Union of the Comoros
Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publication Date:
30 Oct 2006
eISBN:
9781451809183
Language:
English
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remittance; government; island government; extent remittance; wage; remittances flow; effects of remittance; remittances to India; inflows of remittance; Comoros's economy; Real exchange rates; Sub-Saharan Africa
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The dominant role of remittances in Comoros’s economy presents policymakers with important challenges and opportunities. Fiscal decentralization is a pillar of national reconciliation in Comoros. To make decentralization work better, more revenue and expenditure responsibilities could be devolved to the islands. The paper also presents statistical data on gross domestic product, indicators of tourism, consolidated government financial operations, breakdown of staffing levels, summary statement of banks, balance of payments, payment arrears and service payments, summary of the tax system, and other economic indices.

Abstract

The dominant role of remittances in Comoros’s economy presents policymakers with important challenges and opportunities. Fiscal decentralization is a pillar of national reconciliation in Comoros. To make decentralization work better, more revenue and expenditure responsibilities could be devolved to the islands. The paper also presents statistical data on gross domestic product, indicators of tourism, consolidated government financial operations, breakdown of staffing levels, summary statement of banks, balance of payments, payment arrears and service payments, summary of the tax system, and other economic indices.

Chapter I: The Role of Remittances in the Comorian Economy1

A. Introduction

1. Comoros’s economy is highly dependent on remittances; their share in national income is among the highest in the world. Following the 1997–2001 secessionist episode, private transfers in the form of remittances replaced official grants as the highest current account inflow to Comoros. In 2005, they were estimated at 18½ percent of GDP, well above exports of goods and services, and more than three times the amount of foreign aid. The share of remittances in current account receipts was almost 50 percent, the largest by far in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

A01ufig01

Remittances are Comoros’s most important balance of payments inflow (averages for 2001-05).

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff estimates.

2. The literature on remittances to developing countries focuses on their causes, their effect on growth, and their relationship with the financial sector. Chami and others (2005) use panel data to show that remittances tend to be countercyclical to GDP growth, suggesting altruistic rather than investment-driven motives. They also note that remittances can become a disincentive for work if they substitute for the labor income of the recipient. Gupta (2005) finds that remittances to India appear to be countercyclical but are also explained by migrants’ earnings. Karpowicz (2005) finds a positive long-run relationship between emigrants’ deposits in Cape Verde and wages in the Euro-area but not with emigrants’ wages in the United States. Bouhga-Hagbe (2004) builds a model that captures the notion of worker attachment to the home country through investment in real estate and finds evidence for that in Morocco. Regarding the effects of remittances, McCormick and Wahba (2000) show in a migration model that overseas employment can be welfare-enhancing when remittances per capita are higher than domestic wages. Giuliano and Ruiz-Arranz (2005) look at the relationship between financial development, remittances, and real growth. Using panel data, they show that in less financially developed countries with borrowing constraints, remittances can promote growth.

A01ufig02

Comoros is among the highest recipients of remittances in sub-Saharan Africa.

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities, World Economic Outlook, and Fund staff calculations.

3. This chapter explores the role of remittances in the Comorian economy. Following recent work by the World Bank (2004), it provides a quantitative analysis of the determinants and effects of remittances. Section B discusses the origins of remittances to Comoros, their transmission channels, and their final uses. Section C discusses determinants for remittances and analyzes their impact on external balances, savings-investment balances, and economic growth. It also assesses whether there is evidence of a possible Dutch-disease effect whereby higher remittances might lead to an overvalued exchange rate and poor export performance. Section D considers the linkages between remittances and the local financial sector. Given data limitation, much of the quantitative analysis is limited to annual time series correlations since 1999, but the chapter also presents time series regressions using monthly data on monetary aggregates, prices, and remittances (Annex I).

B. Tracking the Flow of Remittances and Their Uses

4. Remittances to Comoros mainly come from migrant workers and emigrants in France and the island of Mayotte. 2 It is estimated that between 150,000 to 200,000 people of Comorian origin live outside the Union of the Comoros. The 2003 household census shows that 80 percent of the diaspora lives in Mayotte or France. The others mostly live in Madagascar, Arab countries, and other African countries. Due to wage differentials many Comorians emigrate for work opportunities to support their families at home.

A01ufig03

Comorians migrate seeking higher salaries

(in euro/month).

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities, INSEE (France) and INSEE (Mayotte).

5. Remittances to Comoros come mainly as cash, but also in the form of goods and wire transfers. The Central Bank of Comoros has recently strengthened its historical series on remittances for 1999-2005. It estimates that about two-thirds of remittances flow in as cash, mainly euros. Most of the cash is exchanged into local currency, though some euros are used directly for imports, travel purposes, and “under-the-mattress” savings. The share of remittances via wire transfers through Western Union, after rapid growth in recent years, has reached about one-fourth of total remittances. Remittances that are sent directly in the form of goods (often from Dubai) have also been increasing. The island of Grande Comore (Ngazidja) receives by far the highest share of remittances since Grand Marriage ceremonies—large traditional community-based weddings—have spread across all social classes there, in contrast to the other two islands where the ceremony is limited largely to wealthier citizens.

A01ufig04

Transmission Channels for Remittances to Comoros 1999–2005

(in percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff calculations.

6. Remittances are mainly spent on imported goods, contributing to both poverty reduction and conspicuous consumption. Given the near absence of domestic manufacturing, there is strong demand for a wide variety of consumer imports. With Comoros’s low export earnings, especially after the collapse of international vanilla prices, remittances have become the most important source of cash income for many families, who rely on relatives abroad to help finance consumption other than subsistence agriculture. It is estimated that remittances, which amount to about 70 percent of total imports of goods, finance more than half of all imports to Comoros. As a result, imports and remittances show a strong positive correlation in annual data. By providing a minimum level of consumption, remittances have likely contributed to keeping Comoros’s human development indicators above the regional average, by supporting “muchneeded expenditure on poverty-reducing items: nutrition, shelter, education and health”. 3 Apart from poverty alleviation, anecdotal evidence suggests that a significant share of remittances is also spent on the considerable expenses of Grand Marriage ceremonies.

A01ufig05

Remittances finance a large share of imports consumed by the population.

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff estimates.
A01ufig06

Remittances are transmitted mainly in cash and used for consumption of imported goods.

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff estimates.

C. The Determinants and Macroeconomic Effects of Remittances

7. Altruistic motives are clearly the main reason for remittances to Comoros. As highlighted in the literature, remittances can be driven in part by altruistic motives and in part by investment opportunities. In Comoros, there are few investment opportunities and available data suggests that inflows of remittances tend to be countercyclical rather than correlated with investment.

8. Movements in remittances have recently been negatively correlated with real GDP growth and export performance. The only two years where an increase in remittances was associated with higher GDP growth, 2001 and 2005, were when remittances offset losses in the export sector. These countercyclical patterns support the importance of altruistic motives—especially in times of crisis, like the one caused by the recent plunge in vanilla prices, when Comorians abroad helped their families to smooth consumption.

A01ufig07

Remittances have been countercyclical to GDP and export movements.

(Changes in percentage points of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff calculations.

9. Remittances contribute to a large structural trade deficit, but they also act as a buffer against terms of trade shocks. Comoros’s trade deficit amounted to about 21 percent of GDP in 2005, of which more than two-thirds can be explained by imports financed by remittances. During the 2004/05 vanilla crisis, remittances were a shock absorber, both for household income and for the balance of payments. Gross international reserves have tended to move with remittances in the short term but, because they are eventually absorbed through higher imports, there is no evidence of a longer-term effect (see Section D and Annex I).

A01ufig08

Remittances finance a structural trade deficit.

(in percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Source: Comorian authorities and Fund staff calculations.

10. There is no evidence that remittances have boosted investment, and it is unclear how much they might have contributed to long-term economic growth. The negative correlation of remittances and private investment in recent years suggests that profit motives are relatively unimportant in the Comorian context. Despite anecdotal evidence that remittances are partly used for housing construction, there is a negative correlation between remittances and imports of construction materials in annual time series data, suggesting that the bulk of remittances go into consumer goods. Remittances thus do not appear to contribute much to the country’s long-term capital stock or to its long-term economic growth potential, although it is possible that the impact of remittances on human development indicators, such as education and health, have been positive for long-term growth.

A01ufig09

Remittances contribute little to investment.

(Changes in percentage points of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff calculations.

11. National accounts data show that private savings tend to move with remittances. However, banking deposits are not correlated with remittances in annual data, and monthly time series regression analysis shows that a change in remittances does not cause a statistically significant change in deposits (Annex I). This suggests that most remittances that are saved remain outside the financial system. 4 The reliance on informal savings also underlines the lack of a profit motive for remittances to Comoros, with deposit interest rates at 3 percent, less than one percentage point higher than in France.

A01ufig10

Remittances have moved with private savings since 2002, but there is no clear relationship to banking deposits

(changes in percentage points of GDP).

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff calculations.

12. There is no conclusive evidence of a Dutch-disease effect. Annual changes in remittances have not been strongly correlated with movements in inflation or the real exchange rate. This is consistent with the observation that remittances are used primarily for imports of consumer goods, so they have little impact on demand for domestic goods and services. Remittances may even reduce demand for domestic goods if they finance higher-quality imported substitutes. However, given the large size of remittances, if even a relatively small share is used for domestic goods and services, remittances may have a non-trivial effect on domestic prices, thus keeping the equilibrium real exchange rate higher than it would otherwise be. Using monthly data, there is a weak but positive correlation between short-run movements in remittances on the one hand and monthly changes in the CPI, suggesting a possible, if small, short-run impact on the real exchange rate. However, there appears to be no long-run relationship in the monthly data (Annex I). It should be noted that remittances are indirectly linked with real exchange rate appreciation through a common cause, namely increases in emigration or higher earnings by the diaspora, which both tend to raise domestic wages and remittances.

A01ufig11

No clear evidence for Dutch disease due to remittances.

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Data from Comoros Authorities and Fund staff calculations.

D. The Effect of Remittances on the Financial Sector

A01ufig12

The Financial Transmission of Remittances

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

13. By financing primarily imports, remittances are the source of short-term fluctuations of monetary aggregates, but they are almost fully absorbed in the long term. Most remittances flow into Comoros between June and August, the holiday season in France. This creates a strong seasonality in monetary variables. As shown in the econometric analysis in Annex I, currency in circulation, broad money, and international reserves tend to move strongly with remittances in the short term. By contrast, remittances appear to have little impact on deposits, as discussed above, suggesting that inflows of euros are largely exchanged into domestic cash or saved in euro cash. The co-movement of remittances and monetary aggregates disappears in the long run as the additional liquidity is eventually absorbed through higher imports.

A01ufig13

Remittances are seaonal and cause short-term fluctuations in monetary aggregates

(in monthly percent changes).

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff calculations.

14. Remittances have been a source of liquidity for individuals who are not able to borrow from a bank or microfinance institution. Private sector borrowing is constrained by the monopolistic structure of the banking system. At about 14 percent, interest rates on borrowing are high and there are few lending instruments except for short-term trade credit. Remittances may thus be filling a gap in the underdeveloped financial system, enabling residents to purchase expensive consumer items without resorting to costly bank credit. This is supported by monthly data, which show that during the peak time for remittances, there is also a decline in credit to the private sector (Annex I). Conversely, since a large share of remittances flows into Comoros through informal channels, remittances do not contribute to the development of the financial system and the expansion of formal financial intermediation. Hence, there may be a potentially vicious circle of underdeveloped financial intermediation and high dependence on inflows of cash through remittances.

15. It is not clear to what extent remittances may have helped bail out distressed borrowers. In the third quarter of 2005, remittances increased sharply after the vanilla crisis had led to a strong increase in nonperforming loans in mid-2005. However, as there is otherwise little evidence of co-movement between remittances and bad loans, it is unlikely that remittances have created moral hazard in the local credit market.

A01ufig14

Remittances spiked after an increase in non-performing loans to the vanilla sector in 2005

(in monthly percent changes).

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Sources: Comorian authorities and Fund staff estimates.

E. Conclusions

16. Remittances play a major role in the Comorian economy. This chapter has provided a few stylized facts that can be useful for better understanding broader macroeconomic developments in Comoros:

  • Remittances are mainly transferred based on altruistic motives. They have recently been countercyclical and helped to absorb external shocks.

  • Remittances are spent mostly on imports and do not significantly contribute to investment. Their main impact has been to enhance consumption and improve living conditions, and it is not clear to what extent they may have contributed to long-run economic growth.

  • Comoros’s high trade deficit is largely structural, with more than half the goods imported financed by remittances.

  • There is no clear evidence for a significant Dutch-disease effect, as most remittances are absorbed through imports. However, remittances appear to have at least a weak temporary impact on domestic prices and the real exchange rate.

  • Remittances help to fill gaps in the underdeveloped financial sector, but have so far not contributed to its development.

17. The dominant role of remittances in Comoros’s economy presents policymakers with important challenges and opportunities. One challenge for monetary policy is to develop the analytical and policy tools necessary to react appropriately to short-term fluctuations of reserves and monetary aggregates caused by remittances. Policymakers will also need to prepare for possible structural shifts in remittances. Although the analysis above would suggest that any large increase/decrease in remittances would be partly offset by higher/lower imports, the large size of remittances implies that policy adjustments may be required nevertheless to avoid possible adverse consequences on the balance of payments, inflation, or economic growth. Remittances also present important opportunities for supporting economic development, in line with Comoros’s Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. Specifically, remittances could contribute significantly to long-run economic growth if they were to be directed more toward investment and channeled more through the local financial sector. To achieve this, it will be important to improve the investment climate and to open up the financial sector and product markets for greater competition.

Annex I: Econometric Analysis

This annex analyzes the impact of remittances, using monthly data in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. The aim is to capture how a short-term shock on remittances might affect other variables. In a six-variable SVAR model, the assumption on the ordering of shocks is that changes in remittances affect international reserves and monetary aggregates, which in turn affect inflation and therefore the real exchange rate, and eventually trade credit. The data cover January 1999—December 2005.5 We use four different models by alternating the variable of money aggregates: broad money, currency in circulation, quasi money, and non-cash broad money. 6

The analysis shows that the effect of remittances on broad money and reserves is positive and statistically significant in the short run but dissipates in the long run. We show in the first set of graphs below the impulse response functions to a one standard deviation shock of remittances (about 40 percent) calculated from the SVAR. In the short run, this shock causes a significant positive response of the percent change in the stock of broad money and international reserves instantaneously (more than 1½ percent) that dissipate over three months. When we replace broad money by currency in circulation, similar effects are seen with even higher magnitude, of about 2 percent. However, with quasi-money or banking deposits, the effect is insignificant. This confirms that remittances are mainly used for consumption purposes or hoarding outside the financial system, rather than for savings in the local banking sector.

On the question whether remittances might lead to higher demand of domestic goods and thus inflation, the impulse response function shows no significant effect on the inflation rate (and thus on variations of the real exchange rate), pointing to the lack of evidence of a possible Dutch-disease effect of remittances. Finally, the initial effect on credit is negative and marginally significant (at the 10 percent significance level). This could point to the possible role of remittances as an alternative source of liquidity.

In sum, the SVAR analysis shows a positive short-run effect of remittances on monetary aggregates and international reserves, which dissipates within one quarter. To get an understanding of the long-run relationships of remittances and other variables, we run four bivariate vector error correction models to calculate elasticities to remittances of broad money, reserves, CPI and the real effective exchange rate. The VECM confirm that remittances have no long-run relationship with broad money or reserves, indicating that they are likely absorbed through higher imports. There is also no long-run impact of remittances on prices or on the REER with 12 lags. 7

Elasticities of Selected Variables to Remittances

article image

Significant at 5% significance level.

Source: Fund staff calculations using bivariate VECM.
A01ufig15

Structural Impulse response functions to a one standard deviation shock in monthly change of remittances (95% confidence interval) 1/

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

1/ All variables are in monthly changes. SVAR is calculated based on the following ordering: The assumption on the ordering of shocks is that Remittances growth = > broad money growth = > inflation=> change in REER=> change in trade credit.Source: Fund staff calculations from SVAR model.
A01ufig16

Alternative Impulse response functions to one standard deviation shock in remittances when substituting broad money with first, currency in circulation and second, banking deposits.

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 385; 10.5089/9781451809183.002.A001

Source: Fund staff calculations from SVAR model.

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1

The chapter was prepared by Eza Al-Zein.

2

Mayotte is part of the Comoros archipelago but not of the Union of the Comoros. In referenda in 1974 and 1976 the citizens of Mayotte chose to keep the island a French territory.

4

According to the authorities, the extent of such under-the-mattress hoarding can be estimated by the experience of the conversion of the French franc into euros in 2001, when the equivalent of CF 5 billion (4 percent of GDP and 62 percent of time deposits) was exchanged at the central bank.

5

With a Dickey-Fuller Generalized least square test, all variables (remittances, reserves, money aggregates, CPI, REER and trade credit) are found to be non-stationary in their log-level and with at least one criterion (Schwert or Akaike Information criteria) stationary in their difference (monthly variations). Exogenous dummy variable is added to the system to account for the seasonality during June and December of any year. The Schwert criterion gives one lag as the optimal lag for the SVAR analysis.

6

Broad money net of currency in circulation

7

Although the bivariate relationships for remittances with the CPI and the REER are significant for one lag VECM, both the 12 lags bivariate VECM and the multivariate SVAR does not show any effect in levels and differences.

8

Optimal lag with Schwert criterion.

9

Optimal lag with Akaike Information criterion.

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Table 1.

Comoros: Gross Domestic Product by Sector at Current Market Prices, 2000–05

(In millions of Comorian francs)

article image
Sources: Directorate of Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.

Including import duties and taxes.

REB = real estate business, and STE = services to enterprises.

Table 2.

Comoros: Gross Domestic Product by Sector at 1990 Constant Prices, 2000–05

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Sources: Directorate of Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.

Including import duties and taxes.

REB = real estate business, and STE = services to enterprises.

Table 3.

Comoros: Source and Use of Resources at Current Market Prices, 2000–05

(In millions of Comorian francs)

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Sources: Directorate of Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 4.

Comoros: Source and Use of Resources at 1990 Constant Prices, 2000–05

(In millions of Comorian francs)

article image
Sources: Directorate of Statistics; and Fund staff estimates.
Table 5.

Comoros: Food Crop Production, 2000–05

(In metric tons, unless otherwise indicated)

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Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Ministry of Agricultural Production, Marine Resources, and Environment.
Table 6.

Comoros: Livestock, 2000–05

(In numbers of head)

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Source: Directorate of Breeding, Ministry of Agricultural Production, Marine Resources, and Environment.

The number of cattle declined in 2004 owing to a disease.

Since 1999 data based on new agricultural survey.

Table 7.

Comoros: Production of Meat, Fish, and Dairy Products, 2000–05

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Source: Directorate of Breeding, Ministry of Agricultural Production, Marine Resources, and Environment.
Table 8.

Comoros: Export Crop Production, 2000-

(In metric tons, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Comorian Office of Vanilla; and Directorate of Projects, Ministry of Agricultural Marine Resources, and Environment.
Table 9.

Comoros: Prices of Export Crops, 2000–05

(In Comorian francs per kilogram)

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Sources: Comorian Office of Vanilla; and General Directorate of Customs.

The yield from 5 kilograms of green vanilla is about 1 kilogram of dried vanilla.

Floor prices.

Table 10.

Comoros: Cost Structure of Vanilla Exports, 2001–05

(In Comorian francs per kilogram)

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Sources: Comorian Office of Vanilla; and General Directorate of Customs.Exchange rate Comorian franc per US dollar 549.2725802 521.1204076 437.6105637 404.1871071

The yield from 5 kilograms of green vanilla is about 1 kilogram of dried vanilla.

Includes contributions to the Fonds de Solidarité Vanille (CF1,000/kg). In 2003 it includes a special contribution for social projects of CF 3,232/kg.

For 2004 consists of: 30 tons at $223.7/kg; 8 tons at $140.0/kg; 52 tons at $ 49.5/kg

Table 11.

Comoros: Production and Consumption of Electricity, 2000–05

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Source: Electricity and water company (MAMWE).

The difference between production and consumption reflects power losses and fraud.

Table 12.

Comoros: Indicators of Tourism Activity, 2000–05

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Source: General Directorate of Tourism, Ministry of Transportation and Tourism.

No official data have been provided by the Galawa Hotel.

2003 and 2004 based on Anjouan data.

Includes the Ylang-Ylang, Coelacanthe, and Al Amal hotels.

The Sun Resorts Group includes the Galawa, Maloudja, and Itsandra hotels.

Includes the Kartala, and, since 1986, the Relais de Singali hotels.

Table 13.

Comoros: Indicators of Population, Employment, and Education, 2000–05

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Source: Directorate of Statistics; Ministry of Health, Social Affairs, and Education.

From 2003, data is based on the 2003 population census.

For education, data for 1999 corresponds to the 1998/1999 year.

Includes the training school for teachers. 2004 data is from the University of Comoros, excluding Anjouan.

Table 14.

Comoros: Consumer Price Index (Base Year 1999), 2000–05 1/

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Source: Directorate of Statistics.

Consumer Price Index prior to 2000 not available due to change in the consumption basket in 2000.

Table 15.

Comoros: Prices of Essential Goods, 2000–05 1/

(In Comorian francs per unit, unless otherwise indicated)

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Source: Directorate of Statistics.

Unit values of imports are calculated on the basis of imports, c.i.f.

Average retail price per liter at new stations.

The lower price is the tax-exempt price paid by the electricity and water company.

The higher price is for jet kerosene, sold only to civil aviation.

The rate imposed on households and the industries.

Table 16.

Comoros: Consolidated Government Financial Operations, 2000–05

(In millions of Comorian francs, unless otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.