Thailand
Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Module, Response by the Authorities, Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF)

The report on Thailand’s Observance of Standards and Codes examines Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Thailand possesses a well-developed macroeconomic statistical system, with much strength that spans all of the datasets assessed in this report. The government clearly recognizes the importance of good statistics for effective decision making in all sectors of the economy, and it is well accepted at all levels of the statistics-producing agencies that quality builds trust and, thus, is a cornerstone of statistical work.

Abstract

The report on Thailand’s Observance of Standards and Codes examines Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Thailand possesses a well-developed macroeconomic statistical system, with much strength that spans all of the datasets assessed in this report. The government clearly recognizes the importance of good statistics for effective decision making in all sectors of the economy, and it is well accepted at all levels of the statistics-producing agencies that quality builds trust and, thus, is a cornerstone of statistical work.

I. Overall Assessment

1. Thailand subscribed to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) on August 9, 1996, and started posting its metadata on the Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) on September 19, 1996. Thailand is in observance of the SDDS, meeting the specifications for coverage, periodicity, timeliness, and the dissemination of advance release calendars.1 Thailand does not use any of the flexibility options for timeliness and periodicity allowed by the SDDS. Appendix I provides an overview of Thailand’s dissemination practices compared to the SDDS.

2. The Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module contains the following main observations. Thailand possesses a well-developed macroeconomic statistical system, with many strengths that span all of the datasets assessed in this report. The government clearly recognizes the importance of good statistics for effective decision-making in all sectors of the economy, and it is well accepted at all levels of the statistics-producing agencies that quality builds trust and, thus, is a cornerstone of statistical work. The professionalism of staff—and the pride they take in their work—are notable. The public has ready access to data and metadata, including through the Internet, and prompt and knowledgeable support service is available to users. The statistical agencies currently are at various stages of implementing international best practice methodologies; overall, the statistical system would benefit from an acceleration of this activity. In addition, it would be desirable to strengthen the source data on which the aggregate macroeconomic statistics are based, and to strengthen what, in some instances, risks becoming an outdated legal framework for the collection, compilation, and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics. There is some scope, too, to strengthen statistical revision policies and practices. Section II provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-part scale. This is followed by staff’s recommendations in Section III. The authorities’ response to this report and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents.

3. In applying the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), July 2003, the remainder of this section presents the mission’s main conclusions. The presentation is done at the level of the DQAF’s quality dimensions, by agency for the first two dimensions and across datasets for the remaining four.

4. With regard to prerequisites of quality, various laws and decrees authorize the Bank of Thailand (BOT), the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), and the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) in the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to collect, compile, and disseminate the relevant statistics. These laws do not necessarily give exclusive authority to the relevant agency to collect the particular statistics in which they specialize, but, as a matter of practice, cooperation among the agencies is effective and there has been little overlapping of responsibilities. In the case of balance of payments statistics, no explicit mandate is given to the BOT to compile these statistics, adversely affecting their comprehensiveness. The BOT relies to some degree on foreign exchange control legislation for the necessary powers to collect comprehensive balance of payments source data, which may become increasingly problematic over time if exchange controls are further liberalized. Resources are broadly commensurate with the present needs of the statistical system, although additional resources would permit best-practice methodologies to be implemented at a faster pace. The agencies devote considerable attention to monitoring the overall quality of the statistical program and ensure that statistics remain relevant to users’ needs through regular contacts with the users. As to assurances of integrity, a combination of legislation and tradition affords a high degree of independence to the agencies for their statistical work. They are free to choose methodologies and appropriate data sources. Staff are well trained, exhibiting a high degree of professionalism in their work. The terms and conditions under which statistics are compiled are readily available to the public. The government does not have access to statistics prior to their release to the public. Staff of the statistical agencies are held to a high ethical standard in the conduct of their work.

5. Concepts and definitions, in general, are methodologically sound, and broadly conform to internationally accepted standards. Monetary statistics follow the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM). Balance of payments statistics conform to the Balance of Payments Manual, fifth edition (BPM5). Data on quarterly and annual GDP generally conform to the System of National Accounts 1968 (1968 SNA), but conversion to the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) has begun and some 1993 SNA changes have been introduced. Government finance statistics are in transition to the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001), with full implementation expected by 2009. In the cases of national accounts and government finance statistics, full implementation of the 1993 SNA and GFSM 2001 would bring the scope of the statistics fully into line with accepted international methodologies. In the case of balance of payments statistics, a need exists to expand the scope by developing data sources for unrecorded trade and by ensuring better coverage in the areas of services, income, and transfers. The classification of financial derivatives in the monetary statistics needs to conform with the MFSM. In general, the basis for recording stocks and flows would benefit from a full adoption of accrual methods and greater reliance on market prices.

6. The accuracy and reliability of macroeconomic statistics, while generally sound, are adversely affected in some instances by deficiencies in source data collection programs. For instance, data sourcing for balance of payments statistics could depend less on the International Transactions Reporting System (ITRS) with more recourse to alternative sources. More reliable source data for household expenditure would improve the national accounts, while government finance statistics would benefit from more timely actual data on local governments. Procedures for assessing source data are adequate, as are statistical techniques and procedures to assess and validate intermediate data and statistical outputs. However, the base year for constant price national accounts statistics is far too old, and should be updated. Studies and analyses of revisions are routinely carried out, although the results of revision studies could be used more effectively to improve preliminary balance of payments data.

7. As to serviceability, the periodicity and timeliness of the statistics meet or exceed SDDS standards. Datasets are internally consistent, and there is broad consistency across datasets. Because of the recent adoption of MFSM methodology for monetary statistics, the new series are available only from January 2005; however, the main aggregates are reconcilable between both the old and new series. Data revisions generally follow a regular and transparent schedule, preliminary and revised data are clearly identified, but studies and analyses of revisions normally are not published.

8. The statistical agencies provide users with a high level of accessibility to data and metadata, primarily through their websites and regular publications. Data are presented clearly and, for the most part, with appropriate detail. Statistical publications and websites identify suitable contact points for user assistance. Prompt and knowledgeable support services are available. With the exception of national accounts, suitably detailed metadata are readily available to users.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

9. Assessment of the quality of four macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments—was conducted using the DQAF, July 2003. In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements and using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ac. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3ad.

Table 1.

Thailand: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results

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Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies.Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances.
Table 2a.

Thailand: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—National Economic and Social Development Board

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Table 2b.

Thailand: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Fiscal Policy Office in the Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c.

Thailand: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Bank of Thailand

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Table 3a.

Thailand: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Thailand: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3c.

Thailand: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3d.

Thailand: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

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III. Staff’s Recommendations

10. Based on the review of Thailand’s statistical practices, discussions with the data-producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission has a set of recommendations. They are designed to increase further Thailand’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of Thailand’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

National Accounts

  • Change the base year for the volume figures every year or, at least, every five years.

  • Expedite the full conversion to the 1993 SNA.

  • Disseminate a more detailed methodological guide for the national accounts in hard copy and/or on the NESDB’s website.

Government Finance Statistics

  • Explore ways to include monthly data for the seven extrabudgetary funds that are excluded from the 2004/05 and 2005/06 data, so that the monthly (and quarterly) time series for the consolidated central government are consistent and comparable with the earlier data.

  • Resolve problems with the GFMIS so that monthly (and quarterly) accrual data can be produced for the budgetary central government.

Monetary Statistics

  • Include financial derivatives now recorded as off-balance sheet positions in monetary statistics.

  • Reconstruct the monetary statistics following the MFSM as far back in time as possible.

Balance of Payments Statistics

  • Develop comprehensive data sources (covering unrecorded trade, services, income, transfers, and the financial account) to complement the existing administrative data from the ITRS.

  • Strengthen the BOT’s legal mandate to compile and disseminate balance of payments statistics, including provisions for mandatory reporting of balance of payments source data by all resident units.

Appendix I: Thailand: Practices Compared to the SDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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Note: Periodicity and timeliness: (D) daily; (W) weekly or with a lag of no more than one week from the reference data or the closing of the reference week; (M) monthly or with a lag of no more than one month; (Q) quarterly or with a lag of no more than one quarter; (A) annually; (…) not applicable; and (NLT) not later than.Italics indicate encouraged categories.
1

Due to technical problems with the implementation of the Government Finance Management Information System (GFMIS) and accrual accounting, the timeliness of the monthly data does not fully meet SDDS standards. This is indicated in a note on the National Data Summary Page on the DSBB.