This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides an assessment of Bangladesh’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. With some exceptions, the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of macroeconomic statistics meet the GDDS recommendations. Guided by GDDS plans for improvement, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the Bangladesh Bank have demonstrated commitment to continuously improve the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics.

Abstract

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) data module provides an assessment of Bangladesh’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. With some exceptions, the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of macroeconomic statistics meet the GDDS recommendations. Guided by GDDS plans for improvement, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the Bangladesh Bank have demonstrated commitment to continuously improve the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics.

I. Overall Assessment

1. The institutional framework for compiling and disseminating national accounts, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics, is shaped by longstanding tradition, which defines the responsibility of the three major macroeconomic statistics agencies, namely the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and the Bangladesh Bank (BB). The operations of the BBS, which by tradition is the central statistical agency in Bangladesh, is not governed by a comprehensive statistics law that gives it a clear mandate, operational autonomy, and resources.

2. The decision in 2001 to participate in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) represented an important step toward improving the statistical base. Appendix II provides an overview of Bangladesh’s dissemination practices compared to the GDDS. With some exceptions, the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of macroeconomic statistics meet the GDDS recommendations. Guided by the GDDS plans for improvement, the BBS, MOF, and BB have demonstrated commitment to continuously improve the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics. All statistical agencies are well placed to make further statistical progress through projects that are planned or already underway. Formal structures for interagency coordination have been established, most notably the group to review data consistency in the context of Bangladesh’s arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

3. Applying the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF July 2003), the mission reached the following conclusions:

4 Prerequisites of quality and assurances of integrity

  • No legislation clearly mandates the BBS as an independent agency responsible for coordinating the national statistical system. Its responsibility for national accounts statistics is acquired from the Rules of Business, 1996 of the government of Bangladesh and various pieces of legislation pertaining to the conduct of specific surveys. The absence of a legal mandate has hampered data collection and sharing of information among data producing agencies. The role of the National Statistics Council, an advisory body to the BBS, has been limited to the approval of national censuses and surveys. Computing resources are severely constrained. Data sharing among units within the BBS is not efficient. The BBS has no budget for regular statistical surveys, except for the census of the manufacturing industries and the agricultural census. The BBS has organized recently an ad hoc meeting with users of national accounts, although a more active consultation with users would further improve relevance of the national accounts. Although the BBS management recognizes the importance of quality, there is no detailed plan for fully implementing the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). Actions demonstrating quality awareness are reflected in a recent decision of the Minister of Planning (and concurrent Minister of Finance), who is administratively in charge of the BBS, to establish a special task force consisting of experts from both the public and private sectors to oversee the rebasing of national accounts and address other data issues. Data are provided to the Minister of Planning before release, a practice that is disclosed on the Bangladesh GDDS website of the IMF’s Data Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB). Prior access to the data, combined with the absence of predetermined dates for data release and delays in data dissemination, has adversely affected the public’s perception of the agency’s transparency. The lack of information on the choice and tenure of the Director General of the BBS may undermine the public image of BBS’s professional independence. Although not specifically mandated in the law, BBS staff safeguard data confidentiality as a basic element of good ethical standards embodied in the civil service code that guides their behavior.

  • The obligation of the MOF to collect, compile, and disseminate fiscal data is authorized under legal provisions. More recently, a unit at the Comptroller for Government Accounts (CGA) was given the responsibility for work on government finance statistics (GFS). The MOF’s operational control over most government transactions facilitates the flow of data from line ministries and agencies, except data for local governments and foreign funded development expenditures. Staff and computing resources are reasonably adequate for current needs, although staff need more training on GFS. There is no active program to solicit feedback from data users, although as part of the budget preparation process, the Minister of Finance meets with public groups in which data issues are discussed. MOF statistical policies and practices are guided by professional principles. To deepen professionalism, the MOF holds weekly seminars wherein staff and outside consultants make presentations on a variety of topics, including statistical practices. There is no evidence of political interference in the compilation and dissemination of fiscal data. For information purposes, the Minister of Finance is provided with the data prior to their release. This practice is reported in the GDDS metadata on the DSBB. The MOF does not provide advance notice of methodological changes, but explanations are provided at the time changes are introduced. MOF staff are subject to the code of conduct for civil servants.

  • The compilation and dissemination of the balance of payments and monetary statistics by the BB is based on the Bangladesh Bank Order, 1972,1 which empowers the BB to request data from banking institutions and other natural or juridical person. Although the law does not specifically make reference to the compilation of the balance of payments and monetary statistics as the main purposes for data collection, by tradition, the BB has assumed responsibility for these datasets. Data sharing and coordination among departments in the BB for the compilation of monetary statistics is hampered by paper-based and manual processes, which also reflects an inadequate computer and technology support. As regards the balance of payments statistics, procedures are in place for the timely flow of information within the BB and between agencies, as exemplified by an interagency committee on balance of payments statistics projections where data issues are discussed. Confidentiality of individual reporters’ data is assured in the law and in practice. The BB encourages data reporting by conducting seminars at the BB Training Academy for staff of banks. Feedback from users could be more actively sought to monitor the relevance of the balance of payments and monetary statistics. Quality awareness is demonstrated through access to expert advice on data quality from international and local experts, staff training, and periodic reviews. Although no formal legal provision supports the professional independence of the BB, decisions on data sources and techniques are based solely on statistical considerations. Data are provided to the MOF and occasionally to other senior officials, for information purposes, before they are released to the public; this practice is disclosed in the GDDS metadata posted on the DSBB. Advance notice of major changes in the methodology is not given, but explanatory notes are provided when revisions are carried out. Staff Regulations, 2003 promotes strong ethical standards.

5. All datasets assessed in this report have good methodological foundations. Improvements in scope, classification, and sectorization are needed in varying degrees. The national accounts and GFS are most affected by incomplete coverage, while classification issues affect all datasets except the balance of payments. As regards the basis for recording, all datasets have departures from international standards. GFS data are on a cash basis, but the MOF has adopted a migration path to accrual accounting as required in the GFSM 2001.

6. The accuracy and reliability of the national accounts are hampered by shortcomings in data sources and in statistical techniques to deal with source data. The balance of payments and GFS need to strengthen their data sources, while assessment of source data across all datasets, except the GFS, could be improved. Revision studies are carried out for all datasets and used to inform the statistical processes.

7. As regards serviceability, all datasets covered in this report are compiled within the periodicity recommended in the GDDS. The timeliness of dissemination of the GFS in particular needs significant improvement to meet the GDDS recommendations. There is significant room for improving the consistency within the dataset for GFS, and the consistency between monetary statistics and GFS in recording domestic bank financing of the government. Revision policies and practices are sound for the national accounts, but serviceability of the GFS, monetary, and balance of payments statistics could be strengthened by informing users if data are preliminary and still subject to revisions.

8. Efforts have been made in recent years to improve the accessibility of macroeconomic data as indicated by the creation of agency websites. However, the data and metadata for national accounts are currently not posted on these websites. Greater efforts to release the data simultaneously to all users and to adopt a preannounced schedule of data release will boost accessibility with concomitant positive effects on the transparency of the statistical system.

9. Section II of this report provides a summary assessment by agency and dataset based on a four-point scale. This is followed by staff recommendations in Section III. The authorities’ response to this report, the results of a survey of data users in Bangladesh, and a volume of detailed assessments are presented in separate documents.

II. Assessment by Agency and Dataset

10. Assessment of the quality of four macroeconomic datasets—national accounts, government finance, monetary, and balance of payments statistics—was conducted using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF July 2003). In this section, the results are presented at the level of the DQAF elements and using a four-point rating scale (Table 1). Assessments of the prerequisites of data quality and the assurances of integrity (Dimensions “0” and “1” of the DQAF) are presented in Tables 2ac. For each dataset, the assessment of methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility (Dimensions “2” to “5” of the DQAF) are shown in Tables 3ad.

Table 1.

Bangladesh: Data Quality Assessment Framework July 2003—Summary Results

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Practice observed: current practices generally in observance meet or achieve the objectives of DQAF internationally accepted statistical practices without any significant deficiencies. Practice largely observed: some departures, but these are not seen as sufficient to raise doubts about the authorities’ ability to observe the DQAF practices. Practice largely not observed: significant departures and the authorities will need to take significant action to achieve observance. Practice not observed: most DQAF practices are not met. Not applicable: used only exceptionally when statistical practices do not apply to a country’s circumstances
Table 2a.

Bangladesh: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

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Table 2b.

Bangladesh: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Ministry of Finance

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Table 2c.

Bangladesh: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 0 and 1—Bangladesh Bank

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Amended through the Bangladesh Bank (Amendment) Act, 2003.

Table 3a.

Bangladesh: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—National Accounts

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Table 3b.

Bangladesh: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Government Finance Statistics

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Table 3c.

Bangladesh: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Monetary Statistics

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Table 3d.

Bangladesh: Assessment of Data Quality—Dimensions 2 to 5—Balance of Payments Statistics

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APPENDIX I

Staff’s Recommendations

11. Based on the review of Bangladesh’s statistical practices, discussions with the data producing agencies, and responses from data users (see Appendix III of the Detailed Assessments volume), the mission has produced a set of recommendations. They are designed to increase Bangladesh’s adherence to internationally accepted statistical practices and would, in the mission’s view, enhance the analytical usefulness of Bangladesh’s statistics. Some additional technical suggestions are included in the Detailed Assessments volume.

Cross-cutting Recommendations
  • Enact a comprehensive statistical law that embodies the general policy of government with regard to the collection, processing, compilation, and dissemination of statistics. Such law should give a clear mandate, operational autonomy, and resources to the BBS as an agency responsible for the compilation and dissemination of official statistics.

  • Increase the use of agency websites to disseminate data and metadata in addition to paper publication. Metadata should provide more information on the terms and conditions under which statistics are compiled and disseminated, including the policy on advance access to the data prior to public release and identifying the recipients. As an immediate step, post the GDDS metadata on the agency websites or create a hyperlink to the Bangladesh’s GDDS page on the IMF’s DSBB, as has been recently done by the MOF.

  • Release the data simultaneously to all users. If the policy of prior access to the data is deemed unavoidable in the Bangladesh setting, the names of officials or agencies who receive prior access should at least be widely disseminated.

  • Establish, disseminate, and adhere to advance calendars for the release of data. In the interim, agencies should closely adhere to an internal deadline for data release. Even under the existing approval policy, the BBS should still be well placed to adhere to regular dates of data release if the approval by the Minister of Planning is time bound (e.g., within 24 hours or on a lapse of time basis).

  • Implement an active program of consultation with data users.

  • Continue to strengthen inter-agency coordination to improve the consistency of macroeconomic statistics, particularly data on bank financing of the government in the monetary statistics and GFS. Improved coordination is also needed in the ongoing project to establish a comprehensive debt database.

National accounts
High priority
  • Introduce a comprehensive data collection program to allow direct estimation of all national accounts aggregates; establish and maintain a business register for all economic units.

  • Implement sound statistical techniques to be in accordance with the international guidelines for compiling volume measures of GDP and for measuring the nonobserved economy, the household consumption, the changes in inventories, and the consumption of fixed capital.

Other
  • Improve the assessment and validation of the administrative source data and other intermediate results, investigate the statistical discrepancies through a supply and use framework.

  • Improve the timeliness of the national accounts data in line with the GDDS recommendation.

Government finance statistics
High Priority
  • Implement the migration plan to adopt the GFSM 2001 methodology. Continue the commitment to adopt accrual accounting.

  • Expand the scope of GFS to include the local government and all externally-financed development projects in budgetary accounts.

  • Intensify efforts to reduce the use of suspense accounts and clear them at the end of the fiscal year.

Other
  • Improve the timeliness of GFS in line with the GDDS recommendation.

  • Exclude the three nonfinancial public enterprises—the railways, the postal office, and telephone and telegraph—from budgetary accounts. Classify correctly capital transfers to these three nonfmancial public enterprises in the budgetary accounts.

  • Correct the practice of classifying subsidy items as net lending.

  • Reinforce review of monthly data to improve accuracy and make them more comprehensive.

  • Continue current work to establish a comprehensive debt database at the MOF under the Resource and Debt Management Wing. Also, separately compile comprehensive data on government-guaranteed debt.

  • In conjunction with work by the Resource and Debt Management Wing to establish a comprehensive debt database, prepare a data quality study by comparing changes in the stock of outstanding debt at the end of the fiscal year with financing flows reported to the budget during the year.

  • Reinforce training program for staff to include formal seminars and courses, and nominate participants for IMF GFSM 2001 methodology courses.

Monetary statistics
High priority
  • Adopt measures towards computerization of the accounting and other operational processes at the BB. The ongoing Central Bank Strengthening Project will greatly support this effort.

  • Introduce electronic formats for the returns and annex tables submitted by banks and nonbank depository corporations to the SD. Transmit the BB’s underlying accounting records in an electronic format from the ABD to the SD. Introduce electronic consistency checks for monetary data. Provide more computers for the compilation of monetary statistics.

Other
  • Reclassify the BB accounts for the Bangladesh Railway, the Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board, and Bangladesh Post Office from central government accounts to accounts of nonfinancial public enterprises.

  • Record on an accrual basis interest earned on BB’s credit to government in the form of special treasury bills.

  • Instruct the banks to record their holdings of treasury bonds at market prices or fair values, rather than at face value.

  • Record accounts in overdraft at the BB as loans to the respective sector, rather than netting them from the aggregated balance of deposit accounts.

  • Instruct the Off-site Supervision Department to provide regularly to the SD supplementary data that can be used to verify the accuracy of the information submitted by banks for monetary statistics purposes.

Balance of payments
High priority
  • Conduct specialized surveys in the areas of transportation and travel to supplement the ITRS system.

  • Promote the utilization of data derived from the ITRS to strengthen the verification and reliability of data derived from surveys.

Other
  • Initiate efforts to incorporate data on goods imports derived from customs returns in the balance of payments. In this regard, review the possibility of using customs data on border trade.

  • Review the measurement of goods for processing to ensure conformity with the BPM5 guidelines.

  • Improve procedures for estimating freight and insurance on goods imports and technical assistance.

  • Incorporate the financial transactions of offshore banks in the balance of payments.

  • Identify clearly preliminary and/or revised data in Economic Trends.

  • Present quarterly balance of payments statistics data in the BB’s publications on a calendar year basis (i.e., I Quarter, II Quarter, etc,).

  • Provide more details of the various accounts in the balance of payments statistics tables presented in the Economic Trends.

APPENDIX II

Table 1.

Bangladesh: Practices Compared to the GDDS Coverage, Periodicity, and Timeliness of Data

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Italics indicate encouraged categories.

Dissemination as part of a high-frequency (e.g. monthly) publication. N/A = Not applicable

Bangladesh: IMF Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes-Data Module (Data ROSC)
1

Amended through the Bangladesh (Amendment) Act, 2003.