Paraguay: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module Response by the Authorities

The country lacks an integrated statistical framework that would take account of the various analytical and accounting linkages across macroeconomic statistics, and the relationships between regulatory tools, intermediate objectives, and policy goals. There is significant room to improve the methodological soundness, accuracy, and reliability of the statistics, for instance, by expanding the data sources for most sectors, as well as by strengthening data validation and statistical techniques for most datasets. Paraguay should improve the access to official statistics and metadata.

Abstract

The country lacks an integrated statistical framework that would take account of the various analytical and accounting linkages across macroeconomic statistics, and the relationships between regulatory tools, intermediate objectives, and policy goals. There is significant room to improve the methodological soundness, accuracy, and reliability of the statistics, for instance, by expanding the data sources for most sectors, as well as by strengthening data validation and statistical techniques for most datasets. Paraguay should improve the access to official statistics and metadata.

I. Introduction

1. We appreciate the opportunity to provide comments on the ROSC data module. We collaborated closely with the data module ROSC mission and agree with the thrust of the mission’s recommendations. Bellow are comments from the Central Bank of Paraguay (CBP) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) on the five datasets assessed during the mission.

II. Response to theMission’s Assessment Statistics

A. National Accounts Statistics

2. Regarding the prerequisites of quality, we agree with the mission’s assessment that more human and computational resources are needed for an efficient conduct of the work being carried out in national accounts.

3. With respect to the methodological soundness, we share the mission’s view on the need to estimate quarterly GDP and to compile an integrated economic account for the whole economy and the rest of the world accounts, in order to meet the ISWGNA’s minimum requirements for the implementation of the 1993 SNA. We want to highlight that the Central Bank’s division responsible for national accounts has asked for internships with the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in order to get acquainted with their experience in compiling quarterly GDP. Work is already in progress to compile basic statistics to obtain an integrated economic account. To reactivate the compilation of supply and use tables, it is necessary first to improve the basic statistics through an economic census and annual surveys, as well as increase the human resources.

4. We agree with the mission’s recommendation to conduct the programmed economic census and establish a regular program of economic surveys covering manufacture, trade, and service activities to improve the accuracy and reliability of the national accounts.

5. Finally, regarding serviceability and accessibility, we agree with the mission’s recommendations to improve the timeliness of data dissemination, make public a release calendar, and update the metadata available on the CBP’s website and the IMF’s Data Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). We plan to implement these recommendations in the short-run.

B. Price Statistics

6. We broadly agree with the mission’s assessment for all data quality indicators of the consumer price index and the producer price index, as well as with its recommendations to improve their compilation.

7. We have some comments regarding the statistical techniques described under accuracy and reliability. As the mission points out, missing prices are not imputed and the CPI weights exclude the imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings or dwellings used by third parties for which no payments are made. The mission’s recommendation to impute missing prices aims at adjusting the average price, which is a by-product that needs not to be published, and perhaps to adjust price relatives when an item has temporarily disappeared from the market. Regarding imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings, the concept was excluded from the calculation because the objective of the CPI is to measure inflation from a monetary point of view; a criterion also followed by other countries of MERCOSUR and also by Chile.

C. Government Finance Statistics

8. We agree in general with the content of the section on government finance statistics. Regarding the prerequisites of quality, we want to highlight weaknesses in the statistical legislation, which are important obstacles to obtain better GFS.

9. The report indicates that the methodological soundness is affected because data on the operations of the local governments are not included in GFS. This situation arises from a constitutional issue, since the article 166 of the Constitution grants the municipalities with autonomy and autarky in the management of their resources. This constitutional concession is used by the local governments to exclude themselves from the national budget administered by the MOF; this way the gathering of local governments’ data result being negatively affected.

D. Monetary Statistics

10. We share the thrust of the mission’s assessment on monetary statistics, which was written in close consultation with staff of the Monetary Studies Division of the CBP. We acknowledge the mission’s recommendation to hire a research assistant at the Monetary and Financial Studies Department in order to ensure efficient use of resources as one prerequisite of quality.

11. Moreover, we agree with the mission that the lack of coverage of deposit-taking cooperatives (credit unions and production cooperatives) greatly impairs the methodological soundness of monetary statistics and underestimates broad money. In this respect, we want to point out that the CBP is currently in consultations with the National Institute of Cooperatives (INCOOP) to request regular reporting from the twenty largest credit unions and the twenty largest production cooperatives, which together account for approximately 85 percent of the assets and liabilities of the deposittaking cooperatives.

E. Balance of Payments Statistics

12. We fully agree with the content of the mission’s assessment on balance of payments statistics and, therefore, do not have any specific comment on any of the six data dimensions.

III. Action Plan

13. Based on the ROSC’s recommendations, and in collaboration with the mission, we have designed an action plan to further increase the analytical usefulness of Paraguay’s statistics. This plan will be very useful to guide the future work in the national compiling agencies and also to guide the work of international organizations and donors in the statistics field. In particular, we count with the support of the IMF—among other international organizations and donor countries—to carry out the proposed actions.

14. A detailed action plan is presented in the attached tables, which include cross-cutting actions as well as measures specific to each data set. It should be noted that not all actions included in this plan have the same importance or priority, and that at times they are conditional upon the reassignment of resources, funding, training, or technical assistance.

15. The most immediate tasks that would require technical assistance from the IMF encompass actions to: (i) compile an integrated economic account for the total economy and the rest of the world accounts according to ISWGNA; (ii) formulate a plan to update the national accounts’ reference year; (iii) update the CPI and PPI basket of goods; (iv) prepare a plan to compile a new CPI with 2007 as the reference year; (v) reconcile fiscal and monetary statistics; (vi) include the savings and loan cooperatives in the other depository corporations survey; (vii) design and conduct sample surveys to capture data for items currently excluded from balance of payments statistics or items not appropriately covered; and (viii) review and update the statistical techniques to estimate unrecorded trade.

A. Cross-cutting Actions

High Priority Actions

  • Give higher priority to statistical functions in the data-compiling agencies, and promote actively the adoption of a new National Statistics Law and a national statistical plan.

  • Provide adequate financial, staff, and computer resources, as well as targeted training, for statistical activities.

  • Strengthen data sources across all datasets, including the conduct of surveys and censuses.

Other Key Actions

  • Establish regular mechanisms for enhancing intersectoral data consistency.

  • Establish regular procedures to consult with users to help identify emerging data requirements and to obtain feedback on the relevance of official statistics.

  • Adopt advance release calendars for all statistics.

  • Strengthen data revision policies and practices and make them known to the public.

  • Enhance data and metadata accessibility of all datasets, including the formats for disseminating the data.

  • Provide sector-specific contact information for all datasets.

  • Reassess the treatment of multiterritory enterprises (e.g., Itaipú and Yacyretá) in line with the ongoing discussions in the context of the 1993 SNA/BPM5 review.

B. National Accounts Statistics

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C. Consumer Price Index

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D. Producer Price Index

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E. Government Finance Statistics

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F. Monetary Statistics

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G. Balance of Payments Statistics

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