Efficiency and equity reasons suggest placing a high priority on ensuring that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path. This chapter has sought to estimate the sustainable long-term non-oil primary deficit and the optimal adjustment path toward that level. The banks’ inability to monitor effectively the quality of their loan portfolios, paired with the high interest-rate floor on deposits, are key factors behind the very low degree of financial intermediation. The reform of fuel price subsidies in Gabon is necessary to facilitate pro-poor economic growth.

Abstract

Efficiency and equity reasons suggest placing a high priority on ensuring that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path. This chapter has sought to estimate the sustainable long-term non-oil primary deficit and the optimal adjustment path toward that level. The banks’ inability to monitor effectively the quality of their loan portfolios, paired with the high interest-rate floor on deposits, are key factors behind the very low degree of financial intermediation. The reform of fuel price subsidies in Gabon is necessary to facilitate pro-poor economic growth.

V. Gabon: Assessing the Quality of Public Investment 54

A. Introduction

Despite an abundance of fiscal resources through the years, Gabon has to date had little success in raising growth and reducing poverty. Real per capita non-oil growth has been negative in every year from 1998 through 2003 and has been close to zero since then. This poor performance is particularly surprising given large budgetary appropriations for the public investment program (PIP). Over the last 15 years, Gabon’s public investment program has averaged 5 percent of GDP. Capital spending exceeded 10 percent of GDP in the late 1990s during presidential elections.

The paper examines why despite the large quantity of resources allocated to the PIP, the quality of expenditure has been disappointing. The paper uses international comparisons to assess the efficiency of resources devoted to public investments in terms of results in key social variables. Secondly, it analyzes the degree to which the PIP has been directed towards the types of poverty-reducing projects described in the recently completed GPRSP. Thirdly, it presents the findings of a private-sector audit on the quality of so-called fêtes tournantes investment—which accounts for about one-third of the total investment budget.55

The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section B explains the methodology used in other countries to measure public investment efficiency and the approach followed in this note; Section C discusses Gabon’s capital expenditure trends; Section D analyzes the efficiency of public investment in Gabon; Section E compares PIP projects with the priorities in the recently completed PRSP; Section F focuses on the largest part of the PIP, the socalled fêtes tournantes investment; and Section G concludes.

B. Measuring The Efficiency of Public Investment

Several techniques can be used to measure the efficiency of public spending. For instance, Gupta and Verhoeven (2001) use an approach that establishes a production possibility frontier that represents best practices within a sample of observations. Measuring the relative inefficiency of producers inside that frontier in terms of distance to the frontier, they show that, on average, countries in Africa are less efficient than countries in Asia and the Western Hemisphere. They also suggests that improvements in educational attainment and health output in African countries require more than simply higher budgetary allocations.

Herrera and Pang (2005) used also a production possibility frontier approach to score a sample of 140 countries on several health and education output indicators using data from 1996 to 2002. Gabon scored high in primary school enrollment, but low in other education and health variables. The table below reports part of their results grouped by countries with similar GDP per capita in dollar terms and other countries with lower GDP per capita.

Table V.1.

Efficiency Score for Investment(Output Efficiency)

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Source: Herrera and Pang (2005).

The approach used in this note is to compare budgetary allocations and variables on the three main social sectors across countries, drawing on Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability in Gabon (PEMFAR) from the World Bank.56

C. Capital Expenditure Trends

PIP performance over the years has been disappointing. Through the 1970s and the 1980s capital outlays increased steeply, as a strategy was implemented to modernize and diversify the economy. The government embarked on an ambitious program of large infrastructure projects. At the center of the strategy stood the construction of the Transgabonese railroad and large agro-industrial parastatals. Public investment surged from less than 4 percent of GDP in the early 1970s to about 30 percent of GDP in the mid-1980s. However, this first wave of ambitious public investment was accompanied by substantial weaknesses in the design and execution of the strategy. For instance, soon after the Transgabonese was completed it needed government operating subsidies, and the agro-industries yielded negative returns on investment because they were in remote locations, where transportation costs were high and labor in short supply.

Figure V.1.
Figure V.1.

Gabon. Capital Expenditure

(Percent of GDP)

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 232; 10.5089/9781451813999.002.A005

Source: Gabonese authorities.

The PIP has mimicked the booms and boosts associated with international oil prices. In the context of the decline in oil prices during the early 1990s the PIP was severely curtailed to less than 5 percent of GDP. This reflected the government’s strategy of internal adjustment, which was supported by Fund arrangements. However, as oil prices rose in 1997 and 1998, also years when elections were held, the PIP rose again to more than 10 percent of GDP.

In the recent years, about one-third of the PIP has been devoted to so-called fêtes tournantes expenditure. The fêtes tournantes were re-established in 2001 after a long period of inactivity.57 President Bongo announced that beginning in 2002, two provinces a year would be favored by a budgetary allocation of CFAF 25 billion each for projects to improve local welfare. The allocations amount to about one-third of the capital investment budget. The allocation within the provinces would depend on their particular needs. The projects would be inaugurated on August 17 to celebrate Gabon’s independence (August 17, 1960).58

D. The Efficiency of Public Investment in Gabon.

In the health sector, Gabon’s expenditures would appear to have been comparatively ineffective, mainly because of poor allocative efficiency and regional inequity. Gabon has a relative high spending per capita on health yet by international comparisons health indexes are worse than in peer countries. The infant mortality rate in Gabon at 60 per 1000 infants is high compared with other countries with similar levels of health and spending per capita, for instance Morocco has a rate of only 39 per 1000; or Ghana spending only one third of what Gabon spends has a lower rate. Life expectancy at 54.5 years is low compared with Ghana, Morocco, Libya, Peru, and Jamaica, with lower spending per capita. Also in terms of physicians the country lags behind its peers.

Table V.2.

Health Indexes

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Source: United Nations Development Program. Human Development Report 2005.

Capital investment in the health sector in Gabon does not respond to the country’s priorities, which may explain the poor outcomes (Figure V.2). According to the World Bank, investment in health should be directed to improving the primary care and secondary delivery system of 413 dispensaries, 41 health centers, and 9 regional hospitals spread across Gabon. Instead, the trend has been to invest in tertiary care—centrally managed facilities and programs. The construction of the military hospital in Libreville in 2005 and the decision to build more hospitals in 2006 confirms this trends.59 Not only does this ignores priorities, it also entails unplanned high recurrent costs, which are making a permanent dent in the budget.

Figure V.2.
Figure V.2.

Gabon. Health Expenditures

Citation: IMF Staff Country Reports 2006, 232; 10.5089/9781451813999.002.A005

Source: Gabonese authorities.

Primary health programs have been neglected. Primary health programs account for less than 6 percent of the total health budget. This is inefficient in terms of both outcomes and costs, because the unit cost of providing primary care is low and is closely associated with delivering health services to the poor. At this stage any health budget should entail a reorientation of investment within the health sector to allocate more to primary care.

International comparisons with countries with similar levels of per capita income show that Gabon’s educational expenditures are not efficient, either. Though Gabon allocates a substantial share of public spending to education, adult literacy in 2002 was lower than in most countries with similar per capita public spending on education.60 Because Gabon’s repetition rates are relatively high,61 many students are spending more time than necessary at school. Moreover, a large proportion of the recurrent budget is devoted to scholarships for higher education, an allocation that often does not respond to job market requirements.

Table V.3.

Education Indexes.

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Source: United Nations Development Program. Human Development Report 2005.

As with health, the problems of educational performance in Gabon reflect the bias of education expenditures towards the secondary and tertiary levels. In 2002-04 about 70 percent of the investment budget went to secondary and tertiary education. While investment in tertiary education increased by 233 percent for the period, investment in primary education only increased by 29 percent. This is inefficient; it is cheaper to educate a child in primary school than in secondary or tertiary establishments. Moreover, much of the current spending in education is allocated to scholarships for secondary and higher education, and in particular foreign scholarships.

For infrastructure, the budgeted allocations have not achieved the desired results. Investment in infrastructure is affected by at least three key problems:(i) poor project evaluation, which usually means unrealistic budgetary allocations; (ii) high construction costs—roads have cost more than twice as much as originally planned; and (iii) poor maintenance, which means that the road network continuously deteriorates. The road fund intended for maintenance has been used to finance large-scale construction and rehabilitation projects. The road sector has incurred large debts and some projects were discontinued after substantial spending.

E. Public Investment Versus PRSP Priorities

How efficient has the PIP been in achieving GPRSP objectives in health, education, and infrastructure?

The primary objectives established in the GPRSP are as follows: (i) reduce unemployment, (ii) stop the decline of the rural economy, (iii) improve access to basic social services, (iv) revitalize social protection nets, (v) improve the livelihoods of the poor, (vi) promote gender integration, and (vii) improve governance.

Assessing past spending in light of current GPRSP priorities is complicated by the lack of a functional classification of public expenditure. Currently, the budget is presented in administrative form, allocating by spending ministries rather than by function. The PEMFAR, however, offers a proxy for functional classification by categorizing administrative spending according to the major government functions. 62

Public spending in Gabon is not being effectively directed towards the government’s objectives emerging from the GPRSP process. Based on the PEMFAR, it could be concluded that there are no clear shift towards GPRSP priorities. Expenditures in education and the health sectors have remained relatively static. Notably, education declined from 23 percent to 21 percent of public expenditure, between 1999 and 2003.

F. The Quality of Fêtes Tournantes Public Investment

The quality of the fêtes tournantes investment is low. Maintenance is often poor, as recurrent costs have not been budgeted for and the social return of many of these projects appears to be zero or even negative. In addition, it distorts the PIP by using one-third of the resources on projects with no clear priorities and appropriate appraisal.

The fêtes tournantes’ mechanism involves a national commission approving the project proposals of regional committees. These committees select projects in consultation with the communities; no separate project appraisal is done. Once the regional committee makes a proposal, a technical committee is in charge of allocating and monitoring the spending.

A recent private-sector audit of the 2002-03 fêtes tournantes revealed the following problems:63

Poor project documentation. More than 50 percent of the projects have no documentation supporting financial transactions. For those that do, the auditor ranked the quality of documentation, setting 15 as the maximum grade. The mean over 202 operations evaluated was only 2.3. Only seven operations received a grade higher than 7.

Weak programming. There are many unfinished projects or projects that have failed, leaving empty buildings. This reflects serious weaknesses in project planning. No appraisal evaluation is done.

Variable project quality. While the sewage work appears to be done properly, the quality of buildings and houses is poor and many residential and commercial systems malfunction. Some buildings are unusable.

Costs have been high. The audit found ample evidence of overcharging. Often prices charged are twice as much as current prices. The cost of a project in Gabon was higher than that of a comparable project in neighboring countries.

Weak quality control. Lack of ex-ante and ex-post evaluation is compounded by absence of technicians in the technical commissions in charge of control.

G. Conclusions

The PIP needs a severe makeover. The current system is undermining Gabon’s goals of alleviating poverty and stimulating growth. An overhaul of the public investment system is needed to support the GPRSP strategy recently presented.

The quality of public investment has been low. It has been inefficient and it is inconsistent with the priorities emerging from the GPRSP. The poor results of the fêtes tournantes and the fact that it is managed outside the circuit of the investment budget further weaken PIP performance.

In the context of the PRSP and the current oil windfalls, improving public expenditure management is critical to raising the quality of public spending. The authorities need to take a number of steps highlighted in the recently completed fiscal ROSC and the PEMFAR. These measures include:(i) introduce a full functional classification of expenditure to allow better tracking of expenditure, including against the priorities established in the PRSP; (ii) strengthen the investment budget preparation and execution process by heightening the role of the three-year public investment program; (iii) improve the coordination between the current and investment budgets and, over time, integrate them in a single consistent mediumterm expenditure framework; (iv) strengthen further the role of the public tender office to reinforce ex-ante quality control; and (v) eliminate the Fêtes Tournantes. It is essential that for the 2007 budget the fêtes tournantes are folded into the PIP. All the resources should be available for the PIP and consistent with the PRSP priorities.

References

  • Groupe 2 AC, 2005. “Audit technique et financier des projets financés par le Fonds pour le 17 août (exercices 2002 et 2003),” (November), mimeo.

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  • Gupta, Sanjeev, and Martij Verhoeven, 2001, “The Efficiency of Government Expenditure, Experiences from Africa,” Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 23, pp. 43367

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    • Export Citation
  • Santiago, Herrera, and Gaobo Pang, 2005, “Efficiency of Public Spending in Developing Countries: An Efficiency Frontier Approach,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3645 (Washington: World Bank).

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Appendix: Summary of the Tax System, as of End-March 2006

Gabon: Summary of the Tax System, as of End-March 2006

(All amounts are in CFA francs; unless otherwise indicated)

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Source: Directorate-General of Taxation.
54

Prepared by Oscar Melhado.

55

The fêtes tournantes refer to the spending associated with the rotating independence day celebrations.

56

The PEMFAR was presented to the authorities in January 2006. It integrates procurement and financial management with the standard public expenditure review. The aim is to enhance the country’s understanding of public financial management arrangements and reform challenges.

57

Budgetary allocations for the fêtes tournantes existed during the 1970s, but were suspended during the 1980s.

58

The calendar of provinces is the following:2002- Nyanga & Ogooué, 2003- Ngounié & Moyen Ogooué, 2004- Haut Ogooué & Ogooué Lolo, 2005- Woleu Ntem & Ogooué Maritime, and 2006- Estuaire (currently in process).

59

At the moment of drafting this paper, the government was looking at choices to finance a hospital in the university. The preliminary estimate of the investment was about US$83 million.

60

It has to be acknowledged that the literacy rate has sharply increased from 71 percent in 2002 to 85 percent in 2005.

61

During 2002-03 the repetition rate was about 37 percent in primary schools, 30 percent in secondary, and 26 percent in secondary technical schools. The proportion of promotions to a higher class was on average only 36 percent of students.

62

This estimation includes current and capital spending and excludes debt payments and the fêtes tournantes, which could not be easily associated with particular functions.

63

The audit, conducted by the firm 2AC, was presented in November 2005; however, it has not been published.