Abstract
The report on Thailand’s Observance of Standards and Codes examines Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Thailand possesses a well-developed macroeconomic statistical system, with much strength that spans all of the datasets assessed in this report. The government clearly recognizes the importance of good statistics for effective decision making in all sectors of the economy, and it is well accepted at all levels of the statistics-producing agencies that quality builds trust and, thus, is a cornerstone of statistical work.
RESPONSE BY THE AUTHORITIES TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE IMF’S ROSC—DATA MODULE MISSION
I. General Response
The Thai authorities have relied extensively on macroeconomic data for their work in monitoring and analyzing economic and financial developments, as well as for policy implementation purposes. Indeed, statistics-compiling agencies in Thailand have long recognized the need and importance of producing a high-quality statistics series as part of effective policymaking. The authorities therefore have committed to achieving international standards and best practices in statistical compilation and dissemination. In 1996, Thailand adopted the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and the participation in the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module in 2005 marked yet another important milestone of progress for Thailand in this area.
In this connection, the Thai authorities would like to extend their sincerest thanks and appreciation for the hard work, dedication, and interest of all the assessment team members in their tasks of assessing four macroeconomic datasets, namely, National Accounts, Government Finance, Monetary, and Balance of Payments Statistics. They also appreciate receiving the close cooperation and constructive advice prior to and throughout the actual assessment. The assessment has resulted in a comprehensive report on Thailand’s current statistical compilation practices and important recommendation guidelines from which the authorities can further improve their practices accordingly.
The ROSC assessment team closely worked together with the Thai authorities and examined virtually all aspects of Thailand’s statistical compilation practices. The results have confirmed the authorities’ strong dedication to achieve high-quality data, as reaffirmed by the mission’s recognition of Thailand’s practices with regard to transparency, professionalism, ethical standards, quality of source data, and assistance provided to data users. Nevertheless, the authorities concur with the recommendations that there is still room for further improvement in certain areas, including the scope and revision policies.
The following sections contain responses from each of the authorities directly responsible for the corresponding datasets.
II. Response by the National Economic and Social Development Board
A. National Accounts
Recommendations by the IMF
Change the base year for the volume figures every year or, at least, every five years.
Expedite full conversion to the 1993 SNA.
Disseminate a more detailed methodological guide for national accounts in hard copy and/or on the NESDB’s website.
The Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) plans to change the base year to the annual chained volume measure by the end of 2006. The NESDB, in cooperation with a group of external experts, already had finalized the study on the adoption of the most appropriate approach to better reflect the value at constant price. On November 18, 2005, the result of this study was presented to participants in the academic workshop on “Shift of the base year for the constant price estimates,” at which chained volume measure was widely supported. In this regard, the NESDB agreed and, hence, decided to implement annual chain-linking. In the meantime, the NESDB will continue to inform and educate the public, especially data users, on the introduction of the annual chain-linked indices.
With regard to the full conversion of the 1993 SNA, the NESDB plans to complete at least the production accounts by the end of 2007. Some implementation has already been put in place as mentioned in Volume III. On progress to date, the experimental set of SUTS with 90 industries and 120 products has been completed, using basic prices to record output. The 1993 SNA working group has been established with the responsibility to coordinate with other data-producing agencies in order to expedite the implementation process.
In response to the IMF’s recommendation, the methodological guide is under the process of being improved and updated. The document will be available both in Thai and English and is planned for release by early 2006 via website and hard copy.
Subsequent to the mission’s recommendations, the NESDB has taken many immediate actions and introduced changes to the national accounts compiling process in order to enhance its data quality. These include the dissemination of seasonally adjusted GDP series at current market prices and annotation on revised figures for the quarterly GDP and annual National Income Statistics. The NESDB has also released the English, in addition to the Thai, version of the commentary to the annual National Income Statistics, the Flow-of-Funds Accounts, and the Capital Stock of Thailand. Moreover, all current issues of the NESDB’s publications pertaining to national accounts statistics have included specific contact points for each subject field, and this practice will also apply to future issues.
III. Response by the Fiscal Policy Office, the Ministry of Finance
A. Government Finance Statistics
Recommendations by the IMF
Explore ways to include monthly data for the seven extrabudgetary funds that are excluded from the 2004/05 and 2005/06 data, so that the monthly (and quarterly) time series for the consolidated central government are consistent and comparable with the earlier data.
Resolve problems with the GFMIS so that monthly (and quarterly) accrual data can be produced for the budgetary central government.
The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) meets regularly with the State Enterprise Policy Office (SEPO), the BOT, and the NESDB to discuss data pertaining to all state enterprises, as well as seven autonomous government agencies. As for the 2004/05 annual data, the FPO will use the data from the NESDB and/or the SEPO in order to ensure data consistency. However, the monthly historical series is not yet available. Such data series could be available from the Government Finance Management Information System (GFMIS), once fully implemented.
On the GFMIS, the FPO holds regular meetings among four government agencies (BOT, NESDB, the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and the Bureau of the Budget) together with the representative of the GFMIS project to resolve problems with the GFMIS so that source data on accrual basis can be produced by 2007 for the budgetary central government. A work plan has been set as follows:
Mapping between GFS classification and accounting code;
Developing an application for GFS data; and
Conducting GFS dataset accuracy test.
IV. Response by the Bank of Thailand
A. Monetary Statistics
Recommendations by the IMF
Include financial derivatives now recorded as off-balance sheet positions in monetary statistics.
Reconstruct the monetary statistics following the MFSM as far back in time as possible.
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) recognizes the importance of including financial derivatives transactions in monetary statistics, and has included, as part of its work plan, further enhancement of the quality of monetary statistics. The dissemination of monetary statistics inclusive of financial derivatives is projected to start in 2007.
The BOT intends to publish on the BOT website at the end of March 2006 the historical series as far back as year 2003. During the transition to MFSM, the BOT will accommodate data users by providing the pre-MFSM until the end of 2006.
B. Balance of Payments Statistics
Recommendations by the IMF
Develop comprehensive data sources (covering unrecorded trade, services, income, transfers, and the financial account) to complement the existing administrative data from the International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS).
Strengthen the BOT’s legal mandate to compile and disseminate balance of payments statistics, including provisions for mandatory reporting of BOP source data by all resident units.
The BOT concurs with the IMF’s recommendations that a more comprehensive data source to complement ITRS needs to be developed to expand the coverage and comply with accrual accounting basis. The BOT fully recognizes limitations of the ITRS and attempts have been made to seek and incorporate supplementary data into the BOP compilation. This includes surveys on the International Investment Position, External Debt, as well as the recent surveys on trade credit and freight and insurance for imports/exports. In addition, administrative data from public and state enterprises and direct reports are also used to supplement data obtained from the ITRS. The BOT also acknowledges that additional data sources should be developed to enhance data collection for certain items in services, income, and transfer accounts. To this extent, a working group was formed to prioritize and to study the feasibility of each subject. The BOT also plans to implement the result of the aforementioned study in phases according to the priority of each item. The first phase, expected to start in July 2006, will focus on obtaining supplementary data sources for significant value item of services and income accounts and will be completed by 2008.
The issue of legal mandate has been addressed and acknowledged by government agencies. As part of a recent reform, the NSO has drafted an amendment to the Statistics Act to ensure a legal mandate for other individual government agency to compile and disseminate national statistics under its own responsibility at present. The legal mandate for the BOT to compile and disseminate BOP statistics and to conduct relevant surveys will also be applied.