2006 onwards.
Includes debt with maturity of more than a year, as well as obligations with maturity of one year or less, excluding normal import-related credit and sales of treasury bills to nonresidents.
Armenia: Quantitative Targets, June 2006-December 2006 1/
(End of period ceilings on stocks, unless otherwise specified)
| 2006 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | ||||
| Prog. | Actual 2/ | Prog. | Actual 3/ | Prog. | Est. 2/ | |
| Net domestic assets of the CBA 4/ | −29.8 | −54.2 | −32.0 | −49.4 | −19.8 | −115.4 |
| Net banking system credit to the government | −1.2 | −13.4 | 7.1 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −31.8 |
| Domestic arrears of the central government | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax revenues of the central government (floor) 5/ | 162.1 | 167.9 | 259.1 | 268.8 | 378.1 | 383.8 |
| Balance of the central government on a cash basis (floor) 5/6/ | −31.9 | −14.5 | −48.5 | −31.8 | −60.2 | −50.4 |
| Reserve money (band/level) 3/ | (199-207) | 199.1 | (216-225) | 231.1 | (246-256) | 283.0 |
| Contributions to the State Fund for Social Insurance (floor) 3/5/ | 34.0 | 33.6 | 52.4 | 52.6 | 74.0 | 73.3 |
| Contracting or guaranteeing of new nonconcessional external debt 5/7/ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| External arrears (continuous criterion) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net official international reserves (floor) | 492.0 | 510.4 | 543.9 | 528.0 | 577.2 | 812.2 |
All items as defined in the technical memorandum of understanding.
Performance criterion.
Indicative target.
At program exchange rate of of 450 dram per U.S. dollar for 2006.
Cumulative flow from the beginning of the calendar year until the end of the month indicated.
AMD 8 billion from the privatization of Zangzeur is classified as financing (below-the-line) from June 2006 onwards.
Includes debt with maturity of more than a year, as well as obligations with maturity of one year or less, excluding normal import-related credit and sales of treasury bills to nonresidents.
Armenia: Quantitative Targets, June 2006-December 2006 1/
(End of period ceilings on stocks, unless otherwise specified)
| 2006 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun. | Sep. | Dec. | ||||
| Prog. | Actual 2/ | Prog. | Actual 3/ | Prog. | Est. 2/ | |
| Net domestic assets of the CBA 4/ | −29.8 | −54.2 | −32.0 | −49.4 | −19.8 | −115.4 |
| Net banking system credit to the government | −1.2 | −13.4 | 7.1 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −31.8 |
| Domestic arrears of the central government | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax revenues of the central government (floor) 5/ | 162.1 | 167.9 | 259.1 | 268.8 | 378.1 | 383.8 |
| Balance of the central government on a cash basis (floor) 5/6/ | −31.9 | −14.5 | −48.5 | −31.8 | −60.2 | −50.4 |
| Reserve money (band/level) 3/ | (199-207) | 199.1 | (216-225) | 231.1 | (246-256) | 283.0 |
| Contributions to the State Fund for Social Insurance (floor) 3/5/ | 34.0 | 33.6 | 52.4 | 52.6 | 74.0 | 73.3 |
| Contracting or guaranteeing of new nonconcessional external debt 5/7/ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| External arrears (continuous criterion) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net official international reserves (floor) | 492.0 | 510.4 | 543.9 | 528.0 | 577.2 | 812.2 |
All items as defined in the technical memorandum of understanding.
Performance criterion.
Indicative target.
At program exchange rate of of 450 dram per U.S. dollar for 2006.
Cumulative flow from the beginning of the calendar year until the end of the month indicated.
AMD 8 billion from the privatization of Zangzeur is classified as financing (below-the-line) from June 2006 onwards.
Includes debt with maturity of more than a year, as well as obligations with maturity of one year or less, excluding normal import-related credit and sales of treasury bills to nonresidents.
Armenia: Status of Measures Under the Fourth Review of the PRGF 1/
As agreed to in the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies of November 1, 2006.
Armenia: Status of Measures Under the Fourth Review of the PRGF 1/
| Measure | Proposed Time Frame (End of Period) | Type of Conditionality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax administration | |||
| Strengthen the IT capacity of the State Tax Service (STS): | |||
| (i) Establish an electronic risk-based selection system for VAT cross-checks, audits, and refunds. Issue an STS decree specifying the procedures and a timeline that envisages full technical implementation by the end of 2007. | December 2006 | Structural Benchmark | Observed |
| Public financial manaaement | |||
| Submit to parliament amendments to the law on state noncommercial enterprises to narrow their definition and their activities and define the functions of the management bodies. | December 2006 | Structural Benchmark | Not observed. The amendments were submitted to parliament in January 2007. |
| Financial Sector | |||
| Submit to parliament an amendment to the Law on Banking Secrecy, which would allow the CBA to publish violations of and sanctions against commercial banks that do not comply with the Law on Banks and Banking. | December 2006 | Structural Benchmark | Observed |
| Submit to parliament a new Insurance Law that corresponds to the standards of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors. | December 2006 | Structural Performance | Not observed. The amendments were submitted to parliament in January 2007. |
As agreed to in the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies of November 1, 2006.
Armenia: Status of Measures Under the Fourth Review of the PRGF 1/
| Measure | Proposed Time Frame (End of Period) | Type of Conditionality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax administration | |||
| Strengthen the IT capacity of the State Tax Service (STS): | |||
| (i) Establish an electronic risk-based selection system for VAT cross-checks, audits, and refunds. Issue an STS decree specifying the procedures and a timeline that envisages full technical implementation by the end of 2007. | December 2006 | Structural Benchmark | Observed |
| Public financial manaaement | |||
| Submit to parliament amendments to the law on state noncommercial enterprises to narrow their definition and their activities and define the functions of the management bodies. | December 2006 | Structural Benchmark | Not observed. The amendments were submitted to parliament in January 2007. |
| Financial Sector | |||
| Submit to parliament an amendment to the Law on Banking Secrecy, which would allow the CBA to publish violations of and sanctions against commercial banks that do not comply with the Law on Banks and Banking. | December 2006 | Structural Benchmark | Observed |
| Submit to parliament a new Insurance Law that corresponds to the standards of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors. | December 2006 | Structural Performance | Not observed. The amendments were submitted to parliament in January 2007. |
As agreed to in the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies of November 1, 2006.
3. The political scene is dominated by parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for May 2007 and March 2008, respectively. Defense Minister Serge Sargsyan was recently appointed as prime minister, following the untimely death of Mr. Margaryan on March 25.
4. Policy discussions centered on macroeconomic prospects for 2007 and tax and financial sector reforms to sustain economic growth and further reduce poverty.
II. Recent Economic and Financial Developments
5. Economic growth remains strong. Real GDP increased by 13.4 percent in 2006, the fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth, led by construction, which grew by more than 37 percent. In the first two months of 2007, real GDP grew by 9.4 percent (year-on-year), led by nontradable sectors. The 2005 household survey shows a decline in overall poverty from 35 percent in 2004 to 30 percent in 2005.
Armenia: Economic Activity and Inflation
(In percent, year-on-year growth)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 181; 10.5089/9781451801668.002.A001
Armenia: Economic Activity and Inflation
(In percent, year-on-year growth)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 181; 10.5089/9781451801668.002.A001
Armenia: Economic Activity and Inflation
(In percent, year-on-year growth)
Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2007, 181; 10.5089/9781451801668.002.A001
Armenia: Main Poverty Indicators 1/
Source: National Statistical Service.
Poverty incidence is assessed as the percentage of population whose monthly per capita expenditures does not exceed the poverty line.
Armenia: Main Poverty Indicators 1/
| 1998/99 | 2004 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poverty | 56.1 | 34.6 | 29.8 |
| Poverty line (AMD) | 17,663 | 19,373 | 20,289 |
| Extreme Poverty | 21.0 | 6.4 | 4.6 |
| Urban areas | |||
| Poverty | 62.1 | 36.4 | 30.7 |
| Extreme Poverty | 26.2 | 7.5 | 5.3 |
| Yerevan | |||
| Poverty | 58.4 | 29.2 | 23.9 |
| Extreme Poverty | 24.8 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
| Other cities | |||
| Poverty | 65.5 | 43.9 | 37.8 |
| Extreme Poverty | 27.4 | 9.2 | 7.2 |
| Rural areas | |||
| Poverty | 48.2 | 31.7 | 28.3 |
| Extreme Poverty | 14.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
Source: National Statistical Service.
Poverty incidence is assessed as the percentage of population whose monthly per capita expenditures does not exceed the poverty line.
Armenia: Main Poverty Indicators 1/
| 1998/99 | 2004 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poverty | 56.1 | 34.6 | 29.8 |
| Poverty line (AMD) | 17,663 | 19,373 | 20,289 |
| Extreme Poverty | 21.0 | 6.4 | 4.6 |
| Urban areas | |||
| Poverty | 62.1 | 36.4 | 30.7 |
| Extreme Poverty | 26.2 | 7.5 | 5.3 |
| Yerevan | |||
| Poverty | 58.4 | 29.2 | 23.9 |
| Extreme Poverty | 24.8 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
| Other cities | |||
| Poverty | 65.5 | 43.9 | 37.8 |
| Extreme Poverty | 27.4 | 9.2 | 7.2 |
| Rural areas | |||
| Poverty | 48.2 | 31.7 | 28.3 |
| Extreme Poverty | 14.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
Source: National Statistical Service.
Poverty incidence is assessed as the percentage of population whose monthly per capita expenditures does not exceed the poverty line.
6. Fiscal policy remained sound in 2006, with an overall deficit of 1.9 percent of GDP (compared to the program target of 2.3 percent of GDP) (Table 4). Tax revenues increased by 19 percent in 2006, but the tax-to-GDP ratio remained low, reflecting low buoyancy of VAT revenues. Shortfalls in external financing for investment projects accounted for lower-than-programmed total expenditures. In the first two months of 2007, tax revenues and total expenditures grew by 25 percent and 17 percent year-on-year, respectively.
Armenia: Fiscal Indicators, December 2006
Cumulative flow from the beginning of the year until the end of December.
Overall balance on a commitment basis.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2005–07
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Economy, Central Bank of Armenia, and Fund staff estimates.“Prog.” refers to the program agreed to in November 2006. Relative to the budget, the staff presentation makes the following adjustments: (i) estimated military wages are reclassified from other goods and services to Wages; (ii) external grants, external interest, and external financing are converted at the program exchange rate of AMD 450 per U.S. dollar for 2006 and AMD 357 per U.S. dollar for 2007.
According to the budget.
As the SPA is not included in net claims on central government (NCCG), timing differences between the conversion of SPA funds into domestic currency deposits (which are included in NCCG). and their spending can affect the consistency between the CBA financing in the fiscal accounts and the change in NCCG in the monetary accounts. However, in any quarter the change in the sum of SPA plus NCCG in the monetary accounts equals the sum of CBA plus SPA financing in the fiscal accounts.
The 2007 IMF column includes USD 28 million in PRSC disbursements and the principal portion of debt relief provided by the UK (the interest portion is included in grants).
VAT on the subsidized component of the tariff not paid by consumers.
Projections based on consumption growth for small and large consumers of 15 and 5 percent respectively in 2007 and zero in 2008.
As described in the government decree of 6th April, 2006, N449-N.
As described in the same decree to be paid to the state budget. No payment was incorporated in the 2007 budget.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2005–07
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan.-Dec. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Jan.-Dec. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Jan.-Dec. | |||||||||
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Proj. | Proj. 1/, 2/ | |||||||||
| (In billions of drams) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 351.9 | 79.9 | 100.3 | 115.8 | 108.7 | 145.0 | 130.9 | 449.0 | 419.8 | 102.3 | 122.9 | 136.1 | 144.4 | 505.7 | |||||
| Total revenue | 342.1 | 79.5 | 97.4 | 108.8 | 107.6 | 114.8 | 123.2 | 408.5 | 407.7 | 100.6 | 120.8 | 131.6 | 137.5 | 490.5 | |||||
| Tax revenue | 321.5 | 74.5 | 93.4 | 101.0 | 100.9 | 110.5 | 115.0 | 378.1 | 383.8 | 93.4 | 110.8 | 122.2 | 132.5 | 458.8 | |||||
| Value-added tax | 146.8 | 31.8 | 37.7 | … | 44.3 | … | 52.1 | … | 165.9 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Excises | 38.6 | 9.0 | 8.4 | … | 11.1 | … | 11.3 | … | 39.9 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Profits, simplified, and presumptive taxes | 66.2 | 16.6 | 26.5 | … | 20.8 | … | 24.2 | … | 88.1 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Personal income tax | 26.6 | 7.6 | 7.8 | … | 9.0 | … | 11.0 | … | 35.5 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Customs duties | 16.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 | … | 4.7 | … | 5.5 | … | 18.3 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Other taxes | 26.8 | 5.9 | 8.4 | … | 11.0 | … | 11.0 | … | 36.2 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Nontax revenue | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 17.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 12.2 | |||||
| Capital revenue | 12.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 12.6 | 15.9 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 19.5 | |||||
| Grants | 9.8 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 30.2 | 7.6 | 40.5 | 12.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 15.1 | |||||
| Of which: MCA (for 2007) and Lincy | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 1.0 | 26.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4.5 | |||||
| Total expenditure | 409.8 | 83.5 | 116.7 | 141.9 | 126.7 | 167.1 | 143.0 | 509.1 | 469.9 | 116.3 | 141.7 | 146.3 | 169.8 | 574.1 | |||||
| Current expenditure | 304.1 | 69.2 | 85.1 | 98.7 | 88.4 | 99.0 | 106.5 | 352.0 | 349.2 | … | … | … | … | 406.2 | |||||
| Wages | 44.1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 19.4 | 14.9 | 55.9 | 49.0 | … | … | … | … | 59.3 | |||||
| Subsidies | 14.9 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 19.5 | 16.4 | … | … | … | … | 19.8 | |||||
| Interest | 10.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 9.0 | … | … | … | … | 11.4 | |||||
| Transfers | 83.2 | 19.6 | 22.8 | 21.7 | 26.2 | 23.1 | 33.0 | 87.2 | 101.6 | … | … | … | … | 97.9 | |||||
| Goods and services | 151.5 | 34.0 | 44.3 | 58.4 | 42.5 | 43.8 | 52.5 | 179.6 | 173.2 | … | … | … | … | 217.8 | |||||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 105.7 | 14.3 | 31.6 | 43.2 | 38.3 | 68.0 | 36.5 | 157.1 | 120.7 | … | … | … | … | 167.9 | |||||
| Capital expenditure | 92.4 | 11.0 | 27.3 | 38.6 | 33.8 | 63.2 | 32.2 | 140.1 | 104.2 | … | … | … | … | 146.5 | |||||
| Net lending | 13.3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 17.0 | 16.4 | … | … | … | … | 21.4 | |||||
| Overall balance (commitment) | −57.9 | −3.7 | −16.3 | −26.1 | −18.0 | −22.1 | −12.2 | −60.2 | −50.2 | −14.0 | −18.8 | −10.2 | −25.4 | −68.4 | |||||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | −0.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 5.5 | −6.5 | 0.0 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| Overall balance (cash) | −58.0 | −0.6 | −13.9 | −26.1 | −17.2 | −27.5 | −18.7 | −60.2 | −50.4 | −14.0 | −18.8 | −10.2 | −25.4 | −68.4 | |||||
| Deficit/financing | 58.0 | 0.6 | 13.9 | 26.1 | 17.2 | 27.5 | 18.7 | 60.2 | 50.4 | 14.0 | 18.8 | 10.2 | 25.4 | 68.4 | |||||
| Domestic financing | 42.5 | −2.2 | 1.1 | 20.2 | 11.4 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 27.4 | 22.6 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 22.2 | |||||
| Bank financing | 29.5 | −2.4 | −8.1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 10.2 | −8.9 | 6.2 | −9.3 | 1.2 | −5.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.3 | |||||
| Central Bank of Armenia (net) 1/ | 25.8 | −1.1 | −8.5 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.0 | −13.3 | 4.3 | −12.7 | −0.2 | −8.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | −4.7 | |||||
| Commercial Banks (net) | 3.7 | −1.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 7.0 | |||||
| Nonbank financing (net) | 0.5 | 0.2 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 32.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | |||||
| Special Privatization Account (net) 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.3 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.2 | |||||
| Privaitzation proceeds | 12.5 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| External financing 4/ | 15.5 | 2.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 32.8 | 27.8 | 2.6 | 15.1 | 6.5 | 22.0 | 46.2 | |||||
| Gross inflow | 22.7 | 5.4 | 14.1 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 40.8 | 34.9 | 4.7 | 16.2 | 8.1 | 23.2 | 52.3 | |||||
| Of which: PRSC | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | ||||||
| Amortization due | −7.2 | −2.5 | −1.4 | −2.6 | −2.0 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −8.0 | −7.1 | −2.2 | −1.1 | −1.6 | −1.2 | −6.1 | |||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan.-Dec. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Jan.-Dec. | Jan.-Dec. | ||||||||
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Proj. 1/, 2/ | |||||
| (In percent of GDP unless specified otherwise) | ||||||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 15.7 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 16.7 | ||||
| Total revenue | 15.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 16.2 | ||||
| Tax revenue | 14.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 15.2 | ||||
| Value-added tax | 6.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | … | 1.7 | … | 2.0 | … | 6.2 | … | ||||
| Excises | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | … | 0.4 | … | 0.4 | … | 1.5 | … | ||||
| Profits, simplified, and presumptive taxes | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | … | 0.8 | … | 0.9 | … | 3.3 | … | ||||
| Personal income tax | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | … | 0.3 | … | 0.4 | … | 1.3 | … | ||||
| Customs duties | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | … | 0.2 | … | 0.2 | … | 0.7 | … | ||||
| Other taxes | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | … | 0.4 | … | 0.4 | … | 1.4 | … | ||||
| Nontax revenue | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | ||||
| Capital revenue | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Grants | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||
| Total expenditure | 18.3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 19.0 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 13.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 13.4 | ||||
| Wages | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | … | ||||
| Subsidies | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | … | ||||
| Interest | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | ||||
| Transfers | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | … | ||||
| Goods and services | 6.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | … | ||||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 4.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.6 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 4.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.8 | ||||
| Net lending | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | ||||
| Overall balance (commitment) | −2.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall balance (cash) | −2.6 | 0.0 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||||
| Deficit/financing | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 1.9 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||
| Bank financing | 1.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | −0.3 | 0.2 | −0.3 | 0.1 | ||||
| Central Bank of Armenia (net) 3/ | 1.2 | 0.0 | −0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | −0.5 | 0.2 | −0.5 | … | ||||
| Commercial Banks (net) | 0.2 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | … | ||||
| Nonbank financing (net) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | ||||
| Special Privatization Account (net) 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | ||||
| Privaitzation proceeds | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||
| External financing 4/ | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | ||||
| Gross inflow | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | ||||
| Amortization due | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Memorandum items | ||||||||||||||
| Estimated net additional VAT from higher gas prices 5/ | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||||
| Gas subsidy 6/ | … | 0.0 | 0.2 | … | 0.2 | … | 0.4 | … | 0.8 | 1.2 | ||||
| Financing of gas subsidy from privatization 7/ | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||
| Other privatization proceeds 8/ | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.0 | 0.1 | ||||
| Underlying balance (excl. grants and interest, commitment) | −2.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.9 | −0.6 | −3.5 | −2.0 | −2.4 | ||||
| Primary balance (excl. interest, commitment) | −2.1 | 0.0 | −0.5 | −0.9 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −1.5 | −1.9 | ||||
| Domestic expenditure arrears (stock in billions of drams) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Government and government-guaranteed debt | 24.2 | … | … | … | … | … | … | 22.2 | 21.7 | 16.6 | ||||
| Of which: domestic debt | 2.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (annual, in billions of drams) | 2,244 | 2,665 | 2,665 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 3,021 | ||||
“Prog.” refers to the program agreed to in November 2006. Relative to the budget, the staff presentation makes the following adjustments: (i) estimated military wages are reclassified from other goods and services to Wages; (ii) external grants, external interest, and external financing are converted at the program exchange rate of AMD 450 per U.S. dollar for 2006 and AMD 357 per U.S. dollar for 2007.
According to the budget.
As the SPA is not included in net claims on central government (NCCG), timing differences between the conversion of SPA funds into domestic currency deposits (which are included in NCCG). and their spending can affect the consistency between the CBA financing in the fiscal accounts and the change in NCCG in the monetary accounts. However, in any quarter the change in the sum of SPA plus NCCG in the monetary accounts equals the sum of CBA plus SPA financing in the fiscal accounts.
The 2007 IMF column includes USD 28 million in PRSC disbursements and the principal portion of debt relief provided by the UK (the interest portion is included in grants).
VAT on the subsidized component of the tariff not paid by consumers.
Projections based on consumption growth for small and large consumers of 15 and 5 percent respectively in 2007 and zero in 2008.
As described in the government decree of 6th April, 2006, N449-N.
As described in the same decree to be paid to the state budget. No payment was incorporated in the 2007 budget.
Armenia: Central Government Operations, 2005–07
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan.-Dec. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Jan.-Dec. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Jan.-Dec. | |||||||||
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Proj. | Proj. 1/, 2/ | |||||||||
| (In billions of drams) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 351.9 | 79.9 | 100.3 | 115.8 | 108.7 | 145.0 | 130.9 | 449.0 | 419.8 | 102.3 | 122.9 | 136.1 | 144.4 | 505.7 | |||||
| Total revenue | 342.1 | 79.5 | 97.4 | 108.8 | 107.6 | 114.8 | 123.2 | 408.5 | 407.7 | 100.6 | 120.8 | 131.6 | 137.5 | 490.5 | |||||
| Tax revenue | 321.5 | 74.5 | 93.4 | 101.0 | 100.9 | 110.5 | 115.0 | 378.1 | 383.8 | 93.4 | 110.8 | 122.2 | 132.5 | 458.8 | |||||
| Value-added tax | 146.8 | 31.8 | 37.7 | … | 44.3 | … | 52.1 | … | 165.9 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Excises | 38.6 | 9.0 | 8.4 | … | 11.1 | … | 11.3 | … | 39.9 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Profits, simplified, and presumptive taxes | 66.2 | 16.6 | 26.5 | … | 20.8 | … | 24.2 | … | 88.1 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Personal income tax | 26.6 | 7.6 | 7.8 | … | 9.0 | … | 11.0 | … | 35.5 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Customs duties | 16.5 | 3.6 | 4.5 | … | 4.7 | … | 5.5 | … | 18.3 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Other taxes | 26.8 | 5.9 | 8.4 | … | 11.0 | … | 11.0 | … | 36.2 | … | … | … | … | … | |||||
| Nontax revenue | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 17.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 12.2 | |||||
| Capital revenue | 12.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 12.6 | 15.9 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 19.5 | |||||
| Grants | 9.8 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 30.2 | 7.6 | 40.5 | 12.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 15.1 | |||||
| Of which: MCA (for 2007) and Lincy | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 1.0 | 26.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4.5 | |||||
| Total expenditure | 409.8 | 83.5 | 116.7 | 141.9 | 126.7 | 167.1 | 143.0 | 509.1 | 469.9 | 116.3 | 141.7 | 146.3 | 169.8 | 574.1 | |||||
| Current expenditure | 304.1 | 69.2 | 85.1 | 98.7 | 88.4 | 99.0 | 106.5 | 352.0 | 349.2 | … | … | … | … | 406.2 | |||||
| Wages | 44.1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 19.4 | 14.9 | 55.9 | 49.0 | … | … | … | … | 59.3 | |||||
| Subsidies | 14.9 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 19.5 | 16.4 | … | … | … | … | 19.8 | |||||
| Interest | 10.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 9.0 | … | … | … | … | 11.4 | |||||
| Transfers | 83.2 | 19.6 | 22.8 | 21.7 | 26.2 | 23.1 | 33.0 | 87.2 | 101.6 | … | … | … | … | 97.9 | |||||
| Goods and services | 151.5 | 34.0 | 44.3 | 58.4 | 42.5 | 43.8 | 52.5 | 179.6 | 173.2 | … | … | … | … | 217.8 | |||||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 105.7 | 14.3 | 31.6 | 43.2 | 38.3 | 68.0 | 36.5 | 157.1 | 120.7 | … | … | … | … | 167.9 | |||||
| Capital expenditure | 92.4 | 11.0 | 27.3 | 38.6 | 33.8 | 63.2 | 32.2 | 140.1 | 104.2 | … | … | … | … | 146.5 | |||||
| Net lending | 13.3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 17.0 | 16.4 | … | … | … | … | 21.4 | |||||
| Overall balance (commitment) | −57.9 | −3.7 | −16.3 | −26.1 | −18.0 | −22.1 | −12.2 | −60.2 | −50.2 | −14.0 | −18.8 | −10.2 | −25.4 | −68.4 | |||||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | −0.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 5.5 | −6.5 | 0.0 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| Overall balance (cash) | −58.0 | −0.6 | −13.9 | −26.1 | −17.2 | −27.5 | −18.7 | −60.2 | −50.4 | −14.0 | −18.8 | −10.2 | −25.4 | −68.4 | |||||
| Deficit/financing | 58.0 | 0.6 | 13.9 | 26.1 | 17.2 | 27.5 | 18.7 | 60.2 | 50.4 | 14.0 | 18.8 | 10.2 | 25.4 | 68.4 | |||||
| Domestic financing | 42.5 | −2.2 | 1.1 | 20.2 | 11.4 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 27.4 | 22.6 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 22.2 | |||||
| Bank financing | 29.5 | −2.4 | −8.1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 10.2 | −8.9 | 6.2 | −9.3 | 1.2 | −5.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.3 | |||||
| Central Bank of Armenia (net) 1/ | 25.8 | −1.1 | −8.5 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.0 | −13.3 | 4.3 | −12.7 | −0.2 | −8.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | −4.7 | |||||
| Commercial Banks (net) | 3.7 | −1.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 7.0 | |||||
| Nonbank financing (net) | 0.5 | 0.2 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 32.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | |||||
| Special Privatization Account (net) 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.3 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.2 | |||||
| Privaitzation proceeds | 12.5 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| External financing 4/ | 15.5 | 2.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 32.8 | 27.8 | 2.6 | 15.1 | 6.5 | 22.0 | 46.2 | |||||
| Gross inflow | 22.7 | 5.4 | 14.1 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 40.8 | 34.9 | 4.7 | 16.2 | 8.1 | 23.2 | 52.3 | |||||
| Of which: PRSC | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | ||||||
| Amortization due | −7.2 | −2.5 | −1.4 | −2.6 | −2.0 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −8.0 | −7.1 | −2.2 | −1.1 | −1.6 | −1.2 | −6.1 | |||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan.-Dec. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Jan.-Dec. | Jan.-Dec. | ||||||||
| Act. | Act. | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Act. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Rev. Prog. 1/ | Est. | Proj. 1/, 2/ | |||||
| (In percent of GDP unless specified otherwise) | ||||||||||||||
| Total revenue and grants | 15.7 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 16.7 | ||||
| Total revenue | 15.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 16.2 | ||||
| Tax revenue | 14.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 15.2 | ||||
| Value-added tax | 6.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | … | 1.7 | … | 2.0 | … | 6.2 | … | ||||
| Excises | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | … | 0.4 | … | 0.4 | … | 1.5 | … | ||||
| Profits, simplified, and presumptive taxes | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | … | 0.8 | … | 0.9 | … | 3.3 | … | ||||
| Personal income tax | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | … | 0.3 | … | 0.4 | … | 1.3 | … | ||||
| Customs duties | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | … | 0.2 | … | 0.2 | … | 0.7 | … | ||||
| Other taxes | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | … | 0.4 | … | 0.4 | … | 1.4 | … | ||||
| Nontax revenue | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | ||||
| Capital revenue | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | ||||
| Grants | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||
| Total expenditure | 18.3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 19.7 | 17.6 | 19.0 | ||||
| Current expenditure | 13.6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 13.4 | ||||
| Wages | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | … | ||||
| Subsidies | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | … | ||||
| Interest | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | ||||
| Transfers | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | … | ||||
| Goods and services | 6.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 | … | ||||
| Capital expenditure and net lending | 4.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.6 | ||||
| Capital expenditure | 4.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.8 | ||||
| Net lending | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | ||||
| Overall balance (commitment) | −2.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||||
| Statistical discrepancy/financing gap | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | −0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Overall balance (cash) | −2.6 | 0.0 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.6 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −2.3 | −1.9 | −2.3 | ||||
| Deficit/financing | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | ||||
| Domestic financing | 1.9 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||
| Bank financing | 1.3 | −0.1 | −0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | −0.3 | 0.2 | −0.3 | 0.1 | ||||
| Central Bank of Armenia (net) 3/ | 1.2 | 0.0 | −0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | −0.5 | 0.2 | −0.5 | … | ||||
| Commercial Banks (net) | 0.2 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | … | ||||
| Nonbank financing (net) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | ||||
| Special Privatization Account (net) 3/ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | ||||
| Privaitzation proceeds | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||
| External financing 4/ | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | ||||
| Gross inflow | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | ||||
| Amortization due | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | 0.3 | ||||
| Memorandum items | ||||||||||||||
| Estimated net additional VAT from higher gas prices 5/ | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||||
| Gas subsidy 6/ | … | 0.0 | 0.2 | … | 0.2 | … | 0.4 | … | 0.8 | 1.2 | ||||
| Financing of gas subsidy from privatization 7/ | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.8 | 0.7 | ||||
| Other privatization proceeds 8/ | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | 0.0 | 0.1 | ||||
| Underlying balance (excl. grants and interest, commitment) | −2.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.9 | −0.6 | −3.5 | −2.0 | −2.4 | ||||
| Primary balance (excl. interest, commitment) | −2.1 | 0.0 | −0.5 | −0.9 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −1.5 | −1.9 | ||||
| Domestic expenditure arrears (stock in billions of drams) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Government and government-guaranteed debt | 24.2 | … | … | … | … | … | … | 22.2 | 21.7 | 16.6 | ||||
| Of which: domestic debt | 2.1 | … | … | … | … | … | … | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | ||||
| Nominal GDP (annual, in billions of drams) | 2,244 | 2,665 | 2,665 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 2,578 | 2,665 | 3,021 | ||||
“Prog.” refers to the program agreed to in November 2006. Relative to the budget, the staff presentation makes the following adjustments: (i) estimated military wages are reclassified from other goods and services to Wages; (ii) external grants, external interest, and external financing are converted at the program exchange rate of AMD 450 per U.S. dollar for 2006 and AMD 357 per U.S. dollar for 2007.
According to the budget.
As the SPA is not included in net claims on central government (NCCG), timing differences between the conversion of SPA funds into domestic currency deposits (which are included in NCCG). and their spending can affect the consistency between the CBA financing in the fiscal accounts and the change in NCCG in the monetary accounts. However, in any quarter the change in the sum of SPA plus NCCG in the monetary accounts equals the sum of CBA plus SPA financing in the fiscal accounts.
The 2007 IMF column includes USD 28 million in PRSC disbursements and the principal portion of debt relief provided by the UK (the interest portion is included in grants).
VAT on the subsidized component of the tariff not paid by consumers.
Projections based on consumption growth for small and large consumers of 15 and 5 percent respectively in 2007 and zero in 2008.
As described in the government decree of 6th April, 2006, N449-N.
As described in the same decree to be paid to the state budget. No payment was incorporated in the 2007 budget.
7. Monetary aggregates grew strongly, but inflation remained subdued. End-of-period inflation increased to 5.2 percent in December 2006, reflecting higher food prices, while average inflation remained below 3 percent. Broad money growth remained high at 33 percent, reflecting monetization and dedollarization (Table 5). Reserve money grew by 41 percent owing to sizable Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) foreign exchange intervention in 2006, totaling US$245 million (equivalent to 56 percent of end-2005 reserve money). To dampen inflationary pressures, the repurchase rate of the CBA was raised by 75 basis points between July and October 2006, to 4.75 percent. It was lowered to 4.5 percent in April 2007 against the backdrop of easing inflationary pressures.
Armenia: Monetary Indicators, December 2006
At program exchange rates, excluding the Special Privatization Account.
Armenia: Monetary Indicators, December 2006
| Dec. 06 | Dec. 06 | |
|---|---|---|
| Prog. | Act. | |
| (In percent) | ||
| 12-month change in reserve money | 25.1 | 41.1 |
| 12-month change in broad money | 27.0 | 32.9 |
| 12-month change in credit to the economy | 41.0 | 28.2 |
| (In millions of USD) | ||
| Net international reserves 1/ | 542.1 | 880.6 |
At program exchange rates, excluding the Special Privatization Account.
Armenia: Monetary Indicators, December 2006
| Dec. 06 | Dec. 06 | |
|---|---|---|
| Prog. | Act. | |
| (In percent) | ||
| 12-month change in reserve money | 25.1 | 41.1 |
| 12-month change in broad money | 27.0 | 32.9 |
| 12-month change in credit to the economy | 41.0 | 28.2 |
| (In millions of USD) | ||
| Net international reserves 1/ | 542.1 | 880.6 |
At program exchange rates, excluding the Special Privatization Account.
Armenia: Monetary Accounts, 2005–07
At program exchange rate of 450 dram per U.S. dollar for 2006 and program exchange rate of 357 dram per U.S. dollar for 2007.
See footnote 3 of Table 4.
At actual exchange rates, excluding the SPA and foreign currency reserve money.
At program exchange rates, excluding the SPA and foreign currency reserve money.
Defined as reserve money minus NIR plus medium- and long-term liabilities (at program exchange rate of 450 dram per U.S. dollar for 2006 and program exchange rate of 357 dram per U.S. dollar for 2007).
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits (in percent).
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money (in percent).
Armenia: Monetary Accounts, 2005–07
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar. | June | Sep. | Dec. | Mar. | June | Sep. | Dec. | |||||||||||||
| Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Proj. 1/ | Proj. 1/ | Proj. 1/ | Proj. 1/ | ||||||||
| Central Bank of Armenia | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 249.9 | 254.4 | 243.2 | 253.0 | 253.6 | 279.3 | 270.5 | 289.9 | 321.8 | 322.3 | 332.5 | 352.7 | 381.4 | |||||||
| Net international reserves | 220.3 | 242.8 | 213.7 | 242.5 | 244.6 | 269.0 | 245.9 | 282.8 | 329.9 | 331.0 | 341.9 | 362.8 | 392.3 | |||||||
| Special privatization account | 38.5 | 20.5 | 38.6 | 20.5 | 17.8 | 19.2 | 32.7 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Medium and long-term | −8.9 | −8.9 | −9.1 | −10.0 | −8.8 | −8.8 | −8.1 | −12.0 | −8.0 | −8.7 | −9.4 | −10.1 | −10.8 | |||||||
| Net domestic assets | −49.4 | −61.4 | −54.1 | −50.3 | −54.5 | −51.1 | −39.4 | −39.0 | −38.8 | −52.2 | −50.5 | −35.5 | −27.1 | |||||||
| Claims on general government (net) 2/ | −17.4 | −39.1 | −22.5 | −27.1 | −35.0 | −22.9 | −25.4 | −9.1 | −57.7 | −47.8 | −46.7 | 44.1 | −43.2 | |||||||
| Of which: central government (net) 2/ | 6.6 | −15.1 | 5.5 | −3.1 | −3.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 10.9 | −16.2 | −6.3 | −5.2 | −2.5 | −1.7 | |||||||
| Claims on banks | 4.0 | 4.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 14.7 | |||||||
| KfW | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 14.7 | |||||||
| Monetary instruments (net) excluding CBA bills | −7.7 | −7.7 | −1.3 | −7.7 | 0.6 | −2.0 | −1.3 | −2.0 | −4.0 | −12.0 | −12.0 | −5.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| CBA bills | −21.2 | −28.4 | −29.1 | −29.6 | −23.9 | −36.9 | −35.0 | −43.9 | −39.0 | −55.9 | −53.7 | −45.7 | −44.4 | |||||||
| Other items (net) | −14.8 | 2.1 | −13.2 | 1.3 | −8.0 | −1.7 | 10.4 | 0.4 | 50.0 | 50.9 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 45.8 | |||||||
| SPA | −38.5 | −20.5 | −38.6 | −20.5 | −17.8 | −19.2 | −32.7 | −19.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Autonomous OIN | 23.7 | 22.6 | 25.4 | 21.8 | 9.8 | 17.4 | 43.0 | 19.5 | 50.0 | 50.9 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 45.8 | |||||||
| Reserve money | 200.6 | 193.0 | 189.1 | 202.7 | 199.1 | 228.2 | 231.1 | 250.9 | 283.0 | 270.1 | 282.0 | 317.2 | 354.3 | |||||||
| Currency issue | 155.3 | 149.4 | 141.3 | 157.2 | 154.4 | 180.0 | 182.9 | 204.0 | 226.8 | 217.5 | 228.2 | 256.8 | 289.0 | |||||||
| Deposits | 45.3 | 43.5 | 47.8 | 45.4 | 44.7 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 47.0 | 56.2 | 52.6 | 53.8 | 60.4 | 65.3 | |||||||
| Banking system | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 275.0 | 271.9 | 270.4 | 269.7 | 261.4 | 283.8 | 280.0 | 293.3 | 332.5 | 327.1 | 333.8 | 350.5 | 375.8 | |||||||
| Net domestic assets | 90.5 | 94.7 | 88.0 | 115.4 | 109.4 | 138.4 | 125.4 | 170.9 | 153.2 | 155.0 | 166.7 | 188.7 | 226.6 | |||||||
| Claims on government (net) | 5.2 | 2.6 | −1.3 | −1.2 | −13.4 | 7.1 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −31.8 | −30.6 | −36.3 | −32.7 | −29.6 | |||||||
| Of which: claims on central government (net) | 29.1 | 26.6 | 26.7 | 22.8 | 18.6 | 25.2 | 28.7 | 35.4 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 12.0 | |||||||
| Claims on rest of the economy | 188.3 | 190.7 | 201.6 | 203.2 | 219.1 | 241.4 | 225.5 | 265.5 | 241.5 | 262.5 | 285.3 | 293.5 | 314.1 | |||||||
| Other items (net) | −102.9 | −98.6 | −112.3 | −86.7 | −96.3 | −88.8 | −96.3 | −90.6 | −56.4 | −76.8 | −82.3 | −72.1 | −57.9 | |||||||
| Broad money | 365.6 | 366.6 | 358.5 | 385.1 | 370.8 | 422.2 | 405.4 | 464.3 | 485.7 | 482.1 | 500.5 | 539.2 | 602.3 | |||||||
| Currency in circulation | 144.3 | 140.4 | 130.3 | 148.2 | 144.3 | 171.0 | 172.7 | 195.0 | 211.5 | 202.5 | 215.2 | 237.8 | 270.0 | |||||||
| Deposits | 221.2 | 226.2 | 228.2 | 236.8 | 226.5 | 251.2 | 232.7 | 269.3 | 274.3 | 279.6 | 285.3 | 301.4 | 332.3 | |||||||
| Domestic currency | 80.5 | 83.2 | 80.6 | 90.5 | 85.2 | 96.7 | 104.2 | 111.4 | 130.9 | 142.2 | 151.7 | 166.6 | 196.8 | |||||||
| Foreign currency | 140.8 | 143.0 | 147.6 | 146.3 | 141.3 | 154.5 | 128.5 | 157.8 | 143.4 | 137.4 | 133.6 | 134.8 | 135.5 | |||||||
| Memorandum items | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Exchange rate (in drams per U.S. dollar, end of period) | 450.2 | … | 450.9 | … | 418.8 | … | 381.5 | … | 363.5 | 362.1 | … | … | … | |||||||
| Program e-rate | … | 450.0 | … | 450.0 | … | 450.0 | … | 450.0 | … | 357.0 | 357.0 | 357.0 | 357.0 | |||||||
| Special privatization account (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 85.6 | 45.6 | 85.8 | 45.6 | 39.7 | 42.6 | 72.6 | 42.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| NIR (in millions of U.S. dollars) 3/ | 439.9 | … | 334.5 | … | 520.4 | … | 544.0 | … | 837.4 | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| NIR (in millions of U.S. dollars) 4/ | 458.4 | 494.6 | 332.3 | 492.0 | 510.4 | 543.9 | 528.0 | 577.2 | 812.2 | 877.6 | 910.6 | 967.8 | 1,050.8 | |||||||
| NDA of the CBA (in billions of drams) 5/ | −42.5 | −40.9 | −15.1 | −29.8 | −54.2 | −32.0 | −49.4 | −19.8 | −115.4 | −52.2 | −50.5 | −35.5 | −27.1 | |||||||
| 12-month change in reserve money (in percent) | 51.9 | 56.1 | 53.0 | 34.4 | 32.0 | 31.3 | 32.9 | 25.1 | 41.1 | 42.8 | 41.6 | 37.2 | 25.2 | |||||||
| 12-month change in broad money (in percent) | 27.8 | 31.5 | 28.6 | 27.0 | 22.2 | 27.0 | 21.9 | 27.0 | 32.9 | 34.5 | 35.0 | 33.0 | 24.0 | |||||||
| 12-month change in private sector credit (in percent) | 32.2 | 35.2 | 42.9 | 31.3 | 41.5 | 44.3 | 34.8 | 41.0 | 28.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.1 | |||||||
| Velocity of broad money (end of period) | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | |||||||
| Money multiplier | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |||||||
| Dollarization in bank deposits 6/ | 63.6 | 63.2 | 64.7 | 61.8 | 62.4 | 61.5 | 55.2 | 58.6 | 52.3 | 49.1 | 46.8 | 44.7 | 40.8 | |||||||
| Dollarization in broad money 7/ | 38.5 | 39.0 | 41.2 | 38.0 | 38.1 | 36.6 | 31.7 | 34.0 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 26.7 | 25.0 | 22.5 | |||||||
| Currency in circulation in percent of deposits | 65.2 | 62.1 | 57.1 | 62.6 | 63.7 | 68.1 | 74.2 | 72.4 | 77.1 | 72.4 | 75.4 | 78.9 | 81.3 | |||||||
| Stock of FCD (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 312.7 | 317.7 | 327.2 | 325.2 | 337.4 | 343.4 | 336.9 | 350.8 | 394.5 | 384.9 | 374.3 | 377.6 | 379.6 | |||||||
| Banking system financing of the central government (cumulative) | 25.2 | −2.5 | −2.4 | −6.4 | −10.5 | −4.0 | −0.4 | 6.2 | −19.4 | 1.2 | −4.5 | −0.9 | 2.3 | |||||||
At program exchange rate of 450 dram per U.S. dollar for 2006 and program exchange rate of 357 dram per U.S. dollar for 2007.
See footnote 3 of Table 4.
At actual exchange rates, excluding the SPA and foreign currency reserve money.
At program exchange rates, excluding the SPA and foreign currency reserve money.
Defined as reserve money minus NIR plus medium- and long-term liabilities (at program exchange rate of 450 dram per U.S. dollar for 2006 and program exchange rate of 357 dram per U.S. dollar for 2007).
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits (in percent).
Ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money (in percent).
Armenia: Monetary Accounts, 2005–07
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar. | June | Sep. | Dec. | Mar. | June | Sep. | Dec. | |||||||||||||
| Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Prog. 1/ | Act. | Proj. 1/ | Proj. 1/ | Proj. 1/ | Proj. 1/ | ||||||||
| Central Bank of Armenia | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 249.9 | 254.4 | 243.2 | 253.0 | 253.6 | 279.3 | 270.5 | 289.9 | 321.8 | 322.3 | 332.5 | 352.7 | 381.4 | |||||||
| Net international reserves | 220.3 | 242.8 | 213.7 | 242.5 | 244.6 | 269.0 | 245.9 | 282.8 | 329.9 | 331.0 | 341.9 | 362.8 | 392.3 | |||||||
| Special privatization account | 38.5 | 20.5 | 38.6 | 20.5 | 17.8 | 19.2 | 32.7 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Medium and long-term | −8.9 | −8.9 | −9.1 | −10.0 | −8.8 | −8.8 | −8.1 | −12.0 | −8.0 | −8.7 | −9.4 | −10.1 | −10.8 | |||||||
| Net domestic assets | −49.4 | −61.4 | −54.1 | −50.3 | −54.5 | −51.1 | −39.4 | −39.0 | −38.8 | −52.2 | −50.5 | −35.5 | −27.1 | |||||||
| Claims on general government (net) 2/ | −17.4 | −39.1 | −22.5 | −27.1 | −35.0 | −22.9 | −25.4 | −9.1 | −57.7 | −47.8 | −46.7 | 44.1 | −43.2 | |||||||
| Of which: central government (net) 2/ | 6.6 | −15.1 | 5.5 | −3.1 | −3.0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 10.9 | −16.2 | −6.3 | −5.2 | −2.5 | −1.7 | |||||||
| Claims on banks | 4.0 | 4.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 14.7 | |||||||
| KfW | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 14.7 | |||||||
| Monetary instruments (net) excluding CBA bills | −7.7 | −7.7 | −1.3 | −7.7 | 0.6 | −2.0 | −1.3 | −2.0 | −4.0 | −12.0 | −12.0 | −5.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| CBA bills | −21.2 | −28.4 | −29.1 | −29.6 | −23.9 | −36.9 | −35.0 | −43.9 | −39.0 | −55.9 | −53.7 | −45.7 | −44.4 | |||||||
| Other items (net) | −14.8 | 2.1 | −13.2 | 1.3 | −8.0 | −1.7 | 10.4 | 0.4 | 50.0 | 50.9 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 45.8 | |||||||
| SPA | −38.5 | −20.5 | −38.6 | −20.5 | −17.8 | −19.2 | −32.7 | −19.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Autonomous OIN | 23.7 | 22.6 | 25.4 | 21.8 | 9.8 | 17.4 | 43.0 | 19.5 | 50.0 | 50.9 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 45.8 | |||||||
| Reserve money | 200.6 | 193.0 | 189.1 | 202.7 | 199.1 | 228.2 | 231.1 | 250.9 | 283.0 | 270.1 | 282.0 | 317.2 | 354.3 | |||||||
| Currency issue | 155.3 | 149.4 | 141.3 | 157.2 | 154.4 | 180.0 | 182.9 | 204.0 | 226.8 | 217.5 | 228.2 | 256.8 | 289.0 | |||||||
| Deposits | 45.3 | 43.5 | 47.8 | 45.4 | 44.7 | 48.2 | 48.2 | 47.0 | 56.2 | 52.6 | 53.8 | 60.4 | 65.3 | |||||||
| Banking system | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net foreign assets | 275.0 | 271.9 | 270.4 | 269.7 | 261.4 | 283.8 | 280.0 | 293.3 | 332.5 | 327.1 | 333.8 | 350.5 | 375.8 | |||||||
| Net domestic assets | 90.5 | 94.7 | 88.0 | 115.4 | 109.4 | 138.4 | 125.4 | 170.9 | 153.2 | 155.0 | 166.7 | 188.7 | 226.6 | |||||||
| Claims on government (net) | 5.2 | 2.6 | −1.3 | −1.2 | −13.4 | 7.1 | −3.8 | −3.9 | −31.8 | −30.6 | −36.3 | −32.7 | −29.6 | |||||||
| Of which: claims on central government (net) | 29.1 | 26.6 | 26.7 | 22.8 | 18.6 | 25.2 | 28.7 | 35.4 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 12.0 | |||||||
| Claims on rest of the economy | 188.3 | 190.7 | 201.6 | 203.2 | 219.1 | 241.4 | 225.5 | 265.5 | 241.5 | 262.5 | 285.3 | 293.5 | 314.1 | |||||||
| Other items (net) | −102.9 | −98.6 | −112.3 | −86.7 | −96.3 | −88.8 | −96.3 | −90.6 | −56.4 | −76.8 | −82.3 | −72.1 | −57.9 | |||||||
| Broad money | 365.6 | 366.6 | 358.5 | 385.1 | 370.8 | 422.2 | 405.4 | 464.3 | 485.7 | 482.1 | 500.5 | 539.2 | 602.3 | |||||||
| Currency in circulation | 144.3 | 140.4 | 130.3 | 148.2 | 144.3 | 171.0 | 172.7 | 195.0 | 211.5 | 202.5 | 215.2 | 237.8 | 270.0 | |||||||
| Deposits | 221.2 | 226.2 | 228.2 | 236.8 | 226.5 | 251.2 | 232.7 | 269.3 | 274.3 | 279.6 | 285.3 | 301.4 | 332.3 | |||||||
| Domestic currency | 80.5 | 83.2 | 80.6 | 90.5 | 85.2 | 96.7 | 104.2 | 111.4 | 130.9 | 142.2 | 151.7 | 166.6 | 196.8 | |||||||
| Foreign currency | 140.8 | 143.0 | 147.6 | 146.3 | 141.3 | 154.5 | 128.5 | 157.8 | 143.4 | 137.4 | 133.6 | 134.8 | 135.5 | |||||||
| Memorandum items | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Exchange rate (in drams per U.S. dollar, end of period) | 450.2 | … | 450.9 | … | 418.8 | … | 381.5 | … | 363.5 | 362.1 | … | … | … | |||||||
| Program e-rate | … | 450.0 | … | 450.0 | … | 450.0 | … | 450.0 | … | 357.0 | 357.0 | 357.0 | 357.0 | |||||||
| Special privatization account (in millions of U.S. dollars) | 85.6 | 45.6 | 85.8 | 45.6 | 39.7 | 42.6 | 72.6 | 42.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| NIR (in millions of U.S. dollars) 3/ | 439.9 | … | 334.5 | … | 520.4 | … | 544.0 | … | 837.4 | … | … | … | … | |||||||
| NIR (in millions of U.S. dollars) 4/ | 458.4 | 494.6 | 332.3 | 492.0 | 510.4 | 543.9 | 528.0 | 577.2 | 812.2 | 877.6 | 910.6 | 967.8 | 1,050.8 | |||||||
| NDA of the CBA (in billions of drams) 5/ | −42.5 | −40.9 | −15.1 | −29.8 | −54.2 | −32.0 | −49.4 | −19.8 | −115.4 | −52.2 | −50.5 | −35.5 | −27.1 | |||||||
| 12-month change in reserve money (in percent) | 51.9 | 56.1 | 53.0 | 34.4 | 32.0 | 31.3 | 32.9 | 25.1 | 41.1 | 42.8 | 41.6 | 37.2 | 25.2 | |||||||
| 12-month change in broad money (in percent) | 27.8 | 31.5 | 28.6 | 27.0 | 22.2 | 27.0 | 21.9 | 27.0 | 32.9 | 34.5 | 35.0 | 33.0 | 24.0 | |||||||
| 12-month change in private sector credit (in percent) | 32.2 | 35.2 | 42.9 | 31.3 | 41.5 | 44.3 | 34.8 | 41.0 | 28.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.1 | |||||||
| Velocity of broad money (end of period) | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | |||||||
| Money multiplier | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |||||||
| Dollarization in bank deposits 6/ | 63.6 | 63.2 | 64.7 | 61.8 | 62.4 | 61.5 | 55.2 | 58.6 | 52.3 | 49.1 | 46.8 | 44.7 | 40.8 | |||||||
| Dollarization in broad money 7/ | 38.5 | 39.0 | 41.2 | 38.0 | 38.1 | 36.6 | 31.7 | 34.0 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 26.7 | 25.0 | 22.5 | |||||||