Niger: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Data Module, Response by the Authorities, Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

Niger’s overall macroeconomic statistics is a picture of contrasts. Establishing the National Statistical Institute (INS) and giving it a clear and precise mandate is a step in the right direction. Accuracy and reliability suffer from the weakness of data sources, notably in national accounts and price statistics. Niger meets the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) periodicity recommendations but falls below these recommendations for the timeliness of dissemination. The paper provides a summary of assessment by IMF staff and their recommendations.

Abstract

Niger’s overall macroeconomic statistics is a picture of contrasts. Establishing the National Statistical Institute (INS) and giving it a clear and precise mandate is a step in the right direction. Accuracy and reliability suffer from the weakness of data sources, notably in national accounts and price statistics. Niger meets the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) periodicity recommendations but falls below these recommendations for the timeliness of dissemination. The paper provides a summary of assessment by IMF staff and their recommendations.

I. Overall Assessment

1. Niger has participated in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) since February 26, 2002 and posts its metadata on the IMF’s Data Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Appendix I provides an overview of Niger’s dissemination practices compared to the GDDS.

2. This ROSC data module contains the following main observations. Niger’s overall macroeconomic statistics is a picture of contrasts. On one hand, the harmonized consumer price index (HCPI), monetary, and balance of payments statistics, which have been developed for the most part within a regional framework, are collected and compiled under relatively favorable conditions. They reflect in part the substantial means at the disposal of the BCEAO. On the other hand, the national accounts and government finance statistics suffer from a chronic lack of resources in the compiling agencies, which also lack a clear strategic vision. The 2004 legislation that, among other things, establishes the National Statistical Institute (INS) and gives it a clear and precise mandate is a step in the right direction, and this legislation should be fully implemented and emulated in the case of fiscal sector data. Other benefits of the legislation should include an improved identification of responsibilities between statistics-producing agencies, a strengthening of resources, and enhanced coordination. These improvements would allow compilers to better respond to users’ needs by enhancing the serviceability of real sector statistics and other statistical products. Generally speaking, resource constraints hamper the development and implementation of work programs, with the possible exception of monetary statistics. Statistical coordination is not always effective because the former National Committee on Statistics was not operational and the new National Council on Statistics (CNS) is not yet operational and not in a position to promote real cooperation among the various agencies that produce macroeconomic statistics. While underlying concepts and definitions usually conform to international standards, the scopes of price and government finance statistics and the classification of national accounts and monetary statistics are weak. Accuracy and reliability suffer from the weakness of data sources, notably in national accounts and price statistics. Each data-producing agency should pay greater attention to improving the serviceability of its statistical products. Dissemination practices across all data-producing agencies focus primarily on a limited circle of known users, neglecting the public at large, with the possible exception of price statistics. For most published data, Niger meets the GDDS periodicity recommendations but falls below these recommendations for the timeliness of dissemination. Section II provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-part scale, followed by mission recommendations in Section III. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents.

3. The remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions. The presentation is undertaken at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions and across datasets for the remaining four dimensions.

4. Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity:

  • The statistical legislation adopted in 2004 is scheduled to be fully implemented in 2005. The legal framework regulating Niger’s statistical system is thus in a transitional period, and the following ordinance and decree remain the main legal points of reference: the 1993 Ordinance creating the National Committee on Statistics and regulating coordination, reporting obligations, and secrecy in statistical surveys, and the 1994 Decree on the powers and organization of the MEF’s Statistical and National Accounts Directorate (DSCN).3 The 1994 Decree gives the DSCN the mandate to collect, compile, organize, and disseminate the official statistics of Niger and organize its activities. The 2004 texts are more precise in defining these responsibilities. Within the 1993 legal framework, the DSCN has primary responsibility for a wide range of statistics and takes a leading role in compiling the national accounts and prices statistics. The CNS is not operational, and coordination between agencies is therefore at best informal. Relevance could be improved by systematically assessing users’ needs. Resource constraints, which impose trade-offs between quality dimensions, will need to be addressed before a complete statistics program can be considered. Quality improvement processes need to be introduced along with a culture that emphasizes professionalism. Quality objectives focus on taking steps to eliminate weaknesses only at the time they are identified. The DSCN’s status and its financial dependence on the government budget limits its autonomy, though statistics seem to be produced impartially. Ethical standards are covered by general civil service regulations, but no specific code of conduct exists other than statistical secrecy rules. A public announcement of privileged access to statistics by government officials would enhance transparency. Overall, the DSCN has only a partial view of quality, with insufficient attention being paid to the serviceability and accessibility dimensions.

  • Except for public debt statistics, the responsibility of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) for compiling government finance statistics (GFS) is not formally defined by law but is rather derived from various texts regulating public accounting and the budget. The MEF’s General Directorate for the Economy (DGE) compiles data on Government Financial Operations (TOFE), broadly according to regional standards laid out in a WAEMU statistical directive, using source data from various MEF units and the BCEAO National Directorate for Niger (DNN). No legal document requires transmission of source data to the DGE, and reporting delays can thus be significant. Severe staffing and material constraints in the DGE impede preparation of the TOFE. Debt data are prepared by the Public Debt Directorate under a MEF instruction (Arrêté). TOFE and debt data are produced for a very limited circle of users and are not disseminated by the MEF. Users other than official users are not consulted on ways to improve the relevance of statistics. The nature of the source data (accounting and other administrative records) and the public accountant’s professional standards contribute to data integrity. The civil service code of conduct establishes clear guidelines for professional behavior. The fact that MEF officials have advance access to the data for their internal needs is not publicized.

  • The BCEAO is responsible for monetary and balance of payments statistics. Its legal mandate derives from the Treaty establishing the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU), the BCEAO statutes and banking legislation, together with a WAEMU regulation regarding balance of payments statistics. However, as they relate to the monetary survey, these provisions apply only at the regional level and not to individual Member States. Responsibilities are distributed between Headquarters, in charge of methodology and data collection at the regional level, and the DNN for compilation at the country level. The improvement of statistical quality is a steady priority of the BCEAO, as evidenced by efforts to adhere to international standards, such as migration to the IMF’s Balance of Payments Statistics Manual, 5th edition (BPM5), the holding of seminars, and the recent allocation of additional resources for monetary statistics. However, the BCEAO’s statistical resources could be distributed in a more balanced way; in 2004 a new staff member for monetary statistics was added, but staffing for the balance of payments statistics is still inadequate. The integrity of statistics appears to be firmly established by the BCEAO statutes, which give it legal independence from government, particularly in recruitment and promotion matters. Transparency would be enhanced, however, by public notification of privileged access to statistics. Staff are informed of the importance of ethical standards, mainly through the 2003 Personnel Charter, which was accompanied by a letter on the subject from the Governor.

5. Methodological soundness. As already mentioned, Niger is a member of the WAEMU, which has a Commission as its executive body and the BCEAO as its common central bank. The concepts and methods of member countries’ macroeconomic statistics are increasingly being determined by these regional bodies, with a view to promoting and monitoring economic convergence. Thus, in addition to the long-standing harmonized approach to monetary and balance of payments statistics practiced by the BCEAO, the WAEMU Commission has issued directives over the past several years aimed at harmonizing statistics for the national accounts (1998), government finance (1997–99), and the harmonized consumer price index (HCPI), (1997). These statistics are broadly in conformity with international guidelines. The national accounts follow the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA), but have not adopted all of its recommendations. The Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HCPI) methodology is broadly consistent with internationally accepted practices but its geographical scope is limited to the city of Niamey. Government finance statistics compiled in the TOFE are broadly consistent with A Government Finance Statistics Manual, 1986 (GFSM 1986) but their institutional coverage falls short of the manual’s recommendations and of the WAEMU directive. No migration path to the Manual on Government Finance Statistics 2001 (GFSM 2001) is in place. The monetary statistics are generally based on the Guide to Money and Banking Statistics in IFS (1984 Guide) but uses an incomplete sectorization of assets and liabilities. Implementation of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM) has started, but without a precise timetable. The balance of payments statistics are compiled in conformity with the BPM5.

6. Accuracy and reliability. All data sets are affected in various degrees by limitations and inadequacies in their respective source data. National accounts data originate essentially from administrative sources, with many shortcomings, and the household and informal sector surveys are not up-to-date. The unavailability of certain data sources forces the DSCN to use some questionable statistical techniques for the treatment of some national accounts operations. Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated from the production and expenditure approach but is based on largely obsolete ratios for many line items. Deflators are mostly derived from the HCPI, in the absence of more appropriate price indices. The accuracy of the HCPI is adversely affected by an outdated household expenditure survey that covers only three months of consumption and is thus subject to a seasonal bias. Data for the TOFE, although based on disparate sources, appear to be broadly accurate and reliable. They could be further improved by archiving of preliminary data and by conducting revision studies. The source data for monetary statistics are generally reliable, though they may be reported late. However, the free circulation of banknotes within countries of the zone complicates the estimation of currency in circulation. Although the survey response rate is low, the source data for the balance of payments are adequate. The above-mentioned difficulties owing to banknote circulation among WAEMU countries can complicate the estimation of gross external assets. GDP validation possibilities are limited because the same calculation method is used for estimates and final data. No revision studies are conducted for national accounts statistics and poor archiving practices preclude the conduct of such studies for GFS. Monetary statistics are generally not subject to revisions. While balance of payments data are revised. preliminary data and revisions studies are provided to official users only.

7. Serviceability of the disseminated data is generally inadequate. Except for GFS, the periodicity of dissemination conforms to GDDS recommendations, but the timeliness of the national accounts, GFS, balance of payments, and monetary statistics falls short of GDDS recommendations. Consistency standards are met by the datasets other than the national accounts and government finance. There is a need to introduce, institutionalize, and publicize revision policy and practice for all datasets. Macroeconomic statistics are for the most part designed for a restricted circle of official users and the needs of the general public are not monitored or inadequately so. All these statistics are available in the form of long time series. Revision studies, if any, are not published.

8. Accessibility. The DSCN’s dissemination efforts are impeded by a lack of resources. National accounts are not accessible to all on an equal basis. Most GFS are available on request only, but the public is not so notified. Apart from the HCPI, the balance of payments, and to a lesser extent national accounts, macroeconomic statistics are disseminated without commentary. Metadata are generally not accessible in French. Contact information is limited to the IMF’s DSBB. No link exists between official websites (DSCN, BCEAO, and IZF) and the DSBB. The DSCN and the BCEAO publish a catalog of their publications. Assistance to users is insufficient for all datasets other than prices.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

9. Assessment of the quality of the five macroeconomic datasets (national accounts, consumer price index, government finance, monetary, and external sector statistics) were conducted in accordance with the DQAF. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements, using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ac. For each statistical dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) is shown in Tables 3ae.

Table 1.

Niger: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results

article image
Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.
Table 2a.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Directorate of Statistics and National Accounts

article image
Table 2b.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—BCEAO

article image
Table 2c.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Economy and Finance

article image
Table 3a.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

article image
Table 3b.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Consumer Price Index

article image
Table 3c.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

article image
Table 3d.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

article image
Table 3e.

Niger: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

article image

III. Staff Recommendations

10. Based on the review of Niger’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission made recommendations. They are designed to increase further Niger’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of Niger’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

Cross-cutting Recommendations

Short term

  • Complete adoption of the new legislative and regulatory provisions in statistics.

  • Adopt a strategy for statistical development that will incorporate this report’s recommendations and GDDS improvement plans. Identify corresponding measures and quantify them with a view to seeking support from donors.

  • Increase human resources for all three agencies.

  • Promote in compiling agencies a culture of serviceability aimed at the general public and conduct regular users’ surveys, and

  • Post GDDS metadata in French on the Internet and inform the public of this.

Medium term

  • Draw up and implement a “statistics master plan” (schéma directeur de la statistique) as a medium-term program for statistical activities and for raising INS resources.

  • Draft and publish comprehensive sources and methods notes as necessary, and revisions studies.

  • Complete the work underway on the improvement of the coefficients for sorting out banknotes stocks in the BCEAO zone, and

  • Reduce dissemination lags to bring timeliness into conformity with the GDDS standards.

National Accounts

Short term

  • Complete the ongoing overhaul of the national accounts (1993 SNA) using the ERE/TES module, and

  • Prepare and publish methodological notes on national accounts preparation.

Medium term

  • Develop more appropriate deflators and a producer price index, and

  • Request technical and financial support to improve source data and conduct surveys for updating the basis for estimating the informal sector and household consumption.

  • Review methodology used by the DSCN to estimate GDP (in the light of conflicting statistical series used for monitoring the IMF-supported programs). This could be made through a Fund’s TA mission to the DSCN.

  • Compile quarterly economic indicators (e.g., manufacturing, agriculture, etc., as well as producer prices).

Consumer Price Index

Short term

  • Conduct a household expenditure survey covering an adequate time frame and coverage.

Medium term

  • Broaden the HCPI’s geographical coverage beyond the city of Niamey and plan the preparation of a national price index.

Government Finance Statistics

Short term

  • Formalize in a text the DGE’s responsibility for compiling a comprehensive set of government finance statistics.

  • Increase the DGE’s human and material resources, and

  • Post TOFE and debt data and metadata on the WAEMU Commission website.

Medium term

  • Implement more fully the WAEMU directive on the TOFE, and extend coverage, and

  • Develop a plan to adopt GFSM 2001, in consultation with the WAEMU Commission.

Monetary Statistics

Short term

  • Advise NIS readers that there is an Internet site for the BCEAO (www.bceao.int).

  • Provide advance notice on the BCEAO Internet site of forthcoming changes in the periodicity and timeliness of dissemination in the NIS.

  • Prepare and disseminate a release calendar.

  • Accelerate publication of the BCEAO’s balance sheet and separate the publication of central bank statistics from the publication of banks and other financial institutions statistics.

Medium term

  • Expedite the plan to integrate the available annual databases on the decentralized financial system into the core annual monetary and financial statistics.

  • Establish a comprehensive and detailed subsectorization and classification of the nonfinancial public sector, consistent with the MFSM, and

  • Undertake a revision study using the outcome of the working group on application of coefficients for sorting banknote stocks in the zone.

External Sector Statistics

Short term

  • Define a methodology for adjusting official trade data to account for informal trade, and

  • Increase the rate of response to questionnaires.

Medium term

  • Increase human resources in order to improve the currentness and reliability of the BOP estimates.

  • Make bank settlement reporting more timely and reliable so that quarterly balance of payments statistics can be produced and published.

Table 4.

Niger: Overview of Current Practices Regarding Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data Compared to the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS)

(Based on GDDS Metadata Posted on DSBB)

article image
Italics indicate encouraged categoriesNote: (D) daily; (W) weekly; (M) monthly; (Q) quarterly; and (A) annual; (DD) Domestic debt; (FD) Foreign debtSource: DSBB, Table II. Metadata last updated January 2003
1

This Directorate is part of the Ministry of Economy and Finance.

2

Niger is a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and takes part in the activities of the Union’s institutions, particularly its Commission and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). At the time of this mission, the WAEMU’s own website (www.uemoa.int) was not always readily accessible; however, the website of the franc zone (www.izf.net) provides information about the WAEMU and its member countries.

3

The INS was formally established in mid-2005. However, because this report reflects the situation as of the time of the ROSC mission, reference continues to be made to the DSCN.