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© 2006 International Monetary Fund
August 2006
IMF Country Report No. 06/315
Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues
This Selected Issues paper for the Republic of Belarus was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 20, 2006. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of the Republic of Belarus or the Executive Board of the IMF.
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Front Matter Page
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
Selected Issues
Prepared by Marco Rossi (EUR) and Kristian Hartelius (ICM)
Approved by the European Department
July 20, 2006
Contents
I. Common and Idiosyncratic Determinants of Inflation
A. Introduction
B. Methodology and Data
C. Generalized Dynamic Factor Model Results
D. Forecast
E. Conclusions and Areas of Further Analysis
References
Figures
1. Inflation in 12 Eastern European and Transition Countries, 2002–05
2. Cumulative Data Variability Explained by the First Ten Commission Factors
3. Measures of Headline CPI Inflation, 2001–05
4. Measures of Inflation for CPI Components, 2001–05
5. Actual Inflation and Inflation Forecasts, 2001–06
Tables
1. Inflation Variance
2. Inflation Persistence: Half Life
3. Difference between Common and Actual Inflation, 2001–05
Contents
II. The Impact on Growth of Terms-of-Trade Fluctuations
A. Introduction
B. Previous Literature
C. Methodology
D. Data
E. Empirical Analysis
F. Conclusions and Policy Implications
References
Figures
1. Average Growth and Terms-of-Trade Changes in the ECA Region, 1990–2004
2. Terms of Trade and Real GDP in the ECA Region, Index, 1989=100
3. Average Openness by Region, Exports plus Imports as percent of GDP
4. Average Regulatory Quality by Region
Tables
1. Fixed Effects Regressions of GDP Growth on the Terms of Trade and Control Variables
Appendix Tables
1. Countries in the Sample
2. Data Sources and Definitions of the Variables Used in the Economic Analysis